Category: Market Action

The big news today was the FOMC announcement:

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment. In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in January, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $40 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $20 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Jeanna Smialek reports in the NYT:

The central bank’s policy statement set up a more rapid end to the monthly bond-buying program that the Fed has been using throughout the pandemic to keep money chugging through markets and to bolster growth. A fresh set of economic projections released on Wednesday showed that officials expect to raise interest rates, which are now set near-zero, three times next year.

“Economic developments and changes in the outlook warrant this evolution,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said of the decision to pull back on bond purchases more quickly.

By tapering off its bond buying faster, the Fed is doing less to stimulate the economy with each passing month, and putting the program on track to end completely in March.

Equity markets loved it:

Wall Street ended sharply higher on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March as it exits from policies enacted at the start of the health crisis. The TSX also rose, but gains were less impressive as many resource stocks lost ground.

Following its two-day policy meeting, the Fed signaled its inflation target has been met, and its announcement on ending the bond purchases paved the way for three quarter-percentage-point interest rate increases by the end of 2022.

All three main U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier losses and climbed into positive territory. Wall Street extended those gains as Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his news conference struck an upbeat tone about the U.S. economic recovery and expressed willingness to raise interest rates as necessary to control inflation.

“What the markets are saying is, because the Fed is increasing their taper, maybe they feel inflation is under control,” said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments in Atlanta. “They did what was expected. It’s going to add to the credibility for the Fed and that will be – on balance – neutral to positive for the markets.”

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 4.81%, equivalent to 6.25% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 3.50%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has declined slightly (and perhaps spuriously) to 275bp from the 280bp reported December 8.

Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. issued US perpetual sub-debt yesterday:

Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (TSX: BEP.UN; NYSE: BEP) and Brookfield Renewable Corporation (together with Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P., “Brookfield Renewable”) (NYSE, TSX: BEPC) today announced the closing of the issuance of a series of $260 million of fixed rate green perpetual subordinated notes (the “notes”). The notes, which have a coupon of 4.875%, will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “BEPI” and have the same accounting and rating treatment as our preferred LP units.

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and RBC Capital Markets, LLC acted as joint book-running managers for the offering.

This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the notes described herein, nor shall there be any sale of these notes in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

The notes were not offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in Canada or to any resident of Canada.

There’s an interesting kerfuffle amongst US bank agencies:

Earlier today, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) posted on its website a document, purportedly approved by the FDIC, requesting comment on bank mergers. No such document has been approved by the FDIC.

The FDIC has longstanding internal policies and procedures for circulating and conducting votes of its Board of Directors, and for issuing documents for publication in the Federal Register. In this case, there was no valid vote by the Board, and no such request for information and comment has been approved by the agency for publication in the Federal Register.

The FDIC has a proud 88-year history of Board members working together in a collegial manner. This history has spanned many Presidential administrations, and countless philosophical differences on substantive issues among Board members over the years. Notwithstanding the actions taken today, the FDIC expects this time-honored tradition of collegiality and comity to continue.

This reflects a blog post on consumerfinance.gov:

The law requires that the Director of the CFPB serve as a member of the Board of Directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC plays a critical role when it comes to reviewing bank mergers and ensuring financial stability in our country. As agencies across the government are rethinking their approach to combat anticompetitive consolidation and practices, the FDIC’s Board has voted to launch a review of the agency’s Bank Merger Act policies and invites the public to weigh in. We will accept comments for 60 days from the publication in the Federal Register.

The end of the post has a link to a joint statement by FDIC Director Martin J. Gruenberg and Director Rohit Chopra (the latter being the author of the blog post), which has been saved for posterity here in case it mysteriously disappears during routine maintenance.

The Bank of Canada issued its latest rates decision today:

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank’s extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate is being maintained. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant.

The global economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth in the United States has accelerated, led by consumption, while growth in some other regions is moderating after a strong third quarter. Inflation has increased further in many countries, reflecting strong demand for goods amid ongoing supply disruptions. The new Omicron COVID-19 variant has prompted a tightening of travel restrictions in many countries and a decline in oil prices, and has injected renewed uncertainty. Accommodative financial conditions are still supporting economic activity.

Canada’s economy grew by about 5½ percent in the third quarter, as expected. Together with a downward revision to the second quarter, this brings the level of GDP to about 1½ percent below its level in the last quarter of 2019, before the pandemic began. Third-quarter growth was led by a rebound in consumption, particularly services, as restrictions were further eased and higher vaccination rates improved confidence. Persistent supply bottlenecks continued to inhibit growth in other components of GDP, including non-commodity exports and business investment.

Recent economic indicators suggest the economy had considerable momentum into the fourth quarter. This includes broad-based job gains in recent months that have brought the employment rate essentially back to its pre-pandemic level. Job vacancies remain elevated and wage growth has also picked up. Housing activity had been moderating, but appears to be regaining strength, notably in resales. The devastating floods in British Columbia and uncertainties arising from the Omicron variant could weigh on growth by compounding supply chain disruptions and reducing demand for some services.

CPI inflation is elevated and the impact of global supply constraints is feeding through to a broader range of goods prices. The effects of these constraints on prices will likely take some time to work their way through, given existing supply backlogs. Gasoline prices, which had been a major factor pushing up CPI inflation, have recently declined. Meanwhile, core measures of inflation are little changed since September. The Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to remain elevated in the first half of 2022 and ease back towards 2 percent in the second half of the year. The Bank is closely watching inflation expectations and labour costs to ensure that the forces pushing up prices do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.

The Governing Council judges that in view of ongoing excess capacity, the economy continues to require considerable monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s October projection, this happens sometime in the middle quarters of 2022. We will provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation target.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 4.85%, equivalent to 6.30% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 3.50%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has remained steady at the 280bp reported November 24.

This is worth highlighting … How the Wealth Was Won: Factors Shares as Market Fundamentals by Daniel L. Greenwald, Martin Lettau, and Sydney C. Ludvigson, NBER Working Paper No. 25769:

Why do stocks rise and fall? From 1989 to 2017, $34 trillion of real equity wealth (2017:Q4 dollars) was created by the U.S. corporate sector. We estimate that 44% of this increase was attributable to a reallocation of rewards to shareholders in a decelerating economy, primarily at the expense of labor compensation. Economic growth accounted for just 25%, followed by a lower risk price (18%), and lower interest rates (14%). The period 1952 to 1988 experienced less than one third of the growth in market equity, but economic growth accounted for more than 100% of it.

One last trip to the trough for the Baby Boomers? Or is that real estate?