Issue Comments

EIT.PR.A Achieves Premium On Good Volume

Canoe EIT Income Fund has announced:

that it has closed the previously announced offering of 4.80% Cumulative Redeemable Series 1 Preferred Units (the “Series 1 Preferred Units”). The Series 1 Preferred Units were offered to the public through a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotiabank and RBC Capital Markets which also included BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., TD Securities Inc., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. and Manulife Securities Incorporated.

The Fund issued 4,900,000 Series 1 Preferred Units at a price of $25.00 per Series 1 Preferred Unit for gross proceeds of $122,500,000. The Fund has also granted the underwriters an option, exercisable at the offering price for a period of 30 days from today’s date, to purchase up to an additional 735,000 Series 1 Preferred Units to cover over-allotments, if any. Holders of the Series 1 Preferred Units will be entitled to fixed cumulative preferential cash distributions of $1.20 per Series 1 Preferred Unit per annum, as and when declared, which will accrue from the date of issue and will be payable quarterly on the 15th day of March, June, September and December in each year with the initial distribution, if declared, payable on June 15, 2017. The Series 1 Preferred Units are listed for trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol EIT.PR.A.

The proceeds from the Offering will be invested by the Fund in accordance with its investment objectives and strategies. The Offering is expected to ensure the sustainability of the Fund by increasing the earning capacity of the units. The Series 1 Preferred Units are rated Pfd – 2 (high) by Dominion Bond Rating Service Limited.

The Fund’s regular monthly distribution of $0.10 per unit for unitholders of EIT.UN units remains unchanged. The Fund has maintained the $0.10 per unit monthly distribution since August 2009, through varying market conditions.

The Fund’s annual voluntary redemption feature for unitholders of EIT.UN units remains unchanged. Once a date has been set for the 2017 annual redemption, the Fund will issue a news release with the details.

EIT.PR.A is a 4.80% Seven Year Retractible that was announced 2017-3-8 after marketting began 2017-2-22. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the Split Share subindex.

Note that according to the prospectus, to which I am not permitted to link because Canadian Securities Administrators take the view that you are all stupid, filthy, ignorant investor scum and do not deserve the slightest consideration whatsoever. You will have to go to SEDAR and look for “Canoe EIT Income Fund Mar 8 2017 14:21:01 ET Final short form prospectus – English PDF 266 K”.

Distributions in any given period may consist of net income, net capital gains and/or returns of capital.

The issue traded 213,320 shares today in a range of 24.90-25 before closing at 25.25-30, 5×10. Vital statistics are:

EIT.PR.A SplitShare YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %

EIT.PR.A is rated Pfd-2(high) by DBRS:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today finalized its provisional rating of Pfd-2 (high) on the Cumulative Redeemable Series 1 Preferred Units (the Series 1 Preferred Units) issued by Canoe EIT Income Fund (the Fund).

The Fund is a closed-end investment trust focused on a broad range of income-producing investments in various industries and geographic regions. The Fund can issue an unlimited number of capital units (the Units) and can also issue in-series Preferred Units up to a maximum aggregate amount equal to 25% of the Fund’s total assets after giving effect to the proposed offering of the Preferred Units. The Series 1 Preferred Units were issued at a price of $25.00 per Series 1 Preferred Unit. The Series 1 Preferred Units are retractable for cash at the option of the holder on or after March 15, 2024.

The Fund has a credit facility (the Credit Facility) with a Tier 1 Canadian bank, but is restricted by its Declaration of Trust from borrowing in excess of 20% of the Fund’s total assets at the time of borrowing, after giving effect to the borrowing. The Credit Facility is secured by all of the Fund’s present and after-acquired personal property, undertaking and assets as well as all proceeds thereof. Distributions on the Series 1 Preferred Units are restricted if a default or event of default occurs under the Credit Facility or if the outstanding amount borrowed exceeds the available credit at any time.

Net proceeds from the offering of the Series 1 Preferred Units, after deducting the fees and expenses incurred as a result of the offering, are expected to be invested by the Fund to grow its portfolio in accordance with its investment objectives and investment strategies.

The Series 1 Preferred Unit holders will be entitled to receive quarterly cumulative preferential cash distributions of $0.30 (or $1.20 annually), representing a 4.80% per annum return on the issue price of $25.00. The holders of the Units currently receive targeted monthly cash distributions amounting to $1.20 per annum. In addition, up to 10% of the aggregate outstanding Units may be redeemed at the option of the Unit holders each calendar year on a date determined by the Fund.

The risks relating to the Unit distributions and redemptions are partially mitigated by restrictions on distributions, purchases and redemptions in the Fund’s Declaration of Trust as the Fund cannot pay or declare payable any distribution amount to the Unitholders (other than amounts that are paid solely through the issuance of additional Units, which would not affect the downside protection, or annual redemption amounts at the option of the holders of Units as described above), purchase for cancellation or otherwise redeem the Units, unless and until the distribution entitlements of the Series 1 Preferred Units have been paid in full or moneys are set aside for such payment.

The Fund’s portfolio initially provides downside protection of approximately 84% to holders of the Series 1 Preferred Unit and an asset coverage of approximately 10.0 times (x). The Series 1 Preferred Unit distributions are expected to be mainly funded through income received from the income-generating securities in the Portfolio. The Fund may also engage in writing covered call options to supplement the income. The Series 1 Preferred Units dividend coverage is expected to be approximately 1.7x.

The Pfd-2 (high) rating assigned by DBRS is based on the level of downside protection available to holders of the Series 1 Preferred Units, the distribution coverage ratio and the diversification of the Fund’s portfolio. In addition, DBRS has taken into account the potential grind on the portfolio arising from (1) distributions to the Units and redemption rights, (2) potential foreign-exchange risk because some investments in foreign currencies are not hedged and (3) the fact that lenders under the Credit Facility have priority over the Fund’s assets up to the amount of credit outstanding. Considering the Credit Facility amount compared with the current total assets, DBRS does not view the latter risk to be significant.

Update, 2017-3-22: Canoe Financial has announced:

Canoe EIT Income Fund (the “Fund”) (TSX – EIT.UN, EIT.PR.A) announced today that the syndicate of underwriters for the offering (the “Offering”) of 4.80% Cumulative Redeemable Series 1 Preferred Units (the “Series 1 Preferred Units”) of the Fund has fully exercised its over-allotment option. As a result of the exercise of the over-allotment option, the Fund raised additional gross proceeds of $18,375,000 from the sale of 735,000 Series 1 Preferred Units. Inclusive of the over-allotment option, the Fund raised gross proceeds of $140,875,000 from the sale of 5,635,000 Series 1 Preferred Units. The Series 1 Preferred Units are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol EIT.PR.A.

Issue Comments

BSD.PR.A : DBRS Upgrades To Pfd-5(high)

DBRS has announced that it:

has today upgraded the rating on the Preferred Securities issued by Brookfield Soundvest Split Trust (the Trust) to Pfd-5 (high) from Pfd-5.

In March 2005, the Trust raised gross proceeds of $180 million by issuing 7.2 million Preferred Securities (at $10 each) and an equal number of Capital Units (at $15 each). On March 27, 2015, unitholders of the Trust voted to extend the term of the fund by five years. The new maturity is March 31, 2020.

Based on the latest Portfolio’s yield, the Preferred Securities distribution coverage ratio is approximately 0.4 times. The insufficient amount of Portfolio dividends to cover Preferred Security distributions is projected to create an average annual grind on the Portfolio of approximately 3.3% in the next three years.

As at March 2, 2017, the downside protection available to the Preferred Securities was approximately 17.4%, which represents a gain of about 10% compared to the downside protection amount recorded a year ago. The downside protection has exhibited relative stability in the past four months, settling in the high-teens figures. Nevertheless, it remains subject to volatility, as it depends on the value of underlying securities of the Portfolio. The amount of downside protection and projected grind until the expected end of the term warrant an upgrade of the rating on the Preferred Securities issued by the Trust to Pfd-5 (high).

Assiduous Readers will remember that BSD.PR.A adopted some pretty dubious tactics while getting their term extension, has awful performance and suspended redemptions during the Credit Crunch without giving a reason.

PrefLetter

March, 2017, PrefLetter Released!

The March, 2017, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

PrefLetter may now be purchased by all Canadian residents.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the March, 2017, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the April, 2017, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close April 14 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on April 17.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

Note: My verbosity has grown by such leaps and bounds that it is no longer possible to deliver PrefLetter as an eMail attachment – it’s just too big for my software! Instead, I have sent passwords – click on the link in your eMail and your copy will download.

Note: The PrefLetter website has a Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: PrefLetter eMails sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository – there are some hints in the post Sympatico Spam Filters out of Control. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

Note: There have been other scattered complaints that double-clicking on the links in the “PrefLetter Download” email results in a message that the password has already been used. I have been able to reproduce this problem in my own eMail software … the problem is double-clicking. What happens is the first click opens the link and the second click finds that the password has already been used and refuses to work properly. So the moral of the story is: Don’t be a dick! Single Click!

Note: Assiduous Reader DG informs me:

In case you have any other Apple users: you need to install a free App from the apple store called “FileApp”. It comes with it’s own tutorial and allows you to download and save a PDF file.

However, Assiduous Reader Adrian informs me in the comments to the January 2015 release:

Some nitpicking for DG:
FileApp costs $1.19 in the Apple Store.

But Adrian2 now advises:

Well, as of now, FileApp is free (again?).

So cross your fingers!

Issue Comments

SLF : S&P Improves Outlook to Positive

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •We are revising our outlook on Sun Life Financial to positive, reflecting our belief that the company will maintain AAA capital adequacy post-LICAT rollout, which would lead to an upgrade within the next 24 months.
  • •We also expect the company to maintain modestly growing net income over the next two years.
  • •At the same time, we affirmed our ‘AA-‘ratings on SLF and its core subsidiaries.


“Over the last five years, the company has successfully executed its four-pillar strategy, focusing on its Canadian, Asian, Investment Management and US group benefits businesses.” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Peggy Poon. Given the significantly de-risked business risk profile following the successful sale of the U.S. individual annuity business in 2013 and our forecast for Canada’s macroeconomic environment, we believe the company will maintain ‘AAA’ capital adequacy as measured by our model prospectively in addition to modestly growing its net income over the next few years.

Affected issues are SLF.PR.A, SLF.PR.B, SLF.PR.C, SLF.PR.D, SLF.PR.E, SLF.PR.G, SLF.PR.H, SLF.PR.I, SLF.PR.J and SLF.PR.K.

The FixedResets of the company exhibit an Implied Volatility of 18% … which is higher than the high-single-digits I would consider normal for an investment-grade company, but lower than I would expect if the market fully subscribed to my theory that these issues will eventually be subject to a Deemed Retraction.

impvol_slf_170313
Click for Big

Market Action

March 13, 2017

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5444 % 2,137.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5444 % 3,922.3
Floater 3.56 % 3.69 % 46,591 18.11 4 1.5444 % 2,260.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1567 % 3,008.2
SplitShare 4.98 % 3.75 % 63,114 0.73 5 0.1567 % 3,592.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1567 % 2,803.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.35 % 4.59 % 64,318 2.81 20 0.0098 % 2,743.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.15 % 5.20 % 96,680 15.11 18 0.1814 % 2,930.4
FixedReset 4.40 % 4.15 % 229,286 6.73 98 0.4524 % 2,348.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.05 % 0.39 % 139,870 0.20 31 0.0530 % 2,855.2
FloatingReset 2.48 % 3.24 % 46,184 4.60 9 -0.0053 % 2,495.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 23.98
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.74
Evaluated at bid price : 23.63
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 21.87
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.70
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.27
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 23.74
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.11
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.06
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 20.83
Evaluated at bid price : 20.83
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.78
Evaluated at bid price : 23.19
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 23.07
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.29
Evaluated at bid price : 22.66
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.36
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.48
Bid-YTW : 5.82 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 21.93
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
BIP.PR.B FixedReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.86
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 12.65
Evaluated at bid price : 12.65
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.64
Evaluated at bid price : 22.99
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.12
Evaluated at bid price : 22.43
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 16.25
Evaluated at bid price : 16.25
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 9.06 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset 1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.57
Evaluated at bid price : 23.36
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 16.30
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 20.76
Evaluated at bid price : 20.76
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 12.69
Evaluated at bid price : 12.69
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 12.77
Evaluated at bid price : 12.77
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.C FixedReset 74,168 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.29
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset 65,726 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 65,034 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 20.83
Evaluated at bid price : 20.83
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 41,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 23.07
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 41,293 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 35,721 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 23.98
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
There were 44 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 15.80 – 16.15
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2183

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 15.80
Evaluated at bid price : 15.80
Bid-YTW : 4.41 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.60 – 23.87
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1851

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 23.32
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %

BMO.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 26.06 – 26.24
Spot Rate : 0.1800
Average : 0.1023

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.06
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.10 – 23.32
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1424

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %

IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.70 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2256

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 12.77 – 13.00
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1677

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-03-13
Maturity Price : 12.77
Evaluated at bid price : 12.77
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %

Miscellaneous News

Toronto Rock Lacrosse Tickets: Update #4

I have no more pairs of Toronto Rock Lacrosse tickets to give away!

The fifth lucky winner, who got the tickets for March 25 against the Vancouver Stealth, was Jeremy Tabarrok.

Giveaways this year were:

Toronto Rock Lacrosse Ticket Giveaway
Date Opponent
Saturday
2017-1-28
7pm
Rochester Knighthawks
Friday
2017-2-3
7:30pm
Buffalo Bandits
Friday
2017-3-3
7:30pm
New England Black Wolves
Saturday
2017-3-11
7:00pm
Calgary Roughnecks
Saturday
2017-3-25
7:00pm
Vancouver Stealth

The games are a lot of fun. One thing that has impressed me is that these guys’ technical skills are so good they can concentrate on strategy … there are a lot fewer loose balls than I remember from my days of box lacrosse at age 10!

There will be more tickets next year!

Issue Comments

FTN.PR.A : Annual Report, 2016

Financial 15 Split Inc. has released its Annual Report to November 30, 2016.

FTN / FTN.PR.A Performance
Instrument One
Year
Three
Years
Five
Years
Ten
Years
Whole Unit +16.17% +13.08% +17.33% +3.49%
FTN.PR.A +5.38% +5.38% +5.38% +5.38%
FTN +37.86% +26.24% +42.92% +4.51%
S&P/TSX Financial Index +16.11% +10.73% +14.90% +7.02%
S&P 500 Financial Index +16.49% +20.17% +25.71% +1.27%

Figures of interest are:

MER: 1.16% of the whole unit value, excluding one time initial offering expenses.

Average Net Assets: We need this to calculate portfolio yield. MER of 1.16% Total Expenses of 3,834,619 implies $331-million net assets. Preferred Share distributions of 9,986,252 @ 0.525 / share implies 19.0-million shares out on average. Average Unit Value (beginning & end of year) = (16.85 + 17.18) / 2 = 17.02. Therefore 19.0-million @ 17.02 = 323-million average net assets. Good agreement between these two methods! Call it 327-million average.

Underlying Portfolio Yield: Dividends received (net of withholding) of 9,514,391 divided by average net assets of 327-million is 2.91%

Income Coverage: Net Investment Income of 5,990,665 divided by Preferred Share Distributions of 9,986,252 is 60%.

Issue Comments

BCE.PR.O : Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that BCE.PR.O will reset to 4.26% effective March 31.

Holders of BCE.PR.O have the option to convert to FloatingResets, which will pay 3-month bills plus 309bp on the par value of $25.00, reset quarterly. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is 5:00 p.m. (Montréal/Toronto time) on March 16, 2017; but note that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert! However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion. The ticker for the new FloatingReset, if it is issued, will be BCE.PR.P.

BCE.PR.O came into existence by way of conversion from BAF.PR.C. This was a mandatory exchange following the BCE takeover of Bell Aliant.

BAF.PR.C was a FixedReset, 4.55%+309, that commenced trading 2011-12-7 after being announced 2011-11-21.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BCE.PR.O and the FloatingReset BCE.PR.P that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_170310a
Click for Big

The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are both well below current market rates, at -0.42% and -0.47%, respectively! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the BCE.PR.O FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-to-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset BCE.PR.P (received in exchange for BCE.PR.O) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 0.00% -0.50% -1.00%
BCE.PR.O 23.39 309bp 22.19 21.67 21.16

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, I recommend that holders of BCE.PR.O continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Insofar as the relative valuation of BCE.PR.O is concerned, Implied Volatility analysis indicates it’s a little cheap relative to other BCE issues, but this conclusion may be distorted because BCE.PR.Q is so expensive:

impvol_bce_170310
Click for Big
Issue Comments

BPO.PR.P : Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that BPO.PR.P will reset to 4.161% effective April 1.

Holders of BPO.PR.P have the option to convert to FloatingResets, which will pay 3-month bills plus 300bp on the par value of $25.00, reset quarterly. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on March 16, 2017; but note that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert! However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion. The ticker for the new FloatingReset, if it is issued, will be BPO.PR.Q.

BPO.PR.P is a FixedReset, 5.15%+300, that commenced trading 2010-10-21 after being announced 2010-10-13.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BPO.PR.P and the FloatingReset BPO.PR.Q that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_170310a
Click for Big

The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are both well below current market rates, at -0.42% and -0.47%, respectively! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the BPO.PR.P FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-to-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset BPO.PR.Q (received in exchange for BPO.PR.P) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 0.00% -0.50% -1.00%
BPO.PR.P 20.32 300bp 19.15 18.65 18.15

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, I recommend that holders of BPO.PR.P continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Insofar as the relative valuation of BPO.PR.P is concerned, Implied Volatility analysis indicates it’s reasonably priced relative to other BPO issues:

impvol_bpo_170310
Click for Big
Issue Comments

FFH.PR.K : Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that FFH.PR.K will reset to 4.671% effective April 1.

Holders of FFH.PR.K have the option to convert to FloatingResets, which will pay 3-month bills plus 351bp on the par value of $25.00, reset quarterly. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is 5:00pm (Toronto time) on March 16, 2017; but note that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert! However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion. The ticker for the new FloatingReset, if it is issued, will be FFH.PR.L.

FFH.PR.K is a FixedReset, 5.00%+351, that commenced trading 2012-3-21 after being announced 2012-3-12.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., FFH.PR.K and the FloatingReset FFH.PR.L that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_170310a
Click for Big

The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are both well below current market rates, at -0.42% and -0.47%, respectively! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the FFH.PR.K FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-to-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset FFH.PR.L (received in exchange for FFH.PR.K) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 0.00% -0.50% -1.00%
FFH.PR.K 22.69 351bp 21.52 21.02 20.52

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, I recommend that holders of FFH.PR.K continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Insofar as the relative valuation of FFH.PR.K is concerned, Implied Volatility analysis indicates it’s reasonably priced relative to other FFH issues, although FFH.PR.C seems so expensive it may be distorting the results:

impvol_ffh_170310
Click for Big