The New York Fed released the updated survey of Consumer Expectations:
April Survey: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Rise at Short-Term, Remain Stable at Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons
- Median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons, respectively, in April.
- Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped sharply by 4.3 ppts to 5.1 percent from a spike in March.
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.3 ppt to 2.7 percent in April; however, mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 0.4 ppt to 43.9 percent, the highest reading of the series since April 2025.
- Perceptions about credit access compared to a year ago and expectations for future credit availability both deteriorated, while the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.9 ppt to 11.4 percent, the lowest reading in more than two years.
On the other hand, the 10-Year TIPS/Nominals Break-Even Inflation Rate hit a three-year high:
[New York Fed President John] Williams in his Tuesday speech said inflation expectations remain “well anchored, despite the deluge of shocks.” Key surveys from the University of Michigan, the New York Fed and the Conference Board show that to be the case. Kashkari, one of the dissenters at last month’s Fed meeting, agreed in a statement on Friday, writing he’s “somewhat comforted by the fact that both market and survey measures of long-run inflation expectations appeared well anchored at our 2 percent target.”
But just on Tuesday, a market-based measure of long-term inflation expectations climbed to a three-year high. The 10-year inflation breakeven rate, which is the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security yield, reached 2.5%, the highest level since early 2023.
“The longer inflation remains above 2%, the greater the risk that it becomes entrenched in expectations, making it harder to achieve the (Fed’s) goal,” Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned in March, shortly after the Iran war broke out.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1218 % | 2,525.7 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1218 % | 4,789.1 |
| Floater | 5.68 % | 5.85 % | 45,269 | 14.11 | 3 | 0.1218 % | 2,760.0 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0157 % | 3,657.5 |
| SplitShare | 4.76 % | 4.59 % | 55,527 | 2.83 | 5 | -0.0157 % | 4,367.8 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0157 % | 3,408.0 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.78 % | 4.72 % | 53,420 | 0.08 | 3 | -0.0529 % | 3,042.1 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.63 % | 5.66 % | 50,347 | 14.35 | 30 | -0.1801 % | 3,347.1 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.59 % | 6.00 % | 99,329 | 13.60 | 24 | 0.4050 % | 3,335.0 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.49 % | 5.56 % | 55,882 | 14.46 | 22 | 0.4503 % | 3,285.3 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4050 % | 3,967.3 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.96 % | 4.31 % | 91,623 | 2.33 | 24 | 0.0449 % | 2,660.7 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4050 % | 3,409.0 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.08 % | 5.35 % | 73,428 | 3.24 | 14 | 0.3552 % | 3,253.7 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 23.44 Evaluated at bid price : 25.23 Bid-YTW : 5.45 % |
| ELF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | -1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 23.74 Evaluated at bid price : 24.05 Bid-YTW : 5.76 % |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 22.97 Evaluated at bid price : 24.25 Bid-YTW : 5.87 % |
| IFC.PR.M | Perpetual-Discount | 1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 24.52 Evaluated at bid price : 24.92 Bid-YTW : 5.57 % |
| POW.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 22.22 Evaluated at bid price : 22.50 Bid-YTW : 5.60 % |
| CU.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | 1.17 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-06-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.15 Bid-YTW : 4.30 % |
| SLF.PR.E | Insurance Straight | 1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 21.50 Evaluated at bid price : 21.50 Bid-YTW : 5.30 % |
| PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | 1.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 21.01 Evaluated at bid price : 21.01 Bid-YTW : 5.76 % |
| BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | 1.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 22.64 Evaluated at bid price : 23.72 Bid-YTW : 5.88 % |
| GWO.PR.G | Insurance Straight | 2.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 23.10 Evaluated at bid price : 23.36 Bid-YTW : 5.63 % |
| BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 2.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 22.18 Evaluated at bid price : 22.89 Bid-YTW : 6.03 % |
| IFC.PR.F | Insurance Straight | 3.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 23.66 Evaluated at bid price : 23.95 Bid-YTW : 5.59 % |
| IFC.PR.A | FixedReset Ins Non | 3.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 22.46 Evaluated at bid price : 22.83 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 3.77 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 20.63 Evaluated at bid price : 20.63 Bid-YTW : 5.62 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| ENB.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 18,485 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 23.30 Evaluated at bid price : 24.80 Bid-YTW : 6.00 % |
| GWO.PR.T | Insurance Straight | 14,964 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 22.93 Evaluated at bid price : 23.20 Bid-YTW : 5.61 % |
| GWO.PR.Z | Insurance Straight | 10,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Option Certainty Maturity Date : 2056-05-07 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.01 Bid-YTW : 5.78 % |
| There were 0 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| PWF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 23.14 – 23.40 Spot Rate : 0.2600 Average : 0.1831 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 25.23 – 25.58 Spot Rate : 0.3500 Average : 0.2894 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.Z | Insurance Straight | Quote: 25.01 – 25.23 Spot Rate : 0.2200 Average : 0.1731 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PR.B | Floater | Quote: 13.48 – 13.66 Spot Rate : 0.1800 Average : 0.1384 YTW SCENARIO |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | Quote: 21.27 – 21.64 Spot Rate : 0.3700 Average : 0.3291 YTW SCENARIO |
| FTS.PR.G | FixedReset Prem | Quote: 25.33 – 25.49 Spot Rate : 0.1600 Average : 0.1221 YTW SCENARIO |