Issue Comments

DFN.PR.A: Rights Offering 47% Subscribed

Dividend 15 Split Corp. has announced:

that it has issued 1,181,421 Units for an aggregate of $23.3 million pursuant to the Rights offering that expired on November 16, 2009 at 4:00 p.m. (local time). The net proceeds from the subscription of Units will be used to acquire additional securities in accordance with the Company’s Investment objectives. By raising additional cash through this offering it allows the Company to capitalize on certain attractive investment opportunities that may arise over the next few months. In addition, the offering is expected to increase the trading liquidity of the Company and reduce the management expense ratio.

Both the Preferred Shares and Class A Shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”) under the symbol “DFN.PR.A” and “DFN” respectively.

It was only yesterday that I predicted negligible take-up! So much for predictions! There were 10,037,713 units outstanding on May 31, so issue size has increased by a little over 11% (barring interim retractions).

DFN.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when the rights offering was announced. DFN.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™, but is relegated to the Scraps subindex on credit concerns.

Issue Comments

Monster MFC Common Equity Issue

Nothing on their website yet, but IIROC halted MFC at 4:31pm today while they announced a $2.5-billion common share deal:

Manulife Financial launched a $2.5-billion stock sale late Wednesday as the life insurer moves to build what it’s chief executive officer described as ‘fortress levels of capital.”

A syndicate of underwriters being led by Scotia Capital and RBC Dominion Securities agreed to buy $2.5-billion in Manulife (MFC-T20.180.180.90%)common shares at a price of $19 each.

They had 1,623-million shares outstanding at the end of the third quarter, so this issue of 130-million-odd shares represents a dilution of about 8%.

It is not clear just what will be done with the money – delevering the holdco would be nice – but presumably this will cause a reappraisal of credit: S&P put them on Watch-Negative on November 6.

MFC has the following preferred shares outstanding: MFC.PR.A (OpRet), MFC.PR.B & MFC.PR.C (PerpetualDiscount), MFC.PR.D & MFC.PR.E (FixedReset). All are tracked by HIMIPref™.

Update: Press Release:

The Company has granted the underwriters an over-allotment option, exercisable in whole or in part at any time up to 30 days after closing, to purchase up to an additional $375,060,000 in common shares at the same offering price. Should the over-allotment option be exercised in full, the total gross proceeds of the offering would be $2,875,460,000.

The estimated net proceeds from the offering will be approximately $2.413 billion, after deducting the underwriting fee and before the estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from this offering for general corporate purposes, which may include contributions of capital to its insurance and other subsidiaries, potential acquisitions or other growth initiatives. The Company has not yet made a determination as to how much of the proceeds will be invested in MLI and how much will be used for other corporate purposes. Following the offering, the Company also intends to retire the approximately $1 billion outstanding indebtedness under its Credit Facility with Canadian chartered banks using other cash resources of the Company.

Update, 2009-11-19:DBRS comments:

DBRS notes that on November 18, 2009, Manulife Financial Corporation (Manulife or the Company) announced a $2.5 billion equity issue which will significantly increase the amount of available capital to its primary operating life insurance subsidiary. Manulife also intends to retire the approximately $1 billion outstanding indebtedness under its Credit Facility with banks. At the end of September 2009, there was over $1 billion in cash held at the holding company. There are no rating implications stemming from these actions.

The equity issuance is consistent with the Company’s desire to have “Fortress Capital” to support its longer term financial strength and market franchise. This capital is a cushion against potential earnings volatility associated with heightened equity and credit market exposures, which can also be deployed for growth opportunities. Adjusting for the equity issue and the retirement of the bank debt, the net new capital improves the Company’s consolidated debt ratio (including preferred shares) to 25% from a relatively high 29% at the end of September 2009, and the adjusted debt ratio is 17.2% (down from 20.7%). DBRS anticipates that growth in retained earnings at normalized levels will reduce the total debt ratio to below 25%, which is the Company’s target

Issue Comments

YPG.PR.B: Pricing Clue from Bonds

The YPG Holdings treasury department has been working overtime; there were two announcements of interest today.

First, they are redeeming the 4.65% of 2011:

Yellow Pages Group announced today that YPG Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) intends to exercise its right to redeem all of its outstanding $150 million 4.65% Medium Term Notes, Series 6, due February 28, 2011 (CUSIP No. 98424ZAF14) (the “Series 6 Notes”) on the following terms:

Redemption Date: January 15, 2010;
Redemption Price: $1,041.681 per $1,000 principal amount;
Accrued and Unpaid Interest: $17.836 per $1,000 principal amount; and
Total Redemption Price and Accrued and Unpaid Interest: $1,059.517 per $1,000 principal amount.

The redemption price has been determined in accordance with the terms of the Series 6 Notes and the provisions of the trust indenture dated April 21, 2004 governing the Series 6 Notes. Interest accrued on the Series 6 Notes up to, but excluding, the redemption date will be paid on the redemption date. The Company plans to finance the redemption through its existing commercial paper program.

That’s a very fat price for a one-year, The Pricing Supplement for the Series 6 is on SEDAR dated 2006-2-22:

YPG Holdings shall be entitled, at its option, to redeem the Series 5 Notes and/or Series 6 Notes in whole at any time or in part from time to time, by giving prior notice of not less than 30 days and not more than 60 days to the holders thereof, at the greater of the “Canada Yield Price” (as defined herein) and par, together in each case with accrued and unpaid interest to but excluding the date fixed for redemption. “Canada Yield Price” shall mean a price equal to the price of the Series 5 Notes or Series 6 Notes, as the case may be, calculated on the banking day preceding the day on which the redemption is authorized by YPG Holdings to provide a yield from the date fixed for redemption to the maturity date of the Series 5 Notes or Series 6 Notes to be redeemed, as the case may be, equal to the “Government of Canada Yield” plus 0.50% in the case of the Series 5 Notes or the “Government of Canada Yield” plus 0.16% in the case of the Series 6 Notes.

Of particular interest to YPG.PR.B holders is news of their issue of 10-year bonds at 7.75%:

YPG Holdings sold C$300 million ($286 million) of 10-year medium term notes, according to a term sheet seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

The 7.75 percent notes, due March 2, 2010, were priced at C$100.00 to yield 7.753 percent, or 432.5 basis points over the Canadian government benchmark, the term sheet said.

The bookrunners of the sale were investment dealer arms of Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Nova Scotia and Bank of Montreal.

The reported due date of 2010-3-2 is a typographical error. I am advised it’s really 2020-3-2.

I noted in July that a ten-year issue would increase confidence and now they’ve done it!

YPG.PR.B closed last night at 17.56-60 to yield 11.09-05%; it is retractible 2017-6-30 at 25.00, so it has a term of about 7.5 years. There may be some who argue that the seniority difference justifies a 335bp spread to bonds, but I’m not one of them!

YPG is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the “Scraps” index on credit concerns. The MAPF Performance Report for October 2009 disclosed a position in YPG.PR.B.

Update, 2009-11-21: I should have linked to the post about the YPG.PR.A & YPG.PR.B Issuer Bid and its reality.

Regulation

OSFI: Supervision, Yes; Micromanagement, No

Julie Dickson, Superintendent of Financial Institutions, has made a speach at the Women in Capital Markets Distinguished Speakers Luncheon in which she made some very sensible remarks about a new micromanagement policy implemented by the UK’s Financial Services Authority:

A recent announcement by the UK’s FSA illustrates the importance of this issue and the divergent approaches internationally. The FSA has announced4 that it will be interviewing all proposed new employees for senior positions that will be performing Significant Influence Functions (SIF) at financial institutions in the UK.

The key purpose of the interview is to assess the candidate’s fitness and propriety, including their competence and capability to perform the role in question. The interview takes place at the FSA’s offices and normally lasts about 90 minutes.

The FSA has said that it is important for institutions to ensure that the person to be interviewed is well prepared and has an adequate understanding of its business model and the sector in which it operates so the FSA can more easily determine whether the person is fit and proper. The institution needs to engage the FSA early (when there is a short list, not when a preferred candidate has been identified), and should include supporting recruitment documentation when an application is made (e.g., a “head-hunter’s” report). In the past year, the FSA has conducted 172 interviews and rejected 18 people.

Incredible. The footnote (well done!) provides the link to the notice of the new FSA policy.

Ms. Dickson quite properly expresses grave reservations about the policy:

But, in considering the new FSA approach, we have asked ourselves whether, in the ordinary course, it is appropriate for the regulator to be involved in the actual selection of the people who hold senior positions in financial institutions, or whether such action clearly resides with the institution, and whether a requirement for regulatory “approval” crosses a line.

We also worry about the potential for unintended consequences in this approach. Will the regulator have qualms about intervening if approved candidates perform poorly?

Indeed. I suggest that the most important management issue related to bank regulation is the potential for regulatory capture – in which regulators and regulatees form a nice cozy little group-think club – which can at worst lead to revolving door regulation with good little regulators getting very nice jobs from the regulatees after they’ve finished putting in their time.

The FSA’s policy tilts the balance of probability up near the top on the regulatory capture scale.

I don’t think there’s a right answer for that. “Gardening Leave” after leaving the regulator might help a little, as might higher pay and increased prestiege for regulatory positions (to encourage the idea that regulation is what you to cap an illustrious career, rather than start or assist one), but ultimately it all depends on the character of the group at the top of the pyramid – and you can’t legislate character.

On a related note, a paper by former OSFI boss John Palmer (also footnoted in the text of Ms. Dickson’s speech – brava!) Reforming Financial Regulation and Supervision: Going Back to Basics notes:

Another observation from interactions with a variety of regulatory agencies over many years is that the senior people in such agencies often have a weak understanding of financial institutions, what drives their behaviours and the way they respond to regulatory and supervisory initiatives. This has often led to insufficient scepticism of financial sector activities and their underlying motivations. Factors contributing to this have included:

  • • Executives and staff within supervisory agencies who have little or no direct financial sector experience, including a growing number of lawyers in some agencies;
  • • Under-resourcing of supervisory agencies, making it difficult to recruit/retain experienced qualified staff and to maintain robust on-site examination cycles;
  • • Insufficient numbers of product and risk specialists in supervisory agencies and/or ineffective use of such specialists by the senior management of such agencies.

It’s a problem, and is a problem for any regulator. Too many people with industry background increases the chance of capture; too few and you don’t know what you’re doing.

All I can suggest is that Canada seek to emulate some of the US approach: there are a lot of academics at various universities who, although not usually directly employed by the industry, have privileged access throughout their careers and build up quite an impressive body of knowledge. There’s not much of that in Canada, although I have previously referenced an essay by Jeffrey MacIntosh of the UofT Faculty of Law (and a director of Pure Trading) on Pegged Orders. Canadian regulation could be improved by the endowment of professorships at the universities who would provide a critique of regulation and – if they build up a respectable name for themselves – supply a pool of qualified high level personnel.

And, of course, sunshine is the best disinfectant. OSFI must publish more of its internal – and, ideally, external commissioned – research so that investors can decide for themselves where the regulatory flaws might be. That is an integral support of the third pillar.

Contingent Capital

BoE's Tucker Supports Contingent Capital, Love, Peace & Granola

Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor, Financial Stability at the Bank of England, has delivered a speech to the SUERF, CEPS & Belgian Financial Forum Conference: Crisis Management at the Cross‐Road, Brussels containing a rather surprising rationale for investment in Contingent Capital:

Almost no amount of capital is enough if things are bad enough. Which is why contingent capital might potentially be an important element in banks’ recovery plans, as the Governor set out recently in Edinburgh.

This would not be the kind of hybrid capital that mushroomed in the decade or so leading up to the crisis. The familiar types of subordinated debt can absorb losses only if a bank is put into liquidation, and so really has no place in regulatory capital requirements as we cannot rely on liquidation as the only resolution tool. It has been a faultline in the design of the financial system as a whole that banks issued securities that counted as capital for regulatory purposes, and on which they could therefore leverage up, but with institutional investors treating them as very low risk investments backing household pension and annuity savings.

By contrast, contingent capital would be debt that converted into common, loss-absorbing equity if a bank hit turbulence. It is, in effect, a form of catastrophe insurance provided by the private sector.

Why should long-term savings institutions and asset managers be prepared to provide such insurance? One possible reason is that if enough of them were to do so for enough banks, it might well help to protect the value of their investment portfolios more generally. If ever it needed to be demonstrated,the current crisis has surely put it beyond doubt – not only for our generation but for the next one too – that serious distress in the banking system deepens an economic downturn and so impairs pretty well all asset values. By taking a hit in one part of their portfolio by providing equity protection to banks, institutions might well be able to support the value of their investments more widely. And the trigger for conversion from debt into equity could be at a margin of comfort away from true catastrophe; say, a percentage point or so above the minimum regulatory capital ratio.

Of course, this would entail a structural shift over time in investment portfolios. But the system might be able to manage that adjustment. After all, it managed the all together less desirable adjustment to the development of the existing hybrid capital markets. But demand for contingent capital is, inevitably, uncertain at this stage. As are the terms on which it will be provided. We welcome the growing private sector focus on this.

That has to be the craziest rationale I’ve seen yet for investment.

Contingent Capital will succeed only if it designed so that its risk/reward profile makes it sufficently attractive that investors include it in their portfolio in order to make money – some investors, some of the time, for some purposes.

To suggest that it be held in order to make the bond allocation of the portfolio be more bond-like – which is what I think he’s saying – is ludicrous.

Assiduous Readers will by now be sick of hearing this, but I thoroughly dislike the idea of making the trigger dependent upon regulatory capital ratios; this makes the investor – and, to some extent, the bank – hostage to future unknown changes in regulation. It may also make the regulator hostage to the market, if they want to make a change but have to consider the effect on triggering conversion. Making the trigger dependent upon the price of the common – if the common declines by 50% from its price on the contingent capital’s issue date, for instance – will provide a market-based conversion trigger that can be hedged or synthesized on the options market in a familiar and reproducible manner.

Market Action

November 17, 2009

Patric Edspar is now running the investment banking unit of Citadel Investment Group; there are two reasons that the Bloomberg story is instructive. The first is the mere existence of an investment banking unit at a hedge fund; this is good for the financial system and bad for the regulators. The second is his nickname “Juggernaut” and its origins:

People who know Edsparr describe him as outspoken, with a forceful personality. He earned the nickname “juggernaut” during his first job at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., where one of his tasks in the research unit was to collect daily price data from senior traders, one of the people said. Most of his predecessors failed because they were too intimidated to interrupt the traders, who would shout at them. Edsparr would stand behind them, often for up to two hours, until they gave him the data.

This is indicative of horrible management practices that are endemic in the industry. Anyone with a brain doesn’t hire a guy with three degrees to stand behind a trader for two hours begging for information. A well run firm will decide whether or not information transfer needs to take place and if it does, transfer it. As well, a well run firm does not permit any of its employees to treat other employees like that – as I recall, that was one of the major reasons why RT Capital blew up.

William C Dudley of FRBNY made a speech at the Center for Economic Policy Studies (CEPS) Symposium. Nothing particularly new, but I was very pleased to see him note that all these wonderful stabilizing ideas have a cost:

Higher capital requirements work to reduce the risk of liquidity runs, but potentially at the cost of making the process of financial intermediation much more expensive. In particular, a requirement that firms must hold more capital increases intermediation costs. Moreover, banks may respond to higher capital requirements by taking on greater risk. If an increase in risk-taking were to occur, the movement of the probability distribution to the right in Figure 2 might be offset by an increase in the degree of dispersion. Thus, higher capital requirements might not necessarily be sufficient to push all of the probability distribution above zero.

Second, regulators could require greater liquidity buffers. These buffers would help protect the firm against having to liquidate assets under duress, and would therefore help prevent the probability distribution from sliding left toward the zero line in Figure 2. But there is a cost to the firm from holding greater liquidity buffers in terms of lower returns on capital. So, requiring greater liquidity buffers would also tend to drive up intermediation costs. And, just as in the case of higher capital requirements, banks could respond by taking greater risks.

It doesn’t happen very often, but occasionally there’s a glimmer of sense in the world:

The U.K. government will oppose a European Union plan to impose the same pay restrictions on hedge-fund managers and private-equity firms that it proposed for bankers, the Treasury said.

The EU last week added the pay rules to alternative investment fund legislation that under review in the European Council and European Parliament. It suggests that senior managers defer a minimum of 40 percent of bonuses for at least three years and a “substantial amount” is paid in shares.

A spokesman for the Treasury said the last-minute addition to the rules failed to properly distinguish between funds and banks. He said regulation should be proportionate to the risk funds pose to the financial system. Hedge funds don’t take retail deposits and haven’t required bailouts despite a number of failures, the Treasury said.

Still no word on the results of the DFN / DFN.PR.A Rights Issue. The unit value was 18.98 on November 13, compared with the exercise price of 19.75, so success seems a little dubious … but there’s a twist: DFN closed at 12.51 on the announcement date, October 16, and stayed above $10 for the next two weeks, trading about 350,000 shares in the interim. One strategy might have been to short the hell out of the capital units (which were well above NAV at the time), aiming to replace with either a subscription to the rights or taking the chance. Still, I’ll bet a nickel that exercise was negligible.

A good solid day for preferreds, with PerpetualDiscounts up 15bp and FixedResets gaining 13bp. Volume continued to be relatively light, without much volatility.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0661 % 1,497.8
FixedFloater 6.02 % 4.13 % 43,603 18.64 1 -0.7688 % 2,588.8
Floater 2.60 % 3.03 % 93,584 19.60 3 -0.0661 % 1,871.2
OpRet 4.81 % -5.08 % 119,351 0.09 14 -0.0137 % 2,304.5
SplitShare 6.34 % 6.35 % 335,257 3.88 2 -0.0219 % 2,085.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0137 % 2,107.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.92 % 5.57 % 125,266 2.41 4 -0.3478 % 1,856.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.88 % 5.97 % 184,386 13.96 70 0.1485 % 1,764.7
FixedReset 5.47 % 3.95 % 387,638 3.94 41 0.1300 % 2,134.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-17
Maturity Price : 19.34
Evaluated at bid price : 19.34
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-17
Maturity Price : 24.49
Evaluated at bid price : 24.72
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
TRI.PR.B Floater -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-17
Maturity Price : 19.40
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 2.04 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-17
Maturity Price : 22.44
Evaluated at bid price : 23.05
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
BAM.PR.O OpRet 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.02
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-17
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
GWO.PR.X OpRet 464,383 Desjardins crossed 388,400 at 26.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.67
Evaluated at bid price : 26.12
Bid-YTW : 3.47 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 120,730 Nesbitt crossed 120,000 at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-17
Maturity Price : 24.59
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 73,415 RBC crossed 50,000 at 25.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.63
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 64,143 Nesbitt crossed 42,100 at 20.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-17
Maturity Price : 20.21
Evaluated at bid price : 20.21
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
PWF.PR.M FixedReset 48,170 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 30,000 and 15,000, both at 27.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.06
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 43,170 RBC crossed 15,000 at 17.55.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-17
Maturity Price : 17.54
Evaluated at bid price : 17.54
Bid-YTW : 6.90 %
There were 31 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Regulatory Capital

SLA SLEECS: 5.863%+340

Sun Life has announced:

that Sun Life Capital Trust II, a trust established by Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada (“SLA”), will issue in Canada $500 million principal amount of Sun Life ExchangEable Capital Securities Series 2009-1 due December 31, 2108 (“SLEECS Series 2009-1”) under a final prospectus that it intends to file with the Canadian securities regulators as soon as possible. The SLEECS Series 2009-1 are expected to qualify as regulatory capital of SLA. The net proceeds of the issue will be used by SLA for general corporate purposes, including investments in subsidiaries.

Interest on the SLEECS Series 2009-1 will be payable semi-annually. The interest rate on the SLEECS Series 2009-1 from the date of issue to but excluding December 31, 2019 will be 5.863% per annum. On that date and thereafter on each fifth anniversary of that date, the interest rate on the SLEECS Series 2009-1 for the ensuing five years will be reset at a rate equal to 3.40% above the then-yield on a Government of Canada bond having a term to maturity of five years.

As described further in the prospectus, the SLEECS Series 2009-1 may in certain circumstances be automatically exchanged for a series of SLA preferred shares, and in certain other circumstances a series of SLA preferred shares may be issued in lieu of interest payable on the SLEECS Series 2009-1.

On or after December 31, 2014, subject to certain conditions, the SLEECS Series 2009-1 may be redeemed in whole or in part at the option of Sun Life Capital Trust II.

The issue of SLEECS Series 2009-1 is underwritten by a syndicate co-led by Scotia Capital Inc. and RBC Dominion Securities Inc., and is expected to close on November 20, 2009.

Note that these are issued at the level of SLA, the OpCo, which is intrinsically a better credit than SLF (the holdco), and in times of trouble they will convert to SLA prefs. DBRS rates existing SLEECS at A(high), the same as SLF sub-debt.

The following is from the preliminary prospectus:

From the Closing Date to but excluding •, 2019, the interest rate on the SLEECS will be fixed at •% per annum. Assuming the SLEECS are issued on •, 2009, the first interest payment due on the SLEECS on •, 2009 will be $• per $1,000 principal amount of SLEECS. Each interest payment on the SLEECS after the first interest payment (subject to the reset of the interest rate from and after •, 2019) will be in the amount of $• per $1,000 principal amount of SLEECS. Starting on •, 2019, and on every 5th anniversary of such date thereafter until •, 2104 (each such date, an “Interest Reset Date”), the interest rate on the SLEECS will be reset at an interest rate per annum equal to the Government of Canada Yield plus •%. The SLEECS will mature on •, 2108

On or after •, 2014, the Trust may, at its option, with the prior approval of the Superintendent, on giving not more than 60 nor less than 30 days’ notice to the holders of the SLEECS, redeem the SLEECS, in whole or in part. The redemption price per $1,000 principal amount of SLEECS redeemed on any day that is not an Interest Reset Date will be equal to the greater of par and the Canada Yield Price, and the redemption price per $1,000 principal amount of SLEECS redeemed on any Interest Reset Date will be par, together in either case with accrued and unpaid interest to but excluding the date fixed for redemption, subject to any applicable withholding tax. The redemption price payable by the Trust will be paid in cash. See “Description of the Trust Securities — SLEECS—Trust Redemption Right”.

Interest Reset Date means •, 2019, and every fifth anniversary of such date thereafter until •, 2104, on which dates the interest rate on the SLEECS and the SLA Debenture will be reset as described in this prospectus.

In bad times, the SLEECS convert to SLA preferred shares paying 30-Year Canadas + •

The SLF sub-debt, 5.4 of pretend-2037, are quoted by Perimeter to yield 6.24% (which will almost certainly assume a call at par in 2037, but I haven’t checked that), while the ENB 7.22 of 2030 are quoted at 5.73. … so the SLEECS seem kind of expensive to me. However, they will be quoted, traded and indexed as pretend-ten-years, and if anything goes wrong, who cares?

Interesting External Papers

TIPS: GAO vs. TBAC

The United States Government Accountability Office released a September report to Treasury, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Should Play a Heightened Role in Addressing Debt Management Challenges:

Treasury faces two near-term challenges in managing the growing government debt: the rise in total outstanding debt and the shortening of the average maturity of the debt profile.3 Treasury’s total outstanding debt increased by $2.3 trillion (25 percent increase in federal debt) since the onset of the economic recession in December 2007. In actions Treasury described as in accordance with normal operating procedures, Treasury increased short-term borrowing to address its massive and immediate borrowing needs. As a result, the average maturity of Treasury’s debt decreased as the percentage of marketable debt maturing within 1 year increased from 35.6 percent to 41.1 percent between September 2007 and June 2009.


Click for big

Click for big.

Another ex-ante study, noted that if the TIPS program were as liquid as the market for off-the-run nominal Treasuries, Treasury would have realized total cost savings from the TIPS program of $22 billion to $32 billion. Over the short run, economists recognize that an assessment of TIPS program’s relative costs depends on whether Treasury or the investor is the beneficiary from differences in expected and actual inflation. The time horizon of the analysis affects the results since, over the long run, the average amount by which actual inflation exceeds expected inflation will roughly equal the average amount when the opposite is true.

23William C. Dudley, Jennifer Roush, and Michelle Steinberg Ezer, “The Case for TIPS: An Examination of the Costs and Benefits,” FRBNY Economic Policy Review (July 2009); and Dean Croushore, “An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts From Surveys Using Real-Time Data,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Papers (December 2008).

The next part is interesting … I didn’t know that!

In addition, technical market factors closely linked to liquidity effects appear to have contributed to the decline in breakeven inflation rates. Lehman Brothers owned TIPS as part of repo trades or posted TIPS as counterparty collateral. Because of Lehman’s bankruptcy, the court and its counterparty needed to sell these TIPS, which created a flood of TIPS on the market. There appeared to be few buyers and distressed market makers were unwilling to take positions in these TIPS. As a result, the TIPS yields rose sharply.

The conclusion is:

GAO recommends that, in the context of projected sustained increases in federal debt, the Secretary of the Treasury take steps to increase TIPS liquidity and reduce their cost to Treasury: increase issuance, issue longer-dated maturities, and conduct more frequent auctions. Also, the Secretary should continually review the appropriate composition of the TIPS program and consider: the impact of Treasury’s public statements and TIPS issuance on TIPS liquidity, how different analytical perspectives are valuable for evaluating cost, how TIPS can diversify Treasury’s investor base, and how TIPS impact the cost of nominal securities.

However, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee stated in its November 4th Report:

There was lively debate among the Committee members regarding the GAO Report published September 2009 entitled “Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Should Play a Heightened Role in Addressing Debt Management Challenges.” Committee members could not come to broad agreement on the findings of the report. While Committee members acknowledged the benefits of TIPS as a debt management tool, some members reiterated their higher cost to date versus nominal Treasury securities.

So take your choice.

I have previously highlighted the slides for the TBAC presentation.

Market Action

November 16, 2009

Take that! How long will it be before official Chinese pronouncements include the phrase ‘Helicopter Ben’?

China’s banking regulation chief joined Hong Kong’s leader in blaming the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy for fueling speculative capital flows that may spur asset-price inflation.

“The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government’s indication that, in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation,” Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in Beijing yesterday.

“I’m scared and leaders should look out,” [Chief Executive of Hong Kong Donald] Tsang said in Singapore Nov. 13. “America is doing exactly what Japan did last time,” he said, adding that Japan’s zero interest rate policy contributed to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and U.S. mortgage meltdown.

Bernanke himself points out that bubbles are a little easier to spot in hindsight:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said it’s “not obvious” that asset prices in the U.S. are out of line with underlying values after a 64 percent jump in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from its March low.

“It is inherently extraordinarily difficult to know whether an asset’s price is in line with its fundamental value,” he said today in response to audience questions after a speech in New York. “It’s not obvious to me in any case that there’s any large misalignments currently in the U.S. financial system.”

“The best approach here if at all possible is to use supervisory and regulatory methods to restrain undue risk-taking and to make sure the system is resilient in case an asset-price bubble bursts in the future,” Bernanke said.

His prescription is entirely sensible and will therefore be ignored.

DBRS has published an amusing letter to the SEC:

The Commission initially put these proposals out for comment last year. With very few exceptions, the proposals elicited an overwhelmingly negative response from the public commenters, including DBRS. The Commission recently adopted the few proposed rule changes that the public found unobjectionable. However, instead of heeding the cogent arguments the commenters put forth regarding the rest of the proposals, the Commission has asked for more comments, hoping this time to elicit a different response.

Footnote: For example, with regard to the proposed elimination of NRSRO references from Regulation M, the Commission says, “In light of the uniform opposition in the comment letters and the Commission’s remaining concern regarding the undue influence of NRSRO ratings, the Commission is seeking additional comment.” Re-proposing Release, at 6, 74 Fed. Reg. at 52375.

No word yet on the DFN / DFN.PR.A Rights Issue. Maybe tomorrow.

The preferred share market continued its rally today, with PerpetualDiscounts up 8bp and FixedResets gaining 17bp. Not much price volatility, volume was lukewarm.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.8437 % 1,498.8
FixedFloater 5.97 % 4.09 % 43,737 18.69 1 0.8864 % 2,608.9
Floater 2.60 % 3.05 % 94,019 19.56 3 0.8437 % 1,872.4
OpRet 4.81 % -4.83 % 120,693 0.09 14 -0.0628 % 2,304.8
SplitShare 6.34 % 6.37 % 340,439 3.88 2 0.0875 % 2,085.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0628 % 2,107.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.90 % 5.57 % 126,100 1.14 4 0.2990 % 1,863.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.89 % 5.95 % 183,829 13.98 70 0.0769 % 1,762.1
FixedReset 5.48 % 3.97 % 393,460 3.94 41 0.1655 % 2,131.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.93
Evaluated at bid price : 18.93
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
IGM.PR.A OpRet -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2009-12-16
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.61
Bid-YTW : -13.64 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.77
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
SLF.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-16
Maturity Price : 19.11
Evaluated at bid price : 19.11
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-16
Maturity Price : 12.80
Evaluated at bid price : 12.80
Bid-YTW : 3.10 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-16
Maturity Price : 13.01
Evaluated at bid price : 13.01
Bid-YTW : 3.05 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.M FixedReset 269,711 Nesbitt crossed 230,000 at 27.00; RBC crossed 35,800 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.95
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
IGM.PR.A OpRet 146,619 TD crossed 131,400 at 26.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2009-12-16
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.61
Bid-YTW : -13.64 %
GWO.PR.J FixedReset 56,250 RBC crossed 50,000 at 27.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.99
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 53,329 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
CM.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 40,610 RBC crossed 20,000 at 19.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-16
Maturity Price : 19.12
Evaluated at bid price : 19.12
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 38,858 Desjardins crossed 31,900 at 17.86.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.77
Evaluated at bid price : 17.77
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
There were 30 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
PrefLetter

November Edition of PrefLetter Released!

The November, 2009, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

The November edition contains an appendix examining the rise of Alternative Trading Systems in Canada and discusses two order types that may become possible with increased automation and competition.

As previously announced, PrefLetter is now available to residents of Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba, as well as Ontario and to entities registered with the Quebec Securities Commission.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the November, 2009, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the December, 2009, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close December 11 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on December 14.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

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