The S&P Global flash composite purchasing managers output index slid 4.8 points to 47.5, the weakest reading since May 2020, the group reported Friday. Outside of the early months of the pandemic, the July figure is the weakest in data back to 2009. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The new orders gauge expanded modestly after contracting the previous month.
…
Similar results were seen in Europe. The group’s index of activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank for the first time since early 2021. Output worsened among manufacturers, while growth in the service sector came close to stalling.The US contraction was led by a steep decline in service-sector activity. The group’s services gauge slid to 47, the lowest print since May 2020. Excluding the pandemic, the July figure was the weakest in records back to 2009. Even so, firms continued to add jobs at a solid pace.
Meantime, the group’s manufacturing index eased to a two-year low of 52.3 in July. New orders shrank for a second month and employment growth slowed. Export orders also contracted as a stronger dollar and grimmer global picture weighed on foreign demand.
Lagarde now says the ECB Terminal Rate is whatever it takes:
The European Central bank will raise its interest rates until inflation falls back to its 2% target, the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with Germany’s Funke Mediengruppe published on Friday.
It was Lagarde’s strongest commitment to date to fighting inflation, which hit 8.6% in the euro zone last month, despite growing fears of a recession in the bloc as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“We will raise interest rates for as long as it takes to bring inflation back to our target,” she told the German network of newspapers.
From yesterday’s reporting, I thought the “Terminal Rate” was an ECB forecast, but it turns out that it’s just a calculated market number:
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.2890 % | 2,429.9 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.2890 % | 4,660.5 |
| Floater | 6.50 % | 6.58 % | 40,155 | 13.07 | 3 | -0.2890 % | 2,685.9 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.2636 % | 3,450.6 |
| SplitShare | 4.93 % | 5.86 % | 44,018 | 3.13 | 8 | -0.2636 % | 4,120.8 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.2636 % | 3,215.2 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0758 % | 2,830.0 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 6.02 % | 6.10 % | 71,551 | 13.74 | 34 | 0.0758 % | 3,086.0 |
| FixedReset Disc | 4.93 % | 6.26 % | 121,372 | 13.79 | 56 | 0.5978 % | 2,388.5 |
| Insurance Straight | 6.01 % | 6.10 % | 84,630 | 13.76 | 18 | 0.2734 % | 2,994.4 |
| FloatingReset | 7.20 % | 7.49 % | 44,107 | 11.94 | 2 | 0.1656 % | 2,455.3 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.11 % | 5.66 % | 127,270 | 1.91 | 10 | -0.0565 % | 2,552.5 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.5978 % | 2,441.5 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.01 % | 6.73 % | 55,962 | 13.00 | 14 | -0.0778 % | 2,435.3 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| BAM.PF.F | FixedReset Disc | -2.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 18.40 Evaluated at bid price : 18.40 Bid-YTW : 7.57 % |
| CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -2.33 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 21.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.00 Bid-YTW : 6.02 % |
| BAM.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | -1.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.63 Evaluated at bid price : 20.63 Bid-YTW : 7.05 % |
| BAM.PF.B | FixedReset Disc | -1.58 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 18.70 Evaluated at bid price : 18.70 Bid-YTW : 7.30 % |
| BAM.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | -1.40 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 21.48 Evaluated at bid price : 21.80 Bid-YTW : 6.74 % |
| BAM.PF.G | FixedReset Disc | -1.40 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 17.60 Evaluated at bid price : 17.60 Bid-YTW : 7.53 % |
| TRP.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | -1.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 12.20 Evaluated at bid price : 12.20 Bid-YTW : 7.89 % |
| BAM.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | -1.33 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 16.33 Evaluated at bid price : 16.33 Bid-YTW : 7.39 % |
| POW.PR.C | Perpetual-Discount | -1.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 23.41 Evaluated at bid price : 23.70 Bid-YTW : 6.16 % |
| NA.PR.G | FixedReset Disc | 1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 22.57 Evaluated at bid price : 23.02 Bid-YTW : 6.09 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | 1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 18.96 Evaluated at bid price : 18.96 Bid-YTW : 5.94 % |
| CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 19.10 Evaluated at bid price : 19.10 Bid-YTW : 5.99 % |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | 1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 19.91 Evaluated at bid price : 19.91 Bid-YTW : 6.07 % |
| CM.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | 1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 19.81 Evaluated at bid price : 19.81 Bid-YTW : 6.26 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.17 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 19.09 Evaluated at bid price : 19.09 Bid-YTW : 5.89 % |
| TRP.PR.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 16.20 Evaluated at bid price : 16.20 Bid-YTW : 7.79 % |
| FTS.PR.G | FixedReset Disc | 1.43 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 17.75 Evaluated at bid price : 17.75 Bid-YTW : 7.15 % |
| TD.PF.J | FixedReset Disc | 1.53 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 22.60 Evaluated at bid price : 23.20 Bid-YTW : 6.00 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.75 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 13.95 Evaluated at bid price : 13.95 Bid-YTW : 6.94 % |
| RY.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | 1.90 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.43 Evaluated at bid price : 20.43 Bid-YTW : 6.16 % |
| NA.PR.S | FixedReset Disc | 1.93 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.55 Evaluated at bid price : 20.55 Bid-YTW : 6.30 % |
| GWO.PR.P | Insurance Straight | 1.97 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 22.03 Evaluated at bid price : 22.26 Bid-YTW : 6.12 % |
| TD.PF.B | FixedReset Disc | 1.98 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.08 Evaluated at bid price : 20.08 Bid-YTW : 6.24 % |
| TD.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | 2.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.05 Evaluated at bid price : 20.05 Bid-YTW : 6.19 % |
| NA.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | 2.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 19.61 Evaluated at bid price : 19.61 Bid-YTW : 6.32 % |
| FTS.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 2.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 13.35 Evaluated at bid price : 13.35 Bid-YTW : 7.33 % |
| BAM.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 2.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 17.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.00 Bid-YTW : 6.96 % |
| BMO.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 3.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.18 Evaluated at bid price : 20.18 Bid-YTW : 6.23 % |
| TD.PF.D | FixedReset Disc | 4.80 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.75 Evaluated at bid price : 20.75 Bid-YTW : 6.33 % |
| TD.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | 6.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.41 Evaluated at bid price : 20.41 Bid-YTW : 6.10 % |
| TRP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | 10.98 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 14.65 Evaluated at bid price : 14.65 Bid-YTW : 7.89 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| TD.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | 89,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.05 Evaluated at bid price : 20.05 Bid-YTW : 6.19 % |
| CM.PR.S | FixedReset Disc | 47,500 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 22.29 Evaluated at bid price : 23.06 Bid-YTW : 5.76 % |
| BMO.PR.F | FixedReset Prem | 40,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2024-05-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.05 Bid-YTW : 5.47 % |
| MFC.PR.I | FixedReset Ins Non | 40,340 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 23.35 Evaluated at bid price : 24.44 Bid-YTW : 5.92 % |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | 34,600 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.47 Evaluated at bid price : 20.47 Bid-YTW : 6.70 % |
| TD.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | 21,400 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2052-07-22 Maturity Price : 20.41 Evaluated at bid price : 20.41 Bid-YTW : 6.10 % |
| There were 13 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| BMO.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 20.10 – 24.50 Spot Rate : 4.4000 Average : 2.4691 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 20.07 – 22.20 Spot Rate : 2.1300 Average : 1.2933 YTW SCENARIO |
| TRP.PR.E | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 16.20 – 18.00 Spot Rate : 1.8000 Average : 1.1277 YTW SCENARIO |
| FTS.PR.M | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 18.45 – 20.10 Spot Rate : 1.6500 Average : 1.0050 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.M | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 17.76 – 22.00 Spot Rate : 4.2400 Average : 3.6109 YTW SCENARIO |
| BAM.PF.B | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 18.70 – 20.00 Spot Rate : 1.3000 Average : 0.7617 YTW SCENARIO |