PrefBlog

Astonishing! There is a continued Greek crisis:

In Athens, unions struck for the second time this week and police used tear gas to counter protesters. George Karatzaferis, who heads one of the three parties supporting interim Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, said he wouldn’t support austerity measures worked out for a rescue. He spoke hours after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin that Greece was missing deficit targets.

“What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country,” Karatzaferis, whose Laos party has 16 members in the 300-seat parliament, said in televised comments. “Clearly Greece can’t and shouldn’t do without the European Union but it could do without the German boot.”
…
“The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan,” Bertrand Benoit, a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry, said by telephone.

Assiduous Readers will be accustomed to my occasional rants about bond market structure and auction design – these are usually triggered by ignorant whining about exchange trading of bonds, but now the Fed has become involved:

The Federal Reserve secretly selected a handful of banks to bid for debt securities acquired by taxpayers in the U.S. bailout of American International Group Inc., and the rest of Wall Street is wondering what happened to the transparency the central bank said it was committed to upholding.

“The exclusivity by which the process has shut out smaller dealers is a little un-American,” said David Castillo, head of sales and trading at broker Further Lane Securities LP in San Francisco, who said he would have liked to participate. “It seems odd that if you want to get the best possible price that it wouldn’t be open to anyone who wants to put in the most competitive bid.”

After inviting more than 40 broker-dealers to take part in a series of auctions last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York asked only Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and Barclays Plc (BARC) to bid on the full $13.2 billion of bonds offered in two sales over the past month. The central bank switched to a less open process after traders blamed the regular, more public disposals for damaging prices in 2011. This week, Goldman Sachs bought $6.2 billion of bonds in an auction.
…
“The purpose should be to get the best price for the taxpayer,” said Robert Eisenbeis, a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta who’s now chief monetary economist for Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors. “Anybody knows the more bidders the better, so it’s a little hard to understand why they would essentially pick potential winners and losers. That smacks of crony capitalism.”
…
The New York Fed was criticized for damaging credit markets with the regular sales, and halted them in June after disposing of about $10 billion in face value of the assets.

It resumed the sales on Jan. 19, when it unloaded about $7 billion of assets in one block to Credit Suisse, after receiving an unsolicited bid for the securities from Goldman Sachs. Only Barclays and Bank of America were invited to also participate in that auction. Goldman Sachs won the auction for $6.2 billion of bonds this week after Credit Suisse placed an unsolicited bid for the assets. Barclays, Morgan Stanley (MS) and RBS Securities Inc. were also included in that sale. Barclays presented the second- highest offer in both auctions this year, according to a person familiar with the process.

The New York Fed didn’t announce either auction until after they closed, and said the broker-dealers it included were chosen based on the strength of previous bids. The Wall Street firms, and their clients who wished to bid on the assets, were required to sign non-disclosure agreements forbidding them from discussing the offerings. At least one investor opted not to participate for that reason.

Now, I’m not going to state that the Fed did things in the best possible way. I’m not even going to state that the auction method they chose is better than a fully public process! But I will state that calling the process “un-American” or stating that “Anybody knows the more bidders the better” is just plain pig-ignorant.

The Canadian preferred share market took a thumping today, as the very attractive GWO 5.40% Straight issue announced – and later upsized – today sucked all the money out of the market. PerpetualPremiums were down 34bp, FixedResets off 10bp and DeemedRetractibles lost 59bp. There is a very lengthy list of losers – and no winners – in the Performance Highlights table, overwhelmingly comprised of insurance DeemedRetractibles. Volume was a little on the light side.

Greece claims to have reached agreement:

“Discussions between the Greek government and the troika were successfully completed this morning,” Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos’s office said in an e-mailed statement today in Athens. “Political leaders have agreed with the result of those negotiations. Therefore there is a general agreement in the context of the new program ahead of tonight’s euro group meeting.” The statement didn’t include any details.

But PIMCO notes potential resistance of Greeks:

“It is very unlikely to lead to growth, jobs, financial stability and new investments,” El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of the world’s biggest manager of bond funds, said in a radio interview today on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “This agreement will be very difficult to sell when the principals, those who have agreed, have to go to their constituents.”

The question on my mind is still: will Greek politicians sell the deal to Greek voters? I supported the idea of a referendum when the idea was floated – very briefly! – last fall. We continue to live in interesting times.

Meanwhile, the guys with the money say “Show me!”:

European finance chiefs are set to defer ratifying a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) rescue for Greece, pressing the government in Athens to put a newly struck austerity plan into action.

“It’s up to the Greek government by concrete actions — through legislation, other actions — to convince its European partners that the second program can be made to work,” European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said today as he arrived for an emergency meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels.

And how many stories like this are we going to see?

Greek doctors are fighting a new invisible foe every day at their hospitals: a pneumonia-causing superbug that most existing antibiotics can’t kill.

The culprit is spreading through health centers already weighed down by a shortage of nurses. The hospital-acquired germ killed as many as half of people with blood cancers infected at Laiko General Hospital, a 500-bed facility in central Athens.

The drug-resistant K. pneumoniae bacteria have a genetic mutation that allows them to evade such powerful drugs as AstraZeneca Plc (AZN)’s Merrem and Johnson & Johnson’s Doribax. A 2010 survey found 49 percent of K. pneumoniae samples in Greece aren’t killed by the antibiotics of last resort, known as carbapenems, according to the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network. Many doctors have even tried colistin, a 50-year-old drug so potent that it can damage kidneys.

“We’re not used to seeing people die of an untreatable infection,” said John Rex, vice president for clinical infection at London-based AstraZeneca, which is developing a new generation of antibiotics. “That’s like something in a novel of 200 years ago.”

The Bank of Canada has provided another nail in the coffin of Efficient Market Theory:

This paper develops and estimates a model to explain the behaviour of house prices in the United States. The main finding is that over 70% of the increase in house prices relative to trend during the increase of house prices in the United States from 1995 to 2006 can be explained by a pricing mechanism where market participants are ‘Fooled by Search.’ Trading frictions, also known as search frictions, have been argued to affect asset prices, so that asset markets are constrained efficient, with shocks to liquidity causing prices to temporarily deviate from long run fundamentals. In this paper a model is proposed and estimated that combines search frictions with a behavioural assumption where market participants incorrectly believe that the efficient market theory holds. In other words, households are ‘Fooled by Search.’ Such a model is potentially fruitful because it can replicate the observation that real price growth and turnover are highly correlated at an annual frequency in the United States housing market. A linearized version of the model is estimated using standard OLS and annual data. In addition to explaining over 70% of the housing bubble in the United States, the model also predicts and estimation confirms that in regions with a low elasticity of supply, price growth should be more sensitive to turnover. Using the lens of turnover, a supply shock is identified and estimated that has been responsible for over 80% of the fall in real house prices from the peak in 2006 to 2010.

Search costs are important!

This paper examines the impact of bank consolidation on mortgage rates in order to evaluate the extent to which mortgage markets are competitive. Mortgage markets are decentralized and so rates are determined through a search and negotiation process. The primary effect of a merger therefore is to reduce the number of partners available with whom to negotiate, although it can also change the characteristics of the product, and impact the search effort of consumers. Using a Canadian merger as a case study, we find that, overall, consolidation had little effect on rates suggesting that, on average, the mortgage market is fairly competitive. However, a decomposition of the aggregate treatment effect reveals important heterogeneity in the impact of the merger. We find that consumers gathering multiple quotes are affected by the merger, while those who do not search are not. These results suggest that market power originates in large part from the presence of asymmetric search costs.

Woo-Hoo, we’re saved! The CSA is bringing in new Money Market Fund regulations:

Canadian securities regulators have slapped new rules on money market funds in a move that could push already puny yields on these investments even lower.

Under the new regulations, these funds, which typically pay investors around 1 per cent a year, will need to hold at least five per cent of their assets in cash or in securities that can easily be converted into cash within a day. In addition, they must hold at least another 15 per cent of their assets in securities that can be converted within a week.

As I have pointed out until I’m sick to bloody death of saying it, the problem is not liquidity (although that can become a factor in an extreme case, just like any other extreme case) the problem is credit quality – and these rules do absolutely nothing to improve credit quality, which requires mandatory support from the sponsor. But why would a regulator worry about what might actually work?

It was a weak day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums down 8bp, FixedResets off 12bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 20bp. Volatility was average, skewed to the downside. Volume was average.