Market Action

December 12, 2006

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.23% 4.24% 36,419 16.97 1 +0.0000% 1,020.3
Fixed-Floater 4.81% 3.83% 102,144 8.37 7 -0.1061% 1,030.0
Floater 4.48% -17.73% 63,425 6.60 5 -0.2710% 1,034.9
Op. Retract 4.63% +0.08% 82,309 2.20 17 -0.0319% 1,032.8
Split-Share 5.12% 2.98% 139,602 2.70 8 -0.0579% 1,038.7
Interest Bearing 6.90% 5.43% 76,350 3.84 7 -0.1846% 1,023.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.01% 3.54% 249,455 4.41 51 +0.0680% 1,051.1
Perpetual-Discount 4.56% 4.56% 951,558 13.14 6 +0.2833% 1,052.7
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
AL.PR.E Floater -1.3884% Any dreams I ever had of attempting to understand this issue, with its bizarre dividend calculation methodology, have long since vanished. It pays 100% of Prime, is priced at 26.28, and has been callable at $25.00 for 13 years.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
CM.PR.I PerpetualPremium 184,344 Recent new issue, pre-tax bid-YTW now 4.63% based on a bid of $25.27 and a call at $25.00 2016-3-1.
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount 158,700 Recent new issue, pre-tax bid-YTW now 4.77% based on a bid of 25.06 and a limitMaturity.
TOC.PR.B Floater 140,350 Scotia crossed 139,500 at $25.90.
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 29,500 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.45% based on a bid of $25.10 and a call 2015-6-23 at $25.00
BAM.PR.B Floater 28,427 National Bank crossed 25,000 at $24.90

There were nineteen other index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

Issue Comments

POW.PR.B : Current call, so what?

The yield-to-worst on POW.PR.B is now negative. It closed today at 26.46-65, but it is currently callable at $26.00:

POW.PR.B Embedded Options
Redemption 2006-11-28 2007-11-27 26.000000
Redemption 2007-11-28 2008-11-27 25.750000
Redemption 2008-11-28 2009-11-27 25.500000
Redemption 2009-11-28 2010-11-27 25.250000
Redemption 2010-11-28 INFINITE DATE 25.000000

This gives rise to: 

POW.PR.B optionCalculationList
Call 2007-01-11 YTM: -6.26 % [Restricted: -0.51 %] (Prob: 35.43 %)
Call 2007-04-11 YTM: 2.20 % [Restricted: 0.72 %] (Prob: 5.03 %)
Call 2007-12-28 YTM: 3.32 % [Restricted: 3.32 %] (Prob: 7.25 %)
Call 2008-12-28 YTM: 3.76 % [Restricted: 3.76 %] (Prob: 3.72 %)
Call 2009-12-28 YTM: 3.93 % [Restricted: 3.93 %] (Prob: 2.86 %)
Call 2010-12-28 YTM: 4.03 % [Restricted: 4.03 %] (Prob: 2.57 %)
Option Certainty 2035-01-21 YTM: 5.05 % [Restricted: 5.05 %] (Prob: 43.13 %)

 

I’ve uploaded some graphs:

I can’t say I really understand why the price should have gone up so spectacularly recently. One can make the usual argument that since the redemption premium declines by $0.25 annually, the net cost to the company is not the coupon of 1.3375, but $0.25 less than this, or $1.0875, but this is less than the current financing cost only by half the saving. The company’s treasurer has the immediate option of reducing permanent costs by about $0.125 p.a. (gross of issuance costs), at the expense of a few years loss of charges … but this analysis assumes that the current refinancing level will be available a few years hence. It might not be.

And why should the price spike now?

The best an investor can reasonably hope for is a yield of 4.03% if it lasts until its $25.00 call; there are lots of issues with similar characterists that have such a yield without the risk of negative returns. The new RY.PR.D issue settles tomorrow and yields 4.50%. RY.PR.W has a yield to worst of 4.02%, with a 2014 call date, without the risk of an intervening call. The same can be said for POW.PR.D, pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.36% based on a call 2014-11-30, with no intervening call risk – and it’s a more active trader and the same name!

So the whole situation is very mysterious and I consider POW.PR.B to be very expensive at current levels.

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMI Preferred Indices : April 1996

All indices were assigned a value of 1000.0 as of December 31, 1993.

HIMI Index Values 1996-04-30
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,347.9 0 0 0 0 0 0
FixedFloater 1,345.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Floater 1,269.2 7 1.55 5.06% 15.0 94M 5.44%
OpRet 1,151.5 27 1.32 5.96% 5.3 79M 6.83%
SplitShare 1,151.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest-Bearing 1,151.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Perpetual-Premium 1,147.3 4 1.00 5.05% 3.0 101M 7.99%
Perpetual-Discount 1,095.4 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index Constitution, 1996-04-30, Pre-Rebalancing

Index Constitution, 1996-04-30, Post-Rebalancing

Issue Comments

BCE Cancels Trust Conversion & Pref Offer; Announces Exchange Offer for Bell Prefs

Well, that’s a long headline, but I want to make sure nobody misses it!

In a press release issued today, BCE stated:

BCE also announced today that it will not move forward with the planned conversion into an income trust announced by the company on October 11, 2006. However, the company is continuing with previously announced plans to simplify its corporate structure and eliminate BCE’s holding company operations. As part of this process, BCE intends, at its next annual shareholders meeting, to change its name to Bell Canada Inc. and will have two operating businesses: Bell and Bell Aliant Regional Communications. Bell Canada also intends to change its name to Bell Inc. at the same time.

Under a plan of arrangement, and as part of the corporate simplification process, holders of Bell Canada preferred shares will be asked to exchange their shares for BCE preferred shares with the same series rights. The arrangement will also provide for a one-time special dividend of $0.20 per Bell Canada preferred share outstanding immediately prior to the exchange. The arrangement must be approved by the holders of common and preferred shares of Bell Canada, each voting as a class, at a special meeting to be held on January 23, 2007.

The previously announced offer is therefore cancelled. The market hadn’t been taking it too seriously anyway.

To summarize:

  • There is no longer an offer for: BCE.PR.R, BCE.PR.S, BCE.PR.Y, BCE.PR.Z, BCE.PR.A, BCE.PR.C.
  • There is no longer a cash offer for: BC.PR.B, BC.PR.C, BC.PR.E (or for the Series 15, BC.PR.A; or for the Series 16, BC.PR.D; which are not tracked by HIMIPref™)
  • There is now an exchange offer with a special dividend sweetener for: BC.PR.B, BC.PR.C, BC.PR.E (and for the Series 15, BC.PR.A; and for the Series 16, BC.PR.D; which are not tracked by HIMIPref™)

Update: DBRS has confirmed the ratings of Bell Canada at Pfd-2, and of BCE at Pfd-2(low), removing them from review. They had been placed under review October 11.

Market Action

December 11, 2006

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.25% 4.25% 37,924 16.95 1 +0.0405% 1,020.3
Fixed-Floater 4.80% 3.77% 101,668 8.38 7 +0.2541% 1,031.1
Floater 4.47% -20.26% 59,880 6.58 5 -0.0313% 1,037.7
Op. Retract 4.63% -0.43% 80,853 2.20 17 +0.0916% 1,033.1
Split-Share 5.11% 2.95% 142,032 2.70 8 -0.0005% 1,039.3
Interest Bearing 6.89% 5.23% 75,796 3.84 7 +0.1265% 1,025.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.02% 3.63% 251,087 4.38 51 +0.0294% 1,050.4
Perpetual-Discount 4.57% 4.58% 952,037 16.28 6 +0.4274% 1,049.8
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +1.2371% Comes back from yesterday’s swoon to yield 4.53% based on a bid of $24.55 and a limitMaturity.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
POW.PR.D PerpetualPremium 104,490 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.36% based on a bid of $26.30 and a call 2014-11-30 at $25.00
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 91,905 Recent new issue, pre-tax bid-YTW now 4.64% based on a bid of $25.26 and a call at $25.00 2016-3-1
W.PR.J PerpetualPremium 86,200 Nesbitt crossed 85,000 at $25.53. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.85% based on a call 2008-8-14. An attractive issue, if you don’t mind the usually low volume (averageTradingValue ~ $52,000) and the exclusion from HIMIPref™ recommendations due to the short term of the YTW Scenario
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount 47,192 Has been very active! Just for fun, I’ve prepared graphs of volume-average and flatBidPrice since issue, with its twin, SLF.PR.C, as comparator. Price went up a good chunk today, to close at $24.55-65, for a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.53% based on a limit maturity.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 24,450 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.55% based on a bidof 24.70 and a limit maturity.

There were five other index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

Issue Comments

Faircourt Trusts to Merge? FCI.PR.A FCF.PR.A FCN.PR.A FIG.PR.A

Faircourt has announced that they propose to merge several of their public investment vehicles:

Faircourt Asset Management Inc. has announced that it will hold securityholder meetings on January 9, 2007 for Faircourt Income Split Trust, Faircourt Split Five Trust, Faircourt Split Seven Trust and Income & Growth Split Trust (the “Funds”). At the meetings, holders of units (“Unitholders”) and holders of preferred securities (“Preferred Securityholders”) of each of the Funds will be asked to consider the proposed merger (the “Merger”) of Income Split, Split Five and Split Seven into Income & Growth Split, to create a single trust (the “Continuing Trust”). Preferred Securityholders of the Funds will also be asked to consider the proposed exchange of preferred securities of each of Income Split, Split Five and Split Seven for preferred securities of Income & Growth Split (which will be the Continuing Trust) which, if approved, is expected to occur shortly following approval. Unitholders and Preferred Securityholders will also be asked to consider various amendments to the trust agreements and trust indentures of the Funds.

There is no indication that I can find, either on the company website or on SEDAR as to just what these “various amendments” might be.

Let’s hope the amendments include a declining premium on the preferred calls! I’ll keep everybody posted.

Market Action

December 8, 2006

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.24% 4.26% 37,639 16.94 1 +0.0000% 1,019.9
Fixed-Floater 4.81% 3.81% 103,006 8.36 7 +0.0001% 1,028.5
Floater 4.47% -20.59% 60,917 6.58 5 +0.0235% 1,038.1
Op. Retract 4.63% -0.47% 81,806 2.20 17 +0.0372% 1,032.2
Split-Share 5.11% 2.91% 144,894 2.71 8 -0.0020% 1,039.3
Interest Bearing 6.90% 5.52% 76,292 3.85 7 -0.4193% 1,024.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.02% 3.62% 254,404 4.57 51 -0.0704% 1,050.1
Perpetual-Discount 4.59% 4.60% 968,678 16.25 6 -0.2374% 1,045.3
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing -1.6915% This has been volatile lately, probably due to speculation about the possible call. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.62% (as interest!) based on a bid of 9.88 and a maturity 2015-3-31.
FCN.PR.A InterestBearing -1.3725% A blowback from yesterday. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.44% (as interest!) based on a bid of 10.06 and a hardMaturity 2011-3-31 at 10.00. This issue’s call schedule does not include a declining premium feature, so negative pseudoConvexity is fierce.
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -1.0157% Virtually identical to SLF.PR.D, which it now brackets in price, being quoted at 24.25-59 compared to SLF.PR.D’s 24.38-46. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.59% based on a limitMaturity.
LBS.PR.A SplitShare -1.0157% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.17% – not bad for a split share or other retractible – based on a bid of 10.72 and a hard maturity 2013-11-29 at 10.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 129,654 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.50%, based on a limit maturity. In other words, these are trading near-as-dammit to even yield with the Royal new issue, which is expected to settle Dec. 13.
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount 41,489 A regular guest on this list! Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.56% based on a bid of 24.38 and a limit maturity.
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 35,450 The price collapsed at the close, with 10+ trades in the last minute. Scotia sold on nine of them, selling 6,500 at prices beginning at 24.60 and ending at 24.25. Lesson 1: don’t put market orders in during the last minute unless you know for sure there’s some depth!
CM.PR.I PerpetualPremium 33,115 Recent new issue, now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.63% based on a bid of $25.27 and a call 2016-3-1 at 25.00
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount 19,802 Recent new issue, now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.78% based on a bid of $25.00 and a limit maturity.

There were five other index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

No enormous blocks crossed by Scotia today! I guess their guy’s still counting his commission from the last two days.

Market Action

December 7, 2006

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.25% 4.26% 39,194 16.93 1 +0.0000% 1,019.9
Fixed-Floater 4.81% 3.80% 105,620 8.36 7 -0.0431% 1,028.5
Floater 4.47% -20.50% 62,785 6.58 5 -0.0626% 1,037.8
Op. Retract 4.63% -0.64% 82,027 2.21 17 -0.1594% 1,031.8
Split-Share 5.11% 2.97% 149,083 2.72 8 -0.0824% 1,039.3
Interest Bearing 6.87% 5.05% 75,820 1.88 7 +0.2230% 1,028.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.01% 3.44% 259,007 4.20 51 +0.0544% 1,050.8
Perpetual-Discount 4.58% 4.59% 978,707 16.28 6 -0.0736% 1,047.8
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
ELF.PR.F PerpetualPremium -1.3843% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.88% based on a bid of 27.07 and a call at 26.00 on 2009-11-16.
ACO.PR.A Retractible -1.2031% Still looking expensive at a bid of 27.92 and a pre-tax bid-YTW of 1.92% based on a call 2008-12-31 at 26.00
FCN.PR.A InterestBearing +1.1905% Now with a pre-tax YTW of 4.06% (like T-Bills!) based on a bid of 10.20 and a call 2007-4-30 at 10.00
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BCE.PR.A FixedFloater 777,300 This issue was also one of yesterday’s blocks
BCE.PR.R FixedFloater 541,810 This was also a big block trader yesterday
PWF.PR.K PerpetualPremium 432,730 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.47% based on a bid of 25.96 and a call 2014-11-30 at 25.00
BCE.PR.S RatchetRate 427,730  
BC.PR.C FixedFloater 410,214  
POW.PR.D PerpetualPremium 307,225 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.40% based on a bid of 26.23 and a call 2014-11-30 at 25.00
PWF.PR.L PerpetualPremium 307,180 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.38% based on a bid of 26.51 and a call 2015-11-30 at 25.00
GWO.PR.G PerpetualPremium 207,140 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.86% based on a bid of 26.81 and a call 2010-1-30 at 26.00
RY.PR.W PerpetualPremium 202,507 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.99% based on a bid of 26.50 and a call 2014-3-26 at 25.00
BCE.PR.C FixedFloater 103,950 Also on yesterday’s big block list

There were thirteen other index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

Another day of big blocks! Not quite as busy as yesterday, but ’tis enough, ’twill serve.

Issue Comments

TA.PR.C to be Redeemed

Yet another fine old preferred security will shortly be leaving us.

In a press release dated November 22, Transalta announced:

TransAlta Corporation (TSX: TA; NYSE: TAC) today announced it will redeem all of its 7.75% Preferred Securities (the “7.75% Preferred Securities”), which have an aggregate principal amount of $175,000,000, on Jan. 2, 2007 (the “Redemption Date”).  The redemption will be funded with short-term debt and is expected to reduce interest costs.

.

I’ll just bet that’s the expectation! By more than 3% absolute, I’d guess or $5-million-plus annually!

It has been a long time since this paper was investment-grade … DBRS downgraded it from Pfd-2(low)y (the “y” meaning “hybrid”) to Pfd-3(high)y on December 12, 2002, but for a little while it was a fine trader. It will be missed, and it will be a long time before investment grade paper pays 7.75% again!

Data Changes

BNA.PR.A, BNA.PR.B : Name Change?

A wise old man once said to me … well, I must not tell a lie. He wasn’t really all that old at the time, and I thought he was a bit of a dork, actually, but it sounds better the first way …. “You can’t be any more efficient than the people you work with!”

And so it is with the name change of BNN Split Corp. I note from the DBRS website that they have noted the name change from BNN Split Corp. to BAM Split Corp. Huh, thinks I, it’a about time they did that. The ticker change from BNN to BAM happened long ago (2005-10-5, to be precise, according to the HIMIPref™ database, which must be right – or, at least, in agreement with the Toronto Stock Exchange – because if I don’t have the right tickers in the system then the prices won’t load).

So I look at the Corporate Web Site and find that this name change is dated November 6, according to the company. I grumble to myself a little, because backdating a month of changes is rather a bother, but to ensure that the longNames and shortNames on the instrumentDataRecords are correct, I check the TSX.

According to the TSX the name is still BNN Split Corp.

I’m going to assume that the Street gets its long names and short names from the TSX for contract and statement purposes and that assumption is enough for me to heave a sigh of relief and not process any changes to the HIMIPref™ database. If it’s good enough for the TSX, it’s good enough for me, that’s my motto!

I’ll keep an eye on the situation and process the name change when required.