PrefBlog

It will be recalled that ENB.PR.F will reset at 4.689% effective June 1.

ENB.PR.F is a FixedReset, 4.00%+251, that commenced trading 2012-1-18 after being announced 2012-1-9. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps subindex on credit concerns.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., ENB.PR.F and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

Click for Big

The market appears to be relatively uninterested in floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are scattered around the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are quite different, at +1.13% and +0.72%, respectively – although these break-even rates are much closer to the market rate than has often been the case! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the ENB.PR.F FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, I recommend that holders of ENB.PR.F continue to hold the issue and not to convert.

If you do wish to convert, note that the deadline for notifying the company is 5:00 p.m. (EST) on May 17, 2018.. Brokerages and other intermediaries will normally set their internal deadlines a few days prior to this, so if you want to convert don’t waste any time! Such intermediaries may accept instructions after their internal deadline (but prior to the company deadline, of course) if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion, but this will only be done on a ‘best efforts’ basis.

I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Quadravest has announced (on May 8):

Canadian Banc Corp. (the “Company’) is pleased to announce it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus in each of the provinces of Canada with respect to an offering of Preferred Shares and Class A Shares of the Company. The offering will be co-led by National Bank Financial Inc., CIBC World Markets Inc., Scotia Capital Inc. and RBC Capital Markets, and will also include TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Industrial Alliance Securities Inc., Echelon Wealth Partners, GMP Securities L.P., Raymond James Ltd., Desjardins Securities Inc., Mackie Research Capital Corporation, and Manulife Securities Incorporated.

The Preferred Shares will be offered at a price of $10.00 per Preferred Share to yield 5% and the Class A Shares will be offered at a price of $13.35 per Class A Share to yield 10%.

The closing price on the TSX of each of the Preferred Shares and the Class A Shares on May 7, 2018 was $10.13 and $13.31, respectively.

Since inception of the Company, the aggregate dividends declared on the Preferred Shares have been $6.81 per share and the aggregate dividends declared on the Class A Shares have been $13.63 per share, for a combined total of $20.44 per unit. All distributions to date have been made in tax advantaged eligible Canadian dividends or capital gains dividends.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used by the Company to invest in a portfolio of six publicly traded Canadian Banks as follows:

Bank of Montreal Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Royal Bank of Canada
The Bank of Nova Scotia National Bank of Canada The Toronto-Dominion Bank

The Company’s investment objectives are to:

Preferred Shares:
i.provide holders with cumulative preferential floating rate monthly cash dividends at a rate per annum equal to the prevailing Canadian prime rate plus 0.75% (minimum annual rate of 5.0% and maximum annual rate of 7%) based on original issue price; and
ii.On or about December 1, 2018 or such other date as the Company may determine (the “termination date”) to pay holders the original $10 issue price of those shares.

Class A Shares:
i.provide holders with regular monthly cash distributions currently targeted to be at the annualized rate of 10% based upon the volume-weighted average trading price of the Class A Shares on the TSX for the last three trading days of the preceding month; and
ii.On the termination date to pay holders the original $15 issue price of those shares.

The sales period of this overnight offering will end at 9:00 a.m. EST on May 9, 2018. The offering is expected to close on or about May 23, 2018 and is subject to certain closing conditions including approval by the TSX.

Today, they announced:

Canadian Banc Corp. (the “Company’) is pleased to announce it has completed the overnight marketing of up to 2,915,000 Preferred Shares and up to 2,915,000 Class A Shares of the Company. Total proceeds of the offering are expected to be approximately $68.1 million.

The offering is being co-led by National Bank Financial Inc., CIBC World Markets Inc., Scotia Capital Inc. and RBC Capital Markets, and will also include TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Industrial Alliance Securities Inc., Echelon Wealth Partners, GMP Securities L.P., Raymond James Ltd., Desjardins Securities Inc., Mackie Research Capital Corporation, and Manulife Securities Incorporated.

The sales period of the overnight offering has now ended.

The offering is expected to close on or about May 23, 2018 and is subject to certain closing conditions including approval by the TSX.

The NAVPU was 22.08 as of April 30 and the Whole Units went for 23.35, a premium of just under 6%. Not a record, but not bad at all!

Given that there were 8,265,657 units outstanding as of April 30, and (up to) 2,915,000 units issued in this offering, this represents a nice liquidity boost for the preferreds. I think they have to say “up to” because purchasers have right of recision, but … I’m not a securities lawyer, so don’t take my thoughts on such matters too seriously!