The December US inflation number was released:
Inflation continued to slow on an annual basis in December, providing welcome relief for American households and a positive development for policymakers at the Federal Reserve and White House.
The Consumer Price Index climbed by 6.5 percent in the year through last month, down from 7.1 percent in the November reading, as prices declined slightly on a monthly basis. The annual inflation rate was the slowest since October 2021, a pullback that came as gas prices dropped and airfares declined.
Economists and Fed officials are more acutely focused on a so-called core inflation measure, which removes food and fuel prices to get a sense of underlying price trends. That measure climbed by 5.7 percent in December from a year earlier, compared with 6.0 percent previously and in line with what forecasters had expected.
…
Services costs could help to keep inflation higher than normal. Wage gains are rapid, and Federal Reserve officials are worried that this will prompt service providers — like hotels and day-care centers — to keep raising prices. December’s report showed increases in prices including sporting event admissions and pet services.
But overall real wages are still in decline:
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.4 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Real average weekly earnings increased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the average workweek.
Real average hourly earnings decreased 1.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, from December 2021 to December 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 1.4 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.1-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.
The Cleveland Fed reminds me that they have a Center for Inflation Research.
And the Newn York Fed published its Underlying Inflation Gauge:
- The UIG “full data set” measure for December is currently estimated at 5.4%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
- The “prices-only” measure for December is currently estimated at 4.5%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
- The twelve-month change in the December CPI was +6.5%, a 0.6 percentage point decrease from the previous month.
- -For December 2022, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 4.5% to 5.4% range, a slightly wider range than November, because of a larger decrease in its lower bound than in its upper bound.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1.7281 % | 2,545.8 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1.7281 % | 4,882.8 |
| Floater | 8.52 % | 8.64 % | 65,860 | 10.74 | 2 | 1.7281 % | 2,814.0 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1535 % | 3,333.9 |
| SplitShare | 5.04 % | 7.15 % | 63,271 | 2.84 | 7 | -0.1535 % | 3,981.3 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1535 % | 3,106.4 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1.0189 % | 2,801.2 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 6.08 % | 6.13 % | 92,907 | 13.73 | 35 | 1.0189 % | 3,054.6 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.27 % | 7.14 % | 97,028 | 12.49 | 62 | 0.7130 % | 2,299.8 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.96 % | 6.07 % | 108,555 | 13.81 | 20 | 0.6165 % | 3,011.3 |
| FloatingReset | 9.64 % | 10.07 % | 43,765 | 9.49 | 2 | 0.2861 % | 2,560.8 |
| FixedReset Prem | 6.61 % | 6.11 % | 172,098 | 4.12 | 2 | 0.1390 % | 2,378.1 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.7130 % | 2,350.9 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.34 % | 7.11 % | 59,629 | 12.53 | 14 | 1.2490 % | 2,418.2 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | -4.55 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 21.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.00 Bid-YTW : 6.35 % |
| BMO.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | -3.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.41 Evaluated at bid price : 18.41 Bid-YTW : 7.25 % |
| IFC.PR.A | FixedReset Ins Non | -2.85 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.41 Evaluated at bid price : 18.41 Bid-YTW : 6.75 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | -1.81 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.49 Evaluated at bid price : 19.49 Bid-YTW : 6.29 % |
| PVS.PR.G | SplitShare | -1.48 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Option Certainty Maturity Date : 2026-02-28 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.35 Bid-YTW : 7.53 % |
| TD.PF.B | FixedReset Disc | -1.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.30 Evaluated at bid price : 18.30 Bid-YTW : 7.30 % |
| BIP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | -1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 17.51 Evaluated at bid price : 17.51 Bid-YTW : 9.04 % |
| MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.50 Evaluated at bid price : 19.50 Bid-YTW : 5.84 % |
| IAF.PR.B | Insurance Straight | 1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.05 Evaluated at bid price : 20.05 Bid-YTW : 5.79 % |
| RY.PR.N | Perpetual-Discount | 1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.71 Evaluated at bid price : 22.99 Bid-YTW : 5.39 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.72 Evaluated at bid price : 19.72 Bid-YTW : 5.70 % |
| PWF.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.03 Evaluated at bid price : 20.03 Bid-YTW : 6.20 % |
| CIU.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 6.15 % |
| PWF.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 7.29 % |
| BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 1.13 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 15.27 Evaluated at bid price : 15.27 Bid-YTW : 8.34 % |
| IFC.PR.I | Perpetual-Discount | 1.13 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.04 Evaluated at bid price : 22.35 Bid-YTW : 6.08 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.92 Evaluated at bid price : 18.92 Bid-YTW : 6.04 % |
| GWO.PR.T | Insurance Straight | 1.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 21.25 Evaluated at bid price : 21.25 Bid-YTW : 6.12 % |
| CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.75 Evaluated at bid price : 20.75 Bid-YTW : 6.00 % |
| GWO.PR.S | Insurance Straight | 1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 21.29 Evaluated at bid price : 21.56 Bid-YTW : 6.13 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 21.56 Evaluated at bid price : 21.56 Bid-YTW : 6.87 % |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | 1.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.75 Evaluated at bid price : 19.75 Bid-YTW : 6.11 % |
| POW.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | 1.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.77 Evaluated at bid price : 23.05 Bid-YTW : 6.10 % |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.33 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 15.96 Evaluated at bid price : 15.96 Bid-YTW : 8.59 % |
| BN.PR.N | Perpetual-Discount | 1.35 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.77 Evaluated at bid price : 18.77 Bid-YTW : 6.39 % |
| PWF.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 1.35 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 23.69 Evaluated at bid price : 24.00 Bid-YTW : 6.16 % |
| BN.PR.K | Floater | 1.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 13.24 Evaluated at bid price : 13.24 Bid-YTW : 8.64 % |
| GWO.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 12.50 Evaluated at bid price : 12.50 Bid-YTW : 7.97 % |
| BIP.PR.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.48 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 21.57 Evaluated at bid price : 21.92 Bid-YTW : 7.17 % |
| CM.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | 1.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.37 Evaluated at bid price : 18.37 Bid-YTW : 7.16 % |
| RY.PR.S | FixedReset Disc | 1.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 21.43 Evaluated at bid price : 21.75 Bid-YTW : 6.48 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.52 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 13.40 Evaluated at bid price : 13.40 Bid-YTW : 7.83 % |
| PWF.PR.S | Perpetual-Discount | 1.55 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.65 Evaluated at bid price : 19.65 Bid-YTW : 6.13 % |
| GWO.PR.R | Insurance Straight | 1.58 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.97 Evaluated at bid price : 19.97 Bid-YTW : 6.07 % |
| GWO.PR.Y | Insurance Straight | 1.60 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.05 Evaluated at bid price : 19.05 Bid-YTW : 5.96 % |
| IFC.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | 1.61 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.90 Evaluated at bid price : 18.90 Bid-YTW : 7.08 % |
| PWF.PR.R | Perpetual-Discount | 1.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.14 Evaluated at bid price : 22.42 Bid-YTW : 6.14 % |
| CU.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | 1.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.60 Evaluated at bid price : 20.60 Bid-YTW : 6.80 % |
| ELF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 1.69 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.01 Evaluated at bid price : 22.25 Bid-YTW : 6.21 % |
| TRP.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | 1.69 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 12.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.00 Bid-YTW : 8.42 % |
| PWF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 1.73 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 23.20 Evaluated at bid price : 23.50 Bid-YTW : 6.13 % |
| TRP.PR.G | FixedReset Disc | 1.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 17.30 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 8.15 % |
| IFC.PR.E | Insurance Straight | 1.79 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 21.65 Evaluated at bid price : 21.65 Bid-YTW : 6.07 % |
| MFC.PR.K | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.91 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.65 Evaluated at bid price : 18.65 Bid-YTW : 7.36 % |
| FTS.PR.M | FixedReset Disc | 1.93 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 17.95 Evaluated at bid price : 17.95 Bid-YTW : 7.75 % |
| POW.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 2.00 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.71 Evaluated at bid price : 23.00 Bid-YTW : 6.12 % |
| BN.PR.B | Floater | 2.00 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 13.25 Evaluated at bid price : 13.25 Bid-YTW : 8.64 % |
| POW.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 2.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.70 Evaluated at bid price : 20.70 Bid-YTW : 6.08 % |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 17.51 Evaluated at bid price : 17.51 Bid-YTW : 7.58 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 2.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.86 Evaluated at bid price : 19.86 Bid-YTW : 5.65 % |
| PWF.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 2.17 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.31 Evaluated at bid price : 22.58 Bid-YTW : 6.10 % |
| GWO.PR.I | Insurance Straight | 2.29 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.18 Evaluated at bid price : 19.18 Bid-YTW : 5.92 % |
| BMO.PR.Y | FixedReset Disc | 2.33 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.80 Evaluated at bid price : 19.80 Bid-YTW : 6.97 % |
| TD.PF.D | FixedReset Disc | 2.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.40 Evaluated at bid price : 20.40 Bid-YTW : 6.84 % |
| MIC.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | 2.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.25 Evaluated at bid price : 19.25 Bid-YTW : 7.09 % |
| BN.PF.I | FixedReset Disc | 2.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.53 Evaluated at bid price : 23.38 Bid-YTW : 7.11 % |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 2.57 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.73 Evaluated at bid price : 20.73 Bid-YTW : 6.00 % |
| MFC.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.73 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.06 Evaluated at bid price : 18.06 Bid-YTW : 7.37 % |
| PWF.PF.A | Perpetual-Discount | 2.75 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.70 Evaluated at bid price : 18.70 Bid-YTW : 6.04 % |
| BMO.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 2.81 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.69 Evaluated at bid price : 18.69 Bid-YTW : 7.17 % |
| CM.PR.O | FixedReset Disc | 3.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.05 Evaluated at bid price : 18.05 Bid-YTW : 7.43 % |
| TRP.PR.E | FixedReset Disc | 3.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 16.30 Evaluated at bid price : 16.30 Bid-YTW : 8.25 % |
| CM.PR.Q | FixedReset Disc | 3.88 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.10 Evaluated at bid price : 20.10 Bid-YTW : 6.88 % |
| BIK.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | 4.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2024-03-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.00 Bid-YTW : 6.05 % |
| CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 5.87 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.95 Evaluated at bid price : 18.95 Bid-YTW : 6.03 % |
| MFC.PR.M | FixedReset Ins Non | 8.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.50 Evaluated at bid price : 18.50 Bid-YTW : 7.34 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| TD.PF.I | FixedReset Prem | 90,658 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 23.03 Evaluated at bid price : 24.58 Bid-YTW : 6.32 % |
| TD.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | 69,676 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 18.52 Evaluated at bid price : 18.52 Bid-YTW : 7.14 % |
| RY.PR.J | FixedReset Disc | 35,505 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 20.15 Evaluated at bid price : 20.15 Bid-YTW : 6.97 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | 33,550 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 19.72 Evaluated at bid price : 19.72 Bid-YTW : 5.70 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 31,824 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 13.40 Evaluated at bid price : 13.40 Bid-YTW : 7.83 % |
| CM.PR.S | FixedReset Disc | 31,599 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-01-12 Maturity Price : 22.01 Evaluated at bid price : 22.55 Bid-YTW : 6.30 % |
| There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| TRP.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 12.35 – 15.25 Spot Rate : 2.9000 Average : 1.6671 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 22.58 – 25.80 Spot Rate : 3.2200 Average : 2.1351 YTW SCENARIO |
| CM.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 18.37 – 20.00 Spot Rate : 1.6300 Average : 0.9975 YTW SCENARIO |
| TD.PF.K | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 21.22 – 22.58 Spot Rate : 1.3600 Average : 0.8605 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 21.00 – 22.60 Spot Rate : 1.6000 Average : 1.1018 YTW SCENARIO |
| PVS.PR.K | SplitShare | Quote: 21.94 – 22.94 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.5943 YTW SCENARIO |