John Hemption wrote a piece on Bronte Capital titled Bank Solvency and the Geithner Plan:
The spread between the origination value of a loan and its secondary value is huge. It simply makes no sense to originate new loans when you can buy old loans so cheap. Because it makes no sense to originate loans banks will not do it unless they are driven by an “institutional imperative” (they don’t know what else to do) or they are forced to by regulators or they are trying to prove their solvency by using capital (something I have accused Barclays of).
James Hamilton of Econbrowser picks up the thread in a post titled Prospects for the US Banking System but he is handicapped by the notion that markets are efficient and rational:
As I understand it, Hempton is claiming that there is a probability distribution for what the true value of the assets held to maturity is going to be– might be higher than 75 cents, might be lower than 75 cents, but with expected value of 75 cents. There’s no question that risk premia at the moment are very high, but a figure of a 15% expected return seems hard to defend. The highest differential we’ve seen between Baa-rated and Aaa-rated bonds over the last century was 550 basis points in 1932. The spread fell from 340 basis points in December 2008 to 310 this January.
…
If purchasing bank assets today at 50 cents on the dollar doesn’t offer an expected return as high as 15%, then it’s hard to claim that the expected value of the assets held to maturity is as high as 75 cents. Either 50 cents is too low a valuation, or 75 cents is too high an expectation.Although I’m not sure which numbers to use, this seems like exactly the right way to frame the problem. Figure out what are the possible parameters for the capital loss that is to be allocated among the various parties– specifically, a loss that must be borne by some combination of stockholders, creditors, managers, employees, and the taxpayers– and try to reconcile those numbers with the current liquidation value of the banks.
Assiduous Readers will remember the Bank of England April ’08 Financial Stability Report, which opined that banks were, in fact, over-reserved against losses to maturity. That was, of course, nearly a year ago, back in the good old days before Lehman blew up and took the economy with it. I can only hope that some similarly authoritative work will become public soon.
Split-shares got creamed again … much more of this and retraction will become attractive again! It wasn’t just that bids disappeared, either … there were willing sellers at low prices.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 5.25 % | 3.68 % | 23,617 | 17.99 | 2 | -0.0255 % | 860.4 |
| FixedFloater | 7.31 % | 6.83 % | 73,542 | 14.01 | 7 | -1.1406 % | 1,373.5 |
| Floater | 5.08 % | 4.29 % | 28,787 | 16.85 | 4 | 0.4864 % | 1,033.5 |
| OpRet | 5.23 % | 4.87 % | 141,082 | 3.98 | 15 | 0.2227 % | 2,056.3 |
| SplitShare | 6.72 % | 11.98 % | 67,429 | 3.96 | 15 | -2.7117 % | 1,665.0 |
| Interest-Bearing | 7.12 % | 9.26 % | 33,029 | 0.82 | 2 | -0.5202 % | 1,987.4 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0881 % | 1,548.6 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 6.95 % | 7.11 % | 181,051 | 12.43 | 71 | 0.0881 % | 1,426.2 |
| FixedReset | 6.05 % | 5.73 % | 584,611 | 13.93 | 27 | 0.2203 % | 1,818.3 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| FBS.PR.B | SplitShare | -9.08 % | Yes, Virginia, there was volume there. Closed at 6.41-59, 5×10, after trading 26,952 shares in a range of 6.40-10. Asset coverage of 1.0+:1 as of February 12 according to TD Securities. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2011-12-15 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 6.41 Bid-YTW : 23.44 % |
| LBS.PR.A | SplitShare | -8.51 % | Volume here, too. Traded 23,150 shares in a range of 7.00-8.00 before closing at 7.10-80, 24×77. Asset coverage of 1.3-:1 as of February 12 according to Brompton. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2013-11-29 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 7.10 Bid-YTW : 14.03 % |
| FTN.PR.A | SplitShare | -6.53 % | Volume here too! Traded 9,800 shares in a range of 7.11-50 before closing at 7.01-27, 10×2. Asset coverage of 1.2-:1 as of February 13 according to the company. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2015-12-01 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 7.01 Bid-YTW : 11.98 % |
| DF.PR.A | SplitShare | -4.44 % | Asset coverage of 1.3+:1 as of February 13 according to the company. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2014-12-01 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 8.18 Bid-YTW : 9.56 % |
| BCE.PR.Z | FixedFloater | -4.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.05 Bid-YTW : 7.06 % |
| CIU.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | -3.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 16.23 Evaluated at bid price : 16.23 Bid-YTW : 7.13 % |
| FFN.PR.A | SplitShare | -3.36 % | Asset coverage of 1.0+:1 as of February 13 according to the company. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2014-12-01 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 6.33 Bid-YTW : 15.23 % |
| LFE.PR.A | SplitShare | -2.85 % | Asset coverage of 1.2+:1 as of February 13 according to the company. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2012-12-01 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 7.84 Bid-YTW : 12.83 % |
| WFS.PR.A | SplitShare | -2.82 % | Asset coverage of 1.1+:1 as of February 12 according to Mulvihill. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2011-06-30 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 7.58 Bid-YTW : 18.97 % |
| BCE.PR.R | FixedFloater | -2.73 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.32 Bid-YTW : 6.82 % |
| NA.PR.N | FixedReset | -2.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 21.95 Evaluated at bid price : 22.00 Bid-YTW : 4.93 % |
| SBC.PR.A | SplitShare | -2.42 % | Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of February 12 according to Brompton. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2012-11-30 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 7.66 Bid-YTW : 13.65 % |
| DFN.PR.A | SplitShare | -2.18 % | Asset coverage of 1.6-:1 as of February 13 according to the company. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2014-12-01 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 8.51 Bid-YTW : 8.72 % |
| PWF.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | -2.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 19.42 Evaluated at bid price : 19.42 Bid-YTW : 7.17 % |
| TD.PR.P | Perpetual-Discount | -1.93 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 19.81 Evaluated at bid price : 19.81 Bid-YTW : 6.71 % |
| RY.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | -1.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 17.31 Evaluated at bid price : 17.31 Bid-YTW : 6.55 % |
| CM.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | -1.56 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 16.39 Evaluated at bid price : 16.39 Bid-YTW : 7.43 % |
| PPL.PR.A | SplitShare | -1.23 % | Asset coverage of 1.3+:1 as of February 13 according to the company. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2012-12-01 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 8.05 Bid-YTW : 11.62 % |
| TD.PR.N | OpRet | -1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Soft Maturity Maturity Date : 2014-01-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.52 Bid-YTW : 4.21 % |
| FIG.PR.A | Interest-Bearing | -1.20 % | Asset coverage of 1.0+:1 as of February 10, based on Capital units at $0.72 and 0.53 Capital Units per preferred. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2014-12-31 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 7.41 Bid-YTW : 13.02 % |
| TCA.PR.Y | Perpetual-Discount | -1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 44.69 Evaluated at bid price : 46.26 Bid-YTW : 6.08 % |
| BAM.PR.H | OpRet | 1.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Soft Maturity Maturity Date : 2012-03-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.50 Bid-YTW : 8.33 % |
| BNS.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | 1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 18.34 Evaluated at bid price : 18.34 Bid-YTW : 6.63 % |
| NA.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | 1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 20.91 Evaluated at bid price : 20.91 Bid-YTW : 7.06 % |
| TD.PR.C | FixedReset | 1.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 24.20 Evaluated at bid price : 24.25 Bid-YTW : 5.12 % |
| BNS.PR.R | FixedReset | 1.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 21.76 Evaluated at bid price : 21.80 Bid-YTW : 4.77 % |
| BNS.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | 1.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 20.01 Evaluated at bid price : 20.01 Bid-YTW : 6.64 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Perpetual-Discount | 1.34 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 15.15 Evaluated at bid price : 15.15 Bid-YTW : 7.50 % |
| TD.PR.A | FixedReset | 1.35 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 22.56 Evaluated at bid price : 22.60 Bid-YTW : 4.66 % |
| BNS.PR.L | Perpetual-Discount | 1.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 17.75 Evaluated at bid price : 17.75 Bid-YTW : 6.42 % |
| BNS.PR.M | Perpetual-Discount | 1.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 17.74 Evaluated at bid price : 17.74 Bid-YTW : 6.42 % |
| RY.PR.L | FixedReset | 1.47 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 24.06 Evaluated at bid price : 24.10 Bid-YTW : 5.08 % |
| ENB.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | 1.56 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 23.82 Evaluated at bid price : 24.07 Bid-YTW : 5.73 % |
| TRI.PR.B | Floater | 1.56 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 13.00 Evaluated at bid price : 13.00 Bid-YTW : 4.08 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 1.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 15.02 Evaluated at bid price : 15.02 Bid-YTW : 7.56 % |
| GWO.PR.I | Perpetual-Discount | 1.79 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 15.32 Evaluated at bid price : 15.32 Bid-YTW : 7.50 % |
| CM.PR.K | FixedReset | 2.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 22.25 Evaluated at bid price : 23.00 Bid-YTW : 4.87 % |
| SLF.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | 2.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 16.02 Evaluated at bid price : 16.02 Bid-YTW : 7.57 % |
| IAG.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | 2.43 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 16.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.00 Bid-YTW : 7.34 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| TD.PR.G | FixedReset | 76,155 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-05-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.31 Bid-YTW : 6.10 % |
| BNS.PR.X | FixedReset | 66,176 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-05-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.30 Bid-YTW : 6.11 % |
| RY.PR.R | FixedReset | 52,186 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-03-26 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.41 Bid-YTW : 6.00 % |
| RY.PR.P | FixedReset | 47,648 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2019-03-26 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.26 Bid-YTW : 6.18 % |
| BNS.PR.L | Perpetual-Discount | 46,670 | Nesbitt bought 16,000 from Scotia at 17.75 and 21,800 from National at 17.99. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2039-02-19 Maturity Price : 17.75 Evaluated at bid price : 17.75 Bid-YTW : 6.42 % |
| CM.PR.L | FixedReset | 43,543 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-05-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.38 Bid-YTW : 6.27 % |
| There were 30 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||