Category: Market Action

BIS has released a Countercyclical capital buffer proposal:

The countercyclical capital buffer will work by giving each jurisdiction the ability to use their judgement to extend the size of the minimum buffer range established by the capital conservation buffer.
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Under this proposal, buffer add-on decisions would be preannounced by 12 months to give banks time to meet the additional capital requirements before they take effect, while reductions in the buffer would take effect immediately to help to reduce the risk of the supply of credit being constrained by regulatory capital requirements.
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A buffer range is established above the regulatory minimum Tier 1 capital requirement and capital distribution constraints will be imposed on the bank when capital levels fall within this range. The constraints imposed only relate to distributions, not the fundamental operations of the bank.

The distribution constraints imposed on banks when their capital levels fall into the range increase as the banks’ capital levels approach the minimum requirement. By design, the constraints imposed on banks with capital levels at the top of the range would be minimal. This reflects an expectation that banks’ capital levels will from time to time fall into this range. The Basel Committee does not wish to impose constraints for entering the range that would be so restrictive as to result in the range being viewed as establishing a new minimum capital requirement.

The table below illustrates how it is proposed that the capital conservation buffer operates using discrete bands. The numbers in the table are illustrative as the proposal still needs to be calibrated. Using the table as an example, the buffer range is divided into quartiles. If a bank suffers losses such that its capital level falls into the second quartile above the minimum requirement then the bank would be required to conserve 80% of its earnings in the subsequent financial year9 (ie payout no more than 20% in terms of dividends, share buybacks and discretionary bonus payments). If the bank wants to make payments in excess of the constraints imposed by this regime, it would have the option of raising capital in the private sector equal to the amount above the constraint which they wish to distribute. This would be discussed with the bank’s supervisor as part of the capital planning process.

Perhaps stung by IMF criticism of the pace of reforms, BIS has released a statement of progress highlighting their consultation paper on countercyclical buffers discussed above and inchoate proposals for contingent capital:

The Committee also reviewed proposals for the role of “gone concern” contingent capital in the regulatory capital framework and will issue shortly a proposal for consultation. It continues to assess proposals on contingent capital from a “going concern” perspective.

Themis Trading reports that internet gamers take their avocation more seriously than the average investment manager takes their fiduciary duty … and opines that this is a good thing:

Today we just got a call from a firm that sells specialized computing hardware for the online gaming industry. Apparently there are folks who play Call of Duty version XYZ, or whatever game, professionally for money, and these guys need faster speed. Anyways, this firm sells computer servers that are sitting in liquid, so that they are cooler, and can be faster. The gaming professionals buy these servers for this reason. This firm bragged to us that they just sold their server to a High Frequency Trading firm for the first time, and thought we might want one too.

Is this what are markets have come to?
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Are the capital markets really about making sure that these guys can turn the markets into a giant arms race, where everyone has to pay up for liquid-submersible computers and co-location rents just so that they can get fair access to the same bids and offers?

Moody’s cut Ireland a notch to Aa2.

The EU Stwess Tests will be published on June 23.

There was good volume on the Canadian preferred share market today, as PerpetualDiscounts gained 11bp and FixedResets lost 3bp.

The penny just dropped on US Financial Reform:

Bank of America Corp. led financial stocks lower after saying U.S. curbs on debit-card fees may trigger a $10 billion charge, spurring speculation that rival banks have underestimated their own costs.
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The slide began after Bank of America said rules in the financial industry overhaul, including the Durbin amendment’s curbs on debit-card fees, may prompt the charge and trim annual revenue by $2.3 billion, more than some of the most pessimistic estimates. JPMorgan Chase & Co., ranked second by assets in the U.S., dropped as much as 3.6 percent.
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Moody’s Investors Service said in June that Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, the three biggest U.S. debit-card issuers, may face $1.38 billion in annual lost revenue from the proposed cap on “swipe” fees. DBRS Inc., the Toronto-based ratings firm had said the impact just for Bank of America could be $1.9 billion.

Bank of America’s debit-card revenue could shrink by $1.8 billion to $2.3 billion starting in the third quarter of next year because of restrictions on fees merchants can charge for each swipe of a debit card, Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said in a presentation today.
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The bank also expects a goodwill charge of $7 billion to $10 billion in the third quarter tied to the value of the business after President Barack Obama signs the regulatory reform law approved by Congress this week, Chief Financial Officer Charles Noski said on a conference call.

Note that it looks like the Credit Rating Agencies got it wrong! It must be because they’re corrupt! They’re paid by the issuers, you know! Quick, make them a public utility, so they can be run as efficiently as the Toronto Transit Commission!

Speaking of the CRAs, DBRS has announced a GREAT LEAP FORWARD!!!

The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Code of Conduct Fundamentals for CRAs (IOSCO Code) requires that SF ratings be differentiated from corporate bond ratings, preferably through a different rating symbology.*
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Currently, DBRS press releases specify the type of rating being published, such as whether it is an SF rating, a Financial Institutions rating or a Public Finance rating (the PR Notation). Effective August 16, 2010, the PR Notation on all DBRS press releases will no longer be used.

For its SF modifier, DBRS will use the symbol “(sf)” next to the rating category for ratings that meet the requested criteria in its public press releases and rating reports. The “(sf)” symbol will only indicate that the security is an SF instrument and will not change the meaning or definition of the rating in any other way nor will it change the risk of any particular SF instrument. DBRS’s expectation of the performance of each rated SF instrument is not adjusted in any way by the SF modifier.

Isn’t that convenient? Investors will no longer have to read the prospectus to discover deeply hidden facts like such-and-such is a structured investment, it will be right there in the rating! No need for any thought at all! Thank you, IOSCO!

Another strong day on high volume for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 24bp and FixedResets up 16bp, taking the median weighted average Yield-to-Worst of the latter class down to 3.57%. The all-time low yield for that index is 3.31% on March 26.

Bernanke announced that his boss is doing a great job. The American Bankers’ Association isn’t so sure:

The American Bankers Association is very disappointed with the regulatory reform bill that is now headed for enactment. While its core provisions provide needed reform, it is overloaded with new rules and restrictions on traditional banks that did not cause the financial crisis. The result will be over 5,000 pages of new regulations on traditional banks and years of uncertainty as to what the massive new rules will mean.

To my great disappointment, Goldman knuckled under to regulatory extortion:

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Goldman, Sachs & Co. will pay $550 million and reform its business practices to settle SEC charges that Goldman misled investors in a subprime mortgage product just as the U.S. housing market was starting to collapse.

However, the SEC agrees that Goldman committed no actual wrongdoing:

Goldman agreed to settle the SEC’s charges without admitting or denying the allegations by consenting to the entry of a final judgment that provides for a permanent injunction from violations of the antifraud provisions of the Securities Act of 1933.

The SEC trumpets the Goldman statement:

Goldman acknowledges that the marketing materials for the ABACUS 2007-ACI transaction contained incomplete information. In particular, it was a mistake for the Goldman marketing materials to state that the reference portfolio was “selected by” ACA Management LLC without disclosing the role of Paulson & Co. Inc. in the portfolio selection process and that Paulson’s economic interests were adverse to CDO investors. Goldman regrets that the marketing materials did not contain that disclosure.

I can see it’s time to take legal advice; perhaps my fund documents should include a disclosure to the effect that “Everything the fund owns was sold to it by somebody else.”. Perhaps that will help keep me out of trouble.

The rally in the Canadian preferred share market continued on heavy volume today, with PerpetualDiscounts up 24bp and FixedResets up 18bp.

Nothing happened today, either. Except …

Another day of heavy volume and positive returns in the Canadian preferred share market today, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 34bp and FixedResets up 24bp … taking the Yield-to-Worst for the latter index down below 3.50%. Hallucination! – JH 7/15

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.92%, equivalent to 8.29% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x. Long Corporates now yield about 5.5%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the Seniority Spread) is now about 280bp, a nice little tightening from the 290bp reported on July 7.

Nothing happened today.

PerpetualDicounts were up 16bp and FixedResets gained 8bp on very heavy volume.

Regulators have discovered there’s one teeny-tiny problem with quality: it costs money:

A push to water down stringent standards proposed last year by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and to allow more time to implement them, is led by France and Germany, according to bankers, regulators and lobbyists involved in the talks. Representatives from the U.S. and the U.K., who have sought to rein in risk-taking, are willing to compromise on how capital is defined to reach an agreement at a committee meeting that begins tomorrow, the people said.

Another concession may involve granting transition periods of up to 10 years to ease concerns of some member countries that their banks and economies won’t be able to bear the burden of tougher capital requirements until a recovery takes hold. As a result, the amount of capital European banks will be forced to raise in the next two years won’t be as much as investors fear.
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One part of the definition would exclude minority interests that banks hold in other financial institutions when calculating common equity on the theory that they can’t readily withdraw the capital. Many European lenders, which have lobbied against the rule, have non-controlling stakes in emerging-market banks that would no longer count as the highest level of capital, while the assets of the subsidiaries would have to be included in the banks’ risks.
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European banks are likely to win a concession on the minority-stakes rule, according to the people involved in the talks. One possible compromise would allow a bank to count part of its stake in relation to the risk the capital is supposed to cover at the entity in which it invested, the people say.
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A study released in June by the Institute of International Finance, which represents more than 375 financial companies, said the regulations could erase 3.1 percent of gross domestic product in the U.S., the euro region and Japan by 2015. About 9.7 million fewer jobs could be created over the five-year period than would otherwise be the case, the IIF said.

Regulation is “never free,” said Bank of New York Mellon Corp. Chief Executive Officer Robert Kelly, who visited London and Brussels in June to meet lawmakers and regulators with the Financial Services Roundtable, a Washington-based industry group. “There has to be some impact on growth and jobs.”

The Basel committee, whose members have touted the benefits of financial stability, is preparing its own economic impact study with the help of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel and the International Monetary Fund.
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Banks currently need to hold capital equal to a minimum of 8 percent of risk-weighted assets. Half of that must be Tier 1 and half of the Tier 1 needs to be common stock. The Basel committee might triple the common ratio requirement and double Tier 1, [Paul Miller, an analyst for FBR Capital Markets] estimates.
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BNY Mellon’s Kelly said the original Basel proposals would have forced some banks’ return on equity, a measure of profitability, to mid-single digits.

“If that was true, then they effectively become government utilities, because you couldn’t really raise capital in the private markets after that,” he said.

The IIF report is titled Interim Report on the Cumulative Impact on the Global Economy of Proposed Changes in the Banking Regulatory Framework and is available via a lengthy press release.

I will be most interested to see the promised regulatory response to that and will review the papers on PrefBlog when available … but I am ecstatic that this is being discussed. In Canada we – or OSFI and the politicians, anyway – are always touting the benefits of a very highly capitalized banking system, but never discuss the cost; and there is a cost. That’s a lot of capital tied up that could be invested in other things. I’m not saying I advocate lower capitalization … what I am advocating is an honest debate.

The Canadian experience is interesting … with banks, we obsess about stability and never discuss cost, whereas with electricity we obsess about cost and never discuss stability.

A good day on low volume for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 11bp and FixedResets up 15bp.

Naturally, the poster child for the financial crisis is the American homeowner, flim-flammed into buying a house and now being foreclosed. But see Subprime mortgages: Myths and reality for one take on this … and now it’s hitting the papers:

Whether it is their residence, a second home or a house bought as an investment, the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population.

More than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent, according to data compiled for The New York Times by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.

By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.

Though it is hard to prove, the CoreLogic data suggest that many of the well-to-do are purposely dumping their financially draining properties, just as they would any sour investment.

One of the big problems with the US system is that, typically, mortgages are extended without recourse. Instead of layering on extra rules, as I reported Fannie Mae did on June 23, simply charge a premium for non-recourse mortgages. Piece of cake, and one big source of problems eliminated.

Low volume today, but prices did OK, with PerpetualDiscounts up 7bp and FixedResets up 5bp.

There’s some criticism of the European stress tests:

Regulators have told lenders the tests may assume a loss of about 17 percent on Greek government debt, 3 percent on Spanish bonds and none on German debt, said two people briefed on the talks who declined to be identified because the details are private.

“This isn’t a stress test,” said Jaap Meijer, a London- based analyst at Evolution Securities Ltd. It’s “merely the current valuation of government bonds.”

Credit markets are pricing in losses of about 60 percent on Greek bonds should the government default, more than three times the level said to be assumed by CEBS. Derivatives known as recovery swaps are trading at rates that imply investors would get back about 40 percent in a Greek default or restructuring.

“I wonder how much these stress tests are reverse- engineered to inspire confidence in the market” and banks, said Bruce Packard, an analyst at Seymour Pierce Ltd. in London.

Reverse engineering? Surely not! That’s done by evil bonus-seeking bankers underwriting sub-prime, not by Holy Regulators!

American banks are hoping to generate investor opposition to fair value accounting:

The American Bankers Association opposes the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s plan to apply fair-value rules to all financial instruments, including loans, rather than just to securities. The group says the rule could make strong banks appear undercapitalized.

The association’s website, noting that FASB’s stated mission is to serve investors, provides a sample letter for people writing to the board and suggests they focus on why the proposal isn’t “useful for investors.”

The ABA has devoted a whole page to the campaign.

State Street reached for yield – and suffered:

State Street Corp., the third-largest U.S. custody bank, reported second-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ estimates because of a $251 million after-tax charge related to its securities lending business.
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State Street recorded the charge, which reduced earnings by 50 cents a share, to replenish funds that managed money on behalf of securities lenders. The funds invest cash deposited as collateral by securities borrowers. The injection allows State Street to lift redemption restrictions placed on clients in the fall of 2008 after the funds suffered losses.

Pensions & Investments has some interesting background:

It could be argued that the U.S. pension fund sector had historically engaged proportionately more in leveraged finance — by lending securities to raise cash collateral that can be reinvested for returns — than securities lending over recent years and that pension funds only very recently adopted a profile more in line with the U.S. mutual fund sector. That profile has maturity and liquidity more in line with the underlying loan transaction, that is, short term.

The mean return of the total return to lendable securities in a portfolio generated by the U.S. pension fund sector is almost double than that of the U.S. mutual fund sector over the three-year period under consideration. What should really worry the pension fund sector now is that the difference is at its historic low. The pension fund sector has reined in reinvestment guidelines and reduced its return expectations to reduce risk.

AIG writ small!

It was a good day in the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 16bp and FixedResets gaining 3bp. Volume was moderate.

There’s some doubt about the EU stress tests:

Investors say they don’t know if some banks are hiding bad loans, whether they have enough capital to withstand a debt default by a European state and whether governments can afford to rescue them. The European Union still hasn’t disclosed the tests’ criteria, including if they contain a sovereign default.
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Protecting the senior bonds of 11 U.S. banks from default using credit default swaps costs an average of about 144 basis points, according to data compiled by CMA DataVision. In Europe, the average cost has climbed to about 224 basis points this year, the data show.
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Europe’s largest banks are trading at a discount to their book value while their U.S. counterparts trade at a premium. Europe’s 20 largest lenders are trading at about 10 percent less than the net value of their assets. The 20 biggest U.S. banks trade at a 10 percent premium, Bloomberg data show.
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Some European lenders used accounting-rule changes made in October 2008, about a month after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse, to allow them to avoid writedowns on assets based on plunging market values, unless a default was deemed likely. Under pressure from EU leaders, the International Accounting Standards Board approved changes letting financial institutions in more than 100 countries that use International Financial Reporting Standards to reclassify some investments so they no longer had to book paper gains and losses as credit markets fluctuated.

Deutsche Bank, for example, used the change to shift about 38 billion euros of assets, including commercial real estate and leveraged finance, into its loan book from the third quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, saving it a net 3.2 billion euros in markdowns based on valuation gains and losses through the first quarter of 2010. ING Groep NV, the biggest Dutch financial-services company, reclassified 24.4 billion euros and Societe Generale SA shifted 25.3 billion euros in assets, escaping about 2.8 billion euros in losses.

Perhaps in response (yes, OSFI, sometimes regulators respond to investor outcry! How ’bout dat?), C-EBS has released some details:

The macro-economic scenarios include a set of key macro-economic variables (e.g. the evolution of GDP, of unemployment and of the consumer price index), differentiated for EU Member States, the rest of the EEA countries and the US. The exercise also envisages adverse conditions in financial markets and a shock on interest rates to capture an increase in risk premia linked to a deterioration in the EU government bond markets.

On aggregate, the adverse scenario assumes a 3 percentage point deviation of GDP for the EU compared to the European Commission’s forecasts over the two-year time horizon. The sovereign risk shock in the EU represents a deterioration of market conditions as compared to the situation observed in early May 2010.

Mr Joseph S Tracy, Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, spoke at the Westchester County Bankers Association, Tarrytown, New York, 25 June 2010, drawing parallels between the Credit Crunch and the Panic of 1907.

There’s an interesting trend in bond underwriting:

Borrowers are obtaining credit from banks competing for a pool of bond deals that dropped to $1.18 trillion in the first half from $1.92 trillion a year earlier as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis pared sales, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The number of banks on each high-yield deal has almost tripled since 2000, cutting fees by an average of 57 percent per firm.

“We’ve been very clear with our banking business partners that we’ll take care of those who are good to us,” said Martin of London-based Virgin, which enlisted a record 14 banks to sell debt in January. “If you want to be in the bond, we need you to give us your balance sheet as well.”

Martin included Credit Suisse, Citigroup, Barclays Capital and HSBC Holdings Plc in Virgin Media’s bond offering, along with 10 other managers, after they agreed to join a 1.925 billion-pound ($2.9 billion) credit facility. The four banks, whose spokesmen declined to comment, ultimately weren’t needed on the loan.

There’s a big TIPS sale tomorrow and speculation there will be a big concession:

Barclays Plc’s Michael Pond, the top-rated analyst of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, said the U.S. may struggle to sell a record-tying $12 billon of the securities tomorrow with the government likely to bolster the size of future auctions and inflation expectations low.

“We are concerned that the market will have difficulty absorbing this much supply given other headwinds and believe a significant concession is needed for the auction to go well,” Pond said in a note to clients dated July 2. “The level of real yields combined with the size presents a high hurdle for a good auction.”
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The $12 billion of 10-year TIPS will match the record amount sold in January 2004. The U.S. will sell $30 billion of the security during the second half of 2010, based on the size of tomorrow’s auction and the Treasury’s plans to reopen the issue twice, Pond wrote. That amount is up from $15 billion worth of sales during the second half of last year and the historical high of $21 billion during the first half of 2004, he wrote.

Real yields, which take into account inflation or deflation, have fallen to 1.218 percent on 10-year Treasuries, from 1.685 percent April 2, according to Bloomberg Data. Current real yield levels, only 30 basis points away from the 91 basis point yield experienced in March of 2008 during the deflation scare, leaves the security with “limited upside,” Pond wrote. “At current levels, this would be the lowest yield at a 10-year TIPS auction.

I was briefly quoted in the Globe, deprecating GICs:

So why would anyone choose a government bond?

“The main thing is liquidity,” says James Hymas, president of Hymas Investment Management in Toronto.

With most GICs (cashable GICs being the major exception), you agree to lock in your money for a certain period. In exchange, you earn a higher return. Bonds can be sold at any time, but you earn a lower return.

“I don’t really recommend GICs at the best of times because of the liquidity issue,” he says.

The semi-annual TXPR index rebalancing should be announced soon – last year’s announcement was on Friday, July 10.

PerpetualDiscounts were flat on the day, while FixedResets rose by 15bp on average volume.

PerpetualDiscounts now show a median-weighted-average yield of 5.99%, equivalent to 8.39% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x. Long corporates now yield about 5.50%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the Seniority Spread) is now about 290bp, unchanged from June 30.

There’s some interesting speculation about credit spreads:

Executives who run big companies and big funds expect to be dealing with sovereign debt problems for years to come.

That’s one of the big conclusions from a survey of executives commissioned by Royal Bank of Canada’s capital markets unit.

Some of the most striking findings were a high degree of concern that a Group of Twenty country would default in the coming three years (Italy was voted most likely), skepticism that the euro-zone would survive that period intact, and a belief that high quality corporate bonds might be safer than some government bonds.

A full 40 per cent of respondents said that they expected yields on the highest level of corporate debt to drop below yields on sovereign debt of the countries where they are based, according to the poll of about 440 executives around the world.

Geez … you mean we have to re-write the textbooks again? We haven’t even finished rewriting the sections on monetary policy!

A good day in the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 32bp and FixedResets gaining 7bp, with good volume.