It seems there’s another way to increase low-end salaries:
Costco Wholesale Corp. will lift its minimum wage for the first time in nine years, by a $1.50 an hour, as the labor market tightens and competitors start giving workers a raise.
The second-largest U.S. retailer will start paying at least $13-to-$13.50 an hour, up from $11.50-to-$12 an hour, the company said Thursday in a conference call with analysts. The increase will cut its earnings per share in the next three months by 1 cent, and by 2 cents in the following three quarters, the Issaquah, Washington-based company said.
Retailers are under pressure to boost wages as unemployment falls below 5 percent and 14 states have raised their minimum wage this year. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which operates the Sam’s Club warehouse-style chain, a Costco competitor, lifted its pay floor to $10 an hour this year and gave an increase to more than 1 million workers. Costco didn’t say how many of its 117,000 employees would get a raise.
But some might not sign up with Costco – because the fearmongers are winning:
The declining level of trust among Americans may have contributed to reduced flexibility in the U.S. labor market over the last several decades, according to a Federal Reserve working paper.
In the paper, Fed economists Raven Molloy, Christopher Smith and Riccardo Trezzi, along with University of Notre Dame professor Abigail Wozniak, identify a 10 percent to 15 percent decline in U.S. labor market fluidity — a measure that encompasses workers switching jobs and moving states as well as employers creating or cutting positions — since the early 1980s.
In U.S. states where the share of people who said their trust in strangers fell more steeply, labor mobility registered greater declines, according to the paper. The drop in social trust “may have increased the cost of job search or made both parties in the hiring process more risk averse,” it said.
“Regardless of the cause, less fluidity in the labor market leads to fewer opportunities for workers to renegotiate their current employment arrangements using outside options as leverage or to change jobs,” the authors wrote. That means less scope for wage growth, and that U.S. workers may be more reluctant to quit their jobs, “leading to ‘precautionary’ job holding and again an increase in the likelihood that the unemployed are there involuntarily.”
The paper by Raven S. Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, Riccardo Trezzi, and Abigail Wozniak is titled Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market. I would quote from it, but there appears to be some kind of incompatible font problem which gives rise to strange effects when copied.
BMO has redeemed a chunk of sub-debt on its pretend-maturity:
Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO)(NYSE:BMO) today announced its intention to redeem all of its $700,000,000 Series D Medium-Term Notes First Tranche (the “Notes”) on April 21, 2016. The Notes are redeemable at par together with accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
These notes were issued in 2006.
It was a superb day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 22bp, FixedResets winning 117bp and DeemedRetractibles up 53bp. The Performance Highlights table is, predictably enough, dominated by winning FixedResets, with issues from TRP and BAM leading the pack. Volume was average.
For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.
Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread
Here’s TRP:
Click for Big
TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.95 to be $1.47 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +296, is $1.00 cheap at its bid price of 11.22.
Click for Big
Most expensive is MFC.PR.O, resetting at +497bp on 2021-6-19, bid at 25.20 to be 1.41 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.00 to be 1.34 cheap.
Click for Big
The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 14.23 to be $0.70 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255 on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.25 and appears to be $1.07 rich.
Click for Big
FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 15.02 looks $0.57 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 14.50 and is $0.37 cheap.
Click for Big
Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.99%, with two outliers below -2.00%. Note that the range of the y-axis has changed today. There are no junk outliers.
Click for Big
Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 5.33 % | 6.47 % | 12,259 | 16.12 | 1 | 1.6000 % | 1,470.7 |
| FixedFloater | 7.44 % | 6.53 % | 23,056 | 15.71 | 1 | 2.1600 % | 2,672.4 |
| Floater | 4.60 % | 4.76 % | 78,482 | 15.84 | 4 | 1.5328 % | 1,666.1 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.3572 % | 2,746.3 |
| SplitShare | 4.84 % | 5.69 % | 78,466 | 2.66 | 7 | 0.3572 % | 3,213.7 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.3572 % | 2,507.4 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.81 % | 4.21 % | 77,077 | 0.08 | 6 | 0.1789 % | 2,539.3 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.75 % | 5.79 % | 102,111 | 14.15 | 33 | 0.2184 % | 2,516.1 |
| FixedReset | 5.64 % | 5.14 % | 198,742 | 14.54 | 85 | 1.1679 % | 1,804.8 |
| Deemed-Retractible | 5.31 % | 5.87 % | 116,364 | 5.14 | 34 | 0.5280 % | 2,563.5 |
| FloatingReset | 3.12 % | 5.31 % | 42,581 | 5.46 | 16 | 0.3813 % | 1,953.6 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| PWF.PR.Q | FloatingReset | -3.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 10.50 Evaluated at bid price : 10.50 Bid-YTW : 4.89 % |
| GWO.PR.O | FloatingReset | -2.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.00 Bid-YTW : 12.20 % |
| GWO.PR.N | FixedReset | -1.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.54 Bid-YTW : 11.01 % |
| RY.PR.H | FixedReset | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.91 Evaluated at bid price : 16.91 Bid-YTW : 4.62 % |
| RY.PR.D | Deemed-Retractible | 1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.18 Bid-YTW : 5.20 % |
| RY.PR.I | FixedReset | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.91 Bid-YTW : 4.75 % |
| RY.PR.A | Deemed-Retractible | 1.09 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.11 Bid-YTW : 5.21 % |
| CM.PR.P | FixedReset | 1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.58 Evaluated at bid price : 16.58 Bid-YTW : 4.72 % |
| GWO.PR.L | Deemed-Retractible | 1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.47 Bid-YTW : 5.94 % |
| GWO.PR.I | Deemed-Retractible | 1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.75 Bid-YTW : 7.09 % |
| TD.PF.A | FixedReset | 1.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.89 Evaluated at bid price : 16.89 Bid-YTW : 4.64 % |
| IAG.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.15 Bid-YTW : 8.78 % |
| BMO.PR.T | FixedReset | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.85 Evaluated at bid price : 16.85 Bid-YTW : 4.61 % |
| BNS.PR.M | Deemed-Retractible | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.37 Bid-YTW : 5.10 % |
| BAM.PR.R | FixedReset | 1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 14.23 Evaluated at bid price : 14.23 Bid-YTW : 5.38 % |
| MFC.PR.I | FixedReset | 1.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.10 Bid-YTW : 8.92 % |
| TD.PF.E | FixedReset | 1.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 18.55 Evaluated at bid price : 18.55 Bid-YTW : 4.87 % |
| VNR.PR.A | FixedReset | 1.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.61 Evaluated at bid price : 16.61 Bid-YTW : 5.44 % |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset | 1.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.78 Bid-YTW : 9.55 % |
| CU.PR.C | FixedReset | 1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 15.66 Evaluated at bid price : 15.66 Bid-YTW : 5.01 % |
| PVS.PR.D | SplitShare | 1.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2021-10-08 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.56 Bid-YTW : 6.64 % |
| BMO.PR.M | FixedReset | 1.43 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.77 Bid-YTW : 4.55 % |
| W.PR.K | FixedReset | 1.44 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 23.03 Evaluated at bid price : 24.60 Bid-YTW : 5.36 % |
| RY.PR.Z | FixedReset | 1.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.00 Bid-YTW : 4.54 % |
| SLF.PR.I | FixedReset | 1.51 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.80 Bid-YTW : 8.85 % |
| TD.PF.C | FixedReset | 1.57 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.85 Evaluated at bid price : 16.85 Bid-YTW : 4.63 % |
| BAM.PR.E | Ratchet | 1.60 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.70 Bid-YTW : 6.47 % |
| FTS.PR.I | FloatingReset | 1.62 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 9.40 Evaluated at bid price : 9.40 Bid-YTW : 5.03 % |
| TD.PF.B | FixedReset | 1.69 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.84 Evaluated at bid price : 16.84 Bid-YTW : 4.64 % |
| BAM.PF.G | FixedReset | 1.70 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.95 Evaluated at bid price : 17.95 Bid-YTW : 5.32 % |
| FTS.PR.M | FixedReset | 1.78 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.60 Evaluated at bid price : 16.60 Bid-YTW : 5.06 % |
| MFC.PR.K | FixedReset | 1.85 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.39 Bid-YTW : 9.77 % |
| MFC.PR.F | FixedReset | 1.86 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.62 Bid-YTW : 10.93 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset | 1.91 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.51 Bid-YTW : 9.13 % |
| HSE.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.99 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.88 Evaluated at bid price : 16.88 Bid-YTW : 6.50 % |
| BAM.PR.B | Floater | 2.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 10.05 Evaluated at bid price : 10.05 Bid-YTW : 4.77 % |
| BAM.PR.C | Floater | 2.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 9.95 Evaluated at bid price : 9.95 Bid-YTW : 4.82 % |
| BAM.PF.E | FixedReset | 2.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.25 Evaluated at bid price : 17.25 Bid-YTW : 5.15 % |
| BAM.PR.G | FixedFloater | 2.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.77 Bid-YTW : 6.53 % |
| HSE.PR.E | FixedReset | 2.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.79 Evaluated at bid price : 16.79 Bid-YTW : 6.54 % |
| BAM.PF.F | FixedReset | 2.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.68 Evaluated at bid price : 17.68 Bid-YTW : 5.37 % |
| RY.PR.M | FixedReset | 2.70 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.87 Evaluated at bid price : 17.87 Bid-YTW : 4.74 % |
| BAM.PR.Z | FixedReset | 2.80 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.65 Evaluated at bid price : 17.65 Bid-YTW : 5.42 % |
| TRP.PR.B | FixedReset | 2.88 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 10.70 Evaluated at bid price : 10.70 Bid-YTW : 4.65 % |
| BIP.PR.A | FixedReset | 2.90 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.75 Evaluated at bid price : 17.75 Bid-YTW : 6.06 % |
| HSE.PR.C | FixedReset | 2.93 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 15.10 Evaluated at bid price : 15.10 Bid-YTW : 6.72 % |
| CM.PR.O | FixedReset | 3.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.11 Evaluated at bid price : 17.11 Bid-YTW : 4.68 % |
| MFC.PR.G | FixedReset | 3.09 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.00 Bid-YTW : 8.93 % |
| BAM.PR.K | Floater | 3.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 10.06 Evaluated at bid price : 10.06 Bid-YTW : 4.76 % |
| RY.PR.J | FixedReset | 3.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 18.13 Evaluated at bid price : 18.13 Bid-YTW : 4.79 % |
| BMO.PR.Q | FixedReset | 3.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.65 Bid-YTW : 7.37 % |
| TRP.PR.C | FixedReset | 3.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 11.22 Evaluated at bid price : 11.22 Bid-YTW : 5.00 % |
| TRP.PR.F | FloatingReset | 3.60 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 11.21 Evaluated at bid price : 11.21 Bid-YTW : 5.24 % |
| TRP.PR.E | FixedReset | 3.64 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.95 Evaluated at bid price : 17.95 Bid-YTW : 4.59 % |
| TRP.PR.A | FixedReset | 3.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 14.20 Evaluated at bid price : 14.20 Bid-YTW : 4.79 % |
| BAM.PR.T | FixedReset | 3.79 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 14.50 Evaluated at bid price : 14.50 Bid-YTW : 5.39 % |
| BAM.PF.B | FixedReset | 4.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.71 Evaluated at bid price : 16.71 Bid-YTW : 5.27 % |
| BAM.PF.A | FixedReset | 4.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 17.66 Evaluated at bid price : 17.66 Bid-YTW : 5.34 % |
| TRP.PR.D | FixedReset | 4.81 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.98 Evaluated at bid price : 16.98 Bid-YTW : 4.78 % |
| TRP.PR.G | FixedReset | 5.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 18.60 Evaluated at bid price : 18.60 Bid-YTW : 4.96 % |
| TRP.PR.I | FloatingReset | 7.44 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 10.25 Evaluated at bid price : 10.25 Bid-YTW : 4.86 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| BMO.PR.W | FixedReset | 99,180 | RBC crossed 68,000 at 16.45. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 16.59 Evaluated at bid price : 16.59 Bid-YTW : 4.65 % |
| TD.PF.G | FixedReset | 86,302 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 23.28 Evaluated at bid price : 25.41 Bid-YTW : 5.25 % |
| BNS.PR.E | FixedReset | 73,858 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 23.27 Evaluated at bid price : 25.37 Bid-YTW : 5.18 % |
| NA.PR.X | FixedReset | 72,223 | Nesbitt crossed 39,000 at 25.17. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 23.20 Evaluated at bid price : 25.17 Bid-YTW : 5.51 % |
| MFC.PR.O | FixedReset | 66,145 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-06-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.20 Bid-YTW : 5.49 % |
| HSE.PR.A | FixedReset | 56,150 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-03 Maturity Price : 8.60 Evaluated at bid price : 8.60 Bid-YTW : 7.12 % |
| There were 30 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| HSE.PR.G | FixedReset | Quote: 16.88 – 24.50 Spot Rate : 7.6200 Average : 4.2889 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.Q | FloatingReset | Quote: 10.50 – 12.05 Spot Rate : 1.5500 Average : 1.3123 YTW SCENARIO |
| CM.PR.Q | FixedReset | Quote: 17.84 – 18.50 Spot Rate : 0.6600 Average : 0.4432 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset | Quote: 15.78 – 16.39 Spot Rate : 0.6100 Average : 0.4169 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.K | FixedReset | Quote: 15.39 – 16.01 Spot Rate : 0.6200 Average : 0.4367 YTW SCENARIO |
| BNS.PR.C | FloatingReset | Quote: 20.77 – 21.59 Spot Rate : 0.8200 Average : 0.6386 YTW SCENARIO |