Month: September 2007

Data Changes

BCE.PR.A / BCE.PR.B Adjusted on HIMIPref™

As noted previously, about half of the BCE.PR.A [fixed/reset] issue outstanding has been converted into BCE.PR.B [ratchet].

These changes have now been reflected on HIMIPref™

The securityCode for BCE.PR.A has been changed from A39007 to A39017 and a reorgDataEntry input to reflect the change of terms.

A preIssue security code for BCE.PR.B has been made effective for the period 2007-8-8 to 2007-8-28; this code is P10001.

BCE.PR.B has been added to the database as of 2007-8-28, security code A39018, and a reorgDataEntry processed to reflect the preIssueSettlement of the issue.

MAPF

MAPF Portfolio Composition : August 31, 2007

Not a lot of change in the sectoral composition of the fund’s holdings since the July 31, 2007 analysis. There is an increased allocation (up 6%) to PerpetualDiscount issues, a decreased amount (down 13%) to PerpetualPremium and an increase (+12%) in cash. As always, these changes do not imply a change in view of overall future market performance, but are the result of tactical trades which aim to take advantage of pricing inefficiencies between issues.

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2007-8-31
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 36% 4.78% 5.07
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 13% 5.19% 4.11
PerpetualDiscount 42% 5.02% 15.49
Scraps 0% N/A N/A
Cash 11% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 4.55% 8.40
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.), and readers may make their own adjustments to reflect interest. MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

The cash is not held in the portfolio for any kind of market-timing reason – I have bids in the marketplace to get it invested … as soon as someone gets desperate to unload their holdings! 

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2007-8-31
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 27%
Pfd-1(low) 13%
Pfd-2(high) 0%
Pfd-2 35%
Pfd-2(low) 15%
Cash 11%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding

Credit quality of the portfolio has improved a little since last month and remains within normal bounds. The variances in credit be constant as opportunistic trades are executed.

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2007-7-31
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 1%
$50,000 – $100,000 24%
$100,000 – $200,000 32%
$200,000 – $300,000 13%
>$300,000 21%
Cash 11%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding

Liquidity has increased over the month.

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available on the fund’s web page. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission) and those who subscribe for $150,000+. Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

A discussion of August’s performance is available here.

MAPF

MAPF Performance : August, 2007

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund has been valued for August, 2007, month-end. The unit value is $9.3309. Returns over various periods are:

MAPF Returns to August 31, 2007
One Month -0.34%
Three Months +0.77%
One Year +3.37%
Two Years (annualized) +4.63%
Three Years (annualized) +5.26%
Four Years (annualized) +8.32%
Five Years (annualized) +10.26%
Six Years (annualized) +9.74%

Returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not  a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund. For more information, see the fund’s main page.

The fund underperformed this month; there were two major reasons for this:

  • A position in BAM.PR.M / BAM.PR.N underperformed. What can I say? The fund bought them when they were cheap (according to me!) and they promptly declined to a level where they’re stupid-cheap (according to me!). It happens. Volume in these issues has picked up substantially since the mid-month price collapse and the price has recovered somewhat.
  • The fund has a large weighting in split-shares, which underperformed this month. The market is currently deeply discounting split shares as a class, as I noted in a post on August 28 

A disappointing month, but beating the index every single month is a difficult thing to do!  I’ll just keep grinding away and swapping issues when the odds (according to me!) are in my favour.

Claymore has published their final monthly numbers and I have derived the following table:

CPD Return, 1- & 3-month, to August 31
Date NAV Distribution Return for Sub-Period Monthly Return
May 31, 2007 19.44      
June 26 18.97 0.198800 -1.40% -1.40
June 29 18.97   0.00%
July 31, 2007 18.95   0.00% -0.11% 
August 31, 2007 19.04   +0.47% +0.47%
Quarterly Return -1.05%

It should be explicitly noted that the CPD returns are shown AFTER ALL FEES AND EXPENSES, while the MAPF numbers are shown after expenses, but before fees … so to make the numbers more comparable, take the annual fee from the fund’s web page and divide by the appropriate number to obtain the period’s fee.

So, while August’s returns were sub-par, the quarterly number still looks very good. 

Trading in August was actually very quiet (with the exception of a BAM.PR.M / BAM.PR.N swap). Volumes were low, spreads were high; I put in quite a few limit orders to try to take advantage of the high spreads, but there were only a few traders out there sufficiently desperate to trade that they were willing to accept my lousy prices. A return of volume in September will, I hope, lead to increased trading possibilities. 

The DPS.UN NAV for August 29 has been published, so we can calculate the August-ish returns for it:

DPS.UN NAV Return, August-ish 2007
Date NAV Distribution Return for period
August 1, 2007 $22.23    
August 29, 2007 $22.14 $0.00 -0.41%
Time-Weighted, August-ish +0.22%
CPD had an NAV of $18.95 on July 31 and $18.97 on August. The beginning-of-month stub period return for CPD was therefore +0.11%.CPD had a NAV of $18.94 on August 29 and $19.04 on August 31. The end-of-month stub period return for CPD was therefore +0.52%.Inclusion of these two stub periods will therefore have the net effect of increasing DPS.UN’s returns by about 0.63%; adding this to the measured returns for the  measured period results in a August-ish return for DPS.UN of +0.22%.

Now, to see the DPS.UN quarterly NAV approximate return, we refer to the calculations for June-ish and July-ish to derive:

DPS.UN NAV Returns, three-month-ish to end-August-ish, 2007
June-ish -1.33%
July-ish +1.38%
August-ish +0.22%
Three-months-ish +0.25%

So we have the same pattern: underperformance over a one-month period, but out-performance over three months.  

Note that the DPS.UN returns are net of all fees and expense, while the MAPF returns shown above are after expenses, but BEFORE FEES.

To see MAPF performance for a wide variety of periods, with comparisons to the BMO Capital Markets 50 Index (formerly the BMO-NB 50 Index), please see the fund’s main page, where there are numerous links under the heading “Performance”.

Update: Portfolio composition as of August 31 is discussed here.

Market Action

August 31, 2007

A rousing day in the markets to cap a tumultuous month!

There will be some kind of assistance – not a bailout, honest – for delinquent mortgagees:

Under Bush’s plan, the FHA during the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 would help in 80,000 more refinancings than under current programs, FHA Commissioner Brian Montgomery said in a conference call with reporters. The agency plans to help 240,000 homeowners refinance during the period, compared to about 100,000 during the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, he said. FHA intends to increase refinancings to more than 600,000 within the next three years.

In the first quarter of this year, the FHA serviced about 3 million mortgages, 12 percent of which were delinquent or in foreclosure. Nationwide, the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association reported about 44 million mortgages in existence with an overall delinquency rate of 4.8 percent.

I’ll admit, I’m not entirely sure how much difference this will make … but one can be sure that the Democrats will find some way of trumping it as the Primary and Presidential cycle continues.

At the conference at Jackson Hole, Bernanke made it clear that the Fed would give some kind of assistance – not a bail-out, honest – to the financial system:

“The Federal Reserve stands ready to take additional actions as needed to provide liquidity and promote the orderly functioning of markets,” Bernanke said. He also made clear he won’t rescue investors from bad decisions.

Bloomberg has published the full text of the speech, complete with references. The WSJ has published some reactions to the remarks. In the meantime, inflation news is also good which may provide a veneer of respectability to a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.

James Hamilton at Econbrowser has reported on the conference but, in my mind, was trumped by one of the commenters, a reader with the sobriquet “Constantine”:

If memory serves, the 1st edition of Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance came out in March 2000. The 2nd edition with expanded coverage of the housing market followed in 2005.

As soon I get word of a 3rd edition going to press, I’m going to fuckin’ liquidate everything I own.

Thanks, Constantine! It’s been a long month – I needed that.

The WSJ is reporting on the conference and has provided more detailed reviews of today’s papers: Should the Fed Target Housing; The Tension between Traditional Economics and Bubbles; and After the Mortgage Revolution the Terror – the last of which highlighting the authors’ view that:

the revolution has still been positive: “mortgage markets that are linked to capital markets are better for consumers and investors, than mortgage systems where the price and allocation of mortgages is determined by the government.”

Thank heavens … it hasn’t been often lately that I’ve seen an endorsement of the free market. I was also heartened to see that The Economist and I are in agreement:

But what look like incredibly sophisticated strategies on the surface can still be very simple at heart. Investors have been doing what banks have done over the centuries, borrowing short and lending long. Or, to put it another way, they have borrowed in liquid form and invested the proceeds in illiquid assets.

They also provide a link to what looks – at a very quick glance – to be a fascinating paper:Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity, which I may review here … sometime …

Creative destruction in the mortgage business is continuing:

Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank, agreed to buy the wholesale mortgage origination and servicing businesses of ACC Capital Holdings, operator of Ameriquest Mortgage Company and once the nation’s biggest subprime home lender.

Truly, one of the greatest pleasures in life must be access to cash in a buyers’ market!

US equities rose to the point where they were actually up on the month – which I will admit I find shocking. I’m glad, sometimes, that I’m not an equity guy. Canadian equities also rose but are down on the month.

Treasuries finished August’s wild ride with an upwards shift of 4-5 bp, but the big story is the month’s massive steepening of about 18bp.  Will it continue or reverse? Place yer bets, gents, place yer bets … the wheel spins again starting Tuesday.

Mutual funds’ retail cash flows show a move into junk bonds and a slackening of the move out of investment-grade. together with the equity data, it would appear that greed is beginning to triumph over fear!

It was another light day for preferreds – there seems to be some interest in BAM.PR.N at the current price, since it has been in the volume leaders table very often lately.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.85% 4.88% 21,583 15.81 1 +0.0000% 1,044.5
Fixed-Floater 4.98% 4.79% 112,116 15.85 8 +0.0053% 1,023.6
Floater 4.93% -0.59% 74,442 7.94 4 +0.1397% 1,038.0
Op. Retract 4.84% 3.98% 79,816 3.04 15 -0.0608% 1,024.7
Split-Share 5.08% 4.78% 93,566 3.96 15 +0.0145% 1,044.6
Interest Bearing 6.23% 6.70% 67,665 4.60 3 +0.1041% 1,040.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.51% 5.09% 92,721 5.34 24 +0.1513% 1,029.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.10% 5.13% 263,527 15.28 39 +0.2453% 975.7
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.E SoftMaturity -1.0285% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.60% based on a bid of 25.02 and a call 2011-4-30 at 25.00.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +1.0245% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.99% based on a bid of 22.68 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +1.0634% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.90% based on a bid of 22.81 and a limitMaturity.
CIU.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +1.1111% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.08% based on a bid of 22.75 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.H PerpetualPremium +1.3027% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.16% based on a bid of 26.44 and a call 2013-3-27 at 25.00
BAM.PR.K Floater +1.4226%  
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +1.5521% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.02% based on a bid of 22.90 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount +1.8519% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.99% based on a bid of 22.55 and a limitMaturity
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BAM.PR.H OpRet 41,051 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.69% based on a bid of 26.55 and a call 2008-10-30 at 25.75.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 19,850 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.99% based on a bid of 22.68 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount 15,500 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.97% based on a bid of 20.27 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount 13,205 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.91% based on a bid of 23.15 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.B Floater 12,500  

There were two other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.