March 17, 2014

The wonderful thing about trade is that it’s very difficult to go half-way:

The Ukrainian crisis is putting a strain on Russia’s $2 trillion economy, which grew 1.3 percent in 2013 after expanding 3.4 percent previous year.

Morgan Stanley (MS) economists Jacob Nell and Alina Slyusarchuk cut their forecast for 2014 growth to 0.8 percent from 2.5 percent according to a note to clients yesterday.

“We see Russia close to recession in the first half of 2014 as a result of the Ukrainian security crisis driving higher rates and risk premia, leading to weaker consumptions and contracting investment,” they wrote.

Capital outflow from Russia may reach $70 billion in the first quarter and there is “a real risk that this could push Russia into recession,” London-based Capital Economics said in a report published yesterday.

There hasn’t been any effect on China … yet. But it will come. Mind you, I don’t expect any road to Damascus conversion by Putin – but the consequences will have an effect on his choices.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 17bp, FixedResets up 5bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was extremely low … all the players were reading PrefLetter!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1561 % 2,439.2
FixedFloater 4.76 % 4.37 % 37,775 17.65 1 0.0000 % 3,563.8
Floater 2.98 % 3.09 % 52,742 19.52 4 -0.1561 % 2,633.7
OpRet 4.66 % -0.03 % 86,325 0.21 3 -0.0129 % 2,683.1
SplitShare 4.83 % 4.39 % 61,716 4.32 5 0.0240 % 3,065.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0129 % 2,453.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % -0.06 % 93,210 0.08 11 0.1180 % 2,355.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.45 % 5.50 % 124,388 14.49 26 0.1667 % 2,440.1
FixedReset 4.72 % 3.58 % 217,184 6.83 79 0.0545 % 2,503.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 2.49 % 158,353 0.29 42 0.0289 % 2,467.0
FloatingReset 2.57 % 2.63 % 199,322 7.10 5 0.0161 % 2,437.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-03-17
Maturity Price : 21.38
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PF.A FixedReset 92,395 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-03-17
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 63,713 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.38
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 54,214 RBC crossed 21,000 at 25.21.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-03-17
Maturity Price : 23.22
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 49,167 Scotia crossed 40,000 at 24.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-03-17
Maturity Price : 23.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 47,862 Nesbitt crossed 30,000 at 25.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-16
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : -0.06 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 28,569 RBC crossed 20,200 at 23.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-03-17
Maturity Price : 22.87
Evaluated at bid price : 23.14
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
There were 16 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 24.57 – 24.98
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2477

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.57
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %

IAG.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.73 – 25.99
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1523

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.73
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %

ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.51 – 23.94
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3267

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-03-17
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 23.51
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.58 – 21.90
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2259

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-03-17
Maturity Price : 21.29
Evaluated at bid price : 21.58
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %

GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.95 – 24.24
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2048

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %

ENB.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 23.20 – 23.43
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1470

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-03-17
Maturity Price : 22.42
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %

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