Category: Market Action

Market Action

November 17, 2015

Just the bare bones again today, I’m afraid!

It was a fine day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 48bp, FixedResets up 44bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 42bp. The Performance Highlights table is dominated by winners, topped by low-spread insurance issues. Volume was slightly above average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.22 % 5.06 % 33,535 17.75 1 1.0625 % 1,838.5
FixedFloater 6.18 % 5.43 % 28,737 17.00 1 -0.6468 % 3,155.3
Floater 3.94 % 3.97 % 69,577 17.43 3 -1.3151 % 2,006.6
OpRet 4.87 % 3.89 % 33,956 0.77 1 0.0000 % 2,733.2
SplitShare 4.74 % 5.85 % 138,843 4.36 5 0.1988 % 3,204.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1988 % 2,500.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.76 % -5.56 % 73,938 0.08 6 0.5538 % 2,522.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.51 % 5.55 % 87,389 14.53 33 0.4781 % 2,600.3
FixedReset 4.80 % 4.41 % 222,953 15.54 76 0.4364 % 2,132.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.13 % 4.75 % 115,536 5.40 33 0.4163 % 2,592.7
FloatingReset 2.57 % 3.67 % 54,986 5.77 10 0.4687 % 2,199.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset -2.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 20.12
Evaluated at bid price : 20.12
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.67
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 11.95
Evaluated at bid price : 11.95
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 12.06
Evaluated at bid price : 12.06
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.72
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 21.05
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 21.12
Evaluated at bid price : 21.12
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.64
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.17
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.69
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 15.63
Evaluated at bid price : 15.63
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
BNS.PR.B FloatingReset 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.78
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 19.78
Evaluated at bid price : 19.78
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 23.61
Evaluated at bid price : 23.88
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 16.72
Evaluated at bid price : 16.72
Bid-YTW : 5.03 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 3.52 %
PVS.PR.B SplitShare 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 24.48
Evaluated at bid price : 24.94
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 14.81
Evaluated at bid price : 14.81
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 22.10
Evaluated at bid price : 22.32
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 22.61
Evaluated at bid price : 22.86
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 19.08
Evaluated at bid price : 19.08
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 14.72
Evaluated at bid price : 14.72
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 14.15
Evaluated at bid price : 14.15
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.63
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.03
Bid-YTW : 8.79 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 14.23
Evaluated at bid price : 14.23
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 20.87
Evaluated at bid price : 20.87
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 22.26
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.48
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 2.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.90
Bid-YTW : 9.09 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 2.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 18.29
Evaluated at bid price : 18.29
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 3.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 8.01 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 3.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.10
Bid-YTW : 9.63 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 3.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 9.11 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 3.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 15.16
Evaluated at bid price : 15.16
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 199,850 Scotia crossed blocks of 155,000 and 22,400, both at 16.55.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 16.72
Evaluated at bid price : 16.72
Bid-YTW : 5.03 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 79,701 RBC crossed blocks of 45,500 and 25,000, both at 24.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 76,306 Nesbitt crossed 15,000 at 20.06 and 50,000 at 19.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 19.93
Evaluated at bid price : 19.93
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 70,380 Desjardins crossed 60,000 at 17.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 8.01 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 60,325 RBC crossed 50,000 at 20.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 20.09
Evaluated at bid price : 20.09
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 37,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 15.16
Evaluated at bid price : 15.16
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
There were 37 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 14.72 – 15.29
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.3310

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 14.72
Evaluated at bid price : 14.72
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %

TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 13.22 – 13.69
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3168

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 13.22
Evaluated at bid price : 13.22
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %

BNS.PR.A FloatingReset Quote: 23.42 – 23.85
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2911

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.42
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 21.67 – 22.30
Spot Rate : 0.6300
Average : 0.4994

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.67
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 15.36 – 15.85
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3722

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.36
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %

SLF.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 19.26 – 19.56
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1896

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.26
Bid-YTW : 6.66 %

Market Action

November 16, 2015

There’s are some interesting ventures assigning credit scores to marginal borrowers:

They have no bank account, no credit score, no financial identity. So a quarter of humanity hasn’t been able to borrow money. Until now.

Several dozen startups say they have developed ways to bring those 2 billion people into the international financial system, monitoring cell phone use and other personal habits to predict creditworthiness. For example, people who don’t let their phone batteries run low tend to do the same for their debt balance. Borrowers who get more calls than they make are better risks, and applicants who state their loan purpose in a few words are better borrowers than those who end up writing an essay.

A key to creditworthiness is personal daily routine. People who charge the same amount of airtime on the same day every week are better credit risks than those who purchase a large amount, then let their accounts sit empty, according to Van Der Tuin of First Access. When phones stay in the same place every day, that is often a sign that the owner is at work.

Moreover, in emerging market countries mobile phones are increasingly serving as ledgers of money movement. So monitoring phone records becomes a simple substitute for examining a bank account. At the same time, traditional credit risk assessments, according to the startups, have ignored the added importance of social capital. Beyond serving as de facto bank statements, mobile and online footprints indicate how well borrowers are treated by their community.

It was a positive day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 8bp, FixedResets winning 36bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 4bp. The Performance Highlights table, while still much longer than was the norm a year ago, is unusually short when judged by 2015 standards. Volume was below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151116
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.31 to be $0.87 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +154, is $0.53 cheap at its bid price of 20.47.

impVol_MFC_151116
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 21.20 to be 0.64 rich, while MFC.PR.F resetting at +141bp on 2016-6-19, is bid at 14.50 to be 0.68 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151116
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.52 to be $1.59 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.00 and appears to be $1.01 rich.

impVol_FTS_151116
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.55, looks $0.82 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp and resetting 2020-6-1, is bid at 13.96 and is $1.01 cheap.

pairs_FR_151116
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.61%, with no outliers. There are three junk outliers above 0.00% and one below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_151116
Click for Big

The light blue point is an estimate for the potential BCE.PR.R / BCE.PF.Q pair, the latter of which is not trading. Its price has been set to the average defined by the other BCE Ratchet Rate preferreds.

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.27 % 5.12 % 33,004 17.68 1 0.0000 % 1,819.2
FixedFloater 6.14 % 5.39 % 28,258 17.05 1 2.0462 % 3,175.8
Floater 3.88 % 3.92 % 69,743 17.55 3 -0.3549 % 2,033.4
OpRet 4.87 % 3.88 % 35,356 0.77 1 0.5383 % 2,733.2
SplitShare 4.75 % 5.85 % 140,232 4.36 5 -0.2533 % 3,198.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2533 % 2,495.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.79 % 0.76 % 72,285 0.08 6 0.4304 % 2,508.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.53 % 5.60 % 84,242 14.45 33 0.0783 % 2,588.0
FixedReset 4.82 % 4.32 % 221,875 15.44 76 0.3610 % 2,122.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.15 % 5.15 % 112,263 5.40 33 0.0395 % 2,582.0
FloatingReset 2.58 % 3.79 % 54,565 5.77 10 0.3836 % 2,189.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.75
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.62
Evaluated at bid price : 20.62
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
PVS.PR.D SplitShare -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.55
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.22
Evaluated at bid price : 20.22
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.84
Evaluated at bid price : 20.84
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.65
Bid-YTW : 10.06 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 24.02
Evaluated at bid price : 24.52
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.68
Evaluated at bid price : 22.12
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.60
Bid-YTW : 9.37 %
PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Discount 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 24.19
Evaluated at bid price : 24.69
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.87
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.27
Bid-YTW : 6.65 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.19
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.93
Evaluated at bid price : 22.39
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 19.31
Evaluated at bid price : 19.31
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.46
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.73
Evaluated at bid price : 18.73
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 2.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 19.92
Evaluated at bid price : 19.92
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 2.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 13.10
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 2.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 14.46
Evaluated at bid price : 14.46
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 3.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.33
Evaluated at bid price : 21.33
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 107,990 Nesbitt crossed 95,000 at 13.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.60
Bid-YTW : 9.37 %
RY.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 86,500 Haywood bought 65,000 from RBC at 24.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 24.34
Evaluated at bid price : 24.72
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 50,500 RBC crossed 49,200 at 24.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.57
Bid-YTW : 3.49 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 30,394 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.73
Evaluated at bid price : 18.73
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
TD.PF.F Perpetual-Discount 29,600 RBC crossed 25,000 at 23.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 23.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.67
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 25,045 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.54
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 20.22 – 21.00
Spot Rate : 0.7800
Average : 0.4902

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.22
Evaluated at bid price : 20.22
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %

BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 20.85 – 21.58
Spot Rate : 0.7300
Average : 0.5360

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.85
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %

HSE.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 22.45 – 22.80
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2401

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %

FTS.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 13.96 – 14.50
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.4328

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 13.96
Evaluated at bid price : 13.96
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 23.20 – 23.60
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2976

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 22.39
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %

BAM.PR.E Ratchet Quote: 16.00 – 16.50
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.4044

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-16
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %

Market Action

November 13, 2015

Assiduous Reader IR brought to my attention recently a fascinating article titled Six Strange Things That Have Been Happening in Financial Markets:

Interesting things have certainly been happening in the underpinnings of global markets—things that either run counter to long-standing financial logic, or represent an unusual dislocation in the “normal” state of market affairs, or were once rare occurrences but have been happening with increasing frequency.

1. Negative swap spreads

2. Fractured repo rates

3. Corporate bond inventories below zero

corporateBondInventory
Click for Big

Analysts at Goldman Sachs made waves this week when they highlighted the fact that inventories of some corporate bonds held by big dealer-banks had gone negative for the first time since the Federal Reserve began collecting such data. That means big banks are now net short corporate bonds with a maturity greater than 12 months equivalent to $1.4 billion, bucking the longer-term trend of net positive positions.

The record-breaking event revived a flurry of concerns about so-called liquidity, or ease of trading, in the $8.1 trillion corporate bond market. Similar to the repo market, a confluence of new rules is said to have made it more difficult for banks to hold corporate bonds on their balance sheets. At the same time, years of low interest rates have encouraged investors to herd into corporate bonds and hold onto them tightly.

Synthetic credit is trading tighter than cash credit

CDSBasis
Click for Big


Above is the so-called basis between the CDX IG, an index that includes CDS tied to U.S. investment-grade companies, and the underlying cash bonds. The basis has been persistently wide and negative in recent years, as spreads on the CDX index trade at tighter levels than cash.

“In exchange for the substantial liquidity of derivative indices, investors are often giving up spread right now, as most indices trade at a negative basis versus the comparable cash market,” Barclays’ Bradley Rogoff wrote in research published today. “The negative basis right now is near the largest we have witnessed at a time when there was not a funding crisis.”

Investors may be ogling such synthetic tools not just because of their purported liquidity benefits but also because of funding benefits, a similar dynamic to the one currently pushing swap spreads into negative territory.

Market moves that aren’t supposed to happen keep happening

The number of assets registering large moves—four or more standard deviations away from their normal trading range—has been increasing. Such moves would normally be expected to happen once every 62 years.

While Martin blamed much of the confusion on unexpected decisions by central banks—such as the Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision to scrap its long-standing currency cap—there have been sharp market moves with seemingly little reasons behind them. Perhaps the best-known example is Oct. 15, 2014, when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly plunged 33 basis points—a seven standard-deviation move that should happen once every 1.6 billion years, based on a normal distribution of probabilities.

Volatility is itself more volatile

Negative swap spreads were discussed on November 5.

The CDS Basis was discussed in the post BIS Releases March 2009 Quarterly Review, where the wide spread was considered to suggest “that arbitrage activities that would usually tend to compress the price differential continued to be constrained by elevated capital and financing costs for leveraged investors.” I consider this to have the potential for severely adverse effects on the economy due to “debt decoupling”, discussed in the post Credit Default Swaps: Links to Primers, notably a paper by Hu and Black titled Debt, Equity, and Hybrid Decoupling: Governance and Systemic Risk Implications:

There are also several sources of qualitative evidence. One is the recent tendency for credit default swap contracts to require the protection buyer, if it is also a creditor, to act in the interests of other creditors. This suggests concern that the protection buyer might not otherwise do so. How this obligation can be enforced, however, without disclosure of either votes or hedges, is anyone’s guess. We have also heard from bankruptcy judges that they sometimes see odd behavior in their courtrooms, which empty crediting might explain. For example, one judge described a case in which a junior creditor complained that the firm’s value was too high, even though a lower value would hurt the class of debt the creditor ostensibly held.

Also hinted at yesterday was the latest twist in the Silver Bullion Trust / Sprott battle:

Sprott has amended the Offer by attempting to unilaterally expand the scope of the powers of attorney granted to it by those Unitholders that tender to the Offer. The amendments purport to give Sprott the authority to replace the independent Trustees of SBT, insert their own conflicted Trustees and force completion of their inadequate Offer, despite their continued failure to attract sufficient Unitholder support for doing so by legitimate means.

SBT believes that Sprott’s attempt to unilaterally amend the powers of attorney is invalid and that any actions that Sprott would purport to take pursuant to them would be invalid. SBT also believes that Sprott’s actions are contrary to the take-over bid and proxy solicitation rules and the public interest. SBT has commenced an application before the Ontario Securities Commission to contest the amendments and other aspects of the Offer and has sought an order from the Ontario Securities Commission cease trading the Offer.

SBT is of the view that the use of the powers of attorney by Sprott to replace its independent Trustees when the conditions to the Offer have not been met is not a purpose for which the powers of attorney were solicited, and a clear violation of law. Sprott’s plan to change the terms of the powers of attorney granted by certain SBT Unitholders – without consulting Unitholders or complying with securities laws – is nothing more than an illegitimate tactic to ignore the will of Unitholders and replace SBT’s independent Trustees with insiders of Sprott, all of whom are clearly and obviously conflicted. Further, Sprott had previously represented to Unitholders and the Ontario Superior Court of Justice that it would use the powers of attorney granted in connection with the Offer for the purpose of carrying out the mechanics required to complete the Offer, only if they achieved the minimum acceptance of 66⅔% of SBT Units.

This is great entertainment – but I’m glad I’m not the one paying the lawyers!

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 2bp, FixedResets losing 56bp and DeemedRetractibles down 5bp. BAM issues were notable in the bad part of the Performance Highlights table. Volume was average. What a week it has been – but at least we’re not alone.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151113
Click for Big

There is a major increase in implied volatility today. It’s almost as if the issues with the lowest spreads have a ‘floor price’ – which is not to say that they don’t go down, but they seem to outperform on lousy days.

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 18.94 to be $0.68 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.24 cheap at its bid price of 13.90.

impVol_MFC_151113
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 20.98 to be 0.55 rich, while MFC.PR.F resetting at +141bp on 2016-6-19, is bid at 14.45 to be 0.69 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151113
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.41 to be $1.70 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.11 and appears to be $1.12 rich.

impVol_FTS_151113
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.70, looks $0.78 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp and resetting 2020-6-1, is bid at 14.20 and is $0.93 cheap.

pairs_FR_151113
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.57%, with one outlier above 0.00%. There are two junk outliers above 0.00% and one below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_151113
Click for Big

The light blue point is an estimate for the potential BCE.PR.R / BCE.PF.Q pair, the latter of which is not trading. Its price has been set to the average defined by the other BCE Ratchet Rate preferreds.

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.27 % 5.12 % 31,167 17.69 1 0.0000 % 1,819.2
FixedFloater 6.27 % 5.51 % 28,644 16.91 1 -3.5646 % 3,112.2
Floater 3.87 % 3.89 % 69,597 17.62 3 0.1915 % 2,040.6
OpRet 4.84 % 4.54 % 33,557 0.77 1 0.0000 % 2,718.6
SplitShare 4.74 % 5.71 % 140,624 4.37 5 -0.2039 % 3,206.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2039 % 2,501.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.82 % 4.37 % 72,269 0.08 6 -0.0199 % 2,497.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.53 % 5.61 % 84,446 14.46 33 -0.0158 % 2,585.9
FixedReset 4.83 % 4.40 % 223,365 15.46 76 -0.5566 % 2,115.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.18 % 5.19 % 110,584 5.41 34 -0.0530 % 2,581.0
FloatingReset 2.59 % 3.86 % 53,963 5.78 10 -0.3009 % 2,181.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -4.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 17.74
Evaluated at bid price : 17.74
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -3.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 15.54
Evaluated at bid price : 15.54
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -3.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.15
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -3.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 20.57
Evaluated at bid price : 20.57
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 20.76
Evaluated at bid price : 20.76
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -2.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 18.94
Evaluated at bid price : 18.94
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -2.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.59
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.45
Bid-YTW : 9.50 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset -2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 19.85
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.45
Bid-YTW : 9.60 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 20.91
Evaluated at bid price : 20.91
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 19.87
Evaluated at bid price : 19.87
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.89
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.12
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 22.18
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.82
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 20.32
Evaluated at bid price : 20.32
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 19.45
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 14.20
Evaluated at bid price : 14.20
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 21.32
Evaluated at bid price : 21.61
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 21.52
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 23.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 19.87
Evaluated at bid price : 19.87
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.99
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 4.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 21.75
Evaluated at bid price : 22.08
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 127,633 Nesbitt crossed 64,800 at 24.95. Desjardins crossed 50,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.92
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 104,994 Desjardins crossed blocks of 43,300 and 25,000, both at 23.47.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.12
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 55,987 TD crossed 25,000 at 20.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 48,972 Scotia crossed 30,000 at 20.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 47,041 Scotia crossed 28,600 at 20.23.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 19.85
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 30,706 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
There were 34 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.57 – 21.47
Spot Rate : 0.9000
Average : 0.5444

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 20.57
Evaluated at bid price : 20.57
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 19.59 – 20.13
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3679

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.59
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 17.74 – 18.30
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.3910

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 17.74
Evaluated at bid price : 17.74
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %

GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.21 – 24.75
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3960

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset Quote: 14.52 – 15.00
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3492

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 14.52
Evaluated at bid price : 14.52
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 21.52 – 21.90
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2650

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-13
Maturity Price : 21.52
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %

Market Action

November 12, 2015

There were a few things I wanted to discuss in today’s post, notably Six Strange Things That Have Been Happening in Financial Markets and a new twist in the Sprott Silver Battle, but frankly – it’s late and I’m tired. So today, folks, all you’re getting is the barest of bare bones.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.27 % 5.12 % 31,504 17.68 1 0.0000 % 1,819.2
FixedFloater 6.05 % 5.29 % 28,536 17.17 1 0.1913 % 3,227.2
Floater 3.88 % 3.92 % 68,686 17.55 3 2.1229 % 2,036.7
OpRet 4.84 % 4.52 % 32,765 0.78 1 0.0395 % 2,718.6
SplitShare 4.73 % 5.60 % 145,738 4.37 5 0.1121 % 3,212.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1121 % 2,506.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.82 % 3.40 % 88,415 0.08 6 -0.0728 % 2,498.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.53 % 5.64 % 83,047 14.45 33 -0.2943 % 2,586.3
FixedReset 4.81 % 4.51 % 225,507 15.51 76 -1.0322 % 2,127.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.18 % 5.20 % 108,826 5.41 34 -0.1084 % 2,582.3
FloatingReset 2.57 % 3.89 % 54,555 5.78 10 -0.1782 % 2,187.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -5.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 20.41
Evaluated at bid price : 20.41
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -4.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 21.03
Evaluated at bid price : 21.03
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -3.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 14.15
Evaluated at bid price : 14.15
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -3.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 18.69
Evaluated at bid price : 18.69
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -3.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.38
Evaluated at bid price : 19.38
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -3.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.90
Evaluated at bid price : 19.90
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -3.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -2.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.70
Bid-YTW : 9.50 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -2.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 16.01
Evaluated at bid price : 16.01
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset -2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.07
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -2.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.03
Bid-YTW : 6.45 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -2.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.55
Bid-YTW : 8.74 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset -2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 11.53
Evaluated at bid price : 11.53
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -2.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.65
Bid-YTW : 7.19 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -2.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 14.36
Evaluated at bid price : 14.36
Bid-YTW : 4.41 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.67
Evaluated at bid price : 19.67
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset -2.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 20.56
Evaluated at bid price : 20.56
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.95
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.36
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 8.85 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 14.65
Evaluated at bid price : 14.65
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.59
Evaluated at bid price : 19.59
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 21.73
Evaluated at bid price : 22.11
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset -1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.21
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset -1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.64
Evaluated at bid price : 19.64
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 6.85 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 20.07
Evaluated at bid price : 20.07
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.81
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.84
Evaluated at bid price : 19.84
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.86
Evaluated at bid price : 19.86
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.09
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 22.02
Evaluated at bid price : 22.39
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 20.24
Evaluated at bid price : 20.24
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 13.85
Evaluated at bid price : 13.85
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.12
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 20.13
Evaluated at bid price : 20.13
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 23.48
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.27
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 24.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.33
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 20.08
Evaluated at bid price : 20.08
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.07
Bid-YTW : 6.64 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 21.76
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 12.05
Evaluated at bid price : 12.05
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 16.18
Evaluated at bid price : 16.18
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 12.16
Evaluated at bid price : 12.16
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 12.35
Evaluated at bid price : 12.35
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 82,443 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset 70,396 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 65,246 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 20.13
Evaluated at bid price : 20.13
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 52,666 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 20.07
Evaluated at bid price : 20.07
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 33,606 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.86
Evaluated at bid price : 19.86
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 33,404 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 19.64
Evaluated at bid price : 19.64
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
There were 45 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.03 – 22.23
Spot Rate : 1.2000
Average : 0.7292

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 21.03
Evaluated at bid price : 21.03
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %

ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.25 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.7500
Average : 0.5031

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 23.77
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %

TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 16.01 – 16.70
Spot Rate : 0.6900
Average : 0.5199

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 16.01
Evaluated at bid price : 16.01
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.52 – 21.99
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3328

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 6.85 %

RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.65 – 24.00
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2182

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 23.35
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %

BAM.PR.R FixedReset Quote: 16.44 – 16.92
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3534

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-12
Maturity Price : 16.44
Evaluated at bid price : 16.44
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %

Market Action

November 11, 2015

There is speculation that negative interest rates are nothing special:

Now that Sweden and Switzerland have shown that negative benchmark interest rates don’t necessarily result in flights to cash, asset bubbles or banking strains, the global giants of central banking may be more willing to embrace sub-zero borrowing costs the next time their economies slide.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is open to reducing the rate he charges banks to leave money in his coffers overnight further into negative territory. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has also revised his thinking to say the U.K. benchmark could fall below 0.5 percent if needed having previously worried deeper cuts would roil money markets.

Meantime, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week that “if circumstances were to change” then “potentially anything, including negative interest rates, would be on the table.” One of her policy-setting colleagues has already advocated them for next year.

Plumbing new depths the next time economies stumble would continue the pattern of the past few decades in which each of the peaks and troughs in rates were more often than not lower than in the previous business cycle.

It appears that I am no longer the only person in Canada who understands that trailer fees are only one of many broker incentives:

Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. is accusing Suncor Energy Inc. of buying support for its $4.3-billion hostile takeover bid, as the largest Syncrude owner seeks more time to drum up a richer offer.

In a red, bold-lettered “warning” sign posted on its website, Canadian Oil Sands says Suncor is paying brokers to get Canadian Oil Sands’ investors to tender their shares – a strategy it says shows Suncor’s bid is “exploitive” and “opportunistic.”

“Knowing the weakness of their bid, they feel it is necessary to pay brokers and incentivize them to encourage clients to tender their shares,” the notice reads.

“We don’t think that’s right. We think our shareholders should decide for themselves, free from the influence of brokers being financially compensated to do Suncor’s work for them.”

I eagerly await cries of astonished horror from the regulators.

I ran across two good papers on sub-prime today; the first, by Christopher Palmer, is titled Why Did So Many Subprime Borrowers Default During the Crisis: Loose Credit or Plummeting Prices?:

The foreclosure rate of subprime mortgages increased markedly across 2003-2007 borrower cohorts — subprime mortgages originated in 2006-2007 were roughly three times more likely to default within three years of origination than mortgages originated in 2003-2004. Many have argued that this surge in subprime defaults represents a deterioration in subprime lending standards over time. I quantify the importance of an alternative hypothesis: later cohorts defaulted at higher rates in large part because house price declines left them more likely to have negative equity. Using loan-level data, I find that changing borrower and loan characteristics explain approximately 30% of the difference in cohort default rates, with almost of all of the remaining heterogeneity across cohorts attributable to the price cycle. To account for the endogeneity of prices, I employ a nonlinear instrumental-variables approach that instruments for house price changes with long-run regional variation in house-price cyclicality. Control function results confirm that the relationship between price declines and defaults is causal and explains the majority of the disparity in cohort performance. I conclude that if 2006 borrowers had faced the same prices the average 2003 borrower did, their annual default
rate would have dropped from 12% to 5.6%.

The second, by Christopher L. Foote, Kristopher S. Gerardi and Paul S. Willen, is titled Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis:

We present 12 facts about the mortgage crisis. We argue that the facts refute the popular story that the crisis resulted from finance industry insiders deceiving uninformed mortgage borrowers and investors. Instead, we argue that borrowers and investors made decisions that were rational and logical given their ex post overly optimistic beliefs about house prices. We then show that neither institutional features of the mortgage market nor financial innovations are any more likely to explain those wrong beliefs than they are to explain the Dutch tulip bubble 400 years ago. Economists should acknowledge the limits of our understanding of asset price bubbles and design policies accordingly

Fact 1: Resets of adjustable-rate mortgages did not cause the foreclosure crisis

Fact 2: No mortgage was “designed to fail”

Fact 3: There was little innovation in mortgage markets in the 2000s

Fact 4: Government policy toward the mortgage market did not change much from 1990 to 2005

Fact 5: The originate-to-distribute model was not new

Fact 6: MBSs, CDOs and other “complex financial products” had been widely used for decades

Fact 7: Mortgage investors had lots of information

Fact 8: Investors understood the risks

Fact 9: Investors were optimistic about house prices

Fact 10: Mortgage market insiders were the biggest losers

Fact 11: Mortgage market outsiders were the biggest winners

Fact 12: Top-rated bonds backed by mortgages did not turn out to be “toxic.” Top-rated bonds in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) did.

The best part of the latter paper is that for the first time I’ve found a little authoritative data on the default rate of AAA RMBS (politicians find it much more useful to talk about the downgrade rate):

To start with, the top-rated tranches of subprime securities fared better than many people realize. The top panel of Figure 9 is generated from data on AAA-rated bonds created in 2006 from private-label securitization deals.27 Specifically, the panel shows the fraction of these bonds on which investors suffered losses or, using industry jargon, the fraction that was “impaired.” In some of these deals, 70 percent of the underlying subprime loans terminated in foreclosure (Jozoff et al. 2012). Yet despite these massive losses, the figure shows that investors lost money on less than 10 percent of private-label AAA-rated securities. How is that possible? As many have explained, the AAA-rated securities were protected by a series of lower-rated securities which absorbed most of the losses. If a borrower defaulted and the lender was unable to recover the principal, the resulting loss would be deducted from the principal of the deal’s lower-rated tranches. For subprime deals, the degree of so-called AAA credit protection—the principal balance of the non-AAA securities—was often more than 20 percent. Given a 50 percent recovery rate on foreclosed loans, 20 percent credit protection meant that 40 percent of the borrowers could suffer foreclosure before the AAA rated investors suffered a single dollar of loss. For riskier deals, credit protection was higher, often substantially so. The key takeaway is that for subprime securities, credit protection largely worked, and investors in the AAA-rated securities were largely spared.

The relatively robust performance of private-label AAA-rated securities is explained clearly in the final report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (2011), among other sources. Yet it still surprises many people. If these AAA-rated securities didn’t suffer losses, where were the famous “toxic mortgage-related securities” that caused the financial crisis? The answer is that banks used lower-rated securities from private-label deals to construct other securities, such as the collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) discussed earlier. Recall that because these CDOs were backed by tranches of subprime securities, which were technically labeled asset-backed securities (ABS), the resulting CDOs were called ABS CDOs. The main difference between the original ABS and the ABS CDOs was that the CDOs were not backed by 2,000 or so subprime loans, but rather a collection of 90–100 lower-rated tranches of subprime ABS deals, with most of these tranches having BBB ratings. Yet the organizing principal of CDOs and the original ABS securities was the same: senior AAA-rated tranches were protected from losses by lower-rated tranches. For the original ABS, losses would occur if individual homeowners defaulted. For the CDOs, losses would occur if the BBB-rated securities from the original ABS deals defaulted.

2006MBS
Click for Big

 

2006CDO
Click for Big

 

2007MBS
Click for Big

 

2007CDO
Click for Big

Figure 9. Downgrades and Impairments Among Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). The two panels on the left show that among private-label MBS, lower-rated tranches suffered massive losses. However, while a large fraction of AAA-rated tranches were downgraded, the vast majority of these tranches paid off, as few of them suffered actual impairments. The two panels on the right show that the same is not true for CDOs. Because these bonds tended to be backed by the lower-rated tranches of private-lable MBS, both the AAA-rated and the lower-rated tranches of CDOs suffered significant impairments. Source: Tables 12, 13, 17 and 18 in Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (2010).

The difference between the ABS and CDO experiences has been discussed on PrefBlog previously, notably in the post Hull & White on AAA Tranches of Subprime.

I haven’t passed on any drone news lately … so here’s a fun drone story:

On a cool October night, after the stores in a shopping mall had closed, six young drone racers gathered in a subterranean parking garage to hone their aviation skills. Using remote-control joysticks, they navigated small X-shaped drones around pylons and beneath shopping carts, each vying for the lead.

The young men all work steady jobs, but racing drones, they said, has become a consuming new passion..

What the sport needs most at this stage is money, and in the last few months it has started to flow. In August, another organization, the Drone Racing League, announced a $1 million investment from the Miami Dolphins owner Stephen M. Ross through his investment arm RSE Ventures. The league’s chief executive, Nicholas Horbaczewski, would not reveal its plans, but he acknowledged reports that described races similar to video-game competitions held in large arenas. Horbaczewski said the company’s first major event would be in early 2016.

Pilots navigate the drones using a remote control with two joysticks that control altitude, speed and direction. They wear large goggles that broadcast live standard-definition video from a camera mounted on the front of the drone. It is this first-person-view technology, or F.P.V., that has given the sport a major boost, allowing pilots to feel as if they are in the drone. The experience, they said, is similar to the pod-racing scenes from “Star Wars: Episode I — The Phantom Menace.”

The drone frames are made of light but sturdy material like carbon fiber and are little more than small platforms for motors, a battery, electronic circuitry and four to six propellers. Most are of the four-motor variety and are thus better known among hobbyists as quadcopters, or quads, rather than drones.

“Three years ago, this technology was so expensive, so unattainable, that only the professional cinematographer could afford it,” [chief operating officer of the International Drone Racing Association Charles] Zablan said. Now, he said, a full racing kit with F.P.V. goggles can be bought for about $1,000.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 4bp, FixedResets up 24bp and DeemedRetractibles off 14bp. The Performance Highlights table continues to show a lot of churn. Volume was average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151111
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 20.10 to be $1.02 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.55 cheap at its bid price of 14.01.

impVol_MFC_151111
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.L, resetting at +216bp on 2019-6-19, bid at 20.65 to be 0.43 rich, while MFC.PR.F resetting at +141bp on 2016-6-19, is bid at 15.15 to be 0.50 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151111
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.51 to be $1.98 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 21.00 and appears to be $1.13 rich.

impVol_FTS_151111
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.97, looks $0.86 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp and resetting 2020-6-1, is bid at 14.70 and is $0.65 cheap.

pairs_FR_151111
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.58%, with one outlier above 0.00%. There are two junk outliers above 0.00% and two below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_151111
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.27 % 5.12 % 31,652 17.68 1 2.4984 % 1,819.2
FixedFloater 6.06 % 5.30 % 28,946 17.16 1 -4.3319 % 3,221.0
Floater 3.96 % 4.01 % 64,188 17.37 3 -2.7438 % 1,994.4
OpRet 4.84 % 4.56 % 33,233 0.78 1 0.1187 % 2,717.5
SplitShare 4.74 % 5.58 % 147,281 4.38 5 0.2806 % 3,209.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2806 % 2,504.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.81 % -1.14 % 87,406 0.08 6 -0.0859 % 2,500.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.51 % 5.63 % 83,445 14.46 33 0.0448 % 2,594.0
FixedReset 4.76 % 4.47 % 227,964 15.57 76 0.2374 % 2,149.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.21 % 108,240 5.42 34 -0.1377 % 2,585.1
FloatingReset 2.57 % 3.76 % 55,157 5.78 10 -0.4711 % 2,191.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -4.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 12.90
Evaluated at bid price : 12.90
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -4.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.68
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -3.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 12.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.00
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -3.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 11.90
Evaluated at bid price : 11.90
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -2.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 16.50
Evaluated at bid price : 16.50
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 19.16
Evaluated at bid price : 19.16
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 15.86
Evaluated at bid price : 15.86
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 11.90
Evaluated at bid price : 11.90
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.80
Bid-YTW : 9.15 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 21.71
Evaluated at bid price : 22.02
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.26
Bid-YTW : 8.63 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.76
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.66
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 14.90
Evaluated at bid price : 14.90
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.11
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.15
Bid-YTW : 9.09 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 21.92
Evaluated at bid price : 22.38
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 20.14
Evaluated at bid price : 20.14
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 21.39
Evaluated at bid price : 21.67
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 19.91
Evaluated at bid price : 19.91
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 18.25
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 22.23
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 22.29
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 2.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 6.87 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet 2.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 3.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 8.36 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 73,026 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 19.40
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 48,335 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 37,825 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 21.24
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 22,048 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 21,359 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 20.42
Evaluated at bid price : 20.42
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset 20,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.77
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
There were 35 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 12.90 – 13.70
Spot Rate : 0.8000
Average : 0.4996

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 12.90
Evaluated at bid price : 12.90
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 15.86 – 16.65
Spot Rate : 0.7900
Average : 0.5528

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 15.86
Evaluated at bid price : 15.86
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.40 – 22.92
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3677

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 22.10
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 15.68 – 16.50
Spot Rate : 0.8200
Average : 0.7006

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.68
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %

GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 13.90 – 14.34
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3301

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.90
Bid-YTW : 9.94 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 12.00 – 12.28
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1798

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-11
Maturity Price : 12.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.00
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %

Market Action

November 10, 2015

SNC-Lavalin thinks it would be helpful if we had a no-fault justice system with no judiciary:

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. is pressing Canada’s new Liberal government to adopt corporate corruption settlement deals like those in place in the United Kingdom and the United States, saying federal charges laid against the company are hurting its ability to compete against rivals in Group of 7 countries.

SNC is expending significant effort explaining its situation and Canada’s legal system to potential clients, Mr. Bruce added in an interview with The Globe and Mail. He said although those conversations are getting easier over time, ongoing reputational issues continue to affect the company’s ability to bid for work.

“Effectively, we are locked in the court system,” he said, “[It’s] by trial until you’re either found guilty or not guilty.”

Differing interests are at play. SNC wants to resolve the matter without admitting guilt, which could damage its ability to bid for contracts internationally and at home. Ottawa has been trying to get tougher on companies involved in corruption after being rebuked for years on the international stage for its perceived failure to take the matter seriously.

Prosecutors in February laid rare corruption and fraud charges against Montreal-based SNC, Canada’s largest engineering firm, related to its business in Libya.

Well, I don’t know why we’re so eager to save Libyans from corruption (Libya is still a foreign country, as far as I know), but that’s a part of law that is currently beside the point. It appears that Mr. Bruce would rather have nice quiet chats with federal bureaucrats regarding allegations of wrongdoing and pay a license fee administrative penalty in lieu of court-ordered fines. He also thinks it would be pleasant to avoid admitting wrongdoing, which will make it much harder for aggrieved third parties to go to what is quaintly known as ‘public court’ to seek redress.

I have no doubt that the law can be improved – and certainly the complete destruction of a company due to relatively limited wrongdoing by a tiny part of it seems disproportionate – but the holus-bolus replacement of the judiciary by well connected political operatives does not sound like much of an improvement to me.

Allister Heath of The Telegraph has some well expressed views on economics:

Seeking to predict the unpredictable has certainly kept a lot of people employed in the City of London, and for good reason: there is an immense and unquenchable appetite for their services. Being proved wrong time and again doesn’t really matter: what counts is the plausibility of the forecast and of the way in which it is delivered. In extremis, economics becomes a branch of showbusiness: entertainment and therapy dressed up as science.

We all want to know what exactly will happen to the economy, interest rates and inflation over the next few years; but economies are complex, non-linear systems that cannot meaningfully be predicted by inputting a few variables into a computer. They are just too random for that – and in any case, the data and statistics at our disposal are too imprecise and subject to endless, drastic revisions. We don’t really know what is happening to the economy today, so how can we possibly know with any degree of precision what will happen in three years’ time? The best we can do is what Nobel prize-winning economist F.A. Hayek called “pattern predictions” and scenario-based forecasts; attempts at spurious accuracy are scientistic rather than scientific, he argued.

It was a mixed, mostly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 22bp, FixedResets down 40bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 15bp. The Performance Highlights table is ridiculously long, as has been the case all year, with a notable preponderance of losers. Volume was slightly below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151110
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.88 to be $0.76 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.76 cheap at its bid price of 14.06.

impVol_MFC_151110
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.L, resetting at +216bp on 2019-6-19, bid at 20.70 to be 0.56 rich, while MFC.PR.F resetting at +141bp on 2016-6-19, is bid at 15.00 to be 0.64 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151110
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.54 to be $2.07 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 21.06 and appears to be $1.09 rich.

impVol_FTS_151110
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 20.13, looks $0.93 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp and resetting 2020-6-1, is bid at 14.70 and is $0.73 cheap.

pairs_FR_151110
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.58%, with no outliers. There are two junk outliers above 0.00% and two below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_151110
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.38 % 5.26 % 29,300 17.51 1 -2.4375 % 1,774.8
FixedFloater 5.80 % 5.04 % 30,124 17.48 1 2.4375 % 3,366.9
Floater 3.85 % 3.87 % 62,651 17.66 3 3.2828 % 2,050.6
OpRet 4.85 % 4.70 % 34,609 0.78 1 0.0792 % 2,714.3
SplitShare 4.75 % 5.61 % 152,298 4.38 5 0.0901 % 3,200.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0901 % 2,497.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.81 % -1.33 % 90,302 0.08 6 0.2584 % 2,502.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.52 % 5.61 % 82,634 14.47 33 -0.2220 % 2,592.8
FixedReset 4.77 % 4.51 % 220,525 15.59 76 -0.4037 % 2,144.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.16 % 5.20 % 108,816 5.42 34 0.1478 % 2,588.7
FloatingReset 2.55 % 3.78 % 54,678 5.79 10 -0.3886 % 2,201.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -2.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 16.54
Evaluated at bid price : 16.54
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -2.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.45
Bid-YTW : 8.46 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -2.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 9.84 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet -2.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.61
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -2.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 14.77
Evaluated at bid price : 14.77
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 14.70
Evaluated at bid price : 14.70
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 14.65
Evaluated at bid price : 14.65
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset -1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 19.92
Evaluated at bid price : 19.92
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.66
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.45
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 21.71
Evaluated at bid price : 22.08
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 20.71
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.42
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 21.61
Evaluated at bid price : 22.02
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 21.96
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.50
Bid-YTW : 8.77 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 20.18
Evaluated at bid price : 20.18
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.73
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 3.36 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.78
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 21.96
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 22.54
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 2.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.39
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 12.08
Evaluated at bid price : 12.08
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 3.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 12.42
Evaluated at bid price : 12.42
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 3.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 12.31
Evaluated at bid price : 12.31
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 59,221 RBC crossed 50,000 at 21.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.08
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 36,725 RBC crossed 20,000 at 20.72.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 20.70
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 32,392 TD crossed 25,500 at 22.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.27
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 28,927 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 20.21
Evaluated at bid price : 20.21
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 27,250 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 25,496 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.E Ratchet Quote: 15.61 – 16.75
Spot Rate : 1.1400
Average : 0.7178

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.61
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %

TRP.PR.H FloatingReset Quote: 11.90 – 13.00
Spot Rate : 1.1000
Average : 0.6943

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 11.90
Evaluated at bid price : 11.90
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 21.43 – 22.25
Spot Rate : 0.8200
Average : 0.5642

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.43
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %

FTS.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 19.50 – 20.09
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.3725

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 15.45 – 15.95
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3313

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.45
Bid-YTW : 8.46 %

RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.30 – 23.78
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3209

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-10
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %

Market Action

November 9, 2015

While the Fed moves closer to an anti-inflationary rate hike – or so it is assumed! – China continues to be worried about deflation:

China’s consumer inflation waned in October while factory-gate deflation extended a record streak of negative readings, signaling policy makers may need to hit the gas again to ease deflationary pressures.

The consumer-price index rose 1.3 percent in October from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, missing the 1.5 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and down from 1.6 percent in September. The producer-price index fell 5.9 percent, its 44th straight monthly decline.

The lingering deflation risks, along with weakening trade, open the door for additional stimulus as inflation remains about half the government’s target pace. The People’s Bank of China — which has cut interest rates six times in the past year — is seeking to stabilize the economy without fueling a renewed surge in debt.

Food prices rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier, from 2.7 percent in September. Non-food prices climbed 0.9 percent. Prices of consumer goods increased 1 percent, while services increased 1.9 percent, the data showed.

The inflation reading follows a tepid trade report that suggested the world’s second-biggest economy isn’t likely to get a near-term boost from global demand. Overseas shipments dropped 6.9 percent in October in dollar terms while weaker demand for coal, iron and other commodities from declining heavy industries helped pushimports down 18.8 percent, leaving a recordtrade surplus of $61.6 billion.

China isn’t the only major economy battling lowflation. American consumers’ expectations for inflation three years ahead fell last month to the lowest level in records going back to June 2013, according to a monthly Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday.

The Bank of Japan last month blamed the slide in oil prices for its decision to postpone its time frame for reaching a 2 percent inflation target for the second time this year, while the Bank of England last week forecast that consumer-price growth will remain below 1 percent — less than half its target — until the second half of 2016. In the euro zone, inflation has averaged 1.2 percent in the four years since Mario Draghi took the helm of the European Central Bank in November 2011, according to Bloomberg calculations.

It will be recalled that China’s devaluation was characterized as ‘exporting deflation’; I guess they’d better export more!

Meanwhile, Treasuries continued to ease:

Treasuries haven’t had such an extended losing run since June 2013, as investors step up bets that the first Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in almost a decade will come this year.

U.S. sovereign debt retreated for a sixth day Monday, after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren added his voice to the chorus of Fed officials saying liftoff could come at their Dec. 15-16 meeting. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes touched a three-month high of 2.37 percent that day. Futures put the odds for a rate rise by year-end at 68 percent, compared with a 50 percent probability at the end of last month.

Meanwhile the war on markets continues:

U.S. officials investigating the $12.8 trillion market for U.S. Treasuries are zeroing in on a practice of trading the debt before it’s issued, said a person familiar with the matter — spotlighting trades that several recent lawsuits allege are part of big banks’ efforts to rig Treasury markets.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. tipped the government’s avenue of inquiry in a recent regulatory filing. In a standard passage about areas under regulatory scrutiny, the bank’s Nov. 2 disclosure included a handful of words that hadn’t appeared the previous quarter: “offering,” “auction” and “when-issued trading.” It was a reference, the person said, to a fresh line of exploration in the government’s broader, months-old investigation into Treasuries trading.

That shows officials’ interest in one of the least transparent corners of the world’s largest debt market. When-issued securities act as placeholders for bills, notes or bonds before they’re auctioned. The instruments change hands over the counter, with lifespans of just days. There’s scant public information on trading volumes or the market’s biggest players.

When debt sells for less than when-issued prices indicate, traders say the auction “tailed.” Auctions tailed more than half the time in every type of security except for the 10-year note between 2010 and 2014, a Cleveland pension fund alleged in a lawsuit against the 22 primary dealers filed Aug. 26 in Manhattan federal court. The chances that a supposedly predictive market would be so consistently off, in a direction that favors the people selling the security, is lower than 1 percent, the fund alleged.

The banks selling when-issued securities are often the same ones that receive billions of dollars worth of client bids for those same auctions. That raises the concern — taken as a given in several of the recent suits — that information is being shared within and between banks.

It was a mixed, modestly negative, day for the Canadian preferred share market as buyers took a rest after Friday‘s exertions. PerpetualDiscounts gained 7bp, FixedResets were off 15bp and DeemedRetractibles were down 17bp. Beneath the veneer of calm, however, was a lot of churn, as illustrated by the Performance Highlights table. Volume was slightly below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151109
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.86 to be $0.66 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.75 cheap at its bid price of 14.05.

impVol_MFC_151109
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.L, resetting at +216bp on 2019-6-19, bid at 20.82 to be 0.61 rich, while MFC.PR.F resetting at +141bp on 2016-6-19, is bid at 15.12 to be 0.63 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151109
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.97 to be $1.77 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 21.00 and appears to be $0.88 rich.

impVol_FTS_151109
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 20.28, looks $0.88 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp and resetting 2020-6-1, is bid at 15.01 and is $0.65 cheap.

pairs_FR_151109
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.52%, with no outliers. There are three junk outliers above 0.00% and one below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_151109
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.27 % 5.12 % 27,904 17.69 1 0.0000 % 1,819.2
FixedFloater 5.94 % 5.19 % 31,310 17.31 1 0.9464 % 3,286.8
Floater 3.98 % 4.01 % 62,634 17.37 3 1.1925 % 1,985.4
OpRet 4.85 % 4.78 % 34,596 0.78 1 -0.1975 % 2,712.1
SplitShare 4.75 % 5.66 % 152,742 4.38 5 0.1313 % 3,197.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1313 % 2,494.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.82 % 3.30 % 89,302 0.08 6 -0.0530 % 2,496.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.50 % 5.60 % 83,626 14.50 33 0.0657 % 2,598.6
FixedReset 4.75 % 4.45 % 217,132 15.62 76 -0.1505 % 2,152.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.16 % 109,812 5.42 34 -0.1746 % 2,584.9
FloatingReset 2.54 % 3.65 % 54,935 5.80 10 -0.2266 % 2,210.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -4.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.72
Bid-YTW : 8.58 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -3.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 19.35
Evaluated at bid price : 19.35
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -3.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 14.05
Evaluated at bid price : 14.05
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.07
Evaluated at bid price : 21.07
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.26
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.28
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 22.60
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.71
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 22.34
Evaluated at bid price : 23.11
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.53
Bid-YTW : 6.17 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.42
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 15.09
Evaluated at bid price : 15.09
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.12
Bid-YTW : 9.11 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 20.41
Evaluated at bid price : 20.41
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 19.79
Evaluated at bid price : 19.79
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.76
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 16.96
Evaluated at bid price : 16.96
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 16.12
Evaluated at bid price : 16.12
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 20.97
Evaluated at bid price : 20.97
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.16
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.16
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
NA.PR.Q FixedReset -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 20.28
Evaluated at bid price : 20.28
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.12
Evaluated at bid price : 21.12
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 20.56
Evaluated at bid price : 20.56
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 18.21
Evaluated at bid price : 18.21
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 12.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.00
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 23.89
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 22.15
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.29
Evaluated at bid price : 21.29
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
BNS.PR.A FloatingReset 1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 11.89
Evaluated at bid price : 11.89
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.66
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 2.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 3.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 15.13
Evaluated at bid price : 15.13
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 4.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 93,750 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 22.17
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 72,486 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.01
Bid-YTW : 6.93 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 47,561 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 15.13
Evaluated at bid price : 15.13
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 37,851 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.10
Bid-YTW : 8.87 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 32,921 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 19.35
Evaluated at bid price : 19.35
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 32,020 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 19.01 – 19.73
Spot Rate : 0.7200
Average : 0.4529

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.01
Bid-YTW : 6.93 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 16.12 – 16.83
Spot Rate : 0.7100
Average : 0.4602

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 16.12
Evaluated at bid price : 16.12
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %

POW.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.82 – 25.48
Spot Rate : 0.6600
Average : 0.4178

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 24.36
Evaluated at bid price : 24.82
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %

CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.97 – 21.50
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3262

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 20.97
Evaluated at bid price : 20.97
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.51 – 23.02
Spot Rate : 0.5100
Average : 0.3110

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 22.18
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %

RY.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 22.15 – 22.62
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.2749

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-09
Maturity Price : 21.76
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %

Market Action

November 6, 2015

Jobs, jobs, jobs!

Forget about ambiguity. The October jobs report left little doubt the U.S. labor market is back with a vengeance after a two-month lull.

The 271,000 gain in payrolls was the biggest this year and exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The jobless rate fell to a seven-year low of 5 percent and average hourly earnings over the past 12 months climbed by the most since 2009.

Investors have raised to about 70 percent the probability of a rate increase by policy makers’ December meeting, according to pricing in the federal funds futures market. That compares to 56 percent on Thursday, and assumes the effective funds rate averages 0.375 percent after liftoff.

The report also showed diminishing labor-market slack. The number of Americans working part-time because of a weak economy fell to 5.7 million in October, the lowest since June 2008.

There were even some private sector jobs in Canada!

Canada added 44,000 jobs in October, a gain that blew past expectations but was likely due to temporary hiring for the federal election.

The bulk of the new jobs were in the public administration sector and coincided with the last two weeks before the election in mid-October that saw the Liberals sweep to power.

The country lost 9,000 construction jobs and the resources sector continued to shrink, shedding another 8,000 jobs last month, according to the government’s latest labour report.

Alberta shouldered a big chunk of the losses, shedding 11,000 jobs in October.

Meanwhile, Ontario and British Columbia each added more than 20,000 jobs.

… so treasuries took a hit:

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries surged 10 basis points to 2.33 percent, following a four-day increase as bets on a Fed move next month crept up. The rate on the more policy-sensitive 2-year note jumped six basis points to 0.89 percent.

The yield on the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index climbed to 1.64 percent Thursday, the highest level since July 13. The gauge headed for a third weekly loss, with the decline totaling 1.2 percent.

There’s an interesting New York Fed piece on the Differences in Rent Inflation by Cost of Housing:

In this post, which is based upon our updated staff report on “The Measurement of Rent Inflation,” we present evidence that price changes for rent, which comprises a large share of consumer spending, can vary considerably across households. In particular, we show that rent inflation is consistently higher for lower-cost housing units than it is for higher-cost units. Note that since owners’ equivalent rent inflation is estimated from observed changes in rent of rental units, this finding applies to homeowners as well. While we cannot be certain about why this is the case, it appears to be at least partly related to how additional units are supplied to the housing market: in higher-price segments additional units primarily come from new construction, while most of the increase in lower-price segments comes from units that previously were occupied by higher-income households.

Putting these various threads together, it appears that the inverse relationship between prior rent levels and rent inflation may be related to a greater concentration of new residential construction in the higher rent level segments of the housing market, dampening the price response to a tightening in that market. As one moves down the rent level distribution, increases in the supply of housing increasingly come from previously higher-rent units, which may still have rents above the average of the incumbent units, pushing up rents more in such segments.

One interesting question is how various public policies designed to influence the level of housing costs affect the growth of that cost over time. We hope to explore this issue in future work.

Canadian preferred share investors are making new plans for the Christmas holidays!

Sailing-Yacht-Akasha-at-the-beach
Click for Big

The TXPL total return index has now recovered to its late July levels, meaning that the horror of August, September and early October has been reversed. There were a few days in August in which the TXPR total return index was higher than it is today, but the broad market is also quite close to extinguishing the past three months odd. Mind you, the five year Canada is back to where it was in early June (also early May and early January, for that matter) so the preferred share market is either lagging behind its driver, or the relationship has changed, or something else.

It was a superb day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 39bp, FixedResets winning an awesome 227bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 17bp. The Performance Highlights table is, of course, ridiculously long and contains no losers at all. Volume was very extremely awfully high.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151106
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 20.01 to be $0.45 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.51 cheap at its bid price of 14.50.

impVol_MFC_151106
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 21.70 to be 0.84 rich, while MFC.PR.J resetting at +261bp on 2018-3-19, is bid at 21.60 to be 0.68 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151106
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 17.08 to be $1.57 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 21.30 and appears to be $1.30 rich.

impVol_FTS_151106
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 20.07, looks $0.81 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp and resetting 2020-6-1, is bid at 15.02 and is $0.52 cheap.

pairs_FR_151106
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.56%, with one outlier above 0.00%. There are two junk outliers above 0.00% and two below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_151106
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.27 % 5.12 % 28,929 17.69 1 0.0000 % 1,819.2
FixedFloater 5.99 % 5.24 % 31,249 17.25 1 1.8638 % 3,256.0
Floater 4.02 % 4.07 % 63,387 17.25 3 1.7919 % 1,962.0
OpRet 4.84 % 4.48 % 34,074 0.79 1 -0.0790 % 2,717.5
SplitShare 4.76 % 5.76 % 153,350 4.39 5 -0.0246 % 3,193.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0246 % 2,491.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.82 % -0.71 % 87,549 0.08 6 -0.1587 % 2,497.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.51 % 5.62 % 83,407 14.47 33 0.3933 % 2,596.9
FixedReset 4.74 % 4.29 % 217,266 15.92 76 2.2657 % 2,156.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.16 % 5.21 % 110,943 5.42 34 0.1724 % 2,589.4
FloatingReset 2.53 % 3.78 % 56,779 5.81 10 1.3471 % 2,215.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.88
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.30
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.16
Evaluated at bid price : 22.77
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.05
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.86
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.73
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 11.65
Evaluated at bid price : 11.65
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.01
Evaluated at bid price : 20.01
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.78
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 23.53
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.42
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 3.15 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 16.30
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.31
Bid-YTW : 8.75 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.74
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.03
Bid-YTW : 3.34 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.30
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.52
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.85
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.38
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 11.72
Evaluated at bid price : 11.72
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset 2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.38
Evaluated at bid price : 21.38
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.58
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 3.02 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.40
Bid-YTW : 9.26 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 11.85
Evaluated at bid price : 11.85
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 2.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.46
Evaluated at bid price : 20.46
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.51
Evaluated at bid price : 20.51
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 2.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 2.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.89
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 5.03 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset 2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.97
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 2.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 2.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.07
Evaluated at bid price : 20.07
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 2.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.33
Evaluated at bid price : 20.33
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset 2.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 23.52
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 2.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 19.95
Evaluated at bid price : 19.95
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset 2.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 3.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 17.15
Evaluated at bid price : 17.15
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 3.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 3.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.94
Bid-YTW : 7.96 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 3.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.26
Evaluated at bid price : 20.26
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 3.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.53
Evaluated at bid price : 20.53
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 3.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 7.82 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 3.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 3.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 3.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 14.67
Evaluated at bid price : 14.67
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 3.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 3.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 15.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 3.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 3.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.66
Evaluated at bid price : 20.66
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 3.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.93
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 3.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 15.02
Evaluated at bid price : 15.02
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 3.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 3.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.89
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 4.41 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 3.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.49
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset 3.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.86
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 4.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 19.44
Evaluated at bid price : 19.44
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 4.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 4.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 4.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 4.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 4.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.95
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 4.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.04
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 4.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.95
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 4.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.21
Bid-YTW : 8.74 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 4.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 13.56
Evaluated at bid price : 13.56
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 5.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 15.28
Evaluated at bid price : 15.28
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 6.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.06
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 103,089 Desjardins crossed 19,900 at 14.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.40
Bid-YTW : 9.26 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset 54,655 TD bought 23,200 from RBC at 23.00 and sold 10,000 to Scotia at 23.24.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.97
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 53,664 Nesbitt crossed 41,600 at 21.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 40,462 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 35,661 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.95
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 33,577 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.66
Evaluated at bid price : 20.66
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
There were 70 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.F FixedReset Quote: 21.50 – 23.15
Spot Rate : 1.6500
Average : 0.9374

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 21.38 – 22.50
Spot Rate : 1.1200
Average : 0.7547

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 21.38
Evaluated at bid price : 21.38
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 15.31 – 16.00
Spot Rate : 0.6900
Average : 0.4621

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.31
Bid-YTW : 8.75 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 18.00 – 18.68
Spot Rate : 0.6800
Average : 0.4932

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %

CM.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 22.77 – 23.25
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3074

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.16
Evaluated at bid price : 22.77
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %

BAM.PF.B FixedReset Quote: 20.33 – 20.80
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3116

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-06
Maturity Price : 20.33
Evaluated at bid price : 20.33
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %

Market Action

November 5, 2015

Treasuries and swap spreads declined today:

The 10-year swap spread ended little changed after falling to negative 17.6 basis points Thursday, the lowest in Bloomberg data beginning in 1988. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The gap turned negative for the first time in three years in September. The spread reached record negative levels in other maturities as well, including the five- and seven-year.

Slumping Treasuries contributed to the narrowing of the spread. Yields on 10-year U.S. notes reached 2.26 percent Thursday, the highest since mid-September, as bets mounted that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as next month. Investment-grade corporate issuance may tally about $30 billion this week, putting further pressure on Treasuries. On top of all that, regulations enacted after the financial crisis have curtailed the amount of risk banks can take, leading them to scale back trading and lending.

“This is more of a Treasury-led move as all the on-balance sheet products are becoming more costly to dealers,” said Priya Misra, head of global interest-rate strategy in New York at TD Securities, one of the 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “Treasuries are an on-balance sheet product so they are getting more costly relative to swaps.”

swapSpreads
Click for Big

For those unfamiliar with swap spreads:

In finance, swap spread is a popular way to indicate the credit spreads in a market. It is defined as the spread paid by the fixed-rate payer of an interest rate swap over the rate of the on the run treasury with the same maturity as the swap. For example, if the fixed-rate of a 5-year fixed-for-float LIBOR swap is 7.26% and the 5-year Treasury is yielding at 6.43%, the swap spread is 7.26% – 6.43% = 83 bps.

The endlessly entertaining Sprott / Silver Bullion battle is entering yet another new chapter (emphasis from original):

Silver Bullion Trust (“SBT”) (TSX:SBT.UN) (C$) (TSX:SBT.U) (US$) confirmed today that the unsolicited offer by Sprott Asset Management LP and Sprott Physical Silver Trust (“Sprott PSLV”; and collectively, “Sprott”) for all of the outstanding Units of SBT has once again failed to achieve sufficient acceptance to satisfy the required minimum tender condition. As of October 30, 2015, only 39.64% of SBT Units were tendered, falling far short of the 66 2/3% minimum tender condition. As a result, Sprott has yet again, for the 6th time, extended the expiry date of the offer, which is now set to expire on November 20, 2015.

  • The Trustees will continue to act in the best interests of ALL Unitholders and cannot endorse a deficient offer that does not benefit ALL Unitholders. Principally because we don’t agree with them, Sprott has waged a smear campaign claiming poor governance and entrenchment of the Trustees. Their numerous unfounded allegations are intended to distract Unitholders from the deficiencies of their inadequate offer: no material premium, higher management fees, lower bullion security and safeguards, significantly reduced governance rights and higher potential tax liability for certain U.S. Unitholders.
  • •Sprott’s claims that SBT Units have “traded for most of their existence at double-digit discounts” [footnote] are completely false. In fact, SBT Units have, on average, traded in-line to net asset value (“NAV”) since SBT was established in 2009


Footnote reads: Rick Rule stated on October 1, 2015 during the Sprott webcast relating to the Sprott offer: “It must be stressed that neither [GoldTrust] nor [Silver Bullion Trust] have ever or very seldom traded close to or above par, they have in fact traded at a persistent discount and they’ve traded at a persistent discount for over a decade.”

There was an interesting paper today from the Boston Fed by Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, titled Credit Supply Disruptions: From Credit Crunches to Financial Crisis:

It is useful to reflect on how the financial environment changed in the interim between the bank credit crunch episode in the early 1990s and the recent financial crisis. What did we learn from the earlier crisis and how did the credit crunch literature help guide policy in the more recent crisis? Among the important changes were the consolidation of the banking sector and the dramatic growth in nonbank financial intermediaries, which are much more susceptible than banks to liquidity risks due to a lack of deposit insurance. This paper highlights the fact that while broker-dealers, money market mutual funds, and issuers of asset-backed securities were not particularly important in the early 1990s when the bank credit crunch occurred, they had grown dramatically over the subsequent two decades to become both a major source of financing and a key element in exacerbating the problems experienced during the recent financial crisis.

The key findings are:

  • •The earlier literature on credit crunches contributed importantly to economists’ understanding of how financial shocks can impact the real economy. The real estate shock that caused capital-constrained banks to reduce credit availability to households and firms provided an important lesson learned from the 1990 recession and the academic work that followed. That literature provided a helpful guide as to how to respond to adverse credit shocks.
  • •However, many of the financial innovations that occurred after the 1990 recession moved much of the issuance of credit to non-depository financial intermediaries. These intermediaries included money market mutual funds, broker-dealers, and issuers of asset-backed securities.
  • •While the main problem facing banks was how to satisfy capital constraints when experiencing large declines in capital, these nonbank intermediaries were much more susceptible than banks to liquidity shocks, runs on liabilities, and fire sales of assets. Although the earlier literature provided important context, the nature of the problems was quite different for non-depository entities. Because these potential problems of nonbank intermediaries had not arisen in the earlier credit crunch, they were largely ignored in the subsequent credit crunch literature.

It seems to me that the moral of the story so far is that during boom times, money is going to flow from willing lenders to willing borrowers, come what may. If it can’t do it through regulated channels, it will do so via unregulated channels. So the authorities, in their wisdom, are attempting to micro-manage the economy, through, for instance, changes in the qualifying rules for mortgages in Canada (which has led directly to mortgage fraud, as discussed on October 30) and changes in tax-deductability of mortgage interest in the UK, as discussed on October 19 and October 1. Which, no doubt, creates a lot of very nicely paid work for the bureaucrats and lets everybody know that Your Government Is Doing Something, but when it comes to human nature vs. political platitudes, you know how I’m placing my bets. If it’s not houses, it will be something else. Bre-X, Nortel, internet stocks … there will be a special prize for those who can guess what the Next Big Thing is going to be!

But fear not! The SEC is working diligently to ensure that people who make instant investment decisions based on randomly selected Twitter posts will be protected:

According to the SEC’s complaint filed in federal court in the Northern District of California, James Alan Craig of Dunragit, Scotland, tweeted multiple false statements about the two companies on Twitter accounts that he deceptively created to look like the real Twitter accounts of well-known securities research firms.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of California today filed criminal charges against Craig.

The SEC’s complaint alleges that Craig’s first false tweets caused one company’s share price to fall 28 percent before Nasdaq temporarily halted trading. The next day, Craig’s false tweets about a different company caused a 16 percent decline in that company’s share price. On each occasion, Craig bought and sold shares of the target companies in a largely unsuccessful effort to profit from the sharp price swings.

The SEC’s complaint charges that Craig committed securities fraud in violation of Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Rule 10b-5. The complaint seeks a permanent injunction against future violations, disgorgement, and a monetary penalty from Craig.

The SEC has issued an Investor Alert titled Social Media and Investing – Stock Rumors prepared by the Office of Investor Education and Advocacy. The alert aims to warn investors about fraudsters who may attempt to manipulate share prices by using social media to spread false or misleading information about stocks, and provides tips for checking for red flags of investment fraud.

Some may be interested in another Boston Fed paper by Daniel Cooper & Maria José Luengo-Prado titled Household Formation Over Time: Evidence from Two Cohorts of Young Adults:

Residential investment accounts for an important component of U.S. gross domestic product, and traditionally plays a strong role in business cycle expansions. U.S. residential investment has improved slowly during the recovery from the Great Recession, despite a relatively strong national rebound in house prices and record low interest rates. An important determinant of residential investment is the household formation rate, which is largely driven by young adults moving out of their parents’ homes after completing high school or college. New household formation can be offset when existing households combine, typically through marriage or by moving in with parents or other relatives for economic reasons. This paper uses National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data from the 1979 and the 1997 cohorts to examine how various demographic, economic, and geographic factors influence the rate of household formation among young adults, both within cohorts and over time across cohorts.

… with the key findings:

  • •Comparing parental co-residence rates for young adults between the ages of 23 and 31 years shows that the share of individuals living with parents declines with age, but that the share of those living with parents is higher at nearly every age for the 1997 cohort compared to the 1979 cohort.
  • •There is important variation in household formation by race both within a given cohort and over time. The share of black youth living with parents is substantially lower at young ages in both cohorts, but after the late teenage years, blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be living with parents than non-black/non-Hispanic youths. In the 1997 cohort, non-black/non-Hispanic and Hispanic youths, regardless of age, are more likely to be living with parents relative to their 1979 counterparts, while the rate of living with parents for blacks is unchanged.
  • •Overall, housing costs have a meaningful effect on the decision of young adults to live with parents. The share of the 1979 cohort living with parents rose with the cost of housing. Among the 1997 cohort, 23 year-olds living in regions with high housing costs were about 15 percent more likely to be residing with parents than same-age members of the 1979 cohort who were living in areas with low housing costs.

But Holy Smokarisms! Today FixedResets were …

Lamborghini_Speed2
Click for Big

… ON WHEELS!

It was a very strong, very uneven day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts flat, FixedResets up 164bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 25bp. The only losers on the ridiculously long Performance Highlights tables are BAM PerpetualDiscounts, which got whacked. Volume was very heavy.

Basically, FixedResets were strong all day:

TXPL_151105
Click for Big

I don’t think we can ascribe the move to ETF action – only one block of ZPR changed hands today, Scotia buying 16,000 from Nesbitt at 10.79. CPD was similarly boring, with CIBC buying 10,000 from RBC at 13.20 and TD crossing 13,600 at 13.36.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151105
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.75 to be $0.61 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.60 cheap at its bid price of 13.90.

impVol_MFC_151105
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 20.81 to be 0.61 rich, while MFC.PR.I resetting at +286bp on 2017-9-19, is bid at 21.92 to be 0.58 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151105
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 17.00 to be $1.13 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 20.69 and appears to be $1.22 rich.

impVol_FTS_151105
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.55, looks $0.89 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.69 and is $0.47 cheap.

pairs_FR_151105
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.53%, with no outliers. There are four junk outliers above 0.00% and two below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_151105
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.27 % 5.12 % 30,113 17.69 1 2.8939 % 1,819.2
FixedFloater 6.11 % 5.35 % 31,607 17.12 1 0.0643 % 3,196.4
Floater 4.10 % 4.15 % 63,890 17.09 3 1.6451 % 1,927.5
OpRet 4.84 % 4.36 % 33,436 0.79 1 -0.1183 % 2,719.7
SplitShare 4.76 % 5.69 % 155,319 4.39 5 0.0963 % 3,194.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0963 % 2,492.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.81 % 2.01 % 88,100 0.08 6 0.2253 % 2,501.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.53 % 5.63 % 82,422 14.45 33 -0.0040 % 2,586.7
FixedReset 4.85 % 4.34 % 214,334 15.70 76 1.6439 % 2,108.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.21 % 111,540 5.43 34 0.2519 % 2,585.0
FloatingReset 2.56 % 3.75 % 57,419 5.81 10 0.0562 % 2,186.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -2.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 20.51
Evaluated at bid price : 20.51
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 20.65
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.23
Evaluated at bid price : 21.23
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.97
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.10
Bid-YTW : 9.53 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 22.01
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.04
Evaluated at bid price : 21.04
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.04
Evaluated at bid price : 21.04
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.99
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.47
Bid-YTW : 8.35 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 11.50
Evaluated at bid price : 11.50
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 11.50
Evaluated at bid price : 11.50
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.66
Evaluated at bid price : 19.66
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.81
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 11.60
Evaluated at bid price : 11.60
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.61
Evaluated at bid price : 19.61
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.95
Evaluated at bid price : 19.95
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.55
Bid-YTW : 9.35 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 12.93
Evaluated at bid price : 12.93
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.09
Bid-YTW : 7.43 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.29
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 14.21
Evaluated at bid price : 14.21
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.98
Evaluated at bid price : 19.98
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.91
Evaluated at bid price : 19.91
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.34
Evaluated at bid price : 21.63
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.98
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 2.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.41
Evaluated at bid price : 19.41
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 2.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.68
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 2.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.99
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 2.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.06
Bid-YTW : 8.97 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 2.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 2.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 2.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.39
Evaluated at bid price : 21.72
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset 2.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.92
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 2.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 13.90
Evaluated at bid price : 13.90
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 2.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.91
Evaluated at bid price : 19.91
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 2.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 2.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.48
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet 2.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 2.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 16.05
Evaluated at bid price : 16.05
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 2.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 18.69
Evaluated at bid price : 18.69
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 2.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset 3.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 20.96
Evaluated at bid price : 20.96
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 3.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 3.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.41
Evaluated at bid price : 19.41
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 3.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 16.65
Evaluated at bid price : 16.65
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset 3.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 22.22
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 3.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 6.95 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 3.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.36
Evaluated at bid price : 19.36
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 3.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.49
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 3.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.95
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 4.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.55
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 4.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 5.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.97
Bid-YTW : 8.24 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
NA.PR.S FixedReset 151,227 STD crossed blocks of 50,000 shares, 35,000 and 34,600, all at 20.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
PVS.PR.E SplitShare 73,928 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.36
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 61,370 National bought 33,000 from Desjardins at 16.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 52,126 Scotia crossed 25,000 at 19.63.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.98
Evaluated at bid price : 19.98
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 51,942 RBC crossed 35,900 at 19.73.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.91
Evaluated at bid price : 19.91
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 45,210 TD crossed 25,000 at 18.92.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.41
Evaluated at bid price : 19.41
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
There were 57 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 22.29 – 23.20
Spot Rate : 0.9100
Average : 0.5805

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.29
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %

MFC.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 21.92 – 22.50
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.3431

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %

MFC.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 21.01 – 21.64
Spot Rate : 0.6300
Average : 0.4271

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.01
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %

TD.PF.C FixedReset Quote: 19.61 – 20.10
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3113

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 19.61
Evaluated at bid price : 19.61
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %

BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 21.00 – 21.50
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3317

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 14.50 – 14.96
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.2918

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-05
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %

Market Action

November 4, 2015

The Fed is making sure that nobody takes them for granted:

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley both said the central bank could boost interest rates as soon as next month.

“At this point, I see the U.S. economy as performing well,” Yellen said on Wednesday in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington. If economic data continue to point to growth and firmer prices, a December rate hike would be a “live possibility,” she said. Speaking in New York hours later, Dudley said he agreed with the chair, but “let’s see what the data shows.”

The Federal Open Market Committee said in its October statement that it will consider raising interest rates at its “next meeting,” citing “solid” rates of household spending and business investment. Yellen’s and Dudley’s comments reinforced the idea that next month is in the crosshairs for an increase, and placed the focus on upcoming employment and other economic data.

The market noticed:

Bonds are falling around the world as traders increased odds to more than 50 percent that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a seven-week high of 2.24 percent on Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said policy makers may move as soon as their December meeting. German yields reached a two-week high. Australian 10-year yields rose for a sixth day Thursday.

It was a strong day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 52bp, FixedResets winning 77bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 15bp. There are a lot of winners on the Performance Highlights table! Volume was well above average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.62%, equivalent to 7.31% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little under 4.4%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 290bp, a very significant narrowing from the 310bp reported October 28.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151104
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.51 to be $0.65 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.69 cheap at its bid price of 13.55.

impVol_BAM_151104
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 20.48 to be 0.75 rich, while MFC.PR.I resetting at +286bp on 2017-9-19, is bid at 21.41 to be 0.63 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151104
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.58 to be $1.26 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 20.65 and appears to be $1.48 rich.

impVol_FTS_151104
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 18.75, looks $0.50 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.15 and is $0.58 cheap.

pairs_FR_151104
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.53%, with two outliers above 0.00% and none below -2.00%. There are three junk outliers above 0.00% and one below -2.00%.

pairs_FF_151104
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.40 % 5.28 % 31,280 17.50 1 0.3226 % 1,768.0
FixedFloater 6.11 % 5.35 % 31,293 17.11 1 5.0676 % 3,194.3
Floater 4.16 % 4.21 % 62,859 16.96 3 0.8593 % 1,896.3
OpRet 4.83 % 4.20 % 33,402 0.80 1 0.1184 % 2,722.9
SplitShare 4.76 % 5.81 % 155,377 4.39 5 -0.1144 % 3,191.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1144 % 2,489.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.82 % 1.33 % 81,667 0.08 6 0.1859 % 2,495.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.53 % 5.62 % 81,348 14.44 33 0.5173 % 2,586.8
FixedReset 4.93 % 4.44 % 211,682 15.52 76 0.7749 % 2,074.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.18 % 5.20 % 111,220 5.43 34 0.1496 % 2,578.5
FloatingReset 2.56 % 3.76 % 56,694 5.81 10 0.3895 % 2,184.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 23.20
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 12.70
Evaluated at bid price : 12.70
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 23.99
Evaluated at bid price : 24.24
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.16
Bid-YTW : 8.91 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 21.07
Evaluated at bid price : 21.07
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.31
Evaluated at bid price : 19.31
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.81
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 11.40
Evaluated at bid price : 11.40
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 22.24
Evaluated at bid price : 22.59
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 21.28
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 23.76
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.82
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.46
Evaluated at bid price : 19.46
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.82
Evaluated at bid price : 19.82
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 11.77
Evaluated at bid price : 11.77
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 14.42
Evaluated at bid price : 14.42
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 16.58
Evaluated at bid price : 16.58
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 21.22
Evaluated at bid price : 21.22
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.95
Bid-YTW : 9.67 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.51
Evaluated at bid price : 19.51
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 2.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 24.19
Evaluated at bid price : 24.45
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 2.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.87
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.35
Evaluated at bid price : 19.35
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 2.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 16.11
Evaluated at bid price : 16.11
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 2.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 14.07
Evaluated at bid price : 14.07
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 2.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.71
Bid-YTW : 9.28 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 2.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.81
Bid-YTW : 6.16 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 2.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 13.55
Evaluated at bid price : 13.55
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 3.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 13.94
Evaluated at bid price : 13.94
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 3.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 3.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 15.59
Evaluated at bid price : 15.59
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 5.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.55
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 96,860 Scotia crossed 28,000 at 20.40; RBC crossed 39,700 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 56,793 TD crossed 32,300 at 11.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 11.40
Evaluated at bid price : 11.40
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 51,617 Scotia crossed 42,500 at 21.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
PVS.PR.E SplitShare 48,600 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.37
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 47,305 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.31
Evaluated at bid price : 19.31
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 46,885 Scotia crossed 30,000 at 19.31.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.51
Evaluated at bid price : 19.51
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
There were 46 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 12.70 – 13.50
Spot Rate : 0.8000
Average : 0.5240

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 12.70
Evaluated at bid price : 12.70
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 20.35 – 21.05
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.4684

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %

TD.PF.A FixedReset Quote: 19.52 – 19.99
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3230

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 19.52
Evaluated at bid price : 19.52
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %

NA.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 24.76 – 25.09
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2074

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.76
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %

RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.50 – 23.78
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1971

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-04
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %

TD.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 24.01 – 24.50
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.4123

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %