September 13, 2022

The US inflation number came in higher than expected:

Prices rose 8.3 percent from a year earlier, a rapid pace of increase for consumers and not as much of a slowdown as economists had expected, even as gas prices dropped and weighed on the overall numbers. At the same time, so-called core inflation re-accelerated notably in August. That measure strips out volatile food and fuel prices to give a better sense of underlying trends, and it tracks products like clothing and furniture along with an array of services.

The core gauge climbed by 6.3 percent in the year through August, compared with 5.9 percent in July. That pickup came partly because the August price gains are being measured against a relatively weak reading from the same month in 2021. When inflation is measured against a lower year-ago number, or “base,” it tends to appear faster.

But the report’s details also offered signs that underlying inflation pressures remain significant. While gas prices and used car and truck costs have begun to dip, other prices are rising fast enough to fully offset those declines: Prices climbed by 0.1 percent on a headline basis over the course of the past month as prices for meals at restaurants, rents and new vehicles picked up.

The market was flabbergasted:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1276.37 points, or 3.9 per cent, marking its worst one-day sell-off in more than two years. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index fell nearly 1.8 per cent.

Bond yields jumped and gold prices fell, battering typical investing havens when stocks turn volatile. And the Canadian dollar slipped below 76 US cents, touching its lowest level since November 2020.

U.S. financials fell 3.8 per cent and industrials fell 3.8 per cent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.2 per cent, with Apple Inc. down 5.9 per cent.

In Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank fell 2.3 per cent and Shopify Inc. fell 5.8 per cent.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 3.4 per cent, or close to its recent multiyear high of 3.48 per in mid-June (bond yields and bond prices move in opposite directions), which signals market expectations that the Fed’s battle with inflation isn’t over.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0759 % 2,531.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0759 % 4,855.2
Floater 7.24 % 7.41 % 59,920 11.90 2 -0.0759 % 2,798.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1321 % 3,456.9
SplitShare 4.92 % 5.37 % 30,415 2.98 8 0.1321 % 4,128.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1321 % 3,221.0
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.7943 % 2,791.2
Perpetual-Discount 6.10 % 6.27 % 61,293 13.43 35 -0.7943 % 3,043.6
FixedReset Disc 4.78 % 6.45 % 91,178 13.36 58 -0.7321 % 2,475.2
Insurance Straight 6.10 % 6.11 % 78,115 13.71 19 -0.5304 % 2,948.3
FloatingReset 7.87 % 8.06 % 37,844 11.37 2 0.1246 % 2,607.9
FixedReset Prem 5.15 % 5.30 % 108,938 1.77 6 -0.2779 % 2,571.0
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.7321 % 2,530.2
FixedReset Ins Non 4.85 % 6.99 % 50,564 12.98 14 -1.1141 % 2,516.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non -9.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.42
Evaluated at bid price : 20.42
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
CU.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -7.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 6.67 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -5.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 15.52
Evaluated at bid price : 15.52
Bid-YTW : 8.13 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc -3.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 23.04
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
IFC.PR.K Perpetual-Discount -2.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -2.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.27
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc -2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.68
Evaluated at bid price : 20.68
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 15.46
Evaluated at bid price : 15.46
Bid-YTW : 7.95 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 22.26
Evaluated at bid price : 23.01
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.16 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.72
Evaluated at bid price : 20.72
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 23.37
Evaluated at bid price : 24.06
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.96
Evaluated at bid price : 20.96
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.36
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
MIC.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 6.66 %
SLF.PR.C Insurance Straight -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 18.70
Evaluated at bid price : 18.70
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %
PVS.PR.H SplitShare -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2027-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset Disc -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 17.71
Evaluated at bid price : 17.71
Bid-YTW : 7.76 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 23.01
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.69
Evaluated at bid price : 20.69
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
GWO.PR.R Insurance Straight -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 6.26 %
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 22.09
Evaluated at bid price : 22.72
Bid-YTW : 6.86 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 19.35
Evaluated at bid price : 19.35
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 18.80
Evaluated at bid price : 18.80
Bid-YTW : 8.37 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.78
Evaluated at bid price : 20.78
Bid-YTW : 6.45 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.83
Evaluated at bid price : 20.83
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
MFC.PR.B Insurance Straight -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
PVS.PR.J SplitShare 2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2028-02-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 6.29 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc 38,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 21.58
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc 23,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 21.80
Evaluated at bid price : 22.08
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset Disc 22,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.56
Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
TD.PF.M FixedReset Prem 11,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 10,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.96
Evaluated at bid price : 20.96
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
There were 0 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MIC.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.75 – 28.99
Spot Rate : 8.2400
Average : 5.0093

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 6.66 %

MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.42 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 2.5800
Average : 1.5678

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 20.42
Evaluated at bid price : 20.42
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %

CU.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 18.00 – 19.67
Spot Rate : 1.6700
Average : 1.0306

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 6.67 %

BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.52 – 16.98
Spot Rate : 1.4600
Average : 0.9482

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 15.52
Evaluated at bid price : 15.52
Bid-YTW : 8.13 %

IFC.PR.I Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.36 – 24.10
Spot Rate : 1.7400
Average : 1.3389

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 22.03
Evaluated at bid price : 22.36
Bid-YTW : 6.16 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 18.60 – 24.43
Spot Rate : 5.8300
Average : 5.5821

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-09-13
Maturity Price : 18.60
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %

One Response to “September 13, 2022”

  1. Nestor says:

    a proxy for “neutral” fed policy is the 2 year rate. at 3.83% today, the fed is still massively behind the curve. restrictive would be at least 50 bpts above.
    so 4.25-4.50%. only then will they slow down “inflation”. this won’t stop until we have a very hard landing.

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