Category: Market Action

Fitch had better prepare for a crowd of sans culottes shouting ‘a la lanterne’:

Greece’s credit rating was cut three levels to Fitch Ratings’ lowest grade for any country in the world as the company followed rivals and said that a default is a “real possibility.”

The move to CCC from B+ “reflects the absence of a new, fully funded and credible” program by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, the ratings company said yesterday in a statement in London. It also reflects “heightened uncertainty surrounding the role of private creditors in any future funding, as well as Greece’s weakening macroeconomic outlook.”

BIS continues its drive to make finance a cooperative game with its release of a Report on asset securitisation incentives:

The Report recognises regulators can play a role in establishing a framework for securitisation that ensures that it is conducted in a prudent manner, continues to be an alternative funding source for institutions, and contributes to the availability of credit to support the real economy. They can do this by building a regulatory and supervisory framework which addresses the misaligned incentives and conflicts of interest and which supports enhanced disclosure and transparency for investors. The Report encourages policy makers, regulators and supervisors to strive for internationally and cross-sectorally consistent supervisory frameworks, and to develop and implement regulations in a timely manner. The Report further sets out three recommendations (some of which build on earlier work of Parent Committees). These recommendations specify that:

• Authorities should employ a broad suite of tools to address misaligned incentives, which may include measures to improve loan origination standards, and to align compensation arrangements with long-term performance and asset quality.
• Authorities should encourage markets to improve transparency to ensure that investors, other market participants, and supervisors have access to relevant and reliable information.
• Authorities should encourage greater document standardisation and less product complexity, which should assist in reducing information asymmetries and stimulating liquidity in secondary securitisation markets.

OSFI is requiring quarterly disclosures of new information:

Enhancements to the Basel II Framework strengthen disclosure requirements under Pillar 3 in several key areas, including: securitisation exposures in the trading book; sponsorship of off-balance sheet vehicles; resecuritisation exposures; and, pipeline and warehousing risks with regard to securitisation exposures. Revisions to the Basel II Market Risk Framework incorporate additional disclosure requirements under Pillar 3 including disclosures on the incremental risk capital charge, the comprehensive risk capital charge and the stressed value-at-risk (VaR) requirement
…
Further, while the Basel II text5 indicates that qualitative disclosures that provide a general summary of a bank’s risk management objectives and policies, reporting systems and definitions may be published on an annual basis, it is OSFI’s view that the qualitative disclosures enable investors and other users of financial statements to have a better understanding of the quantitative disclosures that are required in quarterly reports. As such, OSFI expects that the first quarter of fiscal 2012 disclosures should include full qualitative disclosures in Pillar 3 enhancements and revisions to complement the required quantitative disclosures.

These enhancements are described in the BCBS document Revisions to the Basel II market risk framework. It is noteworthy that the BCBS has entirely missed the whole point of the credit crisis: the aging of trading inventory. If a bank has a significant position in its trading book that it hasn’t turned over in three months, I want to know that. And if they’ve got stuff in their trading book that they haven’t turned over in a year … well then, that’s not really trading inventory, is it? That’s banking, not trading.

Tim Kiladze of the Globe noted that, in contrast to the European ETFs discussed on July 11, Canadian ETFs are less risky, and less profitable:

Because most Canadian ETFs are more vanilla, the fees earned are lower. Generally, for low cost products, ETF providers here will earn 5 to 7 basis points, while higher cost products bring in 20 to 30 basis points. Leveraged ETFs can earn more because they typically charge higher management fees that typically range from 1 to 1.25 per cent.

Those numbers differ drastically from Deutsche Bank’s report, which estimated profits around 60 basis points for traditional ETFs. Mr. Seif said that the big difference between North America and Europe is that the securities held in ETFs here don’t earn much money by the way of securities lending. The Deutsche Bank report’s authors estimated 26 basis points on securities lending.

Why such a big difference? In Europe, investment banks are the big providers of ETFs, with everyone from UBS to Deutsche Bank to Credit Suisse selling their own suite of products. Here in North America, the big ETF providers are largely independent fund management firms such as Claymore, Horizons BetaPro, Vanguard and State Street.

The NYSE / Deutsche Bourse deal is basically done, with a minimum of cry-babyism. Speaking of crybabies, the milkfare bums are whining about competition.

DBRS confirmed BNS:

Other acquisitions, albeit more modest, include an advisor to ultra-high net worth clients and their families and a few global wealth management divisions. BNS has also been expanding its insurance offering by introducing new products and building additional retail insurance centres. DBRS expects Scotiabank will continue to expand its wealth management businesses in order to maintain proportional growth among its other segments such that the risk profile of the Bank does not materially change in the medium term. Global Wealth Management accounted for 15% of pre-tax earnings (excluding the gain related to the write-up of the original investment in DundeeWealth Inc. and the Other segment) in H1 2011.
…
Scotiabank has a significant cost advantage relative to its Canadian banking peers. Although this differential has been narrowing over the last few years, it nevertheless is a key success factor and a contributor to earnings growth. Since 2000, except for one year, Scotiabank has had the lowest expense ratio of the largest five Canadian banks.

It was a quiet day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 1bp, FixedResets down 1bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 10bp. Volatility was low. Volume was slow.

This is cool: Capital Structure Arbitrage-Implied Index Trading:

In this paper, we develop long-short trading strategies derived from the work of Merton [1974], which provides theoretical relationships between equity, equity volatility, and credit. We then apply the strategies to index products structured primarily based on U.S. investment grade assets.

We find that an optimized Merton-based strategy results in significant trading profits when applied over the span of time for which data is available. Furthermore, we find that trading profits can be enhanced by incorporating information derived from short-term volatility. Given the unlimited number of index combinations spanning different asset classes, geographies and tranche levels, we recommend that further work be allocated to the promising area of capital-structure arbitrage implied index trading.

Click for Big

Figure 2 shows a graphical summary of the relationship among the CDX Investment Grade index, S&P 500, and the VIX. There are a few general qualitative observations from this graph. First of all, high levels of CDX IG are typically accompanied by high levels of volatility. This suggests that volatility may be a reasonable predictor for the credit spread. Another important observation is that the slope of CDX.IG as a function of SPX changes over time and over different market conditions. The time-varying relationship is expected, since credit spread is fundamentally a stationary process, while the equity index is obviously non-stationary. This time-varying relationship makes it difficult to directly use the slope as the hedge ratio in the credit-index index arbitrage.

Overview of Merton Model

In a seminal paper, Merton [1974] proposed a structural model that provides a theoretical relationship between a firm’s equity value and its credit risk. The key concept behind the Merton model is that default occurs when the firm’s asset value falls below its debt value. Hence, investment in a firm’s equity can be viewed as purchasing a call option on the firm’s assets, with the value of the debt as the strike price. The Merton model makes the same assumptions as in the Black-Scholes options pricing framework, such as the log-normal distribution of asset value.

Italian regulators are ratcheting up pressure on short-sellers:

Italy’s market regulator has recommended to stakeholders who have lent shares in Italian companies to retrieve them, Consob head said on Wednesday, confirming reports of a move aimed at curbing short-selling. “Yes, we’ve exercised moral suasion by asking all those who have lent shares to retrieve them,” Consob Chairman Giuseppe Vegas told journalists on the sideline of a conference.

He added the request was not binding.

More opinions on the Yellow / Trader / Apax deal:

Moody’s has trouble wrapping its head around the [Trader] company’s strength as it moves into the digital environment.

“While this is a plausible proposition that has been successfully executed in the U.K. and elsewhere using the Trader brand, there is some uncertainty that the same formula can be applied in Trader’s circumstances in Canada,” the rating agency noted.

“Trader will have to grow its per digital customer yield and increase market penetration, neither of which is a given.”

Moody’s ultimately slapped a B3 rating on the name.

Speaking of Moody’s they put the US on Review Negative:

Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S. under review for a credit rating downgrade as talks to raise the government’s $14.3 trillion debt limit stall, adding to concern that political gridlock will lead to a default.

The Aaa ratings of financial institutions directly linked to the U.S. government, including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Home Loan Banks, and the Federal Farm Credit Banks, were also put on review for cuts, Moody’s said in a statement today.

The U.S., rated Aaa since 1917, was put on review for the first time since 1995 on concern the debt limit will not be raised in time to prevent a missed payment of interest or principal on outstanding bonds and notes even though the risk remains low, Moody’s said. The rating would likely be reduced to the Aa range and there is no assurance that Moody’s would return its top rating even if a default is quickly cured.

DBRS has released its Split Share Funds Quarterly Report – Q2 2011:

Q2 2011 was the first quarter since Q2 2010 that the average downside protection for split shares rated by DBRS decreased. Notwithstanding the declines over the past three months, the average downside protection of DBRS-rated preferred shares was about 51% at the end of Q2 2011, a signifi cant increase over the 45% and 40% averages at the end of Q2 2010 and Q2 2009, respectively. As a result of the additional buffer of downside protection built up over time, it is expected that the negative performance during Q2 2011 will generally not result in negative rating actions for preferred shares or securities rated by DBRS.

It was a mixed day in the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 25bp, FixedResets up 16bp and DeemedRetractibles down 8bp. Not much volatility. Volume was average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.45%, equivalent to 7.08% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield about 5.2% (!) so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 190bp, a significant widening from the 175bp reported on July 6, as preferreds did not participate in the extraordinary 15bp week’s decline in long corporate yields.

Trader Corporation is issuing USD junk bonds:

One deal has launched in the high-yield market this morning as issuance remains slow. Trader Corporation, a Canadian online automotive marketplace, announced a US$275m seven-year non-call three senior secured offering via RBC sole books. The roadshow begins tomorrow with pricing expected late next week. Proceeds will fund the acquisition of Trader Corp by Apax Partners.

So what’s the better bet for junk? Yellow Media, Trader Corp, or Ireland?:

A late-day rally in U.S. stocks faded after Ireland’s debt rating was cut to junk at Moody’s Investors Service, overshadowing signs the Federal Reserve had not ruled out further stimulus efforts.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.1 percent to 1,318.06 at 3:33 p.m. in New York after climbing as much as 0.6 percent. The benchmark gauge tumbled 2.5 percent in the previous two days, its worst back-to-back slump since March. Moody’s cut Ireland’s government bond rating one notch to Ba1 from Baa3, spurring concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening.

DBRS confirmed CM:

CIBC’s current strategy should contribute to earnings stability and improved capital levels, thereby better positioning the Bank for future downturns. As capital is freed up from the reduction in the run-off book, DBRS would like to see resources deployed in less volatile businesses that are a natural extension of existing capabilities. The latest financial crisis provided CIBC with the opportunity to purchase CITI Cards Canada Inc.’s Canadian MasterCard portfolio which DBRS believes is consistent with CIBC’s desire to accelerate growth in its core banking business by strengthening its number one position in credit cards and being a dual credit card issuer in Canada.

DBRS assigned some Allied Irish notes as Default:

In respect of the Notes, the High Court has declared that the subordinated liabilities order (SLO) issued by the High Court on 14 April 2011 under the Credit Institutions (Stabilisation) Act 2010 is effective as of 22 April 2011. The SLO amends the terms of the subordinated debt, including interest due, so that it is payable only at the option of AIB; and the maturity date of the Notes has been extended to June 2035. Additionally, in accordance with the amendments, AIB announced that no payment of interest that would have been due to holders of the Notes on 25 June 2011 will be made by AIB.

The downgrade reflects the halting of interest payments on the Notes by AIB and DBRS’s expectation that the future interest payments of these outstanding subordinated instruments will be halted, as allowed by the High Court. Further, the downgrade considers the aforementioned extension of the final maturity date. Given that bondholders are unlikely to receive interest as agreed upon and that the expected maturity has been extended, DBRS views these actions as disadvantageous to bondholders, which is considered a default under DBRS policy.

Thre was similar action on Irish Life & Permanent:

DBRS Inc. (DBRS) today has downgraded the Dated Subordinated Debt rating of Irish Life & Permanent plc (IL&P or the Group) to “D” from “C”. Today’s downgrade follows the execution of the Group’s note tender offer.

The default status for the purchased and now-extinguished notes reflects DBRS’s view that bondholders were offered limited options and that a distressed exchange has now occurred, which is considered a default under DBRS policy, as discussed in DBRS’s press release dated 8 June 2011.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 12bp, FixedResets up 1bp and DeemedRetractibles down 8bp. Volatility was good. Volume remained very low.

Is your country falling apart? Blame the short sellers!

Italy’s financial-market regulator moved to curb short selling after the country’s benchmark stock index fell the most in almost five months and bonds tumbled on investor concern Italy would be the next victim of the region’s debt crisis.

The regulator known as Consob ordered last night that short sellers must reveal their positions when they reach 0.2 percent or more of a company’s capital and then make additional filings for each additional 0.1 percent. The measure takes effect today and lasts until Sept. 9.

Another good technique is to bury the critics in paperwork:

Credit-ratings companies may be forced to disclose the internal analyses they use when they decide to cut a European Union government’s rating, the region’s financial services commissioner said.

Nations may win the right to check the data used by the companies in advance of downgrades of their sovereign ratings, Michel Barnier said in the text of a speech in Paris speech today. The measures may be included in legislation to rein in the ratings firms, he said.

But life is tough when you’re squaring the circle:

European finance chiefs clashed over how to dig Greece out of its financial hole just as markets battered the bonds of Spain and Italy, opening a new front in the debt crisis.

Finance ministers weighed how to get private bondholders to maintain their exposure to Greek debt in a way that doesn’t prompt credit-rating companies to declare a formal default.

Forcing bondholders to chip in would be “fatal,” Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter told reporters before a crisis meeting in Brussels today.

Late news is that maybe the taxpayers will foot the bill:

European finance ministers revived the prospect of bond buybacks to ease Greece’s plight and declined to rule out a temporary default, struggling to contain the debt crisis as investors pounded Italy, the continent’s third-largest economy.

Prodded by investors and the European Central Bank, the euro’s guardians said a bailout fund set up last year may be used to buy bonds in the secondary market or enable Greece to retire its debt at a discount. They offered another cut in rates on its emergency loans.

For all their recent problems, US brokerages have always been a far better and far more profitable place to work than those in Canada. Here’s why:

A headhunter put Muller in touch with Morgan Stanley, which was then looking for a quant strategist to drum up business. Muller had bigger aspirations and cut a deal with Derek Bandeen, a prop-trading executive. Muller had two years to get a profitable trading system running. If he failed, he would perform the strategist’s job. PDT was born.

The CSA has released a staff notice titled MARKETING PRACTICES OF PORTFOLIO MANAGERS:

We identified a number of deficiencies in the preparation, review and use of marketing materials by the PMs we reviewed.
Generally, the deficiencies were grouped into one of the following areas:
1. Preparation and use of hypothetical performance data
2. Exaggerated and unsubstantiated claims
3. Policies, procedures and internal controls
4. Use of benchmarks
5. Performance composites
6. Holding out and use of names
7. Other performance return issues
8. Disclosure related issues

Interesting piece on ETFs:

Using Deutsche Bank’s numbers, and then comparing them to a recent McKinsey & Co. analysis of Europe’s fund management industry, the Financial Times found that ETF’s likely account for 13 per cent of the Europe’s €9-billion in fund profits. More importantly, the profit margins on ETFs are sky high — 55.5 basis points of assets under management for ETFs versus 12.5 basis points for traditional funds.

And within ETFs, there’s a difference in profit margins between synthetic ETFs and physically replicated ETFs. The first type posts profit margins of 69 per cent, while the latter has profit margins of 64 per cent.
…
Past studies have found that over 50 per cent of assets under management in European ETFs are now placed in synthetic ETFs.

Makes sense. All the MER on funds goes to the salesman.

It was a mixed day on the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 13bp, FixedResets ahead 1bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 9bp. Volatility was good. Volume was extremely light.

IOSCO would like to protect incompetent traders from evil High Frequency players, but has not yet found a plausible excuse:

In a new consultation paper, the International Organization of Securities Commissions lays out what it knows about high frequency traders, and the upshot is not much — but the regulatory body is voicing some significant concerns. Chief among them is that the technological advantage of high-frequency traders gives them an unfair edge, causing other investors to drop out of markets, and whether their speed and sophistication make it too hard for regulators to ensure they aren’t gaming markets.

The full report notes that the comment period closes August 12, 2011.

In a similar vein, Europe is hoping to punish rating agencies for being independent:

The head of the European Commission says the practices of the three top credit rating agencies will come under scrutiny and that Europe could benefit from having its own agency.

Rating agencies have had a central role in warning about Europe’s debt crisis, though many politicians have criticized them for fanning fears.

Jose Manuel Barroso said the Commission “will come up with some proposals in the autumn” on regulating the agencies, but did not give any detail.

He said the agencies sometimes anticipate risks but can also “overrate” them.

There was a nice jobs number in the US … nice for bonds:

American employers added jobs at the slowest pace in nine months in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 9.2 percent, sending global stocks tumbling on concern the world’s biggest economy is faltering.

Employers increased payrolls by 18,000 workers, less than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, which called for growth of 105,000. The increase followed a 25,000 gain that was less than half the initial estimate. Hiring by companies was the weakest since May 2010.

What a difference a day makes!

[Yesterday]

Treasuries ended a two-day rally as a private report said U.S. companies added more jobs than forecast and economists said government data tomorrow will show nonfarm payrolls gained, fueling bets economic growth is accelerating.

Ten-year yields rose from a one-week low as stocks climbed after the European Central Bank signaled it will ease Portugal’s access to emergency funds. ADP Employer Services said U.S. firms’ payrolls increased by 157,000 jobs in June, and unemployment claims fell for the first time in three weeks. The U.S. said it will sell $66 billion in notes and bonds next week.

DBRS confirmed GWO:

Like its major peers, the Company is anchored by its Canadian operations which benefit from an oligopolistic industry structure which limits the worst of price competition. Increasing scale in the U.S. retirement saving administration and focused niches in Europe, primarily in the United Kingdom, represent stable sources of earnings contributions. The Company avoided the adverse reserve development which was experienced by a number of competitors on account of Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits (GMWB) segregated funds inasmuch as GWO did not begin to offer the product until it had arrived at an efficient and effective hedging strategy which complemented its conservative product design.
…
Fixed charge coverage ratios at GWO nevertheless remain healthier than those of its peers, reflecting stronger profitability, albeit lower than historical. GWO also continues to employ a higher proportion of innovative/hybrid capital instruments which keep its adjusted debt ratio (giving equity treatment to certain capital instruments) relatively low. The Company is actively retiring capital instruments issued at its operating companies in order to have a higher proportion of capital issuance at the holding company level which will serve to reduce its double leverage ratio. In short, DBRS considers the Company’s financial leverage and capital position to be consistent with the current rating category as long as it continues to operate conservatively. However, financial flexibility is limited at this rating category.

As an integral component of the Power Financial group of companies, GWO benefits from its parent’s financial support and its strong governance and risk management controls and procedures, which reinforce the conservative bottom-line focus of the Company.

DBRS also confirmed BMO:

BMO’s capital ratios were solid and the quality of capital was strong relative to its Canadian bank peers at the end of Q2 2011. However, the acquisition of M&I resulted in a reduction in the pro forma Basel II tangible common equity (TCE) and Tier 1 ratios to 9.4% and 11.9% (based on April 30, 2011), respectively, which are at the low end of BMO’s Canadian bank peer group, albeit still well in excess of regulatory requirements. On a Basel III basis (also based on April 30, 2011), the pro forma TCE and Tier 1 ratios were 6.9% and 9.2%, respectively.

BMO’s long-term Deposits & Senior Debt rating at AA is composed of an intrinsic assessment of AA (low) and a support assessment of SA2 (reflecting the expectation of systemic and timely external support by the government of Canada). The SA2 status results in a one-notch benefit to the senior debt and deposits and subordinated debt ratings.

What happened to Yellow this week? TD Newcrest doesn’t like the common any more, which is important to some:

TD Newcrest analyst Scott Cuthbertson threw in the towel on Yellow Media Inc. (YLO-T2.40-0.29-10.78%), slashing his price target by half to $2 and downgrading it to “sell” after having recommended investors hold it since the beginning of March 2010, when the stock traded around $6.

It was an uneven day in the Canadian Preferred Share Market, with PerpetualDiscounts flat (exactly!), FixedResets up 1bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 16bp. Volatility was muted. Volume was low.

Europeans want a rating agency that follows political instructions:

Europe’s leaders are accusing the world’s largest credit-rating agencies of bias in assessing the debt of troubled countries, renewing calls for the creation of a European rating agency.

The complaints were sparked after Moody’s downgraded Portugal by four notches Tuesday to “junk” status, and Standard & Poor’s warned Monday it would consider it a “selective default” if banks and insurers roll over about $42-billion of Greek debt – a move that could derail efforts to restructure Greece’s debt.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Wednesday he was surprised by the decision to downgrade Portugal, saying he “can’t decipher” the basis for the evaluation.

“We need to break the oligopoly of rating agencies,” he told reporters in Berlin.

Meanwhile Satyajit Das has a nice piece in the Globe, unsuccessfully attempting to make the numbers add up:

Under the sketchy proposal, for every €100 of maturing bonds, the banks will subscribe to new 30-year securities, but only equal to €70 (70 per cent). The banks will keep €50 and invest the other €20 in 30-year high-quality zero-coupon bonds (via a special purpose vehicle) to secure repayment of the new bonds. The new 30-year Greek debt will carry an interest rate of 5.5 per cent per annum with a bonus element linked to Greek growth of up to an additional 2.5 per cent.

Of the €340-billion in outstanding Greek bonds, banks hold 27 per cent, institutional and retail investors hold 43 per cent and the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank hold 30 per cent. It is not clear whether non-bank investors are willing to participate in the arrangements. The ECB has previously resisted any debt restructuring, including maturity extension.

The French plan assumes holders of bonds would agree to roll over 50 per cent of their holdings to provide Greece net funding of €30-billion ($41-billion). But under the French banking federation’s own figures, this would be impossible unless all the €60.5-billion (excluding central bank holdings) maturing by mid-2014 is rolled over. This is inconsistent with the proposal’s assumption of investor acceptance of 80 per cent.
…
Greece must find €50 for every €100 debt exchanged under the proposal. Given it has no access to commercial funding, this would have to come from the EU, IMF, EFSF or ECB.

Greece’s cost would be between 7.7 per cent and 11.20 per cent per annum, as it only receives €50 of the €70 face value of the new bonds. Assuming the remaining funding is at 6 per cent, then Greece’s blended rate for every €100 of finance would be 6.85-8.60 per cent per annum, compared to the 7-8 per cent per annum considered sustainable by markets.

Most importantly, the overall level of debt, considered unsustainable, of Greece would remain unchanged.

Speaking of numbers that don’t add up, there’s more Sino-Forest related news:

John Paulson lost 11 percent in his biggest fund in June, according to an investor, as the firm sold off Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE) after a short-seller’s allegations.

The drop left Paulson’s Advantage Plus Fund, which uses strategies designed to profit from corporate events such as takeovers and bankruptcies, down 18 percent this year, said the client, who asked not to be named because the information is private. The fund’s gold-denominated share class declined 11 percent in June and 12 percent in 2011.

The crows are feasting on Nortel’s unexpectedly fat corpse:

Two and half years on, the breakup of Nortel Networks Corp. is all but complete save for one last but significant obstacle — how to allocate an unexpectedly large pile of cash of more than US$10-billion.

That job falls on the shoulders of Ontario Chief Justice Warren Winkler, who Wednesday was appointed mediator for all outstanding claims, which could swell in light of the colossal sum raised through last week’s US$4.5-billion patent sale to a consortium of technology giants.
…
Unsecured holders of Nortel’s suddenly hot bonds will also expect to be paid out at 100¢ on the dollar. Bonds maturing in 2013 and 2016 carry coupons of more 10% and are trading well above par. Each class of bond is up more than 650% since hitting bottom in February 2009.

JPMorgan was naughty:

Typically, when investors purchase municipal securities, the municipalities temporarily invest the proceeds of the sales in municipal reinvestment products until the money is used for the intended purposes. Under relevant Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regulations, the proceeds of tax-exempt municipal securities generally must be invested at fair market value. The most common way of establishing fair market value is through a competitive bidding process in which bidding agents search for the appropriate investment vehicle for a municipality.

The SEC alleges that from 1997 through 2005, JPMS’s fraudulent practices, misrepresentations and omissions undermined the competitive bidding process, affected the prices that municipalities paid for reinvestment products, and deprived certain municipalities of a conclusive presumption that the reinvestment instruments had been purchased at fair market value. JPMS’s fraudulent conduct also jeopardized the tax-exempt status of billions of dollars in municipal securities because the supposed competitive bidding process that establishes the fair market value of the investment was corrupted. The employees involved in the alleged misconduct are no longer with the company.

According to the SEC’s complaint filed in U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey, JPMS, acting as the agent for its affiliated commercial bank, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., at times won bids because it obtained information from the bidding agents about competing bids, a practice known as “last looks.” In other instances, it won bids set up in advance for JPMS to win (“set-ups”) because the bidding agent deliberately obtained non-winning bids from other providers, and it facilitated bids rigged for others to win by deliberately submitting non-winning bids.

Dan Hallett has another nice piece in the Globe, How rising rates may affect bond portfolios.

RBC may be going into the ETF business:

Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T54.57-0.24-0.44%), which owns Canada’s largest mutual fund player, is the second domestic bank to jump into the fast-growing exchange traded fund (ETF) business.

Its fund arm, RBC Global Asset Management, has filed a preliminary prospectus to list eight, target-date maturity corporate bond ETFs on the Toronto Stock Exchange. These ETFs wind up in a specified year ranging from 2013 to 2020, and the cash is distributed to unitholders.

Jonathan Chevreau comments:

The entry of Canada’s largest bank, RBC, into exchange-traded funds is bound to legitimize the fast-growing ETF industry, just as the banks made mutual funds a household name in the late 1980s.

Yes, sir, that’s what ETFs need! Legitimacy!

Canada nestled deeper into Israel’s pocket:

The committee recommends that police forces across Canada be better trained to deal with anti-Semitism; that universities host conferences to counter events such as “Israeli Apartheid Week”; and that there should be a clear definition of what anti-Semitism entails.
…
The CPCCA countered that it did not want to limit reasonable criticism of Israel. But it also explained that “anti-Semitism is being manifested in a manner which has never been dealt with before. … This problem is especially prevalent on campuses where Jewish students are ridiculed and intimidated for any deemed support for the ‘Nazi’ and ‘apartheid’ State of Israel, which is claimed to have no right to exist.”

Don’t engage in vigorous debate! Not in Canada! The people with whom you vehemently disagree might be fwightened! Some of us believe that criticism of Israel, no matter how vociferous and ignorant, is not anti-Semitism – but perhaps the CPCCA considers that at anti-Semitic viewpoint. At least we can all be joyful that the CPCCA does not want to limit what it deems to be reasonable criticism of Israel. Golly, thanks guys!

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 15bp, FixedResets winning 10bp, and DeemedRetractibles up 1bp. Volatility was good. Volume was fair.

Portugal’s downgrade is contagious:

Portugal’s downgrade to junk may stifle corporate bond sales in Europe, killing off a mini- revival in issuance spurred by investor optimism about Greece’s efforts to avoid default.

“The primary window has almost slammed shut just as spectacularly as it had flung open,” said Suki Mann, senior credit strategist at Societe Generale SA in London.

Notes sold by Enel SpA (ENEL), Italy’s largest power operator, and Fiat SpA (F) fell in their first day of trading today, while two issuers pulled deals. Enel and Fiat led 5.4 billion euros ($7.7 billion) of company bond sales in Europe this week, the biggest round of issuance by non-financial borrowers since May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Ireland may be next!

Ireland’s credit rating may be cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service after Portugal yesterday lost its investment grade rating, according to analysts.

Moody, which slashed Portugal to Ba2 from Baa1, in April lowered Ireland’s credit rating to the lowest investment grade Baa3 and left country’s outlook on negative.

The ratings company cut Portugal’s rating in part because the nation may not be able to return to debt markets in the second half of 2013. Ireland has been locked out of markets since September, and the yield on 10-year Irish bonds climbed to 12.44 percent today, a euro-area record for the country that agreed to a rescue package with the European Union and International Monetary Fund last November.

Synthetic ETFs are really getting a working-over:

U.K. fraud prosecutors are reviewing how exchange-traded funds are marketed and whether they have the proper tools to prosecute any wrongdoing in the industry, a person directly involved with the probe said.

The Serious Fraud Office, which prosecutes white collar crime, hired a consultant to interview bankers and lawyers to determine whether there is a risk that sales of the products may involve criminal conduct in the future. The Financial Services Authority and the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee have warned of a lack of transparency in the ETF market.
…
“From the investor’s point of view, I think there are question marks over whether synthetic ETFs really are appropriate for all types of the retail marketplace,” FSA Chief Executive Officer Hector Sants said June 24.

Concerns about synthetic ETFs were last discussed on PrefBlog when the BoE June 2011 Financial Stability Report focussed on them.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, as PerpetualDiscounts gained 20bp, FixedResets were up 4bp and DeemedRetractibles lost 8bp. Volatility was quite good. Volume was average; Nesbitt scored a shut-out on the highlights table.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.44%, equivalent to 7.07% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 5.35% so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 175bp, a narrowing from the 185bp reported on June 29 due to a decline of PerpetualDiscount yields.

FixedResets and new issuers got some ink in the Globe:

BCE Inc. (BCE-T38.220.230.61%), which has long history with these shares, is one of the latest firms to tap into this demand, closing a $345-million offering on Tuesday. These shares pay a fixed yield of 4.15 per cent for the first five years, and then investors have the choice to either take a rate equal to the Government of Canada 5-year yield plus 1.88 per cent, or a floating three-month T-bill rate plus 1.88 per cent.

Yet BCE isn’t alone. Intact Financial also just sold $225-million of these securities, as did Canaccord Financial. These two issues were a bit more surprising because both deals were the first time these firms offered this type of security.

Still, it makes a lot of sense. Much like Intact and Canaccord, firms such as GMP Capital and Bell Alliant also recently sold their first issue of rate reset preferred shares. If sales continue to be strong, don’t be surprised if more first-time issuers jump on the bandwagon.

Moody’s says Portugal is junk after a four-notch downgrade:

Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday cut Portugal’s credit rating by four levels to Ba2, two notches into junk territory, saying there is great risk the country will need a second round of official financing before it can return to capital markets.

It was a mixed day on the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 4bp, FixedResets winning 15bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 5bp. Volatility was muted. Volume was average and dominated by FixedResets – perhaps due to portfolio reshuffling with the closing of the BCE.PR.K new issue.

Nortel’s carcass is worth big bucks:

Apple Inc. (AAPL) joined with rivals Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Research in Motion Ltd. (RIM) to outbid Google Inc. (GOOG) for a patent portfolio from Nortel Networks Corp. and gain rights to technologies for mobile phones and tablet computers.

The group, which also includes Sony Corp. (6758), Ericsson AB and EMC Corp., agreed to pay $4.5 billion in cash for the assets, Ontario-based Nortel said in a statement. The companies aim to complete the sale this quarter pending approval from U.S. and Canadian courts, it said.

The purchase will give Apple, RIM and their bidding partners control over more than 6,000 patents and applications that cover wireless and Internet technologies. The winning offer came after several rounds of bidding and was five times the $900 million Google had offered before the auction for Nortel’s remaining intellectual property.
…
Nortel, which filed for bankruptcy in 2009, fetched more for the patents than the $3 billion it had previously raised by selling almost all its businesses. RIM, maker of the BlackBerry smartphone, will pay about $770 million for its share of the patents, the Waterloo, Ontario-based company said in a statement. Ericsson will pay $340 million, the Stockholm-based networking-equipment maker said. Steve Dowling, a spokesman for Apple, declined to comment beyond the Nortel statement.

The Greek problem has been papered over – at least for now:

The euro area approved its share of a 12 billion-euro ($17.4 billion) aid payment for Greece and pledged to complete work in the coming weeks on a second rescue package for the cash-strapped nation to prevent a default and contagion.

Finance ministers agreed to disburse 8.7 billion euros of loans under last year’s 110 billion-euro bailout, rewarding Greek Premier George Papandreou for pushing an extra austerity plan through parliament. The International Monetary Fund is due to provide the rest of the July aid installment, the fifth under the 2010 package.

The spotlight now turns to a second bailout to which banks and insurers plan to contribute following German demands for taxpayer relief. Euro-area governments and investors will provide 70 percent of new aid that may total as much as 85 billion euros, with the IMF offering the rest, Thomas Wieser, an Austrian Finance Ministry official, said on June 30.

S&P will likely label a Greek term extension as a selective default:

In summary, the growing risk that the Hellenic Republic might engage in a distressed debt restructuring was one of the reasons we lowered its rating on June 13 (see, “Long-term Sovereign Rating On Greece Cut To ‘CCC’; Outlook
Negative”). While we would likely view the FBF proposal, if it proceeds in its current form, as an effective default, we recognize that it is just one of a number of proposals attempting to address the Greek government’s 2011-2014 financing needs and the sustainability of its future debt burden. We
understand that the FBF proposal may change, and it is possible that it could take a form that results in a different rating outcome. Regardless of whether the current FBF proposal is implemented, however, we continue to believe the Hellenic Republic’s uncertain ability to implement the revised EU/IMF program
is a key risk weighing on its credit standing.

This has European shorts in a knot:

That may leave the European Central Bank unable to accept Greek government debt as collateral, impairing the lifeline it has provided the country’s banks.

“It sends all the officials and banks back to drawing board to think something new,” said Christoph Rieger, head of fixed-income strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The ECB is saying it won’t accept debt in a default. Someone needs to give in — either Germany or the ratings agencies or the ECB. One of three will have to compromise.”

Despite all this, Greek notes had a good day:

Greek two-year note yield dropped below 26 percent for the first time since June 14.
…
Greek two-year yields slid 73 points to 26.11 percent, at one point dipping to 25.76 percent. The cost of insuring Greek debt against default rose four basis points to 1,865, signaling 80 percent odds the country will miss a bond payment in five years. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 governments climbed four basis points to 222. The euro slipped 0.1 percent against the dollar and the yen.

There’s a new chapter in the Sino-Forest saga:

Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE), the Chinese tree- plantation operator accused by a short seller of overstating timber holdings, climbed in Toronto after Wellington Management Co. said it owned 11.5 percent of the company.

Sino-Forest rose as much as 56 percent after the Boston- based investment firm said in a regulatory filing it held 28.3 million shares as of June 30. Wellington, which manages $663 billion, held 79,700 Sino-Forest shares, or 0.03 percent, as of Dec. 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

I just finished reading The Taste of Conquest by Michael Krondl. Excellent, and a worthy companion to William Bernstein’s A Splendid Exchange.

After our beloved mayor turned down a chance to say hello to umpteen thousand tourists with deep pockets, another councillor suggested cutting off funds for the city’s #2 tourist event – even if it means #1 will become collateral damage. Meanwhile, crappy pseudo-festivals organized by the well-connected get megabucks. Just what exactly do we need to do in this city to get a competent, pro-business administration?

The month – and the quarter – started off on an upbeat for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 4bp, FixedResets up 11bp and DeemedRetractibeswinning 21bp. Decent volatility, volume was average. RBC had a nice day.

Looks like some people think the LSE’s not a bad partner:

The biggest rally in three months for Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NDAQ) may be the clearest sign yet that investors expect the New York-based exchange operator to buy London Stock Exchange Group Plc. (LSE)

Nasdaq OMX gained 4.7 percent to $25.14 yesterday, climbing the most since April 1, after LSE dropped its offer for TMX Group Inc. (X), saying too few shareholders supported the C$3.32 billion ($3.4 billion) merger. The gain in Nasdaq OMX was the largest since the day it announced a plan to buy NYSE Euronext with IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE), and signals speculation the company will expand with LSE, according to Capstone Holdings Group LLC and Aite Group LLC.

Julie Dickson gave a speech to to the Canadian Institute of Actuaries Annual Meeting 2011; there were two snippets of interest:

Regulators are increasingly considering the adequacy of group capital. This brings into question the risks entailed by non-regulated entities, concentration risk, fungibility of capital, liquidity risk, the impact of intra-group support measures, diversification of risk, etc. The list is lengthy. Again, the actuarial profession has the tools and expertise to consider these issues and to help provide solutions.

.. which may reflect a desire to regulate insurance companies at the holding company level. Or it may not.

The other snippet is:

One of the most troubling issues we face as a regulator is the manner of response from industry, as well as your profession, to regulatory requirements. Frequently, the response to our requirements appears to be driven only by the need to comply, rather than by using the exercise as a means of identifying and reporting on important aspects of the way in which organizations manage risks.

This response is troubling because it implies a mechanical response, which may be conducted as cost effectively as possible, but that is not connected to any real business or risk management practices employed by the organization.

Consider Enterprise Risk Management as an example. The need for sound ERM practices has never been more pressing and yet we find that our requests for demonstrations of sound risk management via Dynamic Capital Adequacy testing (DCAT), stress testing, governance practices, etc. are frequently completed as if they were just regulatory compliance exercises rather than important demonstrations of real life ERM.

In our view, this type of response is not in anyone’s best interests.

“We’re from the government and we’re here to help you!”

Preet Bannerjee writes an interesting piece in the Globe titled How is your fund manager performing?. He references a newletter from Research Affiliates:

The selection of active managers, whose philosophy and process are geared to produce market-beating results, is an exhaustive and time-consuming activity. Certainly, some can take a shortcut, relying on historical track records (such as the typical trailing five years of returns) to gauge skill but, as mutual fund advertisements proclaim, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” Indeed, the goal of manager research is to determine if the manager and its strategy will be successful in the dark and unknowable future. And that requires separating the wheat from the chaff or, in this case, manager skill from pure luck. Unfortunately, this is easier said than done. Statistically speaking, it requires a track record of approximately 35 years to determine whether the average active manager has demonstrated skill.[footnote]

Footnote: Using a very optimistic 2% excess return at the typical 6% tracking error level, for an information ratio of 0.33. An information ratio of 0.50 would take 16 years to confirm statistical significance, while a 0.25 ratio would take 62 years!

Another paper referenced was by Fama & French, Luck Versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Returns:

The aggregate portfolio of U.S. equity mutual funds is close to the market portfolio, but the high costs of active management show up intact as lower returns to investors. Bootstrap simulations suggest that few funds produce benchmark adjusted expected returns sufficient to cover their costs. If we add back the costs in expense ratios, there is evidence of inferior and superior performance (non-zero true alpha) in the extreme tails of the cross section of mutual fund alpha estimates.

What happened to Yellow this week?

The Canadian preferred share market closed the half on a strong note, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 19bp, FixedResets up 16bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 14bp. Volatility was reasonable, with BAM.PR.O continuing its slide (with a wide spread), but ELF.PR.F and ELF.PR.G reversing theirs. Volume was average-ish.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.48%, equivalent to 7.12% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield about 5.4% (well … a little under) so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the Seniority Spread) is now about 170bp, a significant narrowing from the 185bp reported June 29.