PrefBlog

Yesterday I mentioned redemptions in property funds in the UK and the suspension of redemptions in the Standard Life fund. Standard Life has company!

Three of the U.K.’s largest real estate funds have frozen almost 9.1 billion pounds ($12 billion) of assets after Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union sparked a flurry of redemptions.

M&G Investments, Aviva Investors and Standard Life Investments halted withdrawals because they don’t have enough cash to immediately repay investors. About 24.5 billion pounds is allocated to U.K. real estate funds, according to the Investment Association.
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The rush by private investors to withdraw money prompted M&G, which held 7.7 percent in cash before the vote, to suspend its 4.4 billion-pound Property Portfolio fund and Aviva Investors to freeze its 1.8 billion-pound Property Trust on Tuesday. Standard Life halted trading on its 2.9 billion-pound U.K. real estate fund on Monday. The cash position for Aviva and Standard Life’s funds at the end of May was 9.3 percent and 13.1 percent respectively, documents showed.

There has been concern for a long time about the effects of having a very liquid layer of ETFs representing investments in highly illiquid assets, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Have investors been over-paying for liquidity? Will the regulators develop so many liquidity rules that the sector cannot function?

The federal Bombardier bail-out is on hold:

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government doesn’t expect to reach an aid deal with aircraft manufacturer Bombardier Inc. before the fall, according to officials familiar with the talks.
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Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains, the government’s point-person in negotiations, is due to meet with Bombardier executives next week at the Farnborough International Airshow. Negotiations, however, remain stalled and Trudeau’s team expects no developments this summer, believing Bombardier has a year or more before it faces a serious cash crunch, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity as the talks are private.

Some analysts are attempting to come to grips with the effect of self-driving cars:

But what if by 2030 more people are willing to embrace self-driving cars? All the legal and regulatory issues have been ironed out and people have grown comfortable with the idea of riding rather than driving. Under this scenario, 30 percent of cars belong to shared autonomous fleets. Another 23 percent of privately owned cars are fully autonomous. Only 47 percent of the cars are private conventional vehicles.

This shift to higher-occupancy, longer-lasting vehicles would result in an 8.6 percent decline in vehicle sales (compared to the baseline 16.5 million units that would be needed to meet organic demand in 2030 if nothing changed.)

In the most extreme scenario, the number of cars on the road would fall by half because more people would rely on shared, autonomous vehicles rather than privately owned vehicles. (Call Uber for a ride, and a robot car would pick you up, or take a train to the city, and hop in a driverless cab for the last mile. Even families could share one autonomous car.)

Those shared vehicles would rack up miles faster, however, so they would need to be replaced sooner. The net result for automakers: a 26 percent drop in vehicle demand.

The world’s biggest pension fund is being criticized for high risk:

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund will probably post a 4.4 trillion yen ($43 billion) loss in the April-June quarter, according to calculations by Yohei Iwao, executive director of the institutional equities division at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. That follows what he estimates was a 5 trillion yen decline in the fiscal year ended March 31, which would amount to the worst performance since fiscal 2009 when the fund lost 9.7 trillion yen.

The calculations come amid criticism the government has put the public’s pension money at risk after the fund known as the whale for the size of its assets increased its equity allocations in 2014. That’s prompted the main opposition party to pledge GPIF will move investments back into safer ones in its manifesto ahead of elections this month.
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GPIF likely held about 43 percent of its portfolio in domestic bonds at the end of June, higher than its target of 35 percent for the asset, he said. Japanese stocks probably accounted for 22 percent, while international equities made up 22 percent, Iwao said. He estimates foreign debt stood at 14 percent. GPIF’s target for equities is 25 percent each, and 15 percent for international bonds.

It is interesting that the fund has a much more conservative asset mix than the Canada Pension Plan!

Brexit’s implications are far-reaching:

Realtors in Toronto and Vancouver are pitching Canadian cities as relatively safe property havens now that London, for years one of the world’s leading targets of foreign capital, suddenly looks a lot riskier. Blame it on Brexit.

“Brexit’s good for us, not for them,” said Anita Springate-Renaud, owner of Engel & Völkers’ brokerage in Toronto, who expects to field calls from clients seeking to redirect their investments. “We are a safe bet.”

If Springate-Renaud is right, there may be heightened demand from moneyed clients for homes and condos as well as office towers in two of Canada’s hottest real estate markets, which already have seen prices soar from an influx of foreign money.
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Royal LePage is advising clients that Brexit is likely to cause the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates lower for longer, which will stoke demand in the residential market, said Adil Dinani, a Vancouver agent for the unit of Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc.

Any additional trickle of demand into Vancouver and Toronto could prove a headache for Canadian policy makers seeking to damp record high home prices. In recent weeks, the International Monetary Fund, Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, and Bank of Canada have all flagged the increasing risk of a potential correction.

“It’s something we’re going to have to talk about because there are concerns about overheating,” said Royal LePage’s Dinani. “We’ll likely see more capital inflows into these cities, so what is that going to look like? Are there going to be policy tools put in place to protect the market from further increases?”

And there may be some money on the way!

Standard Life Investments suspended trading in its 2.9 billion-pound ($3.9 billion) U.K. Real Estate fund on Monday after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union triggered a surge in redemptions.

The fund, which invests in a mix of prime commercial real estate assets, was halted at midday and the decision will be reviewed every 28 days, the Edinburgh, Scotland-based fund manager said in a statement. Standard Life adjusted the value of the underlying assets by 5 percent last week.
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Investors are pulling money as industry commentators warn that London office values could fall by as much as 20 percent within three years of the country leaving the European Union. [Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Laith] Khalaf estimated that about 25 billion pounds is invested in property sector funds by U.K. investors, including those that invest in stocks.

I have long suspected that the UK’s war on bankers would eventually backfire; perhaps it has been a contributing factor:

The race is on to be the new London.

Unless Britain finds a way to undo its decision to leave the European Union, London’s days as the pre-eminent global financial capital, ranked even ahead of New York, may be numbered.

I spoke this week to several high-ranking executives at major financial institutions that collectively employ tens of thousands in London. While none of them have any immediate plans to move their European headquarters from Britain’s capital, all agreed they would eventually shift a significant number of highly paid employees to cities that remain in the European Union.

The author opines that third place in the Good Job Sweepstakes goes to Vienna; second to Frankfurt; and first to Amsterdam:

Not only do 90 percent of the Dutch speak English, many speak it better than the English themselves. Its schools are ranked the best in Europe, and there are plenty of English-language options. The city has beautiful architecture and housing options, picturesque canals, excellent restaurants, music and theater, lively night life, and a cosmopolitan and tolerant attitude cultivated over centuries as a major global trading center.

It has one of Europe’s best airports, ranked just behind Frankfurt and Vienna, and an excellent rail network connecting major European capitals, including London. It’s a short train ride to Brussels, the capital of the European Union.
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The problem? Badly hurt by the financial crisis, the Dutch have capped bankers’ bonuses at just 20 percent of their annual salaries — a far more drastic curb than was imposed by the European Union. Several bankers told me that unless the Dutch repealed the cap, they wouldn’t consider moving to Amsterdam. “I’d love to relocate to Amsterdam,” one top executive told me. “But I don’t think we’re wanted there.”

Out of curiosity, I examined the same criteria and scored London itself. The result?

London earns a near-perfect 58 points. The only black mark was its quality of life, primarily because of its high cost. Mercer ranks London just 39th (New York ranks 44th).

But Brexit brings to the US one benefit … which central bankers might consider more of a problem:

Mortgage rates hit a new low for the year, falling to 3.48 percent after Britain voted for a divorce from Europe. Last week, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan was 3.56 percent, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago it was above 4 percent.

We’re this close to the record low 3.31 percent rates posted in November 2012. Back then, borrowing costs hit rock bottom because there wasn’t much demand for loans in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. Stock prices were falling, too, sending big investors in search of a safe place to park their money. That flight to financial safety typically sends mortgages rates down.

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And that’s it for another month! Have a good long weekend, folks!