July 13, 2022

How ’bout that US inflation number, eh?

The Consumer Price Index rose 9.1 percent from a year ago, a 40-year high that defied expectations of moderating price pressures. Food, rent and gasoline were among the categories that recorded the biggest increases, further squeezing Americans’ budgets.

The report contained unwelcome news beyond the headline number. A core inflation index that strips out food and fuel prices — giving a sense of underlying inflation trends — remains high and came in faster than economists expected. The core index climbed 5.9 percent the year through June, barely a slowdown from 6 percent in the previous report. The core measure actually climbed 0.7 percent from May to June, more than the previous monthly increase and bad news for central bankers.

Underlying inflation, as estimated by the New York Fed, a little less severe:

  • The UIG “full data set” measure for June is currently estimated at 4.8%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
  • The “prices-only” measure for June is currently estimated at 6.0%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the current estimate for the previous month.
  • The twelve-month change in the June CPI was +9.1%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month.
    • -For June 2022, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 4.8% to 6.0% range, a slightly wider range than May, with its lower bound 0.1 percentage point lower and its upper bound 0.1 percentage point higher.

The day was enlivened by a ‘shock and awe’ BoC policy rate hike of 100bp, which didn’t affect the market so much as 75bp has been considered a certainty for some time. The preferred share market decided it was shocked by the news, but got used to it as the day wore on:

The net result was a loss of 33bp on the day.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.09%, equivalent to 7.92% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 5.23%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) remains at 270bp, the same as reported July 6.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.9021 % 2,461.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.9021 % 4,721.9
Floater 5.05 % 5.09 % 40,009 15.36 3 -0.9021 % 2,721.2
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5009 % 3,480.8
SplitShare 4.89 % 5.25 % 44,400 3.16 8 -0.5009 % 4,156.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5009 % 3,243.4
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0425 % 2,842.7
Perpetual-Discount 6.00 % 6.09 % 67,169 13.80 34 -0.0425 % 3,099.8
FixedReset Disc 4.79 % 6.46 % 114,914 13.52 56 0.1876 % 2,457.4
Insurance Straight 5.98 % 6.05 % 88,032 13.85 18 0.0000 % 3,010.3
FloatingReset 6.19 % 6.48 % 43,218 13.23 2 0.1902 % 2,564.8
FixedReset Prem 5.01 % 4.89 % 131,200 1.94 10 0.1429 % 2,600.9
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1876 % 2,512.0
FixedReset Ins Non 4.78 % 6.81 % 56,898 13.25 14 0.3881 % 2,550.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
FTS.PR.G FixedReset Disc -11.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 7.92 %
PVS.PR.J SplitShare -1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2028-02-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
PVS.PR.K SplitShare -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2029-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 20.44
Evaluated at bid price : 20.44
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 12.82
Evaluated at bid price : 12.82
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 12.85
Evaluated at bid price : 12.85
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
GWO.PR.P Insurance Straight -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 6.16 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 18.06
Evaluated at bid price : 18.06
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
IFC.PR.K Perpetual-Discount -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 21.33
Evaluated at bid price : 21.63
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 23.35
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 6.46 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 16.53
Evaluated at bid price : 16.53
Bid-YTW : 7.61 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 12.36
Evaluated at bid price : 12.36
Bid-YTW : 8.00 %
CU.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 16.36
Evaluated at bid price : 16.36
Bid-YTW : 7.59 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 18.46
Evaluated at bid price : 18.46
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 18.37
Evaluated at bid price : 18.37
Bid-YTW : 7.15 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc 1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 23.02
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset Disc 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 7.38 %
BAM.PF.J FixedReset Disc 2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 23.80
Evaluated at bid price : 24.51
Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 2.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 7.06 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc 2.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 18.17
Evaluated at bid price : 18.17
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc 114,516 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 18.17
Evaluated at bid price : 18.17
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc 73,556 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 18.79
Evaluated at bid price : 18.79
Bid-YTW : 7.30 %
CM.PR.T FixedReset Prem 63,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
NA.PR.C FixedReset Prem 56,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-11-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.77
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc 37,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.36
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 36,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 20.31
Evaluated at bid price : 20.31
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
FTS.PR.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.00 – 19.52
Spot Rate : 2.5200
Average : 1.4231

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 7.92 %

CCS.PR.C Insurance Straight Quote: 21.10 – 23.95
Spot Rate : 2.8500
Average : 1.7600

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %

MIC.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.71 – 22.53
Spot Rate : 1.8200
Average : 1.3985

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 20.71
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %

CU.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.06 – 21.99
Spot Rate : 1.9300
Average : 1.5929

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %

BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 12.85 – 14.00
Spot Rate : 1.1500
Average : 0.9418

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 12.85
Evaluated at bid price : 12.85
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %

IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 18.06 – 18.89
Spot Rate : 0.8300
Average : 0.6254

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-07-13
Maturity Price : 18.06
Evaluated at bid price : 18.06
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %

One Response to “July 13, 2022”

  1. […] PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.07%, equivalent to 7.89% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 5.26%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has narrowed slightly (and perhaps spuriously) to 265bp from the 270bp reported July 13. […]

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