US fiscal stimulus bets first increased:
Routs in global bonds and emerging markets intensified, while the dollar climbed as investors positioned for the wave of U.S. fiscal stimulus that President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to unleash.
The yield on 30-year Treasuries rose to the highest since January, with last week’s record debt selloff bleeding into Monday trading and weighing on credit markets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced to a nine-month high as the U.S. currency strengthened against most major counterparts. American stocks were little changed and shares in developing nations sank to a four-month low. Copper climbed, while oil fell with gold.
The fallout from Donald Trump’s election to the U.S. presidency showed signs of moderating in financial markets with benchmark Treasuries and emerging-market stocks advancing for the first time in a week amid a retreat in the dollar.
The yield on U.S. government bonds due in a decade fell from its highest level of the year and sovereign notes in Australia fluctuated after a three-day slide. Bloomberg’s dollar index declined for the first time since Americans voted Trump in a week ago and an MSCI gauge of emerging-market stocks rebounded from a four-month low. Gold pulled out of its steepest slide in more than a year, while zinc led a rally in industrial metals. Crude oil rose from an eight-week low as OPEC members sought to agree output quotas.
So … we’ll see! But Eric Reguly reminds us:
Mr. Trump has awakened the bond vigilantes. They can be nasty. In 1994, they battled president Bill Clinton and won. In his first term, Mr. Clinton wanted to boost spending and implement a middle-class tax cut. Investor worries about high spending sent U.S. 10-year yields above 8 per cent and Mr. Clinton was forced to dilute his domestic economic agenda.
… while Scott Barlow reports:
The five-year government of Canada yield – yes, the one that drives mortgage rates – popped above one per cent this morning after starting last week with a yield of 70 basis points.
The close for GOC-5 was 0.95%, according to Perimeter Markets Inc..
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.7360 % | 1,737.3 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.7360 % | 3,173.7 |
| Floater | 4.32 % | 4.46 % | 44,284 | 16.44 | 4 | 0.7360 % | 1,829.0 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0198 % | 2,905.5 |
| SplitShare | 4.82 % | 4.38 % | 46,483 | 4.33 | 6 | 0.0198 % | 3,469.8 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0198 % | 2,707.3 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.42 % | 5.11 % | 79,647 | 14.53 | 23 | -0.5635 % | 2,668.3 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.33 % | 5.31 % | 87,895 | 14.93 | 15 | -1.8656 % | 2,808.3 |
| FixedReset | 4.79 % | 4.39 % | 177,991 | 6.83 | 93 | -0.3901 % | 2,124.8 |
| Deemed-Retractible | 5.13 % | 5.47 % | 129,436 | 6.50 | 32 | -0.7558 % | 2,752.3 |
| FloatingReset | 2.78 % | 3.36 % | 42,448 | 4.90 | 12 | 0.4132 % | 2,329.7 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| BAM.PR.N | Perpetual-Discount | -2.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.43 Evaluated at bid price : 21.43 Bid-YTW : 5.63 % |
| MFC.PR.B | Deemed-Retractible | -2.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.08 Bid-YTW : 6.67 % |
| BAM.PF.D | Perpetual-Discount | -2.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.77 Evaluated at bid price : 22.10 Bid-YTW : 5.61 % |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | -2.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 23.10 Evaluated at bid price : 23.55 Bid-YTW : 5.19 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | -2.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.35 Evaluated at bid price : 21.35 Bid-YTW : 5.29 % |
| BAM.PF.C | Perpetual-Discount | -2.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.41 Evaluated at bid price : 21.70 Bid-YTW : 5.66 % |
| BAM.PR.M | Perpetual-Discount | -2.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.43 Evaluated at bid price : 21.43 Bid-YTW : 5.63 % |
| SLF.PR.B | Deemed-Retractible | -2.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.84 Bid-YTW : 6.29 % |
| MFC.PR.O | FixedReset | -2.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-06-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.26 Bid-YTW : 4.62 % |
| SLF.PR.A | Deemed-Retractible | -1.99 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.68 Bid-YTW : 6.35 % |
| MFC.PR.C | Deemed-Retractible | -1.93 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.30 Bid-YTW : 7.06 % |
| CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | -1.87 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 23.19 Evaluated at bid price : 23.65 Bid-YTW : 5.17 % |
| CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | -1.84 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.38 Evaluated at bid price : 21.38 Bid-YTW : 5.28 % |
| HSE.PR.A | FixedReset | -1.82 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 12.40 Evaluated at bid price : 12.40 Bid-YTW : 5.21 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Deemed-Retractible | -1.80 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.29 Bid-YTW : 6.98 % |
| GWO.PR.I | Deemed-Retractible | -1.78 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.58 Bid-YTW : 6.83 % |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset | -1.77 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.85 Bid-YTW : 7.55 % |
| FTS.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | -1.75 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 22.64 Evaluated at bid price : 22.99 Bid-YTW : 5.25 % |
| FTS.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | -1.75 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 23.32 Evaluated at bid price : 23.60 Bid-YTW : 5.28 % |
| ELF.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | -1.70 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 22.28 Evaluated at bid price : 22.55 Bid-YTW : 5.31 % |
| PWF.PR.S | Perpetual-Discount | -1.66 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 22.21 Evaluated at bid price : 22.52 Bid-YTW : 5.36 % |
| MFC.PR.N | FixedReset | -1.66 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.59 Bid-YTW : 7.11 % |
| PWF.PR.L | Perpetual-Premium | -1.63 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 23.83 Evaluated at bid price : 24.08 Bid-YTW : 5.33 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Deemed-Retractible | -1.62 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.26 Bid-YTW : 7.00 % |
| SLF.PR.E | Deemed-Retractible | -1.61 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.41 Bid-YTW : 6.95 % |
| PWF.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | -1.60 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 23.14 Evaluated at bid price : 23.40 Bid-YTW : 5.32 % |
| MFC.PR.M | FixedReset | -1.56 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.55 Bid-YTW : 7.21 % |
| MFC.PR.K | FixedReset | -1.55 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.43 Bid-YTW : 7.79 % |
| PWF.PR.F | Perpetual-Premium | -1.54 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 23.97 Evaluated at bid price : 24.22 Bid-YTW : 5.46 % |
| GWO.PR.R | Deemed-Retractible | -1.51 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.79 Bid-YTW : 6.33 % |
| POW.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | -1.48 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 23.69 Evaluated at bid price : 24.00 Bid-YTW : 5.25 % |
| SLF.PR.H | FixedReset | -1.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.28 Bid-YTW : 8.25 % |
| ELF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | -1.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 24.45 Evaluated at bid price : 24.69 Bid-YTW : 5.42 % |
| MFC.PR.H | FixedReset | -1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.87 Bid-YTW : 5.45 % |
| VNR.PR.A | FixedReset | -1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 18.97 Evaluated at bid price : 18.97 Bid-YTW : 4.95 % |
| CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Premium | -1.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 24.46 Evaluated at bid price : 24.87 Bid-YTW : 5.27 % |
| BAM.PR.R | FixedReset | -1.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 16.60 Evaluated at bid price : 16.60 Bid-YTW : 4.78 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset | -1.17 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.29 Bid-YTW : 6.72 % |
| HSE.PR.G | FixedReset | -1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.80 Evaluated at bid price : 22.13 Bid-YTW : 5.06 % |
| GWO.PR.N | FixedReset | -1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 13.76 Bid-YTW : 10.58 % |
| CU.PR.I | FixedReset | -1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2020-12-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.50 Bid-YTW : 2.88 % |
| BAM.PF.B | FixedReset | -1.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 18.77 Evaluated at bid price : 18.77 Bid-YTW : 4.87 % |
| BAM.PF.A | FixedReset | -1.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 20.23 Evaluated at bid price : 20.23 Bid-YTW : 4.82 % |
| GWO.PR.S | Deemed-Retractible | -1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.86 Bid-YTW : 5.47 % |
| TRP.PR.G | FixedReset | -1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.31 Evaluated at bid price : 21.31 Bid-YTW : 4.50 % |
| BAM.PF.H | FixedReset | -1.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2020-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.28 Bid-YTW : 3.83 % |
| W.PR.M | FixedReset | -1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-10-15 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.01 Bid-YTW : 4.40 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Deemed-Retractible | -1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.21 Bid-YTW : 6.10 % |
| IFC.PR.C | FixedReset | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.85 Bid-YTW : 6.81 % |
| NA.PR.W | FixedReset | 1.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 18.84 Evaluated at bid price : 18.84 Bid-YTW : 4.34 % |
| NA.PR.S | FixedReset | 1.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 19.36 Evaluated at bid price : 19.36 Bid-YTW : 4.39 % |
| BAM.PR.K | Floater | 1.33 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 10.70 Evaluated at bid price : 10.70 Bid-YTW : 4.46 % |
| TRP.PR.F | FloatingReset | 1.52 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 14.70 Evaluated at bid price : 14.70 Bid-YTW : 4.09 % |
| IFC.PR.D | FloatingReset | 1.82 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.55 Bid-YTW : 6.68 % |
| TRP.PR.H | FloatingReset | 2.92 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 11.27 Evaluated at bid price : 11.27 Bid-YTW : 3.90 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| TD.PF.H | FixedReset | 785,146 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-10-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.52 Bid-YTW : 4.48 % |
| BMO.PR.B | FixedReset | 281,343 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2022-02-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.59 Bid-YTW : 4.44 % |
| BNS.PR.H | FixedReset | 152,455 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2022-01-26 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.72 Bid-YTW : 4.42 % |
| FTS.PR.M | FixedReset | 105,346 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 20.20 Evaluated at bid price : 20.20 Bid-YTW : 4.38 % |
| TRP.PR.B | FixedReset | 104,800 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 12.45 Evaluated at bid price : 12.45 Bid-YTW : 4.37 % |
| BAM.PF.F | FixedReset | 79,700 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-11-14 Maturity Price : 21.45 Evaluated at bid price : 21.45 Bid-YTW : 4.55 % |
| There were 49 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| MFC.PR.O | FixedReset | Quote: 26.26 – 26.67 Spot Rate : 0.4100 Average : 0.2849 YTW SCENARIO |
| ELF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 24.69 – 24.97 Spot Rate : 0.2800 Average : 0.1722 YTW SCENARIO |
| VNR.PR.A | FixedReset | Quote: 18.97 – 19.35 Spot Rate : 0.3800 Average : 0.2829 YTW SCENARIO |
| TRP.PR.G | FixedReset | Quote: 21.31 – 21.71 Spot Rate : 0.4000 Average : 0.3256 YTW SCENARIO |
| TRP.PR.J | FixedReset | Quote: 26.18 – 26.35 Spot Rate : 0.1700 Average : 0.1025 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 23.55 – 23.74 Spot Rate : 0.1900 Average : 0.1250 YTW SCENARIO |