Market Action

December 30, 2008

As far as I can tell, the market has decided that there is a faint possibility that not every financial institution in Canada will go bankrupt in 2008. But we’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Best day for PerpetualDiscounts since 2006-6-30 at latest, which is the earliest date for which I have convenient daily return figures. How ’bout them SunLifes, eh?

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30.
The Fixed-Reset index was added effective 2008-9-5 at that day’s closing value of 1,119.4 for the Fixed-Floater index.
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 8.15% 8.19% 137,589 12.55 7 +2.9854% 655.3
Floater 7.36% 7.41% 94,465 12.04 2 +7.0109% 442.6
Op. Retract 5.44% 5.27% 169,660 3.95 14 +0.8548% 1,004.6
Split-Share 6.42% 11.07% 93,532 3.95 15 +1.4025% 968.6
Interest Bearing 9.40% 17.50% 58,851 2.76 3 +3.1991% 798.9
Perpetual-Premium N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Perpetual-Discount 7.48% 7.58% 248,661 11.90 71 +4.9072% 747.3
Fixed-Reset 5.96% 4.97% 1,013,355 14.95 18 +0.5626% 1,015.2
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
RY.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +6.0366% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.87% based on a bid of 17.39 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.39-73. Day’s range of 17.00-75.
BNS.PR.K PerpetualDiscount +6.0699% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.09% based on a bid of 17.30 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.30-58, 5×7. Day’s range of 16.55-01.
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount +6.1786% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.45% based on a bid of 15.81 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.81-46, 1×1. Day’s range of 14.98-16.31.
DF.PR.A SplitShare +6.2963% Asset coverage of 1.3+:1 as of December 15 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.33% based on a bid of 8.61 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.61-98, 2×5. Day’s range of 8.49-60.
BAM.PR.J OpRet +6.3401% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 13.32% based on a bid of 14.76 and a softMaturity 2018-3-30. Closing quote of 14.76-15.80, 6×1. Day’s range of 14.00-15.80.
HSB.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +6.4309% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.78% based on a bid of 16.55 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 16.55-00, 13×3. Day’s range of 16.00-85.
BNS.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +6.4928% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.99% based on a bid of 19.19 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 19.19-54, 5×1. Day’s range of 19.00-55.
RY.PR.W PerpetualDiscount +6.5242% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.57% based on a bid of 18.94 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 18.94-99, 1×2. Day’s range of 18.00-19.00.
BAM.PR.B Floater +6.6313%  
MFC.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +6.6667% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.87% based on a bid of 17.12 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.12-75, 3×8. Day’s range of 16.60-17.75.
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +6.8563% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.92% based on a bid of 14.65 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 14.65-15.65 (!). Day’s range of 13.80-15.29.
RY.PR.F PerpetualDiscount +7.3472% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.85% based on a bid of 16.51 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 16.51-77, 3×10. Day’s range of 16.40-79.
BAM.PR.K Floater +7.3658%  
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount +7.6923% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 12.30% based on a bid of 9.80 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 9.80-14, 12×3. Day’s range of 9.20-10.22.
PWF.PR.L PerpetualDiscount +8.0235% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.88% based on a bid of 16.56 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 16.56-25, 5×10. Day’s range of 16.00-49.
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +8.2245% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.90% based on a bid of 16.58 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 16.58-76, 3×19. Day’s range of 15.60-16.70.
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount +8.5271% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 12.30% based on a bid of 9.80 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 9.80-39, 1×3. Day’s range of 9.25-10.41.
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +8.6181% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.62% based on a bid of 14.62 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 14.62-85, 2×5. Day’s range of 13.99-80.
ELF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount +8.6708% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.83% based on a bid of 15.10 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.10-69, 10×15. Day’s range of 14.51-00.
GWO.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +8.9881% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.57% based on a bid of 17.34 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.34-97, 5×1. Day’s range of 16.13-18.40 (!).
SLF.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +9.8940% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.71% based on a bid of 15.55 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.55-09, 1×5. Day’s range of 14.31-15.75.
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +10.2206% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.49% based on a bid of 14.99 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 14.99-39, 5×5. Day’s range of 14.20-15.53.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +10.3034% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.5154% based on a bid of 17.45 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.45-98, 2×13. Day’s range of 16.25-17.99.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +11.4466% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.63% based on a bid of 15.87 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.87-00, 4×5. Day’s range of 14.53-15.87.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +13.1835% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.52% based on a bid of 15.11 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.11-39, 1×4. Day’s range of 14.00-15.11.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 50,525 Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 14.90. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.52% based on a bid of 15.11 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.I FixFloat 45,922 RBC crossed 10,700 at 13.50, then another 10,000 at the same price.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 45,738 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.55% based on a bid of 15.94 and a limitMaturity.
BNA.PR.C SplitShare 42,400 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 19.81% based on a bid of 8.61 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 34,046 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.45% based on a bid of 15.36 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-seven other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: July 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-7-31
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,457.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FixedFloater 2,076.7 8 2.00 4.67% 16.0 37M 4.67%
Floater 1,968.1 3 2.00 4.41% 16.6 72M 4.17%
OpRet 2,080.4 17 1.34 3.92% 4.2 68M 5.00%
SplitShare 2,068.0 15 2.00 5.45% 4.6 57M 5.36%
Interest-Bearing 2,656.9 2 2.00 6.38% 5.2 58M 6.25%
Perpetual-Premium 1,728.9 1 1.00 5.79% 2.3 74M 6.15%
Perpetual-Discount 1,527.2 70 1.25 6.23% 13.6 190M 6.26%
FixedReset 2,032.1 6 1.00 5.05% 4.6 1,172M 5.06%

For Index Revisions during July 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: July 2008.

Publication of index details is embargoed for six months following index date.

Update, 2009-2-3: Index Details

Banking Crisis 2008

Fed Buying up to $500-Billion in MBS

The Federal Reserve has announced:

that it expects to begin operations in early January under the previously announced program to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and that it has selected private investment managers to act as its agents in implementing the program.

Under the MBS purchase program, the Federal Reserve will purchase MBS backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae; the program is being established to support the mortgage and housing markets and to foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally.

Of great interest are the published FAQs:

How will purchases under the agency MBS program be financed?
Purchases will be financed through the creation of additional bank reserves.

It is not clear to me just what this means. Will the Fed be getting a deposit from Treasury, financed by sale of Treasuries? Or will they finance it via a bookkeeping entry, aka “printing money”?

One way or another, watching the Fed’s balance sheet has been a lot more interesting than normal lately!

Update, 2008-12-31: Another interesting thing about this is the lack of duration hedging. Players will often hedge the duration hedging of an MBS portfolio by taking market action in Treasuries and entering fixed-receive swaps:

As a consequence of record levels of refinancing in the second half of 2002 and the first half of 2003–which, by our estimates, encompassed roughly 45 percent of the total value of home mortgages outstanding–MBS duration fell to exceptionally low levels. As mortgage and other long-term rates rebounded last summer, a consequence of rapidly improving economic conditions and the fading of deflationary concerns, refinancing fell sharply, removing most downward pressure on duration. Holders of MBS endeavoring to hedge developing interest rate gaps rapidly shed receive-fixed swaps and Treasuries, and these actions markedly aggravated last summer’s long-term interest rate upturn.

There’s a comment on an unsigned blog:

Credit spreads on corporate debt have generally made yet another explosive move higher, as treasury yields have imploded in the recent blow-off move in government notes and bonds. Note in this context that we have once again a case of ‘unintended consequences’ at work here, as the implosion in treasury yields can be attributed directly to the Fed’s decision to [monetize] $800 bn. in MBS and ABS, forcing duration hedging of large MBS portfolios.

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: June 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-6-30
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,502.3 1 2.00 3.86% 0.08 47M 4.46%
FixedFloater 1,963.4 7 2.00 4.90% 15.7 43M 4.91%
Floater 2,015.5 3 2.00 4.16% 17.1 68M 4.07%
OpRet 2,108.4 17 1.35 3.86% 1.8 70M 4.92%
SplitShare 2,075.6 15 2.00 5.25% 4.0 54M 5.33%
Interest-Bearing 2,662.3 3 2.00 5.05% 0.6 43M 6.13%
Perpetual-Premium 1,763.9 5 1.40 5.67% 3.8 57M 6.03%
Perpetual-Discount 1,585.1 67 1.24 6.01% 13.9 196M 6.00%
FixedReset 2,024.8 5 1.00 5.04% 4.7 2,152M 5.08%

For Index Revisions during June 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: June 2008.

Publication of index details is embargoed for six months following index date.

Update, 2009-01-02: Index Composition, 2008-6-30, Post-Rebalancing

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: May 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-5-30
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,496.5 1 2.00 3.86% 0.08 50M 4.44%
FixedFloater 1,985.5 8 2.00 4.77% 15.8 39M 4.80%
Floater 2,082.4 2 2.00 4.05% 17.2 67M 4.05%
OpRet 2,118.4 15 1.27 3.75% 2.3 73M 4.83%
SplitShare 2,118.8 16 2.00 5.00% 4.0 56M 5.26%
Interest-Bearing 2,638.7 3 2.00 6.40% 5.3 41M 6.12%
Perpetual-Premium 1,789.3 13 1.23 5.69% 3.6 89M 5.84%
Perpetual-Discount 1,675.9 59 1.26 5.65% 14.4 192M 5.66%
FixedReset 2,023.8 1 1.00 4.89% 4.4 1,483M 4.92%

For Index Revisions during May 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: May 2008.

Index Composition 2008-05-30, Post-Rebalancing

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: April 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-4-30
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,470.3 1 2.00 5.02% 15.5 42M 5.00%
FixedFloater 2,030.0 8 2.00 4.85% 15.6 42M 4.69%
Floater 1,883.5 2 2.00 4.51% 16.4 49M 4.48%
OpRet 2,105.2 15 1.27 3.84% 4.4 78M 4.85%
SplitShare 2,088.4 16 2.00 3.84% 4.4 78M 4.85%
Interest-Bearing 2,608.8 3 2.00 6.43% 5.4 45M 6.16%
Perpetual-Premium 1,781.3 9 1.33 5.63% 3.3 52M 5.87%
Perpetual-Discount 1,654.2 63 1.24 5.69% 14.4 193M 5.72%
FixedReset 2,011.8 1 1.00 4.92% 4.4 1,963M 4.95%

For Index Revisions during April 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: April 2008.

Index Composition 2008-04-30, Post-Rebalancing

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: March 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-3-31
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,463.6 2 2.00 5.21% 15.2 37M 5.14%
FixedFloater 1,996.8 8 2.00 5.24% 15.2 51M 4.80%
Floater 1,902.3 2 2.00 4.93% 15.7 52M 4.90%
OpRet 2,099.3 15 1.27 3.92% 3.6 74M 4.85%
SplitShare 2,057.7 16 2.00 5.09% 4.1 88M 5.37%
Interest-Bearing 2,593.8 3 2.00 6.30% 5.5 50M 6.20%
Perpetual-Premium 1,775.1 7 1.42 5.68% 3.7 45M 5.91%
Perpetual-Discount 1,654.0 62 1.25 5.68% 14.4 210M 5.70%
FixedReset 1,988.7 1 1.00 5.03% 15.5 2,800M 5.01%

For Index Revisions during March 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: March 2008.

Index Composition 2008-3-31, Post-Rebalancing

Market Action

December 29, 2008

There is the potential for US Municipals to become even more attractive to taxable US investors:

Congressional Democrats are seeking to expand funding for airport runways, housing projects and sewage-treatment plants through a new tax break for municipal bondholders.

The proposal is designed to make so-called private-activity bonds more attractive by exempting the interest on them from the alternative minimum tax. Richard Neal, chairman of the House Ways and Means subcommittee that drafts tax measures, wants to include the plan in economic recovery legislation that President-elect Barack Obama has made a top priority.

A crazy idea; if implemented it will simply increase distortions in the capital markets.

Accrued Interest points out that Bad liquidity cuts both ways in municipals and the same thing is true (with slightly different mechanical details, of course) in preferreds.

Volume was down sharply to normal levels today and prices were up up UP!, providning one day’s worth of support for the hypothesis that tax loss selling was behind the recent weakness (as pointed out on Financial Webring Forum).

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30.
The Fixed-Reset index was added effective 2008-9-5 at that day’s closing value of 1,119.4 for the Fixed-Floater index.
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 8.39% 8.44% 137,984 12.28 7 +2.2895% 636.3
Floater 7.88% 7.94% 96,153 11.46 2 +1.7925% 413.6
Op. Retract 5.48% 6.07% 172,642 3.94 14 +0.8365% 996.0
Split-Share 6.51% 11.47% 94,035 3.95 15 +2.6499% 955.3
Interest Bearing 9.70% 19.04% 59,461 2.71 3 +5.8627% 774.1
Perpetual-Premium N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Perpetual-Discount 7.84% 7.95% 250,379 11.49 71 +4.0585% 712.4
Fixed-Reset 5.99% 5.00% 1,049,173 14.90 18 +1.3459% 1,009.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset +6.0212%  
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +6.6421% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.81% based on a bid of 14.45 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 14.45-50, 1×2. Day’s range of 13.74-44.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +6.7146% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.51% based on a bid of 13.35 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 13.34-74. Day’s range of 12.61-13.74.
PPL.PR.A SplitShare +6.8551% Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of December 15 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 11.14% based on a bid of 8.09 and a hardMaturity 2012-12-1 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.09-18, 10×2. Day’s range of 7.63-01.
POW.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +7.0656% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.47% based on a bid of 14.85 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 14.85-89, 6×12. Day’s range of 14.39-91.
NA.PR.M PerpetualDiscount +7.3043% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.27% based on a bid of 18.51 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 18.51-15, 3×1. Day’s range of 18.00-19.14.
RY.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +7.3171% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.22% based on a bid of 15.84 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.84-99, 1×10. Day’s range of 15.21-75.
CM.PR.P PerpetualDiscount +7.6779% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.00% based on a bid of 17.25 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.25-54, 2×9. Day’s range of 16.96-70.
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +8.3736% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.35% based on a bid of 13.46 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 13.46-95, 1×7. Day’s range of 12.53-13.95.
WFS.PR.A SplitShare +8.8235% Asset coverage of 1.2-:1 as of December 18 according to Mulvihill. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 12.44% based on a bid of 8.51 and a hardMaturity 2011-6-30 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.51-93, 20×1. Day’s range of 8.47-74.
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +9.1405% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.07% based on a bid of 16.00 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 16.00-17.10 (!) 6×10. Day’s range of 14.92-17.35 (!).
BNA.PR.C SplitShare +11.8265% Asset coverage of 1.6+:1 based on BAM.A at 16.81 and 2.4 BAM.A per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 20.00% based on a bid of 8.51 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00. Closing quote of 8.51-00, 48×20. Day’s range of 8.00-9.00.
FIG.PR.A InterestBearing +13.8258% Asset coverage of 1.0+:1 based on a capital unit NAV of 0.14 as of December 24 and 0.71 Capital Units per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 17.33% based on a bid of 6.01 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-31 at 10.00. Closing quote of 6.01-49, 3×1. Day’s range of 5.85-25.
BAM.PR.J OpRet +15.5704% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 14.32% based on a bid of 13.88 and a softMaturity 2018-3-30. Closing quote of 13.88-20, 1×5. Day’s range of 13.00-14.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 78,150 TD crossed 47,600 at 15.33. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.89% based on a bid of 15.25 and a limitMaturity.
CIU.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 42,400 Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 15,000, both at 13.30. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.79% based on a bid of 13.32 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 42,400 TD crossed 30,000 at 13.74. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.51% based on a bid of 13.35 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 30,336 TD crossed 17,000 at 14.88. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.79% based on a bid of 14.70 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.O PerpetualDiscount 24,175 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.33% based on a bid of 16.91 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-four other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices : February 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-2-29
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,458.8 2 2.00 5.38% 14.9 37M 5.45%
FixedFloater 1,988.8 8 2.00 5.52% 14.8 66M 4.93%
Floater 1,939.7 2 2.00 5.26% 15.0 69M 5.23%
OpRet 2,102.3 15 1.27 3.66% 1.3 57M 4.81%
SplitShare 2,115.2 16 2.00 4.95% 4.2 67M 5.22%
Interest-Bearing 2,615.8 3 2.00 6.45% 5.5 52M 6.14%
Perpetual-Premium 1,808.5 17 1.41 5.38% 3.8 80M 5.70%
Perpetual-Discount 1,746.5 51 1.21 5.32% 14.9 265M 5.36%

For Index Revisions during February 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: February 2008.

Index Composition 2008-2-29, Post-Rebalancing