New Issues

New Issue : CIBC 4.5% Perpetual

Well, yet another bank leaps into action with a new 4.5% perpetual!

This is actually rather nice, having so many issues that are so similar (SunLife, Scotia, Royal and BMO) … I forsee many happy hours in the years ahead, swapping between them in a low-risk dividend-capture strategy.

Anyway … CIBC is issuing 10-million of these shares (up to another 2-million may be issued) for an issue size of $250-million (up to $300-million). The provisional rating from DBRS is Pfd-1(low); the S&P provisional is P-1(Low).

CIBC 4.5% Perp Ser 32 Redemption Schedule
From To Strike
2012-04-30 2013-04-29 $26.00
2013-04-30 2014-04-29 $25.75
2014-04-30 2015-04-29 $25.50
2015-04-30 2016-04-29 $25.25
2016-04-30 INFINITE DATE $25.00

The anticipated closing date is February 14, 2007

Update & Bump : Let’s look at a few comparables …

Curve Prices (and other info) on CM.PR.? and comparables
Data CM.PR.? CM.PR.I CM.PR.H RY.PR.D
Price due to base-rate 23.83 24.54 24.79 23.96
Price due to short-term 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
Price due to long-term 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34
Price due to Liquidity 1.00 1.03 0.23 1.04
Price due to error 0.03 0.03 0.02 -0.02
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) -0.71 -0.73 -0.71 NA
Curve Price $24.60 $24.77 $25.44  $25.43
Quote 2/1 Issue
$25.00
25.39-44 25.76-99 25.00-09
Annual Dividend $1.125 $1.175 $1.20 $1.125
After-Tax YTW 3.58% 3.59% 3.45% 3.61%
Pre-Tax YTW 4.50% 4.52% 4.34% 4.55%
Market Action

February 1, 2007

Technical difficulties (like mainly the fact that I have no brains at all and wiped out a few records in files that now have to be rebuilt … if this gets any worse I’m going to condemned to analyzing equities) preclude preparation of the Index Reports for the next few days. This post will be updated in due course. Sorry!

Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.C FixedFloater +1.1041%  
HSB.PR.C PerpetualPremium +1.1236% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.87% based on a bid of $27.00 and a call 2010-7-30 at $26.00
AL.PR.E Floater +1.3717%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
CM.PR.I PerpetualPremium 203,400 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.52% based on a bid of $25.39 and a call 2016-3-1 at $25.00
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 172,524 Recent new issue. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.53% based on a bid of $24.96 and a limitMaturity
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 59,550 Recent new issue. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.53% based on a bid of $24.96 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualPremium 29,090 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.43% based on a bid of $25.75 and a call 2014-10-30 at $25.00.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 28,975 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.58% based on a bid of $24.77 and a limitMaturity.

There were ten other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

Update, finally!

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.03% 4.03% 27,943 17.39 1 +0.1603% 1,039.5
Fixed-Floater 4.82% 3.58% 108,216 6.36 7 +0.1919% 1,040.4
Floater 4.46% -24.77% 59,009 6.60 5 +0.2230% 1,051.4
Op. Retract 4.72% 2.49% 75,761 2.10 18 -0.0205% 1,027.1
Split-Share 5.15% -0.40% 284,727 2.53 13 +0.0263% 1,044.4
Interest Bearing 6.65% 6.08% 67,549 4.71 7 -0.0275% 1,032.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.04% 4.07% 242,162 4.99 51 +0.0838% 1,051.4
Perpetual-Discount 4.55% 4.58% 973,833 16.24 9 +0.0627% 1,053.6
Issue Comments

Great-West Spends CAD 4.6-Billion! Implications for Prefs?

It has been announced that Great-West will aquire Putnam Investments for CAD 4.6-Billion.

In response, DBRS has placed the entire corporate structure on credit review with developing implications: GWO (which includes CL and GWL), PWF and POW.

Standard & Poors has taken a much more nonchalant approach, affirming the current ratings.

According to GWO:

Funding for the transaction will come from internal resources as well as from proceeds of an issue of Lifeco common shares of no more than CDN $1.2 billion, the issuance of debentures and hybrids, a bank credit facility, and an acquisition tax benefit securitization.

This transaction might possibly explain the mystery of CL.PR.B, which has still not been called. If they have to push through a lot of net issuance, they’re probably not too enthusiastic about calling the old stuff – CL.PR.B has 6-million shares outstanding, so redeeming it at $26.00 would add $156-million to the amount of gross issuance required.

Similarly, it is possible that the resources devoted to the GWO.PR.E / GWO.PR.X Issuer Bid will be reduced.

For the other companies in the group, the transaction may affect, for instance, the chance of PWF.PR.J being redeemed early.

One may take a lot of views and play with a lot of scenarios. Me, I’m just going to assume, as always, that the worst scenario – in life, love and investing – is most likely.

Programme Changes

HIMIPref™ Programming : Active Portfolio Holdings Report Improvement

Users are encouraged to click “Holdings” on the mainMenu|reports|activePortfolio subMenu every now and then, just to double-check that the transactionFile and holdingsFile are properly synchronized.

This routine has been improved by introduction of a more stable “Wait Cursor” while the transaction file is being evaluated and compared – users will then be aware that they are not supposed to be banging buttons and cursing the programme during the process.

As this is such a small and cosmetic improvement, I will not upload the new version of HIMIPref™ to prefshares.com for client download. The enhancement will be included next time I do upload a substantive improvement.

Documentation

HIMIPref™ Documentation : PortfolioInputBox

The user manual page portfolioInputBox has been upgraded slightly … there was a problem in which the programme appeared to be frozen, but – as far as I can make out – the commissionInputBox was not visible, although it was expecting input. The visible commissionReportBox was not accepting input.

Should such a thing happen, the commissionReportBox should simply be moved to another area of the monitor screen. The commissionInputBox will then be visible AND accepting input.

Market Action

January 31, 2007

Technical difficulties (like mainly the fact that I have no brains at all and wiped out a few records in files that now have to be rebuilt … if this gets any worse I’m going to condemned to analyzing equities) preclude preparation of the Index Reports for the next few days. This post will be updated in due course. Sorry!

Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
TOC.PR.B Floater -2.1805% Just like yesterday, except this loss was on volume of 300 shares on two trades, both at $26.60. This volatility has been with us since the ridiculous volatility of January 26, but now that it’s closed at $26.02-60, 5×12, things may be back to normal. The closing quote on January 25 was 25.91-84.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 128,955 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.58% based on a bid of $24.76 and a limitMaturity
PWF.PR.J OpRet 104,450 Desjardins crossed 59,000 at 26.90, then another 38,000 at the same price. Now with a rather unattractive pre-tax bid-YTW of 2.35% based on a bid of $26.74 and a call 2008-5-30 at $26.00. I discussed this issue recently … I don’t really understand why anybody would pay such fancy prices in size …. but I suppose the buyer is firmly focussed on the 3.51% pre-tax bid-YTW resulting if the issue survives until its softMaturity 2013-7-30 at $25.00
PWF.PR.K PerpetualPremium 102,600 Scotia crossed two tranches of 50,000 shares, both at $26.05. I like this Power Financial issue much better! Pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.40% based on a bid of $25.95 and a call 2014-11-30 at $25.00.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualPremium 74,800 Nesbitt crossed 53,700 at $24.90. Yes, it’s in the PerpetualPremium index now, sure, but it will be in the PerpetualDiscount index after the indices are rebalanced. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.56% based on a bid of $24.90 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.B PerpetualPremium 62,570 National Bank crossed 10,000 at 25.32, then another 40,000 at the same price. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.54% based on a call 2014-4-18 at $25.00

There were fourteen other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

Update, finally!

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.04% 4.04% 29,090 17.38 1 0.00% 1,037.8
Fixed-Floater 4.83% 3.67% 81,160 8.38 7 -0.1845% 1,038.4
Floater 4.54% -22.04% 64,084 4.63 4 -0.6029% 1,049.1
Op. Retract 4.70% 2.23% 79,245 2.18 17 -0.0950% 1,027.3
Split-Share 5.06% -0.08% 341,679 2.81 11 +0.0876% 1,044.1
Interest Bearing 6.72% 6.11% 71,367 4.48 6 -0.1703% 1,033.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.02% 4.02% 261,859 5.75 56 +0.0305% 1,050.6
Perpetual-Discount 4.52% 4.53% 1,343,838 16.30 5 -0.0804% 1,052.9
New Issues

New Issue : NB Split Corp 4.75% Retractible

NB Split Corp. announced today (via CCN Matthews) that “it has filed and received a receipt dated January 30, 2007, from the securities regulators of all the Canadian provinces, for the final prospectus for the initial public offering of Capital Shares and Preferred Shares of the Company”.

This is not an issue that I intend to add to the HIMIPref™ database as I do not think the preferred shares will be tradeable for long. This is irritation, because NB Split has a spiffy website, but the terms of the prefs are not quite so spiffy.

They carry a 4.75% annual dividend and have been provisionally rated Pfd-2(low) by DBRS. Closing of the offering should be on or about February 22, 2007, and the company intends to wind up Feb 15, 2012. So far so good.

BUT there is an annual redemption at par in order to match the number of Capital Units retracted as a “Special Annual Retraction”. And there are no provisions to halt (admittedly skimpy) distributions to the Capital Unitholder Scum if asset coverage declines below a threshold.

Given the high coupon attached to these things, I suggest that immediately upon issue they will rise in price to a premium above par that will leave the currentYield at an attractive level while leaving the yieldToWorst at an unattractive level. They will, at such levels, contain a huge amount of call risk – great to hold, as long as they don’t get called!

Mind you, anybody able to sweet-talk their broker into giving them an allocation of the prefs at par without having to buy Capital Units should make some good money from the flip. Send me the name of your broker!

So, unless captured by a band of marauding clients and tortured, I do not intend to add these shares to the HIMIPref™ database.

Data Changes

New Symbols for BC.PR.A / BC.PR.B / BC.PR.C / BC.PR.D / BC.PR.E

As noted in this Blog and on the BCE Website, all the captioned Bell Canada preferreds will be exchanged for BCE Inc. Preferreds. The only thing you don’t know is the effective date and new symbols. Until now.

BC / BCE Ticker Change
Series Old Ticker Old Security Code New Ticker New Security Code
15 BC.PR.A BCE.PR.E
17 BC.PR.B A38006 BCE.PR.G A39014
19 BC.PR.C A38005 BCE.PR.I A39016
16 BC.PR.D BCE.PR.F
18 BC.PR.E A38007 BCE.PR.H A39015

The new symbols are effective for trading Thursday February 1, 2007.

I’ll add columns for the old and new securityCodes later, when I process the reorgDataEntries.

Update 2007-02-01 : Table has been  updated.

New Issues

New Issue: Canadian Financials & Utilities Split Corp. 4.25% Retractible

This is a new split share sponsored by Connor, Clark & Lunn Capital Markets that invests mainly in … Financials & Utilities! Mind you, about one-quarter of the indicative portfolio is REITs, but the sponsor considers them to be financial issuers and notes that they are part of the S&P/TSX Financial Sub-Index.

This split has an innovative Leveraging/De-Leveraging mechanism. If they make all kinds of money in the investment portfolio, leverage will necessarily decline. To counteract this they will, “subject to confirmation at the time from DBRS that the Pfd-1 rating of the Preferred Shares will not be impacted”, go out and borrow money to restore their leveraging factor. Conversely, if they don’t do so well, they will sell off securities so that the portfolio has cash & equivalents equal to the redemption value of the Preferred Shares.

For example, if the value of the Portfolio were to fall to approximately $15.50 per Unit … the Leverage Agent would proceed to sell Portfolio Securities having a value of $10 (for each Unit) and would invest the proceeds in cash and cash equivalents. At such time, the aggregate NAV of the Class A Shares (approximately $5.50 per Class A Share) would continue to be fully invested in the Portfolio. If the NAV per Class A Share thereafter grew to approximately $7.37, the Leverage Agent would, upon instructions from the Manager, sell the cash equivalents and the Manager would re-invest the cash and proceeds from the sale of cash equivalents in securities of the Portfolio.

A de-leveraging event will also occur in the event that the Interest Coverage Ratio is less than 1.5 for any calendar quarter. The estimated Interest Coverage Ratio at inception is approximately 1.64

As noted above, the Preferred Shares have been provisionally rated Pfd-1 by DBRS. 

There are the usual provisions for Monthly Retraction (very expensive, for idiots only) and Annual Concurrent Retraction (get the NAV for each unit [Capital Unit & Preferred] submitted, less costs). The preferreds are not callable – Capital Unit Holders wishing to redeem must either buy one themselves or get the company to do it in the marketplace for them. This is a very good feature – even better than declining call premia – and I like it!

The Preferred Shares will be redeemed by the Company on January 31, 2012. 

Anticipated closing is February 6, or a later date to be agreed by the Company and Agents that is on or before February 28.

I have not yet subjected this issue to a thorough analysis, but will post such analysis when I have done so. However, the preferred shares look very attractive at the offer price of $10.00 … 4.25% is hard to come by for any retractible, and these are Pfd-1. At the Ontario Equivalency Factor (Fat Cat Version) of 1.4, this is equivalent to a five year bond paying 5.95%.

The only downside is liquidity: A maximum of 5-million shares at $10 is being issued, so it’s not the biggest gorilla in the zoo. Still, given the redemption provisions, there should be sufficient liquidity for reasonable and patient investors for the term of the shares.

A hat-tip to the reader who brought this to my attention!

Update, 2007-02-05 According to the TSX, this will commence trading 2007-02-06 with the symbol CFS.PR.A