April 25, 2023

John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the New York Fed, gave a speech:

So far, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world is helping to bring a better balance between supply and demand. Inflation has declined in a number of sectors, particularly for many categories of commodities and goods.

In addition, the supply-chain bottlenecks that had constrained the supply of goods have largely dissipated. For example, the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has declined to a level that indicates supply pressures are now actually somewhat lower than normal. 3 I hear the same from business leaders from around the Federal Reserve’s Second District, who confirm that supply chains have improved considerably.

At the same time, data on rents for new leases provide early signs of slowing inflation for shelter. This is important because shelter inflation had been a significant driver of higher inflation over the past year.

However, despite the moderation of inflation, imbalances endure, with overall demand still exceeding supply in the economy. This is seen in the inflation rate for core services excluding housing, which has been running around 4-1/2 percent since last August.

Because of the lag between policy actions and their effects, it will take some time for the FOMC’s actions to bring inflation down to our 2 percent target. With inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent this year, before moving to our longer-run goal over the next two years.

Turning to GDP, the data flow for the first quarter indicates that the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. I expect real GDP to grow modestly this year as tighter monetary policy continues to take effect, with growth picking up somewhat next year.

In addition, we are beginning to see some signs of cooling in the labor market. I expect slow growth will likely lead to some softening, with unemployment gradually rising to about 4 to 4-1/2 percent over the next year.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0833 % 2,308.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0833 % 4,427.5
Floater 9.76 % 9.93 % 38,395 9.57 2 0.0833 % 2,551.6
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4413 % 3,359.7
SplitShare 5.00 % 7.16 % 45,836 2.60 7 0.4413 % 4,012.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4413 % 3,130.5
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0582 % 2,767.1
Perpetual-Discount 6.17 % 6.21 % 53,804 13.58 34 0.0582 % 3,017.4
FixedReset Disc 5.68 % 7.45 % 87,682 12.22 63 -0.3047 % 2,172.3
Insurance Straight 6.06 % 6.13 % 71,329 13.71 19 -0.1770 % 2,968.9
FloatingReset 10.37 % 10.81 % 50,755 8.91 2 -0.1684 % 2,405.8
FixedReset Prem 6.91 % 6.51 % 323,160 12.89 1 0.4348 % 2,337.6
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3047 % 2,220.5
FixedReset Ins Non 5.96 % 7.38 % 71,717 12.05 11 0.1133 % 2,339.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc -3.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc -3.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.15
Evaluated at bid price : 17.15
Bid-YTW : 7.95 %
CCS.PR.C Insurance Straight -2.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc -2.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 7.61 %
BIP.PR.B FixedReset Disc -2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 8.47 %
BN.PR.X FixedReset Disc -2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 8.45 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 13.80
Evaluated at bid price : 13.80
Bid-YTW : 8.91 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
SLF.PR.E Insurance Straight -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 12.40
Evaluated at bid price : 12.40
Bid-YTW : 8.37 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.88
Evaluated at bid price : 17.88
Bid-YTW : 7.43 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset Disc -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 16.30
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 7.99 %
BN.PF.A FixedReset Disc -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 18.60
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 8.19 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.51
Evaluated at bid price : 17.51
Bid-YTW : 7.54 %
BN.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 13.41
Evaluated at bid price : 13.41
Bid-YTW : 9.23 %
BN.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 13.85
Evaluated at bid price : 13.85
Bid-YTW : 9.09 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 7.02 %
PVS.PR.J SplitShare 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2028-02-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 7.32 %
PVS.PR.G SplitShare 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2026-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 7.33 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc 2.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 16.94
Evaluated at bid price : 16.94
Bid-YTW : 7.69 %
GWO.PR.P Insurance Straight 2.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 21.75
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 6.20 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset Disc 3.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.20
Evaluated at bid price : 17.20
Bid-YTW : 8.02 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.H FixedReset Disc 51,855 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 12.64
Evaluated at bid price : 12.64
Bid-YTW : 8.34 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 42,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc 37,965 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.70
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 7.70 %
BN.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 22,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
BN.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 19,919 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 18.83
Evaluated at bid price : 18.83
Bid-YTW : 6.52 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc 13,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.21
Evaluated at bid price : 17.21
Bid-YTW : 7.56 %
There were 3 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CCS.PR.C Insurance Straight Quote: 20.10 – 21.00
Spot Rate : 0.9000
Average : 0.6480

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %

CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.88 – 18.50
Spot Rate : 0.6200
Average : 0.3937

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.88
Evaluated at bid price : 17.88
Bid-YTW : 7.43 %

BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.60 – 19.75
Spot Rate : 1.1500
Average : 0.9485

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 18.60
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 8.19 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 18.01 – 18.60
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.4164

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 18.01
Evaluated at bid price : 18.01
Bid-YTW : 7.52 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 17.99 – 19.13
Spot Rate : 1.1400
Average : 0.9699

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.99
Evaluated at bid price : 17.99
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %

PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.15 – 17.65
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3589

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-04-25
Maturity Price : 17.15
Evaluated at bid price : 17.15
Bid-YTW : 7.95 %

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