Market Action

December 31, 2014

Nothing happened today.

The Canadian preferred share market closed the year on a very strong note, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 52bp, FixedResets up 42bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 23bp. The Performance Highlights Table is suitably enormous, with a large complement of winners from the credit-nervous ENB. Volume was tiny.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:

  • based on Implied Volatility Theory only
  • are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
  • assume constant GOC-5 yield
  • assume constant Implied Volatility
  • assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_141231
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So according to this, TRP.PR.A, bid at 20.65, is $1.67 cheap, but it has already reset (at +192). TRP.PR.C, bid at 21.50 and resetting at +154bp on 2016-1-30 is $1.79 rich.

impVol_MFC_141231
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Today’s fine performance (+2.01%!) has brought MFC.PR.F back to the line defined by its peers. Implied Volatility continues to be a conundrum. It is far too high if we consider that NVCC rules will never apply to these issues; it is still too low if we consider them to be NVCC non-compliant issues (and therefore with Deemed Maturities in the call schedule).

impVol_BAM_141231
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There continues to be cheapness in the lowest-spread issue, BAM.PR.X, resetting at +180bp on 2017-6-30, which is bid at 21.16 and appears to be $0.81 cheap, while BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp 2016-6-30 is bid at 25.25 and appears to be $1.11 rich.

It seems clear that the higher-spread issues define a curve with significantly more Implied Volatility than is calculated when the low-spread outlier is included.
impVol_FTS_141231

This is just weird because the middle is expensive and the ends are cheap but anyway … FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp, and bid at 19.09, looks $1.05 cheap and resets 2015-6-1. FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 25.42, looks $1.03 expensive and resets 2019-3-1

pairs_FR_141231
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Pairs equivalence is all over the map, but will probably converge as volumes increase in the new year.

And that’s it for another year!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4579 % 2,510.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4579 % 3,974.9
Floater 3.02 % 3.09 % 63,986 19.48 4 -0.4579 % 2,669.0
OpRet 4.41 % -1.83 % 23,195 0.08 2 0.0000 % 2,752.0
SplitShare 4.26 % 4.04 % 34,192 3.67 5 0.0626 % 3,209.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,516.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.44 % -4.91 % 65,647 0.09 20 0.1942 % 2,493.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.14 % 5.04 % 107,501 15.32 15 0.5221 % 2,681.8
FixedReset 4.17 % 3.57 % 231,565 8.46 77 0.4168 % 2,567.4
Deemed-Retractible 4.94 % -1.38 % 91,140 0.09 40 0.2297 % 2,633.9
FloatingReset 2.63 % -3.31 % 61,235 0.08 6 -1.9589 % 2,501.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.01
Evaluated at bid price : 19.01
Bid-YTW : 2.78 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.88
Evaluated at bid price : 24.04
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.71
Evaluated at bid price : 23.52
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.62
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 26.44
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 2.93 %
ENB.PR.P FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.66
Evaluated at bid price : 23.62
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 17.92
Evaluated at bid price : 17.92
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.54
Bid-YTW : 2.80 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.85
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.79
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
ENB.PF.C FixedReset 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.97
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.01
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 21.99
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
ENB.PR.J FixedReset 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 23.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 24.47
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 24.49
Evaluated at bid price : 24.92
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
ENB.PR.T FixedReset 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.58
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
ENB.PF.A FixedReset 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 24.35
Evaluated at bid price : 24.77
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 2.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 3.49 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.P FixedReset 100,450 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.93
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 41,518 ITG (who?) bought blocks of 19,400 and 19,100 from Nesbitt, both at 24.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 24.35
Evaluated at bid price : 24.77
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 37,025 Newly exchanged from TRP.PR.A.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.26
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 32,700 Nesbitt crossed 31,700 at 25.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 32,025 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
ENB.PF.E FixedReset 13,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.98
Evaluated at bid price : 24.56
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
There were 0 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PVS.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 25.65 – 30.00
Spot Rate : 4.3500
Average : 2.3280

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 19.01 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 0.9900
Average : 0.7269

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.01
Evaluated at bid price : 19.01
Bid-YTW : 2.78 %

BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.43 – 22.02
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.4210

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.43
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 25.21 – 25.74
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.4173

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 23.24
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %

CU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 25.87 – 26.60
Spot Rate : 0.7300
Average : 0.6227

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.87
Bid-YTW : 2.66 %

ENB.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 22.46 – 22.82
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2564

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.46
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %

Issue Comments

AZP.PR.C Weakly Bid On Zero Volume

There are now about 1.66-million shares of AZP.PR.C outstanding following a 42% conversion from AZP.PR.B – which are going to be a nightmare for novices to trace, since this was issued as EPP.PR.B, then changed to CZP.PR.B, then changed to AZP.PR.B and finally converted to AZP.PR.C.

AZP.PR.C is a FloatingReset, paying the three-month bill rate +418bp, reset quarterly. It is convertible back to AZP.PR.B on 2019-12-31 at the option of the holder.

This issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps subindex on credit concerns.

The Toronto Stock Exchange reports no volume on its debut.

Vital statistics are:

AZP.PR.C FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 12.50
Evaluated at bid price : 12.50
Bid-YTW : 10.22 %

The Pair Equivalency of AZP.PR.C to its FixedReset sibling AZP.PR.B shows it to be very cheaply bid at 12.50, compared to the 13.30 bid on the latter issue; but given that there was no volume at all and that the quote was 12.50-14.00, no real conclusions can be drawn. At the bid prices, three-month bills need only average 0.42% over the next five years to achieve equivalent total returns.

pairs_FR_141231
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Issue Comments

FFH.PR.D Richly Priced On Debut

There are now about 4.0-million shares of FFH.PR.D outstanding following a 40% conversion from FFH.PR.C.

FFH.PR.D is a FloatingReset, paying the three-month bill rate +315bp, reset quarterly. It is convertible back to FFH.PR.C on 2019-12-31 at the option of the holder.

This issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps subindex on credit concerns.

The Toronto Stock Exchange reports 29,200 shares trading on its debut in a very wide range of 22.60-23.99 (!) before closing at 23.87-25.

Vital statistics are:

FFH.PR.D FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 23.40
Evaluated at bid price : 23.87
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %

The Pair Equivalency of FFH.PR.D to its FixedReset sibling FFH.PR.C shows it to be expensive at 23.87, compared to the 22.75 bid on the latter issue. At the bid prices, three-month bills will have to average 2.55% over the next five years to achieve equivalent total returns.

pairs_FR_141231
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Issue Comments

TRP.PR.F Extremely Rich On Opening Day

There are now about 12.0-million shares of TRP.PR.F outstanding following a 57% conversion from TRP.PR.A.

TRP.PR.F is a FloatingReset, paying the three-month bill rate +192bp, reset quarterly. It is convertible back to TRP.PR.A on 2019-12-31 at the option of the holder.

This issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FloatingReset subindex.

The Toronto Stock Exchange reports 37,925 shares trading on its debut in a range of 22.41-85 before closing at 22.26-75.

Vital statistics are:

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.26
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %

The Pair Equivalency of TRP.PR.F to its FixedReset sibling TRP.PR.A shows it to be very rich at 22.26, compared to the 20.65 bid on the latter issue; but potential sellers in retail won’t have received access to their shares yet. At the bid prices, three-month bills will have to average 2.89% over the next five years to achieve equivalent total returns.

pairs_FR_141231
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I must emphasize that the headline judgement of “extremely rich” applies only within the TRP.PR.A / TRP.PR.F pair: with a yield to perpetuity of 3.11%, the issue looks reasonably priced, if not a little cheap, against other investment-grade Floating Rate perpetuals (BAM.PR.B, BAM.PR.C, BAM.PR.K and PWF.PR.A). Note that the only other investment grade FloatingResets at this time are NVCC non-compliant banks; the presumption of a Deemed Maturity makes them not particularly comparable to TRP.PR.F.

Better Communication, Please!

AZP.PR.B / AZP.PR.C Conversion Results Known, Maybe

Atlantic Power can’t be bothered to issue a press release or otherwise indicate on their website just what the results of the recent conversion option were, but there is information available on TMXMoney, maybe.

According to the TMX Money page for AZP.PR.C (the FloatingReset), there are 1,661,906 shares outstanding. They are reporting 2,338,094 AZP.PR.B outstanding, which miraculously (considering it’s the Toronto Stock Exchange doing the reporting) adds up to the 4-million EPP.PR.B issued in 2009, which became CZP.PR.B, which became AZP.PR.B.

So that’s a conversion rate of about 42%. In my post just before the decision deadline, I recommended conversion.

Better Communication, Please!

FFH.PR.C / FFH.PR.D Conversion Results Known, Maybe

Fairfax can’t be bothered to issue a press release or otherwise indicate on their website just what the results of the recent conversion option were, but there is information available on TMXMoney, maybe.

According to the TMX Money page for FFH.PR.D (the FloatingReset), there are 3,983,616 shares outstanding. They are still reporting 10-million FFH.PR.C outstanding, which was the amount outstanding prior to conversion, but we’ll just assume that, well, you know, Toronto Stock Exchange.

So that’s a conversion rate of about 40%. In my post just before the decision deadline, I recommended conversion.

Issue Comments

TRP.PR.A / TRP.PR.F Conversion Results Announced

TransCanada Corporation has announced:

that 12,501,577 of its 22,000,000 fixed rate Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series 1 (Series 1 Shares) were tendered for conversion today, on a one-for-one basis into floating-rate Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series 2 (Series 2 Shares). As a result of the conversion TransCanada has 9,498,423 Series 1 Shares and 12,501,577 Series 2 Shares issued and outstanding. The Series 1 Shares will continue to be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol TRP.PR.A. The Series 2 Shares will begin trading on the TSX today under the symbol TRP.PR.F

The Series 1 Shares will continue to pay on a quarterly basis, for the five-year period beginning on December 31, 2014, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TransCanada, a fixed dividend based on an annual fixed dividend rate of 3.266 per cent.

The Series 2 Shares will pay a floating quarterly dividend for the five-year period beginning on December 31, 2014, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TransCanada. The floating quarterly dividend rate for the Series 2 Shares for the first quarterly floating rate period (being the period from December 31, 2014 to but excluding March 31, 2015) is 2.815 per cent and will be reset every quarter.

For more information on the terms of, and risks associated with an investment in, the Series 1 Shares and the Series 2 Shares, please see the Corporation’s prospectus supplement dated September 22, 2009 which can be found under the Corporation’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

So both the FixedReset TRP.PR.A, with 9.5-million shares outstanding, and the FloatingReset TRP.PR.F (12.5-million) are good-sized, liquid issues, which is a good result for trading purposes.

In my post immediately before the conversion deadline, I had recommended conversion to the FloatingReset, TRP.PR.F.

Market Action

December 30, 2014

Kevin Carmichael of the Centre for International Governance Innovation writes a piece in the Globe titled Canada’s monetary authority lacks American commitment to transparency:

The Bank of Canada believes transcripts and minutes would degrade the quality of debate by making policy makers conscious of an external audience. There also is a belief that since the Governing Council exists by convention, and that it is the governor who is responsible for monetary policy under the Bank of Canada Act, an official record of the policy committee’s meetings is unnecessary. “There are no votes; instead, the Governing Council works toward a consensus viewpoint,” Rebeca Ryall, a media relations officer at the Bank of Canada, said in an e-mail. “This process allows for a frank discussion where Governing Council members are free to challenge one another and push the boundaries of the debate in order to arrive at a decision they are all comfortable with.”

In other words, the members of Governing Council are such pathetic little twerps they will burst into tears if they are contradicted in public. Though I will admit there are other possibilities: the meetings either don’t happen at all, or are closely supervised by a few functionaries from the Ministry of Finance casually wielding rubber hoses.

Mr. Carmichael’s article references a paper by Kevin Warsh titled Transparency and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which includes the following three charts:

centralBankTransparencyTrend
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centralBankTransparencyScoring
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centralBankTransparencyProcedural
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I will be pleased to concede that the scoring is highly subjective and I will also cheerfully admit that it will be very difficult to prove to a determined skeptic that transparency is a good proxy or predictor for quality of the Bank’s decisions or the effectiveness of its implementation of policy.

After all, the main reason for transparency is to improve the public’s confidence in, and ability to predict the future course of, the process. If, for instance, one section of the minutes, released after three weeks, were to include the statement “If housing prices go up any more we’re gonna have to kick some ass (growls of approbation)“, then I suggest that would probably count as pretty good jawboning and result in very good transmission of monetary policy – particularly should housing prices go up, followed by a 50bp hike in policy rates at the next meeting.

And, given that the Bank of Canada is out of step with its peers (ranking just above the bottom on the current scoring, whereas in 1998 it ranked just below the top), I suggest that the onus of explanation for the variance from international trends is now with the Bank. If they’ve got a better reason for secrecy than cowardice and total lack of intellectual talent, let’s hear it.

Anyway, Assiduous Readers will recognize this as a long-term PrefBlog gripe, last voiced October 30, 2014, when the CDHowe Institute advocated the publication of minutes with particular emphasis on disclosure of dissenting views.

A reliable source advises me that 12,501,577 shares (of 22-million outstanding, or 57%) of TRP.PR.A have been converted to TRP.PR.F, its corresponding FloatingReset. I can’t confirm this on the company site, SEDAR, or the TSX site as yet, but will issue a full post when the company decides to let its investors know what’s going on.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 5bp, FixedResets gaining 15bp and DeemedRetractibles flat. Volatility continued to be both high and dominated by familiar issues, with ENB issues prominent on the upside, continuing a recovery from the probably credit induced downturn experienced earlier this month. Volume was many adjectives low.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_141230
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So according to this, TRP.PR.A, bid at 20.58, is $1.36 cheap, but it has already reset (at +192). TRP.PR.C, bid at 20.35 and resetting at +154bp on 2016-1-30 is $0.98 rich.

impVol_MFC_141230
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MFC.PR.F has wandered off into its own little cheap world again, bid at 21.30 to be $0.50 cheap according to the calculation. It resets 2016-6-19 at +141bp. Implied Volatility continues to be a conundrum. It is far too high if we consider that NVCC rules will never apply to these issues; it is still too low if we consider them to be NVCC non-compliant issues (and therefore with Deemed Maturities in the call schedule).

impVol_BAM_141230
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There continues to be cheapness in the lowest-spread issue, BAM.PR.X, resetting at +180bp on 2017-6-30, which is bid at 20.99 and appears to be $0.72 cheap, while BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp 2016-6-30 is bid at 25.00 and appears to be $1.10 rich.

It seems clear that the higher-spread issues define a curve with significantly more Implied Volatility than is calculated when the low-spread outlier is included.

impVol_FTS_141230
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This is just weird because the middle is expensive and the ends are cheap but anyway … FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp, and bid at 18.95, looks $1.16 cheap and resets 2015-6-1. FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 25.40, looks $1.17 expensive and resets 2019-3-1

pairs_FR_141230
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The average break-even rate has declined from 1.80%-2.00% at the time recent conversion decisions were made to a current very wide range of (mostly) 1.50%-1.70%. This decline means that the estimated profit on TRP.PR.A conversion has declined from $0.48 to a mere $0.16 (at the lower end of the range, 1.50%).

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2439 % 2,522.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2439 % 3,993.2
Floater 3.01 % 3.09 % 64,530 19.48 4 0.2439 % 2,681.3
OpRet 4.41 % -2.45 % 23,304 0.08 2 0.0000 % 2,752.0
SplitShare 4.26 % 3.82 % 35,583 3.67 5 0.1600 % 3,207.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,516.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.45 % -4.62 % 67,395 0.08 20 -0.0118 % 2,488.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.17 % 5.06 % 107,827 15.32 15 -0.0538 % 2,667.9
FixedReset 4.20 % 3.59 % 239,893 8.34 77 0.1462 % 2,556.8
Deemed-Retractible 4.95 % 0.27 % 91,755 0.16 40 -0.0010 % 2,627.9
FloatingReset 2.55 % 1.89 % 63,753 3.41 5 0.2435 % 2,551.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.91
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 23.85
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 23.24
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 24.06
Evaluated at bid price : 24.48
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.21
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %
ENB.PF.G FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 23.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.58
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.46
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.54
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
ENB.PR.J FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.93
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
ENB.PF.E FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 24.64
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
ENB.PF.C FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.84
Evaluated at bid price : 24.18
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
ENB.PR.P FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.52
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.58
Evaluated at bid price : 23.27
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
ENB.PR.T FixedReset 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.08
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.77
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
ENB.PR.B FixedReset 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.58
Evaluated at bid price : 23.11
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.74
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 22.70
Evaluated at bid price : 23.55
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 2.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 17.70
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 4.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 21.01
Evaluated at bid price : 21.01
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.P FixedReset 129,200 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.86
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 79,440 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.92
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 17,755 RBC crossed 10,000 at 21.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 15,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 21.01
Evaluated at bid price : 21.01
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 14,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
BMO.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 12,170 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : -5.34 %
There were 6 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.35 – 24.95
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.3944

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %

FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.25 – 24.80
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.3638

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 23.85
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 21.91 – 22.38
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3026

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.91
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %

GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.65 – 26.10
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.2936

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %

RY.PR.L FixedReset Quote: 26.21 – 26.55
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2103

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.21
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.48 – 24.90
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2929

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-30
Maturity Price : 24.06
Evaluated at bid price : 24.48
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %

Issue Comments

FCS.PR.C Settles Firm On Good Volume

Faircourt Asset Management has announced (although not yet on their websit):

Faircourt Asset Management Inc., the manager of Faircourt Split Trust (the “Trust”) (TSX: FCS.UN; FCS.PR.B), is pleased to announce that the Trust has completed a public offering (the “Offering”) of 1,500,000 6.00% preferred securities due June 30, 2019 (the “Preferred Securities”) at a price of $10.00 per Preferred Security. The Offering raised gross proceeds of $15,000,000.

The Preferred Securities commence trading today on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “FCS.PR.C”.

The syndicate of agents for the Offering was co-led by National Bank Financial Inc. and CIBC, and includes Canaccord Genuity Corp., GMP Securities L.P. and Raymond James Ltd.

The net proceeds of the Offering of Preferred Securities will be used to fund the redemption of the 6.25% preferred securities of the Trust which mature on December 31, 2014 (the “6.25% Preferred Securities”). As the Offering has been completed without any matched Preferred Securities and trust units of the Trust being issued, there are insufficient proceeds to fully repay the aggregate principal amount of the outstanding 6.25% Preferred Securities (the “6.25% Outstanding Principal”) from the proceeds of the Offering. The balance of the 6.25% Outstanding Principal will be funded by the Trust through cash currently held by the Trust and the sale of securities from the portfolio of securities held by the Trust. Payment of the 6.25% Outstanding Principal will be made to holders of the 6.25 Preferred Securities in accordance with the provisions of the trust indenture and first supplemental indenture governing the 6.25% Preferred Securities.

For further information about the Offering, please contact: Faircourt Asset Management Inc. at (416) 364-8989 or 1-800-831-0304 or visit our website at www.faircourtassetmgt.com.

This issue has been rated Pfd-3(low) by DBRS:

The Trust has advised DBRS that the initial downside protection available to holders of the 6.00% Preferred Securities is expected to be approximately 36.7% after the payment of all issuance expenses. The downside protection is provided by the Trust Units. Dividends received on the Portfolio will be used to pay a fixed cumulative quarterly distribution to holders of the 6.00% Preferred Securities, while holders of the Trust Units are expected to receive a monthly distribution of $0.02. Based on the current dividend yield on the Portfolio as of December 17, 2014, the 6.00% Preferred Securities dividend coverage ratio is expected to be approximately 0.02 times.

According to the terms of the Trust’s Declaration of Trust, the Trust has the ability to borrow up to 10% of Total Assets (as defined in the Declaration of Trust) under a loan facility in order to meet its investment objectives. Under the terms of the Company’s Trust Indenture, the loan facility is considered Senior Indebtedness, and all amounts owing under the loan facility will be paid in priority to the 6.00% Preferred Securities. There is currently no loan facility in place and therefore, there are currently no amounts owing under a loan facility; however, to the extent that the Trust borrows under a loan facility, the rating on the 6.00% Preferred Securities could be negatively impacted. DBRS will continue to monitor the situation in connection with the ongoing surveillance of the rating on the 6.00% Preferred Securities, and will take appropriate ratings action as necessary.

The DBRS release is largely a copy-paste of their provisional release reported on PrefBlog.

FCS.PR.C will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but assigned to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

There are two items of particular interest in the prospectus, which Faircourt cannot be bothered to publish on their website and which is available on SEDAR via “Faircourt Split Trust Dec 22 2014 12:50:39 ET Final short form prospectus – English PDF 382 K”. A direct link is not permitted because the Alberta Securities Commission does not believe retail scum should have convenient access to public documents.

Asset Coverage Test

The Trust Indenture and the Declaration of Trust provide that the Trust may not make any cash distributions on the Units if, after giving effect to the proposed distribution, the Total Assets less the amount outstanding under the Loan Facility equals less than 1.4 times the principal amount of the 6.00% Preferred Securities then outstanding.

Redemption of 6.00% Preferred Securities by the Trust

6.00% Preferred Securities may be redeemed in whole or in part by the Trust upon notice to 6.00% Preferred Securityholders in accordance with the Trust Indenture at any time that the aggregate principal amount outstanding of the 6.00% Preferred Securities exceeds 40% of the Total Assets. All 6.00% Preferred Securities then outstanding will be redeemed by the Trust at maturity or immediately prior to the termination of the Trust, if earlier. The 6.00% Preferred Securities would, in any such case, be redeemed at par, plus any accrued but unpaid interest.

So that’s a NAV Test of 1.4x, inferior to the more usual 1.5x; given that the 36.7% downside protection referred to by DBRS (quoted above) is Asset Coverage of only 1.6-:1, Faircourt might have felt that there wasn’t enough danger space available with a 1.5x NAV Test.

The other highly significant item is that these shares can be redeemed at any time at par; there’s no capital gains potential for these shares at all given current conditions and in general a little more symmetricallity in potential returns is preferred. It will be noted in the vital statistics, below, that the YTW scenario after its first day of trading in an immediate call.

The issue traded 76,995 shares today (consolidated exchanges) in a range of 9.99-09 before closing at 10.01-05. Vital statistics are:

FCS.PR.C Interest-Bearing YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-29
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 10.01
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
Market Action

December 29, 2014

With all the idiotically mandated bonus deferrals, we’re going to see a lot more of this:

Bank of America Corp. maliciously fired a distressed-debt banker to deprive her of a bonus, a Hong Kong judge ruled, awarding Sunny Tadjudin $500,000 after a seven-year legal battle.

Tadjudin’s manager, John Liptak, was determined to fire her despite her improvement in a performance plan, and his malice can be attributed to the bank, High Court Judge Anthony To said in a 141-page ruling issued yesterday. Still, Tadjudin will receive only a fraction of the amount she requested.

Tadjudin, 51, who worked for the bank’s Asian distressed-debt trading group, had sought bonuses totaling $3.7 million after being fired in 2007 following what she said were irrational and arbitrary performance ratings. To ruled against her claims for higher 2005 and 2006 bonuses than she received.

In Canada, of course, we have the example of Scotiabank and David Berry. There is some speculation he will get his due:

How much, if any, of Bank of Nova Scotia’s $55 million legal charge is related to Dave Berry’s $100 million law suit?

Two days back the Bank of Nova Scotia surprised the markets with news that it would be taking a series of charges in the fourth quarter of its recently completed fiscal year. In all there were $451 million of pre-tax charges, which converts to $341 million on an after tax-basis.

One item has attracted particular attention: “Thirdly, the Bank expects to record a legal charge of approximately $55 million related to certain ongoing legal claims in multiple business lines.”

Could that item be related to the $100 million lawsuit filed by David Berry, the bank’s former head of preferred share trading who was terminated more than nine years ago? Berry’s lawsuit – which is slated to trial next year – alleges wrongful dismissal.

The suit also alleges that his termination – at the time he was the highest paid employee at the bank earning a percentage of the profits made by his group – “was the result of blame-shifting, corporate self interest or greed on the part of Scotia Capital and its inadequate internal compliance, training and education procedures.”

It certainly would be nice if those sleaze-bags and ignoramuses at Scotia did the right thing … even ten years later and after umpteen hearings.

The Greek Tragedy is being revived, but there is much less excitement this time:

Investor reaction to the Greek parliament’s failure to pick a president traced the familiar north-south divide. Greek stocks and bonds plunged and markets were buffeted in Italy, Portugal and Spain, while funds flowed into Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and hard-money bastion.

Yet look closer and Italy, the euro zone’s second most-indebted country after Greece, is nowhere near a fiscal calamity. Ten-year borrowing costs are hovering around 2 percent, compared to over 7 percent at the height of the crisis. Bond holders are charging Italy 144 basis points more than Germany to borrow, a far cry from 553 basis points in November 2011.

There were echoes of 2012 in Europe’s political reaction. Back then, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said “we cannot force Greece” to press on with the budget cuts needed to stay in the euro zone, while a German then on the ECB board, Joerg Asmussen, said there was “no alternative” to austerity.

Schaeuble reprised that line in a statement yesterday, saying that tough reforms in Greece were bearing fruit and “they are without any alternative.” Germany will support Greece on its path of reform, he said, though “if Greece chooses a different way, it will become difficult.”

When Greece hurtled toward bankruptcy in early 2010, the European Union had no way of helping countries in need. When Greece toyed with quitting the euro in late 2011, and held a stalemated election in May 2012 before Samaras put together a unity government after a second election six weeks later, it had only a temporary bailout fund.

Now, it has a full-time aid fund in the 500 billion-euro European Stability Mechanism and a central bank tiptoeing — amid opposition from Germany — toward large-scale bond purchases. It also boasts success stories: Ireland, Portugal and Spain have been weaned off financial aid.

The risk is less a splintering of the 18-nation euro zone – – it will become 19 on Jan. 1 when Lithuania joins — than a protracted phase of subpar economic growth that leaves a generation scarred by unemployment and tempted by political extremism, especially in the south.

The trend in robo-advising is getting a boost:

But Wealthsimple, a Toronto startup, is taking the concept [of on-line investing] in precisely the opposite direction. It’s using the Internet as a way to offer up investing that’s not only cheap to manage, but algorithmically steady, safe, and predictable.

The ten-person firm’s idea is to use technology both to cut out the costs of offering traditional investment advice, and to be more agile in automatically managing portfolios. New customers fill out a questionnaire, and are then paired with a certified investment advisor, who works remotely and is available by text, phone, or video chat. (The firm’s one concession to startup trendiness is its insistence on calling its advisors “wealth concierges.”)

The operation is, as far as I can tell, an ETF allocator:

We charge an annual management fee of 0.35-0.50% of assets depending on your account balance. That’s approximately ⅓ the cost of typical advisors in Canada. The only other fee you incur is the very low fee embedded in the investment products in your portfolio (averages is 0.25%) and currency conversion. We have negotiated preferred pricing on both ETF prices and currency of more than 50% and passed along all of those savings to our clients.

Wealthsimple’s management fee covers transactions, rebalancing, advice, and account administration.

Well, it’s bound to come at some point – particularly if trailer fees get banned – but it remains to be seen whether there’s a mass-market comprised of people who don’t mind actually cutting a cheque for their advice. I admit to being a little suspicious of their market timing aspirations:

While we don’t believe in picking stocks or timing the market, we do believe in a thoughtful approach to risks. In the context of the current market environment, there are two primary risks we consider:
•Interest rates
•Market volatility

For the past 30 years, bond investors have been well rewarded as interest rates steadily declined to historic lows (when interest rates go down, bond prices go up). Looking forward, interest rates cannot get much lower. But what will they do?

Interest rate uncertainty carries lots of risk for bond investors. As a result, we use alternatives to bonds wherever possible. For example, we use real estate and dividend stocks which generate income like bonds, but are not as linked to interest rates. We also use a real estate product that is specifically designed to minimize the risk of interest rate uncertainty.

Which brings to mind the question of whether BRICS is actually an asset class or not:

While Chinese and Indian benchmark equity indexes have surged an average 40 percent this year, Russian and Brazilian gauges posted a mean drop of 4.2 percent. The annual divergence is on pace for the biggest since economist Jim O’Neill coined the term in 2001, leaving the combined market capitalization of Chinese and Indian equities $5.2 trillion larger than that of Russia and Brazil, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

At the time BRIC was coined it was useful to describe the broad and increasing importance of the four largest emerging-market economies, but it was never suitable as an investing concept,” Mark Gordon-James, a senior investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, which managed $526 billion at the end of September, said in an interview on Dec. 18 from London.

But worry not! The marketers will soon find another bandwagon!

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 8bp, FixedResets rocketing up 55bp and DeemedRetractibles off 7bp. The Performance Highlights table is suitably lengthy, notable for a high proportion of FixedReset winners, particularly in the names that were hit hard in the early part of the month – ENB, TRP & HSE. But all this was on volume that was pathetically, horribly, awfully, grossly, incredibly low.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:

  • based on Implied Volatility Theory only
  • are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
  • assume constant GOC-5 yield
  • assume constant Implied Volatility
  • assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_141229
Click for Big

So according to this, TRP.PR.A, bid at 20.58, is $1.36 cheap, but it has already reset (at +192). TRP.PR.D, bid at 25.34 and resetting at +238bp on 2019-4-30 is $0.34 rich and TRP.PR.E, bid at 25.55 and resetting at +235bp on 2019-10-30 (two months prior to the next TRP.PR.A reset), is $0.75 rich.

impVol_MFC_141229
Click for Big

There is an excellent fit to theory for the MFC issues, but Implied Volatility continues to be a conundrum. It is far too high if we consider that NVCC rules will never apply to these issues; it is still too low if we consider them to be NVCC non-compliant issues (and therefore with Deemed Maturities in the call schedule).

impVol_BAM_141229
Click for Big

There continues to be cheapness in the lowest-spread issue, BAM.PR.X, resetting at +180bp on 2017-6-30, which is bid at 21.00 and appears to be $0.84 cheap, while BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp 2016-6-30 is bid at 25.25 and appears to be $1.19 rich.

It seems clear that the higher-spread issues define a curve with significantly more Implied Volatility than is calculated when the low-spread outlier is included.

impVol_FTS_141229
Click for Big

This is just weird because the middle is expensive and the ends are cheap but anyway … FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp, and bid at 18.95, looks $1.15 cheap and resets 2015-6-1. FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 25.40, looks $1.12 expensive and resets 2019-3-1

pairsFR_141229
Click for Big

The average break-even rate has declined from 1.80%-2.00% at the time recent conversion decisions were made to a current very wide range of (mostly) 1.40%-1.80%. This decline means that the estimated profit on TRP.PR.A conversion has declined from $0.48 to a mere $0.06 (at the lower end of the range, 1.40%).

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0717 % 2,516.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0717 % 3,983.5
Floater 3.01 % 3.11 % 65,003 19.44 4 -0.0717 % 2,674.8
OpRet 4.41 % -2.14 % 23,257 0.08 2 0.0784 % 2,752.0
SplitShare 4.27 % 4.04 % 35,851 3.68 5 0.0991 % 3,202.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0784 % 2,516.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.45 % -3.90 % 69,028 0.08 20 0.2034 % 2,488.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.16 % 5.04 % 110,633 15.34 15 0.0760 % 2,669.3
FixedReset 4.21 % 3.58 % 243,931 8.37 77 0.5527 % 2,553.0
Deemed-Retractible 4.95 % 0.70 % 92,530 0.16 40 -0.0660 % 2,627.9
FloatingReset 2.56 % 1.93 % 63,553 3.41 5 -0.0785 % 2,545.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.34
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 2.75 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 24.05
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.38
Evaluated at bid price : 22.94
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.92
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.23
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
ENB.PF.A FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.89
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
ENB.PF.G FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.91
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
ENB.PR.T FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.16
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 17.24
Evaluated at bid price : 17.24
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.57
Evaluated at bid price : 22.86
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.58
Evaluated at bid price : 23.42
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.40
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
ENB.PF.E FixedReset 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.42
Evaluated at bid price : 23.05
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
ENB.PR.H FixedReset 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 21.11
Evaluated at bid price : 21.11
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 21.24
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
ENB.PR.B FixedReset 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.33
Evaluated at bid price : 22.72
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 20.13
Evaluated at bid price : 20.13
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.34
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 23.35
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 3.62 %
ENB.PR.P FixedReset 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 23.03
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 2.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 20.58
Evaluated at bid price : 20.58
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 4.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.C FixedReset 59,200 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 28,300 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 23.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.89
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 22,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 19,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 16,895 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 23.33
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 14,440 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 23.32
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
There were 1 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PR.R Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.21 – 26.84
Spot Rate : 0.6300
Average : 0.3819

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-28
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.21
Bid-YTW : -5.46 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.02 – 24.60
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.3506

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %

GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.30 – 24.82
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3365

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %

MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.34 – 23.79
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.3131

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.34
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %

RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.67 – 26.04
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2388

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.67
Bid-YTW : 1.27 %

ENB.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 23.92 – 24.30
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2515

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-12-29
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 23.92
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %