July 21, 2010

July 21st, 2010

Nothing happened today. How dull.

Continued good volume in the Canadian preferred share market, a PerpetualDiscounts squeaked out a win of 1bp, while FixedResets were up 9bp, edging their median weighted average yield a little closer to 3.50%.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.90%, equivalent to 8.26% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x. Long corporates now yield 5.6%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the Seniority Spread) is now about 265bp, a significant tightening from the 280bp reported on July 14.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.82 % 2.90 % 23,397 20.26 1 0.0000 % 2,078.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2200 % 3,154.6
Floater 2.51 % 2.15 % 42,290 21.97 4 0.2200 % 2,248.4
OpRet 4.89 % -0.38 % 102,180 0.08 11 -0.2754 % 2,338.7
SplitShare 6.27 % 5.02 % 75,410 0.08 2 0.1732 % 2,213.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2754 % 2,138.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.90 % 5.28 % 106,544 1.81 4 0.0491 % 1,941.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.83 % 5.90 % 182,356 14.04 73 0.0106 % 1,852.6
FixedReset 5.31 % 3.53 % 333,251 3.46 47 0.0940 % 2,221.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
RY.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-21
Maturity Price : 20.94
Evaluated at bid price : 20.94
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
BAM.PR.I OpRet -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-08-20
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : -0.38 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-21
Maturity Price : 20.69
Evaluated at bid price : 20.69
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.91
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-21
Maturity Price : 25.55
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-21
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.K FixedReset 111,472 RBC crossed 22,500 at 26.96. Desjardins crossed blocks of 49,800 and 25,000, both at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.89
Bid-YTW : 3.30 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 84,422 RBC crossed 20,000 at 27.68; National crossed 25,000 at 27.74.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.69
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 71,120 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-21
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
IAG.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 63,320 TD crossed three blocks, 25,000 shares, 14,100 and 18,500, all at 19.35.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-21
Maturity Price : 19.35
Evaluated at bid price : 19.35
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
TD.PR.A FixedReset 62,370 RBC crossed blocks of 25,000 and 36,000, both at 26.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset 53,444 National crossed 25,000 at 26.89, then bought 11,000 from anonymous at 26.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.87
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
There were 45 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

July 20, 2010

July 21st, 2010

Fabulous Fabio is fighting the SEC fraud charges:

Fabrice Tourre, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive director sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission for fraud, disputed the claims and said he relied on his firm’s legal and compliance department.

The firm is cooperating in the SEC’s investigation of Tourre, 31, who remains an employee. He is on leave, with legal expenses being paid by New York-based Goldman Sachs.

“The purported claims against Mr. Tourre and the allegations upon which they are based are improperly vague, ambiguous and confusing, and omit critical facts,” the filing said. “Mr. Tourre, a French citizen and engineer by training, reasonably relied on Goldman Sachs’ institutional process to ensure adequate legal review and disclosure of material information, and cannot be held liable for any alleged failings of that process.”In the filing, Tourre said he was aware that Paulson “was considering taking some or all of the short side” of the transaction. He added that the offering document for the CDO contained all relevant information for investors, including the complete portfolio of assets, the fact that no one was purchasing the equity portion of the deal and that a Goldman Sachs affiliate had a short interest and could transfer that interest.

“The portion of the offering document prepared by ACA and for which ACA assumed sole responsibility states that ACA will ‘select the Initial Reference Portfolio,’” the filing said.

Senator Tom Coburn, a Republican from Oklahoma who serves on the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, repeatedly questioned Tourre and other Goldman Sachs executives on why the firm decided to release Tourre’s e-mails, including some that seemed unrelated to the hearing.

“If I worked for Goldman Sachs, I’d be real worried that somebody has made a decision, ‘he’s going to be a whipping boy, he’s the guy that’s getting hung out to dry,’” Coburn told Blankfein during the hearing.

So there’s nothing too surprising in all this, other than the fact that a politician made an intelligent comment in the final paragraph.

It is of interest that Goldman is continuing to pay Tourre’s legal expenses. It is quite common for regulators to claim that paying legal expenses for an employee constitutes lack of cooperation, therefore leaving the fall guy facing hundreds of government lawyers on the government payroll all by himself. Lucky for Tourre, that doesn’t yet appear to be the case in this instance.

I am glad that somebody (namely, Tourre) has finally brought to light the startling news that Goldman has a legal and a compliance department who were involved in the issue. Am I the only other person in the entire world who has wondered why, if Goldman-the-firm did such a Very Bad Thing, that only one single employee has been charged? Am I the only other person in the entire world who has noticed the total lack of SEC interest in going after all the people who signed off on the deal?

It’s a farce, a ridiculous farce, just another piece of regulatory extortion and political theatre. The fact that one guy who did a good job is at jeopardy of losing his reputation and entire career in the process doesn’t bother the apparatchiks at the SEC.

A day of mixed results on good volume for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 15bp and FixedResets down 7bp.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.82 % 2.90 % 23,574 20.27 1 -0.2370 % 2,078.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1439 % 3,147.7
Floater 2.29 % 1.97 % 40,386 22.45 4 0.1439 % 2,243.5
OpRet 4.87 % -0.15 % 102,744 0.09 11 0.2442 % 2,345.2
SplitShare 6.28 % 6.17 % 77,870 3.42 2 0.2169 % 2,209.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2442 % 2,144.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.91 % 5.27 % 107,805 1.82 4 0.3648 % 1,940.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.84 % 5.90 % 189,056 14.03 73 0.1481 % 1,852.4
FixedReset 5.32 % 3.57 % 337,483 3.46 47 -0.0655 % 2,219.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-20
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-20
Maturity Price : 24.60
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-20
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
BAM.PR.I OpRet 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-08-19
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : -18.45 %
HSB.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-20
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
IAG.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 98,341 TD crossed 89,400 at 24.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-20
Maturity Price : 24.54
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
GWO.PR.J FixedReset 65,768 Nesbitt bought 10,000 from RBC at 27.10 and 20,000 from anonymous at the same price. RBC crossed 20,300 at 27.18.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.10
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
TD.PR.A FixedReset 65,125 RBC crossed blocks of 35,000 and 28,000, both at 26.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.14
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 64,750 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-20
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 25.45
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 61,476 Scotia crossed 53,500 at 26.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : 3.23 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 60,814 Nesbitt bought 30,000 from anonymous at 27.87. National crossed 25,000 at 27.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.60
Bid-YTW : 3.36 %
There were 47 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

BoC Hikes Overnight Rate by 25bp to 0.75%, Prime Follows

July 20th, 2010

The Bank of Canada has announced:

The Bank expects the economic recovery in Canada to be more gradual than it had projected in its April MPR, with growth of 3.5 per cent in 2010, 2.9 per cent in 2011, and 2.2 per cent in 2012. This revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption growth in Canada. The Bank anticipates that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth.

Inflation in Canada has been broadly in line with the Bank’s April projection. While the Bank now expects the economy to return to full capacity at the end of 2011, two quarters later than had been anticipated in April, the underlying dynamics for inflation are little changed. Both total CPI and core inflation are expected to remain near 2 per cent throughout the projection period. The Bank will look through the transitory effects on inflation of changes to provincial indirect taxes.

Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to raise the target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent. This decision leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in light of the significant excess supply in Canada, the strength of domestic spending, and the uneven global recovery.

Prime followed:

New Issue: FFH FixedReset 5.00%+256

July 20th, 2010

Fairfax Financial Holdings has announced:

that it will issue in Canada 8 million Preferred Shares, Series G at a price of $25.00 per share, for aggregate gross proceeds of $200 million, on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of Canadian underwriters.

Holders of the Preferred Shares, Series G will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed dividend yielding 5.0% annually for the initial five year period ending September 30, 2015. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the then current 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 2.56%.

Holders of Preferred Shares, Series G will have the right, at their option, to convert their shares into Preferred Shares, Series H, subject to certain conditions, on September 30, 2015, and on September 30 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Preferred Shares, Series H will be entitled to receive cumulative quarterly floating dividends at a rate equal to the then current three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 2.56%.

Fairfax has granted the underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part at any time up to 9:00 am on the date that is two business days prior to the closing date, to purchase an additional 2 million Preferred Shares, Series G at the same offering price for additional gross proceeds of $50 million.

Fairfax intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to augment its cash position, to increase short term investments and marketable securities held at the holding company level, to retire outstanding debt and other corporate obligations from time to time, and for general corporate purposes. The offering is expected to close on or about July 28, 2010.

July 19, 2010

July 19th, 2010

BIS has released a Countercyclical capital buffer proposal:

The countercyclical capital buffer will work by giving each jurisdiction the ability to use their judgement to extend the size of the minimum buffer range established by the capital conservation buffer.

Under this proposal, buffer add-on decisions would be preannounced by 12 months to give banks time to meet the additional capital requirements before they take effect, while reductions in the buffer would take effect immediately to help to reduce the risk of the supply of credit being constrained by regulatory capital requirements.

A buffer range is established above the regulatory minimum Tier 1 capital requirement and capital distribution constraints will be imposed on the bank when capital levels fall within this range. The constraints imposed only relate to distributions, not the fundamental operations of the bank.

The distribution constraints imposed on banks when their capital levels fall into the range increase as the banks’ capital levels approach the minimum requirement. By design, the constraints imposed on banks with capital levels at the top of the range would be minimal. This reflects an expectation that banks’ capital levels will from time to time fall into this range. The Basel Committee does not wish to impose constraints for entering the range that would be so restrictive as to result in the range being viewed as establishing a new minimum capital requirement.

The table below illustrates how it is proposed that the capital conservation buffer operates using discrete bands. The numbers in the table are illustrative as the proposal still needs to be calibrated. Using the table as an example, the buffer range is divided into quartiles. If a bank suffers losses such that its capital level falls into the second quartile above the minimum requirement then the bank would be required to conserve 80% of its earnings in the subsequent financial year9 (ie payout no more than 20% in terms of dividends, share buybacks and discretionary bonus payments). If the bank wants to make payments in excess of the constraints imposed by this regime, it would have the option of raising capital in the private sector equal to the amount above the constraint which they wish to distribute. This would be discussed with the bank’s supervisor as part of the capital planning process.

Perhaps stung by IMF criticism of the pace of reforms, BIS has released a statement of progress highlighting their consultation paper on countercyclical buffers discussed above and inchoate proposals for contingent capital:

The Committee also reviewed proposals for the role of “gone concern” contingent capital in the regulatory capital framework and will issue shortly a proposal for consultation. It continues to assess proposals on contingent capital from a “going concern” perspective.

Themis Trading reports that internet gamers take their avocation more seriously than the average investment manager takes their fiduciary duty … and opines that this is a good thing:

Today we just got a call from a firm that sells specialized computing hardware for the online gaming industry. Apparently there are folks who play Call of Duty version XYZ, or whatever game, professionally for money, and these guys need faster speed. Anyways, this firm sells computer servers that are sitting in liquid, so that they are cooler, and can be faster. The gaming professionals buy these servers for this reason. This firm bragged to us that they just sold their server to a High Frequency Trading firm for the first time, and thought we might want one too.

Is this what are markets have come to?

Are the capital markets really about making sure that these guys can turn the markets into a giant arms race, where everyone has to pay up for liquid-submersible computers and co-location rents just so that they can get fair access to the same bids and offers?

Moody’s cut Ireland a notch to Aa2.

The EU Stwess Tests will be published on June 23.

There was good volume on the Canadian preferred share market today, as PerpetualDiscounts gained 11bp and FixedResets lost 3bp.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.81 % 2.89 % 23,625 20.29 1 0.2375 % 2,083.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2479 % 3,143.2
Floater 2.29 % 1.96 % 39,759 22.47 4 -0.2479 % 2,240.3
OpRet 4.88 % 1.64 % 103,036 0.28 11 -0.0778 % 2,339.4
SplitShare 6.29 % 6.16 % 77,073 3.42 2 0.1303 % 2,204.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0778 % 2,139.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.93 % 5.64 % 108,551 1.82 4 -0.0394 % 1,933.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.84 % 5.91 % 187,209 14.01 73 0.1090 % 1,849.6
FixedReset 5.31 % 3.54 % 327,793 3.46 47 -0.0253 % 2,221.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-19
Maturity Price : 24.29
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
GWO.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-19
Maturity Price : 24.35
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-19
Maturity Price : 24.25
Evaluated at bid price : 24.45
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
BMO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-19
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-19
Maturity Price : 19.05
Evaluated at bid price : 19.05
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PR.E FixedReset 134,850 RBC crossed three blocks, of 30,000 shares, 40,000 and 50,000, all at 27.64.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.59
Bid-YTW : 3.37 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 63,210 Nesbitt bought 10,000 from Scotia at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-19
Maturity Price : 25.48
Evaluated at bid price : 25.53
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
TD.PR.C FixedReset 55,765 RBC crossed 50,000 at 27.01.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.88
Bid-YTW : 3.31 %
PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 52,900 RBC crossed 50,000 at 24.84.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-19
Maturity Price : 24.46
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 41,979 RBC bought 12,300 from Nesbitt at 27.75, then crossed 24,300 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.76
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
TD.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 31,721 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-19
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
There were 39 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

HFT: A Boon for Value Investors?

July 18th, 2010

Reginald Smith of the Bouchet-Franklin Institute (not a brand name institution, by any measure) has written a paper titled Is high-frequency trading inducing changes in market microstructure and dynamics?:

Using high-frequency time series of stock prices and share volumes sizes from January 2002-May 2009, this paper investigates whether the effects of the onset of high-frequency trading, most prominent since 2005, are apparent in the dynamics of the dollar traded volume. Indeed it is found in almost all of 14 heavily traded stocks, that there has been an increase in the Hurst exponent of dollar traded volume from Gaussian noise in the earlier years to more self-similar dynamics in later years. This shift is linked both temporally to the Reg NMS reforms allowing high-frequency trading to flourish as well as to the declining average size of trades with smaller trades showing markedly higher degrees of self-similarity.

The abstract immediately suggested the title of this post. If large stocks are correlated with each other (rather than, you know, with how their business is doing) then deviations from fair value will be more frequent, offering value traders more entry and exit points.

In addition, the HFT strategy of taking advantage of pricing signals from large orders has forced many orders off exchanges into proprietary trading networks called ‘dark pools’ which get their name from the fact they are private networks which only report the prices of transactions after the transaction has occurred and typically anonymously match large orders without price advertisements.

I can assure you that this is correct; I can assure you that the size of an order required to move the market is smaller than you might think; and I can assure you that there are many, many institutional PMs who will grin at you condescendingly when you tell them this. This comes from personal experience with S&P 500 stocks, not the preferred share backwater, by the way.

Given the relative burstiness of signals with H > 0.5 we can also determine that volatility in trading patterns is no longer due to just adverse events but is becoming an increasingly intrinsic part of trading activity. Like internet traffic Leland et. al. (1994), if HFT trades are self-similar with H > 0.5, more participants in the market generate more volatility, not more predictable behavior.

Traded value, and by extension trading volume, fluctuations are starting to show self-similarity at increasingly shorter timescales. Values which were once only present on the orders of several hours or days are now commonplace in the timescale of seconds or minutes. It is important that the trading algorithms of HFT traders, as well as those who seek to understand, improve, or regulate HFT realize that the overall structure of trading is influenced in a measurable manner by HFT and that Gaussian noise models of short term trading volume fluctuations likely are increasingly inapplicable.

July 16, 2010

July 16th, 2010

The penny just dropped on US Financial Reform:

Bank of America Corp. led financial stocks lower after saying U.S. curbs on debit-card fees may trigger a $10 billion charge, spurring speculation that rival banks have underestimated their own costs.

The slide began after Bank of America said rules in the financial industry overhaul, including the Durbin amendment’s curbs on debit-card fees, may prompt the charge and trim annual revenue by $2.3 billion, more than some of the most pessimistic estimates. JPMorgan Chase & Co., ranked second by assets in the U.S., dropped as much as 3.6 percent.

Moody’s Investors Service said in June that Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, the three biggest U.S. debit-card issuers, may face $1.38 billion in annual lost revenue from the proposed cap on “swipe” fees. DBRS Inc., the Toronto-based ratings firm had said the impact just for Bank of America could be $1.9 billion.

Bank of America’s debit-card revenue could shrink by $1.8 billion to $2.3 billion starting in the third quarter of next year because of restrictions on fees merchants can charge for each swipe of a debit card, Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said in a presentation today.

The bank also expects a goodwill charge of $7 billion to $10 billion in the third quarter tied to the value of the business after President Barack Obama signs the regulatory reform law approved by Congress this week, Chief Financial Officer Charles Noski said on a conference call.

Note that it looks like the Credit Rating Agencies got it wrong! It must be because they’re corrupt! They’re paid by the issuers, you know! Quick, make them a public utility, so they can be run as efficiently as the Toronto Transit Commission!

Speaking of the CRAs, DBRS has announced a GREAT LEAP FORWARD!!!

The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Code of Conduct Fundamentals for CRAs (IOSCO Code) requires that SF ratings be differentiated from corporate bond ratings, preferably through a different rating symbology.*

Currently, DBRS press releases specify the type of rating being published, such as whether it is an SF rating, a Financial Institutions rating or a Public Finance rating (the PR Notation). Effective August 16, 2010, the PR Notation on all DBRS press releases will no longer be used.

For its SF modifier, DBRS will use the symbol “(sf)” next to the rating category for ratings that meet the requested criteria in its public press releases and rating reports. The “(sf)” symbol will only indicate that the security is an SF instrument and will not change the meaning or definition of the rating in any other way nor will it change the risk of any particular SF instrument. DBRS’s expectation of the performance of each rated SF instrument is not adjusted in any way by the SF modifier.

Isn’t that convenient? Investors will no longer have to read the prospectus to discover deeply hidden facts like such-and-such is a structured investment, it will be right there in the rating! No need for any thought at all! Thank you, IOSCO!

Another strong day on high volume for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 24bp and FixedResets up 16bp, taking the median weighted average Yield-to-Worst of the latter class down to 3.57%. The all-time low yield for that index is 3.31% on March 26.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.81 % 2.89 % 23,676 20.29 1 0.0000 % 2,078.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0652 % 3,151.0
Floater 2.28 % 1.96 % 41,290 22.47 4 -0.0652 % 2,245.9
OpRet 4.88 % 1.59 % 101,758 0.29 11 -0.0247 % 2,341.3
SplitShare 6.30 % 6.17 % 77,477 3.43 2 0.0435 % 2,201.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0247 % 2,140.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.93 % 5.33 % 110,226 1.83 4 0.1777 % 1,934.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.85 % 5.92 % 184,665 14.00 73 0.2413 % 1,847.6
FixedReset 5.31 % 3.57 % 330,742 3.47 47 0.1550 % 2,221.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 18.70
Evaluated at bid price : 18.70
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 3.19 %
CM.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 19.32
Evaluated at bid price : 19.32
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
RY.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.40
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.91
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 20.44
Evaluated at bid price : 20.44
Bid-YTW : 6.53 %
TD.PR.R Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 24.28
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
SLF.PR.F FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.62
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
GWO.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 23.87
Evaluated at bid price : 24.06
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 20.96
Evaluated at bid price : 20.96
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
RY.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 20.72
Evaluated at bid price : 20.72
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BAM.PR.J OpRet 199,920 Dropped from TXPR as of the opening Monday 19th, which means selling pressure from CPD, from other indexers & closet-indexers, and possibly speculators. We shall see how the three-month rebalancing period unfolds! Nesbitt crossed blocks of 50,000 and 122,200, both at 25.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 82,430 Added to TXPR. Nesbitt crossed three blocks of 25,000 each at 24.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 24.73
Evaluated at bid price : 24.78
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
TD.PR.R Perpetual-Discount 57,163 Added to TXPR. RBC bought 11,000 from National at 24.33.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 24.28
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
CM.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 55,413 Added to TXPR. TD crossed 38,100 at 23.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 23.18
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 49,614 TD crossed 25,700 at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.61
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
SLF.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 44,835 RBC crossed 26,500 at 19.93.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-16
Maturity Price : 19.95
Evaluated at bid price : 19.95
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
There were 42 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

LSC.PR.C: Partial Redemption and Change of Terms

July 16th, 2010

Lifeco Split Corporation Inc. has announced:

that in relation to its previously announced reorganization, the Company has called 15,194 Preferred Shares for cash redemption on July 30, 2010, representing approximately 6.6035% of the outstanding Preferred Shares. The Company is redeeming the 15,194 Preferred Shares in order to increase the downside protection on the remaining Preferred Shares to approximately 38.8%, as at July 15, 2010. The Preferred Shares shall be redeemed on a pro rata basis so that each holder of Preferred Shares of record on July 29, 2010 will have approximately 6.6035% of their Preferred Shares redeemed. Holders of the Preferred Shares being redeemed will still be entitled to the dividend payable on July 30, 2010. The redemption price of the Preferred Shares will be equal to the lesser of (i) Unit Value on July 26, 2010 (the “Valuation Date”) and (ii) $51.19. As at the close of business yesterday, Unit Value was $76.20. The Preferred Shares will commence trading on a post redemption basis commencing July 27, 2010.

Immediately following the redemption of the Preferred Shares, the Company will subdivide the remaining Preferred Shares on a 1.39-for-1 basis in order to maintain the ratio of two Capital Shares for each Preferred Share. Accordingly, the redemption price of the Preferred Shares will be adjusted so that after the subdivision, the Preferred Shares will be redeemable for a cash amount equal to the lesser of (i) Unit Value and (ii) $36.84. The quarterly fixed distribution of the Preferred Shares will be also be adjusted, effective July 30, 2010, so that after the subdivision, holders of Preferred Shares will be entitled to quarterly fixed distributions equal to $0.3684. On an annualized basis, the fixed distribution will continue to represent a yield of 4.00% on the redemption price of $36.84. The subdivision will be effected as at the close of business on August 5, 2010 and the Preferred Shares will commence trading on a post subdivision basis commencing August 3, 2010.

It is not clear to me whether these 15,194 shares are including or in addition to the redemption of 10,107 shares due to unmatched capital unit retractions announced in June.

The downside protection on the remaining Preferred Shares to approximately 38.8% equates to Asset Coverage of 1.6+:1.

LSC.PR.C is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

WFS.PR.A: Warrants for Capital Unitholders

July 15th, 2010

World Financial Split Corp. has announced:

that it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus relating to an offering of Warrants to holders of its Class A Shares. Each Class A shareholder of record on the record date will receive one Warrant for each Class A Share held.

Each Warrant will entitle its holder to acquire one Class A Share and one Preferred Share upon payment of the subscription price. The record date and the subscription price will be determined at the time the Fund files its final prospectus for the offering. The Fund has applied to list the Warrants and the Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares issuable upon the exercise thereof on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The exercise of Warrants by holders will provide the Fund with additional capital that can be used to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities and is also expected to increase the trading liquidity of the Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares and to reduce the management expense ratio of the Fund.

The Fund invests in a portfolio that includes common equity securities selected from the ten largest financial services companies by market capitalization in each of Canada, the United States and the rest of the world (the “Portfolio Universe”). In addition, up to 20% of the NAV of the Fund may be invested in common equity securities of financial services companies that are not in the Portfolio Universe but meet certain market capitalization and credit rating thresholds. To generate additional returns above the distributions earned on its securities, the Fund may, from time to time, write covered call options in respect of some or all of the securities in its portfolio. The Fund may also, from time to time, write cash-covered put options in respect of securities in which the Fund is permitted to invest. The Fund’s investment portfolio is managed by its investment manager, Mulvihill Capital Management Inc.

WFS.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when it’s last warrant offering was 10% subscribed. WFS.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™, but is relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

July 15, 2010

July 15th, 2010

Bernanke announced that his boss is doing a great job. The American Bankers’ Association isn’t so sure:

The American Bankers Association is very disappointed with the regulatory reform bill that is now headed for enactment. While its core provisions provide needed reform, it is overloaded with new rules and restrictions on traditional banks that did not cause the financial crisis. The result will be over 5,000 pages of new regulations on traditional banks and years of uncertainty as to what the massive new rules will mean.

To my great disappointment, Goldman knuckled under to regulatory extortion:

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Goldman, Sachs & Co. will pay $550 million and reform its business practices to settle SEC charges that Goldman misled investors in a subprime mortgage product just as the U.S. housing market was starting to collapse.

However, the SEC agrees that Goldman committed no actual wrongdoing:

Goldman agreed to settle the SEC’s charges without admitting or denying the allegations by consenting to the entry of a final judgment that provides for a permanent injunction from violations of the antifraud provisions of the Securities Act of 1933.

The SEC trumpets the Goldman statement:

Goldman acknowledges that the marketing materials for the ABACUS 2007-ACI transaction contained incomplete information. In particular, it was a mistake for the Goldman marketing materials to state that the reference portfolio was “selected by” ACA Management LLC without disclosing the role of Paulson & Co. Inc. in the portfolio selection process and that Paulson’s economic interests were adverse to CDO investors. Goldman regrets that the marketing materials did not contain that disclosure.

I can see it’s time to take legal advice; perhaps my fund documents should include a disclosure to the effect that “Everything the fund owns was sold to it by somebody else.”. Perhaps that will help keep me out of trouble.

The rally in the Canadian preferred share market continued on heavy volume today, with PerpetualDiscounts up 24bp and FixedResets up 18bp.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.81 % 2.89 % 23,300 20.30 1 0.0000 % 2,078.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0652 % 3,153.0
Floater 2.28 % 1.96 % 42,883 22.47 4 0.0652 % 2,247.3
OpRet 4.88 % 1.71 % 94,234 0.29 11 -0.0071 % 2,341.8
SplitShare 6.30 % 6.19 % 80,101 3.43 2 -0.1085 % 2,200.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0071 % 2,141.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.94 % 5.62 % 111,426 1.83 4 0.3070 % 1,930.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.86 % 5.91 % 184,415 14.03 73 0.2425 % 1,843.2
FixedReset 5.32 % 3.63 % 325,281 3.47 47 0.1790 % 2,218.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-15
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 1.96 %
BMO.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-15
Maturity Price : 23.40
Evaluated at bid price : 23.59
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
BMO.PR.N FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-27
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 28.25
Bid-YTW : 3.02 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-15
Maturity Price : 18.56
Evaluated at bid price : 18.56
Bid-YTW : 6.47 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-15
Maturity Price : 18.73
Evaluated at bid price : 18.73
Bid-YTW : 6.41 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-15
Maturity Price : 15.64
Evaluated at bid price : 15.64
Bid-YTW : 2.81 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 143,200 RBC crossed two blocks of 50,000 each at 21.12.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-15
Maturity Price : 21.04
Evaluated at bid price : 21.04
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset 132,015 HSBC sold 11,300 to anonymous at 26.00. Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 50,000 each at 26.05. Nesbitt sold 18,600 to TD at 26.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 79,663 Scotia crossed 33,300 at 20.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-15
Maturity Price : 19.71
Evaluated at bid price : 19.71
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 61,872 RBC crossed 50,000 at 20.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-15
Maturity Price : 20.12
Evaluated at bid price : 20.12
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
BNS.PR.T FixedReset 52,704 TD crossed 44,000 at 27.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.80
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 51,441 TD sold 10,000 to RBC at 27.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.75
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
There were 53 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.