Category: Market Action

Market Action

September 15, 2015

“Markets, schmarkets!” says the US consumer, “Where can I spend what I just saved on gas?“:

Retail sales in the U.S. climbed for a second straight month, a sign consumers may be looking past recent volatility in financial markets.

The 0.2 percent increase in August followed a 0.7 percent gain in July that was larger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed Tuesday in Washington. The median forecast of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.3 percent advance.

Although confidence has taken a hit from stock-market turmoil and global-growth concerns, the data show households are still putting their savings from cheap energy to work. More jobs and higher pay would go a long way in supporting household spending, which Federal Reserve policy makers are watching as they consider raising interest rates as soon as this week.

The news whacked Treasuries:

Treasuries tumbled, lifting the two-year note yield to the highest since April 2011, as gains in U.S. retail sales prompted investors to retreat from the securities that would be most affected if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.

Sell orders in two- and five-year Treasury futures helped accelerate the move higher in yields amid investors’ concern that the Fed may raise rates as soon as Thursday for the first time since 2006. Yields rose the most in almost three weeks after data showed retail sales increased 0.2 percent in August while July’s gain was larger than previously reported. The figures signal consumers may be looking past recent financial-market volatility.

Treasury two-year note yields rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 0.80 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 0.625 percent security due in August 2017 fell 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 21/32.

Benchmark 10-year note yields rose 10 basis points to 2.29 percent.

Futures contracts show a 28 percent probability that the Fed will boost rates when it meets Sept. 16-17, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.The calculation is based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after the first increase, versus the current target of zero to 0.25 percent.

It was a mostly lousy day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 1bp, FixedResets down 58bp and DeemedRetractibles off 14bp. The Performance Highlights table is comprised almost entirely of losers. Volume was below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150915
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 20.00 to be $0.79 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $1.05 cheap at its bid price of 13.35.

impVol_MFC_150915
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility falling a bit today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 24.41 to be 0.48 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 19.95 to be 0.29 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150915
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.90 to be $1.37 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.44 and appears to be $0.99 rich.

impVol_FTS_150915
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.50, looks $0.57 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.74 and is $0.69 cheap.

pairs_FR_150915
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.08%, with no outliers. The distribution is no longer bimodal. There are no junk outliers below -2.00%, but two above 0.00%.

pairs_FF_150915
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0315 % 1,663.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0315 % 2,908.2
Floater 4.47 % 4.46 % 56,225 16.53 3 0.0315 % 1,768.2
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2572 % 2,782.8
SplitShare 4.62 % 5.03 % 63,003 3.07 3 0.2572 % 3,261.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2572 % 2,544.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.72 % 3.85 % 54,940 0.08 8 0.0198 % 2,492.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.45 % 5.55 % 69,845 14.55 30 0.0130 % 2,600.8
FixedReset 4.72 % 4.14 % 176,254 16.16 74 -0.5779 % 2,159.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.13 % 5.08 % 94,906 5.50 33 -0.1431 % 2,589.3
FloatingReset 2.47 % 3.89 % 50,759 5.91 9 -0.5791 % 2,161.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -2.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 21.70
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.62
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset -2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 3.48 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -2.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.07
Bid-YTW : 6.75 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset -1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 15.10
Evaluated at bid price : 15.10
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.71
Bid-YTW : 8.09 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 21.95
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 14.65
Evaluated at bid price : 14.65
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 20.45
Evaluated at bid price : 20.45
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 17.36
Evaluated at bid price : 17.36
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 21.37
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.02
Bid-YTW : 7.19 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 3.41 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.21
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 23.67
Evaluated at bid price : 23.94
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 13.35
Evaluated at bid price : 13.35
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 21.39
Evaluated at bid price : 21.71
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
BNS.PR.A FloatingReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.16
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.10
Bid-YTW : 8.30 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.77
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
NA.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 95,150 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.79
Bid-YTW : -1.86 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 86,685 Scotia crossed 25,000 at 18.90. Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at the same price.; RBC crossed 29,000 at the same price again.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 18.74
Evaluated at bid price : 18.74
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 71,390 Scotia crossed 60,000 at 21.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 21.32
Evaluated at bid price : 21.32
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 51,048 RBC crossed 45,000 at 21.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 50,768 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 25.65.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-04-27
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 39,990 RBC crossed 30,800 at 16.99.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 16.94
Evaluated at bid price : 16.94
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 19.89 – 20.95
Spot Rate : 1.0600
Average : 0.6101

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 19.89
Evaluated at bid price : 19.89
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 21.00 – 21.90
Spot Rate : 0.9000
Average : 0.6707

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %

SLF.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 18.02 – 18.55
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3767

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.02
Bid-YTW : 7.19 %

TD.PR.S FixedReset Quote: 24.21 – 24.64
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2794

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 3.48 %

BNS.PR.D FloatingReset Quote: 20.21 – 20.65
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2898

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.21
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %

BAM.PF.G FixedReset Quote: 22.44 – 22.81
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2284

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-15
Maturity Price : 21.95
Evaluated at bid price : 22.44
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %

Market Action

September 14, 2015

It’s nice to see an intelligently run bond ETF:

The Market Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (ANGL) is up 28 percent since its April 2012 inception, which is double the performance of the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) and the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD), as seen in the chart below.

Generally speaking, it really comes down to a value factor in bonds that ANGL has tapped into. When these bonds — typically issued by large companies such as Alcoa, Sprint, and Nokia — get downgraded from investment grade to high-yield, they tend to get oversold leading up to the downgrade. Much of this selling is from active managers and institutions getting rid of these bonds that they owned to keep up with their investment-grade benchmarks. This means extra selling pressure.

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market today, with PerpetualDiscounts down 24bp, FixedResets losing 43bp and DeemedRetractibles off 1bp. There is a fairly long Performance Highlights table dominated by losing FixedResets, but three TRP issues did well. Volume was below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150914
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 20.05 to be $0.61 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $0.91 cheap at its bid price of 13.50.

impVol_MFC_150914
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility falling a bit today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 24.36 to be 0.34 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 19.83 to be 0.63 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150914
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.90 to be $1.40 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.64 and appears to be $1.11 rich.

impVol_FTS_150914
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.48, looks $0.41 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.75 and is $0.80 cheap.

pairs_FR_150914
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.14%, with no outliers. Note that the distribution is bimodal, with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.28% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.95%. There are no junk outliers below -2.00%, but two above 0.00%.

pairs_FF_150914
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1895 % 1,662.8
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1895 % 2,907.3
Floater 4.47 % 4.43 % 56,826 16.58 3 0.1895 % 1,767.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2431 % 2,775.7
SplitShare 4.64 % 5.08 % 63,895 3.07 3 -0.2431 % 3,252.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2431 % 2,538.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.72 % 2.56 % 55,347 0.08 8 -0.0544 % 2,492.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.45 % 5.51 % 70,806 14.60 30 -0.2400 % 2,600.4
FixedReset 4.69 % 4.09 % 174,744 16.16 74 -0.4339 % 2,171.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.13 % 4.73 % 93,237 5.49 33 -0.0100 % 2,593.0
FloatingReset 2.45 % 3.81 % 50,703 5.91 9 -0.3237 % 2,173.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -3.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.70
Bid-YTW : 8.18 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -3.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.34
Bid-YTW : 9.34 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -2.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.83
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -2.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 20.89
Evaluated at bid price : 20.89
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -2.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 19.49
Evaluated at bid price : 19.49
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.63
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 7.02 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset -1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 6.20 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 19.48
Evaluated at bid price : 19.48
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 23.95
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 15.50
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.92
Bid-YTW : 8.45 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.98
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.02
Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.02
Bid-YTW : 7.83 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 20.71
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 22.83
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 21.03
Evaluated at bid price : 21.03
Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 16.90
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 21.78
Evaluated at bid price : 22.12
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.41
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 12.60
Evaluated at bid price : 12.60
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 2.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 13.50
Evaluated at bid price : 13.50
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 3.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 22.12
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 153,763 RBC crossed 150,000 at 20.43.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 96,384 Desjardins crossed 88,000 at 17.35.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.70
Bid-YTW : 8.18 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 72,600 Scotia crossed 50,000 at 16.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.02
Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
BNS.PR.A FloatingReset 68,150 Desjardins crossed 65,900 at 23.36.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 67,350 RBC crossed 48,100 at 21.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
BMO.PR.K Deemed-Retractible 60,864 TD crossed blocks of 45,900 and 10,500, both at 25.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.46
Bid-YTW : 2.41 %
There were 25 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 16.70 – 17.68
Spot Rate : 0.9800
Average : 0.6067

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.70
Bid-YTW : 8.18 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.75 – 23.49
Spot Rate : 0.7400
Average : 0.4915

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 22.49
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %

BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.51 – 22.05
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3461

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %

GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 14.92 – 15.39
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3020

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.92
Bid-YTW : 8.45 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 21.37 – 21.95
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.4193

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %

HSE.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 22.85 – 23.40
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.3911

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-14
Maturity Price : 22.22
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %

Market Action

September 11, 2015

Civil Forfeiture writ large! There can no longer be any doubt but that the War On Banks is nothing more than a populist tax-grab:

The Manhattan district attorney is sending $38 million taken in civil forfeiture from international banks in New York to cities and counties across the country to pay for testing 56,000 rape kits that have been collecting dust in police storage rooms for years.

The money comes from large settlements Mr. Vance’s office reached with international banks charged with violating United States sanctions, among them BNP Paribas, HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank. The office has amassed more than $800 million from these settlements, and Mr. Vance so far has used about $240 million to pay for local criminal justice programs, like providing computerized tablets to police officers and upgrading security in housing projects.

I’m pleased to learn that TSFA limits are becoming a campaign issue:

Just how much Canadians should be allowed to stash in their tax-free savings accounts is expected to become an election issue, after NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau repeated promises this week to roll back a Conservative budget measure that nearly doubled the contribution limit on such accounts.

In interviews with CBC’s Peter Mansbridge broadcast this week, both opposition leaders confirmed they would scrap the Conservative move, unveiled in this year’s federal budget, to increase the limit for a tax-free savings account (TFSA) from $5,500 to $10,000.

“The doubling of it is irresponsible,” Mr. Trudeau said. “It’s only the wealthiest Canadians who have $10,000 laying around at the end of the year that they can put into that.”

I just wish our economically illiterate chatteratti had a more coherent plan than ‘soak the rich’, but if we insist on enthroning politicians whose greatest achievement in life was being born, then we have to take what we get.

I have long been of the view that contribution limits are ridiculously high; the lifetime limit for all tax-advantaged savings should be set so that an annuity purchased at age 65 will replace 75% of the median Canadian family income of about $75,000. So that’s an income requirement of about $56,000, which requires about $1.1-million in capital right now, which implies annual contributions totalling about $23,000 with a constant 3% real growth rate over thirty years. And all this includes CPP!

If you don’t like those numbers, suggest your own and we can talk. But I see no reason why somebody with expectations exceeding these levels should be subsidized.

And, just as some light relief, here’s the latest installment of Spy vs. Spy:

When the Justice Department arrested the chairman of Temple University’s physics department this spring and accused him of sharing sensitive American-made technology with China, prosecutors had what seemed like a damning piece of evidence: schematics of sophisticated laboratory equipment sent by the professor, Xi Xiaoxing, to scientists in China.

The schematics, prosecutors said, revealed the design of a device known as a pocket heater. The equipment is used in semiconductor research, and Dr. Xi had signed an agreement promising to keep its design a secret.

But months later, long after federal agents had led Dr. Xi away in handcuffs, independent experts discovered something wrong with the evidence at the heart of the Justice Department’s case: The blueprints were not for a pocket heater.

It was a reasonably good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 3bp, FixedResets up 46bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 31bp. MFC FixedResets were notable on the good side of a relatively subdued Performance Highlights table. Volume was below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150911
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 20.30 to be $0.89 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $1.36 cheap at its bid price of 13.15.

impVol_MFC_150911
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility edging up a bit today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.M, resetting at +236bp on 2019-12-19, bid at 21.75 to be 0.42 rich, while MFC.PR.J, resetting at +261bp on 2018-3-19, is bid at 22.00 to be 0.38 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150911
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 17.08 to be $1.24 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.50 and appears to be $0.96 rich.

impVol_FTS_150911
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.85, looks $0.59 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.98 and is $0.76 cheap.

pairs_FR_150911
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.11%, with no outliers. Note that the distribution is bimodal, with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.26% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.90%. There is one junk outlier below -2.00% and two above 0.00%.

pairs_FF_150911
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5962 % 1,659.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5962 % 2,901.8
Floater 4.48 % 4.45 % 57,633 16.54 3 1.5962 % 1,764.3
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0135 % 2,782.4
SplitShare 4.63 % 4.92 % 63,045 3.08 3 -0.0135 % 3,260.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0135 % 2,544.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.72 % 5.50 % 57,276 1.99 8 0.0940 % 2,493.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.43 % 5.50 % 70,742 14.59 30 -0.0311 % 2,606.7
FixedReset 4.67 % 4.16 % 177,528 16.22 74 0.4648 % 2,181.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.13 % 4.46 % 93,582 0.85 33 0.3059 % 2,593.3
FloatingReset 2.93 % 4.29 % 52,847 5.84 9 0.4498 % 2,180.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -3.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.62
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -2.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.15
Bid-YTW : 8.24 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 15.78
Evaluated at bid price : 15.78
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.77
Bid-YTW : 9.50 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.36
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 22.62
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 20.45
Evaluated at bid price : 20.45
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 17.86
Evaluated at bid price : 17.86
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.30
Bid-YTW : 7.69 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.25
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 22.09
Evaluated at bid price : 22.65
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 6.26 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.17
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 10.67
Evaluated at bid price : 10.67
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 19.95
Evaluated at bid price : 19.95
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 21.79
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 10.60
Evaluated at bid price : 10.60
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 2.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 14.90
Evaluated at bid price : 14.90
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 2.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 17.08
Evaluated at bid price : 17.08
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 2.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.08
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 3.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.45
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 3.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 15.47
Evaluated at bid price : 15.47
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 3.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 3.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.P FixedReset 59,490 TD crossed 25,000 at 21.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 51,095 RBC bought 37,500 from TD at 22.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 21.99
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 49,308 TD crossed 10,000 at 21.74.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 21.37
Evaluated at bid price : 21.68
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 44,646 Desjardins crossed 39,700 at 24.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 3.33 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset 37,762 National bought 28,900 from Scotia at 20.32.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 20.37
Evaluated at bid price : 20.37
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 37,720 Scotia crossed 30,000 at 21.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
There were 24 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 23.17 – 23.79
Spot Rate : 0.6200
Average : 0.3989

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.17
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 22.00 – 22.95
Spot Rate : 0.9500
Average : 0.7555

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 21.63
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %

HSE.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 22.85 – 23.50
Spot Rate : 0.6500
Average : 0.4699

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 22.20
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %

IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.40 – 26.06
Spot Rate : 0.6600
Average : 0.4890

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-11
Maturity Price : 25.08
Evaluated at bid price : 25.40
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %

SLF.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 18.62 – 19.05
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2731

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.62
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %

MFC.PR.L FixedReset Quote: 20.45 – 20.95
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3640

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.45
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %

Market Action

September 10, 2015

CP Rail sold a century bond!

The railroad’s $900 million [USD] 100-year bond, sold with a coupon of 6.125 percent, shows how the once-troubled company has won over investor hearts and minds under new Chief Executive Officer Hunter Harrison, even as it embarks on a share-repurchase plan that would boost its debt load.

The century bond sale was the biggest by CP Rail since 1986. The company also issued $300 million in 20-year bonds with a 4.8 percent coupon. The average maturity on the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 15+ Year BBB US Corporate Index is 25 years with a yield of 5.5 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data. The last century bond was issued by Brazil’s Petrobras Global Finance in June with a 6.85 percent coupon, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Calgary-based Enbridge Inc., a pipeline operator, issued C$100 million ($76 million) of century bonds in Canada in 2012.

BMO has announced a major acquisition:

Bank of Montreal, Canada’s fourth-largest lender, agreed to buy General Electric Co.’s transportation finance business in the U.S. and Canada.

The unit had net earning assets of about C$11.5 billion ($8.7 billion) as of June 30, the Toronto-based bank said Thursday in a statement that didn’t disclose terms. The GE unit’s management team and about 600 employees will join Bank of Montreal, according to a presentation on the bank’s website.

Bank of Montreal’s agreement is the latest in a U.S. expansion that began in 1984 with its purchase of Chicago-based Harris Bank. The lender’s last major U.S. deal was its July 2011 takeover of Milwaukee-based Marshall & Ilsley Corp., which doubled deposits and branches and strengthened its commercial lending focus across the U.S. Midwest.

The relationship between ETFs, funds and crisis liquidity has been a hot issue. Barclays weighs in with some musings on ‘first-mover’ advantage:

Illiquidity in corporate bonds would in theory spell bad news for bond funds that promise investors the ability to immediately get out of their positions. The concern here is that once investors get a whiff of an impending mass selloff in bonds, they could potentially rush for the exits to try to get ahead of it.

With liquidity already low, that could put massive pressure on debt prices. Those who manage to squeeze through the keyhole first get rewarded for their speed but end up exacerbating this downward spiral. The slowest investors, meanwhile, get left with a portfolio of bonds that’s potentially much reduced in price.

By how much, you ask? Barclays estimates about 2 percent for funds that hold junk-rated corporate debt (boldface ours):

Mutual fund investors are, thus, faced with a first mover’s advantage to redeem in large selloff days because of a combination of inflated pricing and potential rebalancing costs. The magnitude of this advantage can be very meaningful economically. Assuming a 10 percent market shock leads to 10 percent outflows, we estimate that the first mover advantage is as much as 1.78 percent, or 1.61 percent from [net asset value] inflation and 0.17 percent from rebalancing costs.The benefit to early redeemers is effectively a tax on investors who remain invested through big downturns and ironically encourages demanding more liquidity.

They suggest a ‘scaled exit fee’:

“An “exit fee” that charges investors to withdraw their money from bond funds could arguably help slow theoretical outflows. (There is, of course, a converse argument that says such a fee would merely exacerbate the rush to the exit.) Barclays argues for a more refined approach that involves scaled fees:

Redemption fees are relatively straightforward and could be set such that they exactly neutralize the advantage of redeeming first in a down market. In our worst-case scenario, a redemption fee on the order of 2.0% would do the trick. That said, redemption fees are a somewhat blunt instrument. They penalize anyone withdrawing funds equally, regardless of how much liquidity the investor is demanding. Indeed, penalizing every investor based on a worst-case scenario may not be necessary. We believe a more nuanced approach would be to enforce minimum redemption fees according to a settlement schedule, with the minimum fee declining to zero as the investor allows settlement time to increase.

We wonder what the bond fund managers would say.

Well, PrefBlog says that, as stated, the idea is moronic, a typical product of a trading house that knows all about trading and nothing about investing.

What price will the redemption be at? Say you’ve got a million bucks in the fund and give me thirty days notice that you want out. So, notice period be damned, the price you’ll get is the day of actual redemption, thirty days hence. So should I sell securities now to raise the cash? Then I’ve got cash in the fund, which is kind of not the point of a fund (although the concept of fund investment is being increasingly circumscribed by liquidity rules and policies, as discussed on June 12). And I have to hold that cash in the fund for thirty days, reducing my duration and watching the market go up (because it always goes up in situations like this). So, nope, I’m not going to do it. I’m going to sell when I can get prices that will reasonably approximate the prices I use for determining the redemption value, which is to say, maybe half an hour prior to the close on the redemption date. So thirty day’s notice hasn’t done me a lot of good, has it?

The idea can be rescued by paying a blended price. Never mind “thirty day’s” notice, give me “twenty trading day’s” notice and agreed to get paid a blended price comprised of the NAV at the end of every equally weighted trading day. Then I can confidently sell 5% of your redemption value every day without screwing my other clients. There could be problems with this; if, for instance, a very large fund was to have a commitment to sell $10-million in preferreds for cash every day for the next twenty and this information becomes public … well, there won’t be much buying interest from other players for the next 15 trading days! So that’s got to be top-secret information … and in this business, ain’t nuthin’ top-secret.

A battle is brewing in the States over the right to bear screwdrivers:

Apple doesn’t publish repair manuals or sell parts to customers, and its warranty doesn’t apply if unauthorized repair damages its device. Samsung wouldn’t say why it doesn’t share repair information, though it makes some parts available to shops. Even John Deere gives only approved technicians access to the embedded software that controls systems in its machines. The manufacturers argue these limitations keep products working safely, and that copyright law lets them protect their intellectual property so it isn’t pirated.

“Bulls–t,” says Gay Gordon-Byrne, executive director of the Digital Right to Repair Coalition, based in North Haledon, N.J. “Repair is a profit center for a lot of companies, and sometimes it is more profitable than selling hardware.” Maintaining “repair monopolies,” she says, pushes up costs and makes customers more likely to simply junk old models for new ones. Apple charges $79 to replace an iPhone 4 battery. Repair website IFixit charges $20 for a battery and DIY kit for the same job.

Gordon-Byrne’s organization and advocates such as the Electronic Frontier Foundation are supporting bills introduced this year in Massachusetts, Minnesota, and New York that would require manufacturers to sell parts and provide manuals to hardware owners and independent repair shops. Separate efforts in Congress would amend the federal Digital Millennium Copyright Act by giving explicit permission for consumers to circumvent a manufacturer’s digital lock on its software for a lawful reason such as repair.

Times are tough in the dairy business:

Record prices last year primed farmers to bolster output in the U.S., where milk production in 2015 will reach 208.7 billion pounds—the fifth consecutive record-setting year. In April the EU, seeking to liberalize trade, removed quotas that had been in place for the past 30 years, leading to increased production from Ireland, the Netherlands, and the U.K. China is producing more milk thanks to investments such as a $140 million, 20,000-cow facility that China Modern Dairy Holdings, partly owned by private equity firm KKR, unveiled in 2013. The Chinese are also consuming stockpiled milk powder and importing less. Global milk supply grew 3.7 percent last year, almost triple the growth rate of 2013, the USDA says.

Overcapacity “is a long-term problem that a short-term fix won’t address,” says Robbie Turner, head of European markets at Rice Dairy International.

Nope, the only fix is to squeeze out the high-cost producers during times of oversupply, giving low-cost producers room to expand during times of undersupply. It’s called “economics”, though some prefer “competition”.

It was a mixed day in the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 1bp, FixedResets off 9bp and DeemedRetractibles up 2bp. FixedResets comprised the entire good side of the Performance Highlights table. Volume was very, awfully, miserably, disgustingly, quietly low.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150910
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 20.15 to be $0.94 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $1.21 cheap at its bid price of 13.15.

impVol_MFC_150910
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility falling a bit today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 24.26 to be 0.44 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 22.76 to be 0.36 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150910
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 17.01 to be $1.41 cheap. BAM.PF.F, resetting at +286bp on 2019-9-30 is bid at 22.70 and appears to be $0.93 rich.

impVol_FTS_150910
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.73, looks $0.45 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 19.13 and is $0.62 cheap.

pairs_FR_150910
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.17%, with no outliers. Note that the distribution is bimodal, with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.32% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.94%. There are two junk outliers below -2.00% and one above 0.00%.

pairs_FF_150910
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.8657 % 1,633.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.8657 % 2,856.2
Floater 4.49 % 4.57 % 58,488 16.20 3 -1.8657 % 1,736.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3523 % 2,782.8
SplitShare 4.62 % 4.92 % 63,980 3.08 3 0.3523 % 3,261.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3523 % 2,544.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.72 % 2.89 % 56,870 0.08 8 0.0693 % 2,491.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.42 % 5.50 % 71,363 14.59 30 0.0129 % 2,607.5
FixedReset 4.68 % 4.12 % 172,457 15.92 74 -0.0872 % 2,170.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.14 % 5.21 % 94,479 5.38 33 0.0189 % 2,585.4
FloatingReset 2.44 % 3.89 % 54,843 5.93 9 -0.2756 % 2,171.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 12.47
Evaluated at bid price : 12.47
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 10.50
Evaluated at bid price : 10.50
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset -2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.88
Evaluated at bid price : 22.32
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 14.56
Evaluated at bid price : 14.56
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 10.61
Evaluated at bid price : 10.61
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 17.01
Evaluated at bid price : 17.01
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 20.85
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.50
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.02
Bid-YTW : 7.84 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 10.45
Evaluated at bid price : 10.45
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.70
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.59
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.52
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 13.15
Evaluated at bid price : 13.15
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 14.15
Evaluated at bid price : 14.15
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 17.22
Evaluated at bid price : 17.22
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.58
Bid-YTW : 6.47 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.29
Evaluated at bid price : 21.58
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.27
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 20.15
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 15.52
Evaluated at bid price : 15.52
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 15.25
Evaluated at bid price : 15.25
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.56
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 19.73
Evaluated at bid price : 19.73
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 2.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 19.13
Evaluated at bid price : 19.13
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 7.87 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 40,520 RBC crossed 10,000 at 21.68; Scotia crossed 20,200 at 21.66.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 20,486 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 17.01
Evaluated at bid price : 17.01
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 16,684 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 19.57
Evaluated at bid price : 19.57
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 16,140 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.29
Evaluated at bid price : 21.58
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 16,089 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 10.61
Evaluated at bid price : 10.61
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 15,985 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
There were 6 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 20.75 – 21.60
Spot Rate : 0.8500
Average : 0.6733

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset Quote: 14.56 – 15.24
Spot Rate : 0.6800
Average : 0.5079

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 14.56
Evaluated at bid price : 14.56
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %

ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.02 – 23.51
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3381

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.73
Evaluated at bid price : 23.02
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 21.01 – 21.49
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3450

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.01
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %

GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.45 – 22.95
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3764

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %

MFC.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 20.63 – 21.45
Spot Rate : 0.8200
Average : 0.6975

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.63
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %

Market Action

September 9, 2015

The top news of the day is the unchanged BoC overnight rate:

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Inflation has evolved in line with the outlook in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the target range, reflecting year-over-year price declines for consumer energy products. Core inflation has been close to 2 per cent, with disinflationary pressures from economic slack being offset by transitory effects of the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar and some sector-specific factors. The dynamics of GDP growth in Canada outlined in July’s MPR also remain intact. The stimulative effects of previous monetary policy actions are working their way through the Canadian economy.

Canada’s resource sector continues to adjust to lower prices for oil and other commodities, with some spillover to the rest of the economy. These adjustments are complex and are expected to take considerable time. Economic activity continues to be underpinned by solid household spending and a firm recovery in the United States, with particular strength in the sectors of the U.S. economy that are important for Canadian exports.

Increasing uncertainty about growth prospects for China and other emerging-market economies, in contrast, is raising questions about the pace of the global recovery. This has contributed to heightened financial market volatility and lower commodity prices. Movements in the Canadian dollar are helping to absorb some of the impact of lower commodity prices and are facilitating the adjustments taking place in Canada’s economy. While the overall export picture is still uncertain, the latest data confirm that exchange rate-sensitive exports are regaining momentum.

Meanwhile, risks to financial stability are evolving as expected. Taking all of these developments into consideration, the Bank judges that the risks to the outlook for inflation remain within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. Therefore, the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Nice piece in the NYT magazine about the state of American campuses:

As Benjamin Ginsberg details in his 2011 book, ‘‘The Fall of the Faculty: The Rise of the All-Administrative University and Why It Matters,’’ a constantly expanding layer of university administrative jobs now exists at an increasing remove from the actual academic enterprise. It’s not unheard-of for colleges now to employ more senior administrators than professors. There are, of course, essential functions that many university administrators perform, but such an imbalance is absurd — try imagining a high school with more vice principals than teachers. This legion of bureaucrats enables a world of pitiless surveillance; no segment of campus life, no matter how small, does not have some administrator who worries about it. Piece by piece, every corner of the average campus is being slowly made congruent with a single, totalizing vision. The rise of endless brushed-metal-and-glass buildings at Purdue represents the aesthetic dimension of this ideology. Bent into place by a small army of apparatchiks, the contemporary American college is slowly becoming as meticulously art-directed and branded as a J. Crew catalog. Like Niketown or Disneyworld, your average college campus now leaves the distinct impression of a one-party state.

In the interest of fairness, here’s something for people who hate drones:

A new laser weapon that can burn up targets in just a few seconds recently melted and destroyed a test drone flying over California.

Known as the Compact Laser Weapons System, the futuristic, drone-shooting weapon is a smaller, more versatile version of the High Energy Laser Mobile Demonstrator (HEL MD), a system developed by Boeing to be mounted on top of U.S. Army vehicles.

It was another good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 24bp, FixedResets up 26bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 27bp. The lengthy Performance Highlights table was notable for a large population of winning FixedResets, but Floaters made a triumphant appearance at the summit. Volume was very low.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.52%, equivalent to 7.18% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.2%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 300bp, unchanged from the level reported September 2.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150909
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.93 to be $0.76 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $1.13 cheap at its bid price of 13.29.

impVol_MFC_150909
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility rising a bit today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 24.01 to be 0.32 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 19.92 to be 0.41 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150909
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 17.32 to be $1.10 cheap. BAM.PF.F, resetting at +286bp on 2019-9-30 is bid at 22.70 and appears to be $0.93 rich.

impVol_FTS_150909
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.27, looks $0.30 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.67 and is $0.79 cheap.

pairs_FR_150909
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.13%, with no outliers. Note that the distribution is bimodal, with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.29% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.91%. There are two junk outliers below -2.00% and one above 0.00%.

pairs_FF_150909
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 2.6165 % 1,664.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 2.6165 % 2,910.5
Floater 4.41 % 4.46 % 58,021 16.40 3 2.6165 % 1,769.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1493 % 2,773.0
SplitShare 4.64 % 5.03 % 66,212 3.09 3 0.1493 % 3,249.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1493 % 2,535.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.72 % 2.69 % 57,783 0.08 8 0.0297 % 2,489.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.42 % 5.52 % 72,447 14.60 30 0.2415 % 2,607.2
FixedReset 4.68 % 4.12 % 177,218 15.89 74 0.2629 % 2,172.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.14 % 5.21 % 97,239 5.50 33 0.2663 % 2,584.9
FloatingReset 2.44 % 3.84 % 55,594 5.93 9 0.2709 % 2,177.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -2.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -2.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 8.70 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 20.46
Evaluated at bid price : 20.46
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 13.29
Evaluated at bid price : 13.29
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 23.08
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 24.05
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.29
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.73
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.45
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.29
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 15.06
Evaluated at bid price : 15.06
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 21.52
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 4.41 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 14.85
Evaluated at bid price : 14.85
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.82
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.25
Bid-YTW : 7.66 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 15.35
Evaluated at bid price : 15.35
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 2.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 10.60
Evaluated at bid price : 10.60
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 10.82
Evaluated at bid price : 10.82
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 2.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.66
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 3.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 10.74
Evaluated at bid price : 10.74
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 129,791 RBC sold 10,000 to Scotia at 20.30 and crossed blocks of 38,300 and 38,000 at the same price. Scotia crossed 25,000 at the same price again.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 20.32
Evaluated at bid price : 20.32
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
TD.PF.F Perpetual-Discount 34,543 RBC crossed 15,000 at 24.49.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 24.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.45
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 32,490 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 8.70 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 27,938 Nesbitt crossed 22,600 at 22.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 21.93
Evaluated at bid price : 22.32
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount 26,116 RBC crossed 15,000 at 24.88.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 24.43
Evaluated at bid price : 24.82
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
GWO.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 22,960 Scotia crossed 20,000 at 25.21.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-10-09
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.16
Bid-YTW : -5.91 %
There were 13 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 20.70 – 21.45
Spot Rate : 0.7500
Average : 0.5631

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 19.92 – 20.41
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3350

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.92
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 19.93 – 20.49
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.4057

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-09
Maturity Price : 19.93
Evaluated at bid price : 19.93
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

BNS.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 21.50 – 21.83
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2019

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 24.01 – 24.48
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3673

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %

BMO.PR.R FloatingReset Quote: 22.37 – 22.70
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2318

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.37
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %

Market Action

September 8, 2015

In reaction to the trashing of five-hundred years of bankruptcy law as irrelevant, DBRS is proposing yet another tier of bank obligation for analytical purposes:

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) is proposing to introduce a Preferred Obligations Rating (POR), initially in jurisdictions where legislation is in place or is expected to be introduced under the European Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD). This rating would address the risk of default of particular obligations/exposures at certain banks that have a higher probability of remaining in a continuing bank in the event of the resolution of a troubled bank. Even though these preferred obligations may not be explicitly excluded from being bailed-in under the BRRD, DBRS expects them to receive preferential treatment relative to other senior obligations.

A preferred obligations rating would likely encompass, but not be limited to, the following obligations:

– Derivatives and collateralized exposures
– Payment and collection services
– Obligations of a bank as issuer of covered bonds, referred to as the covered bond attachment point in DBRS’s covered bond methodology
– Certain liquidity lines/ contingent liabilities

Some of these preferred obligations may be part of structured finance transactions and therefore have implications for DBRS’s structured finance ratings. DBRS notes as well that Article 79 of the BRRD protects, in all but extreme circumstances, structured finance arrangements from being broken up or amended.

Covered bonds are explicitly excluded from bail-in, and Article 79 of the BRRD applies to covered bonds as well as structured finance arrangements. In addition, DBRS expects the likelihood that the covered bond programme remains part of a continuing bank in resolution to be high if the covered bond programme is considered part of the bank’s critical functions. Hence, the attachment point for a covered bond is expected to be higher than the rating of senior bonds.

Geez, I wish they’d stayed away from the word “preferred”!

Here’s the latest in 3-D printing news:

Britain’s navy could be using a fleet of unmanned surface and underwater vessels and small 3D-printed ships within 15 years, according to a report from the former government defense-research laboratory, Qinetiq Group Plc.

Three-dimensional printing of craft up to 15-meters (50 feet) long and formed from layers of metal and plastic powder would permit cheaper and quicker production, according to the Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 report, published Monday. Navies could also use the process to print mission-critical equipment at sea, allowing them to spend less time in dock.

And, since talk about 3-D printing immediately brings drones to mind, here’s a good Thanksgiving project for all you home handy-men out there: The Swarm Manned Aerial Vehicle Multirotor Super Drone Flying:

The Swarm man carrying multi-rotor airborne flight testing montage. 54 counter-rotation propellers, six grouped control channels with KK2.15 stabilization. Take off weight 148kg, max lift, approx. 164kg. Endurance10 minutes. Power approx. 22KW.

Just a bit of fun for my self, never intended for making a significant journey or flying much above head height. Approx cost £6000.

It was good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 21bp, FixedResets winning 27bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 2bp. The Performance Highlights table is notable for its contingent of TRP winners, which have been hit relatively hard through the last month of the downturn. Volume was very low.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150908
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.86 to be $0.67 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $1.02 cheap at its bid price of 13.45.

impVol_MFC_150908
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility rising a bit today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 24.14 to be 0.52 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 19.73 to be 0.42 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150908
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 17.29 to be $1.06 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.50 and appears to be $0.92 rich.

impVol_FTS_150908
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.25, looks $0.52 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.57 and is $0.62 cheap.

pairs_FR_150908
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.11%, with no outliers; not only that, but all data points are negative! Note that the distribution is bimodal, with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.32% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.81%. There are two junk outliers below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_150908
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6026 % 1,622.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6026 % 2,836.3
Floater 4.52 % 4.60 % 58,358 16.13 3 -0.6026 % 1,724.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0949 % 2,768.9
SplitShare 4.65 % 5.08 % 65,694 3.09 3 -0.0949 % 3,245.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0949 % 2,531.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.73 % 3.48 % 58,561 0.08 8 -0.0099 % 2,488.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.44 % 5.51 % 73,699 14.59 30 0.2147 % 2,600.9
FixedReset 4.69 % 4.14 % 178,868 15.98 74 0.2662 % 2,167.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.15 % 5.26 % 99,946 5.50 33 0.0202 % 2,578.0
FloatingReset 2.44 % 3.91 % 54,279 5.93 9 -0.1677 % 2,171.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible -1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.45
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 10.36
Evaluated at bid price : 10.36
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.27
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.73
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 14.40
Evaluated at bid price : 14.40
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.53
Evaluated at bid price : 21.53
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.52
Bid-YTW : 7.96 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.09
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 14.65
Evaluated at bid price : 14.65
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 6.53 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.41
Evaluated at bid price : 21.74
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.04
Evaluated at bid price : 21.04
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.01
Bid-YTW : 7.85 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.95
Bid-YTW : 8.18 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.42
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 22.30
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 2.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 13.45
Evaluated at bid price : 13.45
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 2.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 17.28
Evaluated at bid price : 17.28
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 2.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 18.03
Evaluated at bid price : 18.03
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 3.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 3.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 12.77
Evaluated at bid price : 12.77
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.D FixedReset 46,900 RBC crossed 39,200 at 23.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
RY.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 16,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 23.99
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount 15,833 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 24.41
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
TD.PF.F Perpetual-Discount 15,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 23.99
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 15,131 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 13.45
Evaluated at bid price : 13.45
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 14,265 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
There were 10 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 21.53 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 1.4700
Average : 0.9484

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.53
Evaluated at bid price : 21.53
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 16.01 – 16.88
Spot Rate : 0.8700
Average : 0.6017

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.01
Bid-YTW : 7.85 %

BMO.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 21.35 – 22.08
Spot Rate : 0.7300
Average : 0.4733

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %

FTS.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 21.04 – 21.69
Spot Rate : 0.6500
Average : 0.3999

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 21.04
Evaluated at bid price : 21.04
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %

IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.41 – 25.99
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.3619

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %

TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 17.28 – 18.00
Spot Rate : 0.7200
Average : 0.5049

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-08
Maturity Price : 17.28
Evaluated at bid price : 17.28
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %

Market Action

September 4, 2015

The Boston Fed published a paper by Eva Liebmann and Joe Peek titled Global Standards for Liquidity Regulation:

Liquidity risk has received increased attention recently, especially in light of the 2007 – 2009 financial crisis, when banks’ extensive reliance on short-term funding, maturity mismatches between assets and liabilities, and insufficient liquidity buffers made them quite susceptible to liquidity risk. To mitigate such risk, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) introduced an improved global capital framework and new global liquidity standards for banks in December 2010 in the form of the new Basel Accord (Basel III). This brief offers insights from the crisis experience, identifies the problems that the new liquidity regulation aims to address, and summarizes underlying differences between the United States and Europe that may affect the ability to design and implement consistent global standards.

Regrettably, there is only a brief nod to the role of the central banks:

In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve (like some other central banks) replaced funding normally provided in these money markets by using a mix of traditional and less traditional policy tools, including emergency liquidity facilities. Carlson et al. (2015) argue in this context that liquidity regulations combined with other regulatory tools are important complements to the LOLR tool and are particularly valuable in mitigating moral hazard. While the existence of the LOLR is important during a systemic shock such as the 2007–2009 financial crisis, it is as important to have in place at individual financial institutions liquidity buffers that can be run down in response to an idiosyncratic shock.

The referenced “Carlson et al.” paper is by Mark Carlson, Burcu Duygan-Bump, and William Nelson, titled Why Do We Need Both Liquidity Regulations and a Lender of Last Resort? A Perspective from Federal Reserve Lending during the 2007–09 U.S. Financial Crisis:

During the 2007–09 financial crisis, there were severe reductions in the liquidity of financial markets, runs on the shadow banking system, and destabilizing defaults and near-defaults of major financial institutions. In response, the Federal Reserve, in its role as lender of last resort (LOLR), injected extraordinary amounts of liquidity. In the aftermath, lawmakers and regulators have taken steps to reduce the likelihood that such lending would be required in the future, including the introduction of liquidity regulations. These changes were motivated in part by the argument that central bank lending entails extremely high costs and should be made unnecessary by liquidity regulations. By contrast, some have argued that the loss of liquidity was the result of market failures, and that central banks can solve such failures by lending, making liquidity regulations unnecessary. In this paper, we argue that LOLR lending and liquidity regulations are complementary tools. Liquidity shortfalls can arise for two very different reasons: First, sound institutions can face runs or a deterioration in the liquidity of markets they depend on for funding. Second, solvency concerns can cause creditors to pull away from troubled institutions. Using examples from the recent crisis, we argue that central bank lending is the best response in the former situation, while orderly resolution (by the institution as it gets through the problem on its own or via a controlled failure) is the best response in the second situation. We also contend that liquidity regulations are a necessary tool in both situations: They help ensure that the authorities will have time to assess the nature of the shortfall and arrange the appropriate response, and they provide an incentive for banks to internalize the externalities associated with any liquidity risks.

These authors acknowledge the politicized nature of the regulatory change:

The scale of Federal Reserve intervention in financial markets during the crisis generated considerable controversy, and U.S. lawmakers and regulators subsequently took various steps to reduce the chances of a future financial crisis and to reduce the likelihood that lending by the Federal Reserve would be required in the future even if there were a financial crisis. For example, as part of the Basel III liquidity and capital rules, liquidity regulations were implemented that require banks to maintain more liquid balance sheets. Additionally, to prevent Federal Reserve loans from being used to support failing institutions, the authority of the Federal Reserve to provide emergency liquidity to individual nonbank institutions was eliminated.

Part of the motivation for these regulatory and legal changes was the view that central bank lending was itself a bad thing—that the loans were bailouts of financial institutions that protected them from the consequences of their risky behavior. Within the economic literature, moral hazard is seen as the principle cost associated with central bank lending as it encourages institutions to take on more risk than they would otherwise.3 Some have also criticized this lending on the grounds that it pushed central bank policy into fiscal policy and threatened the independence of the Federal Reserve.4 These concerns have led to proposals by some to eliminate even the remaining emergency authority of the Federal Reserve to lend in “unusual and exigent circumstances.”5

The view that LOLR loans are “bailouts of financial institutions” is indeed common: it is held, for example, by Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives senior economist David Macdonald:

“At some point during the crisis, three of Canada’s banks — CIBC, BMO, and Scotiabank — were completely under water, with government support exceeding the market value of the company,” Macdonald said.

“Without government supports to fall back on, Canadian banks would have been in serious trouble.”

One of the most well-known ways in which policymakers helped the banks during the crisis is through a $69-billion CMHC program whereby the housing agency took mortgages off the balance sheets of big Canadian banks. In contrast with other support facilities, all of the funds granted by the CMHC were through selling assets (in this case mortgages) to the housing agency. They were not funds that had to be paid back.

“The federal government claims it was offering the banks ‘liquidity support,’ but it looks an awful lot like a bailout to me,” says Macdonald.

“It would have been cheaper to buy every single share in these companies,” Macdonald said.

However, neither I nor any thinking person should be swayed by the screaming of slogan chanters with insufficient economic expertise to differentiate between insolvency and illiquidity. The fact that the Fed paper takes such pig-ignorant ravings into account for public policy purposes detracts from the credibility of the paper.

Getting back to the Fed paper, Assiduous Readers will recall that I subscribe to the classical view:

The literature on the LOLR similarly provides a long range of these alternative views, which are well summarized in Freixas et al. (1999) and Bordo (1990). The classical position, often attributed to Bagehot (1873) and Thornton (1802), is that the LOLR should provide funding freely to illiquid but solvent institutions against high-quality collateral and at a penalty rate to allay a panic. However, the literature is full of papers pointing to the difficulties of distinguishing between liquidity and solvency problems, especially during a crisis, as well as the potential problems with how to define and impose a penalty rate (see, for instance, Goodhart, 1999).

These issues lead, on the one extreme, to the view that the Federal Reserve should only provide liquidity to the market as a whole via open market operations, but not to individual banks, since liquidity would then be allocated to individual, creditworthy banks via the interbank market (see Goodfriend and King, 1988; Bordo, 1990; and Schwartz, 1992 and 1995). On the other extreme is the view that the LOLR will have to assist illiquid and insolvent institutions at times, and that lending should not be at a penalty rate because the elevated rate could worsen the problems of a bank receiving support (see Goodhart, 1985 and 1987; Goodhart and Schoenmaker, 1995). The literature also has a long discussion of the moral hazard consequences as a cost that offsets the benefit of central bank lending as noted in Freixas et al. (1999), though there is also a range of perspectives that point out that the collapse of liquidity is a market failure and the central bank provision of liquidity is a public good. For instance, Holmstrom and Tirole (1998) note that public insurance against aggregate risks should allow firms to undertake more profitable activities with higher social return. Others note that there is no moral hazard as long as central banks provide the liquidity against properly priced collateral (for example, Buiter, 2007) or that moral hazard can be managed by various policies, such as constructive ambiguity (for example, Freixas, 1999) and regulations (for example, Cao and Illing, 2011).

Our paper’s main contribution to the literature is to reconcile these different perspectives by thinking of central bank lending as encompassing two very different types of liquidity demands and using that as a guide to think about the right mix of LOLR and regulatory tools. Moreover, our discussion on the Federal Reserve’s experience during the crisis also illustrates some of the key real-time issues faced by a LOLR that arise during a crisis and the associated limitations of a
LOLR as a policy tool.

I’ll keep reading and keep thinking … but currently I lean towards the view that the liquidity regulations largely exist as a politicized response to criticism from the ignorant and those who cynically manipulate the ignorant to serve their other political interests.

So I’ll take solace in the growing recognition that circuit-breakers do not work as intended. Sadly, the response to ‘rules not working’ appears to be ‘more rules’:

When stocks were halted on Aug. 24, the result caused mayhem for many large ETFs because they became unmoored from their underlying share prices. The result was exaggerated swings in ETF prices, in excess of 40 per cent in some cases.

This week, securities officials said they were considering changes to the measures meant to control extreme volatility. “Everything is on the table,” said Steve Crutchfield, head of exchange-traded products at the New York Stock Exchange. In Canada, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada recently produced new guidance on stock price thresholds to reduce unexplained volatility. The new guidance is designed to prevent orders from being executed at prices more than 10 per cent different from market prices on ETFs and actively traded stocks.

Meanwhile, the US jobs number was entertainingly ambiguous:

Data today showed U.S. employers added 173,000 workers in August and the jobless rate dropped to 5.1 percent. The gain in payrolls, while less than forecast, followed advances in July and June that were stronger than previously reported. The unemployment rate is the lowest since April 2008. Average hourly earnings climbed more than forecast and workers put in a longer workweek, the report also showed.

The jobs report is the last major data point before the Fed meets later this month on Sept. 16-17 to discuss the timing of its first increase in interest rates in nearly a decade. Investors raised bets on a September liftoff to 30 percent from 26 percent before the jobs data, while that’s still less than the 48 percent odds predicted before China devalued the yuan on Aug. 11.

Fed Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said the central bank should end the era of record-low interest rates, now that the impacts from winter weather and energy prices have passed. He said labor-market slack has been reduced to pre-recession levels, and shorter-term inflation measures are tracking the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target.

“It’s time to align our monetary policy with the significant progress we have made,” Lacker said in the text of a speech in Richmond.

The Canadian number was considered encouraging by some:

For months now, Mr. Poloz has been anxiously waiting for lower interest rates, the cheaper dollar and a resurgent U.S. economy to take the sting out of the oil-price collapse.

Mr. Poloz finally got a hint of that in the July trade numbers. Canadian merchandise exports grew 2.3 per cent, paced by double-digit gains in autos and aircraft. That helped shrink the trade deficit to its lowest level since last November.

And on Friday there was more evidence that Canada’s slump was fleeting, and distinctly unrecession-like. The economy generated another 12,000 jobs in August, proving the country’s labour market remains surprisingly resilient. The gains were paced by new full-time and government jobs.

… and less encouraging by others:

The Canadian dollar closed at 75.39 cents (U.S.) on Friday, down 0.40 cents from Thursday.

The loonie was under pressure after a lacklustre Labour Force Survey was released from Statistics Canada. The jobs report shows employment in Canada was little changed in August. Last month, Canada added a mere 12,000 jobs or an increase of 0.1 per cent to the labour force. Despite the increase, national unemployment ticked up 0.2 percentage points to 7.0 per cent, as more people in Canada searched for a job.

The loonie was also dragged by lower oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down 70 cents (U.S.) at $46.05 (U.S.).

Markets on both sides of the border will be closed on Monday to mark Labour Day. An announcement from the Bank of Canada on interest rates and a release Wednesday, from Statistics Canada, of key housing starts and building permits data for July could affect the Canadian dollar next week.

R Split III Corp, proud issuer of RBS.PR.B, was confirmed at Pfd-2 by DBRS:

The main form of credit enhancement available to the Preferred Shares is a buffer of downside protection. Downside protection corresponds to the percentage decline in the market value of the Portfolio that must be experienced before the Preferred Shares would be in a loss position. The amount of downside protection available to the Preferred Shares as of August 27, 2015, is 72.3%.

The dividend coverage ratio is approximately 3.1 times. Other key rating factors include the downside protection stability in recent months, the credit quality and concentration of the Portfolio in one asset and the approaching maturity date of the Preferred Shares. Based on these considerations and aforementioned performance metrics, DBRS has confirmed the Pfd-2 rating of the Preferred Shares.

Dividend 15 Split Corp., proud issuer of DFN.PR.A, was confirmed at Pfd-3 by DBRS:

The payment of the Class A Share distributions results in an average annual grind on the Portfolio NAV of approximately 6.2% over the next four years. No monthly distributions to the Class A Shares will be made if the dividends of the Preferred Shares are in arrears or if the NAV of the Company falls below 1.5 times the principal amount of the outstanding Preferred Shares. Furthermore, no special distributions will be made if the NAV of the Company is below $25.

The amount of downside protection available to the Preferred Shares as of August 28, 2015, is 52.1%. The Preferred Share dividend coverage ratio is approximately 1.1 times.

One particular strength of the Portfolio is the consistency of dividend distributions of the underlying companies to date. Some potential areas of concern include the Portfolio concentration in the financial services and insurance industry. In addition, volatility of prices and possible future changes in the dividend policies of the underlying companies in the Portfolio may result in reductions in downside protection and dividend coverage.

Based on these considerations and the aforementioned performance metrics, DBRS confirms the Pfd-3 rating of the Dividend 15 Split Corp. Preferred Shares.

It was another good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 24bp, FixedResets winning 52bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 4bp. The Performance Highlights table is suitably long. Volume was infinitesimal, as practitioners of the highest paid profession on earth took the day off enjoy the sunshine and complain about the poor service at patio bars.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150904
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.70 to be $0.86 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $0.97 cheap at its bid price of 13.13.

impVol_MFC_150904
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility dropping a bit again today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 24.18 to be 0.44 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 22.75 to be 0.27 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150904
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 17.40 to be $0.93 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 20.80 and appears to be $0.97 rich.

impVol_FTS_150904
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 18.85, looks $0.35 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.45 and is $0.49 cheap.

pairs_FR_150904
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.01%, with no outliers; not only that, but all data points are negative! Note that the distribution is bimodal, with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.28% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.64%. There are two junk outliers below -1.80% and one above +0.20%.

pairs_FF_150904
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.6225 % 1,632.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.6225 % 2,853.5
Floater 4.50 % 4.56 % 58,007 16.22 3 -1.6225 % 1,734.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0948 % 2,771.5
SplitShare 4.64 % 5.05 % 65,008 3.10 3 -0.0948 % 3,248.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0948 % 2,534.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.73 % 2.71 % 58,767 0.08 8 -0.0445 % 2,489.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.45 % 5.50 % 74,244 14.61 30 0.2441 % 2,595.3
FixedReset 4.70 % 4.14 % 181,049 16.09 74 0.5248 % 2,161.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.15 % 5.22 % 101,067 5.52 33 0.0379 % 2,577.5
FloatingReset 2.43 % 3.80 % 52,532 5.95 9 0.0487 % 2,174.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater -2.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 10.36
Evaluated at bid price : 10.36
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 7.99 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 20.71
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 10.66
Evaluated at bid price : 10.66
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.65
Bid-YTW : 8.37 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 20.86
Evaluated at bid price : 20.86
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.43
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.97
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 20.04
Evaluated at bid price : 20.04
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.06
Evaluated at bid price : 21.06
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 22.51
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 12.38
Evaluated at bid price : 12.38
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.39
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.06
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 22.43
Evaluated at bid price : 22.69
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 15.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 14.45
Evaluated at bid price : 14.45
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 2.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 16.86
Evaluated at bid price : 16.86
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 2.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 14.25
Evaluated at bid price : 14.25
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 55,869 RBC crossed blocks of 25,000 and 24,800, both at 25.04.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-10-04
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 3.52 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 55,398 RBC crossed blocks of 32,500 and 13,000, both at 16.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 41,849 RBC bought 16,800 from Scotia at 16.93.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 31,657 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.89
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 30,165 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 7.99 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 15,329 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 14.25
Evaluated at bid price : 14.25
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
There were 7 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 16.65 – 17.80
Spot Rate : 1.1500
Average : 0.6845

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.65
Bid-YTW : 8.37 %

NA.PR.W FixedReset Quote: 21.06 – 21.84
Spot Rate : 0.7800
Average : 0.5364

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.06
Evaluated at bid price : 21.06
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %

RY.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 23.40 – 24.00
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.3739

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 22.51
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %

HSE.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 22.50 – 23.20
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.4961

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.71 – 21.20
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3122

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 20.71
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.40 – 21.93
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3574

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-04
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %

Market Action

September 3, 2015

So, are the oil sands now a white elephant?

The last place oil producers want to be when prices plummet to profit-demolishing lows is midstream on a billion-dollar project in one of the costliest parts of the planet to extract crude.

Yet that’s exactly where half a dozen oil sands operators from Suncor Energy Inc. to Brion Energy Corp. find themselves with prices for Canadian oil now hovering around $30 a barrel. While all around them projects have been postponed or canceled, their investments were judged too far along when the oil game suddenly moved from offense to defense.

These projects will add at least another 500,000 barrels a day — roughly a 25 percent increase from Alberta — to an oversupplied North American market by 2017.

A general rule of thumb says new plants require a West Texas Intermediate price of $80 a barrel to break even. Western Canada Select, a blend of heavy Alberta crude, is currently selling at a discount of about $14 a barrel to the WTI benchmark, which closed at $46.75 Thursday in New York.

Returns on capital invested by Canada’s largest oil-sands producers reached 20 percent at some points over the past five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That figure is now closer to zero or negative for companies such as Athabasca Oil Co. and Cenovus.

There are two things you can sell in this world: entertainment and things. Don’t sell things:

In most AT&T, Sprint, or T-Mobile stores, it takes a while to find the ZTE phones, buried in the back, past the latest from Apple and Samsung. But they’re there. In AT&T stores it’s the ZTE Maven, which has a screen, speakers, and a processor with capabilities somewhere between the iPhone 5 and 6. As Tony Greco, ZTE’s head of U.S. retail marketing, puts it, “These were state-of-the-art features two years ago.” The Maven’s draw, really, is price. Without any subsidies from a wireless carrier, the phone costs just $60. And it’s not even one of the company’s cheaper models.

ZTE is quietly becoming a force in the U.S. by selling good enough phones at low prices—smaller prepaid smartphones for $30, basic phones with QWERTY keyboards for about the same, and so on. The Chinese company’s products are among the cheap phones of choice at three of the big four U.S. carriers. (Verizon doesn’t carry them.) ZTE claimed about 8 percent of America’s smartphone market in the second quarter of this year, says researcher IDC, up from 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2014. That ranks the company fourth among smartphone makers overall, behind Apple, Samsung, and LG. “We came from nowhere, and now we are a solid force,” says Lixin Cheng, head of ZTE’s U.S. operations.

So the question of the day is: if you pay quintuple price, can you really say you’ve bought a “smart” ‘phone?

Thanks to a new thesaurus, I now have many more words to describe the preferred share market:

Let’s let Rajna Gibson Brandon and Christopher Hemmens from the University of Geneva and the University of St. Gallen’s Mathieu Trepanier explain:

“We find that market irrationality has a signicantly negative effect on subsequent stock market returns — proxied by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average — and exacerbates stock market volatility,” they write in a new research paper. “The full impact takes time to manifest with small downturns at first culminating in a significant negative impact after three days followed by a weak reversal almost a week later.”

By “market irrationality” they are referring specifically to the types of words appearing in the financial press that, to use some fancy words, may prove to be parlous augers for stock prices. They list 141 words, but some of the favorites around here are “bonkers,” “barbarous,” “berserk,” “daft,” “perverse” and “psycho.” (Yes, a lot of words beginning with “b,” the Greek equivalent of which is “beta.”)

Brompton Split Banc Corp., proud issuer of SBC.PR.A was confirmed at Pfd-3(high) by DBRS:

The main form of credit enhancement available to the Preferred Shares is a buffer of downside protection. Downside protection corresponds to the percentage decline in market value of the Portfolio that must be experienced before the Preferred Shares would be in a loss position. The amount of downside protection available to the Preferred Shares as of August 6, 2015, is 55.8%.

In the past year, the performance of the Company has been stable. Current dividend coverage is 1.65 times. Quarterly Preferred Share and monthly Capital Share distributions have remained unchanged since 2013. Other key rating considerations include the credit quality, volatility and diversification of the Portfolio as well as changes in the dividend policies of the underlying companies in the Portfolio.

Based on the aforementioned considerations and performance metrics, DBRS confirms the Pfd-3 (high) rating of the Preferred Shares issued by Brompton Split Banc Corp.

Canadian Banc Corp., proud issuer of BK.PR.A, was confirmed at Pfd-3(high) by DBRS:

The main form of credit enhancement available to the Preferred Shares is a buffer of downside protection. The amount of downside protection available to the Preferred Shares as of August 26, 2015, is 53.4%. The Preferred Share dividend coverage ratio is approximately 1.18 times.

Although the credit quality of the underlying assets of the Portfolio is strong, the Portfolio is concentrated in the financial services industry. As a result, its value has recently seen a slight deterioration due to the weak performance of common shares of the six Canadian Banks since the beginning of 2015. The floating nature of dividend distributions to Preferred Shares and Class A Shares, although mitigated by predetermined ranges of dividend yields, may potentially increase the volatility of the protection available to holders of the Preferred Shares in a high interest rate environment.

Based on these considerations and aforementioned performance metrics, DBRS confirms the Pfd-3 (high) rating of the Canadian Banc Corp. Preferred Shares.

It was another fine day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 12bp, FixedResets winning 45bp and DeemedRetractibles up 16bp. The Performance Highlights table is notable for having very few losers today. Volume was very low.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150903
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.67 to be $0.93 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $0.83 cheap at its bid price of 13.10.

impVol_MFC_150903
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility dropping a bit again today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 24.00 to be 0.30 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 19.77 to be 0.31 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150903
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 17.07 to be $1.26 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 20..85 and appears to be $1.02 rich.

impVol_FTS_150903
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 18.80, looks $0.46 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.30 and is $0.50 cheap.

pairs_FR_150903
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.94%, with no outliers. Note that the distribution is bimodal, with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.25% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.51%. There is one junk outlier below -1.80% and one above +0.20%.

pairs_FF_150903
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2490 % 1,658.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2490 % 2,900.5
Floater 4.42 % 4.50 % 56,166 16.34 3 -0.2490 % 1,763.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1221 % 2,774.2
SplitShare 4.64 % 4.87 % 66,031 3.10 3 0.1221 % 3,251.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1221 % 2,536.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.72 % 5.42 % 59,641 2.01 8 0.0594 % 2,490.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.46 % 5.52 % 75,759 14.63 30 0.1244 % 2,589.0
FixedReset 4.73 % 4.20 % 178,014 16.09 74 0.4543 % 2,150.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.15 % 5.08 % 102,708 5.52 33 0.1619 % 2,576.5
FloatingReset 2.43 % 3.80 % 49,700 5.95 9 -0.0216 % 2,173.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 14.16
Evaluated at bid price : 14.16
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 22.07
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.06
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 22.95
Evaluated at bid price : 24.45
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 17.07
Evaluated at bid price : 17.07
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 22.45
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 22.62
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 12.21
Evaluated at bid price : 12.21
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.45
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 17.68
Evaluated at bid price : 17.68
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 13.10
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.76
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 2.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 2.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 3.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 99,506 RBC crossed blocks of 47,200 and 30,000, both at 19.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.77
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 72,000 RBC crossed 50,000 at 21.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.28
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 69,410 RBC sold 12,200 to anonymous at 25.62; 10,000 to TD at 25.62, and another 20,000 to TD at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-04-27
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 55,881 RBC crossed 50,000 at 23.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.78
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 42,250 Desjardins crossed 36,800 at 20.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 20.24
Evaluated at bid price : 20.24
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 34,467 RBC crossed 30,000 at 22.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.53
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
There were 18 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
RY.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 22.72 – 24.00
Spot Rate : 1.2800
Average : 1.0892

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 22.10
Evaluated at bid price : 22.72
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %

RY.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 21.55 – 22.25
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.5119

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset Quote: 14.16 – 15.14
Spot Rate : 0.9800
Average : 0.8062

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 14.16
Evaluated at bid price : 14.16
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.30 – 22.85
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.3983

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 22.07
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %

HSE.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 22.31 – 22.90
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.4392

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 19.80 – 20.37
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.4658

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-03
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %

Market Action

September 2, 2015

Here’s a sign of the times from Pengrowth:

Pengrowth’s (TSX:PGF)(NYSE:PGH) Board of Directors has approved a change to the Company’s dividend policy, moving to a quarterly payment at a rate of $0.01 per share per quarter ($0.04 per share annually), as a result of the continued weakness in commodity prices. With the macro environment continuing to deteriorate and given the outlook for a prolonged weakness in commodity prices, the Company believes that it is prudent to preserve capital and accelerate its efforts to reduce overall indebtedness.

The new dividend policy will take effect following the payment of the $0.02 per share dividend payable on September 15, 2015 with the first quarterly payment expected to be paid on December 15, 2015.

Pengrowth remains committed to taking actions to ensure the Company lives within its cash flow and looking at all options to reduce its overall indebtedness. Today’s dividend reduction is consistent with all of the measures the Company has taken in 2015 to counter the impact of falling prices and preserve its financial liquidity.

These measures include:

  • •A 78 percent reduction in anticipated 2015 capital spending compared to 2014.
  • •Targeted non-core asset sales of $600 million in 2015.
  • •Continued focus on capital cost reductions, resulting in a 20 to 25 percent reduction for most types of services.
  • •Ongoing staffing re-alignments with a seven percent reduction in head office full-time staff in the last nine months.
  • •Commitment to ongoing hedging efforts to protect future cash flows and capital programs.

In the absence of stronger commodity prices, Pengrowth would expect 2016 capital spending to be under $100 million.

And here’s another sign of the times from Rob Carrick:

If you think the stock market has been nasty lately, you should check out what preferred shares have gone through.

It’s a slaughter, really. These supposedly low-risk widow-and-orphan stocks are in a bear market that looks much worse than what the broader market has been through. The S&P/TSX composite index was down 11.3 per cent for the 12 months to Aug. 31, while the S&P/TSX preferred share index was down 19.5 per cent. The composite has made 15.5 per cent in total for the five years to Aug. 31, while the pref share index is down about 21 per cent.

Regrettably, the piece states:

What will bring the pref market back this time? Possibly the 5.5 per cent yield now being generated by the preferred share index. At a time when five-year Government of Canada bonds yield 0.75 per cent, that’s quite the value proposition.

The 5.5% yield must be Current Yield; while I consider the conclusion reasonable enough, the use of inapplicable data to support it detracts from the article. It should also be noted that Mr. Carrick’s quoted returns are based on price indices, rather than total return, which makes a bit of a difference! The following table by no means changes the conclusion, but is a bit more precise:

Comparison of ^SPTSX and ^TXPR
Index 1-Year 5-Year
Cumulative
Price Indices
^SPTSX -11.31% +16.33%
^TXPR -19.50% -20.71
Total Return Indices
^SPTSX -8.28 +34.4%
^TXPR -15.44% +1.88%

The IMF brings happy news and analysis:

Global growth in the first half of 2015 was lower than in the second half of 2014, reflecting a further slowdown in emerging economies and a weaker recovery in advanced economies … Financial conditions for emerging economies have tightened … Risks are tilted to the downside, and a simultaneous realization of some of these risks would imply a much weaker outlook.

So what should we do?

Advanced economies should maintain supportive policies. In most advanced economies substantial output gaps and below-target inflation suggest that the monetary stance must stay accommodative. Fiscal policy should remain growth friendly and be anchored in credible medium-term plans. Managing high public debt in a low-growth and low-inflation environment remains a key challenge.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 47bp, FixedResets up 33bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 7bp. Floaters did really well! The Performance Highlights table is its usual extremely lengthy self. Volume was on the low side of average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.49%, equivalent to 7.14% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.15%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 300bp, a sharp narrowing from the 325bp reported August 26.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150902
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.75 to be $1.12 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $1.02 cheap at its bid price of 12.85.

impVol_MFC_150902
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility dropping a bit again today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.F, resetting at +141bp on 2016-6-19, bid at 16.00 to be 0.30 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 19.61 to be 0.37 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150902
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.89 to be $1.42 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.60 and appears to be $1.03 rich.

impVol_FTS_150902
Click for Big

Implied Volatility eased a little today, but there are perils in relying too heavily on a four-point curve.

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 18.91, looks $0.46 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.39 and is $0.52 cheap.

pairs_FR_150902
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.91%, with no outliers although I had to change the scale of the graph. Note that the distribution is bimodal, with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.30% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.37%. There are two junk outliers below -1.80% and one above +0.20%.

pairs_FF_150902
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 2.7502 % 1,663.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 2.7502 % 2,907.8
Floater 4.41 % 4.49 % 56,917 16.36 3 2.7502 % 1,767.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2311 % 2,770.8
SplitShare 4.64 % 4.95 % 65,834 3.10 3 0.2311 % 3,247.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2311 % 2,533.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.73 % 3.09 % 58,849 0.08 8 0.1240 % 2,488.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.47 % 5.49 % 76,420 14.65 30 0.4722 % 2,585.8
FixedReset 4.75 % 4.21 % 178,396 16.07 74 0.3278 % 2,140.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.16 % 5.08 % 100,744 5.54 33 0.0658 % 2,572.4
FloatingReset 2.43 % 3.83 % 46,075 5.95 9 -0.3451 % 2,174.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.43
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 21.85
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 14.74
Evaluated at bid price : 14.74
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
BNS.PR.C FloatingReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.36
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
BNS.PR.B FloatingReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.84
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 20.95
Evaluated at bid price : 20.95
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 22.57
Evaluated at bid price : 23.54
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 22.07
Evaluated at bid price : 22.38
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 22.07
Evaluated at bid price : 22.38
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 21.78
Evaluated at bid price : 22.12
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 24.16
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 18.39
Evaluated at bid price : 18.39
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 10.57
Evaluated at bid price : 10.57
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 18.97
Evaluated at bid price : 18.97
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.72
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 21.17
Evaluated at bid price : 21.17
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset 2.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 22.18
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 2.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 16.89
Evaluated at bid price : 16.89
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 2.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 18.91
Evaluated at bid price : 18.91
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 2.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 10.67
Evaluated at bid price : 10.67
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 3.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 3.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 10.89
Evaluated at bid price : 10.89
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 4.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 14.57
Evaluated at bid price : 14.57
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 4.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.45
Bid-YTW : 7.93 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 5.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 22.08
Evaluated at bid price : 22.65
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 85,388 Desjardins crossed 80,000 at 22.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 21.63
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 75,700 Nesbitt crossed 75,000 at 19.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.47
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 66,200 Nesbitt crossed 60,000 at 20.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 61,200 Desjardins crossed 60,000 at 25.65.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.59
Bid-YTW : 3.50 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset 58,200 TD crossed 45,400 at 25.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 3.34 %
NA.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 57,404 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-10-02
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.79
Bid-YTW : -4.34 %
There were 29 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Quote: 19.47 – 21.30
Spot Rate : 1.8300
Average : 1.1618

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.47
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %

MFC.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 21.70 – 22.67
Spot Rate : 0.9700
Average : 0.5706

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 22.85 – 24.00
Spot Rate : 1.1500
Average : 0.8801

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 22.18
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %

BMO.PR.W FixedReset Quote: 20.50 – 21.04
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3800

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-02
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.43 – 21.89
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.3156

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.43
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %

PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.43 – 25.84
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2765

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.43
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %

Market Action

September 1, 2015

It was kind of an interesting day, with US equities getting smacked:

U.S. stocks joined a worldwide selloff, after equities’ worst month in more than three years, amid continuing concerns that China’s slowdown will weigh on the global economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 3 percent to 1,913.85 at 4 p.m. in New York, the third-worst drop this year. … The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 469.68 points, or 2.8 percent, to 16,058.35. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 2.9 percent.

Equities dropped in Asia, with the Shanghai Composite Index slumping as much as 4.8 percent, after manufacturing reports pointed to a deepening Chinese economic slowdown.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Tuesday the global expansion outlook is worse than the lender anticipated less than two months ago. “This reflects two forces: a weaker than expected recovery in advanced economies, and a further slowdown in emerging economies, especially in Latin America,” Lagarde said in a speech in Jakarta.

A report today showed U.S. factories expanded in August at the slowest pace since May 2013 as anemic demand from emerging markets such as China translated into leaner factory order books. A measure of exports matched the weakest reading since April 2009. The weak manufacturing data surface ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting in which they will debate whether the economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in interest rates in the face of fragile overseas economies.

In somewhat related news, it looks like the deal with Iran will survive not just US Congress, but a very noticeable surge in sponsored content for pro-Israeli groups in my Facebook feed:

President Barack Obama all but wrapped up enough U.S. Senate votes to protect the Iran nuclear deal in Congress as two more Democratic senators said Tuesday they will support the agreement.

The backing from Senators Chris Coons of Delaware and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania brings the president within one vote of the 34 he needs. Eleven Democrats haven’t declared a position, including West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, who said in July he was leaning toward supporting the agreement. An aide has said Manchin remains undecided.

Which is somewhat related because of the effects on the oil market:

The Americas will take the brunt of any cuts in oil production as Iran increases output once international sanctions are lifted, according to a report by A.T. Kearney Inc.’s oil and gas consulting practice in Dubai.

North, South and Central American oil production could fall 1.1 million barrels a day by 2020 because of higher costs as Iran’s output climbs, starting with an increase of 800,000 barrels a day next year, Chicago-based A.T. Kearney said in a report to be issued this week. Brent crude prices are seen trading at $45 to $65 a barrel next year, according to the report. The international benchmark was about $47 a barrel on Tuesday.

So slow economic growth and subdued pricing for oil add up to one thing:

Treasury market analysts are scaling back their forecasts for a selloff as yields show traders expect almost no inflation for the next two years.

Benchmark 10-year yields will hold below 3 percent through September 2016, based on Bloomberg surveys of economists, with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings. In June, the projection was for 3.15 percent.

A bond-market gauge called the break-even rate shows traders expect the average annual rate of inflation to be 0.3 percent over the coming 24 months. The figure has tumbled from more than 1 percent as recently as July. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said uncertainty over inflation and global growth justifies a modest pace of interest-rate increases, regardless of when the central bank begins.

‘What’s in it for me’, you ask? How about more vacations in Canada?

Canada’s economy shrank again in the second quarter as plunging oil prices triggered a drop in investment, with fresh debate about a recession dealing a blow to Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s bid for re-election.

Gross domestic product declined at a 0.5 percent annualized pace from April to June, Statistics Canada said Tuesday in Ottawa. The agency revised the first-quarter contraction to 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent.

The Group of Seven’s biggest crude oil exporter is struggling as a global commodity slump guts business spending.

Canada’s dollar depreciated 0.3 percent to C$1.3173 per U.S. dollar at 11:55 a.m. Toronto time. The currency is down about 12 percent this year. Swaps trading showed the odds of a rate cut next week fell to about 21 percent after Tuesday’s report, down from 24 percent Monday and 36 percent a week ago.

The consecutive GDP declines are milder than any back-to-back contractions since at least 1981, including the last recession in 2009 which saw drops of 3.6 percent and 8.7 percent. The job market also suggests there’s no broad-based slump in the world’s 11th largest economy. The jobless rate of 6.8 percent for July is down from 7 percent a year ago. August labor data is due Sept. 4.

Fortunately, all this gloom is alleviated by more news from the highly entertaining battle between Sprott and the bullion trusts. Sprott recently announced:

the filing of notices of change (the “Notices of Change”) in connection with the offers (together, the “Sprott offers”) by Sprott Asset Management Gold Bid LP and Sprott Asset Management Silver Bid LP to acquire all of the outstanding units of Central GoldTrust (“GTU”) and Silver Bullion Trust (“SBT”), respectively, for units of Sprott Physical Gold Trust and units of Sprott Physical Silver Trust, in each case on a Net Asset Value (“NAV”) to NAV exchange basis.

We can find, after a bit of difficulty, the document on SEDAR, filed under “Silver Bullion Trust Aug 28 2015 17:49:05 ET Notice of change or variation – English PDF 73 K”, a public document that the regulators consider so critical to the efficient and fair functioning of the public markets that they prohibit investor scum and other interested parties from linking to it directly. After accepting the regulators’ terms of use and offering a little prayer of thanksgiving for our transparent capital markets, we find:

The Offeror has (subject to the next two sentences) agreed to pay to each Soliciting Dealer a fee of U.S.$0.0448 for each SBT Unit deposited through such Soliciting Dealer and either: (i) taken-up and paid for by the Offeror under the Offer; or (ii) provided the Merger Transaction is completed, deemed to be withdrawn from the Offer under the Merger Election, based on, among other things, the claims submitted, CDS and DTC participant deposits and the CDS and DTC participant list as at the Expiry Time. The aggregate amount payable with respect to any single beneficial holder of SBT Units will not be less than U.S.$50.00 and not be more than U.S.$1,500.00, provided that no fee will be payable in respect of deposits of less than 1,000 SBT Units per beneficial holder. When SBT Units deposited are beneficially owned by more than one person, only one minimum and maximum amount will be applied. The Offeror may require the Soliciting Dealers to furnish evidence of beneficial ownership satisfactory to the Offeror before payment of such solicitation fees.

Silver Bullion Trust has a NAVPU of USD 8.38 as of September 1, so this payment comes to a little over 50bp on unit value, which is nice work if you can get it. The target has this to say:

The Trustees note the recent announcement by Sprott that they intend to pay financial advisors and brokers to secure tenders to their Offer, a clear indication that the Sprott Offer has thus far been unable to attract sufficient Unitholder support. The Trustees caution Unitholders regarding any advice or recommendations they may receive from their financial advisors or brokers, which may be biased and based on their desire to collect solicitation fees from Sprott. Sprott is paying your broker to convince you to tender. Don’t be talked into tendering!

I continue to scan the news for mention of solicitation fees and new issue commissions being discussed in connection with potential bans on mutual fund trailer commissions, but there’s nothing. The regulators are too busy coming up with new ways to restrict public access to public documents, while self-proclaimed investor advocates concentrate on trying to get their heads out of their asses.

You know what’s good about the internet? This is what’s good about the internet:


Click for Big

In other other news (about chess), Lev Aronian won the 2015 Sinquefield Cup (a ridiculously strong tournament), but the highlights reel has to include So – Nakamura in round 6 and Nakamura – Grischuk in round 9. Fighting chess! Those with a taste for it may wish to watch the Thoresen Chess Engine Competition Season 8, which brings the world’s strongest chess programmes together on some rather high-end hardware.

The Canadian preferred share market commenced the new month on a mixed note, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 12bp, FixedResets down 6bp and DeemedRetractibles off 2bp. Reported yields for the FixedReset subindex dropped significantly from yesterday due to the mass migration of ENB issues from FixedResets into Scraps due to credit concerns. The Performance Highlights table continues to show a lot of churn amongst the FixedResets. Volume was extremely low.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150901
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.40 to be $0.88 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +164, is $1.00 cheap at its bid price of 12.75.

impVol_MFC_150901
Click for Big

Another good fit today for MFC, with Implied Volatility dropping a bit again today.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.M, resetting at +236bp on 2019-12-19, bid at 20.85 to be 0.39 rich, while MFC.PR.J, resetting at +261bp on 2018-3-19, is bid at 21.00 to be 0.44 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150901
Click for Big

The fit on the BAM issues continues to be horrible.

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.51 to be $1.68 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.60 and appears to be $1.15 rich.

impVol_FTS_150901
Click for Big

Implied Volatility reversed yesterday’s precipitous decline, illustrating the perils of relying too heavily on a four-point curve.

FTS.PR.M, with a spread of +248bp, and bid at 20.65, looks $0.26 expensive and resets 2019-12-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.12 and is $0.60 cheap.

pairs_FR_150901
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.94%, with no outliers. Note that the distribution is bimodal (although less than recently), with NVCC non-compliant bank issues averaging -1.05% and the unregulated issues averaging -0.78%. There are four junk outliers below -1.60% and two above +0.40%.

pairs_FF_150901
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.6976 % 1,618.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.6976 % 2,829.9
Floater 4.53 % 4.60 % 57,627 16.15 3 -1.6976 % 1,720.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3791 % 2,764.4
SplitShare 4.66 % 5.11 % 60,978 3.11 3 -0.3791 % 3,239.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3791 % 2,527.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.73 % 5.53 % 61,765 0.08 8 -0.0397 % 2,485.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.49 % 5.55 % 76,999 14.56 30 0.1164 % 2,573.6
FixedReset 4.76 % 4.21 % 180,656 16.09 74 -0.0607 % 2,133.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.29 % 98,575 5.52 33 -0.0152 % 2,570.7
FloatingReset 2.42 % 3.58 % 44,365 5.96 9 -0.4563 % 2,181.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.E FixedReset -3.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset -2.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 20.65
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -2.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 10.50
Evaluated at bid price : 10.50
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -2.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 20.45
Evaluated at bid price : 20.45
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 13.98
Evaluated at bid price : 13.98
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset -2.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 22.10
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 15.47
Evaluated at bid price : 15.47
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.01
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 14.76
Evaluated at bid price : 14.76
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 10.41
Evaluated at bid price : 10.41
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.31
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 23.75
Evaluated at bid price : 24.06
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
PVS.PR.D SplitShare -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.09
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.71
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 24.27
Evaluated at bid price : 24.64
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.58
Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 16.51
Evaluated at bid price : 16.51
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.63
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 2.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.62
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset 2.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 2.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 23.30
Evaluated at bid price : 23.56
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 90,200 Nesbitt crossed 70,000 at 22.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.62
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Premium 30,100 TD crossed two blocks of 15,000 each, both at 25.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-10-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 0.22 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 21,299 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 20.71
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
PVS.PR.D SplitShare 18,810 Scotia crossed 10,000 at 24.33.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.09
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 18,175 TD crossed 11,500 at 21.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 17,120 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
There were 11 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 21.50 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 3.5000
Average : 1.8989

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset Quote: 13.98 – 15.00
Spot Rate : 1.0200
Average : 0.7095

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 13.98
Evaluated at bid price : 13.98
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %

HSE.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 21.55 – 22.50
Spot Rate : 0.9500
Average : 0.6500

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %

IFC.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 16.83 – 17.55
Spot Rate : 0.7200
Average : 0.4259

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.83
Bid-YTW : 8.22 %

PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.61 – 23.48
Spot Rate : 0.8700
Average : 0.6252

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %

FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.82 – 22.90
Spot Rate : 1.0800
Average : 0.8775

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-01
Maturity Price : 21.48
Evaluated at bid price : 21.82
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %