Archive for October, 2016

CPX.PR.G Closes Steady on Good Volume

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016

Capital Power Corporation has announced:

it has closed its previously announced offering of 8,000,000 Cumulative Minimum Rate Reset Preference Shares, Series 7 (the “Series 7 Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per Series 7 Share for aggregate gross proceeds of $200 million on a bought deal basis with a syndicate of underwriters, led by TD Securities Inc. and CIBC Capital Markets.

The Series 7 Shares will begin trading today on the TSX under the symbol CPX.PR.G.

CPX.PR.G is a FixedReset, 6.00%+526M600, announced September 22. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns. DBRS has rated it Pfd-3(low) [Stable] in line with the corporation’s other preferred share issues.

The issue traded 530,562 shares today in a range of 24.75-00 before closing at 24.99-00, 8×199. Vital statistics are:

CPX.PR.G FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-04
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 24.99
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %

Implied Volatility analysis simply leads to a repetition of my previous analysis – this is a very expensive issue.

impVol_CPX_161004
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October 3, 2016

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2550 % 1,709.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2550 % 3,123.6
Floater 4.37 % 4.54 % 40,011 16.38 4 0.2550 % 1,800.2
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0796 % 2,890.6
SplitShare 4.84 % 4.69 % 72,552 2.14 6 -0.0796 % 3,451.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0796 % 2,693.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.33 % 4.68 % 66,805 2.10 23 0.0616 % 2,690.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.10 % 5.15 % 98,314 15.15 15 -0.2022 % 2,917.6
FixedReset 4.93 % 4.27 % 148,204 6.95 92 -0.1620 % 2,055.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.02 % 2.59 % 114,307 0.32 32 -0.0381 % 2,805.1
FloatingReset 3.04 % 4.31 % 40,866 4.96 12 -0.7959 % 2,190.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IFC.PR.D FloatingReset -10.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 10.05 %
SLF.PR.K FloatingReset -1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 8.93 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.63
Bid-YTW : 10.49 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 13.20
Evaluated at bid price : 13.20
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 20.21
Evaluated at bid price : 20.21
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 10.58
Evaluated at bid price : 10.58
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.14
Bid-YTW : 9.99 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 18.66
Evaluated at bid price : 18.66
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 43,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 17.92
Evaluated at bid price : 17.92
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset 40,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 30,247 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.61
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 25,871 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset 23,345 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.92
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset 23,160 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 18.87
Evaluated at bid price : 18.87
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
There were 16 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.D FloatingReset Quote: 15.50 – 24.00
Spot Rate : 8.5000
Average : 4.9225

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 10.05 %

CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 24.80 – 25.29
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3132

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %

SLF.PR.K FloatingReset Quote: 16.00 – 17.00
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.8808

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 8.93 %

NA.PR.S FixedReset Quote: 18.68 – 18.94
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1567

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 18.68
Evaluated at bid price : 18.68
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 14.14 – 14.45
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2232

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.14
Bid-YTW : 9.99 %

IFC.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 15.40 – 15.75
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2643

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.40
Bid-YTW : 9.55 %

SLF.PR.K FloatingReset Commences Trading

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016

There was no announcement from Sun Life Financial Corporation, but SLF.PR.K, a FloatingReset that has resulted from a 14% exchange from SLF.PR.H has commenced trading. SLF.PR.H has reset at 2.842% and will reset again 2021-9-30 (or be called on that date) at GOC-5 +217, while SLF.PR.K will pay three month bills +217bp, reset quarterly; in both cases, the dividends will be calculated on the $25 par value of the stocks. The two issues are interconvertible every Exchange Date, making them a Strong Pair.

Vital Statistics as of September 30 are:

SLF.PR.H FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.57
Bid-YTW : 8.59 %
SLF.PR.K FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.25
Bid-YTW : 8.71 %

It will be noted in the above that I assume a Hard Maturity as of 2025-01-31 for both issues.

As this issue is from an insurer and there is no provision for conversion into common shares at the option of the issuer, I consider this to be subject to my Deemed Retraction policy; accordingly I have placed a maturity entry dated 2025-1-31 at par in the call schedule of this instrument for analytical purposes. Note that this approach is due to analysis and there is no contractual provision in the terms of issue for any such maturity.

At the close 2016-10-3, the Strong Pair was trading with an implied average three-month bill rate to the next Exchange Date of +0.24%; SLF.PR.K has a good relative bid compared to other pairs!

pairs_FR_161003
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IFC.PR.D FloatingReset Commences Trading

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016

There was no announcement from Intact Financial Corporation, but IFC.PR.D, a FloatingReset that has resulted from a 16% exchange from IFC.PR.C has commenced trading. IFC.PR.C has reset at 3.332% and will reset again 2021-9-30 (or be called on that date) at GOC-5 +266, while IFC.PR.D will pay three month bills +266bp, reset quarterly; in both cases, the dividends will be calculated on the $25 par value of the stocks. The two issues are interconvertible every Exchange Date, making them a Strong Pair.

Vital Statistics as of September 30 are:

IFC.PR.D FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 8.46 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.10
Bid-YTW : 7.92 %

It will be noted in the above that I assume a Hard Maturity as of 2025-01-31 for both issues.

As this issue is from an insurer and there is no provision for conversion into common shares at the option of the issuer, I consider this to be subject to my Deemed Retraction policy; accordingly I have placed a maturity entry dated 2025-1-31 at par in the call schedule of this instrument for analytical purposes. Note that this approach is due to analysis and there is no contractual provision in the terms of issue for any such maturity.

At the close 2016-10-3, the Strong Pair was trading with an implied average three-month bill rate to the next Exchange Date of -1.96%; IFC.PR.D has a very weak bid!

pairs_FR_161003
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BPO.PR.S Commences Trading After 11% Conversion From BPO.PR.R

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016

There has been no announcement by Brookfield Property, but BPO.PR.S commenced trading today and data from the TMX website indicates a conversion rate of 11%.

It will be recalled the FixedReset BPO.PR.R has reset at 4.155% and will reset 2021-9-30 at GOC5+348bp, while BPO.PR.S will pay three-month bills +348bp, reset quarterly. They will be interconvertible again at the next Exchange Date, 2021-9-30.

Both issues are followed by HIMIPref™ but both are relegated to the Scraps subindex due to credit concerns.

Vital statistics are:

BPO.PR.R FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 18.15
Evaluated at bid price : 18.15
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
BPO.PR.S FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-03
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %

At the current bid prices, the implied average three-month bill rate until the next Exchange date is -0.50%, slightly below the average implied rate for junk issues of -0.35%.

pairs_FR_161003
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EFN Upgraded to Pfd-3(high) by DBRS

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016

DBRS has announced:

DBRS, Inc. (DBRS) has today upgraded the ratings of Element Fleet Management Corporation (Element or the Company), including its Issuer Rating to BBB (high) from BBB. The trend on all ratings is Stable. Concurrently, DBRS has changed the name of Element Financial Corporation to Element Fleet Management Corporation on its website, reflecting the change in the Company’s legal name effective today following the legal separation of Element from its former commercial businesses which are now housed within ECN Capital Corporation. Today’s rating action concludes the Under Review with Positive Implications, where the ratings were placed on February 17, 2016.

From DBRS’s perspective, Element’s below-average risk profile is a positive and a key factor in the ratings. The Company’s risk profile is supported by its conservative credit risk appetite and its well-designed risk management framework. Credit risk, which is derived from the Company’s corporate client base, is Element’s primary risk exposure. However, with more than 60% of the client base investment grade corporates, historical credit losses in Element’s fleet management business have been very low, averaging approximately 0.03% of book value annually. Moreover, Element’s overall risk profile benefits from minimal exposure to asset risk, given the lease structure of the majority of the leasing portfolio.

DBRS considers Element’s funding and liquidity profile as appropriately managed and aligned with the asset base. However, DBRS views the reliance on secured forms of wholesale funding as limiting financial flexibility and a constraint on the ratings. Liquidity is largely comprised of unrestricted cash and capacity under its bank facilities, supported by solid cash flow from operations, which as of June 30, 2016, on a pro-forma basis, was more than sufficient to fund expected originations over the next year. DBRS views capitalization as solid given the credit risk profile, limited residual value exposure and strengthening ability to generate organic capital. On a pro-forma basis, tangible leverage is in line with industry peers at 7.5x, at June 30, 2016, and within maximum covenant limits.

I previously reported on the Review-Positive when it was announced by DBRS in February, 2016.

Affected issues are EFN.PR.A, EFN.PR.C, EFN.PR.E and EFN.PR.G.

MAPF Performance: September, 2016

Monday, October 3rd, 2016

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund’s Net Asset Value per Unit as of the close September 30, 2016, was $8.0590 after a distribution of 0.101759 per unit.

Returns to September 30, 2016
Period MAPF BMO-CM “50” Index TXPR
Total Return
CPD – according to Blackrock
One Month +0.42% -0.12% -0.10% N/A
Three Months +6.39% +4.88% +4.66% N/A
One Year +8.94% +9.05% +8.53% +7.88%
Two Years (annualized) -7.40% -6.09% -6.61% N/A
Three Years (annualized) -2.03% -2.79% -2.74% -3.14%
Four Years (annualized) -1.82% -1.98% -2.30% N/A
Five Years (annualized) +0.92% -0.35% -0.60% -1.02%
Six Years (annualized) +1.23% +0.99% +0.35%  
Seven Years (annualized) +3.16% +2.22% +1.54%  
Eight Years (annualized) +9.13% +3.19% +2.45%  
Nine Years (annualized) +7.62% +2.04% +1.23%  
Ten Years (annualized) +6.96% +1.63%    
Eleven Years (annualized) +6.87% +1.85%    
Twelve Years (annualized) +6.89% +2.12%    
Thirteen Years (annualized) +7.53% +2.34%    
Fourteen Years (annualized) +9.11% +2.69%    
Fifteen Years (annualized) +8.48% +2.50%    
MAPF returns assume reinvestment of distributions, and are shown after expenses but before fees.
CPD Returns are for the NAV and are after all fees and expenses.
Figures for National Bank Preferred Equity Income Fund (formerly Omega Preferred Equity) (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are +0.04%, +4.23% and +6.71%, respectively, according to Morningstar after all fees & expenses. Three year performance is -1.09%; five year is +0.60%
Figures for Manulife Preferred Income Class Adv [into which was merged Manulife Preferred Income Fund (formerly AIC Preferred Income Fund)] (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are -0.08%, +6.07% & +8.47%, respectively. It will be noted that AIC Preferred Income Fund was in existence prior to August, 2009, but long term performance figures have been suppressed.
Figures for Horizons Active Preferred Share ETF (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are -0.10%, +4.83% & +9.13%, respectively. Three year performance is -1.41%, five-year is +0.72%
Figures for National Bank Preferred Equity Fund (formerly Altamira Preferred Equity Fund) are -0.31%, +4.58% and +7.89% for one-, three- and twelve months, respectively. Three year performance is -2.75%

According to the fund’s fact sheet as of June 30, 2016, the fund’s inception date was October 30, 2015. I do not know how they justify this nonsensical statement, but will assume that prior performance is being suppressed in some perfectly legal manner.

The figure for BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF is +6.33% for the past twelve months. Two year performance is -11.67%, three year is -6.65%.
Figures for NexGen Canadian Preferred Share Tax Managed Fund (Dividend Tax Credit Class, the best performing) are -%, +% and -% for one-, three- and twelve-months, respectively.
Figures for BMO Preferred Share Fund are +4.29% and +6.99% for the past three- and twelve-months, respectively. Three year performance is -3.23%.
Figures for PowerShares Canadian Preferred Share Index Class, Series F are +8.77% for the past twelve months. The three-year figure is -2.90%; five years is -1.29%
Figures for the First Asset Preferred Share Investment Trust (PSF.UN) are +0.11%, +2.45% and -1.67% for the past one, three and twelve months, respectively. The two-, three-, four- and five-year figures are -14.52%, -9.01%, -7.09% and -5.10%, respectively.

MAPF returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund. For more information, see the fund’s main page. The fund is available either directly from Hymas Investment Management or through a brokerage account at Odlum Brown Limited.

Calculation of MAPF Sustainable Income Per Unit
Month NAVPU Portfolio
Average
YTW
Leverage
Divisor
Securities
Average
YTW
Capital
Gains
Multiplier
Sustainable
Income
per
current
Unit
June, 2007 9.3114 5.16% 1.03 5.01% 1.3240 0.3524
September 9.1489 5.35% 0.98 5.46% 1.3240 0.3773
December, 2007 9.0070 5.53% 0.942 5.87% 1.3240 0.3993
March, 2008 8.8512 6.17% 1.047 5.89% 1.3240 0.3938
June 8.3419 6.034% 0.952 6.338% 1.3240 $0.3993
September 8.1886 7.108% 0.969 7.335% 1.3240 $0.4537
December, 2008 8.0464 9.24% 1.008 9.166% 1.3240 $0.5571
March 2009 $8.8317 8.60% 0.995 8.802% 1.3240 $0.5872
June 10.9846 7.05% 0.999 7.057% 1.3240 $0.5855
September 12.3462 6.03% 0.998 6.042% 1.3240 $0.5634
December 2009 10.5662 5.74% 0.981 5.851% 1.1141 $0.5549
March 2010 10.2497 6.03% 0.992 6.079% 1.1141 $0.5593
June 10.5770 5.96% 0.996 5.984% 1.1141 $0.5681
September 11.3901 5.43% 0.980 5.540% 1.1141 $0.5664
December 2010 10.7659 5.37% 0.993 5.408% 1.0298 $0.5654
March, 2011 11.0560 6.00% 0.994 5.964% 1.0298 $0.6403
June 11.1194 5.87% 1.018 5.976% 1.0298 $0.6453
September 10.2709 6.10%
Note
1.001 6.106% 1.0298 $0.6090
December, 2011 10.0793 5.63%
Note
1.031 5.805% 1.0000 $0.5851
March, 2012 10.3944 5.13%
Note
0.996 5.109% 1.0000 $0.5310
June 10.2151 5.32%
Note
1.012 5.384% 1.0000 $0.5500
September 10.6703 4.61%
Note
0.997 4.624% 1.0000 $0.4934
December, 2012 10.8307 4.24% 0.989 4.287% 1.0000 $0.4643
March, 2013 10.9033 3.87% 0.996 3.886% 1.0000 $0.4237
June 10.3261 4.81% 0.998 4.80% 1.0000 $0.4957
September 10.0296 5.62% 0.996 5.643% 1.0000 $0.5660
December, 2013 9.8717 6.02% 1.008 5.972% 1.0000 $0.5895
March, 2014 10.2233 5.55% 0.998 5.561% 1.0000 $0.5685
June 10.5877 5.09% 0.998 5.100% 1.0000 $0.5395
September 10.4601 5.28% 0.997 5.296% 1.0000 $0.5540
December, 2014 10.5701 4.83% 1.009 4.787% 1.0000 $0.5060
March, 2015 9.9573 4.99% 1.001 4.985% 1.0000 $0.4964
June, 2015 9.4181 5.55% 1.002 5.539% 1.0000 $0.5217
September, 2015 7.8140 6.98% 0.999 6.987% 1.0000 $0.5460
December, 2015 8.1379 6.85% 0.997 6.871% 1.0000 $0.5592
March, 2016 7.4416 7.79% 0.998 7.805% 1.0000 $0.5808
June 7.6704 7.67% 1.011 7.587% 1.0000 $0.5819
September, 2016 8.0590 7.35% 0.993 7.402% 1.0000 $0.5965
NAVPU is shown after quarterly distributions of dividend income and annual distribution of capital gains.
Portfolio YTW includes cash (or margin borrowing), with an assumed interest rate of 0.00%
The Leverage Divisor indicates the level of cash in the account: if the portfolio is 1% in cash, the Leverage Divisor will be 0.99
Securities YTW divides “Portfolio YTW” by the “Leverage Divisor” to show the average YTW on the securities held; this assumes that the cash is invested in (or raised from) all securities held, in proportion to their holdings.
The Capital Gains Multiplier adjusts for the effects of Capital Gains Dividends. On 2009-12-31, there was a capital gains distribution of $1.989262 which is assumed for this purpose to have been reinvested at the final price of $10.5662. Thus, a holder of one unit pre-distribution would have held 1.1883 units post-distribution; the CG Multiplier reflects this to make the time-series comparable. Note that Dividend Distributions are not assumed to be reinvested.
Sustainable Income is the resultant estimate of the fund’s dividend income per current unit, before fees and expenses. Note that a “current unit” includes reinvestment of prior capital gains; a unitholder would have had the calculated sustainable income with only, say, 0.9 units in the past which, with reinvestment of capital gains, would become 1.0 current units.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company (definition refined in May, 2011). These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-31 (insurers and insurance holding companies), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See OSFI Does Not Grandfather Extant Tier 1 Capital, CM.PR.D, CM.PR.E, CM.PR.G: Seeking NVCC Status and the January, February, March and June, 2011, editions of PrefLetter for the rationale behind this analysis.

The same reasoning is also applied to FixedResets from these issuers, other than explicitly defined NVCC from banks.

Yields for September, 2011, to January, 2012, were calculated by imposing a cap of 10% on the yields of YLO issues held, in order to avoid their extremely high calculated yields distorting the calculation and to reflect the uncertainty in the marketplace that these yields will be realized. From February to September 2012, yields on these issues have been set to zero. All YLO issues held were sold in October 2012.

These calculations were performed assuming constant contemporary GOC-5 and 3-Month Bill rates, as follows:

Canada Yields Assumed in Calculations
Month-end GOC-5 3-Month Bill
September, 2015 0.78% 0.40%
December, 2015 0.71% 0.46%
March, 2016 0.70% 0.44%
June 0.57% 0.47%
September, 2016 0.58% 0.53%

Significant positions were held in NVCC non-compliant regulated FixedReset issues on September 30, 2016; all of these currently have their yields calculated with the presumption that they will be called by the issuers at par prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-31 (insurers and insurance holding companies) or on a different date (SplitShares) This presents another complication in the calculation of sustainable yield, which also assumes that redemption proceeds will be reinvested at the same rate.

I will also note that the sustainable yield calculated above is not directly comparable with any yield calculation currently reported by any other preferred share fund as far as I am aware. The Sustainable Yield depends on:
i) Calculating Yield-to-Worst for each instrument and using this yield for reporting purposes;
ii) Using the contemporary value of Five-Year Canadas to estimate dividends after reset for FixedResets. The assumption regarding the five-year Canada rate has become more important as the proportion of low-spread FixedResets in the portfolio has increased.
iii) Making the assumption that deeply discounted NVCC non-compliant issues from both banks and insurers, both Straight and FixedResets will be redeemed at par on their DeemedMaturity date as discussed above.

MAPF Portfolio Composition: September 2016

Sunday, October 2nd, 2016

Turnover continued to be extremely low in September, at about 2%.

There is extreme segmentation in the marketplace, with OSFI’s NVCC rule changes in February 2011 having had the effect of splitting the formerly relatively homogeneous Straight Perpetual class of preferreds into three parts:

  • Unaffected Straight Perpetuals
  • DeemedRetractibles explicitly subject to the rules (banks)
  • DeemedRetractibles considered by me, but not (yet!) by the market, to be likely to be explicitly subject to the rules in the future (insurers and insurance holding companies)

This segmentation, and the extreme valuation differences between the segments, has cut down markedly on the opportunities for trading.

To make this more clear, it used to be that there were 70-odd Straight Perpetuals and I was more or less indifferent as to which ones I owned (subject, of course, to issuer concentration concerns and other risk management factors). Thus, if any one of these 70 were to go down in price by – say – $0.25, I would quite often have something in inventory that I’d be willing to swap for it. The segmentation means that I am no longer indifferent; in addition to checking the valuation of a potential buy to other Straights, I also have to check its peer group. This cuts down on the potential for trading.

And, of course, the same segmentation has the same effect on trading opportunities between FixedReset issues.

There is no real hope that this situation will be corrected in the near-term. OSFI has indicated that the long-promised “Draft Definition of Capital” for insurers will not be issued “for public consultation in late 2012 or early 2013”, as they fear that it might encourage speculation in the marketplace. It is not clear why OSFI is so afraid of informed speculation, since the constant speculation in the marketplace is currently less informed than it would be with a little bit of regulatory clarity. While the framework has been updated, the modifications focus on the amount of capital required, not the required characteristics of that capital.

As a result of this delay, I have extended the Deemed Maturity date for insurers and insurance holding companies by three years (to 2025-1-31), in the expectation that when OSFI finally does provide clarity, they will allow the same degree of lead-in time for these companies as they did for banks. This had a major effect on the durations of preferred shares subject to the change but, fortunately, not much on their calculated yields as most of these issues were either trading near par when the change was made or were trading at sufficient premium that a par call was expected on economic grounds. However, with the declines in the market over the past nine months, the expected capital gain on redemption of the insurance-issued DeemedRetractibles has become an important component of the calculated yield.

Due to the footdragging by OSFI, I will be extending the DeemedMaturity date for insurance issues by another two years in the near future.

Sectoral distribution of the MAPF portfolio on September 30 was as follows:

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2016-9-30
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 0% N/A N/A
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualDiscount 10.2% 5.01% 15.44
Fixed-Reset 71.6% 7.44% 10.21
Deemed-Retractible 0% N/A N/A
FloatingReset 7.8% 10.95% 7.19
Scraps (Various) 9.7% 6.76% 13.28
Cash +0.7% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 7.35% 10.74
Totals and changes will not add precisely due to rounding. Cash is included in totals with duration and yield both equal to zero.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company. These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-3 (insurers and insurance holding companies), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See OSFI Does Not Grandfather Extant Tier 1 Capital, CM.PR.D, CM.PR.E, CM.PR.G: NVCC Status Confirmed and the January, February, March and June, 2011, editions of PrefLetter for the rationale behind this analysis. (all recent editions have a short summary of the argument included in the “DeemedRetractible” section)

Note that the estimate for the time this will become effective for insurers and insurance holding companies was extended by three years in April 2013, due to the delays in OSFI’s providing clarity on the issue.

Calculations of resettable instruments are performed assuming a constant GOC-5 rate of 0.58% and a constant 3-Month Bill rate of 0.53%

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.). MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2016-9-30
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 0 (0)
Pfd-1(low) 0 (0)
Pfd-2(high) 29.2%
Pfd-2 34.7%
Pfd-2(low) 25.7%
Pfd-3(high) 1.4%
Pfd-3 4.7%
Pfd-3(low) 3.0%
Pfd-4(high) 0%
Pfd-4 0%
Pfd-4(low) 0%
Pfd-5(high) 0.7%
Pfd-5 0.0%
Cash +0.7%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.
The fund holds a position in AZP.PR.C, which is rated P-5(high) by S&P and is unrated by DBRS
A position held in INE.PR.A is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-3” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-3.
A position held in BIP.PR.A is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-2(low)” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-2(low).

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2016-09-30
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 11.3%
$50,000 – $100,000 46.5%
$100,000 – $200,000 32.5%
$200,000 – $300,000 3.0%
>$300,000 6.0%
Cash +0.7%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available the fund’s web page. The fund may be purchased either directly from Hymas Investment Management or through a brokerage account at Odlum Brown Limited. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission). Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

A similar portfolio composition analysis has been performed on the Claymore Preferred Share ETF (symbol CPD) (and other funds) as of August 31, 2012, and published in the October (mainly methodology), November (most funds), and December (ZPR) 2012, PrefLetter. While direct comparisons are difficult due to the introduction of the DeemedRetractible class of preferred share (see above) it is fair to say:

  • MAPF credit quality is better
  • MAPF liquidity is a bit lower
  • MAPF Yield is higher
  • Weightings
    • MAPF is less exposed to Straight Perpetuals (including DeemedRetractibles)
    • MAPF is less exposed to Operating Retractibles
    • MAPF is more exposed to SplitShares
    • MAPF is less exposed to FixFloat / Floater / Ratchet
    • MAPF is overweighted in FixedResets