PrefBlog

I’ve been getting a few inquiries regarding what the hell is going on in the Canadian preferred share lately – here’s my best answer:

I ascribe the downturn to uncertainty.

Perpetual Discounts now yield 5.78%, equivalent to 7.51% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long-Term corporate bonds now yield a little over 4.10%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 340bp, an enormous widening from the 315bp reported on September 26 that has been achieved entirely through the increase in PerpetualDiscount yields – the long term corporate bond yield has not changed noticeably.

At the same time, we’re seeing comparable weakness in FixedResets, which really should stay relatively stable regardless of the overall level of interest rates , but which should be expected to continue to recover from the lows of 2014-16 with an increase in yields.

It is possible that this is being driven by funds like CPD – as units are created and destroyed, individual issues are bought and sold in lockstep, regardless of their characteristics – but I’m not sure that this is the case; and while this would explain the correlation between the two sub-classes, it wouldn’t explain why the units are being created and destroyed in the first place.

It seems to me that investors in both subsectors are fearing the worst, regardless of the fact that their worst fears are of opposite environments. I suggest that this may be due to uncertainties regarding the global economy; we’re seeing the IMF cut its growth forecasts due to trade concerns; Trump trying to pick a fight with the Fed (I think this is probably because he wants some political cover in case a US slowdown does occur to a noticeable degree); and, of course, the approaching US mid-term elections.

Due to the retail nature of preferred share investors, the sector is prone to episodes like this, in which the market behaves irrationally for a while until people take a deep breath and look at the comparable after-tax yields. I just wish there was some way of predicting the outbreak and duration of such events!

My second-best answer (because it’s rather dated, but is still generally applicable) is Shut Up and Clip Your Coupons! I mean, what else are you going to put your money into that will pay such a high rate of after-tax income while providing first-loss protection?

In the equity markets today:

All sectors on the TSX lost ground on Monday, led by cannabis-heavy health care which was down more than 10 per cent. Aphria Inc. closed down 17.35 per cent, Canopy Growth Corp. 14.12 per cent and Aurora Cannabis 16.10 per cent.

Since Canada legalized recreational marijuana use Oct. 17, pot stocks have lost up to about 45 per cent of their value.

The energy sector closed off more than three cent as the price of crude oil continued to fall as investors remained concerned about slowing global demand led by weakness in China
…
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 245.39 to 24,442.92. The S&P 500 index was off 17.44 points to 2,641.25, while the Nasdaq composite lost 116.92 points to 7,050.29.

U.S. markets sustained sharp losses late in the day on reports that Trump is planning new tariffs on all remaining imports from China if the two sides don’t make progress in trade talks next month.

As an aside, I don’t agree with Andrew Jackson (Adjunct Research Professor in the Institute of Political Economy at Carleton University, and senior policy adviser to the Broadbent Institute) very often – but sometimes he has things right:

Further, cuts to the corporate-tax rate are costly since most of the benefit goes to existing firms making profits from past investments, rather than to new firms or those thinking about expansion. A cut in the tax rate is also irrelevant to companies earning so-called rents or above-average profits compared to the international norm. For example, during the resource-boom companies would have invested in the oil sands even if the corporate-tax rate had been much higher, since expected profits were very high.

Canadian banks, utilities, airlines, railways, retailers and cultural industries among others all have to operate mainly in Canada to serve the Canadian market, so they are not very responsive to changes in tax rates compared to other countries.

If the politicians want to make Canada more competitive, they will break up the banks. Let them bank; don’t let them do much else. The enormous size of the heavily protected Canadian banking sector soaks up talent, soaks up capital, soaks up real-estate and soaks up political attention – for what? Second-rate (or, at best, plain vanilla) products made very cheaply as a consequence of scale and sold on the basis of the brand name. That not the basis of a competitive economy – that’s the basis of rentier economy, which is what we got.

I’ve rearranged my data collection routines in an effort that will eventually improve the attribution analysis I’ve been working on. Here are some spot results that some might find of interest:

Note that issues may be relegated to “Scraps” on either credit or volume concerns.

All of which is by way of introducing a snapshot of today’s preferred share market action:

Click for Big

It looks like the situation at Fortress is unravelling:

Senior lenders have moved to seize control of 13 real estate development projects co-ordinated by Fortress Real Developments Inc. as the loans mature or fall into default.

A new report from FAAN Mortgage Administrators Inc., a court-appointed receiver that took control of Fortress’s affiliated mortgage brokerage firm, says 24 of the 45 syndicated mortgage loans it is overseeing have matured but the principal has not been repaid, while 13 projects are now facing enforcement actions from senior lenders who rank first on any prospective claim.

The Globe, in the apparent belief that if it ignores the Internet it will go away, did not supply hyperlinks to the source material, but the FAAN website contains many links, including one to the second report of the Trustee dated October 23, 2018. It makes pretty sad reading, f’rinstance:

90. In addition to projects facing enforcement actions by senior lenders, the Trustee faces challenges to recoveries on the syndicated mortgage loan made to 2309918 Ontario Inc. (“Eden Borrower”). The Eden Borrower is indebted to BDMC in respect of loans made for a real estate development project in King City, Ontario, consisting of approximately 28 residential homes (“Eden Project”). These homes have been sold and the senior loans have been discharged. The mortgages in favour of BDMC have not been discharged and, to date, no payments of the sums secured by BDMC’s mortgages have been repaid. The Investors are owed in excess of $7 million (including accrued interest) in respect of the Eden Project.

91. As late as June 2018, Fortress was advising participants who attend certain periodic update conference calls hosted by Fortress that the syndicated mortgage loan secured on the Eden Project would be repaid in full within a matter of months.

92. In early July, 2018, the Trustee was advised by PACE Developments Inc. (“PACE”), the developer on the Eden Project, on behalf of the Eden Borrower, that there would be no recovery to Investors on the Eden Project, notwithstanding the communications by Fortress of full payment expressed weeks earlier. PACE advised that certain cost overruns not previously accounted for had absorbed the over $7 million payable to Investors. In light of the very concerning representations made to the Trustee and others, the Trustee engaged with PACE to obtain the financial information related to the Eden Project to undertake a detailed review of the sources and uses of funds advanced throughout the Eden Project.

93. Since July, 2018, the Trustee faced increasing pressure from representatives of the Eden Borrower, PACE and CDCM to discharge BDMC’s security on all of the homes to permit buyers to own the properties free and clear of any pre-existing security.

94. The Eden Borrower and PACE continued to insist that the Trustee discharge BDMC’s security without repayment of any of the amounts owing. When the Trustee refused to do so, the Eden Borrower threatened to bring legal action against the Trustee and also appears to have advised certain of the homeowners to seek a remedy against the Trustee.

95. As a result, on September 12, 2018, the Trustee made demand against the Eden Borrower and PACE. In addition to demanding repayment of the full amount owed to Investors and 29 professional fees incurred to the date of the letter, the Trustee demanded additional documents to explain the significant change in the Eden Borrower’s financial position over such a short timeframe.

96. While PACE has responded to the Trustee’s requests for documents, the Trustee is continuing to investigate the cause of the significant change in forecast recoveries to the Investors while pursuing remedies against the Eden Borrower.

97. Since the issuance of the demand letter on September 12, 2018, the Trustee followed up in writing seeking advice as to when repayment would be made. As no response has been received, the Trustee delivered a demand letter and a 244 Notice on October 19, 2018.

Meanwhile, in the Canadian preferred share market:

Click for Big

TXPR hit a new 52-week low of 688.16 and closed down 88bp; CPD touched a new 52-week low of 13.63 and closed down 115bp at 13.72 on very heavy volume of 571,500 shares (about 14 times yesterday’s volume and a little under 5 times the highest volume of the past thirty days); and ZPR set a new 52-week low of 11.36, closing at 11.36, down 130bp on the day on volume of almost 183,000 shares (about double yesterday’s volume and the highest of the past thirty days). All “new lows” are based on the price index, not the total return index, and therefore do not account for dividend receipts.

TXPR continued its streak of hitting new 52-week lows, this time touching 694.69 compared to the prior lowest level of 694.81. Note that this is the price index, which ignores the effect of dividend receipts.

CPD also hit a low, touching 13.83 compared to the prior level of 13.93 … again ignoring the effect of dividend receipts.

Equities got creamed today:

Stocks have fallen for 13 of the past 15 trading days, including a 3.3 percent drop on Oct. 10 that was the market’s worst fall in eight months. The S.&P. 500 is now down more than 0.6 percent for the year.
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The S.&P. 500 communications services sector — which includes tech giants like Google and Facebook — led the broad market lower.

• •The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index dropped more than 4.4 percent, as shares in the tech heavyweights Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook all fell more than 5 percent.
• •Netflix stock fell more than 9 percent, after media reports said that Apple planned to announce a subscription television service that would go head-to-head with Amazon and Netflix.
• •Homebuilding stocks slumped again. The S.&P. 500 homebuilding index dropped 3 percent after new economic data showed home sales slumped for the fourth straight month. The sector has been battered this year, falling more than 36 percent, as rising mortgage rates showed signs of slowing the sector.

TXPR touched a new 52-week low today, just like yesterday. Note that that’s the price index being referred to, which does not account for the value of dividends received. CPD volume returned to high-ish, but reasonably normal levels.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.76%, equivalent to 7.49% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.15%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 335bp, a significant widening from the 325bp reported October 17.

Another grim day for the Canadian preferred shares market. TXPR touched a new 52 Week low of 695.25 (note that this is the price index, not the total return index; saying that this is a 52-week low ignores interim dividends paid), while, unsurprisingly, CPD did the same, touching a new 52 Week low of 13.93 (with a similar not about dividends!). Volume in CPD was valued at $1.7-million the highest in the past month, while the calculated volume of TXPR was on the high side for the past month, but only a bit more than half the October 19 value.