PrefBlog

I was stunned to see the following chart in the Kansas City Fed paper by Fumiko Hayashi and Terri Bradford titled Mobile Payments: Merchants’ Perspectives:

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Geez, I pay cash nearly every time! Does this make me an old Fudd? Mind you, though, the chart needs a footnote: if they are standing directly in front of me, then all three electronic methods will be tried several times each, after which the purchaser will pay the bill in nickels.

Yesterday I took a shot at the Fair Trade do-gooders; today it’s the environmentalists’ turn:

London has a dirty secret.

Levels of the harmful air pollutant nitrogen dioxide at a city-center monitoring station are the highest in Europe. Concentrations are greater even than in Beijing, where expatriates have dubbed the city’s smog the “airpocalypse.”

It’s the law of unintended consequences at work. European Union efforts to fight climate change favored diesel fuel over gasoline because it emits less carbon dioxide, or CO2. However, diesel’s contaminants have swamped benefits from measures that include a toll drivers pay to enter central London, a thriving bike-hire program and growing public-transport network.
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Europe-wide policy triggered the problem. The “dieselisation” of London’s cars began with an agreement between car manufacturers and the EU in 1998 that aimed to lower the average CO2 emissions of new vehicles. Because of diesel’s greater fuel economy, it increased in favor.

The European Commission, the EU regulatory arm, “is and always has been technologically neutral,” said Joe Hennon, a spokesman. “It does not favor diesel over petrol-powered cars. How to achieve CO2 reductions is up to member states.”

EU rules enforced since 2000 allowed diesel cars to spew more than three times the amount of oxides of nitrogen including NO2 as those using gasoline. New rules that took effect in September narrow that gap.

In yet another rant with no relationship at all to Canadian preferred shares (what?) how about this explanation of soaring tuition costs … not to mention a little flexing of new-found administrative muscle:

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In interest-rate related news (for a change!) the Treasury market was on fire today:

The U.S. sale of $35 billion of five-year notes drew the lowest yield in six months as a European bond rally bolstered the attractiveness of U.S. government securities.

The notes yielded 1.513 percent at auction yesterday, the least since November. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of debt offered, was 2.73, versus an average of 2.65 at the past 10 sales. Treasuries rose earlier along with government securities across Europe as an unexpected jump in German unemployment fueled bets the European Central Bank will introduce further stimulus next week.

“It was a strong auction, given the strength that we saw coming in,” said Sean Murphy, a trader in New York at Societe Generale SA, one of 22 primary dealers obliged to bid at U.S. debt auctions. “In the global safe-bond world, the U.S. looks relatively cheap. And we are seeing that play out in the strength of Treasuries.”

The yield on the current five-year note fell five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 1.48 percent at 5 p.m. yesterday in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell seven basis points to 2.44 percent.
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Yields on European sovereign debt fell to record lows as the number of people out of work in Germany rose 23,937 to 2.91 million in May, the Federal Labor Agency said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a decline of 15,000.

ECB President Mario Draghi said in Portugal this week policy makers need to be “particularly watchful” of low inflation. Consumer-price increases in the euro region have been less than half the central bank’s goal of just under 2 percent since October. The ECB meets June 5.

Laurence D. Fink of Blackrock is attempting to distract regulators with other issues:

BlackRock Inc. (BLK)’s Laurence D. Fink, who oversees the world’s biggest exchange-traded fund lineup, said leveraged ETFs are a structural problem and have the potential to “blow up” the industry.

“BlackRock would never do a leveraged ETF,” Fink said in a question-and-answer session with Deutsche Bank AG co-chairman Anshu Jain today in New York. Fink said he doesn’t understand why the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission allows them to operate.
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Fink said today that products with embedded leverage should be supervised. Regulators should focus their efforts on products instead of the amount of assets managed when seeking to reduce risk in the financial system, he said. BlackRock is among large money managers that has been lobbying regulators and lawmakers to avoid being labeled a systemically important financial institution, or SIFI.

… and Scotia was unable to find a buyer for CI Financial:

Bank of Nova Scotia has settled on a plan to unload the majority of its stake in asset manager CI Financial Inc., opting to sell shares directly to public investors by way of a bought deal.

Scotiabank is selling 72 million shares at $31.60 each, amounting $2.3-billion, making it one of the largest public offerings in Canada.

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 5bp, FixedResets losing 38bp and DeemedRetractibles down 16bp. The relatively lengthy Performance Highlights table is dominated by losers. Volume was high.

Update: PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.28%, equivalent to 6.86% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield about 4.35%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the Seniority Spread) is now about 250bp, a widening from the 240bp reported May 15.

Well, the huge sums of government money spent persecuting Fabulous Fab have finally had an effect:

Fabrice Tourre, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) vice president found liable for his part in selling a pre-crisis mortgage security that lost value, said he won’t file an appeal in the civil case.

“While my lawyers have advised me there are strong grounds to appeal, I prefer to move forward with my education and close this difficult chapter of my life,” Tourre said in a statement today. “I look forward to finishing my Ph.D. in economics and to making meaningful contributions to my field.”

Tourre, 35, was found liable Aug. 1 after a jury trial at which the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission claimed he intentionally misled investors in a subprime-mortgage vehicle called Abacus 2007-AC1. In March, he was ordered to pay more than $825,000 in penalties.

The lawsuit was one of the government’s most prominent efforts to fix responsibility for the housing market crash, which helped precipitate the worst economic downturn since the 1930s.

It looks like all the easy shale oil money has been made:

The U.S. shale patch is facing a shakeout as drillers struggle to keep pace with the relentless spending needed to get oil and gas out of the ground.

Shale debt has almost doubled over the last four years while revenue has gained just 5.6 percent, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of 61 shale drillers. A dozen of those wildcatters are spending at least 10 percent of their sales on interest compared with Exxon Mobil Corp.’s 0.1 percent.
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Drillers are caught in a bind. They must keep borrowing to pay for exploration needed to offset the steep production declines typical of shale wells. At the same time, investors have been pushing companies to cut back. Spending tumbled at 26 of the 61 firms examined. For companies that can’t afford to keep drilling, less oil coming out means less money coming in, accelerating the financial tailspin.

Good news, everybody! Not only is Toronto the largest Fair Trade city in North America, but Ethiopian coffee is Canada’s favourite FairTrade product! There’s only one teensy, tiny little problem:

The third main set of FTEPR findings concerns Fairtrade specifically. This research was unable to find any evidence that Fairtrade has made a positive difference to the wages and working conditions of those employed in the production of the commodities produced for Fairtrade certified export in the areas where the research has been conducted. This is the case for ‘smallholder’ crops like coffee – where Fairtrade standards have been based on the erroneous assumption that the vast majority of production is based on family labour – and for ‘hired labour organization’ commodities like the cut flowers produced in factory-style greenhouse conditions in Ethiopia.8 In some cases, indeed, the data suggest that those employed in areas where there are Fairtrade producer organisations are significantly worse paid, and treated, than those employed for wages in the production of the same commodities in areas without any Fairtrade certified institutions (including in areas characterised by smallholder production). At the very least, this research suggests that Fairtrade organizations need to pay far more attention to the conditions of those extremely poor rural people – especially women and girls – employed in the production of commodities labelled and sold to ‘ethical consumers’ who expect their purchases to improve the lives of the poor.

Section 3 discusses other evidence too, drawing on both quantitative and qualitative findings. The FTEPR research design did not set out to capture comprehensive data on child labour. However, in the quantitative survey results and especially in the qualitative life’s work interviews, the fact of widespread wage labour by children and teenagers (specifically, children working for wages and during school time) was inescapable.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 5bp, FixedResets down 33bp and DeemedRetractibles off 8bp. The lengthy Performance Highlights table is dominated by FixedReset losers (although Floaters got hit hard too), particularly BAM issues – presumably due to the new issue announcement. Volume was average.

There’s always a lot of political complaining about corporate short-term thinking, with the equity markets forcing managers to focus on the next quarter’s profit rather than investing for the long term. I’m never too sure about how seriously to take this. First, there seems to be quite a lot of technological advance anyway and second, long-range planning by it’s nature can often go astray and blow up the companies just as well as anything else. One way or another, there’s an interesting insight into the role of indexers:

Most of the more than $4-trillion (U.S.) that BlackRock oversees on behalf of clients is in index funds that passively track market benchmarks. Because it can’t sell individual stocks in index funds, BlackRock is, by necessity, in it for the long haul.

So instead of threatening, [Blackrock Chairman and CEO] Mr. [Larry] Fink cajoles. He writes letters. Very, very well-read letters. His latest went to the heads of all the biggest companies in the United States and Europe, hundreds of them, urging CEOs to think long term.

“As the largest index player in the world, we have to own companies, even if we hate ‘em,” Mr. Fink said in an interview on a recent visit to Toronto. “The most powerful component of our ownership is our vote, and we have to vote for what we think is in the best interests for the long term. Whether we like you or not, we are going to be an investor for the long term. We want leadership to focus on long-term strategies.”

In many ways, BlackRock’s fortunes are tied to long-run economic growth. That’s what drives stock indexes higher. It’s a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats game.

The Lapdog’s learning that sucking political arse is a risky career choice … the demands keep increasing and the promises keep accumulating:

Less than a year into his new job, Mr. Carney is getting decidedly mixed reviews from a much tougher crowd of critics. He’s already had one big flub, after he was forced to revise his stated plan to hold interest rates down until the unemployment rate fell below 7 per cent.

The jobless target was achieved two years ahead of Mr. Carney’s forecast, with unemployment hitting a five-year low of 6.8 per cent in March, and the latest jobs reports have been among the strongest in years. Still, Mr. Carney insists he won’t raise interest rates any time soon, although financial types in the City no longer find his “forward guidance” of much use. They have taken to calling it “fuzzy guidance.”

Some even label Mr. Carney a monetary “dove” who’s tempting fate. For the first time on his watch, members of the central bank’s monetary policy committee disagree over the course of action to take. The governor’s insistence that there is still too much slack in the economy to raise rates is challenged from within. His soon-to-leave deputy recently took a jab: “There is a real danger of spurious precision and the pretense of knowledge in this area.”

What’s the peak of the next interest rate cycle? Place yer bets, gents, place yer bets:

From bond yields to futures and swaps, traders see little chance the economy will strengthen enough over the course of its expansion to compel the Fed to lift its overnight rate beyond about 3.3 percent. That’s less than the historical average of 4.25 percent that New York Fed President William Dudley said would be consistent with the central bank’s current target for inflation and compares with its long-term estimate of 4 percent.

The divergence reflects deepening concern among bond investors that tepid wage growth and a lack of inflation will persist for years to come, and hold back growth as the Fed moves to end its unprecedented monetary stimulus. Lower peak rates will also reduce the likelihood of any selloff in longer-term Treasuries, which have rewarded holders this year with the biggest returns in two decades.

It was a day of modest movement for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts and DeemedRetractibles both gaining 2bp, while FixedResets were off 5bp. Volatility was low. Volume was below average.