Market Action

July 12, 2016

It seems to me that this here internet thingamajig might be useful for business:

Home renovation chain Rona says its efforts to attract tech-savvy shoppers got a recent boost when the retailer temporarily replaced its printed flyer with an expanded digital offering.

The Montreal-based company says sales doubled at its stores across Canada despite scrapping the printed flyer during a nationwide test one week in February.

Jean Coutu, one of Canada’s largest pharmacy networks, said it’s also seeing success with its digital efforts. The company said cosmetic sales got a five per cent lift after it twice published a 20-page digital flyer this year enhanced with videos on the Montreal La Presse Plus tablet and website.

How about that new Brookfield infrastructure fund, eh?:

Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (“Brookfield”) (NYSE: BAM, TSX: BAM.A, Euronext: BAMA) announced today that it held the final close on Brookfield Infrastructure Fund III (“BIF III” or the “Fund”) with an aggregate of $14 billion of equity commitments, creating a global infrastructure fund that invests in high-quality, core infrastructure assets on a value basis.

BIF III marks the largest private fund raised by Brookfield and the largest private infrastructure fund ever raised in the industry. In the last 18 months, Brookfield has raised approximately $27 billion across its flagship private fund strategies, including the close of its flagship real estate fund, Brookfield Strategic Real Estate Partners II at $9 billion, and its flagship private equity fund, Brookfield Capital Partners IV at $4 billion. All three funds surpassed their fundraising targets.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6952 % 1,655.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6952 % 3,024.6
Floater 4.96 % 4.77 % 92,820 15.94 4 0.6952 % 1,743.1
OpRet 4.85 % 1.02 % 41,628 0.14 1 0.0396 % 2,844.8
SplitShare 5.14 % 5.20 % 97,023 2.34 5 -0.0646 % 3,350.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0646 % 2,613.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.50 % -9.85 % 80,671 0.09 12 0.0944 % 2,673.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.26 % 5.21 % 100,746 15.05 26 0.2146 % 2,815.3
FixedReset 5.11 % 4.32 % 149,635 7.18 88 0.7880 % 1,984.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.02 % 4.54 % 129,840 4.86 33 0.1720 % 2,761.8
FloatingReset 2.98 % 4.85 % 35,336 5.16 11 0.2160 % 2,099.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 17.31
Evaluated at bid price : 17.31
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 12.77
Evaluated at bid price : 12.77
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
BAM.PR.S FloatingReset -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 14.60
Evaluated at bid price : 14.60
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 7.29 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 17.14
Evaluated at bid price : 17.14
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 19.73
Evaluated at bid price : 19.73
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.78
Bid-YTW : 7.95 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 21.74
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.35
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 17.71
Evaluated at bid price : 17.71
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 10.10
Evaluated at bid price : 10.10
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 9.89
Evaluated at bid price : 9.89
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.34
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.42
Bid-YTW : 11.21 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 11.41
Evaluated at bid price : 11.41
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.80
Bid-YTW : 10.08 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.59
Bid-YTW : 7.54 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 7.36 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 10.16
Evaluated at bid price : 10.16
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.69
Bid-YTW : 7.44 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 6.86 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 16.98
Evaluated at bid price : 16.98
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 17.58
Evaluated at bid price : 17.58
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 8.18 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.61
Bid-YTW : 10.16 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.53
Bid-YTW : 7.52 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.11
Bid-YTW : 8.37 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 18.96
Evaluated at bid price : 18.96
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 19.19
Evaluated at bid price : 19.19
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 19.40
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 19.35
Evaluated at bid price : 19.35
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset 2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 15.15
Evaluated at bid price : 15.15
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset 2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 6.92 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 14.25
Evaluated at bid price : 14.25
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 2.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 19.62
Evaluated at bid price : 19.62
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 3.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 13.53
Evaluated at bid price : 13.53
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.E OpRet 90,586 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-08-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 1.02 %
NA.PR.A FixedReset 84,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.20
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 82,144 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.02
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 65,410 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 7.29 %
RY.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 50,804 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 24.42
Evaluated at bid price : 24.82
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
NA.PR.X FixedReset 43,950 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.33
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 17.31 – 17.85
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3848

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-12
Maturity Price : 17.31
Evaluated at bid price : 17.31
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

RY.PR.L FixedReset Quote: 25.20 – 25.50
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1801

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %

HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.00 – 25.29
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1804

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 14.15 – 14.64
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3815

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.15
Bid-YTW : 9.75 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.41 – 22.75
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2405

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 6.13 %

TD.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 23.56 – 23.86
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2033

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.56
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %

Issue Comments

CSE.PR.A: Convert Or Hold?

It will be recalled that CSE.PR.A will reset to 3.271% effective July 31.

Holders of CSE.PR.A have the option to convert to FloatingResets, which will pay 3-month bills plus 271bp on the par value of $25.00, reset quarterly. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is 5:00 p.m. (EST) on July 18, 2016; but note that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert! However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion. The ticker for the new FloatingReset, if it is created, has not yet been confirmed.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BAM.PR.R and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_FR_160712
Click for Big

The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are both below zero, at -0.90% and -0.27%, respectively! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the CSE.PR.A FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-to-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for CSE.PR.A) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 0.00% -0.50% -1.00%
CSE.PR.A 11.35 271bp 10.88 10.41 9.95

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, I recommend that holders of CSE.PR.A continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Note as well that conversion rights are dependent upon at least one million shares of each series being outstanding after giving effect to holders’ instructions; e.g., if only 100,000 shares of CSE.PR.A are tendered for conversion, then no conversions will be allowed; but if only 100,000 shares of CSE.PR.A will remain after the rest are all tendered, then conversion will be mandatory. However, this is relatively rare: all 51 Strong Pairs currently extant have some version of this condition and all but six have both series outstanding.

Miscellaneous News

FPSC Releases Projection Assumption Guidelines for 2016

OK, so this doesn’t have much to do with preferred shares. But it is such a basic part of portfolio planning and so little known that I really should give it its own post. I mentioned last year’s version on May 25, 2015.

The Financial Planning Standards Council has announced:

and Institut québécois de planification financière (IQPF) have released updated unified Projection Assumption Guidelines for financial planners across Canada. Developed in 2015 by a committee of actuarial and financial planning professionals and updated annually, the Guidelines aid financial planners in making medium and long-term financial projections that are free from potential biases or predispositions.

The 2016 updates were completed with extensive feedback from financial planners across Canada and financial firms from across industry sectors. Based on feedback, additions incorporated into the 2016 Guidelines include:

  • •Rate of return assumption guidelines for foreign developed market equities (including U.S. market and EAFE market equities) and emerging market equities, as well as rate of return assumption guidelines for short-term investments, Canadian fixed income and Canadian equities
  • •Margins within which financial planners may deviate from the rate of return assumption guidelines, with explanation for how to apply the margins
  • •Additional explanations for the rate of return assumption guidelines referenced in footnotes, as well as in the body of the report
  • •Updated life expectancy information

The Projection Assumption Guidelines for 2016 are the following:

Inflation rate: 2.1%
Return rates
Short term: 3.0%
Fixed income: 4.0%
Canadian equities: 6.4%
Foreign developed market equities: 6.8%
Emerging market equities: 7.7%
YMPE or MPE growth rate 3.1%
Borrowing rate: 5.0%

To ensure full transparency and replicability, the Guidelines are drawn from four publicly available data sources: the Canada Pension Plan, Quebec Pension Plan, Willis Towers Watson portfolio managers’ survey, and historical data (based on the DEX 91-day T-bill index S&P/TSX, the DEX Universe Bond™ [Canadian bonds] index, the S&P/TSX [Canadian equities] index, the S&P 500 [U.S. equities] index, the MSCI EAFE [Europe, Australia, Far East] index and the MSCI Emerging Markets index).

“Updates to the Projection Assumption Guidelines ensure that financial planners are equipped with the current information to make financial projections,” says Joan Yudelson, FPSC Vice President of Professional Practice, “allowing them to project their clients’ progress toward meeting their life goals and provide appropriate financial planning advice to address any gaps.”

The 2016 Guidelines are in effect as of June 30, 2016. Full detail on the 2016 unified Projection Assumption Guidelines can be found here.

I must say, a nominal return of 4% for Fixed Income looks very optimistic, given that long Canadas yield 1.65% and long corporates are about 3.7%! The main document states that:

The Guidelines were set by combining assumptions from the following sources (each weighted at 25%):

  • assumption used in the most recent QPP actuarial analysis, weighted as follows: 50% of the medium-term assumption (2013 to 2022) and 50% of the long-term assumption (2023 and later)
  • assumption used in the most recent CPP actuarial report (2019 and later)
  • result of the Willis Towers Watson annual portfolio managers’ survey, weighted as follows: 50% of the medium-term projection (year to year) and 50% of the long-term projection (year to year)
  • historic returns over the 50 years ending the previous December 31st (adjusted for inflation) or dating back to inception of the index

The historical component is based on the DEX 91-day T-bill index S&P/TSX, the DEX Universe Bond™ (Canadian bonds) index, the S&P/TSX (Canadian equities) index, the S&P 500 (U.S. equities) index, the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index and the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

… and ….

The fixed income assumptions used in the most recent QPP and CPP actuarial reports have been adjusted to account for the opportunity of the QPP and CPP to buy and hold fixed income securities for significantly longer than the typical holding period of individuals. A margin of 0.75% is therefore deducted from the QPP and CPP actuarial assumptions to convert the long-term fixed income assumptions into a more relevant fixed income assumption for individual financial planning.

This does not fill my heart with comfort. Using historical returns as an input for fixed income projections is not an endeavor I would recommend to my friends (it can be justified with equities). Perhaps somebody would like to defend the 4% projection in the comments?

The actual document has material of further interest, including portfolio guidelines:

Portfolio return assumptions based on asset allocation
Investor profile: Conservative Balanced Aggressive
Short term: 5% 5% 5%
Fixed income: 70% 45% 20%
Canadian equities: 25% 40% 35%
Foreign developed market equities 0 10% 25%
Emerging market equities 0   15%
Gross return before fees 4.55% 5.19% 6.05%
Assumed fees 1.25% 1.25% 1.25%
Net return after fees 3.30% 3.94% 4.80%
Issue Comments

BCE.PR.I To Reset To 2.75%

BCE Inc. has announced that:

BCE Inc. will, on August 1, 2016, continue to have Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series AI (“Series AI Preferred Shares”) outstanding if, following the end of the conversion period on July 22, 2016, BCE Inc. determines that at least 2 million Series AI Preferred Shares would remain outstanding. In such a case, as of August 1, 2016, the Series AI Preferred Shares will pay, on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of BCE Inc., a fixed cash dividend for the following five years that will be based on an annual fixed dividend rate equal to 2.75%.

The pending Exchange Date has been previously reported. As noted there, this FixedFloater issue is interconvertible with the Ratchet Rate preferred, BCE.PR.J:

In order to convert your shares, you must exercise your right of conversion during the conversion period, which runs from June 17, 2016 to July 22, 2016, inclusively.

I will make a recommendation regarding conversion on July 18, but at this point I’m leaning towards the RatchetRate issue, BCE.PR.J, on the grounds that Canada Prime is 2.70% and I find it much easier to believe in an increase over the next five years than a decrease, the current breakeven rate (given bids of 13.48 for BCE.PR.I and 13.59 for BCE.PR.J) of 2.86% is in line with other issues, and the prices are – given current conditions – likely to be so close together after the exchange that there’s not much point trying to make a trading profit based on the conversion.

pairs_FF_160712
Click for Big
Market Action

July 11, 2016

To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction:

As recreational and commercially available drones become more advanced, areas that are off limits are having to develop plans to keep drones out. Other than taking a rifle and shooting one down, there really aren’t many options on the market to keep drones away from places like prisons, military bases, and other restricted air spaces. Dedrone is a company seeking to bridge that market gap by creating a drone detection and jamming system. Using an array of sensors, lasers, and jammers, the Dedrone system will detect when a malicious drone enters designated airspace and automatically take defensive action.

There’s a causal link between Brexit and the commercial property chaos:

Some commercial property buyers are invoking “Brexit clauses” written into contracts agreed before Britain voted to leave the European Union, allowing them to walk away from the deals.

In other cases buyers have yet to exercise such get-out clauses but are keeping the option open to try to renegotiate the price down, according to property lawyers and managers.

A third group is playing for time in the hope that the effect of the June 23 referendum result on values becomes clearer, they say.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2017 % 1,644.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2017 % 3,003.7
Floater 4.99 % 4.78 % 93,101 15.91 4 0.2017 % 1,731.1
OpRet 4.85 % 1.28 % 38,543 0.14 1 0.1983 % 2,843.6
SplitShare 5.14 % 5.65 % 96,689 4.60 5 0.1051 % 3,352.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1051 % 2,615.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.50 % -12.75 % 81,706 0.09 12 0.3725 % 2,670.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.27 % 5.23 % 100,367 15.01 26 0.7106 % 2,809.3
FixedReset 5.15 % 4.38 % 149,564 7.18 88 0.3776 % 1,968.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.03 % 5.02 % 130,158 4.86 33 0.3191 % 2,757.1
FloatingReset 2.98 % 4.90 % 35,226 5.17 11 0.3225 % 2,094.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BIP.PR.B FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.78
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.17
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.15
Bid-YTW : 9.75 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.33
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.46
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 21.61
Evaluated at bid price : 21.89
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
BNS.PR.C FloatingReset 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
RY.PR.P Perpetual-Premium 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.09
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.33
Bid-YTW : 6.20 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 19.52
Evaluated at bid price : 19.52
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-08-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.31
Bid-YTW : -12.75 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.17
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.41
Bid-YTW : 7.65 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 11.25
Evaluated at bid price : 11.25
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.59
Bid-YTW : 8.11 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.32
Bid-YTW : 7.75 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 17.82
Evaluated at bid price : 17.82
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.90
Bid-YTW : 7.44 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 21.47
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 23.55
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 17.28
Evaluated at bid price : 17.28
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 12.05
Evaluated at bid price : 12.05
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 23.61
Evaluated at bid price : 24.06
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 2.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 23.64
Evaluated at bid price : 24.09
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BIP.PR.B FixedReset 94,530 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.78
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset 66,650 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 63,159 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 15.41
Evaluated at bid price : 15.41
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset 60,149 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.65
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset 50,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.43
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset 50,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
There were 32 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 19.59 – 20.25
Spot Rate : 0.6600
Average : 0.4958

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 19.59
Evaluated at bid price : 19.59
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %

RY.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 23.42 – 23.71
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1809

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.42
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %

TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 11.25 – 11.65
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2919

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 11.25
Evaluated at bid price : 11.25
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 13.60 – 13.93
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2460

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.60
Bid-YTW : 10.28 %

BNS.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 19.70 – 19.95
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1737

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 6.65 %

BIP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 19.00 – 19.30
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2253

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-11
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %

Market Action

July 8, 2016

Jobs, jobs, jobs!

America’s job market stirred to life in June as payroll growth accelerated by the most since October after a two-month lull, assuaging fears of broader cutbacks by companies.

Payrolls climbed by 287,000 last month, exceeding the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey, after a revised 11,000 gain in May, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 180,000 increase. The jobless rate rose to 4.9 percent as more people entered the labor force. Wages advanced less than projected.

Wages improved modestly, with average hourly earnings climbing 0.1 percent from a month earlier. The year-over-year increase was 2.6 percent, less than the 2.7 percent median forecast.

The average work week for all workers held at 34.4 hours in June.

In Canada, not so much:

Canada’s unemployment rate dipped slightly in June, despite a sharp drop in full-time jobs and other evidence of a weak month for hiring, as the number of people actively participating in the labour force declined.

Statistics Canada’s monthly Labour Force Survey showed that the unemployment rate fell to 6.8 per cent in June from 6.9 per cent in May, even though employment actually slipped a thin 700 jobs in the month – an essentially flat reading in a survey that has a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 29,500 each month. The lower unemployment rate was the result of a dip in the participation rate – the percentage of the working-age population that is either working or actively seeking work – to 65.5 per cent from 65.7 per cent, marking a 16-year low.

Bloomberg has a good piece on the power of Big Taxi in Vancouver:

On the face of it, Uber and Vancouver seem like a match made in ride-sharing heaven. Canada’s third-largest metropolis bills itself as Silicon Valley North—home to local unicorn Hootsuite and a thriving tech scene that employs thousands of young people. Public transportation is spotty, there are half as many taxis per 1,000 people as in Toronto, and the sprawling city of 2.5 million suffers from the nation’s worst traffic. In May, the website Vancity Buzz (now Daily Hive) reported that arriving cruise-ship passengers waited 90 minutes to catch a cab, forming a line 600 feet long. Vancouver seems purpose-built for ride-sharing.

Vancouver is something of an outlier in Canada. Uber has operated in Toronto since 2012, despite a regulatory debate raging over its legality. Earlier this year, Canada’s largest city passed new rules for ride-hailing apps, slightly raising the base fare for an Uber ride and letting traditional taxis charge surge pricing for rides booked through apps. Uber, which has more than 400,000 regular users in Toronto, welcomed the rules while taxi representatives grumbled. In Quebec, Uber has 450,000 users, mostly in Montreal. The province’s transportation minister has been critical of the company, but put off passing a bill last month that would have required drivers to obtain taxi licenses in favor of more consultation.

Critics say British Columbia’s government is bowing to Vancouver’s powerful taxi industry. Kulwant Sahota, president of Yellow Cab Co. and the Vancouver Taxi Association, says Uber will provide unfair competition for cabbies at a time when the cost of living has soared. It’s a message the industry has hammered hard. “The taxi lobby has been very successful,” says Gillen, who adds that industry representatives often attend fundraisers for the ruling Liberal party.

Oh, well, they can get left behind if they want to. It’s good news for Toronto!

The Canadian Securities Administrators recently issued a notice regarding T+2 settlement:

Staff of the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA Staff or we) are publishing this notice to increase awareness and summarize our views with respect to a Canadian industry move to shorten the standard settlement cycle for most trades in securities from three days after the date of trade (T+3) to two days after the date of trade (T+2).

In October 2014, most of the markets in Europe moved from a T+3 settlement cycle to T+2.{1} The securities industry in the United States, led by the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) and supported by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), has announced plans to shorten the settlement cycle to T+2 from the current T+3.{2} DTCC and SIFMA have established a broadly-based set of working groups with a mandate to report their findings in April, 2015. The plan is to recommend a T+2 implementation date at that time.

During the Fall of 2014, in anticipation of the U.S. move to a shorter settlement cycle, staff from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) conducted a sample of industry interviews to gain a sense of the readiness of the Canadian industry to make the move to T+2. All the industry participants interviewed expressed the view that the Canadian industry must make the move to T+2 at the same time as the U.S. markets. Failure to do so would be detrimental to the Canadian capital markets due to the interconnectedness of our markets (i.e., the large volumes and value of cross-border trades and the large number of inter-listed securities). At the same time, there would appear to be little, or no, benefit to be gained by moving prior to the U.S.

And today, SEC Commissioner Michael S. Piwowar issued a statement of his own:

Just over a year ago, Commissioner Stein and I issued a joint statement in support of a proposal to shorten the trade settlement cycle from three business days after a trade is executed (T+3) to two business days (T+2).[1] Our voices added to the chorus of endorsements for such a rulemaking,[2] which have since reached a crescendo.[3] The drumbeat for Commission action on this important topic is premised on the general expectation that shortening the settlement cycle will, among other benefits, enhance the efficiency of the securities markets, decrease risks in the financial system to retail investors and other market participants, and conform trade processing in the United States to other global markets.

Despite the widespread support for a proposal that would shorten the settlement cycle to T+2, the Commission has yet to act. Quite notably, our failure to promulgate such a proposal is in contravention of the agency rule list published in the most recent Regulatory Flexibility Agenda, which specified a June 2016 action date for this project.[4] Also, we have left market participants wondering whether the Commission is truly committed to shortening the settlement cycle.

The delay in issuing a T+2 proposal is wholly unacceptable. That the rulemaking has languished is not only frustrating to me personally, but is detrimental to efforts to improve investor protection. I continue to vigorously advocate for the Commission to act promptly on this rulemaking, and I encourage others to do the same.

And – totally off topic, but I can’t resist – an Ontario cabinet minister is spouting the Chinese government line:

Mr. Kenney’s recent comments arose after Mr. Chan defended China’s record on human rights in a Chinese-language column.

“Human rights should be viewed from the perspective of livelihood issues,” he told an unidentified journalist for a June 6 article that appeared in several Chinese-language publications. “The progress of human rights is complementary and linked together with the progress of people’s welfare.”

The comments were made in response to a diplomatic incident last month involving a news conference held by Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion and Wang Yi, his Chinese counterpart.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4199 % 1,641.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4199 % 2,997.7
Floater 5.00 % 4.81 % 92,323 15.88 4 -0.4199 % 1,727.6
OpRet 4.86 % 2.57 % 36,665 0.15 1 -0.1979 % 2,838.0
SplitShare 5.14 % 5.63 % 93,907 4.61 5 0.0242 % 3,348.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0242 % 2,612.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.52 % 0.31 % 84,937 0.09 12 -0.0294 % 2,660.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.31 % 5.32 % 100,720 14.97 26 0.2100 % 2,789.4
FixedReset 5.17 % 4.44 % 150,969 7.19 88 0.2136 % 1,961.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.04 % 5.04 % 127,944 4.87 33 0.3614 % 2,748.3
FloatingReset 2.99 % 4.88 % 33,193 5.17 11 0.6237 % 2,088.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.T FixedReset -3.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 19.41
Evaluated at bid price : 19.41
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 9.90
Evaluated at bid price : 9.90
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 9.95
Evaluated at bid price : 9.95
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 16.96
Evaluated at bid price : 16.96
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
BNS.PR.C FloatingReset -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.57
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 23.59
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.57
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.94
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 19.69
Evaluated at bid price : 19.69
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.41
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 12.81
Evaluated at bid price : 12.81
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 11.35
Evaluated at bid price : 11.35
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 24.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.33
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 9.79
Evaluated at bid price : 9.79
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.76
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %
BAM.PR.S FloatingReset 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 14.75
Evaluated at bid price : 14.75
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 15.31
Evaluated at bid price : 15.31
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 11.11
Evaluated at bid price : 11.11
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 18.20
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 2.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 17.27
Evaluated at bid price : 17.27
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 2.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 11.82
Evaluated at bid price : 11.82
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 17.45
Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.G FixedReset 201,127 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 132,585 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 7.66 %
NA.PR.A FixedReset 103,921 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 94,320 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.20
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 77,657 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 40,135 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 9.26 %
There were 31 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.30 – 25.68
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2259

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-08-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : -12.76 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 20.25 – 20.68
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2815

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 20.25
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.05 – 25.49
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3004

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %

RY.PR.P Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.80 – 26.13
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.1907

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %

W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.92 – 24.40
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3474

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 23.65
Evaluated at bid price : 23.92
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.43 – 21.87
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3080

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-08
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.43
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %

Issue Comments

FCS.PR.C: Partial Redemption

Faircourt Asset Management Inc. has announced (although not yet on their website):

that $1,000,000.00 in aggregate principal amount of the Trust’s 6.00% outstanding Preferred Securities (the “Preferred Securities”) will be redeemed on July 27, 2016 (the “Redemption Payment Date”). The record date of the Preferred Securities partial redemption is July 25, 2016.

Proceeds from the Preferred Securities redemption will amount to $10.0450 for each $10.00 principal amount of Securities, being equal to the aggregate of (i) $10.00 (the “Redemption Price”), and (ii) all accrued and unpaid interest hereon to but excluding the Redemption Payment Date (collectively, the “Total Redemption Price”).

The interest upon the principal amount of Preferred Securities called for redemption shall cease to be payable from and after the Redemption Date, unless payment of the Total Redemption Price shall not be made on presentation for surrender of such Securities on or after the Redemption Date or prior to the setting aside of the Total Redemption Price pursuant to the Indenture.

Securities will be redeemed pro rata from each beneficial holder of Securities pursuant to the procedures of CDS Clearing and Depository Services Inc. Beneficial holders of Preferred Securities should contact their broker with any questions regarding the redemption.

FCS.PR.C is a SplitShare paying 6% p.a. (interest) on a par value of $10, maturing 2019-6-30, that commenced trading 2014-12-30. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Market Action

July 7, 2016

The Great British Property Fund Debacle keeps getting worse:

The uncertainty sweeping across Britain’s commercial property market in the wake of Brexit has affected more funds, including a few owned by Canadian firms.

Bank of Montreal’s Global Asset Management adjusted its U.K. property fund because of an increased number of redemption requests after the June 24 referendum vote in Britain to leave the European Union.

On July 7, BMO’s asset management division announced that its F&C UK Property Fund had cut the price of its units 5 per cent. It said the change was a result of a move to “fair value pricing” that accounted for the uncertainty and downward pressure surrounding commercial real estate property values in Britain.

“The level of redemption requests we have recently received and market conditions suggest that investors may place further redemptions, leading to downward pressure on realizable property values,” the company stated on its website page for the fund, which invests directly in U.K. commercial real estate.

BMO GAM said it has also increased the frequency of valuations for the buildings owned in the fund from a monthly to a weekly basis as a result of the “significant market volatility” following the Brexit vote, requiring closer monitoring as a result.

Last month, BMO GAM’s fact sheet on F&C UK Property said the fund had a value of £305-million ($512.2-million) and a unit price of £110.80. On Thursday, the unit price had fallen to £98.43, a drop of £12.37 or 11.16 per cent.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4010 % 1,647.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4010 % 3,010.3
Floater 4.98 % 4.73 % 90,797 16.01 4 -0.4010 % 1,734.9
OpRet 4.85 % 1.19 % 36,850 0.15 1 0.0792 % 2,843.6
SplitShare 5.14 % 5.67 % 93,868 4.61 5 -0.0727 % 3,347.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0727 % 2,612.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.52 % -8.88 % 85,372 0.09 12 0.2313 % 2,661.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.32 % 5.30 % 100,346 14.98 26 0.5095 % 2,783.6
FixedReset 5.19 % 4.49 % 149,863 7.09 88 0.2014 % 1,957.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 5.16 % 126,938 4.88 33 0.3000 % 2,738.4
FloatingReset 3.02 % 5.04 % 33,263 5.17 11 -0.0963 % 2,075.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -2.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 17.42
Evaluated at bid price : 17.42
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 9.64
Evaluated at bid price : 9.64
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 10.11
Evaluated at bid price : 10.11
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 17.05
Evaluated at bid price : 17.05
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 19.03
Evaluated at bid price : 19.03
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.68
Bid-YTW : 2.28 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 17.82
Evaluated at bid price : 17.82
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.21
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 21.39
Evaluated at bid price : 21.69
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.20
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.30
Bid-YTW : 8.37 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.20
Bid-YTW : 8.46 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-08-06
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.16
Bid-YTW : -3.81 %
GWO.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-08-06
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.03
Bid-YTW : -37.80 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.62
Bid-YTW : 8.81 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.14
Bid-YTW : 7.91 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.11
Bid-YTW : 7.87 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-08-06
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.20
Bid-YTW : -13.68 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.G FixedReset 750,138 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
NA.PR.A FixedReset 224,181 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.93
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset 179,056 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.60
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
MFC.PR.O FixedReset 178,134 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.50
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 123,068 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.18
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 92,919 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.S FloatingReset Quote: 14.50 – 15.50
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.8114

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.59 – 24.00
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2536

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 23.31
Evaluated at bid price : 23.59
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %

BIP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 25.35 – 25.75
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2782

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 17.42 – 17.85
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3156

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 17.42
Evaluated at bid price : 17.42
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 13.02 – 13.37
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2541

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 13.02
Evaluated at bid price : 13.02
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 17.05 – 17.43
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2855

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-07-07
Maturity Price : 17.05
Evaluated at bid price : 17.05
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %

Issue Comments

HSB: S&P States "Outlook Negative"

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •In our view, the “leave” result in the U.K.’s June 2016 referendum on EU membership (“Brexit”) has increased the risks of adverse economic developments in the U.K. As a result, we now see a negative trend for U.K. banking industry economic risk.
  • •We also believe that the U.K. economy has now entered into a correction phase, driven by our revised expectation that imbalances will worsen as credit growth slows and real house prices contract. However, we consider that banks’ underwriting standards, low interest rates, and low unemployment should mitigate the extent of losses in the banking sector.
  • •We are therefore revising to negative from stable our outlook on the majority of U.K. domestic banks, as described below, while affirming their ratings.


In our opinion, the outcome of the Brexit vote is a seminal event, and will lead to a less predictable, stable, and effective economic policy framework in the U.K. The Brexit result could lead to a deterioration of the U.K.’s economic performance, including its large financial services sector, which is a major contributor to employment and public receipts. As such, we recognize that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the near term. In particular, it is not clear if the U.K. will retain access to the EU single market–the destination of 44% of its exports–on existing terms. Future arrangements regarding the export of services, including by the U.K.’s important financial services industry, are equally uncertain, in our view.

HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

We revised the outlook on group NOHC HSBC Holdings PLC, and certain European and North American subsidiaries, to negative from stable. These subsidiaries include HSBC Bank PLC, HSBC France, HSBC USA Inc., HSBC Bank USA N.A., and HSBC Bank Canada (see Ratings List for full details). The stable outlook on The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Ltd. (HBAP) and the outlooks on its subsidiaries across Asia-Pacific remain unchanged. This is because potential extraordinary support from the Hong Kong government would maintain the long-term rating on HBAP at ‘AA-‘ if we were to downgrade HSBC Holdings by one
notch.

The negative outlook reflects potential pressures over our two-year rating horizon arising from the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU and China’s economic slowdown. Although HSBC’s highly diversified business profile and strengthening capitalization are significant mitigants, we nevertheless identify risks to asset quality and revenues that may challenge the current ratings. In particular, we expect uncertainty over whether the U.K.’s future relationship with the EU will hinder the U.K. economy. China’s economic slowdown appears to have had little impact to date on HSBC’s risk profile, but we remain alert to signs of credit deterioration in its material exposure across the Asia-Pacific region. Increased market uncertainty could also prevent HSBC from achieving its strategic priorities. The negative outlook also takes account of other factors–the prolonged period of low global interest rates, HSBC’s ongoing U.S. deferred prosecution agreement, and its outstanding litigation cases.

Affected issues are HSB.PR.C and HSB.PR.D , both of which are DeemedRetractibles trading slightly below par.