Category: Issue Comments

Issue Comments

RY.PR.O

This issue drifted into negative-YTW territory today, with a closing quotation of $25.70-78.

The redemption schedule is:

  • Redemption      2004-08-24      2005-08-23  26.000000
  • Redemption      2005-08-24      2006-08-23  25.750000
  • Redemption      2006-08-24      2007-08-23  25.500000
  • Redemption      2007-08-24      2008-08-23  25.250000
  • Redemption      2008-08-24   INFINITE DATE  25.000000

The redemption scenarios have been calculated by HIMIPref™ as:

 

  • Call  2006-09-28 YTM: -3.21 % [Restricted: -0.26 %] (Prob: 25.13 %)
  • Call  2006-11-27 YTM: 2.46 % [Restricted: 0.61 %] (Prob: 7.18 %)
  • Call  2007-05-26 YTM: 4.45 % [Restricted: 3.29 %] (Prob: 5.22 %)
  • Call  2007-09-23 YTM: 3.83 % [Restricted: 3.83 %] (Prob: 6.35 %)
  • Call  2008-09-23 YTM: 4.14 % [Restricted: 4.14 %] (Prob: 5.29 %)
  • Limit Maturity  2036-08-29 YTM: 5.38 % [Restricted: 5.38 %] (Prob: 50.82 %)

One interesting thing about this analysis is the inclusion of the scenario with the end-date of 2007-05-26. The HIMIPref™ constant OPTION_EXERCISE_CALCULATION_INCREMENT_PROBABILITY is currently set to 5% – therefore, since the Option calculation probability has crept up that much higher by 2007-05-26 than it was on the date of the previous entry in the optionCalculationList dated 2006-11-27 (which in turn was sufficiently higher than the previous threshold dated 2006-09-28), the redemption scenario is included in the calculation of portfolioYield

This issue pays $1.375 and given the $0.25 decline in call price annually, the net annual cost to Royal of the money is $1.125 – a tad more expensive than their RY.PR.A issue, but cheaper to them than RY.PR.B! I can’t say I’d bet much on it being around for more than two more years … but who knows? Maybe comparable new issues will be paying more than 5.5% dividends at that time.

Which, of course, is what makes this business fun!

Issue Comments

RY.PR.S

RBC announced on August 25 that this issue will be redeemed at a price of $26.00 on October 6.

The total issue size is 10-million shares, representing $250-million in bank capital.

It was paying $1.525 (issue yield = 6.1%) and its first day of trading was June 26, 2001.

The call schedule was:

  • Redemption      2006-08-24      2007-08-23  26.000000
  • Redemption      2007-08-24      2008-08-23  25.750000
  • Redemption      2008-08-24      2009-08-23  25.500000
  • Redemption      2009-08-24      2010-08-23  25.250000
  • Redemption      2010-08-24      2999-12-29  25.000000

Although they could have saved themselves $0.25 annually on the call price by waiting, Royal would have had to have paid the $1.525 dividend at the same time, for a net cost of $1.275. Since their recent RY.PR.A issue pays $1.1125 and RY.PR.B pays $1.175, it’s not too surprising that such an expensive issue is being called now.

Update 2006-09-27 : See also the August 11, 2006 Comment.

Issue Comments

RY.PR.K

The Yield-to-Worst on this issue went negative on 2006-08-21, joining BMO.PR.G to be the second member of the “Operating Retractibles” index with negative YTW.

The option schedule on the RY.PR.Ks is:

  • Redemption      2004-08-24      2005-08-23  25.750000
  • Redemption      2005-08-24      2006-08-23  25.500000
  • Redemption      2006-08-24      2007-08-23  25.250000
  • Redemption      2007-08-24   INFINITE DATE  25.000000
  • Redemption      2003-08-24      2004-08-23  26.000000
  • Retraction      2008-08-24   INFINITE DATE  25.000000

And the (pre-tax) YTW Scenario analysis is:

  • Call  2006-09-20 YTM: 9.13 % [Restricted: 0.75 %] (Prob: 13.55 %)
  • Call  2006-09-23 YTM: -2.32 % [Restricted: -0.21 %] (Prob: 8.85 %)
  • Call  2006-12-19 YTM: 2.70 % [Restricted: 0.89 %] (Prob: 5.21 %)
  • Soft Maturity  2008-08-23 YTM: 3.87 % [Restricted: 3.87 %] (Prob: 72.39 %)

This is another one of those situations which may ultimately force me to define yet another yield measure: “Yield-to-Best-For-Issuer”. The YTW is based on an immediate call at $25.25, which would lead to an absolute loss of money from yesterday’s closing bid of $25.40 (never mind the closing offer of $25.59!). If Royal waits a year prior to calling, however, they will save themselves $0.25 on the call price and only pay $1.1750 in extra dividends for that period. They can calculate their net cost of funds for the next twelve months, then as less than $1.00 on a $25.00 loan, which is considerably below what they would have to pay on a new perpetual issue (although another retractible might possibly be competitive: CGI.PR.C pays $0.975 and is quoted at $25.45-74).

No matter how it’s sliced, it’s very unlikely that you’ll see HIMIPref™ recommending this issue in the near future … too short-term, for one thing.

Issue Comments

BMO.PR.G

This issue became the only “Operating Retractible” to have a negative bid-Yield-to-Worst (YTW) on August 17, with a bid price of 25.36.

 It was issued in the spring of 1998 and has an annual coupon of $1.20. The option schedule is:

  • Redemption      2005-08-25      2006-08-24  25.500000
  • Redemption      2006-08-25      2007-08-24  25.250000
  • Redemption      2007-08-25   INFINITE DATE  25.000000
  • Retraction      2008-05-25   INFINITE DATE  26.040000

And the calculation of YTW is:

  • Call  2006-09-16 YTM: 10.41 % [Restricted: 0.86 %] (Prob: 12.31 %)
  • Call  2006-09-24 YTM: -0.43 % [Restricted: -0.05 %] (Prob: 9.32 %)
  • Soft Maturity  2008-05-24 YTM: 3.90 % [Restricted: 3.90 %] (Prob: 78.38 %)

And the cash flow for YTW is:

  • 2006-09-24  FINAL DIVIDEND   0.10   1.000451   0.10
  • 2006-09-24        MATURITY  25.25   1.000451  25.26

Which at least has the advantage of being simple!

HIMIPref™ does not consider the investment merits (or lack thereof!) of this issue when evaluating trades – the eligibleForPurchase function returns code “14” :

pseudoModifiedDuration (Worst) of buy side less than minimum setting

In other words, the issue is simple too short-term to be worth bothering with.

With an annual coupon of only $1.20 and with the bank having the chance to save $0.25 by waiting until the end of August, 2007 to redeem these shares, they will probably be around for another year, no matter what the term until the YTW scenario. From an investor’s perspective, however … Who’s putting a bid on these things???? The most likely scenario has the pre-tax cash flow analysis:

  • 2006-11-25        DIVIDEND   0.30   0.989474   0.30
  • 2007-02-25        DIVIDEND   0.30   0.979888   0.29
  • 2007-05-25        DIVIDEND   0.30   0.970703   0.29
  • 2007-08-25        DIVIDEND   0.30   0.961299   0.29
  • 2007-11-25        DIVIDEND   0.30   0.951985   0.29
  • 2008-02-25        DIVIDEND   0.30   0.942762   0.28
  • 2008-05-24  FINAL DIVIDEND   0.29   0.933925   0.27
  • 2008-05-24        MATURITY  25.00   0.933925  23.35
  • Total Cash Flows    27.0924
  • Total Present Value    25.3601
  • Discounting Rate 3.9026 % (Annual rate compounded semi-annually)

which doesn’t look all that great to me!

Update, 2008-9-9: And, as a matter of fact, the issue was called for redemption at par, effective 2007-8-27.

Issue Comments

W.PR.J

This is an interesting issue, a member of the PerpetualPremium index. It’s rated Pfd-2(low) by DBRS, where it was confirmed in their latest review of 2005-09-20. The issue had a closing quotation of 25.22-35 on the TSX on 2006-08-16.

The redemption schedule is:

  • Redemption      2004-07-15      2005-07-14  26.000000
  • Redemption      2005-07-15      2006-07-14  25.750000
  • Redemption      2006-07-15      2007-07-14  25.500000
  • Redemption      2007-07-15      2008-07-14  25.250000
  • Redemption      2008-07-15      2999-12-29  25.000000

so it is currently trading at a discount to its current redemption price, but at a discount to its future redemption price.
Analysis of the schedule and its current price gives this calculation for portfolioYield (from the bid-side of the market):

  • Call  2006-09-15 YTM: 26.33 % [Restricted: 2.16 %] (Prob: 10.32 %)
  • Call  2006-10-15 YTM: 15.67 % [Restricted: 2.57 %] (Prob: 5.69 %)
  • Call  2006-12-14 YTM: 10.54 % [Restricted: 3.46 %] (Prob: 5.64 %)
  • Call  2007-04-13 YTM: 8.02 % [Restricted: 5.27 %] (Prob: 5.05 %)
  • Call  2007-08-14 YTM: 6.23 % [Restricted: 6.19 %] (Prob: 7.39 %)
  • Call  2008-08-14 YTM: 5.42 % [Restricted: 5.42 %] (Prob: 7.06 %) 
  • Limit Maturity  2036-08-16 YTM: 5.60 % [Restricted: 5.60 %] (Prob: 58.87 %)

and the cash flow analysis of the YTW scenario is:

  • 2006-10-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.991246   0.35
  • 2007-01-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.977971   0.34
  • 2007-04-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.965158   0.34
  • 2007-07-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.952372   0.33
  • 2007-10-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.939618   0.33
  • 2008-01-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.927035   0.32
  • 2008-04-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.914755   0.32
  • 2008-07-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.902637   0.32
  • 2008-08-14  FINAL DIVIDEND   0.11   0.898677   0.10
  • 2008-08-14        MATURITY  25.00   0.898677  22.47

The averageTradingValue of the shares (as defined by HIMIPref™) is only 34,088 … too small to attract institutional players, but quite large enough for the occasional retail purchaser.

The issue now has the highest YTW of any issue in the HIMI Proprietary PerpetualPremium index – even if we measure the YTW from the ask price of 25.35.

 

HIMIPref News

RY.PR.S

This is an interesting issue, since it is quoted at $26.31-40, a fat premium despite being imminently callable.

Options on this issue are:

Redemption      2006-08-24      2007-08-23  26.000000
Redemption      2007-08-24      2008-08-23  25.750000
Redemption      2008-08-24      2009-08-23  25.500000
Redemption      2009-08-24      2010-08-23  25.250000
Redemption      2010-08-24      2999-12-29  25.000000

 And the YTW Analysis is:

Call  2006-09-23 YTM: -5.90 % [Restricted: -0.69 %] (Prob: 31.33 %)
Call  2006-12-09 YTM: 1.55 % [Restricted: 0.51 %] (Prob: 5.01 %)
Call  2007-09-23 YTM: 3.75 % [Restricted: 3.75 %] (Prob: 8.58 %)
Call  2008-09-23 YTM: 4.32 % [Restricted: 4.32 %] (Prob: 4.24 %)
Call  2009-09-23 YTM: 4.54 % [Restricted: 4.54 %] (Prob: 3.16 %)
Call  2010-09-23 YTM: 4.66 % [Restricted: 4.66 %] (Prob: 2.78 %)
Option Certainty  2035-02-14 YTM: 5.75 % [Restricted: 5.75 %] (Prob: 44.90 %)

Not the kind of issue I’d like to own! I can understand why some people might not wish to hit the current bid of $26.31 – they may have high transaction costs through their brokers, while a redemption will be done for free – buy why would anybody put a bid up there? It pays $1.525 annually with 10-million shares outstanding and Royal has done two perpetual issues this year with coupons of $1.1125 (RY.PR.A, 12-million shares) and $1.175 (RY.PR.B, 12-million shares) … so why would Royal keep it outstanding? Even a cost of $0.75 for brokerage commissions on a new issue sold entirely to retail through other dealers AND a $1.00 premium on early redemption is recouped pretty quickly with those kind of numbers.

And, as is shown below, it’s been a sell candidate for the past year, with a consistently low YTW (except for few pops in YTW recently, which don’t mean a lot given the short term to presumed maturity): RYPRS_YTW.jpg

There may be some who look at the very high calculated probability of this issue being extand for nearly thirty years in the future and take issue with the calculation. That’s entirely understandable. I do too. HIMIPref™ is known to have a certain amount of difficulty in calculating meaningful numbers for issues whose prices are constrained by a relatively near term call. For this reason, the parameters minCostBidPseudoModifiedDurationBuy, minWorstBidPseudoModifiedDurationBuy and minYTWModifiedDurationBuy were developed, which put a lower limit on three of the calculated modified duration measures. These parameters have been optimized to values of 1.02, 2.481 and 0.00, respectively (the most stringent condition is applied).

Due to these minima, RY.PR.S is not even eligible for purchase by HIMIPref™ regardless of valuation.

Another quibble that may be addressed is the question of declining redemption premia. It could be argued that due to the known decrease in redemption price of $0.25 annually for the next four years, it is proper to evaluate the chance of redemption of these shares as if they were paying $1.525 – $0.25 = $1.275 per annum, this being the net effect on Royal Bank’s cash flow of waiting a year. This calculated rate certainly is a lot closer to the coupon of the recent issues than the raw rate!

From an investment perspective it doesn’t make a lot a difference, though. Essentially, you are buying these in the hopes that the four year yield-to-worst of 4.66% will be realized. There is no hope of a capital gain – any decline in interest rates will simply increase the very high probability that the issue will be called. Given the hopelessness of the potential for capital gains with rate decreases, the high level of protection agains rate decreases is almost worthless.

Investors can do better. A look at the chart Premium-Perpetual Yield Curve, 2006-07-28 shows that there are plenty of alternatives.

Issue Comments

IQW.PR.C / IQW.PR.D Downgraded by DBRS

DBRS has announced that they have downgraded all series of the Quebecor World Inc. preferred shares to Pfd-4 with a negative trend (it was previously Pfd-4(high) with a negative trend.

DBRS cited a “greater than expected weakening of the financial profile”.

 HIMIPref subscribers will not be too concerned about this downgrade, as Hymas Investment Management does not recommend the purchase of anything that’s rated Pfd-4(high) or lower, and will only recommend Pfd-3 issues (of any sub-grade) in certain circumstances and in small amounts relative to portfolio size.

HIMIPref does, however, maintain the Quebecor World preferreds in its database: symbols IQW.PR.C and IQW.PR.D. These issues are recorded solely for the sake of continuity and have no influence on the calculation of yield curves.

Issue Comments

A sparkling debut for PWF.PR.L!

Well – sometimes I get things right! In the post Power Financial Series L, I made the prediction that “I think it will go to an immediate premium over issue price”.

 So far, so good! The issue traded 442,125 shares today (a value of over $11-million) and closed with a quote of 25.30-35. I suspect that there’s more to come, but I’ll wait until I’ve updated HIMIPref with the full universe of prices for August 4 before I start flapping my yap.

Data Changes

BC.PR.B / BC.PR.E

The terms of BC.PR.B changed effective 2006-05-01 with the annual dividend declining from $1.3125 to $1.0875. There’s a haircut for you!

Holders had the option to convert to the Ratchet Rate issue, BC.PR.E, and a little bit more than a quarter of the issue was converted. These issues become convertable into each other again on May 1, 2011 (although you may need to contact the company earlier!).

Changes have been put through on HIMIPref to reflect this conversion. Security codes are:

Issue Code
BC.PR.B (old) A38003
BC.PR.B (new) A38006
BC.PR.E A38007
Data Changes

BC.PR.C

The terms of this issue have changed, effective 2006-08-01, in accordance with the prospectus and the resetting of the coupon.

The coupon rate is now 4.65% until 2011-08-01. HIMIPref assumes that on that date it will become a Ratchet-Rate issue, since the company has discretion as to the fixed rate to which the issue will be reset.

No shares were converted to the Ratchet-Rate preferreds, since the holders of less than 2-million shares wished to exercise that privilege.

The old HIMIPref security code for this issue was A38004; following a “term change” reorganization, the new code is A38005.