June 8, 2012

Strains in Greek banking are becoming more obvious:

Credit Agricole SA, the foreign bank with the biggest risks in Greece, reached an accord with Greek authorities that will let its unit in the country access emergency funding should the need arise, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

Emporiki Bank, the Greek unit of Credit Agricole, will be able to tap so-called Emergency Liquidity Assistance from Greece’s central bank under certain conditions, the people said, declining to be identified because the matter is private. Access will probably be restricted to situations where deposits are declining, the people said. Greek banks without a foreign parent already use the facility.

Jean-Paul Chifflet, Credit Agricole’s chief executive officer, said on May 22 that his bank renewed a request for access to ELA funding with Bank of Greece’s governor. France’s third-largest bank “can’t increase significantly” exposures to Greece, Chifflet told investors last month at the company’s annual general meeting. Emporiki’s loans exceed deposits, requiring Credit Agricole to provide cross-border funding to help fill the gap.

Credit Agricole reduced that funding to Athens-based Emporiki to 4.6 billion euros at the end of March from 5.5 billion euros in December, partly as deposits rose, the bank said May 11. Credit Agricole also tapped 1.6 billion euros of ECB funding for Emporiki at the end of March.

The problem in Europe is that highly indebted countries owe money in currency they can’t print, right? It’s a good thing we’re smarter than that in Canada:

  • New Brunswick’s tax-supported debt as a percent of consolidated operating
    revenues has risen rapidly in the past five years.

  • We are lowering our issuer credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on
    the Province of New Brunswick to ‘A+’ from ‘AA-‘.

  • The stable outlook reflects our expectation that New Brunswick’s program
    review initiative will be successful at achieving cost efficiencies and that the province will achieve fiscal balance in the next two fiscal
    years as per its budget plan.


The ratings on New Brunswick reflect Standard & Poor’s opinion of the
following credit strengths:

  • The province’s relatively resilient economic performance since the global economic and financial crisis began in 2008 compared with peers’.
  • The province’s sound liquidity support of more than C$700 million in cash and marketable securities available to address potential fiscal pressures. As well, the province has a pool of sinking funds, which
    totaled over C$4.0 billion as at the end of fiscal 2012 that can be used for debt repayment if needed.

Credit concerns include our view of the following:

  • New Brunswick’s very high tax-supported debt burden (net of sinking funds), which rose further in fiscal 2012 to 149% of consolidated operating revenues or about 38% of GDP. We expect its tax-supported debt
    burden to peak at 155% of operating revenues in 2014.

  • Challenges stemming from long-term demographic trends that are likely to
    affect health care demand and revenue growth.

Fortunately, 38% of GDP is still a lot smaller than 120% of GDP.

There was a modest upward move in the Canadian preferred share market today, with PerpetualPremiums up 9bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 10bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was quite low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2183 % 2,304.9
FixedFloater 4.49 % 3.86 % 26,187 17.54 1 -0.0945 % 3,508.1
Floater 3.13 % 3.17 % 72,730 19.24 3 -0.2183 % 2,488.6
OpRet 4.79 % 2.48 % 36,066 1.02 5 0.3714 % 2,507.2
SplitShare 5.28 % -4.87 % 47,517 0.52 4 -0.2833 % 2,710.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3714 % 2,292.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.45 % 3.19 % 76,004 0.63 26 0.0874 % 2,229.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.03 % 5.05 % 123,185 15.28 7 0.0177 % 2,447.9
FixedReset 5.05 % 3.23 % 190,551 7.82 71 0.0202 % 2,388.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.03 % 3.86 % 146,980 2.90 45 0.0973 % 2,298.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
FTS.PR.E OpRet 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.74
Bid-YTW : 0.92 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.L FixedReset 246,838 Scotia crossed 75,000 at 26.80; Nesbitt crossed blocks of 109,700 and 60,000 at 26.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.85
Bid-YTW : 2.85 %
BMO.PR.O FixedReset 156,081 Scotia crossed 149,300 at 26.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.73
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %
TD.PR.C FixedReset 122,600 Desjardins crossed 119,800 at 26.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.01
Bid-YTW : 3.45 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 88,450 Desjardins crossed 70,000 at 25.55.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %
TD.PR.K FixedReset 61,580 Nesbitt crossed 60,000 at 26.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.92
Bid-YTW : 2.88 %
BNS.PR.X FixedReset 51,978 RBC crossed 50,000 at 26.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.66
Bid-YTW : 2.99 %
There were 18 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.C Floater Quote: 16.75 – 18.00
Spot Rate : 1.2500
Average : 0.7115

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-06-08
Maturity Price : 16.75
Evaluated at bid price : 16.75
Bid-YTW : 3.17 %

TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium Quote: 52.00 – 52.49
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.2933

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 52.00
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %

TCA.PR.X Perpetual-Premium Quote: 51.90 – 52.44
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.4137

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-15
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 51.90
Bid-YTW : 3.19 %

NA.PR.O FixedReset Quote: 26.90 – 27.25
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2455

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.90
Bid-YTW : 2.26 %

BAM.PR.R FixedReset Quote: 26.22 – 26.60
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.3065

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-06-08
Maturity Price : 23.60
Evaluated at bid price : 26.22
Bid-YTW : 3.62 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.24 – 26.47
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1591

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.24
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %

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