The wonderful thing about trade is that it’s very difficult to go half-way:
The Ukrainian crisis is putting a strain on Russia’s $2 trillion economy, which grew 1.3 percent in 2013 after expanding 3.4 percent previous year.
…
Morgan Stanley (MS) economists Jacob Nell and Alina Slyusarchuk cut their forecast for 2014 growth to 0.8 percent from 2.5 percent according to a note to clients yesterday.“We see Russia close to recession in the first half of 2014 as a result of the Ukrainian security crisis driving higher rates and risk premia, leading to weaker consumptions and contracting investment,” they wrote.
Capital outflow from Russia may reach $70 billion in the first quarter and there is “a real risk that this could push Russia into recession,” London-based Capital Economics said in a report published yesterday.
There hasn’t been any effect on China … yet. But it will come. Mind you, I don’t expect any road to Damascus conversion by Putin – but the consequences will have an effect on his choices.
It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 17bp, FixedResets up 5bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was extremely low … all the players were reading PrefLetter!
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1561 % | 2,439.2 |
| FixedFloater | 4.76 % | 4.37 % | 37,775 | 17.65 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 3,563.8 |
| Floater | 2.98 % | 3.09 % | 52,742 | 19.52 | 4 | -0.1561 % | 2,633.7 |
| OpRet | 4.66 % | -0.03 % | 86,325 | 0.21 | 3 | -0.0129 % | 2,683.1 |
| SplitShare | 4.83 % | 4.39 % | 61,716 | 4.32 | 5 | 0.0240 % | 3,065.1 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0129 % | 2,453.4 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.62 % | -0.06 % | 93,210 | 0.08 | 11 | 0.1180 % | 2,355.2 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.45 % | 5.50 % | 124,388 | 14.49 | 26 | 0.1667 % | 2,440.1 |
| FixedReset | 4.72 % | 3.58 % | 217,184 | 6.83 | 79 | 0.0545 % | 2,503.0 |
| Deemed-Retractible | 5.06 % | 2.49 % | 158,353 | 0.29 | 42 | 0.0289 % | 2,467.0 |
| FloatingReset | 2.57 % | 2.63 % | 199,322 | 7.10 | 5 | 0.0161 % | 2,437.2 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-03-17 Maturity Price : 21.38 Evaluated at bid price : 21.70 Bid-YTW : 5.21 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| ENB.PF.A | FixedReset | 92,395 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-03-17 Maturity Price : 23.13 Evaluated at bid price : 25.03 Bid-YTW : 4.18 % |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset | 63,713 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.38 Bid-YTW : 4.15 % |
| NA.PR.S | FixedReset | 54,214 | RBC crossed 21,000 at 25.21. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-03-17 Maturity Price : 23.22 Evaluated at bid price : 25.21 Bid-YTW : 3.88 % |
| ENB.PR.N | FixedReset | 49,167 | Scotia crossed 40,000 at 24.45. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-03-17 Maturity Price : 23.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.50 Bid-YTW : 4.19 % |
| PWF.PR.G | Perpetual-Premium | 47,862 | Nesbitt crossed 30,000 at 25.30. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-04-16 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.30 Bid-YTW : -0.06 % |
| POW.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 28,569 | RBC crossed 20,200 at 23.20. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2044-03-17 Maturity Price : 22.87 Evaluated at bid price : 23.14 Bid-YTW : 5.49 % |
| There were 16 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| CGI.PR.D | SplitShare | Quote: 24.57 – 24.98 Spot Rate : 0.4100 Average : 0.2477 YTW SCENARIO |
| IAG.PR.F | Deemed-Retractible | Quote: 25.73 – 25.99 Spot Rate : 0.2600 Average : 0.1523 YTW SCENARIO |
| ELF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 23.51 – 23.94 Spot Rate : 0.4300 Average : 0.3267 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 21.58 – 21.90 Spot Rate : 0.3200 Average : 0.2259 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.Q | Deemed-Retractible | Quote: 23.95 – 24.24 Spot Rate : 0.2900 Average : 0.2048 YTW SCENARIO |
| ENB.PR.H | FixedReset | Quote: 23.20 – 23.43 Spot Rate : 0.2300 Average : 0.1470 YTW SCENARIO |