December 24, 2015

Nothing happened today.

The last day of tax-loss selling season was mixed for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 5bp, FixedResets gaining 22bp and DeemedRetractibles down 11bp. A lot of churn is still revealed by the Performance Highlights table. Volume was, somewhat surprisingly, above average even though the trading day was foreshortened due to the desire of the most highly paid professionals on earth to get away early.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151224
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 18.50 to be $0.97 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $1.03 cheap at its bid price of 12.20.

impVol_MFC_151224
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.L, resetting at +216bp on 2019-6-19, bid at 19.50 to be 0.47 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 21.63 to be 0.52 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151224
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.00 to be $1.54 cheap. BAM.PF.F, resetting at +286bp on 2019-9-30 is bid at 21.72 and appears to be $1.04 rich.

impVol_FTS_151224
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 18.11, looks $0.50 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 17.20 and is $0.86 cheap.

pairs_FR_151224
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.45%, with one outlier above -0.50%. There are two junk outliers above -0.50% and one below -2.50%.

pairs_FF_151224
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.89 % 5.95 % 33,564 16.69 1 -0.7143 % 1,586.6
FixedFloater 7.18 % 6.37 % 41,170 15.78 1 0.2273 % 2,717.8
Floater 4.40 % 4.61 % 83,713 16.21 4 -0.8776 % 1,735.4
OpRet 4.86 % 4.18 % 26,414 0.67 1 0.0000 % 2,738.6
SplitShare 4.84 % 5.94 % 84,686 1.86 6 -0.2694 % 3,192.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2694 % 2,491.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.83 % 5.80 % 94,481 13.90 7 -0.1713 % 2,496.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.74 % 5.79 % 106,793 14.18 33 -0.0537 % 2,499.8
FixedReset 5.13 % 4.48 % 274,689 14.73 81 0.2177 % 2,016.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.21 % 4.81 % 135,489 5.29 33 -0.1081 % 2,572.2
FloatingReset 2.81 % 4.18 % 69,695 5.65 11 -0.5551 % 2,111.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -3.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
BNS.PR.B FloatingReset -3.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -2.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 18.25
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset -2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 19.17
Evaluated at bid price : 19.17
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 10.20
Evaluated at bid price : 10.20
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset -2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.57
Bid-YTW : 6.65 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset -2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset -2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.26
Bid-YTW : 3.62 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset -1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 3.48 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset -1.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset -1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 17.20
Evaluated at bid price : 17.20
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
PVS.PR.D SplitShare -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 6.74 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 18.42
Evaluated at bid price : 18.42
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 20.52
Evaluated at bid price : 20.52
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.46 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 10.17
Evaluated at bid price : 10.17
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.62
Bid-YTW : 6.65 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 18.11
Evaluated at bid price : 18.11
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.47
Bid-YTW : 7.28 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
BNS.PR.C FloatingReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 22.74
Evaluated at bid price : 23.11
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.26
Bid-YTW : 7.08 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 9.90
Evaluated at bid price : 9.90
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
BNS.PR.A FloatingReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.92
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.36
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.02
Bid-YTW : 10.01 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 19.10
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.80
Bid-YTW : 8.89 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 19.90
Evaluated at bid price : 19.90
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.05
Bid-YTW : 8.63 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.07
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 20.99
Evaluated at bid price : 20.99
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.36
Bid-YTW : 6.61 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 2.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 2.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.71
Bid-YTW : 7.46 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 2.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 6.61 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 3.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.72
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 3.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.72
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 3.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 12.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.00
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 3.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.80
Bid-YTW : 9.51 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 5.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 5.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 6.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 15.50
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 64,200 RBC crossed 50,000 at 21.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.63
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 34,558 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 12.20
Evaluated at bid price : 12.20
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 29,210 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset 26,664 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.82
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 25,565 Scotia crossed 10,000 at 18.72.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 18.61
Evaluated at bid price : 18.61
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 25,197 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
There were 37 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.F FixedReset Quote: 21.72 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 1.2800
Average : 0.7552

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.72
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %

NA.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 25.02 – 25.93
Spot Rate : 0.9100
Average : 0.5755

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 19.10 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 0.9000
Average : 0.5849

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 19.10
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %

BAM.PF.A FixedReset Quote: 20.52 – 21.23
Spot Rate : 0.7100
Average : 0.4419

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 20.52
Evaluated at bid price : 20.52
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 21.65 – 22.40
Spot Rate : 0.7500
Average : 0.4968

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %

W.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 24.40 – 24.95
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.3051

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-24
Maturity Price : 22.94
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %

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