Market Action

June 23, 2008

In one of the year’s easier calls, BCE issues skyrocketted today … now, if only I’d known that while Friday’s market was still trading! As suspected, the broader market followed. Volume was OK, but nothing special … my suspicion is that the Swoon in June was largely retail window dressing (based on the the strange price behaviour and relatively low volume) and that institutional players – such as they are – are looking at all this kerfuffle with an air of bemusement.

But what do I know?

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.21% 4.23% 52,104 16.97 1 -0.0393% 1,114.1
Fixed-Floater 4.81% 4.54% 64,821 16.17 7 +5.2272% 1,042.3
Floater 4.01% 4.01% 69,500 17.40 2 +0.7841% 955.2
Op. Retract 4.85% 2.86% 85,966 2.55 15 -0.2108% 1,055.1
Split-Share 5.30% 5.66% 67,029 4.14 15 +0.1020% 1,049.7
Interest Bearing 6.10% 3.08% 47,609 2.01 3 +0.1674% 1,123.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.92% 4.65% 351,774 9.52 13 +0.6112% 1,013.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.95% 6.02% 222,299 13.84 59 +0.8044% 882.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.E OpRet -1.1262% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.01% based on a bid of 25.46 and a call 2011-4-30 at 25.00.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +1.0050% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.01% based on a bid of 20.10 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +1.0101% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.67% based on a bid of 20.00 and a limitMaturity.
W.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +1.1995% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.27% based on a bid of 22.78 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.I PerpetualPremium +1.2000% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.95% based on a bid of 25.30 and a call 2012-5-30 at 25.00.
SBN.PR.A Splitshare +1.2024% Asset coverage of 2.2+:1 as of June 12 according to Mulvihill. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.10% based on a bid of 10.10 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00.
HSB.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +1.2048% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.99% based on a bid of 21.00 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.N PerpetualDiscount +1.3333% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.85% based on a bid of 22.80 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +1.3774% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.23% based on a bid of 18.40 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +1.4263% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.94% based on a bid of 19.20 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.K Floater +1.5702%  
RY.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +1.5873% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.94% based on a bid of 19.20 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +1.6000% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 24.13 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +1.7467% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.11% based on a bid of 23.30 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +1.7653% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.24% based on a bid of 19.60 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +2.0397% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.74% based on a bid of 18.01 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +2.0942% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.80% based on a bid of 19.50 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +2.2727% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.88% based on a bid of 20.25 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount +2.3459% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.99% based on a bid of 22.25 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.L PerpetualDiscount +2.3810% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.04% based on a bid of 21.50 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +2.4313% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.16% based on a bid of 22.75 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.P PerpetualDiscount +2.4719% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.11% based on a bid of 22.80 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +2.5907% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.88% based on a bid of 19.80 and a limitMaturity.
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +2.7027% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.09% based on a bid of 19.80 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +2.7027% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.07% based on a bid of 23.90 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.G FixFloat +4.7727%  
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat +4.8526%  
BCE.PR.C FixFloat +5.6000%  
BCE.PR.R FixFloat +5.8296%  
BCE.PR.I FixFloat +7.5455%  
BCE.PR.A FixFloat +8.1818%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 47,200 Nesbitt bought 10,000 from HSBC at 19.20. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.94% based on a bid of 19.18 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat 41,867 CIBC crossed 40,500 at 23.10.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 36,661 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.67% based on a bid of 20.00 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 33,450 CIBC crossed 25,000 at 19.80. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.05% based on a bid of 19.76 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount 32,100 Nesbitt bought 28,000 from RBC at 18.00 in five tranches. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.74% based on a bid of 18.01 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-one other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Issue Comments

WFS.PR.A Downgraded to Pfd-2(low)/Trend Negative by DBRS

DBRS has today:

downgraded the Preferred Shares issued by World Financial Split Corp. (the Company) to Pfd-2 (low) , with a Negative trend, from Pfd-2. The rating has been removed from Under Review with Developing Implications where it was placed on March 19, 2008.

In February 2004, the Company raised gross proceeds of approximately $471 million by issuing 18.85 million Preferred Shares at $10 each and an equal number of Class A Shares at $15 each. The net proceeds from the offering were invested in a portfolio of common shares (the Portfolio) that included the ten largest financial services companies by market capitalization in each of Canada, the United States and the rest of the world (only companies listed on a North American stock exchange). In addition, up to 20% of the net asset value (NAV) of the Company can be invested in financial services companies other than the 30 companies included in the Portfolio. The initial split share structure provided downside protection of approximately 57% to the Preferred Shares (after expenses).

The holders of the Preferred Shares receive fixed cumulative quarterly distributions equal to 5.25% per annum. The fixed distributions of dividends on the Preferred Shares are funded from the dividends received on the Portfolio Shares, with covered call option premium income and, if necessary, from the sale of the Portfolio’s shares. Holders of the Class A Shares receive regular quarterly cash dividends targeted to yield 8.0% per annum. The Company is currently required to generate a return of about 8% from sources other than dividend income in order to maintain a stable NAV. However, there is a NAV test that greatly mitigates this grind if the Portfolio value continues to deteriorate as no distributions will be paid to the Class A Shareholders if the asset coverage available to the holders of the Preferred Shares drops below 1.5 times (NAV of $15).

The Company’s NAV has experienced downward pressure over the past year, dropping from $22.48 per share to $16.56, a decline of 28%. The current downside protection available to the Preferred Shareholders is approximately 40% (as of June 12, 2008). The downgrade of the Preferred Shares is primarily based on the reduced level of asset coverage available to cover the Preferred Shares principal. The rating has a Negative trend due to the high hurdle rate currently required in order to avoid further deterioration in the NAV.

The redemption date for both classes of shares issued is June 30, 2011

The DBRS mass review of financial splits has been previously discussed. The issue was removed from the S&P/TSX Preferred Share Index effective December with all the other split-shares. WFS.PR.A is a member of the HIMIPref™ Split-Share Index.

Update: See also previous post for WFS.PR.A.

Issue Comments

FBS.PR.B Downgraded to Pfd-2(low) by DBRS

DBRS has today:

downgraded the Class B Preferred Shares (the Preferred Shares) issued by 5Banc Split Inc. (the Company) to Pfd-2 (low), with a Stable trend, from Pfd-2. The rating has been removed from Under Review with Developing Implications where it was placed on March 19, 2008.

In December 2006 and January 2007, the Company raised gross proceeds of $282 million by issuing 14.1 million Preferred Shares at $10 each and an equal number of Capital Shares at $10 each. The net proceeds from the offering were invested in a portfolio of initially equally weighted common shares (the Portfolio) of the top five Canadian chartered banks: Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Royal Bank of Canada and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. The initial split share structure provided downside protection of approximately 48% to the Preferred Shares (after expenses).

The holders of the Preferred Shares receive fixed cumulative quarterly distributions equal to 4.75% per annum. The fixed distributions of dividends on the Preferred Shares are funded from the dividends received on the Portfolio and, if necessary, with proceeds from the sale of the Portfolio’s shares. The current yield on the Portfolio fully covers the Preferred Shares dividend, providing dividend coverage of approximately 1.3 times. Excess dividends net of all expenses of the Company are paid as dividends on the Capital Shares.

The Company’s net asset value (NAV) has experienced downward pressure over the past year, dropping from $19.35 per share to $15.87, a decline of 18%. The current downside protection available to the Preferred Shareholders is approximately 37% (as of June 19, 2008). The downgrade of the Preferred Shares is primarily based on the reduced level of asset coverage available to cover the Preferred Shares principal.

The redemption date for both classes of shares issued is December 15, 2011

The DBRS mass review of financial splits has been previously discussed. FBS.PR.B had a partial call for redemption in November, and was removed from the S&P/TSX Preferred Share Index with all the other split-share corporations at the last rebalancing. It is a included in the HIMIPref™ Split-Share Index.

Update: See also previous post for FBS.PR.B.

Issue Comments

TXT.PR.A Downgraded to Pfd-3(high) by DBRS

DBRS has today:

downgraded the Preferred Securities issued by Top 10 Split Trust (the Trust) to Pfd-3 (high) , with a Stable trend, from Pfd-2 (low). The rating has been removed from Under Review with Developing Implications where it was placed on March 19, 2008.

In February and March of 2006, the Trust raised gross proceeds of approximately $70 million by issuing 2.72 million Preferred Securities at $12.50 each and an equal number of Capital Units at $13.10 each. The net proceeds from the offering were invested in a portfolio of common shares (the Portfolio) that included the six largest Canadian chartered banks (Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada and The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and the four largest Canadian life insurance companies (Great-West Lifeco Inc., Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc., Manulife Financial Corporation and Sun Life Financial Inc.). The Portfolio is actively managed by Mulvihill Capital Management Inc., and the Trust will generally invest not less than 5% and not more than 15% of its assets in the securities of each issuer in the Portfolio. The initial split share structure provided downside protection of approximately 48% to the Preferred Securities (after expenses).

The holders of the Preferred Securities receive fixed quarterly distributions equal to 6.25% per annum. The interest payments on the Preferred Securities are funded from the dividends received from the Portfolio, covered call option premium income and, if necessary, with proceeds from the sale of the Portfolio’s shares. Holders of the Capital Units receive regular quarterly cash dividends targeted to yield 7.5% of the net asset value (NAV) of the Trust per annum. Basing the distributions on the NAV of the Trust reduces the hurdle rate for the Trust and its requirement to write more options in the event of a declining NAV. The Trust is currently required to generate a return of about 5% from sources other than dividend income in order to maintain a stable NAV.

The Trust’s NAV has experienced downward pressure over the past year, dropping from $23.87 per share to $19.61, a decline of about 18%. The current downside protection available to the Preferred Shareholders is approximately 36% (as of June 12, 2008). The downgrade of the Preferred Securities is primarily based on the reduced level of asset coverage available to cover the Preferred Securities principal.

The DBRS mass review of financial splits has been previously discussed. TXT.PR.A is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

Issue Comments

BMO.PR.M Settles without Incident

The Fixed Reset 5.20%+165bp issue announced on June 12 settled today with good volume and tone. 308,269 shares traded in a range of 24.90-97, closing with a quote of 24.90-92, 14×230.

I have not yet seen a press release regarding the successful closing, which should also indicate how much, if any, of the greenshoe was taken up. There were 10-million shares in the issue, with a greenshoe for an additional 2-million shares exercisable prior to closing.

I still don’t like this issue structure … but with six of them now outstanding, it would appear that many people do! Once we get to ten good sized issues with this type of reset mechanism, I will commence tracking the issues with HIMIPref™ … and who knows, perhaps taking the occasional position when the yields get out of line!

Reader Initiated Comments

Market Timing?

I received the following eMail from a Reader who is not as Assiduous as he should be:

I haven’t been to your blog for a while but I went there today to get your perspective on what was happening with preferred spreads. Sure looks like a buying opportunity at 6%+ as one of your readers commented (RY, SLF , Pow, Pwf …. do not hesitate , do not be afraid , do not analyse to much , BUY !!). Others would analyze as don’t buy to average down. What’s your (long term) perspective on all this? Are you buying (what would be your top 10 list in this market)? Regards,

P.S. Feel free to post on your blog.

The post being referred to is Party Like It’s 1999!, in which I made the point that the interest-equivalent PerpetualDiscount spread was pretty close to a ten year high; the comment quoted was by Assiduous Reader lafontaine. And as far as a “Top 10 List” is concerned … I offer that service – not precisely ‘Top 10’ but the same idea – through my monthly newsletter, PrefLetter.

I don’t like market timing and I don’t do market timing. Financial Markets are chaotic; things that weren’t important a year ago can become the driving force in the blink of an eye; the Law of Unintended Consequences punishes any policy-maker with the temerity to indulge in central planning (and any portfolio manager with the temerity to overlay his own projections on policy changes); and, perhaps most insidiously, there are a lot of players with a vested interest in confusing the issue.

Journalists need something to write about; Dealers want to change your analysis of a situation so you’ll trade. Financial advisors find it easier to convince clients that the account is being aggressively and pro-actively managed in their best interest if there are a few actual trades to point at.

And every trade costs money – commissions and spread and sometimes market impact.

My philosopy is to be fully invested at all times. Make yourself an asset allocation based on your personal needs and your long-term view of expected risks and returns. Review it once a year. Always ask yourself: ‘What if I’m wrong?’

A disdain for market timing does not mean inactivity. My fund does an awful lot of trading … but this is never because of a view that the market is going to go up or down. It’s simply me telling the cowboys: ‘You want to trade? You want to pay the spread? You want to pay the cost of market impact? OK, you can pay that to me. Twist my arm!’ I’m not always right when I agree to a trade. Fortunately, I don’t have to be right every time to do a good job for my clients. Historically, my assessments of relative value have been accurate enough to outperform the market – although, I must point out, that is no guarantee for the future!

The more similar two instruments, the easier it is to identify the cheap one. Two discounted perps from the same issuer are easy to compare. A PerpetualDiscount and a PerpetualPremium from the same issuer is a little harder. A PerpetualDiscount and cash is … difficult in the extreme.

That being said, I think the recent decline in the market is overdone. It has happened without corresponding declines in the broader credit markets; it has happened without particularly horrible news from the issuers [bank common shareholders may well suffer in the coming months. So? I’m buying their prefs on the basis of them being able to (i) continue paying the dividend, and (ii) avoiding a bankruptcy that would impair my capital. I can’t see any but the most infinitesimal changes in the probability of those two outcomes]. Inflation is always a worry, but (a) it appears to be under control, and (b) back on the Central Bankers’ agendas and (c) not considered a major problem by the broader credit markets.

I consider that the extra interest-equivalent yield provided by preferreds handsomely compensates for their additional term risk, liquidity risk and credit risk (provided you don’t overdo it! What if I’m wrong?). As spreads increase without a clear fundamental driver, I suspect that more and more people will eventually agree with me. These people will pile into the market, absorbing spread costs and market impact costs … and I will certainly exert my utmost efforts to put myself in position to say ‘Thank you very much! Ka-Ching!

Monday June 23 will be a most interesting day. We can expect BCE issues to skyrocket, as the chances of the deal closing have increased; to the extent that (i) the money that may be received by BCE preferred shareholders will the reinvested in the preferred market and (ii) the market anticipates this tsunami of money; we may well see a good pop in the broader preferred share market. Will I bet on it? Have I bet on it? No and No.

Market Action

June 20, 2008

Stop presses! Sit down! Have some smelling salts! The PerpetualDiscount index was actually up today (up almost 42bp, in fact), ending a string of twelve consecutive losses from June 4 to June 19, inclusive. Those twelve consecutive losses took the PerpetualDiscount index down 5.80%.

Average pre-tax bid-YTW for PerpetualDiscounts is now 6.07%, interest-equivalent 8.50%, long corporates .. oh, call it 6.17% and 30-year Canadas at 4.15%.

Work out the spreads and update the graphs yourselves, ya bums! What am I, your maid?

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.20% 4.22% 51,358 17.00 1 -0.0393% 1,114.6
Fixed-Floater 5.06% 4.85% 62,750 15.82 7 -0.8252% 990.6
Floater 4.04% 4.04% 69,487 17.35 2 -0.4349% 947.8
Op. Retract 4.84% 2.43% 86,636 2.44 15 +0.8648% 1,057.4
Split-Share 5.31% 5.67% 68,606 4.15 15 +0.0429% 1,048.6
Interest Bearing 6.11% 3.77% 48,125 2.01 3 -0.2333% 1,121.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.96% 4.61% 360,772 10.27 13 -0.0252% 1,007.0
Perpetual-Discount 6.00% 6.07% 223,135 13.78 59 +0.4181% 875.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.I FixFloat -3.7199%  
BCE.PRA FixFloat -2.0481%  
POW.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.6822% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.31% based on a bid of 22.21 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat -1.5625% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.97% based on a bid of 22.05 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -1.4500% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.15% based on a bid of 20.39 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.B PerpetualDiscount -1.1845% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.18% based on a bid of 21.69 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -1.1059% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.24% based on a bid of 23.25 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.H PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.0962% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.99% based on a bid of 24.36 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount +1.0693% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.15% based on a bid of 21.74 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.P PerpetualDiscount +1.1364% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.27% based on a bid of 22.25 and a limitMaturity.
HSB.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +1.1423% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.03% based on a bid of 21.25 and a limitMaturity.
HSB.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +1.1702% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 20.75 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +1.2168% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.11% based on a bid of 18.30 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +1.2603% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.68% based on a bid of 23.30 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +1.3263% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.92% based on a bid of 19.10 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +1.3966% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.31% based on a bid of 18.15 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +1.4000% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.77% based on a bid of 20.28 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.J OpRet +1.4724% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.52% based on a bid of 24.81 and a softMaturity 2018-3-30 at 25.00. Compare with BAM.PR.H (4.07% to 2008-10-30), BAM.PR.I (5.12% to 2013-12-30) and the new issue (5.02% to 2013-6-29).
RY.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +1.6427% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.01% based on a bid of 19.80 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +1.8388% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.04% based on a bid of 21.60 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.N PerpetualDiscount +2.2263% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.93% based on a bid of 22.50 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.C FixFloat +2.2727%  
BMO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +2.7273% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.90% based on a bid of 22.60 and a limitMaturity.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
MFC.PR.B PerpetualDiscount 273,166 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.77% based on a bid of 20.28 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.P PerpetualDiscount 208,374 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.82% based on a bid of 22.91 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 207,052 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.72% based on a bid of 19.80 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.K PerpetualDiscount 205,100 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.79% based on a bid of 21.10 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.F PerpetualPremium 100,853 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.48% based on a bid of 25.40 and a call 2012-10-30 at 25.00.

There were twenty-two other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Issue Comments

L.PR.A Goes Stale on Shelf

Loblaw’s has announced:

the completion today of the sale of 9.0 million cumulative redeemable convertible Second Preferred Shares, Series A, to yield 5.95% per annum, to a syndicate of underwriters co-led by RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and CIBC World Markets Inc. for distribution to the public. The aggregate gross proceeds of the sale were $225 million. The Preferred Shares, Series A have been listed and posted to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “L.PR.A”.

The announcement of this issue was reported on PrefBlog with the opinion:

This issue looks expensive.

It would appear the market agrees! The terms of the greenshoe were that the option had to be exercised prior to closing; but the size shown in the current press release indicates that the extra shares have not been issued.

It was a thoroughly pathetic opening day, with 4,448 shares trading in a range of 24.70-90, closing at 24.00-70, 10×52. The underwriters didn’t pretend to support the issue; at one point today the bid was 23.00.

More later.

Later, more:At $24.00, it doesn’t look so bad … but it’s scarcely an inventory blow-out sale!

Bear in mind that Pfd-3 issues (regardless of modifier) are considerably less liquid than they would be if they were higher grade. They will also tend to trade with higher correlation to the company’s common than they would otherwise; they are more equity-like than higher grade issues, both in theory and practice. I do not recommend a weighting of more than 10% total Pfd-3 issues in a diversified preferred share portfolio, with no more than 5% in any one name; have more than this if you like, but I will consider your portfolio to be “equity-substitute” rather than “fixed-income”.

Loblaw New Issue
and Some Comparators
Ticker DBRS
Rating
Current
Quote
Retraction
Date
Yield
to
Retraction
(at bid)
L.PR.A Pfd-3 24.00-70 2015-7-30

6.81%
BPO.PR.K Pfd-3(high) 22.60-69 2016-12-30 6.72%
YPG.PR.B Pfd-3(high) 20.30-85 2017-6-29 8.00%
DW.PR.A Pfd-3 22.00-24 2017-3-12 6.60%
Issue Comments

ALB.PR.A Rating of Pfd-2(low) Confirmed by DBRS

The credit rating of Allbanc Split Corp. II has been confirmed by DBRS:

DBRS has today confirmed the Preferred Shares issued by Allbanc Split Corp. II (the Company) at Pfd-2 (low) with a Stable trend. The rating has been removed from Under Review with Developing Implications where it was placed on March 19, 2008.

In February 2006, the Company raised gross proceeds of approximately $322 million by issuing 6.73 million Preferred Shares at $25.00 each and 13.46 million Capital Shares at $11.40 each. The net proceeds from the offering were invested in a portfolio of common shares (the Portfolio Shares) of the top six Canadian chartered banks: Bank of Montreal (19%), Bank of Nova Scotia (19%), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (19%), Royal Bank of Canada (19%), The Toronto-Dominion Bank (19%) and National Bank of Canada (5%). The initial split share structure provided downside protection of approximately 45% to the Preferred Shares (after expenses).

The holders of the Preferred Shares receive fixed cumulative quarterly distributions equal to 4.25% per annum. The fixed distributions of dividends on the Preferred Shares are funded from the dividends received on the Portfolio Shares and, if necessary, with proceeds from the sale of Portfolio Shares or from covered call option premium income as determined by the board of directors. The current yield on the Portfolio Shares fully covers the Preferred Shares dividends, providing dividend coverage of approximately 1.6 times. Excess dividends net of all expenses of the Company are paid as dividends on the Capital Shares or re-invested by the Company in additional Portfolio Shares as determined by the board of directors of the Company.

The Company’s net asset value has experienced downward pressure over the past year, dropping from $52.86 to $42.87, a decline of about 19%. The current downside protection available to the Preferred Shareholders is approximately 41% (as of June 12, 2008). The confirmation of the Preferred Shares is based on the current level of asset coverage available to cover the Preferred Shares principal, the high dividend coverage ratio and the strong credit quality of the banks included in the Portfolio.

The redemption date for both classes of shares issued is February 28, 2011.

This would not normally be considered newsworthy, but I am tracking the effects of the DBRS mass review of financial split-shares. On 3/13, the asset coverage ratio was 1.6:1; as of June 19, the coverage is 1.7:1.

ALB.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is incorporated in the Split-Share Index.

Update: See also previous post for ALB.PR.A.

Miscellaneous News

BCE Wins Supreme Court Appeal

From Bloomberg:

The Supreme Court of Canada, in a unanimous ruling in Ottawa today, overturned a decision of the Quebec Court of Appeal that had derailed BCE’s plan for having ignored the interests of the company’s bondholders.

The decision removes one hurdle to closing the purchase of Montreal-based BCE, Canada’s biggest phone company, by Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and U.S. private-equity firms. Completion isn’t certain, as banks have sought to renegotiate terms of debt in LBOs amid a contraction in credit markets, seeking higher interest rates and tighter loan restrictions, and derailing more than 60 buyout plans since last year.

DBRS has announced:

its current ratings on BCE Inc. (BCE or the Company) and Bell Canada continue to remain Under Review with Negative Implications following today’s unanimous judgment by the Supreme Court of Canada which will allow the planned privatization to proceed.

The ratings were originally placed Under Review with Negative Implications on April 17, 2007. This was maintained after the privatization plan was announced on June 30, 2007. The plan is led by an investor group that includes Teachers’ Private Capital, a division of the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and includes Providence Equity Partners Inc. and Madison Dearborn Partners, LLC. Subsequently, Merrill Lynch took up an equity commitment. Collectively the sponsors have committed to invest $7.75 billion in equity to fund this transaction.

DBRS will maintain its review while it continues its discussions with BCE and the investor group. As a closing date approaches, DBRS will resolve this status with rating guidance based on the final terms of the transaction and its new Leveraged Finance rating methodology.

DBRS’s new methodology uses the default rating and a new Recovery Ratings scale to determine an instrument rating for each piece of new and existing indebtedness. The resulting ratings will likely cover multiple notches, ranging well above and below an Issuer Rating that could be in the lower end of the BB range.