Category: Data Changes

Data Changes

5Banc Split New Issue

The 5Banc Split Inc. new issue has been added to the HIMIPref™ database.

The anticipated closing date is 2006-12-15; it pays 4.75% as a cumulative dividend; it’s provisionally rated Pfd-2 by DBRS; and it’s a split share backed by … (wait for it) … five banks! BMO, BNS, CM, RY & TD are the portfolio shares.

I had a hard time deciding whether or not to include this issue in the database. It’s redeemable annually at the $10 issue price and I don’t like that. It means, for one thing, that the YTW will almost always be based on a call at the next annual date (assuming it trades at a premium, which, with a 4.75% dividend, seems likely for the forseeable future). I like the system whereby a declining schedule is put in place … like, f’rinstance, BSD.PR.A has. I’d be prepared to give up a little coupon for such a feature (how much? Consultancy can be easily arranged at a moderate fee).

In the end, I decided – sure, let’s include it. After all, it’s just replacing the FBS.PR.A and given that I expect a lot of redemptions over the next few years, I’d like to ensure I have a lot of issues with some history at all times, just to maintain continuity of the calculations.

The annual no-fee no-pain redemption feature for the capital units just creates a lot of churn (which may be the point, given that the selling commission is 3% on the prefs, 6% on the capital units.). This is a refinancing for 5Banc, with the old capital units eligible for tax-free conversion into the new capital units; the historical units outstanding have been:

5Banc Split Inc. Unit Activity
Date Units
2001-12-28 (Issue) +3,250,000
2002 -168,855
2003 -1,408,167
2004 -605,827
2005 -254,044
For Redemption 2006-12-15 813,107

The dividend is certainly attractive and the issue should go to a premium immediately after issue – and the underwriters are selling the prefs separately. The upside is limited by the very onerous redemption schedule, though, and I calculate a curvePrice of $10.26 (excluding liquidity considerations). One thing to remember about this kind of issue is that redemption will be driven by Capital Unitholders trying to cash in on the Next Big Thing – it will not necessarily have anything to do with prevailing interest rates. You could get redeemed (and receive the $10 par value) if rates are at 10% and the prefs are trading at $7.50. I can’t model that possibility though, and I wouldn’t count on it!

The preIssue securityCode for this issue is P50008.

Data Changes

BAM.PR.M Disappoints on Opening

The Brookfield new issue closed today and dropped to a closing quotation of $24.59-60 on heavy volume of 395,480 shares.

At this price I like it more than BAM.PR.J – but not by enough (quite!) to perform the swap.

The issue has been added to the HIMIPref™ database with the securityCode A41222, as a reorg out of the pre-issue code, P25003.

It has been added to the PerpetualDiscount Index as of 2006-11-20

Data Changes

A Subdued Opening for CM.PR.I

CM.PR.I, the new issue discussed November 6, commenced trading today and closed at $24.91-92 on volume of 288,892 shares, having traded in the range 24.89-99 throughout the day.

It is a little difficult to understand why the issue did not rise on the first day, as it appears to be attractive by a wide variety of measures, but such is life in the preferred market! Nothing ever works exactly as expected!

In the earlier post, I compared the issue to the roughly comparable CM.PR.H, so I’ll update that comparison now and we’ll see what we see!

  CM.PR.H CM.PR.I
Changes from the November 6 calculation in brackets
Base Rate 24.05 (+0.03) 23.78 (-0.05)
Price due to short-term 0.08 (-0.01) 0.09 (-0.01)
Price due to long-term 0.59 (+0.07) 0.57 (+0.09)
Price due to error 0.02 (Unch) 0.02 (+0.01)
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) -0.54 (Unch) -0.53 (-0.04)
Intrinsic (subject to rounding error) 24.20 (+0.09) 23.93 (Unch)
Price due to Liquidity 1.60 (+0.02) 1.56 (-0.02)
Total (subject to rounding error) $25.79 (+0.10) $25.49 (-0.02)

The CM.PR.H closed at 25.38-50, 10×73, today, so the CM.PR.I has some company in looking cheap!

As one can see, the curve moved against the new issue in the week or so since the last analysis and now “likes” the slightly greater dividend (and hence chance of call) of the CM.PR.H more than it did.

To look at this more closely, we can examine the output from the optionCashFlowEffectAnalysisBox, which I’ll blog about at some future date.

CM.PR.I has been added to the HIMIPref™ database with the securityCode A42018, replacing the “PreIssue” code of P50007.

Data Changes

HIMIPref™ Data Changes : FAL.PR.F, FAL.PR.G, BMO.PR.I

As noted in an earlier post, Falconbridge’s new owners redeemed the issues FAL.PR.F (securityCode A36042) and FAL.PR.G (security code A36043). These entries have now been processed to the HIMIPref™ database, delistingDate 2006-11-02.

A rounding error was discovered in the instrumentDataRecord for BMO.PR.I, which has been recently discussed. The dividendRate had been recorded as $1.188 and has now been corrected to $1.1875.

Data Changes

New Issue : CIBC 4.7% Perp

Well, it didn’t take long for CIBC to replace the capital lost via the redemption of CM.PR.B! They announced a new issue (with a headline announcing a redemption!) that will close on November 15.

 Terms of the issue (Class A Series 31) are:

Dividend: Non-cumulative, 4.7% on $25.00 p.v. is $1.1750

Callable:

  • $26.00, 2012-1-31 – 2013-1-30
  • $25.75, 2013-1-31 – 2014-1-30
  • $25.50, 2014-1-31 – 2015-1-30
  • $25.25, 2015-1-31 – 2016-1-30
  • $25.00, 2016-1-31 +

DBRS: Pfd-1 (low)

S&P: P-1 (low)

There will be 16-million shares outstanding; underwriters have a greenshoe option for an additional 2-million shares. It’s a bought deal.

The terms of this issue make it a reasonably close match to CM.PR.H, issued 2005-3-10, paying $1.20, call schedule commencing 2001-3-30, closing 2006-11-3 at $25.80-89

  CM.PR.H New Issue
Base Rate 24.02 23.83
Price due to short-term 0.09 0.10
Price due to long-term 0.52 0.48
Price due to error 0.02 0.01
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) -0.54 -0.49
Intrinsic 24.11 23.93
Price due to Liquidity 1.58 1.58?
Total $25.69 $25.51?

Basically, the thing looks pretty good … priced to move! I’ll also note that it yields 10bp more (at issue) than the recently issued RY.PR.C, in terms of PRE-TAX DIVIDENDS, which is about right considering that the credit spread for “Low” is 11bp AFTER TAX.

This issue has been entered into HIMIPref™ with the temporary security code P50007.

Data Changes

RY.PR.C Off to a Fine Start!

The new Royal Bank 4.6% perpetuals were off to a good start today, trading 239,875 shares in a range of 25.15-25 to close at $25.16-18, 3×13.

The reorg entry has been processed on HIMIPref™: the pre-issue code was P50006, the new security code is A45012.

I’ll update this post with some comments about valuation when I update HIMIPref™ with today’s closing quotations later tonight.

Update : The issue still looks attractive at the closing quotation. Consider the YTWs of the other Royal Perpetual issues that are outstanding (except for the soon to be redeemed RY.PR.O:

Issue Pre-tax YTW Quote “Taxable Curve” Price
RY.PR.A 4.47% 24.84-91 24.97
RY.PR.B 4.30% 25.70-75 25.83
RY.PR.C 4.54% 25.16-18 25.59
RY.PR.W 4.07% 26.27-55 25.89

So, it’s my guess there’s still a little value left in this issue!

Data Changes

DBRS Upgrades Canadian Utilities!

DBRS announced today that they are upgrading the Canadian Utilities Limited preferred shares Series O, T, W & X from Pfd-2 to Pfd-2(high), where they will now match the series Q, R, S, U & V.

HIMIPref™ tracks four of these issues:

CU Issues & HIMIPref™
Series Symbol Status
Q CU.PR.T Unchanged
R CU.PR.V Unchanged
W CU.PR.A Upgraded
X CU.PR.B Upgraded

I do not anticipate much excitement to result from this upgrade. The two issues affected are high-dividend perpetuals with a short period until their YTW call. Due to the shortness of their expected term, NONE of the CU issues are eligible for purchase recommendations from HIMIPref™.

And anyway, as far as I can tell, the market isn’t putting much of a premium on “High” modifiers anyway!

The HIMIPref™ credit rating adjustment will take effect commencing October 31.