Issue Comments

FIG.PR.A Partial Redemption

Better late than never! In a press release dated July 4, Faircourt Income & Growth Split Trust announced:

After giving effect to the redemption of the Trust Units, and in order to maintain appropriate balance in the fund between the Trust Units and Preferred Securities, the Manager announces that $45,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of the Trust’s 6.25% outstanding Preferred Securities (the “Preferred Securities”) will be redeemed on August 3, 2007 (the “Redemption Date”).

Interestingly, this press release is not to be found on the fund’s website.

The proportion of preferred securities redeemed is slightly over 25% of the total.

I noted the high yield available on this issue in the June Index Review – with the redemption, a lot of that yield has been received earlier than anticipated!

Update, 2007-08-11: The last commentary regarding this issue had to do with the DBRS credit review. There appears to have been some kind of oversight at DBRS – the issue is still “Under Review – Developing”

Market Action

August 3, 2007

It turned out that the end of the world, previously thought to have been cancelled, was merely postponed; a few proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (strong form) received bruises in the rush to the exits but, as they themselves noted, they probably would have got them anyway.

The day started well for fixed-income investors, with the Non-Farm Payrolls report showing that 92,000 jobs were created while unemployment crept up a fraction. James Hamilton at Econbrowser says it actually be worse than it looks, since it does not go far enough to contradict his other indicators. Other reactions have been compiled by the Wall Street Murdoch is Magnificent Journal.

The report was weak enough that even hawkish economists conceded a rate-increase might be further off than anticipated so Treasuries had a great day, closely followed by Canadas.

This exuberance does not extend to lending money to actual companies, however, especially not those involved in sourcing, packaging and selling mortgages. Employees of such firms hoping to get work processing redemptions from hedge funds were disappointed when another European fund halted redemptions.

All this crushed US stocks, while Canada had to deal not only with the US news, but also the fact that it doesn’t look like we’ll be able to go work at Telus, either. So Canada got squashed.

Speaking of Telus, they released their quarterlies today, and noted:

TELUS in July continued its assessment of whether it should potentially make a competing offer for BCE. TELUS has concluded this assessment and it does not intend to submit a competing offer to acquire BCE.

I’m still not convinced that Teachers / BCE story is over yet. I have convinced myself, however, that the secret of happiness is putting oneself into a position of not caring. Which is to say, not holding BCE Prefs.

Meanwhile, the preferred share market simply continued not reacting much to anything at all, but there was one notable exception. The Argus Preferreds, AR.PR.B, are tracked by HIMIPref™ for the very good reason that about ten years ago they were in an index for ten minutes. They were down 63.69% today (bid/bid) on no volume, as the already pathetic bid vanished. To be perfectly frank, I don’t know off the top of my head who owns Argus. Is it the soon to be bankrupt Hollinger or the soon to be jailed Lord Black? Whatever … this issue hasn’t paid its dividend for over two years, so it will be of interest only to hedge funds and scrip collectors.

The post regarding Malachite’s recent performance has been updated with figures for DPS.UN and a joke, so read it again. Read it many times!

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.84% 4.87% 28,131 15.82 1 -0.1652% 1,033.9
Fixed-Floater 4.97% 5.02% 130,092 14.15 8 -0.3249% 1,024.2
Floater 4.87% 0.39% 73,752 8.22 4 +0.0206% 1,050.1
Op. Retract 4.83% 3.94% 83,551 3.44 16 +0.0450% 1,022.5
Split-Share 5.03% 4.49% 106,471 3.92 15 +0.2070% 1,048.4
Interest Bearing 6.29% 6.82% 61,292 4.63 3 +0.3859% 1,024.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.52% 5.17% 103,376 5.66 24 -0.0270% 1,024.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.08% 5.11% 313,647 15.31 39 +0.0577% 975.1
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat -1.4622%  
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing +1.4333% Recovering about half of yesterday’s loss. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.59% based on a bid of 9.20 and a hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount +1.5922% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.95% based on a bid of 22.97 and a limitMaturity.
CFS.PR.A SplitShare +3.4895% Flight to quality with a vengeance! Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.40% (less than today’s gain!) based on a bid of 10.38 and a hardMaturity 2012-1-31 at 10.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
ACO.PR.A OpRet 78,070 Global crossed 38,800 at 27.34 for cash at 27.34, then the same amount for regular settlement at 26.98. Ex-Dividend today for 0.359375.
BCE.PR.I FixFloat 26,640  
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat 16,978  
CM.PR.P PerpetualPremium 10,250 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.85% based on a bid of 25.81 and a call 2012-11-28 at 25.00.

There were NO other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Zip. Zero. Zilch. There weren’t even enough issues trading in size to fill a table with five prime examples.

Index Construction / Reporting

HIMI Index Performance: July 2007

Performance of the HIMI Indices for July was:

Total Return, July 2007
Index Performance
Ratchet +8.24%
FixFloat +14.21%
Floater +0.06%
OpRet -0.10%
SplitShare +0.17%
Interest +0.03%
PerpetualPremium -0.03%
PerpetualDiscount +0.78%

Well – how about them fixed-floaters, eh? Or perhaps I should say “BCE Prefs”, since the FixedFloater index was comprised of eight issues in July, seven of which were BCE. It’s amazing what a generous takeover offer can do, eh? Especially since credit concerns had just about reached their peak on June 29 – the FixedFloater index was at 894.4 on June 29; above its low of 878.4 reached on June 11, but not by much!

The “Ratchet” index has been comprised solely of BCE issues throughout the period, but these fell less during the doldrums and hence had less ground to make up when Teachers’ gave the pref market its big boost.

As has been discussed elsewhere, the Claymore ETF returned -0.11% on the month; this number is after all fees and expenses and is after their rebalancing. I do not know what market action, if any, they took in order to reflect the index changes in their portolio … the current portfolio composition reflects at least some changes, but I do not know how completely the portfolio now reflects the index. It is also possible that they took no market action at all and the changes are due entirely to creation and destruction of units, with differing baskets. One can be reasonably sure, however, that changing their portfolio did not give their returns a trading-derived boost.

The same post has been updated with results for the other major passive preferred share fund listed on the TSX, DPS.UN. This fund returned (approximately; they do not report month-end NAVs) +1.38% on the month and -2.64% on the trailing three months. This fund has a higher weighting in the extremely volatile BCE prefs than does CPD.

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, actively managed by my firm, returned +0.55% on the month, +0.22% on the trailing three months. Returns assume reinvestment of dividends and are reported after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not  a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund.

The return of the “BMO Capital Markets 50” in July was +1.33%, but this will not be analyzed in detail due to the proprietary nature of this index. It should suffice to note that this index has a higher weighting in BCE issues than does the S&P/TSX index.

 

Issue Comments

BBD.PR.B / BBD.PR.D Arbitrage Closes

As fanatical devotees of the preferred share market will know, the two captioned issues are exchangeable into each other every five years … which gives rise to opportunities for arbitrage.

There are tax and liquidity headaches associated with this arbitrage, but it can be profitable – I have, for instance, received the following communication:

I can finally report that the BBD Pref B/D Arbitrage trades have finally closed.  I received the Pref B floating rate shares yesterday and swapped them into my shorting accounts to close out the positions today.  For 8-9 months, these trades returned a little over 10% annualized after costs — exactly as expected.  I see there are still 2.4M Pref D shares still outstanding, so we might get other arbitrage chances in the future.  Unlike my previous arbitrage trades of a couple of years ago when a $2.00 price difference evaporated in 2-3 months, this trade took the full period.  Indeed, the Aug 2 closing price difference of $1.60 is basically the same as when I started, so you could say the market is a wonderful forecaster!

So which pension fund wants to be first to give me a $50-million hedge fund mandate?

Update, 2007-08-10: The dividend going forward on the BBD.PR.D has been previously reported as 5.267%.

Update, 2007-08-12: I note from the Bombardier website that:

Following the conversion privilege of August 1, 2007, 82,736 Series 2 preferred shares were converted into 82,736 Series 3 preferred shares and 6,949,749 Series 3 preferred shares were converted into 6,949,749 Series 2 preferred shares.

Series 3 is BBD.PR.D, the Fixed-Rate element of the pair.

Market Action

August 2, 2007

Much to investors’ relief, the previously scheduled end of the world was cancelled today, which was considered good news for both American and Canadian equities. A good day all ’round, in fact, as Treasuries rose, dutifully followed by Canadas.

It is entirely possible that this exuberance has been caused by reports that Stephen Harper said there had been a lot of easy credit internationally, suggesting the recent turmoil was a reassessment of risk. We shall all sleep better tonight provided, of course, that the cheques resulting from massive redemptions of US Junk Funds don’t bounce. Meanwhile, Flaherty says he’s from the government and he’s here to help us.

Sub-Prime had a bad day amongst some indications that credit standards spiralled downwards over the past few years:

It makes one feel at least a little bit more sympathetic to the ratings agencies criticized for over-optimism!

Fed Funds contracts are showing a Fed easing ahead, but this is not necessarily a logical conclusion, especially considering that Europe might tighten.

Rio Tinto’s financing of its Alcan takeover is reported to be doing well.

As far as prefs are concerned … BSN.PR.A has been removed from the HIMIPref™ universe, due to its redemption.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.85% 4.88% 28,446 15.80 1 -0.3704% 1,035.6
Fixed-Floater 4.95% 5.01% 130,654 14.16 8 +0.6142% 1,027.6
Floater 4.87% -0.15% 75,136 8.20 4 -0.0197% 1,049.9
Op. Retract 4.84% 3.95% 84,865 3.29 16 +0.0008% 1,022.0
Split-Share 5.04% 4.56% 108,886 3.86 15 -0.0563% 1,046.2
Interest Bearing 6.32% 6.85% 62,002 4.62 3 -0.5324% 1,020.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.52% 5.17% 105,558 5.66 24 +0.0763% 1,025.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.08% 5.12% 320,279 15.31 39 -0.0660% 974.5
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing -2.4731% Even worse than yesterday, and now it’s just getting silly. It hit a new low of 8.40. Asset coverage is about 1.9:1 after a big hit in July. But it’s still not junk! Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.83% (as interest) based on a bid of 9.07 and a hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00.
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount -2.0515% Are the underwriters finally getting serious about clearing this out? New low today of 20.50. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.86% based on a bid of 20.53 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.0667% Dropping back after yesterday’s gain. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.00% based on a bid of 22.26 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.G FixFloat +2.5717% Can we take this as meaning that the BAM.PR.N price doesn’t indicate revulsion at the Brookfield name?
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.K OpRet 97,510 RBC crossed 90,000 at 24.95. Callable at par commencing 2007-9-23; softMaturity 2008-8-23.
BNS.PR.J PerpetualPremium 52,971 Desjardins crossed 50,000 at 25.85. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.81% based on a bid of 25.66 and a call 2013-11-28 at 25.00.
BNS.PR.K PerpetualDiscount 26,070 RBC bought 10,000 from Nesbitt at 24.40. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.95% based on a bid of 24.37 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 18,975 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.10% based on a bid of 23.16 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.O PerpetualDiscount 16,750 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.97% based on a bid of 24.50 and a limitMaturity.

There were Ten other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Index Construction / Reporting

HIMI Index Rebalancing : July 31, 2007

Not much change this time ’round, unlike June Month-End! Three issues were relegated to “Scraps” on volume concerns and the flow of PerpetualPremiums to PerpetualDiscount slowed to a bare trickle.

HIMI Index Changes, July 31, 2007
Issue From To Because
BNA.PR.B SplitShare Scraps Volume
PAY.PR.A SplitShare Scraps Volume
BCE.PR.H Ratchet Scraps Volume
PWF.PR.F PerpetualPremium PerpetualDiscount Price

As has previously been noted, CM.PR.C has been redeemed and removed from the PerpetualPremium index. Its last day of inclusion was July 31.

I will post about index performance and extreme issue performance at another time. I have already posted regarding MAPF Composition and MAPF Performance.

Sub-Prime!

Proof that the Sub-Prime Panic has Reached the Silly Stage

OK, maybe this isn’t really worth a post all of its own. But I can’t resist.

Bloomberg has a story up now, Taiwan Life Has Loss on Subprime Fund; Shares Fall:

Taiwan Life Insurance Co. booked a NT$428 million ($13 million) loss in the first half on its investment in a Bear Stearns Cos. fund containing U.S. sub-prime mortgages. The company’s shares slumped. The life insurer wrote off its entire investment in the Bear Stearns High Grade Credit Strategies fund to fully reflect the fund’s value, Taipei-based Taiwan Life said in an e-mailed statement today.

Taiwan Life had a first-half profit of NT$1.66 billion, including the loss on the Bear Stearns fund, up from NT$660 million a year earlier, according to the statement.

I also had a look at Taiwan Life’s English language website, which is pretty amateurish, but much better than my Chinese language website:

Presently, the shareholders include state-owned banks and the conglomerate: the Bank of Taiwan, the Land Bank of Taiwan, the Long Bon Development Company, with a total asset reaching NT$3.4 trillion. It is a reliable insurance company that has rich financial resources, stable management and unlimited responsibilities for its insurants. 

So let’s see if we have things straight here:

  • 1H07 Profit: 1,660-million
  • After Bear-Stearns Fund Loss of: 448-million
  • Total Assets: 3,400,000-million

I’m sure that the shareholders of Taiwan Life did not appreciate seeing 20% of their first half’s profit getting vapourized, but is this really a significant enough event to warrant Bloomberg home-page coverage? Is it really?

Market Action

August 1, 2007

A wild day for stocks, as American equities gained sharply in the last hour to record good performance on the day, while Canadian stocks … shoulda stood in bed.

Meanwhile, Treasuries fell sharply, which may be due to reallocation to equities, reduced hopes for a rate cut, or simply because they felt like it. Ask a priest.  Fitch cut ratings on a lot of sub-primes (which, I’ll bet, still doesn’t get the ratings in line with the prices) and clarified some of their rating processes. Canada still doesn’t have a dedicated bond blog or even any decent wire services (if I’m wrong, tell me!), so you’ll have to trust me again … Canadas did not have an exciting day. Flat-to-boring about sums it up.

Yesterday I highlighted a Bloomberg story claiming that some major brokerage bonds were trading as junk. Tom Graff says that’s a load of hooey, and provides some examples of bellwether junk bonds vs. the brokers of interest … broker spreads are wide, he says, but not actually junk!

Back to prefs … CM.PR.C has been redeemed and been removed from the “PerpetualPremium” index. To my shame, I confess that the HIMIPref™ Indices have not been rebalanced for July month-end and I will have to catch up at another time – hopefully tomorrow. The market had a good day – as suggested by the “Major Price Changes”, but beyond that, I’m afraid you’ll have to wait.

Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing -1.7951% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.40% (as interest) based on a bid of 9.30 and a hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00.
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +1.1057% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.92% based on a bid of 22.86 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +1.1236% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.95% based on a bid of 22.50 and a limitMaturity.
CFS.PR.A SplitShare +1.2024% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.07% based on a bid of 10.10 and a hardMaturity 2012-1-31 at 10.00
MFC.PR.A OpRet +1.2893% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.11% based on a bid of 25.14 and a softMaturity 2015-12-18 at 25.00
MIC.PR.A PerpetualPremium +1.5625% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.27% based on a bid of 26.00 and a call 2012-1-30 at 25.00
BNS.PR.J PerpetualPremium +1.7316% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.67% based on a bid of 25.85 and a call 2013-11-28 at 25.00
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount 69,146 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.07% based on a bid of 22.16 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 58,150 Scotia crossed 50,000 at 22.55. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.22% based on a bid of 26.71 and a call 2008-12-31 at 26.00.
ACO.PR.A OpRet 40,171 Scotia crossed 39,500 at 27.00. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.22% based on a bid of 26.71 and a call 2008-12-31 at 26.00
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 37,825 TD sold 10,700 to RBC, bought 10,200 from HSBC four minutes later and, after a pause, crossed 11,000; all at 24.10. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.00% based on a bid of 24.10 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 29,450 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.95% based on a bid of 22.73 and a limitMaturity.

There were eleven other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Update, 2007-08-02

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.85% 4.88% 28,380 15.81 1 +0.0000% 1,039.4
Fixed-Floater 4.98% 5.09% 131,776 15.49 8 -0.0206% 1,021.3
Floater 4.87% 0.15% 76,300 8.22 4 +0.0442% 1,051.1
Op. Retract 4.84% 3.79% 85,096 3.08 16 +0.1672% 1,022.0
Split-Share 5.04% 4.49% 111,069 3.93 15 +0.0277% 1,046.8
Interest Bearing 6.28% 6.76% 62,720 4.63 3 -0.5402% 1,026.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.53% 5.18% 105,751 5.66 24 +0.2230% 1,024.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.08% 5.11% 323,671 15.32 39 +0.1887% 975.2
MAPF

MAPF Portfolio Composition: July 31, 2007

Not a lot of change in the sectoral composition of the fund’s holdings since the June 29, 2007 analysis. Were it not for the other tables, readers might be forgiven for wondering whether there have been any changes at all!

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2007-7-31
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 38% 4.64% 5.51
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 26% 5.28% 4.30
PerpetualDiscount 36% 5.31% 15.01
Scraps 1% 4.39% 5.65
Cash -1% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 5.10% 8.69

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.), and readers may make their own adjustments to reflect interest. MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2007-7-31
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 19.3%
Pfd-1(low) 25.9%
Pfd-2(high) 0%
Pfd-2 38.4%
Pfd-2(low) 17.5%
Cash -1.1%

There has been a slight decline in credit quality,  but quality is still well within normal bounds. The variances in credit be constant as opportunistic trades are executed.

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2007-7-31
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 0.7%
$50,000 – $100,000 30.1%
$100,000 – $200,000 43.2%
$200,000 – $300,000 19.4%
>$300,000 7.7%
Cash -1.1%

Liquidity has declined somewhat from June’s elevated levels and are now comparable to that found in the analysis of the Claymore ETF April Portfolio.

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available on the fund’s web page. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission) and those who subscribe for $150,000+. Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

A discussion of July’s performance is available here.

MAPF

MAPF Performance: July, 2007

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund has been valued for July, 2007, month-end. The unit value is $9.3627. Returns over various periods are:

MAPF Returns to July 31, 2007
One Month +0.55%
Three Months +0.22%
One Year +5.58%
Two Years (annualized) +5.07%
Three Years (annualized) +5.83%
Four Years (annualized) +9.02%
Five Years (annualized) +9.88%
Six Years (annualized) +10.12%

Returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not  a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund. For more information, see the fund’s main page.

I’m very happy with the results. The NAV for the Claymore ETF (CPD on the TSX) is not yet available, but as of July 30, they were up only 5bp-and-a-hair on the month, so it looks like I earned my fees. Note that last month I expressed concern that I would underperform this month, since the BCE/Teachers deal was announced subsequent to month-end and was expected to boost returns of the BCE Prefs considerably. Well, returns of BCE Prefs were outrageous this month, I didn’t hold any, CPD did … but I outperformed anyway. Sometimes it works! (Not all the time, unfortunately!)

I will discuss performance further tomorrow, in an update to this post.

Update & Bump, 2007-08-01:

Claymore has published their final monthly numbers and I have derived the following table:

CPD Return, 1- & 3-month, to July 31
Date NAV Distribution Return for Sub-Period Monthly Return
April 30, 2007 19.91 0.00    
May 31 19.44 0.00 -2.36% -2.36%
June 26 18.97 $0.198800 -1.40% -1.40%
June 29 18.97   0.00%
July 31, 2007 18.95 0.00 -0.11% -0.11%
Quarterly Return  -3.83%

It should be explicitly noted that the CPD returns are shown AFTER ALL FEES AND EXPENSES, while the MAPF numbers are shown after expenses, but before fees … so to make the numbers more comparable, take the annual fee from the fund’s web page and divide by the appropriate number to obtain the period’s fee.

Still, I’m very pleased with these recent results.

Trading during the month returned to normal levels (about 30-35% of the portfolio turned over in July) from June’s frenetic activity. I would certainly like to see more volatility, but I’ll take what I can get! The recent excitement with US Junk Bonds hasn’t really affected the Canadian Preferred market to any huge degree, but it should be noted that Pfd-3 credit spread has increased markedly. The spreads referred to in the linked graph, by the way, represents the spread between Pfd-2 and Pfd-3, and are shown on an after-tax basis.

However, MAPF doesn’t really care a lot about the Pfd-3 spread – holdings continue to be of higher quality and this is not expected to change. Those tempted by the higher yields on Pfd-3 issues should take to heart my cardinal rule: no more than 10% of total holdings in Pfd-3 issues, and no more than 5% in any single Pfd-3 name.

And now … we will see what August brings!

Update, 2007-08-03 The DPS.UN NAV for August 1 has been published, so we can calculate the July-ish returns for it:

DPS.UN NAV Return, July-ish 2007
Date NAV Distribution Return for period
June 27, 2007 $21.95    
August 1, 2007 $22.23 $0.00 1.28%
Time-Weighted, July-ish +1.38%
CPD had an NAV of $19.01 on June 27 and $18.97 on June 29. The pre-July stub period return for CPD was therefore -0.21%.        

CPD had a NAV of $18.95 on July 31 and $18.97 on August 1. The post-July stub period return for CPD was therefore +0.11%.

Inclusion of these two stub periods therefore had the net effect of decreasing DPS.UN’s returns by about 0.10%; adding this back to the measured returns for the  measured period results in a July-ish return fro DPS.UN of +1.38%.

It should be noted that the DPS.UN returns for July, estimated as +1.38%, slightly exceed the “BMO Capital Markets 50” index, which came in at +1.33%. DPS.UN strongly outperformed CPD, with a heartfelt ‘thank-you’ to its overweighting in BCE issues.

Now, to see the DPS.UN quarterly NAV approximate return, we refer to the calculations for June-ish and May-ish and construct the following table:

DPS.UN NAV Returns, three-month-ish to end-July-ish, 2007
May-ish -2.67%
June-ish -1.33%
July-ish +1.38%
Three-months-ish -2.64%

So by this measure MAPF did indeed underperform the competition in July, due to relative weightings in BCE, but out-performed quite handsomely over the prior three months. Note that the DPS.UN returns are net of all fees and expense, while the MAPF returns shown at the top of this post are after expenses, but BEFORE FEES.

To see MAPF performance for a wide variety of periods, with comparisons to the BMO Capital Markets 50 Index (formerly the BMO-NB 50 Index), please see the fund’s main page, where there are numerous links under the heading “Performance”.

Update #2, 2007-08-03: Y’know, something’s just occurred to me, looking at that quarterly data and particularly the monthly data whence it is derived.

At some point in the future some extremely sophisticated ultra-quantitative high-powered analytical shop is going to look at these results with a view towards recommending whether their client should allocate Hymas Investment some assets. They’ll put an MBA in charge of the research.

As we all know, a long time ago, MBA stood for “More Bad Assets”. Then it stood for “Mexico, Brazil, Argentina”. I suppose that someday soon it will stand for “Mortgages, Banks, ABXs”. But that’s beside the point.

Anyway, this MBA won’t know or care about what I held vis a vis the index in the past few months. “Meaningless details!”, he’ll bark. “I’m an extremely sophisticated high-powered ultra-quant! Just yesterday, I showed my mummy a spreadsheet! Results! Don’t give me stories, give me results! Do you know who I had lunch with last week?”

So he’ll look at my results. While the past few months, taken as a whole, will certainly improve the relative returns of my fund, they will also significantly increase the standard deviation of my returns.

I’ll end up losing the account. “Too much variance! Nice returns – but too risky!” Disdaining BCE prefs might end up costing me business.

Update, 2007-8-6: Portfolio composition is discussed here.