October 17, 2013

It appears that some people are ecstatic that Armageddon has been delayed by three months:

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a record, as speculation grew that the Federal Reserve will maintain the pace of stimulus after Congress ended the budget standoff.

The S&P 500 rose 0.7 percent to 1,733.15 at 4 p.m. in New York, surpassing the previous record of 1,725.52 from Sept. 18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.18 points to 15,371.65, held down by IBM and Goldman Sachs. About 6.6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 12 percent above the three-month average.

“The taper seems a little bit further out, certainly than anybody expected eight weeks ago and maybe even just a couple of weeks ago,” Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital Inc., said in a phone interview from Greenwood, South Carolina. He helps manage $950 million. “It keeps a lid on rates and provides more liquidity for risk assets like stocks. People are back to focusing on the individual company dynamics that occur during earnings season.”

The S&P 500 gained 2.4 percent during the 16-day government closure that ended yesterday after President Barack Obama signed a bill to fund the government through Jan. 15 and extend the borrowing authority through Feb. 7.

My favourite Fed President, Richard Fisher, has some interesting views on US housing:

A top Federal Reserve official said on Thursday he is seeing fresh signs of a U.S. “housing bubble” and warned about the central bank’s ongoing purchases of mortgage-based bonds.

“I’m beginning to see signs not just in my district but across the country that we are entering, once again, a housing bubble,” Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told reporters after a speech in New York. “So that leads me … to be very cautious about our mortgage-backed securities purchase program.”

Fisher, a vocal hawk on monetary policy, repeated he would not support a reduction in the quantitative easing (QE) program at a Fed meeting later this month in large part because of the fiscal “mess” in Washington.

But citing rising year-on-year house prices in Texas cities, and elsewhere in the country, he warned that the central bank’s hyper-accommodative policies could be inflating dangerous asset price bubbles.

It was a fine day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 42bp, FixedResets gaining 5bp and DeemedRetractibles up 20bp. The Performance Highlights table is heavily skewed towards the two better classes. Volume was high, with the Volume Highlights table comprised entirely of FixedResets.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1896 % 2,449.0
FixedFloater 4.30 % 3.57 % 27,863 18.29 1 0.4089 % 3,904.8
Floater 2.76 % 2.98 % 64,182 19.78 5 0.1896 % 2,644.3
OpRet 4.62 % 2.59 % 65,012 0.61 3 -0.0642 % 2,640.8
SplitShare 4.78 % 5.28 % 61,734 3.99 6 -0.3308 % 2,938.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0642 % 2,414.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.83 % 4.16 % 108,489 0.08 7 -0.0228 % 2,280.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.59 % 158,504 14.46 30 0.4166 % 2,342.4
FixedReset 4.97 % 3.79 % 233,547 3.41 85 0.0460 % 2,442.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.14 % 4.45 % 190,418 6.85 43 0.1963 % 2,377.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.37
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 22.33
Evaluated at bid price : 22.65
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 19.55
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 23.77
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 20.65
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 20.26
Evaluated at bid price : 20.26
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 107,851 Scotia crossed 100,000 at 24.87.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 24.71
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset 106,062 Scotia crossed 37,300 at 24.50; Nesbitt crossed 63,800 at 24.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.47
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 93,020 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 25,000 and 50,000, both at 24.58. According to TMXMoney, anyway. The Financial Post report is difficult to make out.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 73,976 Scotia crossed 70,500 at 25.17.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 63,749 Scotia crossed 56,500 at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 63,545 Scotia crossed 50,000 at 24.33.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 22.89
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
There were 48 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BNA.PR.E SplitShare Quote: 24.47 – 24.87
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2807

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.47
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %

GCS.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 24.73 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1632

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.73
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 23.45 – 23.85
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.3032

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %

BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount Quote: 19.65 – 19.92
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1842

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %

TRP.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 22.01 – 22.34
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2478

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 21.60
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %

W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.71 – 24.98
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1894

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-17
Maturity Price : 24.47
Evaluated at bid price : 24.71
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %

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