Market Action

April 15, 2009

Amidst all the shock and horror about American lending practices, the Boston Fed has published an examination of credit availability to recent bankrupts by Ethan Cohen-Cole, Burcu Duygan-Bump, and Judit Montoriol-Garriga: Forgive and Forget: Who Gets Credit after Bankruptcy and Why?:

Conventional wisdom about individuals who have gone bankrupt is that they find it very difficult to get credit for at least some time after their bankruptcy. However, there is very little non-survey based empirical evidence on the availability of credit post-bankruptcy. This paper makes two contributions using data from one of the largest credit bureaus in the US. First, we show that individuals who file for bankruptcy can indeed get credit very quickly after they file. Indeed, 90% of individuals have access to some sort of credit within the 18 months after filing for bankruptcy, and 66% have unsecured credit. Second, we show that those individuals who are effectively the least punished and can get the easiest access to credit after bankruptcy tend to be the ones who have shown the least ability and propensity to repay their debt prior to declaring bankruptcy. In fact, a significant fraction of individuals at the bottom of the credit quality spectrum seem to receive more credit after filing than before. We interpret the widespread credit access and the difference in credit provision across borrower types as evidence that lenders target at-risk borrowers. By means of a simple stylized model we show that this observation is consistent with a profit maximizing lender whose optimal strategy involves segmenting borrowers by observable credit quality and bankruptcy status and that offers credit contracts to each group. This interpretation is also in line with survey evidence that shows that lenders repeatedly solicit debtors to borrow after bankruptcy, with unsecured credit card being the easiest one to obtain.

Holy smokes, the preferred share market is on fire! Up strongly again today, continuing the two week rally highlighted yesterday, with volume still above normal levels.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.87%, equivalent to 9.62% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x, compared to Long Corporates which continue mired in their range of 7.50% … this time, maybe a hair below, but no more than a hair. The pre-tax interest-equivalent spread has thus narrowed to about 212bp, which is starting to look normal … normal, at least, by Credit Crunch standards, still well above the un-stressedl range of 100-150bp.

It is noteworthy that the Median Duration (YTW) of the HIMIPref™ Fixed-Reset index is now a mere 4.59 Years.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1199 % 931.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1199 % 1,505.7
Floater 5.24 % 5.22 % 66,433 15.14 2 0.1199 % 1,163.1
OpRet 5.14 % 4.67 % 143,523 3.88 15 0.4145 % 2,116.6
SplitShare 6.75 % 10.45 % 45,282 5.65 3 0.1391 % 1,713.0
Interest-Bearing 6.18 % 10.40 % 28,045 0.68 1 -0.9184 % 1,929.6
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6967 % 1,612.4
Perpetual-Discount 6.76 % 6.87 % 148,906 12.75 71 0.6967 % 1,485.0
FixedReset 5.96 % 5.45 % 668,892 4.59 35 0.4780 % 1,889.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 18.21
Evaluated at bid price : 18.21
Bid-YTW : 7.09 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 20.12
Evaluated at bid price : 20.12
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 8.25
Evaluated at bid price : 8.25
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
BNS.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.36
Evaluated at bid price : 17.36
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 6.65 %
CM.PR.K FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 23.20
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
RY.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 18.20
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.30
Evaluated at bid price : 17.30
Bid-YTW : 7.09 %
IAG.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 15.50
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 7.51 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.15
Evaluated at bid price : 17.15
Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
RY.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.85
Evaluated at bid price : 17.85
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
RY.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.83
Evaluated at bid price : 17.83
Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 22.44
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
CM.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 6.85 %
BNS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 20.26
Evaluated at bid price : 20.26
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 20.07
Evaluated at bid price : 20.07
Bid-YTW : 7.01 %
RY.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.85
Evaluated at bid price : 17.85
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
SLF.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 15.67
Evaluated at bid price : 15.67
Bid-YTW : 7.19 %
RY.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 8.45
Evaluated at bid price : 8.45
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
BMO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 6.65 %
NA.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 6.93 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 16.25
Evaluated at bid price : 16.25
Bid-YTW : 8.23 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 14.43
Evaluated at bid price : 14.43
Bid-YTW : 8.31 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 16.15
Evaluated at bid price : 16.15
Bid-YTW : 7.05 %
BNS.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.42
Evaluated at bid price : 17.42
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
GWO.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 7.06 %
RY.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 18.70
Evaluated at bid price : 18.70
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
BNS.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 18.39
Evaluated at bid price : 18.39
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
BAM.PR.I OpRet 1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-12-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.55
Bid-YTW : 7.07 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset 1.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 22.76
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
HSB.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.76
Evaluated at bid price : 17.76
Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
SLF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 15.95
Evaluated at bid price : 15.95
Bid-YTW : 7.14 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.84
Evaluated at bid price : 17.84
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 16.71
Evaluated at bid price : 16.71
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
BNS.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 2.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 20.45
Evaluated at bid price : 20.45
Bid-YTW : 6.45 %
BMO.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 21.82
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 6.74 %
NA.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 6.75 %
SLF.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 2.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 6.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 7.95 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PR.K FixedReset 166,774 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 151,439 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.79
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 102,593 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 68,275 National Bank crossed 30,000 at 26.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.42
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 63,705 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.30
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 61,400 RBC crossed 44,500 at 17.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-15
Maturity Price : 16.71
Evaluated at bid price : 16.71
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
There were 41 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Issue Comments

RPA.PR.A RPB.PR.B & RPQ.PR.A: Credit Event & a Restatement of Financials

CC&L Group announced on March 31:

ROC Pref II Corp., ROC Pref III Corp. and Connor, Clark & Lunn ROC Pref Corp. (collectively the “Companies”) announced that the decision by Idearc Inc. to voluntarily file petitions for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code is expected to constitute a credit event under the credit linked note (“CLN”) issued by their respective counterparties.

Idearc was created through a spin-off from Verizon Communications Inc. in November 2006. The Reference Portfolios of the Companies have exposure to Idearc Inc. at a half-weight as opposed to a full weight as a result of the spin-off. Idearc operates yellow pages directories in the U.S. The economic recession has negatively affected spending on directories advertising with customer cancellations due to credit deterioration and lower customer renewal rates resulting in declining cash flows thereby reducing Idearc’s ability to support its current level of debt.

The impact of the Idearc credit event on ROC Pref II Corp. and Connor, Clark & Lunn ROC Pref Corp. will be known when the recovery rate is determined within the next several weeks. The recovery rate for ROC Pref III Corp. is fixed at 40%. As a result, the Idearc credit event is expected to reduce the number of additional defaults that ROC Pref III Corp. can sustain before the payment of $25.00 per Preferred Share at maturity is adversely affected by approximately 0.5 to 2.6.

ROC Pref II Corp., ROC Pref III Corp. and Connor, Clark & Lunn ROC Pref Corp. are listed for trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols RPA.PR.A, RPB.PR.B and RPQ.PR.A, respectively.

Additionally, RPQ.PR.A is restating its financials:

the Company has restated and refiled its interim financial statements and management report of fund performance for the six months ended December 31, 2008.

In November 2008, the Company announced the implementation of restructuring initiatives designed to increase the likelihood that the Company will be able to repay the $25.00 Preferred Share issue price on the redemption of the Preferred Shares on June 30, 2011. As part of these initiatives, the next three quarters’ coupons on the underlying credit linked note (“CLN”) were sold to The Bank of Nova Scotia (“BNS”) (the issuer of the CLN) in return for additional subordination so that the number of defaults the CLN can sustain before principal and interest payments are adversely affected was increased.

In March 2009, the Manager determined that the 2008 fourth quarter CLN coupon payment had mistakenly been made by BNS resulting in an overstatement of Credit Trust IV’s and the Company’s net asset value. At the same time, the Manager also revisited the assumptions used to calculate the deferred management fee. The net impact of the two adjustments was a decrease in net assets by $0.07 per Preferred Share as at December 31, 2008. The Company has been reimbursed for the excess amounts paid out on the redemption of Preferred Shares as a result of the higher Preferred Share value.

It never rains but it pours!

RPQ.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog in connection with the downgrade of the credit linked note (or, at least, what I think is the credit linked note). All three issues were mentioned with respect to the Tribune Credit Event in December.

None of these issues are tracked by HIMIPref™.

Market Action

April 14, 2009

The Globe & Mail reports that new rules for retail bond desks are coming:

Many investors would for the first time find out exactly how much commission they are paying to buy and sell bonds. Industry convention is to hide the commission in the purchase or sale price of the bond, but the new rules would force it to be broken out.

The rules would also require better disclosure of the bond’s yield – the real interest rate based on the price.

Perhaps most importantly, and contentiously, IIROC plans a “fair pricing rule” to enable regulators to punish dealers who trade bonds at prices far from the true market price.

Thoroughly precious and idiotic. There are some fine alternatives available for retail investors who don’t know what they’re doing: funds. I have no idea what this “yield disclosure” thingy might mean; perhaps it simply means that dealers will be required to print the yield on their confirms, as they are for Money Market instruments.

Look for retail bond offerings at brokerages to be even more sharply reduced than they are now. When you buy your GIC, you’ll know you’re getting best execution on the price!

The market continued its rally today with heavy volume. Performance for the past two weeks has been impressive:

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.4599 % 929.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.4599 % 1,503.9
Floater 5.25 % 5.28 % 64,517 15.04 2 1.4599 % 1,161.7
OpRet 5.16 % 4.56 % 141,674 3.88 15 0.0407 % 2,107.9
SplitShare 6.76 % 10.43 % 45,700 5.65 3 0.8944 % 1,710.6
Interest-Bearing 6.12 % 8.99 % 27,769 0.69 1 -0.3052 % 1,947.5
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.7653 % 1,601.3
Perpetual-Discount 6.81 % 6.92 % 146,539 12.68 71 0.7653 % 1,474.8
FixedReset 5.99 % 5.50 % 659,594 7.51 35 0.3595 % 1,880.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -2.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 17.41
Evaluated at bid price : 17.41
Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 8.95 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 18.81
Evaluated at bid price : 18.81
Bid-YTW : 7.01 %
CIU.PR.B FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 17.63
Evaluated at bid price : 17.63
Bid-YTW : 7.15 %
BNS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
SLF.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 15.86
Evaluated at bid price : 15.86
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
BMO.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 21.37
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 6.92 %
BNS.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 17.18
Evaluated at bid price : 17.18
Bid-YTW : 6.58 %
RY.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 17.99
Evaluated at bid price : 17.99
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 23.58
Evaluated at bid price : 23.62
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
IAG.PR.C FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 23.05
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
CM.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 19.83
Evaluated at bid price : 19.83
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
SLF.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 16.66
Evaluated at bid price : 16.66
Bid-YTW : 7.21 %
GWO.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 20.77
Evaluated at bid price : 20.77
Bid-YTW : 7.19 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 19.83
Evaluated at bid price : 19.83
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 20.66
Evaluated at bid price : 20.66
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
BNA.PR.A SplitShare 1.28 % Asset coverage of 1.7-:1 as of February 28 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2010-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 10.43 %
W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 20.68
Evaluated at bid price : 20.68
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 22.98
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
BNS.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 19.97
Evaluated at bid price : 19.97
Bid-YTW : 6.61 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 16.95
Evaluated at bid price : 16.95
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 17.45
Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %
CM.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 19.28
Evaluated at bid price : 19.28
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
BNA.PR.C SplitShare 1.68 % Asset coverage of 1.7-:1 as of February 28 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.72
Bid-YTW : 13.84 %
HSB.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %
BAM.PR.I OpRet 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-12-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 7.55 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 7.17 %
POW.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 7.24 %
TD.PR.Q Perpetual-Discount 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 18.68
Evaluated at bid price : 18.68
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 17.37
Evaluated at bid price : 17.37
Bid-YTW : 6.79 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 16.34
Evaluated at bid price : 16.34
Bid-YTW : 6.98 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount 2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset 2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 22.94
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
TD.PR.A FixedReset 2.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 23.25
Evaluated at bid price : 23.29
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 8.35
Evaluated at bid price : 8.35
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
CM.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 3.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 16.55
Evaluated at bid price : 16.55
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 3.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 18.65
Evaluated at bid price : 18.65
Bid-YTW : 6.87 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 3.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 7.17 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 4.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 8.36 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 164,185 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 6.52 %
RY.PR.T FixedReset 140,859 Nesbitt crossed 48,000 at 25.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
TD.PR.K FixedReset 140,571 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.46
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 133,486 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.66
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 93,885 Nesbitt bought 10,000 from National at 24.89; TD crossed 61,500 at 24.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 24.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 74,629 Desjardins crossed 70,000 at 24.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-14
Maturity Price : 23.96
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
There were 49 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Market Action

April 13, 2009

Strong performance today on normal volume. Not much news – government holiday!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5505 % 916.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5505 % 1,482.2
Floater 5.32 % 5.30 % 68,733 15.02 2 0.5505 % 1,145.0
OpRet 5.16 % 4.71 % 142,281 3.89 15 0.1493 % 2,107.0
SplitShare 6.82 % 11.37 % 45,975 5.65 3 0.2461 % 1,695.5
Interest-Bearing 6.10 % 8.50 % 28,900 0.69 1 0.1018 % 1,953.4
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5142 % 1,589.1
Perpetual-Discount 6.86 % 6.98 % 147,104 12.60 71 0.5142 % 1,463.6
FixedReset 6.01 % 5.47 % 667,801 7.65 35 0.2712 % 1,874.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 16.60
Evaluated at bid price : 16.60
Bid-YTW : 7.31 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 18.31
Evaluated at bid price : 18.31
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 20.73
Evaluated at bid price : 20.73
Bid-YTW : 7.15 %
BNS.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 17.01
Evaluated at bid price : 17.01
Bid-YTW : 6.65 %
CM.PR.L FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
BMO.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 19.05
Evaluated at bid price : 19.05
Bid-YTW : 7.02 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 17.01
Evaluated at bid price : 17.01
Bid-YTW : 6.93 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 16.80
Evaluated at bid price : 16.80
Bid-YTW : 7.30 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 14.10
Evaluated at bid price : 14.10
Bid-YTW : 8.50 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 19.85
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 6.98 %
CM.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 19.61
Evaluated at bid price : 19.61
Bid-YTW : 7.05 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 18.01
Evaluated at bid price : 18.01
Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 6.80 %
PWF.PR.J OpRet 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 7.08 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 15.90
Evaluated at bid price : 15.90
Bid-YTW : 7.16 %
TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Discount 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 45.01
Evaluated at bid price : 46.85
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
SLF.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 15.70
Evaluated at bid price : 15.70
Bid-YTW : 7.17 %
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 2.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 18.45
Evaluated at bid price : 18.45
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 2.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 14.20
Evaluated at bid price : 14.20
Bid-YTW : 8.48 %
CU.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 2.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 23.01
Evaluated at bid price : 23.25
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.X FixedReset 85,069 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 79,097 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-13
Maturity Price : 25.16
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 60,745 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 6.52 %
TD.PR.K FixedReset 41,346 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
RY.PR.T FixedReset 34,683 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
CM.PR.L FixedReset 30,348 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
There were 20 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
PrefLetter

April Edition of PrefLetter Released!

The April, 2009, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

As previously announced, PrefLetter is now available to residents of British Columbia and Manitoba, as well as Ontario and to entities registered with the Quebec Securities Commission.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the April, 2009, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the May, 2009, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close May 8 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on May 11. It will make an admirable Mother’s day present!

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

Note: A new enhancement to the PrefLetter website is the Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: Some subscribers will have received two copies of this month’s edition; others will have received their copy as a direct eMail from me. I apologize for this; I experienced a most inopportune software failure.

Note: PrefLetter, being delivered to clients as a large attachment by eMail, sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

Issue Comments

SBC.PR.A: Capital Unit Dividend Suspended

Better late than never! Brompton Split Banc Corp. announced on 2008-12-17:

In accordance with its prospectus and the Class A Share Provisions, the regular, non-cumulative, monthly distribution for the month of December will not be paid on the class A shares of Brompton Split Banc Corp. Under the prospectus, no cash distribution may be paid on the class A shares, if after payment of the distribution by the Fund, the net asset value per unit (consisting of one class A share and one preferred share) would be less than $15.00. The net asset value per unit as at December 11, 2008 was $13.52. The Fund will re-evaluate the payment of class A share distributions in each subsequent month with the expectation that normal monthly distributions will resume and a press release will be issued if the net asset value per unit is in excess of $15.00 prior to declaration.

NAV was $15.16 on April 2 according to the company, so resumption may well be in the cards!

SBC.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when it was downgraded to Pfd-3 by DBRS. SBC.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™ but was relegated to the “Scraps” index at the February 2009 rebalancing on credit concerns.

Issue Comments

LFE.PR.A: Dividends on Capital Units Suspended

Better late than never! Canadian Life Companies Split Corp announced on Dec. 18:

There will not be a distribution paid to the Class A shares for December 31, 2008 as per the Prospectus which states no regular monthly dividends or other distributions will be paid on the Class A shares in any month as long as the net asset value per unit is equal to or less than $15.00. The net asset value as of December 15, 2008 was $13.65.

The NAV on March 31 was $11.69 according to the company.

LFE.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when it was downgraded to Pfd-4 by DBRS. LFE.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™ but was relegated to the “Scraps” index in the March 2009 rebalancing due to credit concerns.

Interesting External Papers

Boston Fed Policy Discussion: Reducing Foreclosures

I haven’t had much time to look at this Public Policy Discussion Paper, but Christopher L. Foote, Kristopher S. Gerardi, Lorenz Goette, and Paul S. Willen seem to have taken a good look at the data – and listened to it!

It is interesting that the Boston Fed is releasing this paper on Good Friday – could it be that management is not 100% enthralled at the political incorrectness of the conclusions?

Abstract:

This paper takes a skeptical look at a leading argument about what is causing the foreclosure crisis and what should be done to stop it. We use an economic model to focus on two key decisions: the borrower’s choice to default on the mortgage and the lender’s choice on whether to renegotiate or “modify” the loan. The theoretical model and econometric analysis illustrate that “unaffordable” loans, defined as those with high mortgage payments relative to income at origination, are unlikely to be the main reason that borrowers decide to default. Rather, the typical problem appears to be a combination of household income shocks and an unprecedented fall in house prices. Regarding the small number of loan modifications to date, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that the efficiency of foreclosure for investors is a more plausible explanation for the low number of modifications than contract frictions related to securitization agreements between servicers and investors. While investors might be foreclosing when it would be socially efficient to modify, there is little evidence to suggest they are acting against their own interests when they do so. An important implication of our analysis is that policies designed to reduce foreclosures should focus on ameliorating the immediate effects of job loss and other adverse life events, rather than modifying loans to make them more “affordable” on a long-term basis.

… and I was pleased that somebody has finally observed:

Estimates of the total gains to investors from modifying rather than foreclosing can run to $180 billion, more than 1 percent of GDP. It is natural to wonder why investors are leaving so many $500 bills on the sidewalk. While contract frictions are one possible explanation, another is that the gains from loan modifications are in reality much smaller or even nonexistent from the investor’s point of view.

We provide evidence in favor of the latter explanation. First, the typical calculation purporting to show that an investor loses money when a foreclosure occurs does not capture all relevant aspects of the problem. Investors also lose money when they modify mortgages for borrowers who would have repaid anyway, especially if modifications are done en masse, as proponents insist they should be. Moreover, the calculation ignores the possibility that borrowers with modified loans will default again later, usually for the same reason they defaulted in the first place. These two problems are empirically meaningful and can easily explain why servicers eschew modification in favor of foreclosure.

Turning to the data, we find that the evidence of contract frictions is weak, at least if these frictions result from the securitization of the loan.