July 28, 2015

Nothing happened today, either. BORING!

It was another rotten day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 28bp, FixedResets off 4bp and DeemedRetractibles down 19bp. The Performance Highlights table is predictably lengthy. Volume was below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150728
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 21.67 to be $0.56 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.83 cheap at its bid price of 15.50.

impVol_MFC_150728
Click for Big

Another good fit today!

Most expensive is MFC.PR.L, resetting at +216bp on 2019-6-19, bid at 22.01 to be $0.37 rich, while MFC.PR.M, resetting at +236bp on 2019-12-19, is bid at 22.32 to be $0.35 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150728
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 18.41 to be $0.85 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 22.10 and appears to be $1.26 rich.

impVol_FTS_150728
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 21.55, looks $0.90 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 20.36 and is $0.79 cheap.

pairs_FR_150728
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.01%, with one outlier above 1.00%. There are no junk outliers.

pairs_FF_150728
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2446 % 2,121.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2446 % 3,708.7
Floater 3.46 % 3.47 % 57,220 18.59 3 0.2446 % 2,254.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1070 % 2,781.1
SplitShare 4.57 % 4.91 % 62,461 3.17 3 0.1070 % 3,259.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1070 % 2,543.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.55 % 5.09 % 70,069 2.25 13 -0.1530 % 2,500.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.35 % 5.38 % 85,562 14.82 23 -0.2808 % 2,655.2
FixedReset 4.66 % 3.78 % 213,402 16.20 88 -0.0368 % 2,257.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.07 % 5.22 % 105,889 5.48 34 -0.1870 % 2,599.6
FloatingReset 2.39 % 3.17 % 43,706 6.04 10 0.4564 % 2,272.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -2.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.73
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.22
Evaluated at bid price : 22.57
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
ENB.PR.P FixedReset -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount -1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 23.49
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.16
Evaluated at bid price : 22.67
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 17.36
Evaluated at bid price : 17.36
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.02
Evaluated at bid price : 21.02
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.02
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.26
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
ENB.PR.T FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 17.30
Evaluated at bid price : 17.30
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.14
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.05
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.76
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 3.16 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.83
Evaluated at bid price : 22.11
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 16.72
Evaluated at bid price : 16.72
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.75
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.50
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 14.13
Evaluated at bid price : 14.13
Bid-YTW : 3.37 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.47
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 24.22
Evaluated at bid price : 24.51
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.43
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 15.25
Evaluated at bid price : 15.25
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 2.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 3.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 5.83 % Reverses yesterday‘s nonsense.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 17.05
Evaluated at bid price : 17.05
Bid-YTW : 3.42 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 253,521 TD crossed blocks of 150,000 shares, 40,000 and 52,200, all at 15.45.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 15.50
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset 77,136 RBC crossed 75,000 at 24.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 23.04
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 3.47 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 67,350 National bought 11,200 shares from anonymous at 15.50, then two blocks of 10,000 each and one of 25,700 from TD, all at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 15.25
Evaluated at bid price : 15.25
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 33,237 Desjardins crossed 27,100 at 15.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 15.51
Evaluated at bid price : 15.51
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset 31,537 RBC bought 12,100 from TD at 23.21.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.39
Evaluated at bid price : 23.19
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 20,156 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.91
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 3.37 %
There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PF.A FixedReset Quote: 22.05 – 22.78
Spot Rate : 0.7300
Average : 0.4805

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.71
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 3.47 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.09 – 23.69
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.3736

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.76
Evaluated at bid price : 23.09
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %

TD.PF.B FixedReset Quote: 21.95 – 22.45
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.2987

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 21.95
Bid-YTW : 3.48 %

BAM.PR.C Floater Quote: 13.12 – 13.92
Spot Rate : 0.8000
Average : 0.6261

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 13.12
Evaluated at bid price : 13.12
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 23.80 – 24.40
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.4319

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.67
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 3.41 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 21.75 – 22.29
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.4054

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %

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