Issue Comments

LFE.PR.A Reorganization Details Announced

Canadian Life Companies Split Corp. has announced the details of its reorganization, as promised when the proposal was approved and in accordance with announced terms.

The critical part of today’s announcement is:

Shareholders who do not wish to remain invested in the Company under its reorganized share structure will have until the close of business on May 17, 2012 to provide the Company with notice through their CDS participant that they wish to have their Preferred Shares or Class A Shares redeemed pursuant to the 2012 Special Retraction Right, and to surrender their Shares for retraction. On such a special retraction, each holder of a Preferred Share will receive the lesser of (i) $10.00 and (ii) the net asset value per Unit calculated on May 31, 2012; while holder of a Class A Share will receive the net asset value per Unit calculated on May 31, 2012, less $10.00. Shareholders interested in exercising such retraction right should contact the CDS Participant through which they hold the Shares for further information and instructions as to how to exercise this right. Shareholders should note that the requirements of any particular CDS Participant may vary, and that Shareholders may need to inform their CDS Participant of any intention to exercise this retraction right in advance of the May 17 deadline. Payment for the Class A Shares or Preferred Shares so tendered for retraction pursuant to the 2012 Special Retraction Right will be made no later than June 19, 2012.

Each broker will have a different deadline for notification of desired exercise of the Special Retraction Right, so make sure you know the date applicable to you! It should also be noted that there will be no maturity or retraction available on the previously scheduled wind-up date of 2012-12-1. That’s been wiped out.

The question is whether or not to retract. The NAV as of 2012-4-13 is $12.64. I believe that due to the increased coupon paid on the shares (it will be 6.25%) and the presence of warrants, it is now more appropriate to consider the preferred shares to be common shares in a closed-end fund trading at a discount rather than “preferred” in the normal sense.

Credit Quality Analysis
LFE.PR.A
Template Start 2002-12-8
End 2010-12-8
Symbol xfn.to
Expected
Return
7.00%
Underlying
Dividend
Yield
4.50%
Issue
Data
Initial NAV
2012-4-13
12.64
Pfd
Redemption
Value
10.00
Pfd
Coupon
0.625
MER 1.04%
(10bp reduction)
Cap Unit Div
Above Test
1.20
Cap Unit Div
Below Test
0.00
NAV Test 15.00
Whole Unit Par Value 25.00
Months to Redemption 80
 
Analysis Probability of Default 28.60%
Loss Given Default 22.42%
Expected Loss 6.40%
 
Yields
Calculation
(from 4/13)
Current Price 10.00
Maturity Date 2018-12-1
Yield to Maturity 6.29%
Expected Price 9.36
Yield to Expectations 5.48%

It will be noted that the yield calculations presented above have been performed from April 13 and hence reflect receipt of the April monthly dividend. Valuation of the options is complex; if the preferreds are considered best analyzed as common shares in a discounted closed-end-fund, there must be some allowance made for the fact that extant capital unitholders will receive some fraction (possibly 100%; possibly as little as 33%) of any final NAV in excess of $10.00.

It will also be noted that there will be many who consider the expected total return of the underlying portfolio, estimated above as 7%, to be overly generous, considering all the current, expected and potential capital rule changes that will be imposed on the insurance industry over the next six years. Others will look at the fat coupon on the new preferreds and reason that this will, essentially, allow them to suck out the excess NAV over the next six years even if the industry doesn’t do very much (it will be noted that in the analytics above, the 50-percentile for the expected final NAV is 12.41 – thus, even given a 7% expected total return of the underlying portfolio, the extant capital unitholders should not expect to make a dime until maturity – no dividends, no capital gain!).

So, some will be attracted to this as an equity investment. But I don’t think these things should be considered “preferred shares” any more. For those who wish to hold preferred shares and accrue the benefits of holding the asset class, I recommend that the Special Retraction Right be exercised or that the shares be sold on the market if they should trade at a premium.

Market Action

April 24, 2012

Fascinating developments in High Frequency Trading technology:

Currently, data take 64 milliseconds (give or take a few fractions of an eye blink) to travel round-trip between New York and London along a cable built in 1998 called the AC-1.

According to its New Jersey-based operator, Hibernia Atlantic, the $300 million Project Express will be 5.2 milliseconds faster than the AC-1, with an execution time of 59.6 milliseconds. That will make Project Express the world’s fastest transatlantic cable when it opens in 2013 and the first to achieve round-trip trading speeds of less than 60 milliseconds. Unless someone beats them to it.

As of this morning, it appears someone will. A small company called Perseus Telecom, in partnership with a subsidiary of India’s big telecom company, Reliance Communications, has announced the launch of QuanTA, a fiber-optic cable stretching from Long Island to the U.K. with an expected round-trip execution time of less than 60 milliseconds by the end of 2012.

This must be for arbitrage between Europe & New York – if it was just New York, it would be easier to set up the infrastructure here, with colocation on the Exchange floor.

The Europeans are getting a little testy:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said balanced budgets are the best answer to the debt crisis, rebuffing French Socialist presidential candidate Francois Hollande’s campaign pledge to reverse Europe’s austerity drive.

Merkel, who faces two German state elections in May and a national election in the fall of 2013, joined with Sarkozy to craft the euro area’s crisis response over the past year and backed him for re-election. She insisted on the need for austerity today, saying Europe’s “credibility” depends on reducing deficits and debt.

“We’re not saying that saving solves all problems,” she told a conference in Berlin. Still, “you can’t spend more than you take in. You can’t live your whole life this way. Everybody knows this.”

It has become an article of faith that you shouldn’t trust the mainstream Credit Rating Agencies because – gasp! – they’re paid by the issuers. You should choose a investor-pay agency:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission accused Egan-Jones Ratings Co. and founder Sean Egan of making misrepresentations about the firm’s experience rating asset-backed and government securities in a 2008 application to become a nationally recognized statistical ratings organization.

Egan-Jones falsely claimed in the application that it had about 150 outstanding ABS issuer ratings and 50 government ratings, the SEC said today in an administrative proceeding filed in Washington. At the time of the July 2008 application, the firm hadn’t issued any such ratings and therefore didn’t meet requirements for registration as an NRSRO, the SEC said.

Egan-Jones is one of nine firms registered with the SEC as an NRSRO, which means companies can use their credit ratings to meet regulatory requirements. Egan-Jones is paid by investors.

There’s some more cheerful European bank news:

European lenders, more reliant than ever on emergency aid after borrowing $1.3 trillion from their central bank, may need additional cash infusions until policy makers stem the crisis engulfing Spain and Italy.

After more than 30 bond sales in the first quarter, no bank has sold unsecured debt this month, and the cost of insuring against default has soared to levels last seen in January. Financial stocks, which rallied 20 percent following the European Central Bank’s December decision to provide unlimited three-year loans, are now 2 percent lower since then.

Investors are balking after some lenders used the ECB cash to boost holdings of sovereign debt and governments struggled to rein in deficits. Because banks post collateral in exchange for the ECB loans, the amount unsecured bondholders would get back in a default has shrunk. That has raised funding costs for what Morgan Stanley estimates is about 700 billion euros ($924 billion) of debt lenders must refinance by the end of 2013.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums down 6bp, FixedResets up 6bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 9bp. The Performance Highlights table is comprised entirely of BAM winners, but I don’t think much can be read into that: the PerpetualDiscounts are just bouncing back from a bit of weakness, and the BAM Floaters are the only Floaters in the index. Volume was below average.

Update, 2012-4-25: This post originally reported after-tax yields. The following is pre-tax:

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 3.2477 % 2,506.6
FixedFloater 4.42 % 3.78 % 32,371 17.80 1 0.1399 % 3,564.5
Floater 2.88 % 2.89 % 44,101 20.00 3 3.2477 % 2,706.4
OpRet 4.76 % 2.73 % 52,856 1.15 5 -0.1225 % 2,504.0
SplitShare 5.25 % 0.32 % 74,454 0.64 4 0.2382 % 2,693.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1225 % 2,289.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.47 % 1.73 % 80,983 0.11 23 -0.0603 % 2,222.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.17 % 5.23 % 154,665 15.05 10 0.3986 % 2,411.1
FixedReset 5.02 % 3.02 % 191,000 2.19 67 0.0585 % 2,398.7
Deemed-Retractible 4.97 % 3.77 % 196,015 1.99 46 0.0926 % 2,309.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-24
Maturity Price : 22.44
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-24
Maturity Price : 22.42
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-24
Maturity Price : 17.92
Evaluated at bid price : 17.92
Bid-YTW : 2.95 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 3.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-24
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 2.85 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 4.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-24
Maturity Price : 18.26
Evaluated at bid price : 18.26
Bid-YTW : 2.89 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 80,843 Desjardins crossed 15,000 at 25.75; RBC crossed blocks of 25,000 and 11,500, both at 25.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.76
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 69,501 RBC crossed 65,000 at 22.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.71
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 66,800 Nesbitt crossed 54,500 at 25.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-08-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.88
Bid-YTW : 2.95 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 45,280 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-24
Maturity Price : 24.61
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
TD.PR.K FixedReset 42,077 Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 26.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.96
Bid-YTW : 2.64 %
CM.PR.M FixedReset 36,500 RBC crossed 25,000 at 27.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.20
Bid-YTW : 2.46 %
There were 24 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.17 – 25.48
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2300

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.17
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %

ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.00 – 26.24
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1617

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : -29.96 %

RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.76 – 26.06
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2247

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 25.76
Bid-YTW : 3.33 %

RY.PR.G Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.52 – 25.75
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1623

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.52
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %

TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium Quote: 52.17 – 52.50
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2725

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 52.17
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %

BAM.PF.A FixedReset Quote: 25.30 – 25.49
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1385

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-24
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %

Issue Comments

DBRS: BAM is Not-Quite-Trend-Negative

DBRS has announced that it:

has today confirmed the ratings of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAM or the Company) at A (low), R-1 (low) and Pfd-2 (low). The ratings pertain to BAM at the corporate level. The ratings remain on a Stable trend, notwithstanding weaker corporate-level financial metrics in 2011 because of increased corporate-level debt to finance the growing invested capital. DBRS recognizes that the financial metrics are now weak for the ratings and believes that there is currently minimal room for further deterioration without pressuring the ratings. If one of the following scenarios were to materialize, DBRS will review and base our rating decision on an assessment of the contributing causes, the Company’s remedial plan and other relevant circumstances. These scenarios are: (1) Material increase in the proportion of BAM’s invested capital in less-stable opportunistic investments and private equity, leading to debt increases. (2) Material deterioration or rating downgrade in one or more of the core businesses. (3) Inability to improve cash flow coverage metrics (which could include funds from operations (FFO)-to-debt and FFO fixed charge coverage) to their 2010 levels by the end of 2012.

BAM’s corporate-level debt and issuance of preferred shares have increased in the past two years to partly finance its investments. In the meantime, operating cash flows from its investments recorded only modest growth. As a result, BAM’s corporate-level cash flow coverage metrics have weakened during the period, with FFO coverage-to-debt of 23% in 2011 (from 30% in 2010), FFO-to-interest of 4.5 times (x) (from 5.1x) and FFO-to-fixed charges (interests and preferred share dividend) of 3.1x (from 3.7x). We consider these 2011 levels weak for the ratings and expect improvement during 2012.

BAM’s corporate-level liquidity is strong, supported by corporate-level cash and available credit facilities of $2.4 billion as at December 31, 2011, and annual FFO after corporate expenses of about US$1.0 billion. Currently, there is no material debt repayment scheduled until 2014, when US$518 million comes due. The Company’s financial flexibility is further supported by its ability to access its external investor base and capital markets and to monetize part of its investments in listed vehicles, estimated to have a market value of US$17.9 billion (covering 3.8x the corporate-level debt of US$4.7 billion). While BAM’s liquidity should comfortably cover its corporate-level needs, DBRS notes that the Company remains largely dependent on external investors’ capital and equity issuances to support its growth.

This follows a similar, but more emphatic judgement by S&P.

BAM is the proud issuer of a great many preferred share issues: BAM.PF.A, BAM.PR.B, BAM.PR.C, BAM.PR.E, BAM.PR.G, BAM.PR.I, BAM.PR.J, BAM.PR.K, BAM.PR.M, BAM.PR.N, BAM.PR.O, BAM.PR.P, BAM.PR.R, BAM.PR.T, BAM.PR.X and BAM.PR.Z.

Market Action

April 23, 2012

The Dutch government is in disarray:

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte offered to quit, a move that would trigger early elections, as he sought to win parliamentary support for additional budget cuts needed to steer the Netherlands clear of the debt crisis.

With budget deliberations dragging on since March 5, the fate of Rutte’s minority government was thrown into doubt on April 21 when Wilders and his Freedom Party unexpectedly withdrew its support over how to narrow the shortfall. That prompted Rutte to cite new elections as “an obvious scenario” to try to resolve the deadlock.

In the Netherlands, the euro-area’s fifth biggest economy, the 2013 budget shortfall is currently forecast at 4.6 percent of gross domestic product. To pare it to 3 percent as specified by the European Commission, Rutte needs to find at least 9.5 billion euros of extra cuts to submit to Brussels by April 30.

“The package is way too rigorous and it’s bad for the economy,” Emile Roemer, head of the Socialist Party, which would double its seats to 30 according to latest polls, said in broadcast remarks. “We need to have elections and clarity as soon as possible.”

The opposition Labor Party is willing to cooperate with the government on preparing a complete 2013 budget only if elections are held in September, party leader Diederik Samsom told NOS television April 21. Economic growth is more important than meeting the 3 percent deficit target, Samsom said.

I mentioned a classic example of how investment managers are hired on April 18, 2011. The CalPERS story continues:

The former chief executive of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System was sued by U.S. regulators over claims he defrauded an investment firm into paying $20 million in fees to a friend’s placement agencies.

Federico Buenrostro, who served as Calpers CEO from 2002 to 2008, and his friend Alfred Villalobos, the former deputy mayor of Los Angeles, fabricated documents given to New York-based private-equity firm Apollo Global Management (APO), the Securities and Exchange Commission said today in a lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Nevada. California regulators sued the two men in May 2010 over similar claims.

The documents gave the false impression that Calpers had reviewed and signed placement-agent fee-disclosure letters in accordance with its established procedures, the SEC said. The lawsuit also names Villalobos and his firm ARVCO Capital Research LLC as defendants.

“Buenrostro and Villalobos not only tricked Apollo into paying more than $20 million in placement agent fees it would not otherwise have paid, but also undermined procedures designed to ensure that investors like Calpers have full disclosure of such fees,” John McCoy, associate regional director of the SEC’s Los Angeles office, said in a statement.

DBRS has released the Split Share Funds Quarterly Report – Q1 2012.

It was a mixed, unexciting day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums down 4bp, FixedResets up 5bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 1bp. Volatility was muted. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.8570 % 2,427.7
FixedFloater 4.43 % 3.79 % 33,588 17.80 1 0.1401 % 3,559.5
Floater 2.97 % 3.00 % 42,610 19.74 3 0.8570 % 2,621.3
OpRet 4.76 % 2.72 % 48,950 1.15 5 0.0230 % 2,507.1
SplitShare 5.26 % 1.48 % 77,498 0.65 4 -0.0843 % 2,687.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0230 % 2,292.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.47 % 1.73 % 81,031 0.11 23 -0.0363 % 2,224.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.20 % 5.28 % 155,073 15.01 10 -0.0705 % 2,401.5
FixedReset 5.02 % 3.10 % 192,281 2.19 67 0.0496 % 2,397.3
Deemed-Retractible 4.97 % 3.79 % 196,016 1.99 46 0.0081 % 2,307.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-23
Maturity Price : 17.91
Evaluated at bid price : 17.91
Bid-YTW : 2.95 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-23
Maturity Price : 17.62
Evaluated at bid price : 17.62
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.E OpRet 117,200 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 40,000 and 75,000, both at 26.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.50
Bid-YTW : 2.72 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 86,180 RBC crossed 80,000 at 22.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
FTS.PR.C OpRet 84,079 Nesbitt crossed 75,000 at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : -0.25 %
BNS.PR.N Deemed-Retractible 58,935 TD crossed 49,900 at 26.48.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-01-29
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.43
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %
RY.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 54,515 TD crossed 49,100 at 25.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 41,200 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-23
Maturity Price : 24.56
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 17.43 – 18.75
Spot Rate : 1.3200
Average : 0.8811

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-23
Maturity Price : 17.43
Evaluated at bid price : 17.43
Bid-YTW : 3.03 %

FTS.PR.C OpRet Quote: 25.60 – 25.95
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2271

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : -0.25 %

RY.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 26.69 – 26.95
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1627

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-11-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.69
Bid-YTW : 3.17 %

GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.90 – 26.19
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2054

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %

CM.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 26.21 – 26.61
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.3288

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.21
Bid-YTW : 3.10 %

POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.80 – 26.03
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1596

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %

PrefLetter

PrefLetter 2011 Collection Released!

The full collection of PrefLetters published in 2011 has been released and is now available for purchase via the PrefLetter website (click Subscribe Now).

The 2011 Collection includes the following appendices of varying length:

  • January: the run-up in deeply discounted Straight Preferreds “almost certainly driven by speculators attempting to out-guess OSFI regarding the transitional arrangements for the new Basel III bank capital rules.”
  • February: discussing OSFI’s recent regulatory pronouncements and the implications for future analysis.
  • March: discussing Risk, Reward and DeemedRetractibles.
  • April: reprises the very popular “Annuities” topic of the April, 2010, edition. A retirement calculator has been developed that includes annuities as an asset class, in addition to the standard stocks and bonds.
  • May: the concept of Dividend Capture and its applicability to FixedReset preferreds.
  • June: the analytical implications of CIBC’s machinations with respect to its preferred shares. There is also a discussion of Yellow Media’s preferreds
  • July: a brief review of Yield – and outlines some of
    the assumption made in the calculation of yield that are not always defensible.

  • August: the credit quality of the YLO preferred share issues in light of the 11Q2 results, credit rating downgrades and dividend cut.
  • September: updates the news regarding YLO.
  • October: the first is a comparison of four Canadian preferred share measures: CPD, DPS.UN, the BMO-CM “50” index, and Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund; the second is a discussion of Security of Income vs. Security of Principal
  • November: the first concludes the discussion of yield that commenced in the July edition, while the second is an update of the situation with respect to YLO.
  • December: discusses “Liquidity Black Holes” and shows that sudden drops in price can be both entirely rational and unrelated to fundamentals.

The total length of the 2011 Annual Collection is 421 pages (file size about 17.0 MB) – much of this is, of course, the by now out of date recommendations of individual issues, but more than half of the total is comprised of the appendices.

PrefLetter

Choose a New Font for PrefLetter!

For various arcane reasons, it has become desirable to change the font for PrefLetter.

My hard-working (and much abused) typesetter has proposed five PrefLetter_typeface_ideas that will meet the technical requirements:

  • Frutiger
  • Frutiger Condensed
  • Slate Std.
  • Myriad Pro
  • Berkeley

Have a look at the five PrefLetter_typeface_ideas and let me know in the comments or by eMail if you have any preference! The change will be effective with the May edition.

Market Action

April 20, 2012

Nothing happened today, so I went to a flamenco show. During an informal question and answer period after the show (you aren’t allowed to merely enjoy anything nowadays, particularly dance: you must show diligence in getting booked up) Ms. Enrique explained that the large fans held by the women were mocking the fans held at one time by the nobility at court, exaggerated for satirical purposes; the long trains on some of the dresses are in the same vein.

Which got me to wondering: how are the rich mocked today? I’m not convinced that they are, at least not in North America, where there is a degree of social mobility lacking in a structured society. We don’t mock their wine cellars – because we all want a 5,000 bottle wine cellar. We don’t mock their private planes – because we all want a private plane. Even rap artists, who one might expect to be the most logical source of mockery, make a big fuss about how wonderful it is to have big cars and drink champagne and all the rest of it. We don’t mock the rich, because they are us. The rich are not like you and me – they have more money!

It was a soft day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 3bp, FixedResets losing 16bp and DeemedRetractibles down 11bp. Volatility was good. Volume was heavy, with quite a few issues trading more than 100,000 shares.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2673 % 2,407.1
FixedFloater 4.44 % 3.79 % 33,988 17.79 1 -1.2903 % 3,554.6
Floater 3.00 % 3.03 % 43,249 19.65 3 0.2673 % 2,599.0
OpRet 4.76 % 2.88 % 46,568 1.16 5 -0.2216 % 2,506.5
SplitShare 5.25 % 0.33 % 80,666 0.65 4 0.0149 % 2,689.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2216 % 2,292.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.46 % 1.66 % 82,110 0.12 23 0.0306 % 2,224.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.19 % 5.24 % 156,312 15.08 10 0.2913 % 2,403.2
FixedReset 5.01 % 3.02 % 191,117 2.17 67 -0.1589 % 2,396.1
Deemed-Retractible 4.97 % 3.80 % 198,511 2.86 46 -0.1111 % 2,306.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.46
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-20
Maturity Price : 22.26
Evaluated at bid price : 21.42
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.77
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 52.75
Bid-YTW : 2.49 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-20
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 22.71
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 2.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-20
Maturity Price : 22.41
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.P FixedReset 174,877 RBC crossed 150,000 at 26.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.90
Bid-YTW : 2.92 %
CM.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 154,240 Called for redemption
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 25.98
Bid-YTW : 3.36 %
ENB.PR.H FixedReset 141,525 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-20
Maturity Price : 23.23
Evaluated at bid price : 25.42
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 136,477 RBC crossed 119,700 at 25.62.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.49
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 119,350 RBC bought three blocks from anonymous, two of 10,000 shares, one of 14,200, all at 25.45. Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 25.44.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-20
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 115,110 TD crossed 50,000 at 26.82; Nesbitt crossed 60,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 2.61 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet 109,249 Nesbitt crossed 98,400 at 26.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.45
Bid-YTW : 2.88 %
FTS.PR.C OpRet 108,702 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.57
Bid-YTW : 0.79 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 105,300 Nesbitt crossed 35,600 at 25.99 and 20,000 at 25.98.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.91
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 101,300 Nesbitt crossed 36,800 at 25.99 and bought 10,000 from anonymous at 25.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
There were 47 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 17.70 – 18.70
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.5966

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-20
Maturity Price : 17.70
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %

BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 17.41 – 18.00
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.4000

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-20
Maturity Price : 17.41
Evaluated at bid price : 17.41
Bid-YTW : 3.03 %

TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium Quote: 52.75 – 53.25
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3297

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 52.75
Bid-YTW : 2.49 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 21.42 – 22.10
Spot Rate : 0.6800
Average : 0.5259

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-20
Maturity Price : 22.26
Evaluated at bid price : 21.42
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %

BNS.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 26.65 – 26.95
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1870

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.65
Bid-YTW : 2.80 %

SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.46 – 23.73
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1599

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.46
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %

Issue Comments

TCL.PR.D: Confirmed at Pfd-3(high), Trend Now Negative, says DBRS

DBRS has announced that it:

has today confirmed its long-term and preferred share ratings on Transcontinental Inc. (Transcontinental or the Company) at BBB (high) and Pfd-3 (high), respectively. The trends have been changed to Negative. While the Company’s business risk profile and financial profile continue to support a rating above the BB (high) business risk rating for the printing industry, DBRS expects the structural factors that Transcontinental is facing (such as declining demand for print and pricing pressure), along with increased competitive forces (both factors contributed to lower revenue and EBITDA for the two most recent quarters), to persist and potentially accelerate further for Transcontinental over the medium term. As such, these challenges could reduce the Company’s rating differential relative to the printing industry.

The Negative trend reflects DBRS’s expectation that structural forces in both Transcontinental’s Printing and Media segments will persist and could accelerate with excess capacity in the printing industry and a structural shift to digital forms of media affecting both segments. In fact, DBRS notes that, from an industry perspective, digital advertising in the United States surpassed newspaper print advertising for the first time in 2011 (likely just below this level in Canada at the end of 2011), with digital advertising in the United States expected to surpass combined newspaper and magazine print advertising spending in 2012.

From a financial risk perspective, Transcontinental has demonstrated healthy free cash flow conversion, leverage and credit metrics that are above the industry average. This includes EBITDA interest coverage of over 9.0 times, cash flow-to-debt of 0.40 times and gross debt-to-EBITDA of 1.76 times. However, with organic revenue and EBITDA growth under pressure, DBRS believes free cash flow will be directed to small-to-medium acquisitions and increasingly toward shareholder-friendly initiatives. In fact, DBRS notes that inorganic growth must be undertaken by Transcontinental in order to support the dividend growth model that the Company strives to maintain.

DBRS believes Transcontinental’s business risk profile continues to weaken due to a structural shift from traditional forms of media to new forms of media. Competitive forces in the traditional printing industry should continue to intensify with ongoing excess capacity, while the new forms of media are also highly competitive with lower barriers to entry and a less-proven profit model.

TCL.PR.D was added to TXPR in the January, 2012, rebalancing after having been removed in July, 2011. It was upgraded to P-3(high) by S&P in December, 2010.

TCL.PR.D is tracked by HIMIPref™, but is relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Market Action

April 19, 2012

There’s a dilemma the politicians are having a problem with: how can you square long-term lending risk with zero short term lender risk? The Europeans are trying hard!

European Union lawmakers are considering rules to protect bank depositors that may stymie two of the main funding sources for the region’s lenders.

The proposals risk limiting how much banks can raise from covered bond sales and European Central Bank loans by placing curbs on the assets they can use for security. The aim is to boost protection for account holders and other creditors.

Tying up assets in collateralized fundraisings is known as encumbrance and pushes unsecured creditors further back in the queue for payment in a default. Any move to limit secured debt issuance risks hurting banks that have relied on record covered bond sales and the 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) of loans that the ECB has pumped into the system since December.

But getting too cocky about Anglo-Saxon capitalism, remember US efforts to eliminate liquidity:

Wall Street banks will have two years to implement the so-called Volcker rule so long as they make a “good faith” effort to comply with the ban on proprietary trading, U.S. regulators said.

Banks will have the “full two-year period” provided by the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul law to “fully conform” their activities and investments, the Federal Reserve and four other U.S. agencies said in a statement today. The Fed has the authority to extend the period of compliance beyond July 21, 2014, the regulators said.

France and Spain paid up for funding:

France sold 8 billion euros ($10.5 billion) in debt today as risks linked to the French presidential election drove up yields.

The amount sold was at the maximum target set by Agence France Tresor, the country’s debt-management body. France sold 2.7 billion euros of benchmark five-year debt at an average yield of 1.83 percent, up from 1.78 percent on March 15.

Earlier today, Spain sold 2.54 billion euros in two- and 10-year bonds, slightly more than the maximum target of 2.5 billion euros. Borrowing costs rose as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s struggles to meet deficit targets.

Scrutiny of both countries is increasing amid the fading effect of the European Central Bank’s longer-term refinancing operation, which injected about 1 trillion euros of liquidity into the region’s financial system. The yield on Spain’s benchmark 10-year bond has jumped about 1 percentage point since the beginning of March to above 6 percent, while the yield on the equivalent French debt has gained more than 10 basis points with Socialist Francois Hollande leading in election polls.

It would seem that the bond market shaves the Spanish barber:

Spain sold 2.54 billion euros ($3.3 billion) of bonds, just above the maximum target for the auction, and its borrowing costs rose. Bonds declined after the sale.

The Treasury sold its 10-year benchmark bond at an average yield of 5.743 percent, compared with 5.789 percent on the secondary market before the sale and 5.403 percent when it last sold them in January. It sold two-year securities at 3.463 percent.

It was a quiet day overall for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 7bp, FixedResets up 3bp and DeemedRetractibles off 2bp. Oddly, there was a violent move in the PerpetualDiscount sector – the Performance Highlights table is comprised entirely of three losers of this ilk. However, these three issues were responsible for the entire PerpetualDiscount index move. Volume was below average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1530 % 2,400.7
FixedFloater 4.38 % 3.73 % 34,226 17.90 1 -0.9132 % 3,601.0
Floater 3.01 % 3.02 % 43,761 19.68 3 0.1530 % 2,592.1
OpRet 4.75 % 2.85 % 44,941 1.16 5 0.0612 % 2,512.1
SplitShare 5.26 % -4.01 % 83,352 0.66 4 -0.0099 % 2,689.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0612 % 2,297.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.46 % 0.50 % 83,208 0.12 23 0.0739 % 2,224.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.21 % 5.25 % 144,713 15.04 10 -0.7025 % 2,396.2
FixedReset 5.01 % 2.99 % 188,403 2.17 67 0.0320 % 2,399.9
Deemed-Retractible 4.96 % 3.79 % 200,619 2.86 46 -0.0248 % 2,309.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -3.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-19
Maturity Price : 22.05
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -2.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-19
Maturity Price : 21.78
Evaluated at bid price : 22.09
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-19
Maturity Price : 22.42
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.M FixedReset 206,300 Nesbitt crossed one block of 100,000 shares and two of 50,000 each, all at 27.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.20
Bid-YTW : 2.45 %
PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Premium 171,950 Nesbitt crossed 60,000 at 25.90; Desjardins crossed three blocks, of 10,000 shares, 15,000 and 75,000, all at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
CM.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 143,566 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 25.98
Bid-YTW : 3.35 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 90,061 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 24.50; RBC crossed 35,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.51
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
ENB.PR.H FixedReset 72,121 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-19
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 68,490 Nesbitt bought 16,500 from TD at 25.65; Scotia crossed 30,000 at 25.61.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
There were 24 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.09 – 22.91
Spot Rate : 0.8200
Average : 0.5337

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-19
Maturity Price : 21.78
Evaluated at bid price : 22.09
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %

BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.31 – 22.91
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.3877

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-04-19
Maturity Price : 22.05
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %

BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.78 – 27.02
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1448

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-25
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.78
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %

CM.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 26.35 – 26.70
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2625

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.35
Bid-YTW : 2.84 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.15 – 26.49
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2552

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %

RY.PR.L FixedReset Quote: 26.51 – 26.82
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2322

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.51
Bid-YTW : 2.72 %

Issue Comments

ENB.PR.U Closes at Significant Premium on Heavy Volume

Enbridge Inc. has announced:

it has closed its previously announced public offering of cumulative redeemable preferred shares, Series J (the “Series J Preferred Shares”) by a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotiabank. Enbridge issued 8 million Series J Preferred Shares for gross proceeds of US$200 million. The Series J Preferred Shares will begin trading on the TSX today under the symbol ENB.PR.U. The proceeds will be used for capital expenditures, to repay indebtedness and for other general corporate purposes.

ENB.PR.U is a FixedReset, 4.00%+305, US-Pay, announced April 10.

The issue traded 1,054,194 shares today in a range of 25.35-50 before closing at 25.35-40, 53×244.

ENB.PR.U will not be tracked by HIMIPref™ as it is US-Pay and there are not enough US-Pay issues to form an analytical universe.