Month: October 2026

The cry goes up from the prediction markets and gambling hells … “Buy the dips!”:

A wave of investor buying reversed an early selloff in US Treasuries on Thursday, providing relief to bondholders after long-term yields surged to their highest level in 24 years following the latest hot economic data.

The reversal opened October ⁠on an optimistic ​note following the largest quarterly rise in 10-year yields since 1994, a year known on Wall Street as the great bond massacre. Yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries hit their highest level since the spring of 2002 at midmorning on Thursday after the Institute for Supply Management said US manufacturing activity was little changed in September, with prices for inputs surging amid strong demand, pointing to sustained inflation pressures.

The early selloff came against ​a deteriorating backdrop for inflation, with benchmark Brent oil prices rallying after China suspended exports of ‌oil products. Earlier data showed that new applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week and layoffs decreased in September, suggesting that labor-market stability persisted even as employers remained cautious about boosting hiring.

But the momentum shifted toward buying bonds shortly after 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), with traders and analysts citing a widespread sense that the sharp rises in yields over the past six weeks have vastly improved the risk/reward profile on US Treasury debt. On Thursday afternoon, benchmark yields were on track for their ‌biggest drop in ​two weeks after dovish comments from Federal Reserve ‌officials.
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Some of the strongest buying occurred in 2-year Treasuries, with yields marking their biggest declines in a single session since August 2025. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, was last down 8.94 basis points at 4.798%.
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The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 5.02 basis points to 5.243% after earlier trading at 5.3445%, their highest level since April 2002.

The 30-year bond yield fell 3.21 basis points to 5.6069% after earlier reaching 5.6935%.