John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the New York Fed, gave a speech:
So far, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world is helping to bring a better balance between supply and demand. Inflation has declined in a number of sectors, particularly for many categories of commodities and goods.
In addition, the supply-chain bottlenecks that had constrained the supply of goods have largely dissipated. For example, the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has declined to a level that indicates supply pressures are now actually somewhat lower than normal. 3 I hear the same from business leaders from around the Federal Reserve’s Second District, who confirm that supply chains have improved considerably.
At the same time, data on rents for new leases provide early signs of slowing inflation for shelter. This is important because shelter inflation had been a significant driver of higher inflation over the past year.
However, despite the moderation of inflation, imbalances endure, with overall demand still exceeding supply in the economy. This is seen in the inflation rate for core services excluding housing, which has been running around 4-1/2 percent since last August.
…
Because of the lag between policy actions and their effects, it will take some time for the FOMC’s actions to bring inflation down to our 2 percent target. With inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent this year, before moving to our longer-run goal over the next two years.Turning to GDP, the data flow for the first quarter indicates that the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. I expect real GDP to grow modestly this year as tighter monetary policy continues to take effect, with growth picking up somewhat next year.
In addition, we are beginning to see some signs of cooling in the labor market. I expect slow growth will likely lead to some softening, with unemployment gradually rising to about 4 to 4-1/2 percent over the next year.
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0833 % | 2,308.4 |
FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0833 % | 4,427.5 |
Floater | 9.76 % | 9.93 % | 38,395 | 9.57 | 2 | 0.0833 % | 2,551.6 |
OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4413 % | 3,359.7 |
SplitShare | 5.00 % | 7.16 % | 45,836 | 2.60 | 7 | 0.4413 % | 4,012.2 |
Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4413 % | 3,130.5 |
Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0582 % | 2,767.1 |
Perpetual-Discount | 6.17 % | 6.21 % | 53,804 | 13.58 | 34 | 0.0582 % | 3,017.4 |
FixedReset Disc | 5.68 % | 7.45 % | 87,682 | 12.22 | 63 | -0.3047 % | 2,172.3 |
Insurance Straight | 6.06 % | 6.13 % | 71,329 | 13.71 | 19 | -0.1770 % | 2,968.9 |
FloatingReset | 10.37 % | 10.81 % | 50,755 | 8.91 | 2 | -0.1684 % | 2,405.8 |
FixedReset Prem | 6.91 % | 6.51 % | 323,160 | 12.89 | 1 | 0.4348 % | 2,337.6 |
FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3047 % | 2,220.5 |
FixedReset Ins Non | 5.96 % | 7.38 % | 71,717 | 12.05 | 11 | 0.1133 % | 2,339.7 |
Performance Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
CM.PR.Q | FixedReset Disc | -3.63 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 17.80 Evaluated at bid price : 17.80 Bid-YTW : 7.68 % |
PWF.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | -3.43 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 17.15 Evaluated at bid price : 17.15 Bid-YTW : 7.95 % |
CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -2.66 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 20.10 Evaluated at bid price : 20.10 Bid-YTW : 6.30 % |
RY.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | -2.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 17.25 Evaluated at bid price : 17.25 Bid-YTW : 7.61 % |
BIP.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | -2.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 21.30 Evaluated at bid price : 21.60 Bid-YTW : 8.47 % |
BN.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | -2.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 14.50 Evaluated at bid price : 14.50 Bid-YTW : 8.45 % |
TRP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | -1.71 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 13.80 Evaluated at bid price : 13.80 Bid-YTW : 8.91 % |
POW.PR.B | Perpetual-Discount | -1.59 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 21.44 Evaluated at bid price : 21.70 Bid-YTW : 6.21 % |
SLF.PR.E | Insurance Straight | -1.45 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 19.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 5.99 % |
PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | -1.27 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 12.40 Evaluated at bid price : 12.40 Bid-YTW : 8.37 % |
CM.PR.O | FixedReset Disc | -1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 17.88 Evaluated at bid price : 17.88 Bid-YTW : 7.43 % |
FTS.PR.K | FixedReset Disc | -1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 16.30 Evaluated at bid price : 16.30 Bid-YTW : 7.99 % |
BN.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | -1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 18.60 Evaluated at bid price : 18.60 Bid-YTW : 8.19 % |
BMO.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | -1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 17.51 Evaluated at bid price : 17.51 Bid-YTW : 7.54 % |
BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | -1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 13.41 Evaluated at bid price : 13.41 Bid-YTW : 9.23 % |
BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | -1.00 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 13.85 Evaluated at bid price : 13.85 Bid-YTW : 9.09 % |
CU.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 19.75 Evaluated at bid price : 19.75 Bid-YTW : 7.02 % |
PVS.PR.J | SplitShare | 1.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2028-02-29 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.25 Bid-YTW : 7.32 % |
PVS.PR.G | SplitShare | 1.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Option Certainty Maturity Date : 2026-02-28 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.65 Bid-YTW : 7.33 % |
NA.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | 2.67 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 16.94 Evaluated at bid price : 16.94 Bid-YTW : 7.69 % |
GWO.PR.P | Insurance Straight | 2.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 21.75 Evaluated at bid price : 22.00 Bid-YTW : 6.20 % |
FTS.PR.M | FixedReset Disc | 3.93 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 17.20 Evaluated at bid price : 17.20 Bid-YTW : 8.02 % |
Volume Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
FTS.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 51,855 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 12.64 Evaluated at bid price : 12.64 Bid-YTW : 8.34 % |
CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 42,700 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 18.85 Evaluated at bid price : 18.85 Bid-YTW : 6.08 % |
NA.PR.S | FixedReset Disc | 37,965 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 17.70 Evaluated at bid price : 17.70 Bid-YTW : 7.70 % |
BN.PF.D | Perpetual-Discount | 22,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 19.15 Evaluated at bid price : 19.15 Bid-YTW : 6.48 % |
BN.PF.C | Perpetual-Discount | 19,919 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 18.83 Evaluated at bid price : 18.83 Bid-YTW : 6.52 % |
TD.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | 13,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-04-25 Maturity Price : 17.21 Evaluated at bid price : 17.21 Bid-YTW : 7.56 % |
There were 3 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. |
Wide Spread Highlights | ||
Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | Quote: 20.10 – 21.00 Spot Rate : 0.9000 Average : 0.6480 YTW SCENARIO |
CM.PR.O | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.88 – 18.50 Spot Rate : 0.6200 Average : 0.3937 YTW SCENARIO |
BIP.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 18.60 – 19.75 Spot Rate : 1.1500 Average : 0.9485 YTW SCENARIO |
MFC.PR.K | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 18.01 – 18.60 Spot Rate : 0.5900 Average : 0.4164 YTW SCENARIO |
CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 17.99 – 19.13 Spot Rate : 1.1400 Average : 0.9699 YTW SCENARIO |
PWF.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.15 – 17.65 Spot Rate : 0.5000 Average : 0.3589 YTW SCENARIO |