Category: Market Action

The overhang of Treasury’s Citigroup stake is causing problems:

The U.S. Treasury Department’s refusal to sell its 34 percent stake in Citigroup Inc. is hampering the bank’s plans to repay $20 billion of remaining bailout funds, people familiar with the bank said.

Executives at the New York-based bank are growing frustrated because they can’t sell stock to raise money for repayment until the Treasury signals when and how it will unload its 7.7 billion shares, said the people, declining to be identified because the matter is under discussion. Investors may be reluctant to buy shares because a Treasury sale could drive down the price.

On May 20 I mentioned the idea that what trading floors need is a little less testosterone and a little more femininity. In what is possibly the most amazing story ever published, Dealbreaker documents how this idea was taken seriously at SAC Capital … maybe a little too seriously. You’ll laugh! You’ll cry! You’ll send SAC a redemption order! At least it’s more interesting than “boo-hoo-hoo, my boss told a blonde joke“.

Geithner is in a slanging match with Goldman:

In the interview, the Treasury chief also disputed claims made by Goldman Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein that his firm would have survived last year’s financial crisis without assistance from the federal government.

“The entire U.S. financial system and all the major firms in the country, and even small banks across the country, were at that moment at the middle of a classic run, a classic bank run,” Geithner said.

Of the biggest banks, “none of them would have survived a situation in which we had let that fire try to burn itself out,” he added.

Assiduous Readers will note that the disputants are not talking about the same thing: Blankfein’s talking about the TARP capital injection to his particular firm; Geithner is talking about capital injections and liquidity provision in general.

A thoroughly boring day on the preferred share market, with low volume and no entries whatsoever on the performance highlights table. However, PerpetualDiscounts eked out a gain of 3bp while FixedResets were up 4bp.

Credit Default Swaps are having definitional problems in Japan:

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association is assessing whether Japan’s alternative dispute resolution process for companies restructuring their debt triggers a so-called credit event that would lead to payouts on swaps, according to Executive Vice-Chairman Robert Pickel.
…
After Aiful entered ADR talks in September, a committee of 15 dealers and investors that determines when the swaps are triggered rejected three attempts to get payouts from contracts on the Kyoto-based lender even as one bank said Aiful ceased making loan payments. Failure to reach prompt agreement may damage confidence in Japan’s market for the securities, J. Paul Forrester, a partner and co-head of the derivatives and structured products practice at Chicago-based law firm Mayer Brown LLP, said in an interview last month.

There’s some more grandstanding on the Tobin Tax:

Iowa Senator Tom Harkin and Oregon Representative Peter DeFazio, along with five other Democratic members of the House, proposed the measure, which they said would raise $150 billion a year, to fund a new jobs bill and help pay down budget deficits.

“Let me be blunt: We need new revenue,” Harkin said at a news conference today in Washington. He called it the “most painless way” to raise revenue.

The New York Fed has published an interesting review of the international market in FX Swaps by Niall Coffey, Warren B. Hrung, Hoai-Luu Nguyen and Asani Sarkar titled The Global Financial Crisis and Offshore Dollar Markets:

Facing a shortage of U.S. dollars and a growing need to support their dollar-denominated assets during the financial crisis, international firms increasingly turned to the foreign exchange swap market and other secured funding sources. An analysis of the ensuing strains in the swap market shows that the dollar “basis” — the premium international institutions pay for dollar funding — became persistently large and positive, chiefl y as a result of the higher funding costs paid by smaller firms and non-U.S. banks. The widening of the basis underscores the severity and breadth of the crisis as markets designed to facilitate the flow of dollars faltered and institutions worldwide struggled to obtain funds.

BofA raised a chunk-and-a-half of equity:

Bank of America Corp., which plans to repay $45 billion of U.S. government bailout money, raised $19.3 billion in a sale of securities at $15 apiece, a 4.8 percent discount to its common stock.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender sold 1.286 billion so-called common equivalent securities, according to Bloomberg data. The security, which is made up of one depositary share and one warrant, is convertible into one common share, subject to stockholder approval, a regulatory filing before the sale showed. Bank of America’s common stock rose 0.7 percent today to $15.76 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

A good day for preferred shares, as PerpetualDiscounts gained 12bp and FixedResets were up 6bp, as both volume and volatility returned to more normal levels.

Looks like the UK government is doing all it can to make the Royal Bank of Scotland a casualty in the holy war against bonuses:

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, recipient of the world’s biggest bank bailout, said the British government’s “very restrictive” control over 2009 bonuses risks driving employees away.
…
The RBS board has had legal advice that they would have to resign if the government blocked bonuses they regarded as essential for the bank’s competitiveness, according to Robert Peston, the British Broadcasting Corp.’s business editor.
…
“It’s a headhunters dream at the moment,” said Shaun Springer, chief executive officer of Square Mile Services Ltd., which advises London financial firms on pay. “They are going to lose people and then have to pay to replace them which is so very short sighted. RBS is getting hammered every which way.”

On a different regulatory topic, there are estimates that CDS regulation could cost JPM $3-billion in revenue:

Revenue at JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-largest U.S. bank, may drop by as much as $3 billion should most derivatives trades be moved to exchanges, a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst said.
…
JPMorgan “sees the largest risk from legislation mandating that all derivatives be traded on an exchange as opposed to through the OTC market, limiting the company’s ability to create customized products,” [Bernstein analyst John] McDonald wrote, referring to the over- the-counter market. He declined to comment beyond the note.

Parallels to TRACE and Corporate Bond Transparency are clear … it seems to me that the following scenario is most likely:

• Increased transparency brings lower spreads
• lower spreads bring lower profits
• lower profits bring lower capital allocation
• lower capital allocation brings lower liquidity

But who needs capital market liquidity in the middle of a holy war? The important things in life are:

• make it look like the politicians know what they’re doing
• ensure that moronic portfolio managers don’t suffer the consequences of their actions

Next crisis, coming right up! To make a decent return on capital, the dealers will have to find a new way to exploit the stupid (and whoever can figure out how to replace $3-billion in revenue will probably get a bonus – oh, the horror!).

OSFI has announced Stress Testing Guidelines.

A quiet day on the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts squeaking out a gain of less than 1bp and FixedResets gaining 7bp. Volume was pretty quiet and there are only two entries in the performance highlights table!

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.87%, equivalent to 8.22% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x. Long Corporates continue to yield about 5.9%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now n the 230-235bp range, a slight widening from the 225bp reported on November 30.

The market-timing fiasco (in which trades were executed at stale prices) is heating up again. As far as I am aware, there has been no admission of guilt by anybody; and nobody lost their license due to facilitation of the scheme; or was personally named.

A strong day, with PerpetualDiscounts up 13bp and FixedResets gaining 7bp, on relatively heavy volume.

CIT Group has slightly amended its bankruptcy terms.

Willem Buiter is frequently quoted on PrefBlog … and now he’s got a new job!:

Citigroup Inc. hired former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter as its chief economist to fill the position left vacant by Lewis Alexander’s move to the U.S. Treasury eight months ago.

The appointment by the bank, which is 34 percent owned by the U.S. government, puts an academic known for his outspokenness in its most senior economics position. In 2008, Buiter told the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the central bank pays too much heed to the concerns of Wall Street.

The Tobin Tax idea seems to be getting some press attention:

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Nov. 7 that a transaction tax might compensate for the billions of dollars that the public has spent on bank bailouts. Government officials in France, Germany and Austria have voiced their backing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner answered Brown a day later, saying the tax was not something the U.S. would support. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, on the other hand, says the idea has “substantial currency” among congressional Democrats.

As noted on November 11, Gordon Brown mentioned the idea, but not in a manner to indicate either support or opposition.

Canadian Bond Indices is now offering live quotes on selected bonds. The link has been added to the “Canadian Fixed Income Data” category on the right hand panel of PrefBlog.

The Canadian preferred share market closed the month on a high note, with PerpetualDiscounts up 9bp and FixedResets gaining 5bp, on moderate volume. PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.82%, equivalent to 8.15% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x. Long Corporates now yield about 5.9%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the Seniority Spread, around here, anyway) is now about 225bp, a 10bp tightening from the 235bp reported on November 25.

Credit Default Swaps are proving to be less predictable than hoped:

Thomson provided the first test of the procedures for settling contracts triggered by a restructuring in Europe when it said in August it was deferring payments on $72.5 million of 6.05 percent private notes due this year.

The system for restructurings uses multiple auctions that set different payouts based on swap expiration dates. Dealers couldn’t settle the Thomson contracts with simpler failure-to- pay procedures that produce one recovery value because they were unable to prove the electronics company defaulted.

Asked in a July conference call with investors whether Thomson still owed the money, Chief Executive Officer Frederic Rose responded, “Since I am not a qualified lawyer, I prefer not to answer that question.” Marine Boulot, a Thomson spokeswoman in Paris, declined to comment.

To determine the size of the payouts on contracts covering $2 billion in debt, bonds and loans were split by maturity date ranges into three so-called buckets and sold at auction.

Contracts that expired on June 20, 2012 — the first bucket’s latest date — sold for 96.25 percent of the face amount, meaning swap holders received 3.75 percent of the amount covered. Swaps expiring a day later paid 34.875 percent because the debt in that bucket went for 65.125 percent.

Holders of June 20 swaps covering 10 million euros in debt got 375,000 euros, while those with June 21 contracts received almost 3.5 million euros. Swaps that terminated after Oct. 24, 2014, paid the most, 36.75 percent.

The disparity was a result of too few securities in the first bucket to settle swaps, according to Matthew Leeming, a London-based strategist at Barclays. “An imbalance of supply and demand for the deliverables can affect the recovery rate,” he said in a note.

Because they were part of industry indexes, swaps referencing the company “dwarfed the amount of Thomson debt,” said Teo Lasarte, an analyst at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in London.

Canadian preferred shares had a good day, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 9bp and FixedResets up 7bp. Volume was moderate.

Apparently, having the world’s most intrusive bonus rules is a Good Thing:

U.K. banks face the toughest bonus regime in the world if proposals outlined in a government- commissioned report are accepted, according to its author, Morgan Stanley Senior Adviser David Walker.

Banks should delay bonus payments for as much as five years and have the power to “claw back” awards, Walker, 69, said in his final report on improvements to U.K. corporate governance released today. The government strongly supports Walker’s recommendations “and will take steps to implement them as soon as possible,” according to a statement from Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling.

Meanwhile, Andrew Willis of The Globe and Mail speculates that the nudge-and-wink Canadian version might lead to new independent dealers:

As this bonus season begins, there are enormous tensions within the ranks of the six largest and most profitable houses. The bank-owned firms had great years. Yet it’s not at all clear the wealth will be shared with employees the way it was in the past. Bonus cheques may be trimmed, even chopped.

Bank executives, and the folks in HR departments, are taking a New England Patriots approach to talent: They are concluding it’s the franchise, the massive machine, that earns the profits, not any one individual. This attitude does not sit well with the more self-assured of bankers and traders.

To a large extent this is true; investment banking is simply the latest area of investment activities to get hit. The banks can, if they wish, create good products run by superb staff, but it doesn’t matter. Since moving into brokerage and wealth management, they have found that they can make just as much money with barely acceptable products run by high school students, such is their franchise.

I’m not sure where this will end – and it might not end. An internal contradiction can last a long time and either degrade slowly or spectacularly. It’s interesting to speculate just what might trigger a spectacular paradigm shift, but I haven’t got any answers for that one. Bre-X didn’t do it. Nortel didn’t do it. And small shops sell out to big shops when the proprietors retire, which takes care of the slow pathway.

Ultimately, a reversal of the process will occur only when performance actually becomes a selling feature – which isn’t going to happen any time soon. Avner Mandelman had a good piece in Saturday’s Globe regarding what is actually being sold. One thing that would be good would be increased regulatory emphasis on performance: investment managers are required to state their experience in prospectuses, but not performance. Many trading rules in UMIR are designed to protect morons – simply rescinding those would be a great leap forward. But guess which segment of the industry has captured the regulators – nothing will happen.

Some might argue that the consequences of an incompetent culture have already been felt, in the shape of the Credit Crunch. Maybe. It is very hard to read the SEC Inspector-General’s report on Bear Stearns and not get the feeling that the smiley-boys had taken over management completely and that they deserved to fail.

Not much action in the preferred share market on American Thanksgiving, but up-days are always welcome! PerpetualDiscounts gained 4bp and FixedResets were up 6bp.

Connecticut is claiming that its pension fund portfolio managers are a pack of incompetent time-servers:

Connecticut plans to join Ohio in suing Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Corp. and Fitch Ratings for their “negligent, reckless and incompetent work” in grading investments made by state pension funds, according to Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.

Connecticut and “a number of other states” are preparing legal action against the credit-rating companies, Blumenthal said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray sued the debt raters this month on behalf of five Ohio public employee retirement and pension funds, saying “improper” ratings cost the funds more than $457 million.

Geez, you know, sometimes I think I’d like to be a portfolio manager at a big firm. Nothing to do all day but suck arse and pass the blame …

The PerpetualDiscount winning streak came to an end today, albeit just barely. Its last down day was October 28, as it then rose for nineteen consecutive days, gaining 2.99% as yields fell from 6.05% to 5.88% (quick check: 299bp total return with 6.05% yield for 27 days including weekends implies price change of 299-45 = 254bp, on 17bp yield change, implies Modified Duration of 14.94 years, which in turn implies a yield of 6.69%. Well … close enough. I’m ignoring convexity and discussing an index, after all).

Anyway, PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.90%, equivalent to 8.26% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x. Long Corporates now yield about 5.9%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the seniority spread, around here, anyway) is now about 235bp, a modest but welcome tightening from the 240bp reported on November 19.

A good solid day for preferred shares with both PerpetualDiscounts and FixedResets gaining 10bp on moderate volume.

Themis Trading has published another “mini white paper” by Sal L. Arnuk and Joseph Saluzzi, Why Institutional Investors Should Be Concerned About High Frequency Traders. Their second so-called “problem” is actually a highly desirable feature:

2. HFT volume can generate false trading signals.

This can cause other investors to buy at a higher price, or sell at a lower price, than they would otherwise. A spike in HFT volume can cause an institutional algorithm order based on a percentage of volume to be too aggressive. A spike can attract momentum investors, further exaggerating price moves. Seeing such a spike, options traders can start to build positions, which, in turn, can attract risk arbitrage traders who believe there’s potential news that could affect the stock.

As a fundamental, value based investor, I say “Super!”. The more that securities are moved off their fundamental value, the more opportunities I will have to take advantage of the difference and make some money for my clients.

From a policy perspective, the underperformance of morons – who pretend sophisitication due to their use of algorithms, a four-syllable word, or who are attracted by momentum, or who care to bet that there’s news coming, implicitly accepting and trading on the efforts of insider traders – will assist their exit from the workforce. Which is a Good Thing, to the extent that underperformance has an actual effect on employment prospects.

Today’s 2-Year Treasury auction set two records:

Treasuries remained lower after the government sold a record-tying $44 billion of two-year debt at the lowest yield ever, the first of three note sales this week totaling a record $118 billion.

The securities drew a yield of 0.802 percent, compared to the forecast of 0.786 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of eight of the Federal Reserve’s 18 primary dealers and below the 0.922 percent drawn at an auction in December. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 3.16, compared to 3.63 at the previous auction. The average at the last 10 auctions was 2.92.

HSBC Canada is calling some sub-debt:

HSBC Bank Canada today announced its intention to redeem all $100,000,000 of its 4.39% subordinated debentures due 21 January 2015 (the “Debentures”). In accordance with their terms, the Debentures will be redeemed at 100% of their principal amount plus accrued interest to the redemption date. The redemption will occur on 21 January 2010 and will be financed out of the general corporate funds of HSBC Bank Canada.

These debs are described as:

The interest rate is fixed at 4.39 per cent until January 2010 and thereafter the rate reprices at the 90 day average bankers’ acceptance
rate plus 1.00 per cent.

The market edged up a little today – PerpetualDiscounts up 9bp and FixedResets down 2bp – on slighly lower volume.

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