Issue Comments

CWB.PR.D Reprices Extant Issues on Decent Volume

Canadian Western Bank has announced:

that it has closed its domestic public offering of non-cumulative 5-year rate reset First Preferred Shares Series 9 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 9 Preferred Shares”). CWB issued 5,000,000 Series 9 Preferred Shares at a price of $25 per share to raise gross proceeds of $125 million. The offering was underwritten on a bought deal basis by a syndicate led by National Bank Financial Inc. and BMO Capital Markets. Net proceeds from the offering will be added to CWB’s general funds and utilized for general banking purposes.

The Series 9 Preferred Shares will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange today under the ticker symbol CWB.PR.D. The Series 9 Preferred Shares were issued under a prospectus supplement dated January 22, 2019 to CWB’s short form base shelf prospectus dated January 4, 2019.

CWB.PR.D is a FixedReset, 6.00%+404, NVCC-Compliant, announced 2019-01-21. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps FixedReset-Discount subindex on credit concerns.

CWB.PR.D traded 301,959 shares today in a range of 24.61-89 before settling at 24.83-85. Vital statistics are:

CWB.PR.D FixedReset Disc YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-29
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.83
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %

There are only three CWB issues, including the new issue, so we can’t do a meaningful Implied Volatility analysis, but we can look at the comparators:

Ticker Quote Issue
Reset
Spread
Yield-to-Worst (YTW) YTW Scenario
CWB.PR.B 19.83-54 276 5.90% Limit Maturity at 19.83
CWB.PR.D 24.83-85 404 5.95% Limit Maturity at 23.09
CWB.PR.C 25.31-44 547 5.75% Call 2021-7-31 at 25.00

The new issue has caused a dramatic re-pricing of the two pre-existing issues, with CWB.PR.C down 1.29% since January 18, the last close prior to the announcement, and CWB.PR.B down a horrific 9.52%.

New Issues

New Issue: Brookfield Infrastructure Subsidiary, FixedReset, 5.85%+396M585

Brookfield Infrastructure has announced (although not yet on their website) (emphasis added):

that it has agreed to issue 4,000,000 Senior Preferred Shares, Series 1 (“Series 1 Shares”) on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank. The Series 1 Shares are being issued by BIP Investment Corporation (“BIPIC”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Brookfield Infrastructure, and will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Brookfield Infrastructure and certain of its key holding subsidiaries. The Series 1 Shares will be issued at a price of $25.00 per share, for gross proceeds of $100,000,000. Holders of the Series 1 Shares will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed dividend at a rate of 5.85% annually for the initial period ending March 31, 2024. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of: (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.96%, and (ii) 5.85%. The Series 1 Shares are redeemable by BIPIC on or after March 31, 2024.

Holders of the Series 1 Shares will have the right, at their option, to convert their Series 1 Shares into Senior Preferred Shares, Series 2 (the “Series 2 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on March 31, 2024 and on March 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of Series 2 Shares will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the 90-day Canadian Treasury Bill yield plus 3.96%.

The Series 1 Shares will be offered in all provinces and territories of Canada by way of a supplement to BIPIC’s existing short form base shelf prospectus.

The net proceeds of the issue of the Series 1 Shares will be used to fund new investments and/or for general working capital purposes. The offering of Series 1 Shares is expected to close on or about February 5, 2019.

Note the redemption terms, because this is very important. These are not redeemable only on exchange dates, they are redeemable at any time after the first exchange date. This marks a new low in the quality of the swill that gets offered to new issue investors. I do not believe this is a mere typo – though I will be checking the prospectus supplement! – because in the very next sentence the company is careful to say that conversion rights exist “on March 31, 2024 and on March 31 every five years thereafter.”

But, such is the state of investment management in Canada that there will be many who think increased opportunity for calls by the issuers is a good thing, in the charming belief that it’s good to get called out of a position.

S&P further muddies the waters (emphasis added):

S&P Global Ratings today said it assigned its ‘BBB-‘ global scale rating and ‘P-2(Low)’ Canada scale rating to BIP Investment Corp.’s (BIPIC) C$100 million proposed cumulative minimum rate reset senior preferred shares, series 1. The company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund new investments and for general working capital purposes.

We classify the series 1 preferred shares as having minimal equity content because in our view the retraction feature, which gives the investors the option to put the preferred share securities at any time, undermines the
permanence of these securities. Consequently, we will treat 100% of the principal outstanding as debt and will treat 100% of the related dividends on these securities as interest expense in our analysis.

BIPIC is a newly formed subsidiary of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BBB+/Stable/–), which will fully guarantee BIPIC’s series 1 preferred shares.

I’m not quite sure how to interpret this mention of a retraction feature. If the shares are retractible into cash at any time, then that is of course an extremely valuable feature; but if they’re only retractible into debentures, a la PVS Split Share Preferreds, then it’s worth … not so much. And if this is just a stenographical error by S&P, then it’s worth nothing! I’ll wait until the prospectus supplement is available.

The prospectus (available on SEDAR at “BIP Investment Corporation Nov 23 2018 14:13:23 ET Final short form prospectus – English PDF 826 K”, but I’m not allowed to link to it directly because Canadian regulators think you’re scum) states:

The Preference Shares of each series will rank on a parity with the Preference Shares of every other series with respect to accumulated dividends and return of capital. Each series of Preference Shares will participate rateably with every other series of Preference Shares in respect of accumulated dividends and return of capital.

So I think we can assume that distributions will be a mixture of dividends and return of capital – no ordinary income! – although that’s yet another thing I will have to check when the prospectus supplement comes out.

Update, 2019-2-1: The prospectus supplement is now available on SEDAR via a search for “BIP Investment Corporation Jan 29 2019 21:10:15 ET Prospectus (non pricing) supplement – English PDF 882 K”. The regulators won’t allow me to link to it directly, sorry. If you don’t like it, move to the States, where the SEC treats investors as having some importance.

There were three things badly in need of checking.

First, redemption. From page 16 of the PDF:

The Series 1 Shares will not be redeemable by the Corporation prior to March 31, 2024. On March 31, 2024 and on March 31 every five years thereafter (or, if such date is not a business day, the immediately following business day), and subject to the provisions of the BCBCA and certain other restrictions set out in “Description of the Series 1 Shares — Restrictions on Dividends and Retirement and Issue of Shares”, the Corporation may, at its option, on at least 30 days and not more than 60 days prior written notice, redeem all or from time to time any part of the outstanding Series 1 Shares by payment in cash of a per share sum equal to C$25.00, in each case together with all accrued and unpaid dividends up to but excluding the date fixed for redemption (less any tax required to be deducted or withheld by the Corporation).

If less than all of the outstanding Series 1 Shares are to be redeemed, the shares to be redeemed shall be selected on a pro rata basis disregarding fractions or, if such shares are at such time listed on such exchange, with the consent of the TSX, in such manner as the Board of Directors in its sole discretion may, by resolution, determine.

So Assiduous Reader dodoi‘s report of the TDDI description, which was later confirmed by Assiduous Reader prefguy is all correct – and a damn sight better than the execrable press release!

The second thing to check was the retraction terms. From page 16 of the prospectus supplement:

The Series 1 Shares may be surrendered for retraction at any time, subject to the provisions of the BCBCA and certain other restrictions set out in “Description of the Series 1 Shares — Restrictions on Dividends and Retirement and Issue of Shares”. Retraction payments for Series 1 Shares will be made on or before the 15th day of each month (the “Series 1 Retraction Payment Date”) provided the Series 1 Shares have been surrendered for retraction at least five business days (the “Series 1 Deposit Date”) before the last business day of the preceding month. If a holder makes such surrender after 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on a Series 1 Deposit Date, the retraction payment will be made on the next succeeding Series 1 Retraction Payment Date.

The Corporation will enter into a remarketing agreement (the “Series 1 Remarketing Agreement”) with a registered dealer that will provide that the registered dealer will use its commercially reasonable efforts to find purchasers for any Series 1 Shares tendered for retraction at a price that is not less than (after expenses) the Series 1 Retraction Price (as defined herein), provided that a retracting holder has not withheld consent to the sale of such Series 1 Shares. If a purchaser cannot be found pursuant to the terms of the Series 1 Remarketing Agreement or the retracting holder has withheld its consent, the retracting holder will receive, per Series 1 Share retracted, cash in an amount equal to the Series 1 Retraction Price. The “Series 1 Retraction Price” will be equal to the lesser of (i) 95% of the volume weighted average price of the Series 1 Shares on the principal exchange or market on which the Series 1 Shares are listed or quoted for trading for the three business days ending on the applicable Series 1 Deposit Date and (ii) C$23.75 (less any tax required to be deducted or withheld by the Corporation).

So this provision is not quite entirely useless, although it approaches that state. It is possible, albeit not at all probable, that something happens on the Deposit Date that really hurts the fundamentals of the company; holders will then have until 5pm to submit them for retraction at a price which can at least be guessed at (since the VWAP is determined for the three days up to and including the Deposit Date) and, possibly, completely known (for those who are able to instruct their intermediaries between the 4pm market close and the 5pm deadline).

But it’s still basically useless. At best, the retraction price is only 95% of the VWAP – in all but the most contrived circumstances, investors will be better off just selling them on the market.

For this reason, I will be ignoring this provision when specifying the issue on HIMIPref™.

The puzzle is – why include such a useless provision at all? The only publicly stated effect, so far, is that S&P won’t give the issue any equity credit, which is contrary to the company’s interest. It may be ‘some tax thing’ or it might even be a bit of flim-flam, taken with the aim of getting the issue onto lists of retractible issues (it will not appear on HIMIPref™’s list!). There are thousands and thousands of clowns out there who call themselves market professionals and rarely, if ever, do anything more than read the Bloomberg description of issue terms.

So Assiduous Reader prefhound‘s description of the feature taken from Scotia iTrade was correct, and I agree with prefguy‘s succinct “useless” summary.

The third thing to check was the tax status of the distributions. From page 26 of the PDF:

Taxable dividends received on the Shares by a holder will be included in computing the holder’s income.

In the case of a holder that is an individual, taxable dividends will be subject to the gross-up and dividend tax credit rules under the Tax Act normally applicable to taxable dividends received from a taxable Canadian corporation. Such taxable dividends will be eligible for the enhanced gross-up and dividend tax credit if the Corporation designates the taxable dividends as “eligible dividends”. There may be limitations on the Corporation’s ability to designate taxable dividends as eligible dividends.

The amount of any dividend that the Corporation elects to pay from its “capital gains dividend account” (as defined in the Tax Act) (“Capital Gains Dividend”) received by a holder of the Shares from the Corporation will be considered to be a capital gain of such holder from the disposition of capital property in the taxation year of the holder in which the Capital Gains Dividend is received.

I don’t see anything explicit about distributions being treated as a return of capital in the prospectus supplement, but I don’t know of any reason why the company couldn’t designate them as such.

Market Action

January 28, 2019

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5129 % 2,333.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5129 % 4,281.7
Floater 5.03 % 5.34 % 34,746 14.91 4 1.5129 % 2,467.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0752 % 3,212.3
SplitShare 4.92 % 4.57 % 68,625 3.98 8 0.0752 % 3,836.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0752 % 2,993.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.93 % -0.64 % 151,221 0.08 2 0.0998 % 2,876.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.64 % 5.73 % 83,313 14.24 33 0.0092 % 2,949.5
FixedReset Disc 5.17 % 5.57 % 221,601 14.54 65 -0.4640 % 2,190.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.41 % 6.45 % 89,292 8.15 27 -0.0539 % 2,934.2
FloatingReset 4.15 % 4.37 % 47,009 2.87 7 -0.3029 % 2,432.4
FixedReset Prem 5.14 % 4.63 % 255,130 2.18 17 -0.0440 % 2,517.7
FixedReset Bank Non 2.97 % 3.82 % 178,008 2.83 6 -0.0207 % 2,577.7
FixedReset Ins Non 5.12 % 7.28 % 128,919 8.22 22 -0.2725 % 2,173.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc -3.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc -2.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc -2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 14.77
Evaluated at bid price : 14.77
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non -2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.49
Bid-YTW : 8.38 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc -2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 15.08
Evaluated at bid price : 15.08
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 16.86
Evaluated at bid price : 16.86
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non -1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.01
Bid-YTW : 7.35 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Disc -1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 22.16
Evaluated at bid price : 22.65
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
PWF.PR.Q FloatingReset -1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 15.25
Evaluated at bid price : 15.25
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 12.85
Evaluated at bid price : 12.85
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.01
Bid-YTW : 8.23 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.79
Evaluated at bid price : 22.12
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.76
Bid-YTW : 8.31 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.72
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 19.81
Evaluated at bid price : 19.81
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.19
Bid-YTW : 7.29 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 18.37
Evaluated at bid price : 18.37
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 17.97
Evaluated at bid price : 17.97
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.53
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 18.66
Evaluated at bid price : 18.66
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.04
Evaluated at bid price : 20.04
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 18.60
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.52
Evaluated at bid price : 20.52
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.72
Evaluated at bid price : 20.72
Bid-YTW : 6.58 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 22.76
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.03
Evaluated at bid price : 20.03
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 13.70
Evaluated at bid price : 13.70
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
MFC.PR.R FixedReset Ins Non -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.33
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.64
Evaluated at bid price : 20.64
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.65
Bid-YTW : 9.27 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.25
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 16.99
Evaluated at bid price : 16.99
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.89
Evaluated at bid price : 22.26
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 2.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 2.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.59
Bid-YTW : 7.90 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 2.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.17
Bid-YTW : 7.28 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 2.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 16.20
Evaluated at bid price : 16.20
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 13.09
Evaluated at bid price : 13.09
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc 6.68 % Just a reversal of Friday‘s nonsense.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 18.69
Evaluated at bid price : 18.69
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %

Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.L FixedReset Disc 688,942 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset Bank Non 200,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
CM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 74,520 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 23.04
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 59,050 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 19.21
Evaluated at bid price : 19.21
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
BNS.PR.F FloatingReset 44,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.03
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
BNS.PR.G FixedReset Prem 42,520 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-07-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.16 – 23.30
Spot Rate : 2.1400
Average : 1.7039

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.16
Evaluated at bid price : 21.16
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %

BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc Quote: 16.86 – 17.48
Spot Rate : 0.6200
Average : 0.4322

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 16.86
Evaluated at bid price : 16.86
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %

TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc Quote: 22.12 – 22.70
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.4290

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 21.79
Evaluated at bid price : 22.12
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %

MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.00 – 20.53
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3914

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %

HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.15 – 19.66
Spot Rate : 0.5100
Average : 0.3836

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.02 – 20.42
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2927

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %

Issue Comments

TD.PF.L Holds Its Own on Muted Volume

The Toronto-Dominion Bank new issue closed today without a formal announcement from the company.

TD.PF.L is a FixedReset, 5.20%+327, announced 2019-01-17. It has been assigned to the FixedReset-Discount subindex.

TD.PF.L traded 688,942 shares today in a range of 24.75-92 before settling at 24.85-88. Vital statistics are:

TD.PF.L FixedReset Disc YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-28
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %

The new issue is ridiculously expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_td_190128
Click for Big

According to this analysis, the fair value of the new issue on January 28 is 22.93, down from 23.32 on January 19. Note that TD.PF.K, a FixedReset, 4.75%+259, NVCC Compliant issue that commenced trading 2018-9-13 after being announced 2018-9-4, was quoted today at 20.80-21, compared to 22.50-65 on January 19. The fair value of TD.PF.K is 20.68 on January 28, according to the analysis, compared to 21.24 on January 19; it is now merely 0.12 rich, compared to 1.26 rich on the TD.PF.L announcement date.

It’s interesting to note that the theoretical spread (on a notional non-callable perpetual resettable annuity) is just a bit more than the actual issue spread for TD.PF.L – which means that TD is basically not just getting the call options on the issue for free, they’re actually being paid to take them!

Administration

Toronto Rock Lacrosse Ticket Giveaway – Update #4

I have ten nine eight seven six pairs of Toronto Rock Lacrosse tickets to give away! Congratulations to Assiduous Reader BLANK, who won the tickets to the Feb. 1 game against the Saskatchewan Rush!

In about a week I will declare the lucky winner of the Feb 15 tickets to see Rock play San Diego. Get your requests in early!

The games take place at the Air Canada Centre Scotiabank Arena and the seats are very good. Just tell me which ones you would like and feel free to enter multiple times. A decision regarding who gets tickets will be made two weeks before each game and I will mail them to the lucky winner; while preference will be given to customers and those who tell me they’ve got a kid who plays lacrosse, anybody can win. If you win and don’t want your name publicized, that’s fine.

The games are:

Toronto Rock Lacrosse Ticket Giveaway
Date Opponent
Friday
2018-12-28
7:30pm
Georgia Swarm
Friday
2019-1-4
7:30pm
Philadelphia Wings
Friday
2019-1-18
7:30pm
Georgia Swarm
Friday
2019-2-1
7:30pm
Saskatchewan Rush
Friday
2019-2-15
7:30pm
San Diego Seals
Saturday
2019-3-16
7:00pm
Rochester Knighthawks
Saturday
2019-3-30
7:00pm
Philadelphia Wings
Friday
2019-4-5
7:30pm
Buffalo Bandits
Friday
2019-4-12
7:30pm
New England Black Wolves
???
???
???
Home Playoff Game #1
If there is one!

The games are a lot of fun. One thing that has impressed me is that these guys’ technical skills are so good they can concentrate on strategy … there are a lot fewer loose balls than I remember from my days of box lacrosse at age 10!

The play-off game? There’s no guarantee that there will be one, but you could always try your luck and ask for them.

To try your luck at receiving a pair of tickets, just eMail me or comment on this post.

*** Contest rules are subject to change without notice ***
*** I may be entirely capricious in selecting winners

Issue Comments

AQN Upgraded to Pfd-3 by DBRS

DBRS has announced that it:

upgraded the Issuer Rating and Preferred Shares rating of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (APUC or the Company) to BBB and Pdf-3 from BBB (low) and Pfd-3 (low), respectively. Both trends are Stable. The ratings reflect a significant improvement of APUC’s business risk profile following the acquisition of the Empire District Electric Company (Empire) and a successful integration of Empire into the Company’s regulated utility operations. The ratings also reflect stable and strong cash flow from its two principal subsidiaries (1) Liberty Utilities Co. (LUCo) – the guarantor of the debt issued by Liberty Utilities Finance GP1 (rated BBB (high) with Stable trends, recently confirmed by DBRS; and (2) Algonquin Power Co. (APCo; operating as Liberty Power Co., recently upgraded to BBB with Stable trends, from BBB (low) by DBRS).

APUC is a holding company with a sizable and well-diversified portfolio of low risk, regulated assets (owned by LUCo) and long-term contracted, non-regulated assets (largely owned by APCo). Regulated assets account for approximately 70% of APUC’s 2018 cash flow (pro forma) while the remaining contribution of APUC’s cash flow is from non-regulated generation assets with an average remaining contract life of approximately 14 years. APUC also has an approximate 41.5% equity investment interest in Atlantica Yield plc, which owns and operates a globally diverse, long-term contracted portfolio clean generating assets. Based on the Company’s current business strategy, DBRS expects the Company’s cash flow from regulated utilities to be in the 65% to 70% range going forward. Should the portion of the regulated cash flow decrease significantly from the current mix, it could negatively affect the current ratings.

The ratings incorporate structural subordination in that any debt issued by APUC is structurally subordinated by the debt issued by LUCo and APCo. The ratings also incorporate the regulatory risk at its regulated subsidiaries and volume and re-contracting risk at its non-regulated assets. Any adverse changes at either the regulated subsidiaries or non-regulated generation assets that may weaken the credit profile of these two main subsidiaries could have a negative impact on the ratings of APUC.

Currently, APUC does not issue long-term debt and has minimal debt at the corporate level. DBRS expects the Company to maintain its non-consolidated credit metrics at a reasonable level on a sustainable basis. Any material increases in non-consolidated leverage or a significant weakening of APUC’s cash flow-to-non-consolidated debt ratio could result in a negative rating action.

Affected issues are AQN.PR.A and AQN.PR.D

Market Action

January 25, 2019

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5140 % 2,298.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5140 % 4,217.8
Floater 5.10 % 5.42 % 35,115 14.78 4 -0.5140 % 2,430.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2867 % 3,209.9
SplitShare 4.93 % 4.50 % 71,467 3.99 8 0.2867 % 3,833.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2867 % 2,990.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.94 % -1.24 % 153,105 0.08 2 -0.2587 % 2,873.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.64 % 5.75 % 84,829 14.27 33 0.0806 % 2,949.2
FixedReset Disc 5.14 % 5.64 % 223,686 14.51 64 0.3862 % 2,200.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.40 % 6.46 % 88,766 8.16 27 0.1210 % 2,935.8
FloatingReset 4.12 % 4.40 % 48,947 2.88 7 0.2277 % 2,439.8
FixedReset Prem 5.14 % 4.44 % 257,731 2.19 17 0.3322 % 2,518.8
FixedReset Bank Non 2.98 % 3.91 % 164,825 2.84 6 0.1936 % 2,578.3
FixedReset Ins Non 5.11 % 7.16 % 131,061 8.21 22 0.4634 % 2,179.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -7.59 % A nonsensical quote provided at high cost by Nonsense Central, as the issue traded 10,050 shares today in a range of 18.80-01 before being quoted at 17.52-19.30. The closing price was 18.93.

I have not checked whether the lamentable state of the quote is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 17.52
Evaluated at bid price : 17.52
Bid-YTW : 6.13 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -3.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc -2.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.72
Evaluated at bid price : 22.11
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc -2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc -2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 16.68
Evaluated at bid price : 16.68
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset Disc -1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 18.84
Evaluated at bid price : 18.84
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.16
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 12.71
Evaluated at bid price : 12.71
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
IFC.PR.F Deemed-Retractible -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 8.10 %
EMA.PR.H FixedReset Disc -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 22.45
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 7.14 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.85
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
BAM.PF.J FixedReset Disc 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 22.97
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 17.20
Evaluated at bid price : 17.20
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 15.75
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset Prem 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.82
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.87
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.81
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 13.07
Evaluated at bid price : 13.07
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset Bank Non 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.93
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 19.05
Evaluated at bid price : 19.05
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
IFC.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.95
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 19.43
Evaluated at bid price : 19.43
Bid-YTW : 6.58 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc 1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 18.80
Evaluated at bid price : 18.80
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc 1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 19.36
Evaluated at bid price : 19.36
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc 2.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 15.08
Evaluated at bid price : 15.08
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc 2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 15.39
Evaluated at bid price : 15.39
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 13.85
Evaluated at bid price : 13.85
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Ins Non 2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 7.55 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc 3.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 19.40
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc 3.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 13.52
Evaluated at bid price : 13.52
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 4.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc 5.64 % Just a reversal of yesterday‘s nonsense.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.93
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 6.26 % Just a reversal of yesterday‘s nonsense.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.17
Bid-YTW : 8.23 %

TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc 11.40 % Just a reversal of yesterday‘s nonsense.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %

Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 78,608 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 24.68
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset Bank Non 71,052 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 1.96 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 70,960 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 69,590 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc 59,250 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 19.40
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
RY.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 56,740 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : -2.90 %
There were 35 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.52 – 19.30
Spot Rate : 1.7800
Average : 1.1823

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 17.52
Evaluated at bid price : 17.52
Bid-YTW : 6.13 %

BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.35 – 22.50
Spot Rate : 1.1500
Average : 0.6885

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %

CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.25 – 21.30
Spot Rate : 1.0500
Average : 0.6724

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 20.25
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.06 – 21.00
Spot Rate : 0.9400
Average : 0.5819

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %

TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.20 – 20.60
Spot Rate : 1.4000
Average : 1.0539

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %

TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.14 – 22.70
Spot Rate : 1.5600
Average : 1.2258

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-25
Maturity Price : 21.14
Evaluated at bid price : 21.14
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %

Market Action

January 24, 2019

explosion_190124
Click for Big

TXPR closed at 622.78, down 0.51% on the day. Volume of 3.13-million was second only to January 18 in the past thirty days. I note that yesterday the TXPR Total Return index turned negative for the month-to-date … well, it’s more negative now!

CPD closed at 12.52, down 0.08% on the day. Volume of 124,907 was mid-range in the context of the past thirty days.

ZPR closed at 10.16, down 0.20% on the day. Volume of 166,964 was mid-range in the context of the past thirty days.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3990 % 2,310.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3990 % 4,239.6
Floater 5.08 % 5.40 % 35,647 14.82 4 -0.3990 % 2,443.3
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0804 % 3,200.8
SplitShare 4.94 % 4.68 % 72,088 4.00 8 -0.0804 % 3,822.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0804 % 2,982.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.92 % -2.87 % 152,740 0.08 2 0.1195 % 2,881.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.64 % 5.76 % 85,635 14.25 33 -0.0053 % 2,946.8
FixedReset Disc 5.16 % 5.67 % 225,161 14.49 64 -1.0828 % 2,191.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.41 % 6.41 % 88,401 8.16 27 -0.1029 % 2,932.3
FloatingReset 4.13 % 4.50 % 50,966 2.88 7 -0.0379 % 2,434.3
FixedReset Prem 5.16 % 4.67 % 257,744 2.19 17 -0.1438 % 2,510.4
FixedReset Bank Non 2.99 % 3.86 % 152,613 2.84 6 0.1315 % 2,573.3
FixedReset Ins Non 5.13 % 7.16 % 135,773 8.21 22 -0.7756 % 2,169.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc -13.03 % A nonsensical quote provided at high cost by Nonsense Central, as the issue traded 63,100 shares today in a range of 21.67-93 before being quoted at 19.03-21.70. The closing price was 21.69.

I have not checked whether the lamentable state of the quote is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.03
Evaluated at bid price : 19.03
Bid-YTW : 6.14 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non -8.31 % A nonsensical quote provided at high cost by Nonsense Central, as the issue traded 6,955 shares today in a range of 18.96-48 before being quoted at 17.10-19.26. The closing price was 18.96.

I have not checked whether the lamentable state of the quote is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 8.99 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc -6.19 % A nonsensical quote provided at high cost by Nonsense Central, as the issue traded 1,920 shares today in a range of 21.90-13 before being quoted at 20.76-22.01. The closing price was 21.95.

I have not checked whether the lamentable state of the quote is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.76
Evaluated at bid price : 20.76
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %

TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -4.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc -4.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -3.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.65
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -3.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 7.61 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset Disc -3.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.41
Evaluated at bid price : 19.41
Bid-YTW : 6.27 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -2.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.25
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 6.79 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc -2.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.32
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -2.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.87
Evaluated at bid price : 20.87
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset Disc -2.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -2.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 12.85
Evaluated at bid price : 12.85
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc -2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.02
Evaluated at bid price : 17.02
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc -2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.33
Evaluated at bid price : 21.61
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.64
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc -2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc -2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 15.07
Evaluated at bid price : 15.07
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc -1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 22.12
Evaluated at bid price : 22.74
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 22.03
Evaluated at bid price : 22.58
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset Disc -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 22.15
Evaluated at bid price : 22.65
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Ins Non -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 7.81 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.95
Evaluated at bid price : 20.95
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.59
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 22.26
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.02
Evaluated at bid price : 17.02
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.55
Bid-YTW : 7.93 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.76
Evaluated at bid price : 18.76
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 7.16 %
GRP.PR.A SplitShare -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 8.17 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.51
Bid-YTW : 7.93 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 12.93
Evaluated at bid price : 12.93
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 6.32 %
MFC.PR.R FixedReset Ins Non 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.59
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
IFC.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.18
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset Prem 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.65
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc 2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.78
Evaluated at bid price : 20.78
Bid-YTW : 6.63 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc 2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.L FixedReset Bank Non 566,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 1.90 %
BMO.PR.B FixedReset Prem 231,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.53
Bid-YTW : 4.41 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset Prem 204,686 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.52
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
TD.PF.H FixedReset Prem 156,990 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
CM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 103,646 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 23.04
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset Disc 76,233 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 24.23
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
There were 43 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.03 – 21.70
Spot Rate : 2.6700
Average : 1.5085

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.03
Evaluated at bid price : 19.03
Bid-YTW : 6.14 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 17.10 – 19.26
Spot Rate : 2.1600
Average : 1.4424

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 8.99 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.00 – 21.50
Spot Rate : 1.5000
Average : 0.8940

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %

TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.10 – 22.50
Spot Rate : 1.4000
Average : 0.8594

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.76 – 22.01
Spot Rate : 1.2500
Average : 0.7975

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.76
Evaluated at bid price : 20.76
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %

TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.02 – 20.07
Spot Rate : 1.0500
Average : 0.6744

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.02
Evaluated at bid price : 19.02
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %

Issue Comments

PWF.PR.T To Reset At 4.215%

Power Financial Corporation has announced:

the applicable dividend rates on its Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series T (the “Series T shares”) and on its Non-Cumulative Floating Rate First Preferred Shares, Series U (the “Series U shares”).

With respect to any Series T shares that will remain outstanding after January 31, 2019, holders thereof will be entitled to receive quarterly fixed non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, if, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Power Financial. The dividend rate for the 5-year period from and including January 31, 2019 to but excluding January 31, 2024 will be 4.215%, being equal to the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield determined as of today plus 2.37%, in accordance with the terms of the Series T shares.

With respect to any Series U shares that may be issued on January 31, 2019, holders thereof will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, if, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Power Financial. The dividend rate for the 3-month floating rate period from and including January 31, 2019 to but excluding April 30, 2019 will be 4.040%, being equal to the 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield determined as of today plus 2.37%, calculated on the basis of the actual number of days in such quarterly period divided by 365, in accordance with the terms of the Series U shares.

Beneficial owners of Series T shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should communicate with their broker or other nominee to ensure their instructions are followed so that the registered holder of the Series T shares can meet the deadline to exercise such conversion right, which is 5:00 p.m. (EST) on January 16, 2019.

They previously announced (on December 3; emphasis added):

that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or part of the currently outstanding 8,000,000 Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series T (the “Series T shares”) on January 31, 2019. As a result, subject to certain conditions, the holders of the Series T shares have the right to convert all or part of their Series T shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate First Preferred Shares, Series U (the “Series U shares”) on January 31, 2019 (the “Conversion Date”) in accordance with the prospectus supplement dated December 4, 2013.

Holders of Series T shares who do not exercise their right to convert their Series T shares into Series U shares on the Conversion Date will retain their Series T shares.

The dividend rate applicable to the Series T shares for the 5-year period from January 31, 2019 to but excluding January 31, 2024, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series U shares for the 3-month period from January 31, 2019 to but excluding April 30, 2019, will be determined and announced by way of a news release on January 2, 2019.

Beneficial owners of Series T shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should communicate with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right during the conversion period, which will run from January 2, 2019 until January 16, 2019 at 5:00 p.m. (EST).

The foregoing conversion rights are subject to the conditions that: (i) if Power Financial determines that there would remain outstanding on the Conversion Date less than 1,000,000 Series U shares, after having taken into account all Series T shares tendered for conversion into Series U shares, then holders of Series T shares will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series U shares, and (ii) alternatively, if Power Financial determines that there would remain outstanding on the Conversion Date less than 1,000,000 Series T shares, after having taken into account all Series T shares tendered for conversion into Series U shares, then all remaining Series T shares will automatically be converted into Series U shares without the consent of the holders, on a one-for-one basis, on the Conversion Date.

In either case, Power Financial will give written notice to that effect to the registered holder of Series T shares no later than January 24, 2019.

PWF.PR.T is a FixedReset, 4.20%+237, that commenced trading 2013-12-11 after being announced 2013-12-2. It is be tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset (Discount) subindex.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., PWF.PR.T and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190102
Click for Big

The market has lost its recent enthusiasm for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +1.44% and +1.38%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the PWF.PR.T FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for PWF.PR.T) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 2.00% 1.50% 1.00%
PWF.PR.T 19.07 237bp 19.22 18.73 18.23

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, PWF.PR.T. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of PWF.PR.T continue to hold the issue and not to convert, but I will wait until it’s closer to the January 16 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Issue Comments

BNS.PR.R & BNS.PR.C To Be Redeemed

The Bank of Nova Scotia has announced (on December 21):

that it intends to exercise its right to redeem all outstanding Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 22 of Scotiabank (the “Series 22 Shares”) and Non-cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 23 of Scotiabank (the “Series 23 Shares”) on January 28, 2019, at a price equal to $25.00 per share, together with all declared and unpaid dividends. Formal notice will be issued to holders of the Series 22 Shares and Series 23 Shares in accordance with the share conditions. The redemption has been approved by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

On November 27, 2018, the Board of Directors of Scotiabank announced a quarterly dividend of $0.239375 per Series 22 Share, and $0.215885 per Series 23 Share. This will be the final dividend on the Series 22 Shares and Series 23 Shares, and will be paid on the date of the redemption, January 28, 2019, to shareholders of record at the close of business on January 2, 2019. After January 28, 2019, the Series 22 Shares and Series 23 Shares will cease to be entitled to dividends.

BNS.PR.R was issued as a FixedReset, 5.00%+188, that commenced trading 2008-9-9 after being announced 2008-8-26. It was the eighth FixedReset issue. It reset to 3.83% in January 2014.

BNS.PR.C commenced trading as a FloatingReset +188 that came into being as a partial exchange from BNS.PR.R in January 2014.

These issues were not NVCC-compliant and so are considered to be more of the nature of ‘expensive debt’ rather than ‘cheap equity’ – so they are being redeemed.