July 31, 2025

US inflation was announced today:

US consumers continued to spend in June, powering the economy in the process, despite tariff-related price hikes becoming more present on store shelves and online.
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The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target rate — rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, which lifted the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest since February.

Economists were expecting PCE to rise 0.3% from 0.2% in May and accelerate on an annual basis to 2.5% from the initially reported 2.3% increase (May’s annual inflation rate was revised upward to 2.4% in Thursday’s report).

The PCE price index was expected to heat up slightly in part because of rising gas prices, which had been falling for much of the year, as well as pricier goods from businesses passing along tariff-related costs to consumers.

That was indeed the case, according to Thursday’s report: Energy prices shot up 0.9% after falling 1% the month before. Goods prices rose 0.4%, the highest monthly rate since January (when prices bumped higher after holiday season discounts).

Excluding energy and food, which tend to be quite volatile, the “core” PCE index showed price hikes picked up speed in June, rising 0.3% from May (the fastest gain in four months), and holding at an annual rate of 2.8%

The TXPR price index set a new 52-week high today of 681.03 (the closing value), outpacing the 677.99 mark set yesterday. Readers who are not quite Assiduous enough might think that July has been a humdinger for performance, given the frequent new highs, but most of the improvements have been microscopic. The price index is up only 2.83% on the month – a good month, certainly, but not the hellzapoppin’ barn burner that the unwary might have been led to suspect.