Market Action

September 9, 2016

Common equity took a hit today:

After two months in which even a 50-point move in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was reason for excitement, investors were shaken out of their slumber as central bankers signaled reluctance to extend stimulus and sent U.S. stocks to their worst week since February.

Damage was worst in the final session, when Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren warned against waiting too long to raise interest rates. Selling built after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi downplayed the need for more measures to boost growth a day earlier. When it was over, the S&P 500 Index was down 2.3 percent to 2,127.81 on the week, with Friday’s plunge wiping out a slight gain over the first three days.

Bonds did not escape the carnage:

Draghi’s reticence accelerated a selloff in bonds that extended from Europe to the U.S. and Japan, with longer-dated securities, which have been outperforming in recent months, being the hardest hit. While yields are still low compared with historical averages, they are quickly rising from records reached earlier this year, recalling the bond rout of 2015, which saw German 10-year yields climb more than a percentage point in less than two months.

The yield on German 30-year bonds climbed 10 basis points to 0.60 percent, adding to a nine-basis-point jump the previous day. The rate on similar-maturity U.S. securities rose seven basis points to 2.38 percent.

Chances of the Fed raising rates at the September meeting climbed to 38 percent, up 16 percentage points from Wednesday, according to fed funds futures.

The U.K. and Japan, two markets which have help drive the global bond rally this year, also saw losses. The yield on 10-year gilts rose to a one-month high of 0.84 percent and the Japanese 10-year yield, which has been below zero since March, climbed to minus 0.02 percent.

Quantitative Investing is now a strategy that over-promises:

Banks and investment funds are hiring quants — people with training in physics or higher mathematics — as market intervention by central banks make it difficult to post robust profits. Money managers including UBS, Credit Suisse Group AG and GAM Holding AG are betting that the strategies widely used by the hedge-fund industry will help convince clients spooked by market volatility to invest their money instead of keeping it in cash.

The bank decided to diversify and increase the number of offerings to clients because of low interest rates, Haefele said. As part of the strategy, it raised $471 million for an oncology fund earlier this year and hired a team led by Vinay Pande from hedge fund Brevan Howard Asset Management to focus on short-term investment strategies earlier this year.

UBS manages more than $1.5 billion through quant analysis, Andreas Kessler, a spokesman for the bank, said in an e-mail. The wealth management unit started its first directly quant-based offering last year, he said.

Clients who hand over investment decisions to Haefele and his team have on average earned more on their portfolio than those who make decisions themselves, he said. That’s because they may find themselves exposed to a market downturn and fail to reinvest when things improve, he said. The bank does not disclose client returns.

Investment returns are a chaotic system; you cannot predict future absolute returns. Relative returns can be predicted a little bit, provided the two comparators are closely related. But, since UBS does not disclose client returns they’ll be able to get away with any claims they want for a long time.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2867 % 1,674.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2867 % 3,058.1
Floater 4.91 % 4.70 % 88,118 15.95 4 -0.2867 % 1,762.4
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1030 % 2,883.6
SplitShare 5.05 % 4.54 % 78,770 2.21 5 -0.1030 % 3,443.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1030 % 2,686.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.50 % 4.61 % 71,195 1.99 12 -0.0586 % 2,675.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.12 % 5.14 % 99,985 14.96 26 -0.0284 % 2,906.6
FixedReset 4.99 % 4.44 % 148,604 6.98 90 -0.2215 % 2,033.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 4.80 % 116,630 3.24 32 -0.1166 % 2,804.0
FloatingReset 2.82 % 3.96 % 27,763 5.03 12 -0.2135 % 2,204.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -2.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.60
Bid-YTW : 11.19 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-09
Maturity Price : 13.15
Evaluated at bid price : 13.15
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-09
Maturity Price : 19.87
Evaluated at bid price : 19.87
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.70
Bid-YTW : 9.40 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.98
Bid-YTW : 7.92 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.49
Bid-YTW : 10.59 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.47
Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-09
Maturity Price : 17.79
Evaluated at bid price : 17.79
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.38
Bid-YTW : 9.84 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.H FixedReset 662,052 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.44
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 153,178 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset 105,525 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 91,616 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.28
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
W.PR.K FixedReset 89,924 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.57
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 67,445 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-09
Maturity Price : 18.58
Evaluated at bid price : 18.58
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
There were 21 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PF.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 25.34 – 25.78
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2778

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.34
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.16 – 26.52
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2511

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-10-09
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.16
Bid-YTW : -16.80 %

HSE.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 19.26 – 19.65
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2837

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-09
Maturity Price : 19.26
Evaluated at bid price : 19.26
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %

PWF.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 19.80 – 20.16
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2689

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-09
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %

RY.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 26.41 – 26.63
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1294

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %

HSE.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 20.90 – 21.20
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2104

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-09
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %

Issue Comments

TD.PF.H Soars To Premium On Huge Volume

TD.PF.H is a FixedReset, 4.85%+412, NVCC, announced 2016-8-29. It is a monster issue, the largest in the market, with 40-million shares (=$1-billion p.v.) outstanding.

The issue settled today and traded a whopping 2,936,651 shares in a range of 25.33-50 prior to closing at 25.43-46, 75×19. This is the ninth highest number of shares traded on a single day in my entire database (which contains just over a million records going back to 1993) and the highest since MFC.PR.A traded nearly 3.6-million shares on 2004-2-13.

TD.PF.H will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the FixedReset subindex. Vital statistics are:

TD.PF.H FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.43
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %

Implied Volatility analysis shows it to be slightly expensive to its peers at current levels:

impVol_TD_160908
Click for Big

As a matter of interest, TD has just issued sub-debt in the US market:

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (“TD” or the “Bank”) today announced a U.S. offering of US$1.5 billion of 3.625% Non-Viability Contingent Capital Subordinated Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”), which will constitute subordinated indebtedness of the Bank. The Notes are registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Notes will qualify as Tier 2 capital of the Bank.

The Notes are expected to be issued on September 15, 2016 and will bear interest at a fixed rate of 3.625% per annum (paid semi-annually) to, but excluding, September 15, 2026, and at the 5-Year Mid-Swap Rate plus 2.205% thereafter (paid semi-annually) to, but excluding, September 15, 2031.

The Bank may, at its option, with the prior approval of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (Canada), redeem the Notes on September 15, 2026, in whole at par plus accrued and unpaid interest on not more than 60 nor less than 30 days’ notice to holders. Net proceeds from the issuance of the Notes will be used for general corporate purposes.

Market Action

September 8, 2016

There is great news from the world of drones:

In what’s sure to be a college student’s dream come true, drones will soon be delivering burritos on the campus of Virginia Tech.

The experimental service, to begin this month and last just a few weeks, is a test by Project Wing, a unit of Google’s parent company Alphabet Inc. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and the Blacksburg, Virginia, university have agreed to participate.

Project Wing will use self-guided hybrids that can fly like a plane or hover like a helicopter. They will make deliveries from a Chipotle food truck to assess the accuracy of navigation systems and how people respond.

The devices will hover overhead and lower the Chipotle edibles with a winch.

Part of the experiment will be to see how well the packaging protects the chow and keeps it warm. Food was selected as the demonstration cargo because it’s a challenge. The company is already at work on a more sophisticated second version of the aircraft that won’t be used in the tests, Vos said.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0179 % 1,678.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0179 % 3,066.9
Floater 4.89 % 4.67 % 89,168 16.00 4 -0.0179 % 1,767.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0554 % 2,886.5
SplitShare 5.04 % 4.38 % 81,897 2.21 5 -0.0554 % 3,447.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0554 % 2,689.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.50 % 3.65 % 72,300 0.14 12 0.1695 % 2,676.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.12 % 5.14 % 101,211 14.97 26 0.0632 % 2,907.4
FixedReset 4.98 % 4.38 % 149,737 6.99 90 0.5449 % 2,038.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 4.77 % 117,843 3.24 32 0.3256 % 2,807.3
FloatingReset 2.84 % 3.95 % 28,702 5.03 12 0.1702 % 2,209.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 12.02
Evaluated at bid price : 12.02
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 15.60
Evaluated at bid price : 15.60
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 19.19
Evaluated at bid price : 19.19
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.91
Bid-YTW : 10.87 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.07
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 18.12
Evaluated at bid price : 18.12
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 6.20 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.92
Bid-YTW : 6.88 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 2.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.29
Bid-YTW : 8.34 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 2.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.25
Bid-YTW : 9.70 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 2.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.18
Bid-YTW : 7.73 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 2.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 19.39
Evaluated at bid price : 19.39
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 7.43 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 2.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 2.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 13.60
Evaluated at bid price : 13.60
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 2.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.66
Bid-YTW : 7.50 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 2.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 7.49 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.H FixedReset 2,936,651 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.43
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 107,837 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 19.79
Evaluated at bid price : 19.79
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 60,364 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 24.29
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Premium 59,533 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.64
Bid-YTW : -16.35 %
NA.PR.A FixedReset 54,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.30
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 53,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 24.68
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
There were 51 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 18.75 – 19.23
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.2947

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 7.49 %

RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.20 – 25.60
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2379

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : -3.03 %

POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.82 – 26.30
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3322

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.82
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %

CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.27 – 24.79
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3725

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.27
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %

RY.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 18.70 – 19.04
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2162

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 18.70
Evaluated at bid price : 18.70
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %

FTS.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 13.60 – 13.90
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2035

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-08
Maturity Price : 13.60
Evaluated at bid price : 13.60
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %

Issue Comments

DBRS Confirms ENB & W

Well, that didn’t take long! On September 6 I reported ENB Acquiring Spectra: Ratings Effect Unclear, with DBRS placing ENB and W on Review-Developing.

Today, DBRS announced that it:

maintained the following ratings of Enbridge Inc. (ENB) Under Review with Developing Implications, where they were placed on September 6, 2016:

— ENB, Issuer Rating of BBB (high)
— ENB, Medium-Term Notes & Unsecured Debentures rated BBB (high)
— ENB, Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares rated Pfd-3 (high)
— ENB, Commercial Paper rated R-2 (high)

DBRS had the opportunity to meet with the senior management teams of both companies prior to the Transaction being announced to discuss details of the merger. DBRS was also provided with considerable documentation relating to the Transaction. After a review of the information provided and the September 6, 2016 announcement, followed by the conference call hosted by both companies, DBRS has determined that closing of the Transaction, as announced, will not impact the credit quality of ENB’s DBRS-rated subsidiaries (EIF, EPI, EGD and EEP) and has therefore confirmed these ratings.

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON ENB
DBRS believes that the Transaction, as proposed, before considering the potential sale of non-core assets, will be neutral for ENB’s overall business risk profile.

With respect to the financial risk profile, ENB stated that it expects to fund future growth in a manner that is consistent with maintaining a strong investment-grade credit profile with key target metrics of 15% funds from operations (FFO) to debt and five times debt-to-EBITDA, which DBRS views as falling well within the financial parameters of the existing rating and likely to be achieved in late 2018 or early 2019.

Consequently, DBRS expects to confirm all of ENB’s ratings with Stable trends in the event that the Transaction closes as contemplated. This expectation is based on a number of key DBRS assumptions, including no new material debt at the ENB level (aside from potential migration of Spectra Capital’s long-term debt to ENB over time) as a result of the Transaction, migration of the combined entity’s common dividend payout ratio towards the low end of the 50% to 60% range over the medium term, achievement of the contemplated improvement in credit metrics over the current planning period and no increase in structural subordination at the ENB level from currently contemplated levels. Changes to any of these, and other, key assumptions would cause DBRS to revisit the current ratings.

In addition:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed the ratings of Spectra Energy Capital, LLC (Spectra or the Company), Westcoast Energy Inc. (Westcoast), Union Gas Limited (Union Gas), Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline Limited Partnership (M&NP) and Express Pipeline Limited Partnership & Express Pipeline LLC (Express) with Stable trends. This rating action removes the ratings from Under Review with Developing Implications under which they were placed on September 6, 2016, as follows:

— Westcoast, First Preferred Shares – cumulative, redeemable rated Pfd-2 (low)

DBRS has determined that the Transaction will not impact the credit quality of Spectra and its DBRS-rated subsidiaries (Westcoast, Union Gas, M&NP and Express). DBRS notes that there are no changes contemplated to Spectra, its subsidiaries and counterparties, as a result of the Transaction. As announced, the financing for the Transaction is expected to be at the Enbridge Inc. level with no incremental borrowing at the Spectra entities. As a result, DBRS views the overall impact of the Transaction, as announced, on the stand-alone credit profiles of Spectra and its DBRS-rated subsidiaries as neutral and has therefore confirmed the ratings.

Affected issues are:

ENB.PF.A, ENB.PF.C, ENB.PF.E, ENB.PF.G, ENB.PR.A, ENB.PR.B, ENB.PR.D, ENB.PR.F, ENB.PR.H, ENB.PR.J, ENB.PR.N, ENB.PR.P, ENB.PR.T, ENB.PR.Y

W.PR.H, W.PR.J, W.PR.K

New Issues

New Issue: BNS FixedReset, 4.85%+419, NVCC

The Bank of Nova Scotia has announced:

a domestic public offering of Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 38 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 38”).

Scotiabank has agreed to sell 12 million of Preferred Shares Series 38 to a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotia Capital Inc. on a bought deal basis. Scotiabank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part up to 48 hours before closing, to purchase up to an additional 2 million Preferred Shares Series 38 at the same offering price.

Scotiabank will issue Preferred Shares Series 38 priced at $25 per share and holders will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly fixed dividend, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank, for the initial period ending on and including January 26, 2022 at an annual rate of $1.2125 per share to yield 4.85% per cent annually.

On January 27, 2022 and on January 27 every five years thereafter, Scotiabank may, at its option, with the prior approval of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (Canada), redeem all or any number of the then outstanding Preferred Shares Series 38 at a redemption price which is equal to par. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a rate equal to 4.19% over the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Holders of Preferred Shares Series 38 will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Non-cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 39 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 39”) of Scotiabank on January 27, 2022 and on January 27 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Preferred Shares Series 39 will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 4.19%, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank. Holders of Preferred Shares Series 39 will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Preferred Shares Series 38 on January 27, 2027 and on January 27 every five years thereafter.

Closing is expected to occur on or after September 16, 2016. This domestic public offering is part of Scotiabank’s ongoing and proactive management of its Tier 1 capital structure.

Net proceeds from this transaction will be added to Scotiabank’s funds and will be used for general business purposes.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 38 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 38”), the size of the offering has been increased to 20 million shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $500 million. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate of investment dealers led by Scotia Capital Inc.

Closing is expected to occur on or after September 16, 2016. This domestic public offering is part of Scotiabank’s ongoing and proactive management of its Tier 1 capital structure. Scotiabank intends to file a prospectus supplement to its July 7, 2016 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

Net proceeds from this transaction will be added to Scotiabank’s funds and will be used for general business purposes.

This is Scotia’s third NVCC-compliant issue, so we can attempt some very cautious Implied Volatility Analysis:

impVol_BNS_160907
Click for Big

On the one hand, it appears to be fairly priced against the two other NVCC issues, with an Implied Volatility of 9%. However, most other series have Implied Volatility in excess of 20% and therefore show steeper curves when analyzed in this fashion, which suggests either than the new issue is cheap, or the other two issues (BNS.PR.E and BNS.PR.G) are rich. Take your pick! However, the NVCC non-compliant issues are very clearly differentiated from the compliant issues, so that’s something!

Market Action

September 7, 2016

Negative interest rates have a silver lining for some firms!

It’s a sign the world is getting used to negative interest rates when what once seemed bizarre starts looking like the norm.

Consider Switzerland, where more and more companies are taking out insurance policies to protect their cash hoards from theft or damage.

“Because of the low interest rate level, we note increasing demand for insurance solutions for the storage of cash,” said Philipp Surholt at Zurich Insurance Group AG, among underwriters reporting a surge in such requests. “We’re seeing demand for coverage for sums ranging from 100 million to 500 million francs.”

Helvetia Holding AG said it charges about 1,000 francs ($1,020) a year to insure 1 million francs, a fraction of the 7,500 francs a company would pay to park the same amount in a bank for a year — assuming the lender passes on the full charge. But that amount doesn’t include the cost of logistics such as transport or security features like reinforced walls, guards and alarm systems.

Companies need to save a lot on bank fees for cash storage to be economical because, in addition to insurance, they have to assume the costs of managing the money, said Roberto Brunazzi, a spokesman for Baloise Holding AG. He said the company has long offered such coverage “but there has been a noticeable increase and now it’s becoming more commonplace.”

Switzerland’s continued use of high-denomination banknotes adds to the appeal of self-storage: About 1 million francs worth of 1,000-franc bills can fit in a small box.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.12%, equivalent to 6.66% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates yield a hair over 3.60%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 305bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) widening from the 300bp reported August 31.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5168 % 1,679.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5168 % 3,067.5
Floater 4.89 % 4.67 % 82,578 16.00 4 -0.5168 % 1,767.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0634 % 2,888.1
SplitShare 5.04 % 4.38 % 85,148 2.21 5 0.0634 % 3,449.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0634 % 2,691.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.51 % 4.62 % 73,198 2.00 12 -0.0782 % 2,672.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.12 % 5.13 % 102,217 15.04 26 -0.0821 % 2,905.6
FixedReset 5.01 % 4.36 % 142,865 7.06 89 -0.8808 % 2,027.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.02 % 4.79 % 117,822 3.24 32 -0.0928 % 2,798.2
FloatingReset 2.85 % 3.97 % 29,679 5.03 12 -0.1960 % 2,205.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -3.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 13.24
Evaluated at bid price : 13.24
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset -2.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 20.31
Evaluated at bid price : 20.31
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 19.88
Evaluated at bid price : 19.88
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset -2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 15.43
Evaluated at bid price : 15.43
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.94
Evaluated at bid price : 18.94
Bid-YTW : 5.03 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 19.45
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.79
Bid-YTW : 9.26 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset -1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 7.78 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 15.40
Evaluated at bid price : 15.40
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.83
Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.38
Evaluated at bid price : 18.38
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 17.86
Evaluated at bid price : 17.86
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 20.81
Evaluated at bid price : 20.81
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset -1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 17.87
Evaluated at bid price : 17.87
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.98
Bid-YTW : 8.12 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset -1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.98
Evaluated at bid price : 18.98
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset -1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.35
Evaluated at bid price : 18.35
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.69
Evaluated at bid price : 18.69
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 23.61
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.76
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 20.33
Evaluated at bid price : 20.33
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.53
Evaluated at bid price : 18.53
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 11.90
Evaluated at bid price : 11.90
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 11.90
Evaluated at bid price : 11.90
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.34
Evaluated at bid price : 18.34
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 17.85
Evaluated at bid price : 17.85
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 10.40
Evaluated at bid price : 10.40
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.21
Bid-YTW : 7.92 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.64
Evaluated at bid price : 18.64
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 19.53
Evaluated at bid price : 19.53
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 13.56
Evaluated at bid price : 13.56
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 13.60
Evaluated at bid price : 13.60
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 20.62
Evaluated at bid price : 20.62
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.92
Bid-YTW : 8.66 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.91
Bid-YTW : 8.21 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 19.90
Evaluated at bid price : 19.90
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.14
Bid-YTW : 7.92 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.68
Evaluated at bid price : 18.68
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BIP.PR.C FixedReset 288,259 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 48,589 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 17.85
Evaluated at bid price : 17.85
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 40,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 7.07 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 38,625 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 15.40
Evaluated at bid price : 15.40
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset 38,575 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 19.53
Evaluated at bid price : 19.53
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 36,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.13
Bid-YTW : 10.03 %
There were 57 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 19.83 – 20.25
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2702

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.83
Bid-YTW : 6.43 %

CU.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 25.60 – 26.08
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3393

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 18.50 – 18.80
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1954

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-07
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %

BNS.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 20.43 – 20.66
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1417

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.43
Bid-YTW : 5.82 %

PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.44 – 25.64
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1267

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.44
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %

TRP.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 26.16 – 26.39
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1602

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.16
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %

Issue Comments

DGS.PR.A To Get Bigger

Brompton Group has announced:

Dividend Growth Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it is undertaking a treasury offering of class A and preferred shares. The final class A and preferred share offering prices will be determined so as to be non-dilutive to the net asset value per unit of the Company as of the pricing date, as adjusted for dividends and certain expenses to be accrued prior to or upon settlement of the offering.
The Company invests in a portfolio of common shares of high quality, large capitalization companies, which have among the highest dividend growth rates of those companies included in the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Currently, the portfolio consists of common shares of the following 20 companies:

Great-West Lifeco Inc. The Bank of Nova Scotia CI Financial Corp.
Shaw Communications Inc. Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
IGM Financial Inc. TELUS Corporation Manulife Financial Corporation
National Bank of Canada Power Corporation of Canada Canadian Utilities Limited
Sun Life Financial Inc. Royal Bank of Canada BCE Inc.
Enbridge Inc. Bank of Montreal The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Rogers Communications Inc. TransCanada Corporation

The investment objectives for the class A shares are to provide holders with regular monthly cash distributions targeted to be $0.10 per class A share and to provide the opportunity for growth in the net asset value per class A share.
The investment objectives for the preferred shares are to provide holders with fixed cumulative preferential quarterly cash distributions, currently in the amount of $0.13125 per preferred share, representing a yield on the original issue price of 5.25% per annum, and to return the original issue price to holders of preferred shares on the Company’s maturity date (November 28, 2019).

The syndicate of agents for the offering is being led by RBC Capital Markets, CIBC and Scotiabank and includes TD Securities Inc. BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Desjardins Securities Inc., Raymond James Ltd., Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., Haywood Securities Inc., Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. and Mackie Research Capital Corporation.

Update, 2016-9-10: Priced and sized:

Dividend Growth Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that the Company’s treasury offering of class A and preferred shares has been priced at $6.75 per class A share and $10.25 per preferred share. The final class A and preferred share offering prices were determined so as to be non-dilutive to the most recently calculated net asset value per unit of the Company, as adjusted for dividends and certain expenses to be accrued prior to or upon settlement of the offering, and voluntary payment of certain costs of the offering by the Manager. Gross proceeds of the offering are expected to be approximately $25 million.

Market Action

September 6, 2016

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3039 % 1,687.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3039 % 3,083.4
Floater 4.87 % 4.64 % 85,976 16.07 4 0.3039 % 1,777.0
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1667 % 2,886.3
SplitShare 5.04 % 4.63 % 88,424 2.21 5 0.1667 % 3,446.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1667 % 2,689.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.50 % 4.04 % 74,063 0.15 12 -0.2307 % 2,674.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.11 % 5.11 % 99,865 14.99 26 0.1043 % 2,907.9
FixedReset 4.97 % 4.28 % 140,930 7.08 89 -0.5311 % 2,045.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.02 % 4.70 % 116,445 3.25 32 -0.0483 % 2,800.8
FloatingReset 2.84 % 3.97 % 30,034 5.04 12 -0.4120 % 2,210.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -3.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.75
Bid-YTW : 11.04 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.23
Evaluated at bid price : 18.23
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.60
Bid-YTW : 10.44 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.77
Evaluated at bid price : 18.77
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 13.22
Evaluated at bid price : 13.22
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset -1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.56
Evaluated at bid price : 18.56
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 19.34
Evaluated at bid price : 19.34
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 20.32
Evaluated at bid price : 20.32
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 15.68
Evaluated at bid price : 15.68
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.17
Bid-YTW : 9.90 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.80
Evaluated at bid price : 18.80
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.18
Bid-YTW : 7.35 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.63
Evaluated at bid price : 18.63
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.91
Bid-YTW : 7.94 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.69
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 20.11
Evaluated at bid price : 20.11
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.16
Evaluated at bid price : 18.16
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.33
Bid-YTW : 7.76 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 19.85
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 20.84
Evaluated at bid price : 20.84
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 19.05
Evaluated at bid price : 19.05
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.42
Bid-YTW : 7.75 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.54
Evaluated at bid price : 18.54
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.97
Evaluated at bid price : 18.97
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.26
Bid-YTW : 7.89 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 15.76
Evaluated at bid price : 15.76
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 24.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 13.75
Evaluated at bid price : 13.75
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BIP.PR.C FixedReset 60,790 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 35,150 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.56
Evaluated at bid price : 18.56
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 31,420 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 10.34
Evaluated at bid price : 10.34
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 26,115 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 12.05
Evaluated at bid price : 12.05
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 25,025 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 18.80
Evaluated at bid price : 18.80
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset 23,255 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 13.98 – 14.35
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2677

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.98
Bid-YTW : 9.97 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 14.17 – 14.43
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1805

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.17
Bid-YTW : 9.90 %

POW.PR.C Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.44 – 25.65
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1405

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-10-06
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.44
Bid-YTW : -5.23 %

TRP.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 13.22 – 13.44
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1510

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 13.22
Evaluated at bid price : 13.22
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.65 – 24.83
Spot Rate : 0.1800
Average : 0.1130

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 24.17
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %

TD.PF.D FixedReset Quote: 20.35 – 20.60
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1839

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-06
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %

Issue Comments

ENB Acquiring Spectra: Ratings Effect Unclear

Enbridge Inc. has announced:

Highlights:

  • •Creates largest energy infrastructure company in North America with C$1651 billion (US$127 billion) enterprise value
  • •Anticipated 15 percent annualized dividend increase in 2017 and annual 10-12 percent dividend growth thereafter through 2024. Industry leading secured project and risked development inventory of C$74 billion (US$57 billion) with C$26 billion (US$20 billion) currently in execution
  • •Complementary and diversified asset base to increase customer service offerings and optionality
  • •Enhanced ability to pursue projects that will improve customer access and service
  • •Strengthens investment grade balance sheet
  • •96 percent of cash flow generated by cost-of-service, take-or-pay, or fee-based contracts
  • •Industry-leading total return potential

Enbridge Inc. (TSX:ENB) (NYSE:ENB) (Enbridge) and Spectra Energy Corp (NYSE:SE) (Spectra Energy) today announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Enbridge and Spectra Energy will combine in a stock-for-stock merger transaction (the “Transaction”), which values Spectra Energy common stock at approximately C$37 billion (US$28 billion), based on the closing price of Enbridge’s common shares on September 2, 2016. The combination will create the largest energy infrastructure company in North America and one of the largest globally based on a pro-forma enterprise value of approximately C$165 billion (US$127 billion). The Transaction was unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors of both companies and is expected to close in the first quarter of 2017, subject to shareholder and certain regulatory approvals, and other customary conditions.

DBRS has announced that it:

has today placed all ratings of Enbridge Inc. (ENB), Enbridge Income Fund (EIF), Enbridge Pipelines Inc. (EPI), Enbridge Gas Distribution Inc. (EGD) and Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (EEP) Under Review with Developing Implications, as follows:

ENB plans a 15% annualized dividend increase in 2017 and annual 10% to 12% dividend growth thereafter through 2024. This is expected to result in a common dividend payout of 50% to 60% of available cash flow from operations (ACFFO), compared with ENB’s current 50% target payout ratio. ENB also plans to divest of approximately $2 billion of non-core assets over the next 12 months to provide additional financial flexibility. Annual run-rate synergies of $540 million (USD 415 million) are expected, the majority of which is expected to be achieved in the latter part of 2018. In addition, approximately $260 million (USD 200 million) of tax savings are anticipated commencing in 2019. On a combined basis, ENB will have a secured project and risked development inventory of $74 billion (USD 56 billion) currently in execution, with a very strong contractual profile.

With respect to the financial risk profile, ENB stated that it expects to fund future growth in a manner that is consistent with maintaining a strong investment-grade credit profile with key target metrics of 15% funds from operations (FFO) to debt and five times debt-to-EBITDA. DBRS notes that both ENB and SEC have significant capex programs over the medium term, with ENB’s being back-end loaded and SEC’s being front-end loaded, with the combination smoothing out the overall pattern somewhat over the 2017 to 2019 period. DBRS expects near-term pressure on ENB’s credit metrics to continue as a result of assumption of SEC’s existing debt and the relatively high near-term capex ($12.9 billion in 2017), partly offset by issuance of substantial common equity. Execution risk with respect to generating expected proceeds from the proposed asset sales is also present.

Spectra’s subsidiary Westcoast got a passing mention from DBRS:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today placed the ratings of Spectra Energy Capital, LLC (Spectra Capital, or the Company) and the ratings of the Company’s DBRS-rated subsidiaries Under Review with Developing Implications. The entities covered under this rating action are:

— Westcoast Energy Inc., First Preferred Shares – cumulative, redeemable rated Pfd-2 (low)

DBRS will further review the potential impacts of the Transaction on Spectra Capital’s ratings and the ratings of Company’s DBRS-rated subsidiaries, with an aim to resolve the Under Review – Developing Implications status.

S&P took a more cheerful view:

  • •Diversified energy companies Spectra Energy Corp. and Enbridge Inc. have announced an agreement whereby Enbridge will acquire Spectra in a stock-for-stock merger transaction totaling C$37 billion (US$28 billion). The combined company will be the largest energy company in North America and one of the top five global energy companies based on a pro forma enterprise value of about C$165 billion (US$127 billion).
  • •We are placing our ratings on Spectra and its financing subsidiary Spectra Energy Capital LLC.on CreditWatch with positive implications.
  • •At the same time, we placed the ratings on master limited partnership Spectra Energy Partners LP and operating subsidiary Texas Eastern Transmission L.P. on CreditWatch with positive implications.
  • •We expect to resolve the CreditWatch listing when the transaction closes sometime in the first quarter of 2017, at which time we expect to raise the rating on Spectra Energy Corp. and Spectra Energy Partners and Texas Eastern one notch to ‘BBB+’, which is in line with consolidated group credit profile of Enbridge Inc.


“The CreditWatch listing on Spectra and its operating subsidiaries reflect our expectation that we will raise the ratings in line with those of Enbridge Inc.,” S&P Global Ratings analyst Michael Grande said. “Spectra will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Enbridge, and we expect Spectra’s 2017 consolidated EBITDA of about US$3.2 billion will account for about 40% of the combined company’s pro forma cash flow.”

… and, with respect to Westcoast:

  • •On Sept. 6, Enbridge Inc. announced a merger with Spectra Energy Corp. in a share exchange transaction. When the merger’s completed, Spectra subsidiary Westcoast Energy Inc. will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Enbridge Inc.
  • •We are placing our ratings, including our ‘BBB’ long-term corporate credit rating, on CreditWatch with positive implications.
  • •The CreditWatch placement reflects our view that once completed, Westcoast Energy could be considered core to Enbridge Inc., which would lift the rating.


“The transaction would introduce group support from Enbridge, currently a higher rated entity than existing parent Spectra Energy,” said S&P Global
Ratings credit analyst Gerald Hannochko.

The CreditWatch placement reflects our view that if the transaction closes as expected, Westcoast would likely become core to Enbridge Inc., and the rating and outlook would be equalized with those on Enbridge Inc.

An upgrade is likely if the transaction is completed, and if we assess Westcoast’s group status as core.

Part of the apparent disagreement is that S&P rates Enbridge preferreds as P-2(low) and Westcoast as P-3(high), inverting the ranking of DBRS, which has Enbridge at Pfd-3(high) and Westcoast at Pfd-2(low). Credit ratings are not an exact science!

Affected issues are:

ENB.PF.A, ENB.PF.C, ENB.PF.E, ENB.PF.G, ENB.PR.A, ENB.PR.B, ENB.PR.D, ENB.PR.F, ENB.PR.H, ENB.PR.J, ENB.PR.N, ENB.PR.P, ENB.PR.T, ENB.PR.Y

W.PR.H, W.PR.J, W.PR.K

Update, 2016-9-7: Moody’s affirms Ba1 Preferred rating and maintains negative outlook:

Moody’s Investors Service has affirmed the Baa2 senior unsecured ratings for Enbridge Inc. (Enbridge) and its subsidiaries Enbridge Income Fund (EIF) and Enbridge Energy Limited Partnership (EELP).

“The transaction is credit positive for Enbridge because Spectra brings increased size and scale, and helps create the largest midstream company in North America with a more diverse asset portfolio,” said Gavin MacFarlane, Moody’s Vice President — Senior Credit Officer. “But the company’s combined leverage remains elevated. We are maintaining a negative rating outlook for Enbridge until we see the company execute the transaction, the large capital program in 2017 and deleveraging plans.”

Moody’s maintains a negative rating outlook for Enbridge based on the company’s very high levels of leverage. As of June 2016, Enbridge’s ratio of debt-to-EBITDA was 7.2x, while Spectra’s was about 5.8x and on a combined last twelve months basis their leverage was about 6.7x. The higher combined leverage is owing to the larger size of Enbridge relative to Spectra, as Spectra accounts for roughly 40% of the combined entities’ EBITDA. Moody’s continues to expect the financial metrics of both companies to improve as they progress with their capital programs. At the same time, Enbridge has announced $2 billion of asset monetizations that Moody’s expects will incrementally reduce leverage at ENB. Moody’s views the prospect of asset monetizations as credit positive and considers this as a meaningful change from a financial strategy perspective, as this represents the first time this decade that management has sought to sell assets out of the group to fund its capital program. The combination of the two entities provides more levers for management to pull in order to manage pressure on credit quality.

The negative outlook on ENB reflects its high leverage and execution risk associated with its plan to delever in a timely fashion. ENB has a plan to do so by the end of 2017 and a number of options at its disposal to reduce leverage. However, if the company fails to execute and debt-to-EBITDA of about 5.5x is unlikely to be achieved by the end of FY2017, the company could be downgraded.

MAPF

MAPF Portfolio Composition, August 2016

Turnover plummetted in August to about 3%.

There is extreme segmentation in the marketplace, with OSFI’s NVCC rule changes in February 2011 having had the effect of splitting the formerly relatively homogeneous Straight Perpetual class of preferreds into three parts:

  • Unaffected Straight Perpetuals
  • DeemedRetractibles explicitly subject to the rules (banks)
  • DeemedRetractibles considered by me, but not (yet!) by the market, to be likely to be explicitly subject to the rules in the future (insurers and insurance holding companies)

This segmentation, and the extreme valuation differences between the segments, has cut down markedly on the opportunities for trading.

To make this more clear, it used to be that there were 70-odd Straight Perpetuals and I was more or less indifferent as to which ones I owned (subject, of course, to issuer concentration concerns and other risk management factors). Thus, if any one of these 70 were to go down in price by – say – $0.25, I would quite often have something in inventory that I’d be willing to swap for it. The segmentation means that I am no longer indifferent; in addition to checking the valuation of a potential buy to other Straights, I also have to check its peer group. This cuts down on the potential for trading.

And, of course, the same segmentation has the same effect on trading opportunities between FixedReset issues.

There is no real hope that this situation will be corrected in the near-term. OSFI has indicated that the long-promised “Draft Definition of Capital” for insurers will not be issued “for public consultation in late 2012 or early 2013”, as they fear that it might encourage speculation in the marketplace. It is not clear why OSFI is so afraid of informed speculation, since the constant speculation in the marketplace is currently less informed than it would be with a little bit of regulatory clarity. While the framework has been updated, the modifications focus on the amount of capital required, not the required characteristics of that capital.

As a result of this delay, I have extended the Deemed Maturity date for insurers and insurance holding companies by three years (to 2025-1-31), in the expectation that when OSFI finally does provide clarity, they will allow the same degree of lead-in time for these companies as they did for banks. This had a major effect on the durations of preferred shares subject to the change but, fortunately, not much on their calculated yields as most of these issues were either trading near par when the change was made or were trading at sufficient premium that a par call was expected on economic grounds. However, with the declines in the market over the past nine months, the expected capital gain on redemption of the insurance-issued DeemedRetractibles has become an important component of the calculated yield.

Due to the footdragging by OSFI, I will be extending the DeemedMaturity date for insurance issues by another two years in the near future.

Sectoral distribution of the MAPF portfolio on July 29 was as follows:

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2016-8-31
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 0% N/A N/A
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualDiscount 10.2% 5.02% 15.43
Fixed-Reset 71.9% 7.50% 10.14
Deemed-Retractible 0% N/A N/A
FloatingReset 8.0% 10.54% 7.28
Scraps (Various) 9.7% 6.97% 12.95
Cash +0.3% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 7.42% 10.70
Totals and changes will not add precisely due to rounding. Cash is included in totals with duration and yield both equal to zero.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company. These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-3 (insurers and insurance holding companies), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See OSFI Does Not Grandfather Extant Tier 1 Capital, CM.PR.D, CM.PR.E, CM.PR.G: NVCC Status Confirmed and the January, February, March and June, 2011, editions of PrefLetter for the rationale behind this analysis. (all recent editions have a short summary of the argument included in the “DeemedRetractible” section)

Note that the estimate for the time this will become effective for insurers and insurance holding companies was extended by three years in April 2013, due to the delays in OSFI’s providing clarity on the issue.

Calculations of resettable instruments are performed assuming a constant GOC-5 rate of 0.69% and a constant 3-Month Bill rate of 0.55%

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.). MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2016-8-31
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 0 (0)
Pfd-1(low) 0 (0)
Pfd-2(high) 29.4%
Pfd-2 34.9%
Pfd-2(low) 35.7%
Pfd-3(high) 1.4%
Pfd-3 4.7%
Pfd-3(low) 3.0%
Pfd-4(high) 0%
Pfd-4 0%
Pfd-4(low) 0%
Pfd-5(high) 0.7%
Pfd-5 0.0%
Cash +0.3%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.
The fund holds a position in AZP.PR.C, which is rated P-5(high) by S&P and is unrated by DBRS
A position held in INE.PR.A is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-3” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-3.
A position held in BIP.PR.A is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-2(low)” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-2(low).

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2016-08-31
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 12.2%
$50,000 – $100,000 47.4%
$100,000 – $200,000 32.2%
$200,000 – $300,000 1.8%
>$300,000 6.2%
Cash +0.3%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available the fund’s web page. The fund may be purchased either directly from Hymas Investment Management or through a brokerage account at Odlum Brown Limited. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission). Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

A similar portfolio composition analysis has been performed on the Claymore Preferred Share ETF (symbol CPD) (and other funds) as of August 31, 2012, and published in the October (mainly methodology), November (most funds), and December (ZPR) 2012, PrefLetter. While direct comparisons are difficult due to the introduction of the DeemedRetractible class of preferred share (see above) it is fair to say:

  • MAPF credit quality is better
  • MAPF liquidity is a bit lower
  • MAPF Yield is higher
  • Weightings
    • MAPF is less exposed to Straight Perpetuals (including DeemedRetractibles)
    • MAPF is less exposed to Operating Retractibles
    • MAPF is more exposed to SplitShares
    • MAPF is less exposed to FixFloat / Floater / Ratchet
    • MAPF is overweighted in FixedResets