Europe continues to ease monetary policy:
In the face of a global debate on whether monetary policy has lost its effectiveness and is even planting the seeds of the next crisis, the ECB has delivered a solid defense of the right and power of central banks to boost growth and inflation at will. The best that can be said for euro-area fiscal policy is that it’s not hampering the recovery, so Draghi has underlined that he won’t wait for others to act.
…
The president announced cuts to all three of the ECB’s rates, bringing the deposit rate to minus 0.4 percent, and a 20 billion-euro ($22 billion) expansion of quantitative easing that for the first time opens the door to purchases of corporate bonds. On top of that, he announced a new four-year loan program that potentially allows banks to be remunerated for taking the ECB’s money if they expand credit to the real economy, in a quartet of operations stretching to 2021.Draghi’s policy arc has been in defiance of warnings by monetary conservatives, including those in Germany’s Bundesbank since the beginning of his term, up to more recent calls by the Group of 20 nations to shift the burden of growth generation away from monetary policy and toward structural policies or more government investment.
Instead, Draghi sounded resigned when asked about euro-area fiscal policy. That domain spans countries including Spain, France and Italy that are close to their legal deficit limits, and nations that can afford to spend more — read Germany — that have promised voters they won’t do so.
Certainly the OSC is working hard to spark inflation:
The Ontario Securities Commission says its revenues will rise almost 14 per cent in its current fiscal year, leaving the regulator with a surplus of $6.6-million for the year.
The commission published details of its financial outlook Thursday for the fiscal year ending March 31, saying revenue has climbed due to fee changes introduced last year. Those fee adjustments, as well as fee increases introduced in 2013, have returned the commission to strong profitability after it recorded deficits from 2009 to 2013.
The OSC said it expects to take in revenue of $115.8-million in fiscal 2016, a 14-per-cent increase from $101.6-million in fiscal 2015. Expenses are expected to climb sharply to $109-million in the current year from $96.9-million in fiscal 2015, leaving the OSC with an anticipated surplus of $6.6-million this year, up from $4.7-million last year.
Market participants – including listed companies, investment firms and other registrants – pay participation and activity fees to the OSC, which account for more than 99 per cent of its revenue. The OSC adjusted its fee structure last year to base its participation fees on a firm’s most recent annual financial results so they closely track current market conditions.
Perhaps they now have enough to cut another cheque to their good buddies at FAIR Canada!
Canada is now a net creditor of the US – but I would really like to see some currency-adjusted figures!:
Canada is now a creditor to the U.S. for the first time on record, government data show, reflecting the northern nation’s love affair with assets south of the border.
The stock of U.S. assets held by Canadians in the fourth quarter of 2015 — everything from corporate acquisitions to portfolio investments — exceeded assets held by Americans in Canada for the first time since at least 1990, according to quarterly data published Thursday by Statistics Canada.
Easy credit, strong balance sheets, and lack of investing opportunities at home have been the main factors driving Canadian money managers and companies on a shopping spree south of the border. The value of those investments has jumped over the last couple of years as the U.S. dollar has strengthened. U.S. investors, meanwhile, haven’t been reciprocating.
…
Canada’s total net asset position with all countries rose to C$472 billion in the fourth quarter. That’s good news from a creditworthiness point of view. The more indebted a country is to foreigners the more vulnerable it is to financial shocks and Canada’s creditor status helps in times like this when financial markets are volatile, commodity prices are falling and the country is running large current account deficits.
The US is moving to get some more work out of its foreign graduates:
The federal government will publish the rule on Friday, saying that international students earning degrees in science, technology, engineering and mathematics fields in the United States will now be eligible to stay for three years of on-the-job training. This is seven months longer than under the 2008 rule it replaces for the STEM Optional Practical Training program, known as OPT. The new rule will take effect on May 10.
…
This rule is yet another flash point in the controversy over immigration reform. Industry leaders who say they are desperate for skilled talent and those defending the rights of American workers see the training program’s extension as an end-around to stalled reform. But that is all they agree upon.“It’s an ongoing assault on American workers,” said John Miano, a lawyer for a technology workers’ union in Washington State, whose lawsuit last summer was what forced the government to vacate the previous rule and create a new one, this time for public comment.
There is speculation that TransCanada is contemplating a large acquisition:
TransCanada Corp. would snap up a big chunk of the natural gas business that’s given it the most troublesome competition if it completes a speculated U.S. takeover worth more than $9-billion (U.S.).
TransCanada said on Thursday that it was in talks with a third party, but did not name it or provide any guarantees that it would clinch a deal.
The company is in talks with Houston-based Columbia Pipeline Group Inc., according to the Wall Street Journal, which cited anonymous sources. Columbia is best known for its extensive pipeline network in the Marcellus and Utica natural gas regions in the U.S. Northeast.
Merrill Lynch has come up with some interesting figures on Canadian housing turnover:
Here are three key numbers to keep in mind when you’re talking about Canada’s housing markets: 24, 17 and 10.
Those, according to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, highlight the frothy nature of real estate in British Columbia and Ontario, compared with the rest of the country.
They’re the number of existing home sales per 1,000 people.
In B.C., home to Canada’s hottest market, the ratio is 24 per 1,000 in Vancouver. In Ontario, where Toronto is also a hotbed, it’s 17. And in the rest of Canada, it’s just 10, according to the bank’s North America economist, Emanuella Enenajor.
“Although Canada’s housing market may not be in a bubble, the B.C. (British Columbia) market likely is,” Ms. Enenajor said in her report.
It was an off day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts and DeemedRetractibles both off 21bp and FixedResets down 39bp. The Performance Highlights table continues to show a lot of churn. Volume was well below average.
For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.
Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread
Here’s TRP:
TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.25 to be $1.27 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +296, is $0.84 cheap at its bid price of 11.06.
Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 17.50 to be 1.01 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.78 to be 1.11 cheap.
The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.94 to be $1.11 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255 on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.35 and appears to be $1.06 rich.
FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 15.12 looks $0.52 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp and resetting 2020-6-1, is bid at 11.09 and is $0.39 cheap.
Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.73%, with three outliers below -1.50% and one above +0.50%. Note that the range of the y-axis has changed today. There are two junk outliers below -1.50%.
Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
Ratchet | 5.11 % | 6.21 % | 12,271 | 16.42 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 1,534.4 |
FixedFloater | 7.19 % | 6.31 % | 24,098 | 15.96 | 1 | 0.1515 % | 2,766.6 |
Floater | 4.55 % | 4.77 % | 71,868 | 15.82 | 4 | -0.7646 % | 1,684.8 |
OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1939 % | 2,756.1 |
SplitShare | 4.82 % | 5.48 % | 70,996 | 2.64 | 7 | 0.1939 % | 3,225.2 |
Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1939 % | 2,516.4 |
Perpetual-Premium | 5.81 % | -0.61 % | 74,756 | 0.08 | 6 | 0.0794 % | 2,541.1 |
Perpetual-Discount | 5.72 % | 5.77 % | 96,300 | 14.18 | 33 | -0.2096 % | 2,528.0 |
FixedReset | 5.57 % | 5.19 % | 201,732 | 14.28 | 86 | -0.3913 % | 1,827.6 |
Deemed-Retractible | 5.33 % | 5.66 % | 114,768 | 5.12 | 34 | -0.2115 % | 2,553.0 |
FloatingReset | 3.09 % | 5.08 % | 40,146 | 5.45 | 16 | 0.1835 % | 1,984.6 |
Performance Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
BAM.PF.B | FixedReset | -5.59 % | Nonsensical, as the issue traded 4,725 shares in a range of 16.75-00 before closing at 16.05-17.19, 8×1. VWAP was 16.89. I have not checked whether this lamentable state of affairs is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 16.05 Evaluated at bid price : 16.05 Bid-YTW : 5.57 % |
TD.PF.C | FixedReset | -4.70 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 16.23 Evaluated at bid price : 16.23 Bid-YTW : 4.89 % |
TRP.PR.D | FixedReset | -4.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 16.12 Evaluated at bid price : 16.12 Bid-YTW : 5.12 % |
MFC.PR.M | FixedReset | -3.97 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.95 Bid-YTW : 8.80 % |
BAM.PR.X | FixedReset | -3.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 12.70 Evaluated at bid price : 12.70 Bid-YTW : 5.39 % |
TRP.PR.C | FixedReset | -2.98 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 11.06 Evaluated at bid price : 11.06 Bid-YTW : 5.16 % |
FTS.PR.H | FixedReset | -2.97 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 11.09 Evaluated at bid price : 11.09 Bid-YTW : 5.09 % |
TRP.PR.F | FloatingReset | -2.78 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 11.52 Evaluated at bid price : 11.52 Bid-YTW : 5.12 % |
HSE.PR.A | FixedReset | -2.77 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 9.14 Evaluated at bid price : 9.14 Bid-YTW : 6.84 % |
PWF.PR.T | FixedReset | -2.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 19.10 Evaluated at bid price : 19.10 Bid-YTW : 4.31 % |
TRP.PR.H | FloatingReset | -2.38 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 9.03 Evaluated at bid price : 9.03 Bid-YTW : 4.76 % |
TD.PR.Y | FixedReset | -2.27 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.28 Bid-YTW : 4.37 % |
FTS.PR.M | FixedReset | -2.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 16.60 Evaluated at bid price : 16.60 Bid-YTW : 5.13 % |
BMO.PR.Q | FixedReset | -2.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.90 Bid-YTW : 8.23 % |
FTS.PR.K | FixedReset | -1.82 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 15.12 Evaluated at bid price : 15.12 Bid-YTW : 4.94 % |
TRP.PR.A | FixedReset | -1.69 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 14.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.00 Bid-YTW : 4.94 % |
TRP.PR.G | FixedReset | -1.67 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 18.24 Evaluated at bid price : 18.24 Bid-YTW : 5.12 % |
BNS.PR.Z | FixedReset | -1.57 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.79 Bid-YTW : 7.40 % |
RY.PR.Z | FixedReset | -1.55 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 17.11 Evaluated at bid price : 17.11 Bid-YTW : 4.57 % |
TD.PR.Z | FloatingReset | -1.53 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.25 Bid-YTW : 5.08 % |
BAM.PR.R | FixedReset | -1.48 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 13.94 Evaluated at bid price : 13.94 Bid-YTW : 5.59 % |
PWF.PR.A | Floater | -1.29 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 11.50 Evaluated at bid price : 11.50 Bid-YTW : 4.14 % |
BAM.PR.B | Floater | -1.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 10.06 Evaluated at bid price : 10.06 Bid-YTW : 4.77 % |
HSE.PR.C | FixedReset | -1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 15.51 Evaluated at bid price : 15.51 Bid-YTW : 6.61 % |
MFC.PR.J | FixedReset | -1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.05 Bid-YTW : 8.74 % |
BAM.PF.E | FixedReset | -1.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 17.35 Evaluated at bid price : 17.35 Bid-YTW : 5.19 % |
BAM.PR.Z | FixedReset | -1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 17.52 Evaluated at bid price : 17.52 Bid-YTW : 5.53 % |
PWF.PR.P | FixedReset | 1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 12.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.00 Bid-YTW : 4.87 % |
GWO.PR.N | FixedReset | 1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 13.22 Bid-YTW : 10.35 % |
MFC.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.78 Bid-YTW : 8.37 % |
BNS.PR.B | FloatingReset | 1.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.87 Bid-YTW : 5.43 % |
BMO.PR.R | FloatingReset | 1.53 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.87 Bid-YTW : 4.50 % |
MFC.PR.H | FixedReset | 1.83 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.50 Bid-YTW : 7.37 % |
BNS.PR.A | FloatingReset | 1.83 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.37 Bid-YTW : 3.70 % |
CIU.PR.C | FixedReset | 2.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 10.75 Evaluated at bid price : 10.75 Bid-YTW : 4.85 % |
MFC.PR.K | FixedReset | 2.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.05 Bid-YTW : 9.24 % |
MFC.PR.F | FixedReset | 2.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.55 Bid-YTW : 11.11 % |
IAG.PR.G | FixedReset | 2.75 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.70 Bid-YTW : 7.63 % |
TD.PF.D | FixedReset | 7.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 18.54 Evaluated at bid price : 18.54 Bid-YTW : 4.81 % |
Volume Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
TD.PF.G | FixedReset | 126,731 | RBC sold 19,100 to anonymous at 25.50. Scotai crossed 50,500 at the same price. TD crossed 25,000 at the same price again. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 23.31 Evaluated at bid price : 25.50 Bid-YTW : 5.27 % |
RY.PR.R | FixedReset | 113,582 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-08-24 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.32 Bid-YTW : 5.27 % |
FTS.PR.M | FixedReset | 106,150 | Scotia crossed 99,400 at 17.15. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 16.60 Evaluated at bid price : 16.60 Bid-YTW : 5.13 % |
MFC.PR.M | FixedReset | 83,179 | Scotia crossed 74,800 at 17.80. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.95 Bid-YTW : 8.80 % |
RY.PR.Q | FixedReset | 68,036 | Scotia crossed 50,000 at 25.50. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 23.31 Evaluated at bid price : 25.51 Bid-YTW : 5.20 % |
TRP.PR.D | FixedReset | 66,637 | Desjardins crossed 50,000 at 16.90. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-10 Maturity Price : 16.12 Evaluated at bid price : 16.12 Bid-YTW : 5.12 % |
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. |
Wide Spread Highlights | ||
Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
GWO.PR.O | FloatingReset | Quote: 11.21 – 12.94 Spot Rate : 1.7300 Average : 1.2767 YTW SCENARIO |
BAM.PF.B | FixedReset | Quote: 16.05 – 17.19 Spot Rate : 1.1400 Average : 0.7419 YTW SCENARIO |
TD.PF.C | FixedReset | Quote: 16.23 – 17.14 Spot Rate : 0.9100 Average : 0.5976 YTW SCENARIO |
CM.PR.Q | FixedReset | Quote: 18.57 – 19.30 Spot Rate : 0.7300 Average : 0.4861 YTW SCENARIO |
MFC.PR.M | FixedReset | Quote: 16.95 – 17.59 Spot Rate : 0.6400 Average : 0.3982 YTW SCENARIO |
BNS.PR.Z | FixedReset | Quote: 18.79 – 19.33 Spot Rate : 0.5400 Average : 0.3473 YTW SCENARIO |
I have put quite a bit of work into this, but I am stuck. I am trying to calculate YTW for various issues. I am using your calculator in addition to my own (based on my understanding, which is likely flawed). But the results from both of these are different from those you publish here, at times by quite a bit.
As an example, you give a YTW for BNS.PR.B, a floating reset, of 5.43%. I get 4.67% and 4.89% depending on how I do it. As it is a reset, I am assuming things won’t change and using the current dividend until the call date of 1-31-2022, as it is a non NVCC bank issue.
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
@fed – are you including the capital gain in your returns when you assume it gets called in 2022? I get a yield in the high 5’s when I include that. I get a yield in the mid 4’s otherwise.
Here’s the cash flow I have (probably not right but hopefully close enough).
10/03/2016 -20.87
27/04/2016 0.135625
27/07/2016 0.135625
27/10/2016 0.135625
27/01/2017 0.135625
27/04/2017 0.135625
27/07/2017 0.135625
27/10/2017 0.135625
27/01/2018 0.135625
27/04/2018 0.135625
27/07/2018 0.135625
27/10/2018 0.135625
27/01/2019 0.135625
27/04/2019 0.135625
27/07/2019 0.135625
27/10/2019 0.135625
27/01/2020 0.135625
27/04/2020 0.135625
27/07/2020 0.135625
27/10/2020 0.135625
27/01/2021 0.135625
27/04/2021 0.135625
27/07/2021 0.135625
27/10/2021 0.135625
31/01/2022 25.14417123
XIRR = 0.056363973
I get:
2016-03-11 -20.87
2016-04-28 .135625
2016-07-28 .135625
2016-10-28 .135625
2017-01-28 .135625
2017-04-28 .135625
2017-07-28 .135625
2017-10-28 .135625
2018-01-28 .135625
2018-04-28 .135625
2018-07-28 .135625
2018-10-28 .135625
2019-01-28 .135625
2019-04-28 .135625
2019-07-28 .135625
2019-10-28 .135625
2020-01-28 .135625
2020-04-28 .135625
2020-07-28 .135625
2020-10-28 .135625
2021-01-28 .135625
2021-04-28 .135625
2021-07-28 .135625
2021-10-28 .135625
2022-01-28 .135625
2022-01-31 25.004459
XIRR = 5.63623%
I found my mistake. Thanks!
The only discrepancy now is the last dividend. Yours puts the last one in with the outstanding div due to call date. But the sum of my last div and my remainder does not add up to yours? I wonder how that (minor ) error comes about.
Thanks for your help.