Category: Market Action

TXPR closed at 589.62, up 0.96% on the day. Volume today was 4.75-million, second-highest of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 11.705, up 0.99% on the day. Volume was 89,520, third-highest of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 10.115, up 0.75% on the day. Volume was 105,310, well below the median of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were up to 3.56%.

How’s this for a fund?

Quadravest Capital Management Inc. (the “Manager’) is pleased to announce that Quadravest Preferred Split Share ETF (“Preferred ETF”) will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”) on June 27, 2024 under the symbol PREF. A final prospectus dated June 7, 2024 has been filed with the securities regulatory authorities in each province and territory in Canada.

The investment objectives of Preferred ETF are to provide unitholders with: (a) monthly distributions and (b) the opportunity for capital preservation, primarily through a portfolio of preferred shares of split share corporations.

Preferred ETF will seek to achieve its investment objectives by investing in an actively managed portfolio of split corp. preferred shares offered by Canadian split share corporations listed on a Canadian exchange. The Preferred ETF may also invest in preferred shares of other issuers, exchange-traded funds, other investment funds, equities or income-generating securities, and securities that are convertible into any of the above noted securities provided such investments are consistent with the Preferred ETF’s investment objectives.

Thanks to Assiduous Reader NK for bringing this to my attention!

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.72%, equivalent to 8.74% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates yielded 4.97% on 2024-6-24 and since then the closing price of ZLC has changed from 15.21 to 15.05, a decrease of 106bp in price, implying an increase of yields of 9bp (BMO reports a duration of 12.39, but don’t disclose whether this is Macaulay or Modified; I will assume Modified) to 5.06%. Therefore, the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has declined sharply to 370bp from the 390bp reported June 19.

How about that Canadian inflation, eh?

The annual inflation rate rose to 2.9 per cent in May while key measures of core inflation edged up for the first time in five months, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday. It was a significant miss versus Street expectations for an inflation rate of 2.6 per cent – which would have represented a decline from April’s reading of 2.7 per cent.

Markets immediately responded by sending the Canadian dollar higher, while domestic bond yields spiked as traders scaled back bets on the odds of another interest rate cut in July.

According to LSEG data (formerly Eikon), swaps markets are putting 45 per cent odds now on a second rate cut by the Bank of Canada on July 24. They stood at 65 per cent prior to the 830 am ET inflation report. Swaps are pricing in about 72 per cent odds of a rate cut materializing at the September Bank of Canada meeting (there is no meeting in August).

Some 50 basis points of additional easing is now priced into the market by the end of this year, which is modestly less than before this morning’s inflation data.

Pre-Inflation Announcement

Post-Inflation Announcement

TXPR closed at 583.54, up 1.28% on the day. Volume today was 1.20-million, lowest of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 11.62, up 1.04% on the day. Volume was 46,780, third-lowest of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 9.95, up 1.22% on the day. Volume was 314,940, fifth-highest of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were up to 3.38%.

TXPR closed at 574.32, up 1.04% on the day. Volume today was 4.81-million, by far the highest of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 11.46, up 1.24% on the day. Volume was 83,140, third-highest of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 9.82, up 1.76% on the day. Volume was 303,330, fifth-highest of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were up to 3.40%.

Readers of PrefLetter will remember that in the December 2023 edition, the appendix discussing ZPR contained a discussion of “edge effects” as they applied to quantitative investment management. This was brought to mind by recent reports of a huge edge effect (bolding added to highlight cause of edge effect):

The $72.34 billion Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK.P), managed by State Street Global Advisors, will buy some $10 billion shares of Nvidia while slashing its exposure to Apple, Matthew Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas research at State Street confirmed.

The changes are being made so the fund can bring its holdings inline with pending changes to the S&P Dow Jones Technology Select Sector index, which it tracks. The reshuffle would leave Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Nvidia sharing the top spot in both the fund and the index, with Apple becoming the runner-up, according to Bartolini.

On Tuesday, chipmaker Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company as its market value hit $3.33 trillion, surpassing that of Microsoft (MSFT.O).

Until now, the technology ETF had 22.5% of its assets invested in Microsoft, 21% in Apple, and only 6% in Nvidia, according to Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. That caused the fund to underperform its benchmark as Nvidia’s shares rose 173% this year.

By the end of trading this Friday, when the index rebalancing takes place based on last Friday’s market cap values, Microsoft will retain its dominance within the SPDR ETF’s portfolio, with a 21% weighting. Nvidia will have a 21% weighting as well, while Apple will plunge to 4.5%.
…
Index and portfolio construction rules mean that only two of the three technology giants can be held at a full weight — 21% — in the ETF. Any other large positions can’t exceed 4.5%. The rule, set in place in 1998 when the index was launched, caps total exposure to all stocks with a weighting of more than 5% in the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index at 50% of the portfolio.

This is just dumb and it’s going to cost investors a big pile of money as prices, naturally enough, are already reflecting the monster orders that are currently being written. But take heart, investment management fans! This completely unnecessary cost won’t be reflected in the fund’s performance against its index, because guess what? Thanks to the miracle of modern sleaziness, index providers routinely announce changes well in advance of their taking effect, so the cost is actually borne by the index vs. a ‘meta-index’ that has rational construction rules and does not permit (some might say “encourage”) speculators and facilitators to get in front of investment vehicles. And, of course, such ‘meta-indices’ aren’t calculated by anybody of note so the cost is never discussed.

Also, it’s worth pointing out that if these three behemoths start jostling for position in the market-capitalization department due simply to share prices, there’s the potential for more such idiotic switches. This will be bad not only for technical reasons due to market impact of the ensuing trading, but because the practitioners will be trapped in a cycle of buy-high, sell-low, which is not usually an investment goal.

In cheerier news, the UK is being urged to get with the programme:

Britain should set a date for halving the time it takes to settle a stock trade – and stick with it, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler said on Thursday.

Britain has said that UK stock markets should halve the time it takes to settle a trade on the London Stock Exchange and other platforms by the end of 2027, at the latest, to match Wall Street’s move last month to complete a stock trade within one business day (T+1).

Canada and Mexico also shifted to T+1 last month to cut risks in markets and save on trading costs.

The European Union has said that moving from T+2 to T+1 is a matter of when, rather than if, and some industry officials want Britain and the EU to synchronize the shift given the markets are interlinked.

Gensler told an event in London held by UK Finance, a banking industry body, that the U.S. move cut the average amount of margin required by clearing houses by 25% to 30%, equivalent to about $3.8 billion, in first two days.
…
The move to T+1 is seen as a precursor to same day settlement for stocks, already in place in China for A shares.

TXPR closed at 568.42, down 0.71% on the day. Volume today was 2.29-million, above the median of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 11.32, down 0.62% on the day. Volume was 116,970, second-highest of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 9.65, down 0.82% on the day. Volume was 382,670, third-highest of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were up to 3.34%.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.78%, equivalent to 8.81% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates yielded 5.07% on 2024-6-7 and since then the closing price of ZLC has changed from 15.02 to 15.30, an increase of 186bp in price, implying a decrease of yields of 15bp (BMO reports a duration of 12.31, but don’t disclose whether this is Macaulay or Modified; I will assume Modified) to 4.92%. Therefore, the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has exploded to 390bp from the 355bp reported June 12.

TXPR closed at 570.98, down 1.50% on the day. Volume today was 2.06-million, above the median of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 11.43, down 0.87% on the day. Volume was 68,410, above the median of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 9.72, down 1.12% on the day. Volume was 203,040, fourth-highest of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were up to 3.37%.

The day was enlivened by the announcement that IAF.PR.B, a heavily discounted Straight Perpetual, would quite possibly get redeemed. It was enlivened even more by the fact that dissemination of this news was not quite as even-handed as might be considered ideal. Still, it’s entertaining to see a not-insignificant issuer make such a declaration that the preferred share market is cheap, cheap, cheap on the same day that prices fell through the floor.

There are worries about liquidity … in the Treasuries market:

U.S. bond market participants are worried market liquidity will keep deteriorating as the U.S. Treasury continues to issue large amounts of debt to back deficit spending while dealers struggle to keep up with the ballooning size of the market.

Liquidity – or the ability to trade an asset without significantly moving its price – has worsened over the past few years. U.S. government bond prices have fluctuated sharply since the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates to tame inflation and the issue was discussed during several panels at the Fixed Income Leaders Summit event in Boston on June 13-14.

Regulators and the Treasury itself have launched a slate of reforms to improve trading conditions and avoid disruptions in the world’s biggest bond market, the bedrock of the global financial system. Still, many are concerned that vulnerabilities that emerged in previous incidents, such as in March 2020 when liquidity rapidly deteriorated amid pandemic fears, could still reappear in case of spikes in volatility and as demand struggles to keep up with supply.
…
New York Fed researchers said in a paper last year that yield volatility explains most of the variation in Treasury market liquidity. But they also noted “a significant loss in U.S. Treasury market functionality when intensive use of dealer balance sheets is needed to intermediate bond markets, as in March 2020.”

TXPR closed at 579.69, down 0.66% on the day. Volume today was 1.41-million, below the median of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 11.53, down 0.35% on the day. Volume was 44,560, third-lowest of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 9.83, down 0.20% on the day. Volume was 144,200, near the median of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were down to 3.34%.

Well, that’s been a day of interest! My server-guy bricked my website server this morning and I’ve been without eMail and uncertain about when anything would come back; and all this on a PrefLetter weekend! Things appear to OK … for now.

TXPR closed at 583.56, down 0.72% on the day. Volume today was 2.26-million, fourth-highest of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 11.57, down 0.94% on the day. Volume was 59,790, slightly above the median of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 9.85, down 1.20% on the day. Volume was 127,530, near the median by far of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were down to 3.38%.