June 23, 2015

It’s nice to see a hint of due process in the war on banks:

First there was one. Then three. Now the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority is facing nine lawsuits for improperly identifying traders in penalty notices, in what has quickly become a nightmare for the agency.

In a London court Thursday, the FCA faced a roomful of more than 20 lawyers protesting the reputational damage their clients suffered as a result of its failure to sufficiently disguise them in bank settlement reports. The hearing was the first in a series of headaches the FCA faces on the matter and could change the future of U.K. enforcement proceedings.

“Part of deterrence is telling the story and if you’re telling it with one hand behind your back,” because you can’t allude to individuals, it will make things difficult, said FCA Chief Executive Officer Martin Wheatley in a London interview with Bloomberg last week.

The deluge of cases comes after the FCA lost a landmark appeal in May when a judge said it failed to properly hide the identity of Achilles Macris, the former JPMorgan Chase & Co. manager of the London Whale trader, in its settlement with the bank. The FCA is seeking permission to appeal the judgment to the Supreme Court. A judge will rule as soon as Tuesday on whether the other eight pending cases can proceed before the top court makes a decision on the FCA’s Macris appeal.

If the Macris ruling stands, the FCA is faced with two choices: taking years to complete investigations to give all parties the chance to participate or publishing anodyne settlements that won’t fully explain the misconduct.

While calling someone trader A in a report might seem anonymous, insiders can often figure out who’s who by references to nicknames or even position on the floor. That can damage traders’ reputation, and their ability to get another job, said Ben Rose, a London lawyer at Hickman & Rose.

“It is imperative that regulators and prosecutors prevent ‘join-the-dots’ identification,” Rose said. Regulators must “give those concerned a proper opportunity of being heard before any damaging accusations are made.”

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners L.P., proud (indirect) issuer of BRF.PR.A, BRF.PR.B, BRF.PR.C, BRF.PR.E and BRF.PR.F, has announced:

that the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”) accepted notice of Brookfield Renewable Power Preferred Equity Inc.’s (“BRP Equity”) intention to commence a normal course issuer bid for its outstanding Class A Preference Shares (“Preferred Shares”). BRP Equity is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Brookfield Renewable. Brookfield Renewable believes that in the event that the Preferred Shares trade in a price range that does not fully reflect their value, the acquisition of Preferred Shares may represent an attractive use of available funds. There are currently five series of Preferred Shares outstanding.

I take issuer-bid announcements with a grain of salt, which is why this announcement isn’t getting a dedicated post. If they actually buy some, that will be news!

It was yet another poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 46bp, FixedResets down 23bp and DeemedRetractibles off 15bp. The Performance Highlights table was dominated by losers, predictably enough. Volume was slightly below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150623
Click for Big

TRP.PR.A, which resets 2019-12-31 at +192, is bid at 20.39 to be $0.96 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.86 cheap at its bid price of 16.05.

impVol_MFC_150623
Click for Big

Another excellent fit, but the numbers are perplexing. Implied Volatility for MFC continues to be a conundrum. It is still too high if we consider that NVCC rules will never apply to these issues; it is still too low if we consider them to be NVCC non-compliant issues (and therefore with Deemed Maturities in the call schedule). The lowest spread issue, MFC.PR.F, is again noticeably off the line defined by the higher-spread issues.

Most expensive is MFC.PR.J, resetting at +261bp on 2018-3-19, bid at 24.70 to be $0.53 rich, while MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, is bid at 22.39 to be $0.45 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150623
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 18.76 to be $1.30 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp 2020-3-31 is bid at 22.55 and appears to be $0.97 rich.

impVol_FTS_150623
Click for Big

FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp, and bid at 16.40, looks $0.45 cheap and resets 2020-6-1. FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp and resetting 2019-3-1, is bid at 21.44 and is $0.45 rich.

pairs_FR_150623A
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of about 0.40%, including the outliers TRP.PR.A / TRP.PR.F at -0.57% and FTS.PR.H / FTS.PR.I at +1.16%. On the junk side there are four outliers: FFH.PR.E / FFH.PR.F at -0.87%; DC.PR.B / DC.PR.D at -0.07%; BRF.PR.A / BRF.PR.B at -0.68%; and FFH.PR.C / FFH.PR.F at +1.26%.

pairs_FF_150623
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5673 % 2,247.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.5673 % 3,929.5
Floater 3.45 % 3.44 % 64,667 18.67 3 1.5673 % 2,389.1
OpRet 4.78 % -10.47 % 23,642 0.08 1 0.0000 % 2,785.6
SplitShare 4.56 % 4.48 % 66,700 3.27 3 0.3340 % 3,269.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,547.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.47 % 3.70 % 60,571 0.51 19 -0.1182 % 2,516.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.23 % 5.18 % 118,533 15.12 15 -0.4648 % 2,691.0
FixedReset 4.56 % 3.88 % 236,639 16.14 88 -0.2287 % 2,325.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.03 % 3.29 % 111,986 0.82 34 -0.1459 % 2,613.7
FloatingReset 2.49 % 2.96 % 53,738 6.10 9 -0.2750 % 2,333.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CM.PR.P FixedReset -6.04 % Not real. The day’s range for the 29,550 shares traded was 22.30-70, with a closing price of 22.33. This is simply another example either of the Exchange’s shoddy reporting or their inability to enforce market-making responsibilities.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset -2.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -2.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.75
Evaluated at bid price : 23.43
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -2.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 19.66
Evaluated at bid price : 19.66
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount -2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 23.63
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 18.76
Evaluated at bid price : 18.76
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 23.83
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.34
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 23.62
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.18
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.95
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.30
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
RY.PR.K FloatingReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 2.89 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.34
Evaluated at bid price : 22.99
Bid-YTW : 3.62 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.73
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.57
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
ENB.PF.E FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.58
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 14.67
Evaluated at bid price : 14.67
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
ENB.PF.C FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 19.67
Evaluated at bid price : 19.67
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 18.95
Evaluated at bid price : 18.95
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
ENB.PF.A FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 19.73
Evaluated at bid price : 19.73
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 3.44 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 65,900 RBC bought 41,300 from Scotia at 23.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.77
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 34,460 TD crossed 22,500 at 22.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.04
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 33,500 Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at 25.94.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.94
Bid-YTW : 3.28 %
ENB.PR.P FixedReset 33,360 TD crossed 11,600 at 18.27.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 18.20
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset 27,156 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.99
Evaluated at bid price : 24.53
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 26,250 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CM.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 21.30 – 22.30
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6112

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %

BAM.PR.C Floater Quote: 14.25 – 14.88
Spot Rate : 0.6300
Average : 0.4109

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 14.25
Evaluated at bid price : 14.25
Bid-YTW : 3.50 %

POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.68 – 26.31
Spot Rate : 0.6300
Average : 0.4221

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.68
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 14.67 – 15.15
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3094

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 14.67
Evaluated at bid price : 14.67
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %

BAM.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 22.55 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.2879

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.02
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %

PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.01 – 24.50
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3289

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-06-23
Maturity Price : 23.63
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %

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