Category: Market Action

The Bank of Canada statement held no surprises:

Canada’s economy grew by 0.6 per cent at annual rates in the fourth quarter of 2012, with solid growth across most domestic components of GDP offset by a sharp reduction in the pace of inventory investment. The Bank expects growth in Canada to pick up through 2013, supported by modest growth in household spending combined with a recovery in exports and solid business investment. With a more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, residential investment is expected to decline further from historically high levels. The Bank expects trend growth in household credit to moderate further, with the debt-to-income ratio stabilizing near current levels. Despite the expected recovery in exports, they are likely to remain below their pre-recession peak until the second half of 2014 owing to restrained foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.

Total CPI inflation has been somewhat more subdued than projected in the January MPR as a result of weaker core inflation and lower mortgage interest costs, which were only partially offset by higher gasoline prices. Low core inflation reflects muted price pressures across a wide range of goods and services, consistent with material excess capacity in the economy. Core and total CPI inflation are expected to remain low in the near term before rising gradually to reach 2 per cent over the projection horizon as the economy returns to full capacity and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.

Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With continued slack in the Canadian economy, the muted outlook for inflation, and the more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.

The Financial Post points out:

In their statement, policymakers said that given the “continued slack in the Canadian economy, the muted outlook for inflation, and the more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, the considerable monetary stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required.”

That replaces the phrase “the timing of any such withdrawal is less imminent than previously anticipated,” which has accompanied recent rate announcements.

ETFs are a marvellous way for liquidity seeking investors to invest in illiquid markets. But friction works both ways:

Exchange traded funds have transformed the gold market. Since the first fund was launched nearly a decade ago, the products have become so successful in offering a simple way for investors to buy physical gold that they have acquired the nickname “the people’s central bank.”

But what happens when the people’s central bank decides to sell?

That is the question now haunting the bullion market. Since the start of January, gold ETFs have dumped 140 tonnes of gold. February saw the largest monthly outflow of gold from ETFs on record.

The sell-off is partly a reflection of broader negative sentiment towards gold, as investors become more confident in the global economy and put their money into riskier assets such as equities. Prices have slid 12 per cent since October to less than $1,580 (U.S.) an ounce, and are down 18 per cent from their record nominal high in 2011.

This taxonomy of sales traders made me laugh:

5.) Low Man –If I sneezed he’d say “bless you,” if I was tired and hung over he’d worry he’d done something wrong. He worked extremely hard, but the problem was he didn’t get a lot of respect from his own desk.

6.) The Man – He’d answer the phone “250k up – what do you want to do?” Management loved him—he was the busiest guy on Wall Street. All you had to do was ask him. He’d get business done and wears his firm’s crest on his sleeve. He worked for one of the white-shoe investment banks and had gone to one of the best schools. He wound up as an equity sales trader because he wasn’t smart enough to do something more difficult, but he always spun it that it was his choice to trade.

7.) Family Man – He’d been passed over for several promotions, and was often caught off the desk calling his wife to discuss the twins’ science project. He’d accepted the ceiling in his career; Family Man was honest, calm and genuinely cared about doing the right thing. He tended to whisper.

8.) Script Man – Every morning he’d call at the exact time using the exact voice from the day before. Early in his career he’d been confused about the business, so he decided to keep it simple. He never cracked a joke in his entire career

This characterization of entrepreneurs was interesting:

Some of the common characteristics that “turn out to be accurate predictors of entrepreneurial success” go back to when they were teenagers, said the release about the study, which looked at longitudinal data of more than 12,000 men and women.

Among them: the entrepreneurs had high IQs, came from stable families, had parents earning higher than average salaries, and they showed greater self-esteem, the release said.

But they also “exhibited aggressive behaviour and got in trouble as teenagers,” said one of the researchers, Ross Levine, a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley, in the release about the study, which he carried out with Yona Rubinstein of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

“This is the person who wasn’t afraid to break the rules, take things by force or even be involved in minor drugs.”

I mentioned BNS.PR.Y BNS.PR.P yesterday with reference to its imminent Exchange Date and the lack of guidance in the bank’s earnings release. The Financial Post has more:

John Nagel, head of the preferred share trading group at Desjardins Securities the firm that help design the rate reset pref, is also waiting anxiously, though he believes BNS should call the deal. “Half the people I have spoken to think they will call the issue; the other half think BNS will leave it out there because the rate [for the bank] is reasonable.”

If BNS doesn’t redeem, Nagel argues for investors there is better value in opting for the floating rate prefs, both from an initial absolute yield and the expectation that rates will rise over the next five years.

Nagel does have a point about floating rate: three month bills are averaging 0.96% while five-year Canadas are currently at 1.31% – it won’t take much of a nudge for the bills to average more than 1.31% over the next five years. Nagel has been previously quoted as favouring the Floating Rate option.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiumgs gaining 3bp, FixedResets off 5bp and DeemedRetractibles down 7bp. Volatility was minor. Volume was quite high.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 4.87%, equivalent to 6.33% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.25%, so the pre-tax interest equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 210bp, unchanged from February 27.

The Europeans are backing away from austerity:

European finance ministers opened the way for looser budget policies after a backlash against austerity thrust Italy into political limbo and shattered months of relative stability in European markets.

Italy’s deadlocked election, France’s refusal to make deeper budget cuts and protests against the shrinking of the welfare state across southern Europe escalated the rebellion against the German-led prescription for fighting the debt crisis.

Economic strains “may also justify in a certain number of cases reviewing deadlines for the correction of excessive deficits,” European Union Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters late yesterday after a meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels.

Meanwhile, there is chatter that loose money is required in Canada:

Hedge funds are amassing record bets against the Canadian dollar on speculation the Bank of Canada will drop its bias toward raising interest rates, putting it in unison with the rest of the Group of Seven nations.

Futures contracts wagering on a decline in the Canadian dollar versus its U.S. counterpart held by so-called leveraged funds totaled C$6.3 billion ($6.1 billion) in the week ended Feb. 26, according to Citigroup Inc., citing U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures. Overall, the data showed traders reversed bets on a rise in the Canadian currency during the five-day period for the first time in eight months.

Weak exports and record debts are eroding growth in the world’s 11th-largest economy, with the slowest expansion forecast this year since 2009. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney remains the lone central-bank head in the G-7 suggesting a rate increase. BlackRock Inc. and State Street Canada are among the fixed-income managers speculating that Carney may drop his tightening bias when the central bank meets tomorrow, making Canadian-dollar denominated assets less attractive to international investors.

Loose money is government policy – why, look at the 12Q1 Scotia Investor Presentation! 58% of their $188-billion mortgage portfolio is government insured. Thank you, Federal Junior Republicans!

One of the words that can generally be relied upon to turn brains into much is “privacy” (another is “kiddie-porn”). It was nice to see the word being used to eliminate a little stupid red tape:

Ontario’s privacy commissioner has ordered the LCBO to stop collecting personal information from people who buy alcohol through wine clubs.

Ann Cavoukian’s decision came after a wine club complained that the Liquor Control Board of Ontario required it to provide the names, addresses, phone numbers and selections of everyone taking part in bulk orders.
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“The LCBO has not provided my office with much more than anecdotal or hypothetical evidence to support its position that the illegal resale of liquor by wine clubs in this province is so problematic that it necessitates the collection of the personal information of club members who purchase wine through their clubs,” she wrote last week.

Scotia’s 12Q1 Quarterly Press Release did not contain a statement of intent to redeem BNS.PR.P, a FixedReset, 5.00%+205 that will reset 2013-4-30 at a yield currently forecast to be 3.25% if not called. Make of that what you will.

It was a very uneven day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 1bp, FixedResets winning 29bp and DeemedRetractibles up 10bp. Lots of volatility, comprised almost entirely of FixedReset winners. Volume was extremely high, helped along by the CU 4.50% Straight new issue and the CPX 4.50%+315 FixedReset new issue – and, doubtless, continued shuffling after the closing of TRP.PR.D yesterday.

Mark Gimein writes an interesting piece titled The Reason Wall Street Got So Rich in Two Charts:

The New York City data, though, are compelling. University of Chicago economists Steven N. Kaplan and Joshua Rauh have theorized that the main reason for the rise in Wall Street pay is that “asset managers, investment bankers, lawyers, and top executives now apply their talent to much larger pools of assets.” The bonus charts support that explanation.

You can argue about whether there’s something special about those folks, or whether they’ve just gotten lucky. You can’t argue with the math, which shows unequivocally that income at the top is growing because essentially the same number of people are splitting greater profits.

Next week I expect I’ll take a more careful look at this, moving beyond New York City. There are other factors to consider, like the drop in the city’s share of industry employment from about 30 percent in 1992 to 21 percent now. Nonetheless, I suspect the general principle that the jobs at the top of the economic ladder are becoming ever more lucrative as their industries scale up without adding staff will hold up. If so, that reveals some truths uncomfortable for both sides in the debate over incomes at the top. For the harshest critics of Wall Street. the fewer employees/more profits explanation isn’t exactly the cloak-and-dagger conspiracy they might wish for.

On the other hand, for those who think that all is just hunky-dory on the inequality front, this isn’t exactly a pleasing result either. Fewer people sharing more profits means Wall Street employees may be more “productive” — but not in any way that non-economists understand that word. It’s not that they work harder or have somehow gotten vastly smarter. It’s just that it doesn’t take many more people to do a $300 million deal than a $50 million. That basic fact does a lot to explain why incomes on Wall Street have grown. It doesn’t do anything to make it seem fair.

Fitch is gloomy on Canadian housing prices:

Canadian home prices are overvalued by about 20 per cent, Fitch Ratings says.

The rating agency’s estimate of how inflated prices are was included Monday in details of a new financial model that it is proposing to use to estimate the potential losses on pools of residential mortgages, which form the backbone of a number of securities that Fitch rates.

Naturally, every sleazebag politician in town is blaming the banks:

>Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is issuing a warning to the country’s banks, as stiff competition for mortgage customers is prompting lenders to cut rates heading into the key spring home-buying season.

“My expectation is that banks will engage in prudent lending – not the type of ‘race to the bottom’ practices that led to a mortgage crisis in the United States,” Mr. Flaherty said in a statement to the Globe on Sunday, after Bank of Montreal reduced its price on five-year fixed-rate mortgages to 2.99 per cent from 3.09 per cent.

Of course the lending will be prudent, chum – given that you are providing virtually unlimited mortgage insurance.

A new fund has started marketting …. North American Preferred Share Advantage Fund:

The Portfolio will be managed by Fiera Capital Corporation (“Fiera” or the “Portfolio Manager”).

In order to seek to achieve the Fund’s objectives, the Fund will invest the net proceeds of the Offering as follows: (i) at least 20% and up to 100% of the Fund’s assets, together with borrowings under the Fund’s loan facility or prime brokerage facility, will be invested in an actively managed, diversified portfolio consisting principally of Canadian preferred shares (the “Canadian Preferred Share Portfolio”); and (ii) the remainder of the Fund’s assets will be invested to provide leveraged, tax-advantaged exposure to the U.S. Preferred Share Portfolio.
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Fiera is one of the largest independent money managers in Canada with over $58 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2012, including over $36 billion in fixed income assets. Fiera is also one of the largest preferred share managers in Canada with approximately $1.75 billion in preferred securities.

“Independent” is a bit of a stretch:

Fiera Capital Corporation (TSX: FSZ) (“Fiera” or the “Firm”) ) and National Bank of Canada (“National Bank” or the “Bank”) (TSX: NA) announced today the closing of the transaction under which Fiera will acquire substantially all of the assets of Natcan Investment Management Inc. (“Natcan”) from the Bank for $309.5 million subject to reduction (“the Acquisition”). In return, the Bank, through Natcan, will receive 19,732,299 Class A subordinate voting shares of the share capital of Fiera (the “Class A shares”) as well as a cash payment of $85,553,219.
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The 19,732,299 Class A Shares (the “Consideration Shares”) over which the Bank exercises control and direction represent approximately 56.11% of the issued and outstanding Class A Shares and 35% of the total number of Class A Shares and Class B special voting shares in the capital of Fiera issued and outstanding. The Bank also received an option to acquire additional Class A Shares of Fiera at a market price determined on the day of exercise, equal to 2.5% of total shares outstanding at the end of September in each of 2013 and 2014. If the options are fully exercised, the Bank will own 40% of the outstanding shares of Fiera. The Bank will also be entitled to protect its ownership in Fiera pursuant to anti-dilution rights

It was a good solid day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 2bp, FixedResets up 8bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 10bp. Volatility was average, skewed to the upside; volume was below average but dominated by FixedResets, presumably due to the TRP.PR.D new issue.

Nothing happened today.

There was a solid gain for the Canadian preferred share market today, with PerpetualPremiums up 11bp, FixedResets winning 14bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Volatility was average. Volume was average.

Christine Harper of Bloomberg brings forward an interesting view on the effect of Basel III:

Investors such as Joshua Siegel, founder and managing principal at New York-based StoneCastle Partners LLC, see bigger changes at the other end of the spectrum. Small banks will seek mergers because their management teams are aging and new regulations are too costly to bear, he says.

“If you need one major overriding theme of the industry in the next three, five, seven, 10 years: massive consolidation, thousands of banks,” says Siegel, whose firm managed $5.1 billion as of the end of last year and invests in small banks. In the U.S., “I do see probably anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 banks being swallowed up, and what you’ll see then is a more- concentrated system.”

JPMorgan’s Dimon, a critic of regulations he views as unnecessary or excessive, has recently touted the benefits. He told Citigroup analysts this month that new rules will help banks such as JPMorgan, the largest in the U.S., win market share from smaller competitors, the analysts wrote in a report.

In Dimon’s view, they wrote, the changes will “make it more expensive and tend to make it tougher for smaller players to enter the market, effectively widening JPM’s ‘moat.’”

The new rules, it turns out, may be doing more to shield banks from competition than to make them safer.

US state pension funds are getting desperate; some of them may start blowing their brains out on hedge funds:

South Carolina’s $27 billion pension dove into private equity and hedge funds in 2008, hoping to increase returns that were at the bottom tenth of public- employee retirement funds.

Five years and $1.2 billion in fees later, its annualized gain of 1.3 percent still trails the median among public pension-systems, according to data compiled by Wilshire Associates Inc. In neighboring Georgia, the $53.5 billion teachers’ pension buys only stocks and bonds. It paid money managers $119.5 million over the same period and its annualized returns of 2.95 percent were in the top quartile.

U.S. public pensions, confronting an $800 billion funding gap for promises to retirees and chasing 8 percent annual returns amid slow growth and historically low interest rates, have turned to riskier investments in private equity, hedge funds and real estate.
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No state has rushed into the loosely regulated investment pools as South Carolina has. As of June 30, the pension had invested 56 percent of its portfolio with firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Bridgewater Associates LP and Apollo Global Management LLC. (APO)

DBRS confirmed HSE.PR.A at Pfd-2(low) Stable:

Husky’s financial profile remained stable in 2012. Husky maintains debt-to-capital and debt-to-cash flow ratios below its targets of 25% and 1.5 times (x), respectively. Integrated operations provided a partial natural hedge against pricing volatility in North American upstream operations. A modest free cash flow deficit in 2012 was largely a result of increased capex spending. Similar free cash flow deficits are anticipated until 2014, when cash flow contributions from growth pillars – namely, the oil sands, Atlantic Canada and Asia-Pacific – commence. DBRS believes the Company’s current liquidity is sufficient to fund cash flow shortfalls over the near term with minimal impact on credit metrics.

Key challenges facing the Company include: (1) managing its high-cost, long-lead-time capital projects, as significant spending is anticipated to fund growth plans (Husky targets 5% to 8% production growth per year through 2017). Incremental cash flow from these projects is not expected in the near term, which could result in pressure on the balance sheet, particularly during periods of significant, prolonged pricing declines. (2) Production is highly weighted toward North American operations (97% at 2012), which subjects Husky to both volatile North American crude oil prices and continued depressed North American natural gas prices (31% of production in 2012). (3) Credit metrics at the high end of Husky’s target ranges are aggressive for the rating category. Should credit metrics deteriorate above 30% debt-to-capital and/or 2.0x debt-to-cash flow, either due to unsuccessful growth in production despite higher capital spending, or prolonged pricing declines, DBRS would consider taking negative rating action.

It was another mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums off 2bp, FixedResets down 9bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 5bp. Volatility was average. Volume was high.

And that’s a wrap for another month!

To my surprise, an adult was quoted regarding the role of underwriters in capital markets:

In both cases, banks that profited by bringing the securities to market were later accused of misrepresenting the risks and contributing to losses. Their defense was that they were serving clients who wanted to buy the securities, as well as helping finance entrepreneurs and homeowners. They said they attracted undue criticism for essentially playing the role of middlemen and that they shouldn’t be held responsible for investors’ decisions to buy the securities.

“They’re intermediaries, and they’re not supposed to make up their minds for their customers as to what’s good for them, they’re supposed to supply them with what they want,” said Roy Smith, a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and a former Goldman Sachs partner.

Smith said bond prospectuses “point out repeatedly that just because the market price goes down, that’s not something we can be responsible for.”

However, I have no doubt but that a few lawyers and boxtickers at the SEC are excitedly preparing indictments against the salesmen who sell their clients things “they know are about to fall”.

Canadian Western Bank has announced an issuer bid for CWB.PR.A:

Canadian Western Bank (the “Bank”) today announced the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada (OSFI) have approved the Bank’s normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to purchase, for cancelation, up to 826,120 Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 3 (“preferred shares”). The number of preferred shares to be purchased under the NCIB represents approximately 10% of the 8,390,000 preferred shares issued and outstanding as at February 27, 2013.

Purchases under the NCIB may begin on March 1, 2013 and will end no later than February 28, 2014. The price paid for any preferred shares purchased will be the market price of such shares on the TSX at the time of acquisition. Purchases will be effected through the facilities of the TSX and all preferred shares purchased pursuant to the NCIB will be canceled. Apart from block purchase exceptions, the maximum number of preferred shares that may purchased per trading day is 1,538, an amount equal to 25% of the average daily trading volume of the preferred shares on the TSX for the six month period ended January 31, 2013.

Management believes the purchase of preferred shares below a certain price threshold represents an appropriate use of available funds and is also consistent with strategies to enhance shareholder value while ensuring the Bank maintains its solid regulatory capital position.

Since CWB has no history of following up on issuer bids, this announcement doesn’t get its own post – it has to slum it in the daily commentary. I don’t see any reason why they might follow this up with actual cash dollars anyway – at today’s closing bid of 26.65, the issue yields only 1.98% until the 2014-4-30 call date.

ALB.PR.B was confirmed at Pfd-2(low) by DBRS:

Current downside protection available to holders of the Class B Preferred Shares is 56.3% as of February 14, 2013.

The Pfd-2 (low) rating of the Class B Preferred Shares is based primarily on the downside protection and dividend coverage available, as well as on the strong credit quality and consistency of dividend distributions of the Portfolio holdings.

The main constraints to the rating are the following:

(1) The downside protection provided to holders of the Class B Preferred Shares is dependent on the value of the shares in the Portfolio.

(2) Volatility of price and changes in the dividend policies of the Canadian banks may result in significant reductions in downside protection from time to time.

(3) The entire Portfolio is concentrated in the Canadian financial services industry.

The Class B Preferred Shares will be redeemed by the Company on February 28, 2016.

It was another mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 5bp, FixedResets off 5bp and DeemedRetractibles up 15bp. Volatility was low. Volume was well above average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 4.91%, equivalent to about 6.38% interest at the standard conversion rate of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.3%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 210bp, a significant widening from the 200bp reported February 20.

It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good:

U.S. banks are looking to capitalize on a dearth of financing for Europe’s commercial property market that’s driven lending margins to five times the level prior to the 2008 crisis.

Citigroup Inc. (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) are following insurers and distressed investors allocating capital to the region as local banks, which overextended during the last boom, are forced to contract amid new regulations. Europe faces an $82 billion shortfall between the amount of real-estate debt maturing through this year and the funding available to replace it, according to real-estate broker DTZ.

The scarcity of capital means lenders can charge as much as 3.75 percentage points over benchmarks for the safest pieces of commercial mortgage debt, about five times the spread in 2007, according to Alvarez & Marsal, an adviser on real estate transactions. Those margins will enable banks to revive the market for commercial mortgage-backed bonds, which parcel loans and slice them into securities of varying risk, after it largely shut in 2008.

Meanwhile, the Fed may find selling is harder than buying:

MSCI applied scenarios devised by the Fed itself for stress-testing the nation’s 19 largest banks.

MSCI sees the market value of Fed holdings shrinking by $547 billion over three years under an adverse scenario that includes an economic contraction and rising inflation. MSCI puts the Fed’s mark-to-market loss at less than half that, or $216 billion, if the economy performs in line with consensus forecasts of gradually rising growth, inflation and interest rates.

The potential losses are unprecedented in the Fed’s 100- year history. Bernanke began describing in detail the risk of lower payments to taxpayers for the first time today in his monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee saying that “remittances to the Treasury could be quite low for a time” if interest rates “were to rise quickly.” Bernanke didn’t describe the overall interest-rate risk to the portfolio or potential mark-to-market losses. He said the Fed is “confident” it has tools to tighten monetary policy.

But at least the money is going into something other than mortgages:

Money is pouring into leveraged loan funds at an incredible pace. It’s a natural home for investors who are leery of buying bonds at this point in the cycle, when rates could be on the rise, but who still want credit exposure. Leveraged loans are usually floating rate. And that means protection from higher interest rates, unlike bonds, which will fall in price as rates rise.
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Among the biggest users of the leveraged loan market are private equity firms who use the financing for buyouts. The leveraged loan boom will help refinance balance sheets of portfolio companies, and fuel more new takeovers.

And the shadow trading sector is getting bigger:

Earlier today, JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced that it will reduce headcount in its consumer banking arm by 3,000 to 4,000 people this year.

Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. have also unveiled plans in recent months to shed staff. As early as this week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will begin its annual exercise to cull 5 per cent of its employees, with deeper cuts possible in equity trading, Reuters reported.
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But [Thomas DiNapoli, the comptroller of New York State] also noted that the industry employed 1,000 fewer people at the end of 2012 than it did a year earlier, adding that he believes “the industry will continue to restructure and downsize until a new business paradigm is established.”

If that doesn’t sound like a lot of fun, that’s probably an accurate assessment. Some traders have already decamped for hedge funds, where they don’t have to contend with the same regulatory constraints or reduced appetite for risk.

Best wishes for Graham Beck, who started working at Burns Fry in 1985, moved to the the preferred share desk in 1991 and today announced his imminent retirement from BMO Nesbitt Burns. As he says: a lot has happened in 22 years; and I’ll add that that extends to the names of his employer as well as the preferred share market!

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 4bp, FixedResets off 1bp and DeemedRetractibles up 15bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was extremely high.

More bad news out of Europe, even before the Italian election returns:

he euro zone will not return to growth until 2014, the European Commission said on Friday, reversing its prediction for an end to recession this year and blaming a lack of bank lending and record joblessness for delaying the recovery.

The 17-nation bloc’s economy, which generates nearly a fifth of global output, will shrink 0.3 per cent in 2013, the Commission said, meaning the euro zone will remain in its second recession since 2009 for a year longer than originally foreseen.

I was interested to see in an unrelated article that preferred share ETFs are the benchmark du jour for asset gathering:

There are eight minimum/low volatility exchange-traded funds listed in Canada and it’s fair to say the concept hasn’t caught on like wildfire given that assets under management are collectively less than $150-million.

By comparison, the BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF (ZPR/TSX) grew from zero to $160-million in the span of exactly three months. Judging by the amount of assets that have flocked to ETFs dedicated to the preferred share market, growth in that group is all but certain.

It has now been about three and a half months since the 2012-11-14 inception of ZPR and the fund is now at $243-million. Not bad!

It was a surprisingly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums off 5bp, FixedResets losing 31bp and DeemedRetractibles down 16bp. As indicated in the longer-than-usual volatility highlights, it looks like a relatively modest amount of selling pressure found few bids in the last half hour. Overall volume was extremely high, but block trading details are not yet available.

Moody’s downgraded the UK:

Britain lost its top credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the continuing weakness in the nation’s growth outlook and the challenges that presents to the government’s fiscal consolidation program.

The rating on the U.K. was lowered one level to Aa1 from Aaa and the outlook on the nation’s debt changed to stable, Moody’s said in a statement today. With the U.K.’s high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the government’s balance sheet is unlikely to be reversed before 2016, Moody’s said in the statement.

Yen Lee, a successful IT entrepreneur, has some hard truths about Canadians:

Canadians in general are looking for safe day jobs. Because Vancouver and Canada in general have not had the history of the home runs, like the Googles and the Yahoos and the Facebooks. And so, because they don’t see the upside, all they see is the risk involved with a start-up—because start-ups in Canada are sub-scale and don’t end up being big enough to exit. And that leaves the folks who are willing, that have a desire to be disruptive, the folks with an appetite for risk; those folks in Canada usually end up in the U.S.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums down 10bp, FixedResets gaining 4bp and DeemedRetractibles off 4bp. Volatility was minor. Volume was above average.

Poor little Encana’s having a temper tantrum:

A lawyer for Encana Corp. is demanding the deletion of an Internet posting containing audio of an Encana executive swearing.

On Feb. 14, during a quarterly results conference call, microphones caught someone – Encana has not said who – muttering an angry expletive. The audible whisper followed a question from Canaccord Genuity analyst Phil Skolnick, who asked: “But in terms of new investment guidelines which were updated, do you think that prohibits a company like Encana from being acquired?”
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Encana apologized after the conference call. The swearing does not appear in a transcript of the call, nor in a company replay of the audio.

The company now wants the clip off the Internet, too. On Thursday, Chirbit founder Ivan Reyes said he has received a takedown request from Encana.

I wouldn’t have posted anything about this yesterday because somebody swearing during a conference call is stupid, but not interesting. A major corporation getting its shorts in a knot over a triviality and displaying the collective brainpower of a fourteen year old girl, however, is fascinating. Especially when the fourteen year old girl hasn’t even heard of the Streisand effect. One can only assume that Encana management is not very bright.

Speaking of less-than-intelligent corporate management, there’s a bit more news about Scotia Capital’s persecution of David Berry:

“IIROC will not be appealing the decision,” said Elsa Renzella, IIROC’s director, enforcement litigation.
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One interpretation behind the decision not to appeal is that IIROC wanted to wash its hands of the whole affair after at least initially bending over backwards to accommodate the bank.

How accommodating was IIROC? At the time, it said the following: “We are pleased that Scotia Capital recognized in this settlement that, even though supervision was not an issue, it would not be appropriate to retain profits generated by the wrongdoing of its employees.”

In normal circumstances, it would be tough for a bank to get such an overwhelming level of support, given that the Berry/IIROC matter had not been heard and given that almost six years later the three-person panel said that “the preponderance of evidence suggests” that Berry’s immediate superiors knew of his tactics.
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And given the dynamics of Scotiabank upper management, a reasonable expectation would be that an attempt will be made to settle the matter [of Berry’s $100-million unjust dismissal lawsuit].

The dynamics: the bank is undergoing a change, with chief executive Rick Waugh seemingly set to leave in the near term. If the pundits have called it right, it seems Brian Porter, who was named president late last year, will replace Waugh.

Porter was Berry’s ultimate boss at the time the supposed transgressions occurred. If the matter is not settled and if Porter were put on the stand, the session would be well attended.

Berry was vindicated on January 17.

There’s an interesting US court case about Mutual Fund Fees:

>According to a 1982 legal precedent known as the Gartenberg standard, the courts will deem a fund’s management fee excessive only if it is “so disproportionately large that it bears no reasonable relationship to the services rendered and could not have been the product of arm’s-length bargaining.” In part because it is often difficult to isolate the portion of management fees covering the crucial work of picking stocks and bonds from other more mundane administrative costs, proving that has been virtually impossible.

Until now. In December U.S. District Judge Renee Marie Bumb in Newark, New Jersey, allowed a case known as Kasilag et al. vs. Hartford Investment Financial Services to proceed, denying Hartford’s motion to dismiss.
…
According to Kasilag’s complaint, in 2010 Hartford earned $157.6 million in investment management fees from six of its sub-advised funds and paid $57.6 million for subadvisory services to Wellington and Hartford Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a Hartford subsidiary hired as a sub-adviser.
…
A key argument plaintiffs put forth in the Hartford case is that competitor Vanguard offers similar funds run by Wellington for much less. Both the Vanguard Health Care and the Hartford Healthcare funds are run by Wellington. Vanguard has a total expense ratio of 0.35 percent, compared with the 1.49 percent charged by Hartford Healthcare’s A share class. That’s on top of the 5.5 percent front-end commission paid to brokers who sell it; Vanguard’s fund is no-load. Wellington declined to comment on the Hartford case.

It was a highly uninteresting day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 2bp, FixedResets up 1bp and DeemedRetractibles off 1bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was high.