July 6, 2010

There’s some interesting speculation about credit spreads:

Executives who run big companies and big funds expect to be dealing with sovereign debt problems for years to come.

That’s one of the big conclusions from a survey of executives commissioned by Royal Bank of Canada’s capital markets unit.

Some of the most striking findings were a high degree of concern that a Group of Twenty country would default in the coming three years (Italy was voted most likely), skepticism that the euro-zone would survive that period intact, and a belief that high quality corporate bonds might be safer than some government bonds.

A full 40 per cent of respondents said that they expected yields on the highest level of corporate debt to drop below yields on sovereign debt of the countries where they are based, according to the poll of about 440 executives around the world.

Geez … you mean we have to re-write the textbooks again? We haven’t even finished rewriting the sections on monetary policy!

A good day in the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 32bp and FixedResets gaining 7bp, with good volume.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.82 % 2.93 % 25,298 20.30 1 0.0000 % 2,048.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0398 % 3,098.7
Floater 2.32 % 1.97 % 47,770 22.47 4 0.0398 % 2,208.6
OpRet 4.87 % 2.85 % 76,683 0.09 11 0.1415 % 2,340.7
SplitShare 6.33 % 6.33 % 89,679 3.45 2 0.3943 % 2,191.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1415 % 2,140.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.96 % 5.70 % 120,189 1.85 4 0.1092 % 1,915.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.91 % 5.98 % 185,432 13.96 73 0.3160 % 1,823.6
FixedReset 5.36 % 3.80 % 319,266 3.49 47 0.0745 % 2,199.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.65
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 18.20
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 23.57
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
SLF.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 20.17
Evaluated at bid price : 20.17
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
CM.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.81
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 20.42
Evaluated at bid price : 20.42
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 18.95
Evaluated at bid price : 18.95
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 23.72
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
BNS.PR.X FixedReset 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.70
Bid-YTW : 3.23 %
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 21.49
Evaluated at bid price : 21.49
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
TD.PR.Q Perpetual-Discount 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 24.19
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
TD.PR.R Perpetual-Discount 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 24.22
Evaluated at bid price : 24.44
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
GWO.PR.J FixedReset 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.83
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 131,715 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 75,914 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 53,600 Scotia crossed 50,000 at 23.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.81
Evaluated at bid price : 23.09
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
SLF.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 51,607 Desjardins crossed two blocks of 10,000 each at 18.47 and 18.48. Nesbitt crossed 12,300 at 18.48.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-06
Maturity Price : 18.47
Evaluated at bid price : 18.47
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
PWF.PR.J OpRet 38,220 TD crossed 16,300 at 25.76.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-08-05
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 2.85 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 36,821 TD crossed 25,000 at 27.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.70
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
There were 37 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

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