Archive for November, 2009

November 24, 2009

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

A good solid day for preferred shares with both PerpetualDiscounts and FixedResets gaining 10bp on moderate volume.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5059 % 1,507.7
FixedFloater 6.08 % 4.19 % 42,183 18.56 1 -0.4449 % 2,564.4
Floater 2.59 % 3.02 % 89,956 19.62 3 0.5059 % 1,883.6
OpRet 4.81 % -5.94 % 121,126 0.09 14 0.0273 % 2,306.4
SplitShare 6.35 % -3.04 % 325,499 0.08 2 0.0000 % 2,115.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0273 % 2,109.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.88 % 5.54 % 124,458 2.40 4 0.0000 % 1,870.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.83 % 5.88 % 184,808 14.04 70 0.1039 % 1,780.9
FixedReset 5.45 % 3.91 % 392,325 3.94 41 0.1035 % 2,142.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 18.95
Evaluated at bid price : 18.95
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 19.42
Evaluated at bid price : 19.42
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 24.64
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
RY.PR.Y FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.42
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
SLF.PR.F FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.95
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
CM.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 22.59
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 22.14
Evaluated at bid price : 22.54
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 21.16
Evaluated at bid price : 21.16
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.L FixedReset 217,805 Nesbitt crossed 150,000 at 27.72; RBC crossed 50,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.72
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 56,703 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 28.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 28.05
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 56,061 Desjardins crossed blocks of 11,700 and 15,000 shares, both at 27.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.55
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 45,253 Scotia crossed 30,000 at 17.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 17.70
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 6.82 %
TD.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 39,457 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 36,759 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-24
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
There were 34 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Monetary Policy and Housing Bubbles

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

The Bank of Canada has released a Working Paper by Hajime Tomura titled Optimal Monetary Policy during
Endogenous Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles
:

This paper uses a small-open economy model for the Canadian economy to examine the optimal Taylor-type monetary policy rule that stabilizes output and inflation in an environment where endogenous boom-bust cycles in house prices can occur. The model shows that boom-bust cycles in house prices emerge when credit-constrained mortgage borrowers expect that future house prices will rise and this expectation is neither shared by savers nor realized ex-post. These boom-bust cycles replicate the stylized features of housing-market boom-bust cycles in industrialized countries. In an environment where mortgage borrowers are occasionally over-optimistic, the central bank should be less responsive to inflation, more responsive to output, and slower to adjust the nominal policy interest rate. This optimal monetary policy rule dampens endogenous boom-bust cycles in house prices, but prolongs inflation target horizons due to weak policy reactions to inflation fluctuations after fundamental shocks.

As summarized in Section 2, cross-country data for industrialized countries indicate that the nominal policy interest rate and the CPI inflation rate have tended to decline during housing booms and rise after the peaks of housing booms. The model explains this observation as follows. When borrowers expect that future house prices will rise, they increase housing investments, which causes a housing boom. Since borrowers are credit-constrained, they work more to finance their housing investments during the boom. At the same time, when savers do not share the optimistic expectations of borrowers, they instead expect the boom to be temporary and increase savings for a future recession. The increases in labour supply and savings reduce real wages and the real interest rate, respectively. Given sticky prices, a resulting fall in the marginal cost of production lowers the inflation rate, and, in response to this, the central bank cuts the policy rate. When the optimistic expectations of borrowers are not realized ex-post, a housing bust occurs, and savings and labour supply decline. As a consequence, the inflation rate rises, inducing a monetary policy tightening.

Since borrowers are credit-constrained, they work more to finance their housing investments during the boom. sounds a little backwards to me. I would say that “Credit constrained borrowers can work more during the boom, which allows them to finance increased housing investments”. I don’t find the rest of the rationale very convincing, frankly.

The problem of the interplay between monetary policy and housing bubbles has been discussed on PrefBlog before; e.g. Taylor Rules and the Credit Crunch Cause, with David Pappell warning

The Fed should respond to inflation, not inflation forecasts, especially in an environment where large negative output gaps are causing forecasted inflation to fall.

… a conclusion supported by the KC Fed paper discussed in KC Fed: Monetary Policy Amidst Deflationary Pressures. The problem was also discussed on Econbrowser in the post The Taylor Rule and the Housing Boom, which discusses the paper Dr. Taylor presented at the 2007 Jackson Hole conference, Housing and Monetary Policy

It strikes me that the Taylor Rule’s greatest strength, simplicity, is also its greatest weakness. Policy failure can result from misestimation of either of the two input variables. For policy purposes, it might be worthwhile to see how well other estimations that measure approximately the same thing can be added into the mix so that, for instance, inflation could be estimated not just by the CPI, but also with raw housing prices; the output gap supplemented by raw unemployment figures, and so on. Hell, I use 23 valuation parameters to assess the value of a preferred share, each of them taking a slightly different look at the problem.

November 23, 2009

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Themis Trading has published another “mini white paper” by Sal L. Arnuk and Joseph Saluzzi, Why Institutional Investors Should Be Concerned About High Frequency Traders. Their second so-called “problem” is actually a highly desirable feature:

2. HFT volume can generate false trading signals.

This can cause other investors to buy at a higher price, or sell at a lower price, than they would otherwise. A spike in HFT volume can cause an institutional algorithm order based on a percentage of volume to be too aggressive. A spike can attract momentum investors, further exaggerating price moves. Seeing such a spike, options traders can start to build positions, which, in turn, can attract risk arbitrage traders who believe there’s potential news that could affect the stock.

As a fundamental, value based investor, I say “Super!”. The more that securities are moved off their fundamental value, the more opportunities I will have to take advantage of the difference and make some money for my clients.

From a policy perspective, the underperformance of morons – who pretend sophisitication due to their use of algorithms, a four-syllable word, or who are attracted by momentum, or who care to bet that there’s news coming, implicitly accepting and trading on the efforts of insider traders – will assist their exit from the workforce. Which is a Good Thing, to the extent that underperformance has an actual effect on employment prospects.

Today’s 2-Year Treasury auction set two records:

Treasuries remained lower after the government sold a record-tying $44 billion of two-year debt at the lowest yield ever, the first of three note sales this week totaling a record $118 billion.

The securities drew a yield of 0.802 percent, compared to the forecast of 0.786 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of eight of the Federal Reserve’s 18 primary dealers and below the 0.922 percent drawn at an auction in December. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 3.16, compared to 3.63 at the previous auction. The average at the last 10 auctions was 2.92.

HSBC Canada is calling some sub-debt:

HSBC Bank Canada today announced its intention to redeem all $100,000,000 of its 4.39% subordinated debentures due 21 January 2015 (the “Debentures”). In accordance with their terms, the Debentures will be redeemed at 100% of their principal amount plus accrued interest to the redemption date. The redemption will occur on 21 January 2010 and will be financed out of the general corporate funds of HSBC Bank Canada.

These debs are described as:

The interest rate is fixed at 4.39 per cent until January 2010 and thereafter the rate reprices at the 90 day average bankers’ acceptance
rate plus 1.00 per cent.

The market edged up a little today – PerpetualDiscounts up 9bp and FixedResets down 2bp – on slighly lower volume.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.8506 % 1,500.1
FixedFloater 6.05 % 4.16 % 41,630 18.59 1 -2.8108 % 2,575.9
Floater 2.60 % 3.04 % 90,413 19.57 3 -0.8506 % 1,874.1
OpRet 4.81 % -4.28 % 119,128 0.09 14 -0.0736 % 2,305.8
SplitShare 6.35 % -3.26 % 330,025 0.08 2 0.2635 % 2,115.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0736 % 2,108.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.88 % 5.54 % 125,290 2.40 4 0.1884 % 1,870.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.84 % 5.88 % 185,165 14.04 70 0.0918 % 1,779.1
FixedReset 5.46 % 3.90 % 391,330 3.94 41 -0.0238 % 2,139.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.98
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
CM.PR.P Perpetual-Discount -1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-23
Maturity Price : 22.41
Evaluated at bid price : 22.96
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
TRI.PR.B Floater -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-23
Maturity Price : 19.41
Evaluated at bid price : 19.41
Bid-YTW : 2.04 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.03
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
CU.PR.B Perpetual-Premium 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-07-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-08-16
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-23
Maturity Price : 19.28
Evaluated at bid price : 19.28
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
SLF.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-23
Maturity Price : 19.31
Evaluated at bid price : 19.31
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 213,718 Nesbitt crossed 200,000 at 27.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.60
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 51,115 RBC crossed 30,000 at 27.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.66
Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
GWO.PR.X OpRet 42,979 Dundee crossed 34,500 at 26.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.67
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
PWF.PR.D OpRet 41,100 Nesbitt crossed 30,000 at 26.40; RBC crossed 10,600 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2009-12-23
Maturity Price : 25.60
Evaluated at bid price : 26.37
Bid-YTW : -25.38 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 33,801 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-23
Maturity Price : 20.25
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 32,092 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-23
Maturity Price : 17.52
Evaluated at bid price : 17.52
Bid-YTW : 6.92 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

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"Fixed Income & Preferred Shares" Video Seminar Now On-Line!

Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

I am pleased to announce that the Seminar on Fixed Income & Preferred Shares is now on-line and available for purchase of access via PrefLetter.com.

Access to this video is priced at an introductory rate: free to PrefLetter subscribers with an active year’s subscription, $25 to non-subscribers.

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November 20, 2009

Friday, November 20th, 2009

Another nice day for Canadian Preferreds, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 30bp while FixedResets were up 24bp, on moderate volume.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.7250 % 1,513.0
FixedFloater 5.88 % 4.01 % 41,842 18.80 1 1.3699 % 2,650.4
Floater 2.58 % 3.01 % 93,780 19.65 3 0.7250 % 1,890.2
OpRet 4.80 % -6.65 % 120,645 0.09 14 0.0710 % 2,307.5
SplitShare 6.37 % -2.57 % 332,820 0.08 2 -0.0658 % 2,109.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0710 % 2,110.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.89 % 3.51 % 126,418 0.19 4 0.1987 % 1,867.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.84 % 5.92 % 182,633 14.03 70 0.2966 % 1,777.5
FixedReset 5.46 % 3.90 % 387,829 3.94 41 0.2397 % 2,140.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 24.31
Evaluated at bid price : 24.51
Bid-YTW : 6.20 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 22.20
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
IAG.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 19.36
Evaluated at bid price : 19.36
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
BNS.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 21.56
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 2.01 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 23.80
Evaluated at bid price : 24.16
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
RY.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 20.32
Evaluated at bid price : 20.32
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.T FixedReset 136,230 RBC crossed blocks of 76,000 and 52,800, both at 27.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.80
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
CM.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 103,910 RBC crossed 59,000 at 23.35; TD crossed 41,600 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-20
Maturity Price : 22.61
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
BNS.PR.X FixedReset 80,680 RBC crossed 76,000 at 27.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.75
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 77,110 RBC bought 13,400 from HSBC at 27.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.92
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 52,230 RBC crossed blocks of 19,500 and 20,000, both at 27.57.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.60
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
GWO.PR.E OpRet 40,449 Anonymous bought blocks of 10,700 and 13,500 from National and HSBC, respectively, both at 25.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.71
Bid-YTW : 2.03 %
There were 36 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

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RPB.PR.A to Vote on Early Dissolution

Friday, November 20th, 2009

ROC Pref III Corp. has announced:

ROC Pref III Corp. announces that its board of directors has approved a proposal to change the redemption date of the Preferred Shares from March 23, 2012 to December 22, 2009 (the “Proposal”). As a result of the Proposal, Shareholders will have their Preferred Shares redeemed by the Company on such date and will be paid the net asset value redemption price per Preferred Share as of December 18, 2009 plus a redemption premium of $1.00 per Preferred Share. The credit linked note portfolio to which the Company has exposure has suffered several defaults over the past year and if one or more occur in the time remaining to maturity. Shareholders risk losing all or a substantial portion of their investment. The Company’s Investment Advisor believes there are a number of reference companies in the credit linked note portfolio that are at a significant risk of default prior to the maturity of the credit linked note. Accordingly, the Company’s board of directors, Manager and Investment Advisor believe it is in the best interests of the Shareholders to crystalize and preserve the remaining value of the Preferred Shares for Shareholders. In this regard, following recently completed negotiations the issuer of the credit linked note has agreed to repurchase the note on December 18, 2009 to facilitate this outcome. The Proposal will involve the amendment of the Company’s articles of incorporation and will be subject to receipt of all necessary shareholder and regulatory approvals.

A special meeting of holders of Preferred Shares has been called and will be held on December 17, 2009 to consider and vote upon the Proposal. Details of the Proposal will be outlined in an information circular to be sent to shareholders in connection with the special meeting. Copies of the information circular will be available on www.sedar.com and www.cclcapitalmarkets.com.

The estimated NAV of the fund is 3.57 as of November 16.

They’re selling a structured note with high downside risk … I’ll bet they’re getting a good price!

RPB.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when they announced a potential restructuring and the CIT Credit event. RPB.PR.A is not tracked by HIMIPref™.free chips no deposit no down load Free Slotmachines Monopoly casino download free play casinos 599.
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RPQ.PR.A to Vote on Dissolution

Friday, November 20th, 2009

Connor, Clark & Lunn ROC Pref Corp. has announced:

that its board of directors has approved a proposal to change the redemption date of the Preferred Shares from June 30, 2011 to December 22, 2009 (the “Proposal”). As a result of the Proposal, Shareholders will have their Preferred Shares redeemed by the Company on such date and will be paid the net asset value per Preferred Share as of December 18, 2009. The credit linked note portfolio to which the Company has exposure has suffered several defaults over the past year and if three or more occur in the time remaining to maturity Shareholders risk losing all or a substantial portion of their investment. The Company’s Investment Advisor believes there are a number of reference companies in the credit linked note portfolio that are at a significant risk of default prior to the maturity of the credit linked note. Accordingly, the Company’s board of directors, Manager and Investment Advisor believe it is in the best interests of the Shareholders to crystalize and preserve the remaining value of the Preferred Shares for Shareholders. In this regard, following recently completed negotiations the issuer of the credit linked note has agreed to repurchase the note on December 18, 2009 to facilitate this outcome. The Proposal will involve the amendment of the Company’s articles of incorporation and will be subject to receipt of all necessary shareholder and regulatory approvals.

A special meeting of holders of Preferred Shares has been called and will be held on December 17, 2009 to consider and vote upon the Proposal. Details of the Proposal will be outlined in an information circular to be sent to shareholders in connection with the special meeting. Copies of the information circular will be available on www.sedar.com and www.cclcapitalmarkets.com.

The estimated NAV of the fund is 9.20 as of November 16.

Let’s see … it’s backed by a structured note, downside risk is enormous, and there’s a motivated seller … I bet they’ll get a good price for the credit linked note!

RPQ.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when the continued suspension of dividends was announced. RPQ.PR.A is not tracked by HIMIPref™.no deposit required casino lists Play Igt Slots Free slots of fun
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Canadian Bond Liquidity Premia

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

The Autumn 2009 Bank of Canada Review contained an article by Alejandro Garcia and Jun Yang titled Understanding Corporate Bond Spreads Using Credit Default Swaps that, frankly, has me rather puzzled.

They state:

We use credit default swaps to decompose the spreads on Canadian corporate bonds because, as discussed in the next section, their lower susceptibility to liquidity effects makes them a much purer measure of default risk.

CDS contracts are commonly used to extract proxies for default risk for several reasons. As contracts, not securities, CDSs are far less sensitive to liquidity effects, since securities are in fi xed supply, while the supply of CDSs can be arbitrarily large. Because of this reduced sensitivity, CDSs provide a better measure of default risk. As well, it is less costly for investors to liquidate CDSs prior to maturity than to liquidate a corporate bond, since investors simply enter into a swap contract in the opposite direction. Further, CDSs are not likely to become “special” like treasury bills, or “squeezed” like corporate bonds. In principle, therefore, CDSs should contain mainly default information about the reference entity. However, they are not totally immune to liquidity effects, since search costs may be high for illiquid CDS contracts.

In this model, investors demand a return for holding corporate bonds that includes the risk-free rate, the default risk of the issuer, and the liquidity premium associated with the security. Similarly, investors demand compensation for selling the CDS that includes the risk-free rate and the default risk associated with the reference entity (bond issuer). Note that, in the model, we assume that the bond yield includes compensation for liquidity and default risk, whereas the CDS includes compensation only for default risk.

They derive the following decomposition. It should be noted that their phrase “average investment grade firm” is a little general, since they only had data for six companies, all BBB:

My problem is that I don’t understand their methodology. It ignores arbitrage – which means that you cannot capture the liquidity component by buying the bond and buying protection – and it would appear to blow up when confronted with the problem of positive basis trades, which (as observed by Choudhry) are are most common; negative basis trades became more common during the Crunch due to funding risk. For example:

BMO Capital Markets: Negative Basis Trades:

We recently executed a number of negative basis trades for clients involving auto companies when bond spreads were trading significantly wider than the CDS cost of protection. Investors were typically able to earn net spreads in excess of 25 bps after hedging both their interest rate risk and credit risk. This net spread offered a very attractive return for the risk resulting from this combination of transactions, i.e. a better than senior bank debt spread for assuming credit risk exposure that is meaningfully lower than direct bank exposure since the investor only looks to the bank CDS counterparty if the bond issuer fails.

Negative basis opportunities arise from time to time, but tend not to last for very long – investors who are able to act quickly are the big beneficiaries. We are active in the market, highlighting negative basis trade ideas for interested investors.

I have sent a query to the authors and will update this post if I get an answer.

Update: The methodology’s seminal paper by Longstaff (better link) examines CDS & bond yield spreads for Enron, which occasionally went negative, particularly towards the end. He notes:

It is important to acknowledge that our empirical approach of using a bracketing set of bonds does not eliminate all measurement error. This may partially explain why some of the percentages shown in Figure 3 for the size of the default component (particularly for the cases in which the Treasury and Refcorp curves are used) are in excess of 100.

It strikes me that dismissing negative basis as measurement error is cheating.

Doubt has been cast on the methodology by the results of Mahanti, Nashikkary & Subrahmanyam

Recent research has shown that default risk accounts for only a part of the total yield spread on risky corporate bonds relative to their risk-less benchmarks. One candidate for the unexplained portion of the spread is a premium for liquidity. We investigate this possibility by relating the liquidity of corporate bonds, as measured by their ease of market access, to the basis between the credit default swap (CDS) price of the issuer and the par-equivalent corporate bond yield spread. The ease of access of a bond is measured using a recently developed measure called latent liquidity, which is defined as the weighted average turnover of funds holding the bond, where the weights are their fractional holdings of the bond. We find that bonds with higher latent liquidity are more expensive relative to their CDS contracts, after controlling for other realized measures of liquidity. Additionally, we document the positive effects of liquidity in the CDS market on the CDS-bond basis. We also find that several firm-level variables related to credit risk negatively affect the basis, indicating that the CDS price does not fully capture the credit risk of the bond. In a similar vein, we document that bond-level variables related to features of the contract that may be related to credit risk, such as the presence of covenants, have a negative impact on the CDS-bond basis. These findings are consistent with the presence of frictions in the arbitrage mechanism between the CDS and bond markets, due to the costs of shorting” bonds.

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November 19, 2009

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

James Mackintosh of the Financial Times was kind enough to link to a PrefBlog post in his discussion of Contingent Capital, CoCo farming shows the true value of government guarantees. He suggests that just about all of a banks capital market financing be contingent capital – which is, after all, what happens in bankruptcy:

Banks should be forced to turn a big chunk of existing bank debt into CoCos, with a conversion trigger based on a minimum level of capital – the worst case scenario – *or* on the bank failing. In effect, this would be a bank resolution regime which automatically converts debt to equity, avoiding the need for government rescues. Debt would cost a lot more, but bondholders would also have a far bigger incentive to keep an eye on bank management. Perhaps only 50 per cent of debt, or some other very large amount, rather than 100 per cent, would need to be convertible – but it would have to be far more than the normal belief of what might be needed in order to deal with the “black swan” events which lead to the need for government intervention.

Increased bank regulation and pay-approvals is leading to a talent drain to hedge funds:

Meredith Whitney, the analyst who cut her rating on Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month, said the bank has lost some of its top-performing employees as executives left to start their own investment companies.

“Goldman’s lost a tremendous amount of talent going to set up their own hedge funds,” Whitney, founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “It became a scary prospect of having the government determine what you make,” said Whitney, who also said today that bank stocks are “grossly overvalued.”

The stock plunge today was pretty tame, as plunges go, but Bloomberg says they plunged … with something even more interesting going on:

U.S. stocks extended a global drop as concern grew that the rally has outpaced the prospects for economic growth. The yen and the dollar strengthened, oil tumbled and yields on Treasury three-month bills turned negative for the first time since financial markets froze last year.

They now quote 3-month US Bills at 1bp – count ’em, one.

The preferred share market continued its recent run, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 14bp on the day, while FixedResets were down a negligible amount. The big news was that volume fell.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.92%, equivalent to 8.30% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x. Long Corporates are about 5.9%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the Seniority Spread) is about 240bp. This is a shade wider than the 235bp reported on November 11, but the market seems to have found a new level … at least, until it doesn’t.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.7414 % 1,502.1
FixedFloater 5.96 % 4.08 % 43,496 18.70 1 0.2747 % 2,614.6
Floater 2.60 % 3.03 % 97,223 19.62 3 -0.7414 % 1,876.6
OpRet 4.81 % -4.85 % 121,164 0.09 14 -0.0818 % 2,305.9
SplitShare 6.36 % -7.34 % 336,155 0.08 2 -0.1096 % 2,111.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0818 % 2,108.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.90 % 5.53 % 124,939 2.41 4 0.1592 % 1,863.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.85 % 5.92 % 186,338 14.00 70 0.1380 % 1,772.2
FixedReset 5.47 % 3.97 % 392,496 3.94 41 -0.0045 % 2,135.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 21.99
Evaluated at bid price : 22.12
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 13.12
Evaluated at bid price : 13.12
Bid-YTW : 3.03 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.55
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 13.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.00
Bid-YTW : 3.05 %
SLF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 19.21
Evaluated at bid price : 19.21
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
SLF.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 20.38
Evaluated at bid price : 20.38
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
SLF.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 20.49
Evaluated at bid price : 20.49
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 73,589 RBC crossed 19,400 at 19.70, then 20,000 at 19.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 19.84
Evaluated at bid price : 19.84
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
BNS.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 62,200 RBC crossed three blocks of 20,000 shares each at 24.87.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 24.53
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
CM.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 42,350 RBC crossed 38,200 at 24.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 23.95
Evaluated at bid price : 24.28
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
GWO.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 40,200 RBC crossed 34,300 at 23.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 23.51
Evaluated at bid price : 23.67
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 37,125 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
RY.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 35,135 RBC crossed 25,000 at 20.83.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-19
Maturity Price : 20.79
Evaluated at bid price : 20.79
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

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KSP.UN: DBRS Downgrades to Pfd-4(low), Discontinues Coverage

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

DBRS has announced:

has today downgraded its rating on the LROC Preferred Units (the Units) issued by Kingsway Linked Return of Capital Trust (the Trust) to Pfd-4 (low) from Pfd-4. The Under Review with Negative Implications status, which was assigned to the Units on June 8, 2009, is being maintained.

The LROC Preferred Units are supported by an exposure to a note guaranteed by Kingsway Financial Services Inc. and Kingsway America Inc. (collectively, Kingsway) through a forward purchase agreement. The downgrade of the Units is a result of DBRS downgrading the long-term debt ratings of Kingsway earlier today to B (high) from BB (low).

Also, subsequent to today’s downgrade, DBRS immediately discontinued its ratings coverage of Kingsway. As a result, the rating of the Units has also been discontinued.

KSP.UN was last mentioned on PrefBlog when it was downgraded to Pfd-4 by DBRS. KSP.UN is not tracked by HIMIPref™.